This Week's Drought Summary (12/24)

During the last 7-days, strong anomalous ridging over the Aleutians and troughing over the Gulf of Alaska promoted northerly flow across Alaska, leading to below-normal temperatures and little snowfall. Downstream, an unusually strong ridge dominated the flow across the contiguous United States. Between the northeastern Pacific trough and this ridge, strong onshore flow and atmospheric river activity promoted copious amounts of precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, though above-normal temperatures kept snow elevations higher than normal and limited the ability of this precipitation to substantially build early season snowpack across the Cascades, northern Sierras, and northern Rockies. Little to no precipitation was observed across the Southwest through the Plains under the anomalous ridge, and much above-normal temperatures promoted degradations of drought depictions for portions of the Rockies, Great Plains, and the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley. Across the East, an active northern stream saw the development of several storm systems which brought widespread precipitation across portions of the South, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and the Northeast. Warming temperatures across the region caused much of this precipitation to fall as rain, melting much of the snowpack built during the previous week in the process. This precipitation led to some modest improvements to drought and abnormal dryness, though more widespread drought reductions were limited due to frozen soils and streams across New England, and groundwater conditions that are slower to respond to precipitation across the mid-Atlantic region. Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures led to degradations across much of Florida.

Northeast

A series of storm systems brought widespread precipitation to the Northeast Region, with most locations receiving at least 0.5 inches of liquid equivalent, and greater amounts extending from Delaware and Maryland's Eastern Shore through New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, and southern New England. Warming temperatures ahead of the strongest cold front allowed much of this precipitation to fall as rain, melting away a good portion of the snowpack that had accumulated late in the previous week. While the double input of new precipitation and snowmelt was beneficial, drought reductions were generally limited. This is due to several factors. Across New England, soils and streams have largely frozen over, limiting the potential for new precipitation to substantively alter soil moisture. Across the mid-Atlantic, while boosting topsoil moisture, the precipitation was largely insufficient to improve groundwater conditions and streamflow conditions. Therefore, drought improvements were limited to portions of eastern Maryland, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, and southern New Jersey where precipitation totals were greater than 1 inch. Some reductions were also noted in north-central Pennsylvania and southern New York, based on improving SPI indicators. In contrast, D2 conditions expanded across the West Virginia Panhandle and western Maryland due to worsening streamflow and groundwater conditions.

Southeast

Across the Southeast, light to moderate precipitation (0.25 to 1 inch, locally heavier) fell across much of Alabama, portions of the eastern Florida Panhandle, across the Piedmont and southern Appalachians of Georgia and South Carolina, and much of North Carolina and Virginia. With temperatures ranging near normal on average through the week, this precipitation was largely insufficient to yield drought reductions, but did help prevent further degradations where it fell. Small areas of reductions are noted across southeastern Virginia, where accumulations exceeded an inch, as well as a small portion of Florida's Nature Coast. In contrast, drier conditions were noted across parts of northern Georgia, the remainder of Florida, and the coastal plain of Georgia and South Carolina. In these regions, some drought degradations did occur, including the higher elevations of northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina, far southeastern Georgia, and portions of the Florida Peninsula.

South

Following another week of subnormal precipitation, and with temperatures ranging above-normal, the South saw further drought degradations. A small area of heavier precipitation fell across far South Texas, resulting in reductions of D1 and D0, but drought expanded or intensified across the southern Texas plains, Hill Country, and the Piney Woods. Drought also intensified along the Red River Valley, and degradations were more widespread across the eastern two thirds of Oklahoma and Arkansas. In Arkansas, local observers continue to report drying lakes and ponds, while in Oklahoma, record warmth, strong winds, and persistently below-normal precipitation promoted expansion of D2 and D3 conditions. Across Tennessee, precipitation was more generous, and a swath of 1 inch or more fell across the central portion of the state where D0 conditions are currently in place. Despite this rainfall, 60- to 90-day precipitation levels remain below-normal, and SPI values continue to indicate dry conditions. Therefore, no improvements were made across Tennessee.

Midwest

Across the Midwest, clipper-type systems brought snowfall along the US-Canada border, with some Lake Effect snows falling across Michigan. Mostly dry conditions were observed for the remainder of the upper Mississippi Valley, Iowa, and western Missouri. Light precipitation fell east of the Mississippi River, with accumulations increasing towards the east. Overall, only small changes in the drought depiction were made across the region. A reassessment of impacts from prior precipitation led to reductions of D1 and D0 for northwestern Iowa, and a localized area of 0.5 inch precipitation following up on snowfall in early December allowed some modest reductions of D1 across southeastern Iowa and western Illinois. A small reduction of D0 also occurred across central Ohio, where accumulations exceeded 1 inch. In contrast, drier conditions and above-normal temperatures led to some degradation across south-central Missouri and far southern Illinois. No change in drought depiction was made across the upper Great Lakes region, where streams and soils have mostly frozen over.

