Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report for Arizona is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 7% very short, 1% short, 92% adequate. Subsoil moisture 7% very short, 1% short, 92% adequate. Alfalfa hay harvest condition 54% none, 3% light, 6% moderate, 37% active. Alfalfa hay crop condition 5% fair, 61% good, 34% excellent. Barley planted 32% and emerged 31%. Durum wheat planted 47% and emerged 26%. Pasture and range condition 29% very poor, 16% poor, 38% fair, 17% good. January precipitation was mixed, with pockets of above average moisture in the northeastern and southeastern corners, while the remainder of the State recorded at or below average moisture. Average temperatures ran at or above average. Survey comments indicated ditch clean-up was done in some counties, and irrigation water had been turned on. Ranchers across several counties reported severely limited vegetation and failed crops which has resulted in herd downsizing. Supplemental feed and water were necessary to support livestock herds. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 32 percent of the State was drought free, compared with no drought free areas a year ago. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 28 percent, and severe drought (D2) at 6 percent. 

CALIFORNIA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 90% adequate and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 95% adequate and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 55% good and 45% excellent. Winter wheat condition 30% good and 70% excellent. As of February 2, Snowpack content was 7.2 inches in the Northern Sierra region, 10.1 inches in the Central Sierra region, and 11.9 inches in the Southern Sierra region. January is typically one of the wetter months for California, however this January saw about three weeks of dry weather. Winter forage planting continued throughout the month and was completed by month’s end. Winter wheat, oats, and barley were well established and growing well. Alfalfa fields continued to grow slowly. Field prep for spring and summer crops began. Winter vegetables continued to grow. Planted onions have sprouted and leaves emerged from the soil. Carrot harvest continued in the southern San Joaquin Valley but was hampered by wet weather at times, with occasional rainfall limiting field access and delaying harvest. Cauliflower, celery, garlic, and kale harvests were ongoing. While nearing the end of dormancy, almond orchards were being cleared of brush. Mummy shaking was winding down. Field crews weeded and sprayed almond orchards for pest control. Buds on almond trees were enlarging and will begin to open in February. Pre-emergent herbicides and dormant pesticides sprays were applied to fruit orchards. Stone fruit orchards were pruned throughout the month with leaf buds beginning to open by month’s end on the earliest varieties. Kiwi harvest was complete and vines were pruned. Pomegranate trees began entering dormancy and were pruned. Grape vineyards were pruned and vines were tied. Navel orange, grapefruit, pummelo, mandarin, and lemons were harvested; however wet weather and fog affected harvest conditions, rind quality, and pack out percentages. Avocados were harvested. Olive orchards continued to be pruned and cleaned. Blackberry, raspberry, blueberry and strawberry harvests were ongoing. Calving was underway and expected to continue into next month. Sheep grazed on retired cropland and on harvested grain and alfalfa fields. Conditions were ideal for pasture growth with cool, mild temperatures and some rainfall. Both irrigated and non-irrigated pastures were in good to excellent condition. 

IDAHO: The average January temperature was above normal across the State. Snowpack levels were below normal with limited precipitation. Pastures and crop fields were dry, with low soil moisture. Calving progressed well due to the mild weather, and hay stocks remained good, but producers remained concerned about the continued dryness and its potential impacts on crops and livestock if conditions did not improve. Producers transitioned from pastures and started feeding hay. Winter cutworms were observed feeding on fall wheat at lower elevations in Nez Perce County. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 27% very short, 48% short, 25% adequate. Subsoil moisture 29% very short, 53% short, 17% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 21% poor, 59% fair, 18% good, 1% excellent. Winter wheat - wind damage was 25% none, 57% light, 16% moderate, 2% severe. Winter wheat - freeze and drought damage 78% none, 20% light, 2% moderate. Winter wheat - protectiveness of snow cover 93% very poor, 1% poor, 2% fair, 4% good. Pasture and range condition 47% very poor, 24% poor, 18% fair, 10% good, 1% excellent. Livestock grazing accessibility 72% open, 11% difficult, 17% closed. Cows calved 2%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 93%. Ewes lambed 2%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 92%. January precipitation was average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran at average to well above average. Survey comments supported the noted weather information. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 43 percent of the State was drought free, compared with just over 3 percent January 28, 2025. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 13 percent, severe drought (D2) at 8 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at just over 1 percent. 

NEVADA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 35% short, 50% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 10% very short, 15% short, 70% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% very poor, 30% poor, 40% fair, 15% good, and 10% excellent. January was a dry month in Nevada with little to no precipitation. As of January 27, 45% of the State was abnormally dry, while 20% was in Moderate Drought and 1% was in Severe Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

OREGON: Temperatures were above normal throughout the State. Snowpack was below normal throughout the State. In Western Oregon, blueberry buds swelled, and agronomic crops looked good. Cool season pasture grasses resumed active growth early due to drier and warmer weather. Many deciduous shrubs and trees began to bud, and bulbs began to grow. Field activities centered on manure applications. Cows were let out during a 2 week period with low precipitation. Some fruit trees presented bud development. In north central Oregon, fall seeded crops progressed rapidly due to the rainfall and above average temperatures. Grasses greened up, and conditions were favorable for calving. Challenges like predator pressure remain on livestock operations. Snowpack was noticeably lower compared to normal years. Stripe rust symptoms were observed on susceptible varieties of soft white winter wheat. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 2% very short, 45% short, 53% adequate. Subsoil moisture 40% short, 60% adequate. Pasture and range condition 1% very poor, 8% poor, 22% fair, 69% good. Winter wheat condition 10% fair, 90% good. Hay and roughage supplies 6% short, 90% adequate, 4% surplus. Stock water supplies 5% very short, 25% short, 65% adequate, 5% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 7% fair, 47% good, 46% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 19% fair, 79% good, 2% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 83%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 45%. Cows calved 4%. Ewes lambedfarm flock 3%. Ewes lambed-range flock 2%. Mild temperatures along with a few snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of January. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Beaver, Cache, and Grand Counties noted mild and abnormally dry conditions during January, with below–normal snowpack. February 2, 2026, was 57 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Beaver County reports noted that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues. 

