This Week's Drought Summary (3/6)

In the last week, a few swaths of precipitation occurred across the country, including the Sierra Nevada, northwest California and western portions of Washington and Oregon. Some high elevation areas of the West received precipitation as well, mostly outside of the desert Southwest. Some areas of the Upper Midwest and Northeast received a quarter of an inch of precipitation to locally over an inch. At the end of the current drought monitoring period (Tuesday morning), a powerful storm system was emerging into the Great Plains, delivering thunderstorms, high winds and wind-driven snow to parts of the Great Plains and Midwest. While some of this precipitation fell overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, most of this precipitation will not be accounted for until next week’s U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) update. Temperatures generally ranged from 5-15 degrees warmer than normal in the Great Plains, with locally warmer readings in the Dakotas and eastern Montana. With some exceptions, temperatures were mostly within 5 degrees of normal across the rest of the Contiguous U.S.

The Southeast U.S. had a mostly dry week, which led to degradations to short- and long-term drought conditions across parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida. Mostly dry weather in the lower Midwest and southern Great Plains led to expansion of ongoing abnormal dryness and drought. Drought coverage and severity also increased in the Southwest and in Hawaii, while short-term abnormal dryness developed in south-central Alaska. Improvements to snowpack in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming and southwest Montana led to some improvements to conditions there.

Northeast

Precipitation amounts this week varied from a quarter inch to locally over an inch from western Pennsylvania and West Virginia through New England, while mostly dry weather occurred elsewhere. Temperatures ranging from 3-6 degrees above normal occurred in parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southeast New York. Temperatures were mostly within 3 degrees of normal elsewhere with some local exceptions. Few changes were made to the USDM depiction this week in the Northeast. Short- and long-term severe drought expanded a bit in central Maryland and adjacent south-central Pennsylvania, where soil moisture conditions continued to worsen alongside decreasing streamflow and increasing precipitation deficits. A small-scale increase in severe drought coverage along the New York-New Jersey border occurred due to decreasing streamflow and increasing precipitation deficits.

Southeast

Temperatures across the Southeast this week were mostly within 5 degrees of normal. Most areas in the region had a dry week. Short- and long-term moderate and severe drought developed or expanded across parts of the Carolinas and eastern Georgia this week, where streamflow and soil moisture dropped amid increased precipitation deficits. Smaller-scale increases in abnormal dryness and moderate drought occurred in Alabama after the dry week. Short-term moderate and severe drought expanded in south Florida, where fire danger indices have increased recently. Some improvements to short-term moderate drought occurred in central Florida occurred following heavy rainfall that fell near last week’s Tuesday morning cutoff.

South

Temperatures across the South this week were mostly warmer than normal, with much of Texas and Oklahoma finishing the week 6-10 degrees above normal. A line of thunderstorms associated with this week’s powerful low-pressure systems produced widespread rain of 0.5-1 inches in central and western Oklahoma and central north Texas, though areas east of there did not receive precipitation from this storm system until after the Tuesday morning data cutoff. Scattered drought degradations occurred in the western halves of Texas and Oklahoma, due to increasing precipitation deficits and locally decreasing streamflow and soil moisture. Groundwater and reservoir levels continued to drop in central Texas in the San Antonio area amid very large precipitation deficits, leading to the development of a small area of exceptional drought. Similar conditions in southwest Texas led to the expansion of exceptional drought along the Rio Grande to the El Paso area.

Midwest

Temperatures in the eastern half of the Midwest region were generally near normal to 5 degrees above normal. In the western half of the region, temperatures from 5-15 degrees above normal were common. A half inch or more of precipitation fell across parts of northern Ohio, north-central Illinois and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while most other areas were relatively dry this week. Growing precipitation deficits, especially in the short-term, combined with low streamflow and soil moisture, led to the expansion and development of moderate and severe drought in northern Missouri, central and northern Illinois and Indiana. Elsewhere in the Midwest, no changes occurred to the USDM this week, though low seasonal snowfall totals in parts of Minnesota are of growing concern as the transition to spring occurs.