High Plains

A lack of snow cover, much above-normal temperatures, and periods of strong winds led to an unusual amount of winter degradation across the High Plains region.D2 expanded across western Nebraska, with expansions of both D1 and D0 occurring across central and eastern parts of the state, where precipitation was generally less than 0.2 inch equivalent, and high temperatures soared as high as the 70s. A small area of D1 expanded across southeastern Kansas, and across Colorado, D4 was introduced to Eagle and Pitkin Counties. D0 expanded across the Plains of Wyoming, where warm temperatures, strong winds, and a record lack of snow cover promoted worsening impacts. Drought depictions remained unchanged across the Dakotas, where soils and streams have largely frozen for the winter.

West

Across the West, a series of atmospheric river events brought copious amounts of precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, with Washington and the northern Rockies continuing to be pounded, and precipitation extending further south later in the period to blanket western Oregon and northern California, which had missed out on heavy precipitation during AR events earlier in the month. While the repeated bouts of heavy precipitation continue to ease lingering drought conditions west of the Cascades, the picture is a bit more mixed at higher elevations. Temperatures during the period ranged above-normal, keeping snow elevations higher than average, which prevented the much above-average precipitation from building up substantial snowpacks in the Cascades and northern Sierras. In fact, SWE values remain below 50-percent of average across the Cascades, northern Sierras, Blue Mountains, and the Bitterroot Range, though conditions have started to improve across the remainder of the Northern Rockies. While not an immediate drought concern during the winter months, a lack of snow cover could present problems during the Spring and Summer melting season, and additional precipitation along with colder temperatures are needed to recover the snowpack conditions during this wet season. Based on these considerations, D1 and D0 were reduced along the western front of the Cascades and across small portions of the Intermountain West, but drought conditions were maintained across the higher elevations. A small area of D0 reduction was made across northern Montana, where recent storminess brought improvements to 30- and 60-day SPI values.

Caribbean

Widespread moderate rainfall overspread Puerto Rico and the northern Caribbean region during the past 7 days, which was sufficient to forestall degradation from D0 to D1 across Puerto Rico, but not enough to reduce the coverage of D0. Little to no rainfall fell across the southern coast of Puerto Rico, where some areas of D0 remain. Based on better conditions at the 30 to 90 day time scales, no D1 or expanded D0 was introduced into these drier areas.

At the start of the drought week, relatively light amounts of precipitation (generally less than a quarter-inch) were observed over the U.S. Virgin Islands, with significantly higher totals (about 1 inch) measured across Puerto Rico. Easterly winds were strongest across exposed coastal areas, but remained light and variable inland. These enhanced coastal winds were related to surface high pressure building over the North Atlantic. After a mostly dry and sunny Friday, patches of moisture returned to the region over the weekend, embedded in northeasterly flow, accompanied by the passage of a weak surface trough Sunday evening. Slightly drier conditions were observed towards the end of the drought week. Satellite-based (SPoRT GPM IMERG) precipitation estimates for the USVI so far this drought week (through 12z Dec 22) were generally under a half-inch.

Pacific

Across much of Alaska, a lack of snow cover has led to some difficulties in snow-based transportation, and an increased risk for ground freezing at greater depths than normal. Persistent northerly flow brought dry, colder than normal conditions to the state during the last week, which did not help snowpack conditions. Therefore, areas of D0 were introduced to portions of northwestern and southwestern Alaska due to the very low snow cover, which is unusual for this time of year.

Beneficial rainfall overspread much of Hawaii during the past week, with the highest accumulations occurring over the northwestern Islands. This precipitation resulted in widespread 1-category improvements across Niihau, Kauai and Oahu. Drought depictions remained unchanged across the southeastern islands, however, where drought conditions have been more entrenched and recent rainfall was insufficient to spark much improvement.

This drought week across the USAPI domain was characterized by a complex circulation pattern with many moving parts. These included trade-wind troughs, areas of trade-wind convergence, influences from the Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) and fragments of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), shear line fragments, the tail-end of a broad mid-latitude frontal system, and an occasional surge in the trade winds. These surges were associated with strengthening surface high pressure over Japan and the adjacent western North Pacific Ocean. They resulted in gusty winds, elevated seas, pulses of northeasterly swell, and increased surf along northern and eastern facing shorelines/reefs of many USAPI islands. For American Samoa south of the equator, a trough and associated weak area of low pressure brought heavy rainfall and elevated wind speeds to the territory late in the drought week.