WASHINGTON: In Washington, January was unusually dry and warm. Western Washington observed 14 consecutive days without measurable rain, and temperatures were unseasonably warm. The dry streak ended by the end of the month. Dry January weather worsened snow water equivalent in the Cascade Range and across most of Washington. In Central Washington, farmers were worried about the impact of a lack of snow and the potential risks of drought and wildfires. Northeast Washington had the best snowpack, especially near the Canadian border. East Central and Southeast Washington were both abnormally mild and dry. There was little to no snow on the ground, with minimal in the mountains. The winter wheat crop looked good; however, producers were raising concern about the lack of moisture and the potential impact on water resources this coming spring and summer. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 43% very short, 24% short, 33% adequate. Subsoil moisture 47% very short, 28% short, 25% adequate. Winter wheat condition 13% very poor, 30% poor, 51% fair, 6% good. Cows calved 2%. Ewes lambed 4%. Livestock condition 1% poor, 16% fair, 79% good, 4% excellent. Pasture and range condition 8% very poor, 31% poor, 37% fair, 21% good, 3% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 3% short, 88% adequate, 9% surplus. Stock water supplies 18% short, 73% adequate, 9% surplus. January precipitation varied from average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran at average to well above average. Survey comments noted extreme dryness across several counties. Producer concerns centered around diminished snowpack across most mountain ranges in the State. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 18 percent of the State was drought free, compared with just under 1 percent drought free on January 28, 2025. Other drought categorizations included, abnormally dry (D0) at 44 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 21 percent, and severe drought (D2) at 17 percent.

This Week's Drought Summary (2/5)

There was a strong west-to-east temperature gradient this week, with temperatures below normal in the East, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, and above normal in the West. Precipitation was scarce across large portions of the nation, with many areas receiving less than 25% of normal precipitation. Areas of localized precipitation fell across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and the Great Lakes region. Out east, a winter storm brought snow and mixed precipitation to parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas, with locally heavy snowfall in some locations.

Across the West, snowpack remains well below the seasonal average. Even in areas that received snow, low snowpack combined with dry soils and low streamflows led to degradations across the Intermountain West. Along the West Coast, precipitation remained limited and uneven. Western Oregon saw dry and drought conditions expand toward the Pacific coast and into far south Washington and northwest California.

Elsewhere, scattered degradations occurred across the South and Southeast, where another week without precipitation added to growing precipitation deficits, except for localized areas of improvement that continued to benefit from last week’s heavy snowfall. Other isolated areas of improvement were seen in southern New Mexico and in the Midwest and Northeast.

Northeast

Cold temperatures and limited frozen precipitation led to persistent conditions across the Northeast, outside of areas of localized improvements to New York. Except for areas of lake-effect snow, the Northeast received little precipitation. In New York, longer-term indicators supported several targeted improvements where precipitation deficits and groundwater conditions showed gradual recovery. Elsewhere across the Northeast, conditions remained unchanged, though streamflows across much of the region remain below normal and soil moisture indicators are showing dry conditions at deeper layers.

Southeast

Precipitation patterns generally drove drought changes across the Southeast this week. While some areas continued to benefit from moisture that fell earlier in the winter, much of the region experienced a mostly dry and cold week. A winter storm this week did bring well-above-normal precipitation to the coastal Carolinas, much of it falling as snow. The combination of frozen precipitation and cooler temperatures limited the immediate hydrologic benefits, leaving the area unchanged.

Across the central Gulf Coast region, extending from southern Mississippi through southern Georgia and into northern Florida, conditions continued to deteriorate following another week without precipitation. A growing precipitation deficit, very low streamflows, declining soil moisture and increasing fire danger led to degradation across parts the region. Extreme drought (D3) from southern Georgia into northern Florida broadly expanded farther south across the Florida Peninsula, precipitation deficits continued to grow after missing out on meaningful precipitation. This led to one-category degradations across the central peninsula, with the introduction of severe drought conditions (D3) southeast of Tampa Bay. The southern Everglades area saw the introduction of severe drought (D3) due to extremely low groundwater levels, minimal surface water availability and elevated fire danger. Virginia remained unchanged outside of one-class degradations in the southeast, where recent precipitation was insufficient to offset longer-term deficits.

South

Drought conditions across the South generally continued to worsen this week, as much of the region received little to no precipitation. Temperatures were near to slightly above normal across large portions of the region. Outside of a few localized improvements in northeast Louisiana and southeast Mississippi from last week’s winter storm, conditions continued to degrade across most of the region. Across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, one-category degradations were seen across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and southwest Mississippi after another dry week with no meaningful precipitation. Short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow and soil moisture continues to decline, along with streamflows.