High Plains

Temperatures across most of the High Plains were above normal, with most locations east of the Rocky Mountains finishing the week between 9 and 15 degrees warmer than normal. Some precipitation fell in mountainous areas of Colorado and Wyoming, and snow occurred Monday night into Tuesday morning in parts of the northeast Colorado plains into western and central Nebraska. Most of the High Plains region east of the Rocky Mountains did not see any changes to ongoing drought or abnormal dryness, except for southern Kansas, where abnormal dryness expanded in response to unusually dry weather in the last few months. In western Colorado, moderate and severe drought expanded in coverage due to very low snowpack and growing precipitation deficits. Recent precipitation in west-central Wyoming led to localized improvements to drought conditions there.

West

Precipitation fell across higher elevations of California, northern Idaho and western areas of Oregon and Washington this week. For the most part, drier weather occurred elsewhere. Temperatures were warmer than normal in most of the West, with the warmest conditions of 9-15 degrees above normal occurring in the central and eastern plains of Montana. Recent improvements to snowpack in northeast Nevada, Idaho and southwest Montana led to localized improvements to drought conditions. Meanwhile, to the south across Utah, Arizona and New Mexico, this week’s continued dry weather led to widespread drought degradation as short- and long-term precipitation deficits grew amid soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater deficits. Drought conditions are especially bad from Phoenix westward to far southeast California, where exceptional drought developed this week.

Caribbean

Variable rainfall amounts occurred in Puerto Rico this week, with mostly dry conditions prevailing along the north-central coast, while a few locations elsewhere received at least 2 inches of rainfall. Temperatures were mostly a degree or two warmer than normal. Puerto Rico remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.

Neither dryness nor drought exists across the U.S. Virgin Islands, despite near- or slightly below-normal rainfall in recent weeks.  Following last year’s wetness, vegetation remains relatively robust, while depth to groundwater – as shown by a network of U.S. Geological Survey wells – has only recently begun to increase.  February rainfall across the territory, as reported by cooperative and volunteer (CoCoRaHS) observers, generally ranged from 2 to 3 inches on St. Thomas and St. John, and 2 to 4 inches on St. Croix.  Standardized Precipitation Index values are trending in the direction of abnormal dryness, but have not yet reached that threshold.

Pacific

Very low snowpack led to the development of abnormal dryness in south-central Alaska, while abnormal dryness continued in southwest and southeast Alaska. Temperatures ranged from 6 to locally 15 degrees warmer than normal in central, south-central and parts of southeast Alaska. Temperatures were mostly within 3 degrees of normal in southwest Alaska and in the North Slope area.

Mostly warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in Hawaii this week, with many locations finishing the week at least 2-4 degrees above normal. A recent dry spell along with decreasing streamflow in many locations led to expansion and degradation in drought conditions from Oahu eastward, especially on the windward (eastern) sides of the islands.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, there were subtle changes to the previous depiction. In the Federated States of Micronesia, abnormal dryness (D0-S) on Woleai was eradicated by more than 6 inches of rain during the 7-day drought-monitoring period, while moderate drought (D1-S) persisted across Yap and Pingelap. A recent report from Woleai indicated that water tanks are full and vegetation is healthy. Meanwhile, an unconfirmed report from Yap indicated there have been some spot fires. In the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the depiction for Wotje was changed from abnormal dryness (D0-S) to moderate drought (D1-S), due to nearly continuous dryness during the first 2 months of 2025, aside from 2 weeks in February. D1-S was retained for Kwajalein, RMI, where January-February rainfall totaled 3.32 inches. The depiction for Utirik, RMI, was set at D1-S, following the receipt of data from an automated rain gauge. Similarly, automated data from Mili, RMI, showed a February rainfall total of 16.60 inches. In the Marianas, several days of soaking rainfall on Guam and Rota – totaling 3.93 inches during the drought-monitoring period at Guam International Airport and more than 4 inches in several locations – led to improvement from moderate drought (D1-S) to abnormal dryness (D0-S). However, rain remained mostly south of Saipan, where severe drought (D2-S) persisted. Neither dryness nor drought was observed across American Samoa and the Republic of Palau.

