June Washington D.C. Update

June could offer the clearest picture yet of which parts of the Trump administration’s agenda are gaining traction. Major decisions are looming on taxes, trade, artificial intelligence, energy, transportation and federal spending, while Congress begins work on legislation that could reshape key sectors of the economy. Across Washington, POLITICO’s policy teams are tracking the debates, deadlines and decisions that will help shape the second half of the year. — IRS cuts and the administration’s $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund are set to dominate Treasury Secretary Scott Besset's Hill appearances.   — The House transportation bill cleared committee with broad bipartisan support as a Sept. 30 funding deadline approaches.   — Congress will begin debating a federal privacy bill that would override more than 20 state data laws. Agriculture — Farm bill talks: Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans are moving closer to unveiling their version of the farm bill after the House passed its package — a major step forward for legislation that has been stalled for years.   Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) is aiming to introduce text and mark up the bill in June. His proposal is expected to exclude some of House Republicans’ most controversial provisions in a bid to attract Democratic support, but it could still face obstacles over nutrition policy.   Democrats who criticized Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act for cutting $187 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are seeking to delay new requirements that states cover part of the cost of benefits. The GOP megabill also included a $65 billion investment in farmer support programs, clearing the way for a budget-neutral farm bill this year.   The GOP-led House passed its farm bill 224-200 on April 30 after months of uncertainty over whether Republican leaders could secure enough support. The vote marked the farthest a farm bill has advanced in Congress since the most recent reauthorization was signed into law in 2018.   Farm-state Republicans have been pressing GOP leaders in both chambers to make progress on the package, which includes bipartisan updates aimed at helping farmers facing high production costs, rising bankruptcies and economic uncertainty.   — USDA shake-up: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is continuing to roll out details of the department’s sweeping reorganization plan, which would ask most Washington-area staff to relocate to five offices around the country and close several key USDA offices in the capital region.   USDA expects relocated employees to move this summer, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden said earlier this year. The department is beginning to announce which agencies and offices will move to specific states, including the Food and Nutrition Service and employees working on food safety, economics and research.   The plan has already drawn resistance from Democrats and some Republicans in Congress, who warn the relocation could trigger a mass exodus of experienced USDA workers and researchers.   — Food price squeeze: Food costs remain elevated and a critical political pressure point ahead of November’s midterm elections.   Consumer prices in April rose at their fastest rate since May 2023, partly because of rising energy costs tied to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war.   Several other pressures in the food and agriculture sectors are contributing to price stress, including higher costs for fertilizer, diesel fuel and packaging materials.   Farmers are also bracing for a super El Niño weather pattern that could bring extreme rains and drought, threatening supplies of U.S. agricultural goods.   The Trump administration is exploring policy changes it hopes will lower food costs as affordability remains a central concern for voters.   — Trade: Agriculture lobbying groups are continuing to press the Trump administration to prioritize new markets for U.S. farm goods as producers navigate trade uncertainty and volatile commodity prices.   Farm products were a key focus of President Trump’s recent visit to Beijing. The White House has said China will buy at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually over the next three years.   Farm groups will continue watching whether Trump can secure additional international market opportunities after months of market uncertainty and disruption from his tariff rollout. — Grace Yarrow Trade — Tariff talks intensify: The Trump administration’s trade negotiators face a busy month as several key July deadlines loom.   A delegation of U.S. officials will meet in India June 1 through 4 negotiators work towards finalizing an interim trade agreement, the next step after the two countries reached a framework agreement in February. As part of that deal, the Trump administration agreed to lower tariffs on some Indian goods and Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S. energy sector.   — USMCA clock ticking: Meanwhile, Canadian trade negotiators will be in Washington this week as talks on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement heat up. The three countries are conducting a mandatory six-year review of the North American trade pact ahead of a July 1 deadline to extend it.   Most observers expect negotiations to continue beyond that date, leaving the USMCA in place while its long-term future remains uncertain.   The U.S. and Mexico have effectively acknowledged that reality — scheduling a third negotiating round in Mexico City the week of July 20, after wrapping up a first round last week. A second round of talks has been penciled in for June 16-7, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.   USTR is also closely monitoring developments in Europe, where the European Union is working to finalize legislation lowering tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and some agricultural products under an agreement struck last summer between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.   Trump had threatened to hike tariffs on European cars if the EU does not lower the tariffs, as promised, by July 4.   