Midwest

Cold temperatures and limited frozen precipitation led to persistent conditions across the Midwest, outside of areas of localized changes. Cold conditions kept soils frozen across northern portions of the Midwest, limiting infiltration and preventing recent moisture or snowmelt from entering the hydrologic system. As a result, short-term improvements to soil moisture and streamflows were minimal. Western Michigan saw a localized improvement where another week of snowfall along the Lake Michigan shoreline, combined with improving longer-term precipitation indicators, supported modest recovery. Across parts of the western and central Midwest, minor degradations were introduced as conditions continued to dry, including the introduction of extreme drought (D3) in southwest Missouri along the Missouri-Oklahoma border. In these areas, precipitation during the past several weeks has been limited, and short- and mid-term precipitation deficits continued to grow, combined with declining soil moisture and below-normal streamflows.

High Plains

Conditions across the central and northern High Plains were mostly unchanged this week, as most of the region received little to no meaningful precipitation. Cold temperatures persisted, and where snow did fall, it remained largely frozen in place, limiting short-term benefits to soils or hydrologic conditions. Conditions across the Wyoming and Colorado Plains continued to deteriorate. Snow water equivalent (SWE) remains well below average, with SNOTEL data showing values generally in the 50 to 70 percent of median range, reflecting how snowpack continues to fall short for this time of year despite recent snowfall. Severe drought (D2) expanded from southeastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and a little into the Nebraska Panhandle. Abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D2) also expanded across portions of Kansas.

West

Across much of the West, conditions worsened, driven by a deepening snow drought, limited precipitation, and above-normal temperatures that continued to undermine snowpack development. While some mountain snowfall occurred, amounts were generally modest and failed to keep pace with early February climatological accumulation rates, causing snowpack deficits to expand across much of the region.

The Intermountain West saw conditions intensified as snow accumulation continues to fall well short of what is expected this time of the year. Numerous SNOTEL sites reported SWE below the 15th percentile, with several stations registering the lowest SWE on record for early February. These snowpack deficits were compounded by limited recent precipitation, declining soil moisture, and below-normal streamflows, particularly across northern Idaho and western Montana and extending into central and southern Montana and Wyoming. Similarly, Colorado and Utah saw conditions deteriorate as SWE levels are well below the median level along with drier soil moisture.

Across southwestern Idaho, northern Nevada and into eastern Oregon, persistent warmth, scarce precipitation, poor low-elevation snowpack, and low streamflows led to the expansion of abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions as well as the introduction of moderate drought (D2) along the Idaho-Wyoming border. SNOTEL stations in the Owyhee, Independence and Snake Mountains are reporting SWE levels between the ninth percentile to the worst on record.

Along the Pacific Coast, centered over Oregon, abnormally dry (D0) conditions expanded into southern Washington and northwestern California as the mid-winter dry spell continues, with poor snowpack development, very low streamflows, and limited soil moisture recovery outside the highest elevations (SNOTEL SWE percentile map; state precipitation and streamflow maps).

The only improvement across the West occurred in southern New Mexico, where precipitation from earlier storm systems continued to translate into measurable hydrologic response, supporting localized improvements and one-category improvements.

Caribbean

Abnormally dry conditions across Puerto Rico improved across the northern portion of the island, following heavy rainfall from a passing cold front. Rainfall was most impactful across northwestern and northeastern portions of the island, where streams ran high and rainfall deficits were erased or reduced, supporting the removal of D0 in those areas. Temperatures were near to slightly above normal.

Elsewhere across the island, conditions were held steady. In the interior, water supply concerns persist near Cidra, where Lago Cidra remains at observational levels. Across southeastern Puerto Rico, USGS-monitored wells near Salinas and Santa Isabel continue to run low, supporting no change in drought depiction for those areas.

Wet weather struck western parts of St. Croix this week, where CoCoRaHs observations suggested widespread rainfall amounts over 2 inches. In the east, this week’s weather was drier, and depth-to-water at the well monitoring site continued to drop slightly. Short-term abnormal dryness was maintained this week, though this mostly describes conditions in the east, as conditions have likely improved in western St. Croix after this week’s heavier rains. On St. John, conditions improved to short-term abnormal dryness after rainfall observations of 1.5 and 2.32 inches were reported and well depth-to-water rose slightly. Short-term moderate drought continued on St. Thomas, where rainfall observations ranged from 0.74-0.84 inches.

Pacific

Conditions worsened across parts of western Alaska this week. Temperatures were near to above normal, and while some snowfall did occur, amounts were light and uneven, providing little benefit and causing SWE to remain well below normal across affected areas.

In addition, a small area of moderate drought (D1) was introduced east of Kotzebue, where SWE was modeled at less than half of the 1991–2020 median. Elsewhere across the state, conditions were largely unchanged, though snowpack deficits continue to be monitored as the winter season progresses.

Drought conditions across Hawaii were unchanged this week. Temperatures were near to slightly above normal, and a frontal system brought light to locally moderate rainfall, generally around 0.5 to 1 inch, with the highest amounts confined to windward-facing terrain. Despite the rainfall, streamflows showed little response.

Rainfall amounts this week on Palau ranged from 1.58 inches at the National Weather Service office to 2.07 inches at Koror. While the weather has been generally drier recently, conditions are not yet in the abnormal dryness category.