Looking Ahead

Through the evening of Monday, March 10, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting parts of coastal and high elevation California, along with portions of the high elevation West to receive 0.75 or more inches of precipitation, though this is mostly expected to miss New Mexico, Montana, northern Idaho, Washington and Oregon. A few other corridors of at least a half inch of precipitation are forecast across northern Nebraska, from southeast Oklahoma to South Carolina and the Florida Panhandle, and in New England. Some areas of the Southeast may receive at least 1 inch of rainfall.

Looking ahead to March 11-15, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation in the northern Contiguous U.S. and strongly favors above-normal precipitation in the western, and especially southwestern, U.S. Below-normal precipitation is favored in most of Texas, especially in far southern reaches of the state. Colder-than-normal temperatures are favored across the West, while warmer-than-normal weather is favored across most of the central and eastern Contiguous U.S.

Crop Progress - State Stories

IDAHO: The average temperatures for February ranged from below normal to slightly above normal for the State. Northern Idaho experienced warm temperatures as a reprieve from heavy snowfall, which caused excessive soil moisture. Crop growth started again, and spring calving started. Warmer than average temperatures melted the snow away in lower to mid elevation fields. Rain and melt events caused rill erosion in susceptible areas. Southwest Idaho received significant precipitation, and snowpack levels were above normal. Hay stocks were sufficient as calving and lambing progressed. There were some reports of lingering snow in fields resulting from multiple snowstorms. Southeast Idaho reported lingering water from significant precipitation throughout the month. Hay supplies remained plentiful. Calving and lambing were in full swing as the weather warmed, following a trend of significant precipitation. Producers also prepared equipment for the spring season. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of February 2025. Topsoil moisture 17% very short, 29% short, 52% adequate, 2% surplus. Subsoil moisture 22% very short, 38% short, 39% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 11% poor, 21% fair, 67% good. Winter wheat, wind damage was 70% none, 22% light, 5% moderate, 3% heavy. Winter wheat, freeze and drought damage 75% none, 16% light, 8% moderate, 1% heavy. Winter wheat, protectiveness of snow cover 18% very poor, 40% poor, 9% fair, 10% good, 23% excellent. Pasture and range condition 26% very poor, 45% poor, 22% fair, 6% good, 1% excellent. Livestock grazing accessibility 62% open, 25% difficult, 13% closed. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 97% fed, 97% last year. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 94% fed, 96% last year. Cows calved 4%, 13% last year. Ewes lambed 3%, 9% last year. February brought cooler temperatures and snowstorms. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for February 27, roughly 41 percent of the State was drought free, compared with 4 percent on January 28. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 24 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 21 percent, severe drought (D2) at 10 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at 4 percent. 

NEVADA: For the week ending March 2, 2025, days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 50% very short, 15% short, 25% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 10% very short, 70% short, 15% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 15% very poor, 50% poor, 20% fair, 10% good, and 5% excellent. As of February 25, the US Drought Monitor showed 78% of the State was not in a drought. Dry conditions continued during February, with little precipitation. Temperatures remained normal. Alfalfa was still dormant. Annual weeds started to germinate. 