Looking Ahead

During the next few days, atmospheric river activity will continue to bring copious moisture to the West, with the focus of heavy coastal rainfall and mountain snows shifting to California. Heavy precipitation is forecast to push inland to the Great Basin and portions of the Rockies. Later in the week, as the Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging builds over the northeastern Pacific, a break in AR activity is favored through the end of Week-1. Further east, persistent ridging is forecast for the central US, leading to mostly dry conditions and much above-normal temperatures for the Plains. Across the East, a blocking ridge retrograding towards Greenland from Europe will promote backdoor front activity and cold air damming, as well as providing a focus for additional precipitation and winter storm activity. The WPC 7-day QPF forecast shows precipitation amounts exceeding an inch across most of the Northeast Region, much of which may fall as snow or a wintery mix across the mid-Atlantic. Mostly dry conditions are favored for the Southeast during Week-1, with light rain possible across the lower Mississippi Valley. During Week-2, CPC forecast indicate enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation for the western third of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities across the Southwest. A slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation extends along the northern tier to the Great Lakes region, while below-average precipitation is favored for much of the eastern seaboard. Strong anomalous ridging favors above-normal temperatures for most of the CONUS, with blocking potentially leading to below-average temperatures across the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, while below-normal temperatures are favored for Alaska, with drier than normal conditions expected along the southern tier of the state.

Top 10 Ag Stories of 2025: No. 6 - Financial Losses, Labor Fears Tested America's Farmers in 2025

OMAHA (DTN) -- 2025 was always going to be a tough year for crop farmers and that's largely how it played out.

Crop farmers came into the year facing financial losses from the 2024 crop, while also waiting for details on $10 billion that eventually became the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP), along with another $21.5 billion in aid for natural disaster losses in 2023 and 2024.

One small moment that stood out was in early February when 11 farmers testified before the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee. Jennifer James, a rice farmer from Arkansas, was the last to speak, but her comments captured the real-life struggles many farmers were facing. Rice farmers were staring at four consecutive years of negative margins projected at $345 an acre, James said. In hindsight, the net returns for rice farmers actually came in worse than that.

"Nothing in my area pencils out," James told senators. "This is not economically sustainable."

Her voice trembled as James described the conversations her family was having at home.

"Just last week we had one of the most difficult business conversations my family has had. Is farming really worth it? What scares me is we are only one farm family of thousands having these conversations."

That was just one perspective from crop producers who grappled with financial strains.

Corn prices coming into 2025 were down 40% from two years earlier, but input prices such as fertilizer prices and interest rates on operating loans remained stubbornly high.

An analysis by economists at the University of Illinois shows the average corn farmer had a net return of minus $153 an acre this year. For wheat farmers it was minus $130 and for soybeans it was minus $83. Cotton farmers had net returns of minus $383 per acre, while rice net returns were minus $446 an acre. Sorghum farmers also had a net return of minus $160 an acre.

And yet, all eight fertilizers DTN tracks on a weekly basis are anywhere from 10% to 28% higher in price than they were a year ago.

In an interview with DTN last week, James said she was going over crop budgets for 2026.

"Everything is still negative, even much more negative than it was last year at this time. So, I question our sanity sometimes," she said.

LESS CAPITAL SPENDING

The losses translated into fewer farmers buying equipment as well. Despite the promise of new tax breaks for equipment expenses, capital spending by farmers across multiple Federal Reserve districts "declined at the fastest pace since early 2020," according to a recent Kansas City Fed report.

Manufacturers saw that decline in capital spending, and worker layoffs continued. Deere & Co.'s last quarterly report in November showed revenue was down $3.5 billion or 17% during the past year in Deere's Production & Precision Ag division. CNH Industrial reported weeks earlier that the company reduced production of Case IH and New Holland tractors as CNH lowered its outlook for the year.

"Market fundamentals remain uncertain and challenging for our farmers, and it is difficult to say if we will enter 2026 with more visibility or even more momentum," said CNH CEO Gerrit Marx on a November analysts' call, Reuters reported.

FARM FINANCE

While fewer farmers were in the market for equipment, farmers still increased their loan needs in 2025.

Agricultural banks reported during the past year that farm loan balances are up 5% at more than half of all agricultural banks while about one-quarter of those banks saw farm loan balances increase 10%. Debt is rising at agricultural banks for both real estate and non-real estate loans, according to a Kansas City Fed report.

One in five banks in the Chicago Fed region also has raised their collateral requirements for farm loans over the past year while none eased their collateral requirements.