At Toa Ridge, 7.37 inches of rain were reported this week, and at least 11 inches of rain fell in Pago Pago. Given the very wet weather this week, conditions remained normal in American Samoa.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Saipan received 3.49 inches of rain this week, continuing a recent wet stretch that resulted in record wetness in January after almost 10 inches of rain fell last week. In Tinian, 1.14 inches of rain were reported this week. Rota received 7.07 inches of rain this week. Guam received 2.17 inches at the National Weather Service office, while a CoCoRaHs observer near Piti (on the west coast) reported 1.88 inches of rain.

In Yap, 1.68 inches of rain fell this week, marking the third consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. However, given that January as a whole was wetter than normal, conditions have not yet fallen into abnormal dryness. In Woleai, 0.46 inches of rain were reported, though 3 days were missing from this week’s data. Three of the previous four weeks also had over 2 inches of rainfall, so conditions remained normal. In Chuuk, 1.41 inches of rain fell this week, marking the second week in a row with under 2 inches of rain. The previous 2 weeks were much wetter, though, so conditions remained normal. In Lukunor, 0.94 inches of rain fell this week, continuing a recent mainly drier pattern. However, given that over 4 inches of rain fell a couple weeks ago, conditions have not yet slipped into abnormal dryness. In Nukuoro, 1.78 inches of rain fell, marking a second week of below 2 inches of rain. However, over 6 inches of rain fell a couple weeks ago, so conditions remained normal. Conditions in Kapingamarangi slipped to short-term abnormal dryness, where just 0.31 inches of rain this week continued a stretch when six of the last seven weeks have totaled less than 2 inches of rain. In Pohnpei, 5.38 inches of rain fell this week, and conditions remained normal. In Pingelap, short-term moderate drought continued after 0.8 inches of rain fell this week. Conditions in Kosrae remained normal, where 7.85 inches of rain fell this week. No Drought Monitor depictions were made in Ulithi or Fananu, as no data were available for either location.

In Kwajalein, 0.24 inches of rain were reported this week, marking the third consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. Given that over 7 inches of rain fell the week prior to this stretch, conditions are not quite at abnormal dryness, but the recent dry pattern will continue to be monitored. In Ailinglaplap, 1.61 inches of rain were reported, marking a second week in a row with less than 2 inches of rain, continuing a mostly dry pattern. Almost 4 inches of rain fell a couple weeks ago, so conditions are not quite abnormally dry, but the recent dryness will continue to be monitored. Conditions remained normal in Jaluit, where 3.03 inches of rain fell. Short-term moderate drought continued in Utirik and Wotje. The first few days of February in Utirik saw just 0.04 inches of rain, while Wotje has received 1.12 inches. Only 0.92 inches of rain fell in Majuro this week, marking two weeks in a row with less than 2 inches of rainfall. However, conditions there remain normal given a wetter pattern before the last two weeks. Mili has received 0.32 inches of rain so far in February, and conditions remained normal there.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, an active weather pattern is expected across much of the continental U.S., with several regions showing a strong signal for precipitation. The heaviest precipitation is forecast from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, where widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Portions of the central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes are anticipated to receive generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation during this period. Across the West, precipitation is expected to be widespread from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies. Liquid-equivalent totals of 1 to 3 inches are forecast in the Cascades and northern Rockies, with locally higher amounts possible at higher elevations. Farther south into the Great Basin and Southwest, precipitation becomes more scattered, with most areas receiving less than 0.5 inches, and many locations remaining dry. Drier conditions are expected to persist across California, the northern Great Plains, central and southern Texas, and much of the Florida Peninsula, where little to no precipitation is forecast over the next week.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook (Feb. 10-14) shows a strong and widespread signal for above-normal temperatures across much of the continental U.S. The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are centered over the central and southern Plains, extending northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Much of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and interior West also favors above-normal temperatures. Along the West Coast, temperatures are expected to be near normal, while parts of the Northeast show a transition from below normal in northern New England to near or above normal farther south. Portions of the Southeast, including Florida, are favored to see near-normal temperatures. Alaska shows a mix of near- to below-normal temperatures across the mainland, with near-normal conditions favored over the southern coast. Hawaii is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day precipitation outlook (Feb. 10–14) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western U.S., including the Southwest and West Coast, with elevated probabilities extending into parts of the northern Rockies. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across Alaska and Hawaii during this period. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across Florida and portions of the far Southeast, while much of the central U.S. is expected to see near-normal precipitation.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/3)

February Washington D.C. Preview

— President Donald Trump's pick for fed chair is in but don't expect a speedy nomination process.   — The White House's demand for a massive hike in defense spending faces political and budget obstacles.   — The Treasury is working on specific licenses for oil companies that want to work in Venezuela.