OREGON: Temperatures ranged from average to below average across most of the State. Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, and Washington Counties reported sporadic severe weather with wind damage and some local flooding. Erosion manifested in fields with inadequate cover. The weather also significantly pushed pasture and crop growth along with weed competition. These conditions encouraged fertilizing and weed control activities. Benton and Lincoln Counties also experienced a dichotomy of pleasant warm weather and several large storms that brought high winds, downed trees, power outages, and some flooding. Clatsop and Tillamook Counties followed suit with heavy rainstorms and high winds, which caused some structural damage. The grass was greening, and field conditions were saturated as rivers saw bank spillover. Fields in Morrow County had high moisture but were short of being saturated. Deep snow was reported in nearby higher elevations. Lake County experienced a continued trend of heavy precipitations along with freezing temperatures. Livestock producers reported higher than normal mortality rates for newborn livestock due to severe winter weather conditions. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of February 2025. Topsoil moisture 29% short and 71% adequate. Subsoil moisture 41% short and 59% adequate. Pasture and range condition 4% poor, 7% fair, 74% good, 15% excellent. Winter wheat condition 9% poor, 28% fair, 63% good. Hay and roughage supplies 53% adequate and 47% surplus. Stock water supplies 10% short, 57% adequate, and 33% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 94% good and 6% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 93% good and 7% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 85%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 97%. Cows calved 14%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 4%. Ewes lambed-range flock 8%. As of March 2, 2025, snowpack in Utah was 85 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Grand County reported very dry, with little snow and warm conditions. Beaver County reported very poor snowpack, but livestock are doing well, and farmers are starting field work. 

WASHINGTON: The Statewide temperatures for February were mostly below normal to normal for this time of year. Producers in central Washington received much needed precipitation in the form of snow. Crop activity was low, with some acres of orchards and hopyards torn out since the last cropping season. The northeastern region experienced cold weather. The rain melted the valley snow, which helped with soil moisture. Calving had officially begun. The east-central region reported that their winter wheat crop remained in good to excellent condition. February weather was favorable, apart from soil moisture loss due to frozen soil. The southeast region received some precipitation. Most precipitation went into the ground, but some runoff was due to frozen ground conditions. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of February 2025. Cows calved 11%. Ewes lambed 8%. Sheep shorn 14%. Topsoil moisture 30% very short, 34% short, 27% adequate, 9% surplus. Subsoil moisture 33% very short, 37% short, 26% adequate, 4% surplus. Winter wheat condition 16% very poor, 24% poor, 49% fair, 10% good, 1% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 1% very short, 10% short, 73% adequate, 16% surplus. Livestock condition 1% very poor, 2% poor, 19% fair, 73% good, 5% excellent. Stock water supplies 1% very short, 10% short, 81% adequate, 8% surplus. Pasture and range condition 9% very poor, 17% poor, 41% fair, 29% good, 4% excellent. Wyoming received some relief from the ongoing drought conditions during the month of February. Rainfall was scattered and total accumulations varied widely across the State, ranging from a trace to 15 inches across the State during the month of February, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures varied widely across the State during the month, ranging from 15 degrees below average to near normal in the northern half of the State, while the southern half of the State saw temperatures ranging from 3 degrees below average to 6 degrees above average during the month, according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) climate maps for the month of February. Drought conditions improved in Wyoming during February according to the United States Drought Monitor report published for February 25, 2025. The amount of land rated drought free was 4 percent, up 3 percent from the report published January 28, 2025. The amount of land rated abnormally dry covered 20 percent of Wyoming compared to 16 percent January 28. Moderate drought was found in 26 percent of Wyoming, compared to 24 percent on January 28. Severe drought improved to 34 percent, compared to 37 percent on January 28. Extreme conditions improved to 16 percent, compared to 22 percent on January 28. Reports from Platte County indicated receiving little moisture along with high winds during the month, keeping the ground dry which was great for calving and lambing but ruinous for spring planting and winter wheat. Goshen County reporters noted having not received any significant amount of moisture with ongoing severe drought conditions during the month of February. Reports from Lincoln County indicated near median levels of snowpack, temperatures near zero at night and slightly above freezing daytime temperatures, local rivers frozen over and overland flooding, while local ranchers were just starting to calving and lambing.