Delinquency rates for farm loans remain low, about 1.3% overall, but the delinquency rates continue to tick upward slightly as well.

LABOR-IMMIGRATION INTERWINED

Agricultural labor has been a long-standing crisis that became more political and controversial as the Trump administration launched its mass deportation plans.

The spring and summer were filled with videos of farm raids, especially in California where the Trump administration heightened immigration enforcement efforts.

Lisa Tate, an orchard farmer in southern California, said on a call earlier this month with the group Grow It Here that her county just north of Los Angeles dealt with farm raids. The deportation push and aggressive tactics have left a lasting impression on farm workers and others in the community who are in the U.S. legally.

"It was very scary at first and there was a lot of outrage and a lot of protests out this way," Tate said. "The farming community was pretty concerned about it and we still are. But I'm also seeing it just -- within the community in general, just a change in the way we are doing things."

Area residents who would normally participate in a local nonprofits' Christmas events were leery about law enforcement and whether attending those events would be safe, Tate said.

"There have been some lasting -- I don't know -- cultural changes that started here and that's really sad, because we should really be valuing the people who are harvesting our crops and taking care of our food and getting it to us. They shouldn't be scared in their own communities."

Questions about farm raids often reached the White House. Trump repeatedly told his Cabinet and others that immigration officials needed to ensure farmers were not losing workers. Trump reiterated that message, though there was never any formal actions to back away from employer raids.

"I don't want to take people away from the farmers," Trump told a crowd in Iowa on July 3. The president added farm labor is hard work. "They bend over all day. We don't have too many people who can do that. They work very hard."

Zach Rutledge, an assistant professor at Michigan State University, said farm labor faces a growing problem of aging workers with as high as 40% of the workforce also are in the country illegally. Younger workers, both legal and undocumented, also are looking for better opportunities in other sectors. Farmers are experiencing a growing labor shortage that puts more pressure on wages and will also lead to higher food prices.

"We have an aging workforce that's not being replenished by younger immigrants the way it once was back in the '90s and the '80s," Rutledge said.

Contrary to popular belief, farmers didn't exactly lose large numbers of workers this year despite the immigration raids on farms in some states. There was a dramatic swing in the number of farm workers, which hit 2.37 million in March of 2025, but rapidly fell by 209,000 workers by May -- the sharpest decline in three years. Still, farm employment in November 2025 was 2.189 million, about 13,000 fewer jobs in agriculture than in November 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).

H-2A REGS AND PAY CUT

Farmers also got some needed reprieves when it comes to the temporary H-2A guestworker program. The Department of Labor (DOL) first ended enforcement of the Biden administration's 2024 "Farmworker Protection Rule" that had been blocked by court injunctions across at least 17 states.

After years of complaints about H-2A wages, USDA announced it would end its Agricultural Labor Survey that had collected wage data from 18,000 farmers nationally. Farmers who use H-2A workers blamed the survey for DOL's annual Adverse Effect Wage Rate changes that had increased how much producers are required to pay H-2A workers in each state.

In early October, DOL then changed how hourly wages are set for temporary foreign workers. The changes in the rule are projected to save H-2A employers $2.46 billion per year. United Farm Workers (UFW) sued the Trump administration in November over the wage changes, which the group argued would undercut wages for American farm workers and "risks dramatically expanding the exploitive H-2A" program.

Farmers are still waiting for Congress to reform the H-2A law to allow year-round workers. One of the biggest Republican advocates in Congress for reforming the program, Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., also announced he'll retire at the end of 2026 rather than seek re-election.

TARIFF BATTLES

High expenses and farm labor were just a few of the challenges farmers faced financially. There were also the non-stop tariff battles -- but that's a whole other story.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (12/23)

Top 10 Ag Stories of 2025: No. 7 - A Year of Scorched Earth at USDA With Mass Firings, Canceled Grants and Reorganization

OMAHA (DTN) -- The Trump administration blew into Washington in January like a wildfire moving across a drought-stricken prairie.

They called it the Department of Government Efficiency -- DOGE. For five months, billionaire Elon Musk led a small group of computer-savvy contractors who took credit for canceling billions in contracts and indiscriminately firing federal employees. Musk left in May after a fallout with President Trump and DOGE now no longer exists. Musk and the administration now find themselves in myriad legal battles over DOGE's actions.

Still, the scorched-earth campaign created by DOGE continues to smolder.

The federal government's biggest organization for humanitarian assistance, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), was dismantled with more than 80% of its programs eliminated. That forced Congress to move nearly $2 billion in annual farm commodity purchases for foreign aid to USDA as a way to try to ensure some food aid continues to flow. The full scale of cuts to USAID has not been made public by the State Department, but the food aid cuts forced the World Food Program to eliminate or drastically reduce aid to several countries this year.