Agriculture — Farm bill path forward: House Agriculture Committee Republicans are moving forward with plans for legislation to address industry priorities that weren’t included in last year’s massive GOP reconciliation package.   Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) has tentatively scheduled a farm bill markup for the week of Feb. 23. The text hasn’t been formally introduced, but it is expected to be largely similar to the version that the committee advanced in May 2024. It will be updated to incorporate changes made in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.   Committee staff is awaiting cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, which could delay the markup.   It’s not clear how willing Democrats will be to advance the legislation, as many are still angry about Republicans’ unilateral cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the OBBBA. Some Democrats say they won’t come to the table unless Republicans consider undoing SNAP cuts. GOP lawmakers say that is a non-starter.   — Farm aid incoming: The Trump administration’s $11 billion in aid for major commodity producers is expected to be doled out by the end of February, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins pledged in December.   That money will be allocated to producers of row crops like corn, soybeans, wheat, rice and cotton. USDA announced payment rates at the end of December — with shares going to rice and cotton producers — prompting other agriculture groups to ask for more aid to help farmers stay afloat.   Another $1 billion has been reserved for growers of fruits, vegetables and other so-called specialty crops, as well as other commodities like sugar. USDA has not announced payment rates or a timeline for distributing that money, and specialty crop producers are publicly lobbying for at least another $5 billion this year.   — Another round of farm aid: As USDA distributes the first round of farm aid, Capitol Hill Republicans are responding to the agriculture industry’s pressure for more economic relief.   Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), who chairs the Senate Appropriations Ag-FDA subcommittee, have put together a plan for a $15 billion farm aid package this spring. They unsuccessfully pushed to include that aid in January’s funding bills and are now looking to pass a Senate-led supplemental appropriations package in February or March.   The second tranche of farm aid would include money designated for specialty crop producers. Thompson said he would also like to include money for producers of forestry and lumber products in the plan.   Lawmakers looking to pass a supplemental appropriations package face long odds this Congress, as leaders have struggled to get support for spending bills in regular order — especially from fiscal hawks who are unlikely to support further subsidies for farmers.   — Ongoing ethanol talks: A congressional working group co-chaired by Reps. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) and Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) is working to draft an energy deal to allow year-round E15 fuel sales while incorporating oil industry interests, after Republicans failed to get the provision included in the January government funding package.   E15 backers believe they’ll get a vote on ethanol policy by late February. President Trump has called on Congress to resolve differences on the issue and finalize an agreement that would be a boon for struggling corn farmers ahead of the midterm elections.   Some oil companies and refiners remain concerned about allowing increased ethanol sales, and lawmakers from big oil states could block the plan. — Grace Yarrow

Trade — Tariff threats: President Trump backed away from promised tariffs over Greenland last month, reigniting the TACO taunts (for Trump Always Chickens Out).   But that hasn’t stopped the president from wielding the threat of tariffs against multiple other countries in the ensuing days.   On Jan. 26, Trump posted on Truth Social that he will raise duties on South Korea because its legislature hasn’t passed legislation holding up its end of a trade deal struck over the summer. Three days later, he warned Canada that he will impose a 50 percent tariff on Canadian aircraft sold into the U.S. unless its government certifies the sale of Gulfstream jets. And he signed an order declaring a national emergency over Cuba, which could ultimately allow the U.S. to raise tariffs on Mexico over its sale of oil to the communist island.   The White House has not move forward with the new tariff hikes on Canada or South Korea, but it’s nonetheless set off a scramble in Ottawa and Seoul.   The South Korean government dispatched senior economic officials to Washington to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the ruling party said it was looking to speed up passage of the bill related to their trade deal.   Trump’s threat caught Ottawa and Canada’s aerospace industry by surprise, triggering a flurry of meetings and discussions. “Transport Canada officials are in communication with their U.S. counterparts, and our government is actively working on this situation,” Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon said in a social media post. — Emily Cadei, Ari Hawkins, Zi-Ann Lum, Daniel Desrochers

Financial Services — Fed Chair: The Senate will begin its vetting of Kevin Warsh, Trump’s long-awaited pick to be chair of the Federal Reserve, though the timing of a formal vote could drag out. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who sits on the committee that has jurisdiction over the Fed, has said he won’t advance any nominees to the central bank until a Justice Department probe into outgoing Chair Jerome Powell is resolved. Tillis has warned that investigation runs the risk of endangering the Fed’s political autonomy.   The president has relentlessly attacked Powell, whose term ends in May, for not lowering borrowing costs enough. The Fed last week voted to keep interest rates on hold, following three consecutive rate cuts.   — The bear case: Amazon, Walmart and McDonald’s are among the major companies that will hold earnings calls this month, which will offer insights into how they view the economy. Trump’s interventionist trade and foreign policy stances revived the “Sell America” market narrative that has hurt U.S. stocks, the dollar and other assets. While stocks have recovered from Greenland-related tumult, the dollar has continued to sink and yields on long-term Treasury securities — used to price everything from mortgages to corporate loans — remain elevated. The market’s fluctuations suggest that investor patience with Trump’s tariff threats is wearing thin.   — Crypto-market: Senate Banking Committee Republicans are pushing to revive the panel’s portion of cryptocurrency market structure legislation, after Chair Tim Scott postponed a markup scheduled for last month. Lawmakers must overcome differences over whether crypto exchanges should be allowed to offer rewards programs that pay an annual percentage yield to dollar-pegged stablecoin holders.   — Housing: The ROAD to Housing Act could receive a floor vote in the Senate, and the Housing in the 21st Century Act could receive a floor vote in the House this month.   — Private-equity: February should shed more light on the president’s executive order to block private equity investors from receiving government support when purchasing single-family homes. The Jan. 20 directive gave Treasury’s Bessent and National Economic Council Director Hassett 30 days to define which large institutional investors and single-family homes will be subject to the policy.   — Bessent-Congress: Bessent will testify early this month before the House Financial Services Committee for the annual report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a body of uber-regulators who examine potential risks to the markets. — Cassandra Dumay, Jasper Goodman, Victoria Guida, Katherine Hapgood, Sam Sutton