Farmer Sentiment Rises As Current Conditions Improve on U.S. Farms

Farmer sentiment improved in February as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed to 152, 11 points above a month earlier. An improvement in the current situation on U.S. farms was the primary driver behind the stronger sentiment among producers, as the Current Conditions Index reading of 137 was 28 points above January’s reading. There was relatively little change in producers’ assessment of future prospects as the Future Expectations Indexrose just 3 points in February to 159.  This month’s rise in the Current Conditions Index capped a long climb from the doldrums of late summer and early fall 2024 when the index bottomed out at a reading of 76. A sharp crop price recovery in the last several months, which was augmented by expectations for receipt of disaster payments authorized by Congress, combined with strength in the U.S. livestock sector, contributed to producers’ improved appraisal of conditions on their farms and in the U.S. agricultural sector. Despite the big improvement in the Current Conditions Index, the February Future Expectations Index was still 22 points higher than the current index, suggesting that farmers expect conditions to improve further. The February barometer survey took place from February 10-14, 2025.

The Farm Capital Investment Index jumped 11 points to 59 in February. This month’s rise in the investment index pushed the index 4 points above November’s reading, which was taken just after the fall election. The February index was also the most positive reading of the investment climate provided by farmers since May 2021. Interestingly, this month, it was a stronger appraisal of current conditions that helped push the index up instead of stronger expectations for the future. The February Farm Financial Performance Index reading of 110 was virtually unchanged from the prior month’s value of 111. Although the index changed little compared to January, it still leaves the financial index up sharply compared to last fall when it dipped to a low of just 68.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose modestly in February, reaching 118, which was 3 points higher than in January and 8 points above the December reading. This month’s farmland index was also 3 points higher than a year ago and virtually equal to two years ago. When compared to the very positive readings received in the winters of 2021 and 2022, the index suggests producers are not as optimistic about farmland values in the year ahead as they were in earlier years, but they are noticeably more optimistic than in late summer and early fall 2024.

Each February since the barometer’s inception, the survey has included a question that asks producers, “What is a reasonable annual growth rate expectation you have for your farm over the next 5 years?”. This year, 50% of the respondents said they either have “no plans to grow” (37%) or “plan to exit or retire” (13%), which compares to 52% a year ago who reported having no plans to grow or plan to exit or retire. Since 2016, the percentage of respondents in these two categories has ranged from a low of 43% in 2016 to a high of 61% in 2022. The biggest shift among respondents in the 2025 survey compared to 2024 was a reduction in the percentage of producers in the slow growth category of less than 5% growth and, correspondingly, an increase in the percentage of producers who expect their farm operation to grow by 1) 10 to 15% and 2) more than 15% annually. This year, 19% of respondents chose one of these two high growth rate categories, more than double the 9% who chose one of the rapid growth rate categories in 2024. 

Policies affecting agriculture are on the minds of U.S. farmers. Sixty-two percent of respondents to this month’s survey said that passing a new Farm Bill in 2025 is either important (25% of respondents) or very important (47% of respondents). In a follow-up question, producers were asked which policies or programs will be most important to their farm in the next 5 years. The top choice by February’s respondents was “Trade Policy” (44% of respondents), followed by “Crop Insurance Program” (18% of respondents). U.S. farmers’ concerns about trade policy was also evident when they were asked about the likelihood of a “Trade War” that results in a significant decrease in U.S. agricultural exports. Forty-eight percent of farmers in this month’s survey said they think a “Trade War” is either “likely” (29% of respondents ) or “very likely” (19% of respondents).

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment rose again in February, with a big improvement in farmers’ appraisal of current conditions on their farms providing the impetus for stronger sentiment. Strengthening crop prices, positive returns in the livestock sector and expectations for receipt of disaster payments from USDA all combined to make the current situation on U.S. farms better. The shift in sentiment regarding the current situation on their farms also appeared to encourage more producers to say this is a good time to make large investments in their farm operation. Looking at the Future Expectations Index, it’s clear that producers remain optimistic about the future, although they are concerned about the possible passage of a new Farm Bill in 2025 as well as the likelihood of a trade war breaking out that would adversely affect U.S. agricultural exports.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/4)