Across the federal government, the Trump administration initially moved to terminate an estimated 200,000 or so "probationary" employees, meaning they had under two years of federal service.

DOGE staff had been at USDA for at least two weeks at that point. USDA called the initial terminations as a "workforce optimization" move.

A federal board ruled the firings were illegal, so the Trump administration fired the board.

Federal judges have ruled in multiple cases that the indiscriminate firing of thousands of probationary employees was illegal.

USDA's Office of Inspector General (OIG) on Dec. 17 released a report highlighting USDAs job terminations. By mid-June, USDA saw a total of 20,306 employees leave their jobs, the report stated.

In April, USDA and other federal departments gave veteran employees the option to quit with six months of pay if they chose to take it. As many as 15,114 USDA employees took the deferred resignation package (DRP).

Along with the DRP, another 1,636 USDA workers were terminated, 1,996 resigned and 1,280 retired.

That included roughly 5,860 employees in the U.S. Forest Service and 2,673 employees at the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), or 22% of staff. The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) lost 2,105 employees, or 25% of its workforce. Rural Development lost 1,745 employees, or 36% of its employees. Another 1,647 employees at the Agricultural Research Service (ARS), or 23%, also left.

By the end of the year, the White House Office of Personnel Management posted there were 249,000 fewer federal employees than at the beginning of the year.

While trying to tackle avian influenza, USDA accidentally fired researchers who were working on the disease. At least 28 people were initially fired at the country's brand-new $1.25 billion National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF) in Kansas -- the country's only level four biosecurity facility for foreign animal diseases.

A few weeks later, speaking to state agricultural directors, Rollins acknowledged some firings were rash though she backed efforts to slash USDA programs.

"I am proud to work with the Department of Government Efficiency, with DOGE, to streamline inefficiencies across the United States Department of Agriculture," Rollins said. "Does that mean we may make some mistakes along the way? Yes, but it also means we'll realize that and fix it while we're streamlining and making it more efficient."

DOGE initially moved to close 111 USDA office contracts across nine agencies, which included 36 NRCS offices and 22 Farm Service Agency offices. At one point, DOGE's website claimed it had canceled rental contracts in every federal office in one Arkansas county.

DOGE's role at USDA reached a point in late April that any FSA loan of $500,000 or more, or any loan to a corporate entity, would need approval by both the Secretary's office and DOGE. DTN detailed that FSA on average approves more than 1,000 loans over $500,000 annually.

USDA also froze payments for more than 1,000 contracts as Rollins and her team moved to eliminate contracts over terms that involve diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI). "We will end identity politics, identity celebrations and DEI here at USDA and across the federal government," Rollins said in her first speech to staff.

At the 100-day mark of the administration, Rollins said her staff had canceled 3,000 contracts and grants totaling $5.5 billion.

Conservation program payments to producers were also frozen as USDA tried to separate program dollars that came from the farm bill from those that came from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

In early March, more than 10,000 farmers who grow food to sell locally lost $1.13 billion in federal support when USDA stated it would not honor Local Food Purchase Assistance (LFPA) and Local Food for Schools (LFS) cooperative agreements. The cuts came despite state agricultural directors calling for the programs to be permanently funded. Rollins said they were COVID-era programs that were no longer needed, though the administration at the same time was championing the importance of whole foods as part of the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda. By December, USDA was touting its work to promote local foods through farm-to-school programs.

In July, USDA leadership began plans to reorganize department around five regional hubs that would move more than 2,600 staff positions out of the Washington, D.C., area. That also includes closing the Beltsville, Maryland, Agricultural Research Center, known as BARC. The regional hub cities are: Raleigh, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Indianapolis, Indiana; Fort Collins, Colorado; and Salt Lake City, Utah.

Reflecting how the pendulum swings, USDA created a plan to reorganize and create regional centers to bring workers closer to the people they serve. That came after the administration in June ended $360 million in grants for 12 Regional Food Business Centers created in 2023 by the Biden administration to provide grants to help small farmers and rural businesses expand or develop their businesses. While some of the centers were still getting started, they had issued 450 grants that USDA said they would honor.

The administration's reorganization plans were delayed by a six-week federal shutdown this fall. In early December, USDA released a summary of public comments it received on reorganization. Out of 14,000 unique comments, the sentiment -- 82% -- was overwhelmingly negative. More than 2,185 comments were about BARC with 92% opposed to closing the research center despite arguments by leadership that the facility is outdated and costs too much to maintain and upgrade.

USDA plans to complete its reorganization by the end of 2026.