Tax — Ready or not: Much of the tax world will be focused on how tax season unfolds. Republicans have high hopes that a surge in refunds, fueled by their 2025 tax cuts, will help sell voters on their biggest legislative achievement ahead of this fall’s midterms.   It comes amid big questions about how ready the IRS is for a crush of returns, in the wake of successive budget cuts that have dramatically reduced the agency’s workforce. Democrats will be watching closely for signs that taxpayers are not getting their questions answered or that people’s refunds are not being turned around quickly.   A partial government shutdown will continue through at least Tuesday, as lawmakers try to move funding legislation for the IRS and other agencies, but the tax department should be unscathed. The agency says its employees will be exempt from any furloughs through Feb. 7. “Employees should report to work on their regular schedules,” the IRS says on its website.   — Guidance: At the same time, many are keeping an eye out for the latest installment of guidance from Treasury on how to interpret Republicans’ tax cuts. Many in thebusiness world are particularly eager for policymakers to allow companies to claim catch-up R&D breaks approved as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill without getting ensnared by a corporate minimum tax. Others are anxious to see which financial firm(s) Treasury selects to help run the new Trump account savings program for kids.   — Crypto watch: It’s worth keeping tabs on Congress as well to see if they can make progress on updating the tax code’s treatment of digital assets like cryptocurrencies. Some are watching to see if an incipient push by Republicans for a second reconciliation bill can go anywhere, though that appears to be a longshot. — Brian Faler

Employment and Immigration — Shutdown watch: Federal labor-related agencies are in better shape to withstand a government shutdown than they were during the 43-day funding lapse that shuttered Washington last fall.   The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was unable to release key economic reports during the stoppage that started Oct.1, will continue to release some data thanks to the Commerce, Justice and Science appropriations bill that President Trump signed into law last month. That legislation funded the Census Bureau, which collects some data used by BLS.   The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission also received funding through the CJS bill and will continue operations.   The Labor Department and the National Labor Relations Board will still be required to release shutdown plans because their funding is tied to the $1.2 trillion spending package that has been stalled by a dispute over funding for the Department of Homeland Security.   — EEOC kicks into gear: The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, which spent much of last year sidelined without enough members to form a quorum, launched into action in January with two votes that gave Chair Andrea Lucas greater control over the panel’s agenda and rescinded its Biden-era harassment guidance.   The latter move drew backlash from Democrats and legal groups after the EEOC rescinded guidance on preventing harassment based on sexual orientation and gender identity without the public input that had been promised.   The agency is expected to move soon to rescind its 2024 Pregnant Workers Fairness Act regulation, which conservatives argue exceeds congressional intent by requiring employers to accommodate abortion as a medical condition.   — House stumbles: Education and Workforce Chair Tim Walberg’s (R-Mich.) legislative agenda hit a speed bump in January after several bills that cleared his committee stalled on the House floor amid resistance from fellow GOP lawmakers.   A group of Republicans joined Democrats to block the Flexibility for Workers Education Act after voicing concerns that the bill would allow employers to avoid paying overtime for workers' job training. House leadership then pulled a broader package of committee-approved bills, including the Save Local Business Act, which would narrow the joint-employer standard and roll back a Biden-era rule expanding liability for franchisors and contractors. — Lawrence Ukenye

Education — GOP prods students to pay back loans: Republicans say millions of people need to start paying down their overdue student debt, with nearly 12 million borrowers behind on their loans. But that message is on a collision course with economic reality as Americans struggle to pay the rising costs of food, health careand housing.   The Trump administration has already retreated from some of its efforts to collect on student loan debt, including plans last year to seize Social Security benefits from borrowers in default. And in a surprising reversal, the Education Department said last month it is pausing its plans to nab wages and tax refunds from people with past-due student loans.   Republicans insist their overall approach — combining a proposed settlement by the Trump administration to end a Biden-era student loan repayment plan and an array of new loan policies from the GOP’s domestic policy law — will help borrowers get back on track in paying off their debt.   The GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act established two new repayment options — the Repayment Assistance Plan, which is based on income, and a standard plan based on the size of their debt. Those new plans are expected to be available in July.   The new income-based plan is less generous than the Biden administration’s student loan repayment plan, which offered monthly payments as low as $0 and a quicker path to debt relief. Republicans say their new income-based plan helps the borrowers they think will have the most trouble paying back their loans: poorer Americans. The new plan offers payments as little as $10 for borrowers earning $10,000 a year or less.   Democrats had panned the Education Department’s planned move to seize paychecks as borrowers default on their loans — as well as the GOP’s broader loan strategy.   — Shutdown: A partial government shutdown would see the Education Department largely cease operations. The department typically halts new grantmaking activities and pauses civil rights investigations, and the agency furloughs most of its staff. It’s unclear if the agency would move to layoff department staff during this partial shutdown, as it did during last year’s funding lapse.   Federal student aid activity usually continues during a shutdown, such as disbursing the Pell Grant, which is mandatory funding that helps low-income students pay for college, and direct student loans.   Head Start programs funded by the Department of Health and Human Services could experience a lapse in grant funding during the shutdown. Grantees for the early childhood education program receive their funding on different cycles, but a prolonged shutdown without federal funds could see some Head Start programs with limited reserve cash struggle to pay educators and other bills to keep their doors open. — Mackenzie Wilkes

Defense — The $1.5 trillion pivot: Even as lawmakers try to resolve a government shutdown and enact a Pentagon funding deal as soon as today, they have another goal looming: Trump's demand for a mammoth $1.5 trillion defense budget in the 2027 budget.   The president's proposal would mean a staggering 50 percent hike in defense spending. And while many hawks on Capitol Hill rejoiced at Trump's ambitious announcement last month, it will face political and budgeting hurdles.   The effort to increase military spending by about $500 billion in a single year will prove tough. Doing so in the regular appropriations process, which would require Democratic support, is unlikely to succeed.   Congressional Republicans could pursue another party-line reconciliation bill or seek to achieve that goal over several years. This would reflect defense hawks' desire for steady annual defense increases that reach 5 percent of GDP.   Rep. Rob Wittman, for instance, has argued for funding that would hit $1.5 trillion budget by 2030. But the senior House Armed Services Committee GOP member questioned whether such a massive increase could get spent in a single year.   “You’d have real problems getting that much money in the pipeline and using that efficiently,” he said. — Connor O’Brien

Health Care — Obamacare subsidies: Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) proposed a last-ditch plan to revive subsidies that help people afford Obamacare plans on Jan. 29.   Moreno’s proposal would extend the subsidies, which expired at the end of last year, for one year and add new anti-fraud measures. It would wind down the subsidies over the following two years but offer to help Obamacare customers fund tax-advantaged health savings accounts. HSAs can be used to cover medical expenses, but not insurance premiums.   Moreno called it a final offer and Democrats, who’ve backed legislation to extend the subsidies without changes for three years, said it couldn’t be if Republicans really want a deal.   The Congressional Black Caucus, a key bloc in the House, said it objected to some of the anti-fraud measures, such as the elimination of zero-premium plans.   Democrats created the subsidies in a 2021 pandemic relief law, the American Rescue Plan Act, and extended them in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act but set them to expire at the end of 2025 to keep the costs of the legislation down.   Without them, Obamacare customers with incomes below 400 percent of the poverty level continue to get government help paying for coverage, but it’s not as generous. Those earning more than 400 percent of the poverty level get nothing. That means the average out-of-pocket premium cost for all Obamacare customers has more than doubled this year.   Democrats hope to use the issue to hammer Republicans on health care affordability during the midterm elections. That concerns some in the GOP, like Moreno, but conservatives in safe seats are not keen on voting for legislation that buttresses Obamacare, a program they’d prefer to repeal.   In conversations with reporters, Moreno hasn’t sounded optimistic that lawmakers will coalesce.   — Fiscal 2026 funding for HHS: Congress rejected President Trump’s plan for a 25 percent budget cut at the health department, offering flat funding instead.   It was an indication that despite the upheaval at the Department of Health and Human Services driven by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Democrats continue to support its mission — in contrast to their position on the Department of Homeland Security.   Kennedy has promised to spend the money Congress gives him. He’s already indicated he’ll use money set aside for grants to study issues of interest to him, such as the causes of autism and the health impacts of eating more meat. Kennedy thinks those impacts are positive.   National Institutes of Health Director Jay Bhattacharya, who will continue to manage the world’s largest budget devoted to health research, some $49 billion, has said he plans to spread the wealth more broadly, away from the research megalopolises on the coasts to the heartland. — Health Care Pro Team

Transportation — The government is shut down — again: We are in the early stages of a partial government shutdown and as long as it doesn’t drag on beyond a few more days, the DOT will continue to do its work. That means air traffic controllers will be staffing towers and TSA workers, who are funded by DHS, will be manning airports. A couple days into the previous shutdown, employees at FHWA, FMCSA, NHTSA and FTA were not furloughed, but some at FRA, PHMSA and MARAD were. The longer the shutdown goes, the more painful it will be. And if it veers into weeks, flight cuts could again be on the table.   — The $85 billion wedding between Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific is delayed: The two railroad giants must resubmit their application to the Surface Transportation Board after the regulator determined their submission was lacking crucial details necessary to evaluate the merits of whether a consolidation would improve competition in an industry that is already down to a handful of Class I railroads. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern plan to refile their application in the coming weeks.   — ROTOR Act momentum? The NTSB recently recommended, during a hearing about the DC air crash, that the FAA mandate ADS-B In technologies for aircraftthat need ADS-B Out, a vote of confidence for the ROTOR Act which has stalled in the House since the Senate passed it last year. ADS-B Out provides an aircraft’s location, altitude and speed to air traffic controllers and other aircraft can get those if they have ADS-B In. That requirement would be imposed under the ROTOR Act, but House Transportation Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) has said he wanted to wait until the NTSB’s recommendations. Now that the NTSB has spoken, it will be interesting to see how Graves, and others in the House, respond. — Chris Marquette

Technology — Defiance Act 2.0: Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Laurel Lee (R-Fla.) have pushed House Speaker Mike Johnson for a House vote on their bill allowing victims to sue the producers and distributors of nonconsensual deepfake pornography. The bill sailed through the Senate in January following backlash over the use of chatbot Grok to generate nonconsensual, sexual images of women and children on Elon Musk-owned X.   The DEFIANCE Act failed to progress in the House last Congress despite clearing the Senate. Now, the cosponsors are taking the fight directly to Speaker Johnson, who seemed “quite receptive” to the proposal when Ocasio-Cortez met with him.   Paris Hilton also visited the Hill in January to draw public attention to the legislation. The TAKE IT DOWN Act, a related proposal that criminalizes the spread of nonconsensual intimate imagery, became law after receiving a boost from First Lady Melania Trump’s endorsement last year.   — Bipartisan chip export policy advances: The House Foreign Affairs Committee overwhelmingly advanced legislation giving Congress increased authority over approving or denying future proposed AI chip exports to China and other foreign adversaries. Now, all eyes are on how the legislation performs in the full House and Senate.   The committee voted 42-2-1 to move the AI OVERWATCH Act forward last week, which was introduced by Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.) in December. The amended bill also includes a two-year ban on selling Nvidia’s Blackwell chips in China, the second most advanced chip in the company’s lineup.   This is the first bipartisan effort from Congress to limit exports following the Trump administration’s approval to sell Nvidia’s H200 chips — and similarly advanced chips — to China last month. Previous bipartisan efforts on related legislation were introduced in the Senate last year, but the question now is whether members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are poised to take up Mast’s bill. The bill could be overshadowed by the Trump administration’s Venezuela takeover and efforts to block further military action in the country.   — Congress turns to public safety communications: Key lawmakers intend to use the coming months to prioritize reauthorization of FirstNet, a secure wireless network used by first responders that has a congressional mandate set to expire in February 2027.   Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who chairs the Energy and Commerce telecom subcommittee, recently told POLITICO he is preparing draft legislation to reauthorize FirstNet, and that he’s comfortable with AT&T’s role in operating it.   His Senate Commerce Committee colleagues, meanwhile, also put the issue center stage in a hearing in late January. Several rival wireless carriers, like Verizon and T-Mobile, have competing services to AT&T, which could become a political flashpoint during Hill negotiations.   Hudson told POLITICO he believes Congress should reauthorize FirstNet this year, well in advance of the expiration and avoiding the risk of cutting off the millions of first responders who use the network now. — Gabby Miller, Kat Long and John Hendel

Cybersecurity — Nominations: The Trump administration is moving to fill key cyber leadership vacancies in the month ahead.   Lt. Gen. Joshua Rudd, Trump’s pick to lead the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, cleared his first of three confirmation votes in the Senate last month.   The Senate Armed Services Committee approved Rudd, who currently serves as deputy commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, last week for the dual-hat role. He faces two more Senate votes to be confirmed. The next step will be getting approval from the Senate Intelligence Committee, where Rudd testified on Thursday morning. And if confirmed by the full Senate, Rudd will be the first Senate-approved leader of Cyber Command and the NSA since Trump abruptly fired former dual-hat head Gen. Timothy Haugh in April.   Trump also resubmitted Sean Plankey’s nomination to lead the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency last month, shutting down questions about whether Trump was considering another candidate to helm the nation’s cyber defense agency.   Plankey was tapped to head the agency early last year and faced a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing in July. But the Senate failed to hold a confirmation vote before the end of year, restarting the process for Plankey, a former senior National Security Council and Energy Department official during Trump’s first term.   It’s unclear if Senate Republicans will rally around Plankey, who currently serves as a senior adviser to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem for the Coast Guard. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) reportedly blocked Plankey’s nomination last year over a Coast Guard ship-building contract. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has also vowed to block all DHS nominees until Noem commits to appearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Plankey will have to face the Senate Homeland Security Committee for a second confirmation hearing, though the panel has yet to schedule it.   — All eyes on CISA: Plankey’s renomination comes as CISA’s interim leadership is receiving increased scrutiny from lawmakers. Madhu Gottumukkala, the agency’s acting director, testified before the House Homeland Security Committee last month, where he was hammered by Democratic members about POLITICO’s reporting that he failed an intelligence polygraph exam last summer, resulting in the suspension of at least six career staffers at CISA.   POLITICO also reported last week that Gottumukkala uploaded sensitive contracting documents into a public version of ChatGPT last summer, sparking automated security warnings meant to stop the unintentional disclosure or theft of government material from federal networks.   — On the Hill: Meanwhile, members of Congress temporarily renewed two bedrock cybersecurity policies — the 2015 Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act and the State and Local Cybersecurity Grant Program — before they expired again on Jan. 30, providing the laws with a temporary lifeline through the DHS funding package that narrowly passed the House.   Under the agreement between Trump and Senate Democrats to avoid a government shutdown, lawmakers have two weeks to debate the DHS funding bill, which also includes around $2.6 billion in funding for CISA.   CISA 2015 incentivizes private companies to share cyber threat information with the federal government through liability protections, while the SLCGP provided $1 billionin funding for states and localities to beef up their cyber defenses.   Both laws briefly expired at the end of September but were given temporary revivals in Congress’ continuing resolution to reopen the government in November.   Lawmakers are also continuing to assess the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act’s mass foreign surveillance power, Section 702. The authority lets the government require U.S. tech firms to gather foreigners’ communications abroad without first obtaining a warrant. Section 702 has recently come under fire by data privacy advocates and members of Congress over reports that the authority has swept up Americans’ data.   — Cyber strategy watch: And at the White House, National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross has yet to drop the White House’s national cybersecurity strategy — which will outline Trump’s top cybersecurity priorities for his second administration.   POLITICO has previously reported that the strategy, which was originally anticipated for release in early January, is around five pages and focuses on shaping adversary behavior, aligning regulations for more uniformity; securing critical infrastructure; boosting the cyber workforce; modernizing and securing federal networks; and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, according to two industry representatives.   The strategy has since been delayed without a clear timeline for release. We’ll be watching out for it in the coming days, where Cairncross is set to speak at the Information Technology Industry Council’s Intersect conference on Feb. 3 about the Trump administration’s cyber priorities. — Dana Nickel