The European Parliament's trade committee will vote on the legislative package on June 2, with the plenary vote expected on June 16 or 17. — Ari Hawkins, Emily Cadei Financial Services — Fed’s new era: The Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee will meet June 16-17 for its first interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh. President Donald Trump's hopes for a rate cut have likely been derailed by the war in Iran, which has pushed up oil prices and fueled inflation. Still, the post-meeting press conference will offer early clues of Warsh's vision for the institution.   — Prediction markets: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is nearing the release of new guardrails for the fast-growing prediction markets industry. The agency recently submitted a proposal for White House review that is focused on the industry, a key step that suggests the plan could be released within weeks — if not days. The CFTC has not disclosed the proposal’s contents, but the agency previously suggested that it was exploring a range of concerns around the markets, including the threat of insider trading, what constitutes “gaming” and blockchain-based markets.   — Regulators on Hill: The Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould, National Credit Union Administration Chair Kyle Hauptman and FDIC Chair Travis Hill will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on June 4. The committee also plans a markup later this month, along with hearings on financial innovation and market fairness, financial crime, disaster recovery and other issues.   — Housing bill: A housing affordability package that passed the House overwhelmingly in May is awaiting Senate action once again after lawmakers made additional changes. The Senate could take up the measure as soon as this month, whether through an amendment, a floor vote or another legislative vehicle.   — Crypto bill: Senators are hoping to bring landmark cryptocurrency legislation to the floor as soon as this month. The measure would overhaul the regulatory framework for digital assets. The Senate Banking and Agriculture committees have already advanced their respective portions of the legislation, which must now be merged into a single package. GOP senators are still negotiating changes with key Democrats to secure the bipartisan support needed for passage. One key outstanding issue is an ethics provision that Democrats hope to put into the bill to address concerns about the Trump family’s crypto ventures. The timing of a floor vote remains uncertain.   — Capital proposal: Bank regulators this month will begin receiving comments on their Basel capital proposal, which are expected to highlight divisions within the industry. Regulators are also continuing to refine rules governing crypto assets and stablecoins. Meanwhile, banks are preparing for the next phase of the fight in the Senate over the CLARITY ACT, legislation aimed at establishing a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets in the United States. — Mark McQuillan Tax — Bessent’s big days: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will offer testimony on his department’s fiscal 2027 budget before the Senate Finance Committee on June 3, and to the House Ways and Means Committee the following day.   Democrats will likely continue skewering Bessent over the administration’s budget request for Treasury, which calls for budget reductions that could further hobble the IRS and its tax enforcement operations. Those proposed cuts which congressional Republicans support, have raised concerns among Democrats about whether the IRS will retain the resources needed to audit wealthy taxpayers, an effort that brings in outsized revenue for the agency.   But the hearings will also give Democrats an opportunity to press Bessent on a new issue that’s emerged since his last appearance before the Senate Appropriations Committee on April 22: the dismissal of President Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS and the creation of a $1.8 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” to settle claims from people say they were targeted by the federal government for political reasons, including individuals who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.   — On that lawsuit…: The legal headaches surrounding Trump’s IRS settlement are only growing. A federal judge is demanding answers to allegations that Trump used the lawsuit as a vehicle to engineer the $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, after 35 former federal judges urged the court to reopen the case and investigate whether it amounted to a “fraud on the court.”   The scrutiny extends beyond the fund itself. Critics have also zeroed in on an addendum signed by acting Attorney General Todd Blanche that bars the IRS from auditing Trump, his sons and their businesses in currently pending matters. Capitol Police officers assaulted on Jan. 6, watchdog groups and other plaintiffs have filed separate challenges seeking to block the fund, while tax experts continue to debate whether such an audit exemption is legally enforceable.   And the courts are already stepping in: A federal judge in Virginia on Friday temporarily blocked the administration from distributing any money through the fund and scheduled a June 12 hearing on whether the freeze should remain in place. Additional details could also emerge in the coming weeks about how Blanche and the administration intend to oversee — and ultimately distribute — the money.   — Think of the children: Trump Accounts — the tax-advantaged investment accounts for children born between 2025 and 2028 — will launch in July. Before that, the administration is expected to issue additional regulations and begin an education campaign explaining how the accounts, authorized as part of Republicans’ 2025 tax overhaul, will work. — Danny Nguyen Education — Funding fight ahead: Lawmakers are set to consider how much funding the Education Department should get in fiscal 2027.   The House is poised to unveil its proposal for the Labor-HHS-Education spending bill this month. The measure funds federal education programs, and the House Appropriations Committee is also scheduled to take it up.   President Trump wants to eliminate the Education Department, which is requesting $75.7 billion in new discretionary budget authority — a roughly $3 billion cut from fiscal 2026. Congress will ultimately determine the agency's funding levels, but it’s unclear how House Republicans will approach that task after proposing deep cuts to the department in recent years. The Senate hasn’t released its proposal to fund the department, and the two chambers will have to reconcile any differences between their bills.   — Student aid squeeze: Lawmakers will have to contend with a multibillion-dollar shortfall in funds for the Pell Grant, which helps students pay for college, and weigh the Trump administration’s proposal to consolidate K-12 funds.   — DEI funding fight: Lawmakers will also consider the Trump administration’s proposal to eliminate the Minority-Serving Institutions grant program, which supports colleges with significant enrollments of Hispanic, Black, Asian and Native students. The administration has determined these are unconstitutional race-based programs. But the GOP-led Congress approved increases for the MSI program in fiscal 2026.   — District leaders grilled: Elsewhere on Capitol Hill, the House Education and Workforce Committee is expected to question school district leaders over parental rights, alleged “legal abuses” and inappropriate content in schools. Loudoun County Public Schools Superintendent Aaron Spence and San Francisco Unified School District Superintendent Maria Su are set to appear before the panel this month. House Education Chair Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) also subpoenaed Chicago Public Schools CEO Macquline King to testify at the hearing. — Mackenzie Wilkes Defense — Pentagon spending debates incoming: Lawmakers will kick off work on annual defense policy and spending bills this month, marking the first major test of Trump's mammoth $1.5 trillion military budget.   The House Armed Services Committee will lead off on Wednesday with a marathon debate on its version of the $1.15 trillion National Defense Authorization Act.   Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) is betting the lower price tag will be more palatable to Democrats who have slammed the administration’s budget request as wasteful. The House measure does not include the $350 billion Trump is seeking through a separate party-line megabill.   Democrats are likely to push for amendments on a range of issues, particularly the war in Iran.   —Wicker’s balancing act: The Senate Armed Services Committee will follow with a closed-door session during the week of June 8. Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) will need to balance pressure from defense hawks in his party, who favor higher military spending, with the need to secure enough Democratic votes to pass the bill.   — Spending bill rollout: House appropriators will also roll out their first effort at a Pentagon spending bill. They will mark up annual defense appropriations legislation at the subcommittee level on June 11, followed by full committee consideration on June 24.   — Reconciliation hurdle ahead: Trump's plans for a roughly 50 percent hike to military spending will depend on Republicans uniting around another reconciliation package.   GOP leaders are expected to continue negotiations over that measure after clearing separate legislation to fund immigration enforcement priorities.   Still, passing a bill that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in additional defense spending faces an uphill climb in an election year. — Connor O'Brien Health Care — Animal testing: Congress is closing in on a new law aimed at reducing the use of animals in testing new medical products. The House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously approved the FDA Modernization Act 3.0, sponsored by Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) on May 21, sending it to the full House.   The Senate passed a version of the bill, sponsored by Cory Booker (D-N.J.), by unanimous consent last year.   The bill would require the Food and Drug Administration to update its regulations to encourage alternatives to animal testing. They could include computer modeling or organic chips — microdevices containing human cells that can mimic how the body responds to a drug.   — MAHA priority: The bill is part of a broader push by Congress and the FDA to reduce reliance on animal testing, a priority for Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement.   Congress previously enacted the FDA Modernization Act 2.0 as part of a 2022 omnibus spending package. That law removed a longstanding requirement for animal testing in nonclinical drug studies, which are generally conducted before human trials.   Carter has argued the FDA did not fully implement that legislation, creating the need for a follow-up bill.   The FDA announced in April 2025 that it would begin phasing out animal testing requirements for certain drugs, including monoclonal antibody therapies that help the immune system fight disease.   — Doctor pay fight: A bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing to update a decade-old Medicare payment formula that routinely recommends cuts to physician reimbursement rates.   A discussion draft from Reps.John Joyce (R-Pa.), Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) and Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) would revise the formula to account for inflation's impact on the cost of providing care. The lawmakers believe the change would produce payment increases rather than cuts.   The annual effort to override the formula often requires Congress to identify additional Medicare funding. Lawmakers have not always done so, leaving physicians to absorb lower reimbursement rates. — Health Care Pro Team Transportation — Surface bill gets rolling: The House Transportation Committee last month advanced H.R. 8870, a $580 billion surface transportation reauthorization bill that includes a new fee for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids along, along with rail safety language championed by the White House.   The vote marks the first steps toward enacting the five-year legislation into law before existing authorities expire on Sep. 30. The bill cleared committee on a bipartisan 62-2 vote — a notable outcome in a deeply divided House and an encouraging sign for Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.), who is hoping to complete the measure before retiring at the end of the 119th Congress.   Graves said he wants to get the bill to the floor “as quick as we can” but is still working with House leadership on timing. The Senate has yet to release legislative text or announce plans for its version of the bill.   — Air safety worries: Staff-level negotiations are underway to reconcile competing House and Senate aviation safety bills drafted in response to the January 2025 midair collision over Washington that killed 67 people. But some observers, including victims’ families, worry a final agreement may not be reached before the end of the year.   Graves, who authored the ALERT Act, remains committed to his approach, while Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is standing by the central provision of his ROTOR Act.   Cruz’s bill would require many aircraft nationwide to install Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast In, or ADS-B In, technology by late 2031 — a requirement Graves has criticized.   — Sean Duffy’s road trip fallout: Senate Democrats are asking questions about Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s Great American Road Trip, a family excursion funded through a nonprofit backed by sponsors including Toyota, United Airlines and Boeing — companies regulated by the Transportation Department.   The top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, Patty Murray of Washington, tangled with Duffy during a hearing last month and later called on the inspector general of DOT to launch an inquiry into Duffy’s participation in the reality-show-style journey.   "The American people deserve to know who paid for what and what those sponsors got in return. If Secretary Duffy has nothing to hide, he should welcome this investigation,” Murray said in a statement to POLITICO.   The controversy could become Duffy’s most significant political challenge to date. — Chris Marquette Technology — Share your view on ‘The View’: June 22 marks the Federal Communications Commission’s deadline for initial public comments on whether ABC’s “The View” qualifies as a bona fide news program exempt from the agency’s equal-time rules.   Those longstanding rules require broadcast television programs to provide comparable airtime to rival political candidates. In January, FCC Chair Brendan Carr issued guidance removing exemptions for daytime and late-night programs, raising concerns about the implications for broadcasters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.   The FCC opened an investigation into “The View” in February following its interview with Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, arguing the program may not qualify for the exemption under the agency’s revised approach.   ABC, which is owned by Disney, has defended the show’s news status and warned that Carr’s approach could chill speech.   Disney is also battling the FCC on other fronts, including Carr’s recent move to require the company’s eight broadcast television stations to seek early license renewals years ahead of schedule.   — Kicking off privacy talks: The House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold its first hearing on a federal data privacy law.   The SECURE Data Act,led by Rep. John Joyce (R-Pa.) with the support of E&C Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), would preempt more than 20 state privacy regulations. The measure borrows provisions from existing state statutes that allow consumers to request data deletion and direct companies to stop selling their personal information.   The hearing before the Commerce, Manufacturing and Trade subcommittee will be Democrats’ first opportunity to publicly weigh in on the legislation.   Joyce and Republican staffers who worked on the bill believe it can attract bipartisan support, though the committee’s ranking member Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) is critical of the legislation.   — House AI talks continue: Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) is soon expected to introduce a framework for artificial intelligence legislation despite it facing major headwinds this year.   Obernolte told POLITICO in December that he was finalizing a bill that would codify aspects of President Trump’s executive order blocking state AI laws, and has since expressed frustration for the repeated delays.   Those delays have stemmed in part from negotiations with Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.), as the as the lawmakers work toward a proposal that would preempt certain state laws aimed at regulating frontier AI developers and reducing catastrophic risks.   The affected laws include measures in California and New York that require leading AI companies to disclose information about new models and identify major safety or security concerns.   Trahan, a four-term member eyeing a leadership role next year, is eager to clinch a bipartisan accord despite not having the explicit backing from Democratic leaders. As talks continue, she will have to balance criticism from Massachusetts lawmakers, AI safety advocates and some voters against the political benefits of demonstrating bipartisan dealmaking credentials. — John Hendel, Alfred Ng and Gabby Miller Cybersecurity — What makes it into the AI EO? June could finally bring President Trump’s long-awaited executive order on artificial intelligence security. The biggest question is how much the directive has changed from a version Trump shelved last week following a last-minute intervention by a former adviser concerned about overly burdensome regulation.   The most contentious issue is whether — and for how long — the government should gain early access to Silicon Valley’s newest AI models to assess their safety risks.   The order could also include other provisions of significant interest to the national security community, including a new clearinghouse for identifying and triaging software vulnerabilities affecting critical infrastructure operators.   The White House may also revisit which agencies are responsible for implementing the order. A draft order obtained by POLITICO in late May placed the Treasury Department — rather than CISA — in charge of the clearinghouse and excluded the Commerce Department from the review process, despite its existing role in evaluating advanced AI models.   — Will FISA get punted again? A divisive surveillance authority is set to expire again June 12 after lawmakers failed earlier this year to reach consensus on reforms aimed at strengthening privacy protections.   Some lawmakers believe momentum is building for a long-term extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows the government to collect communications data from foreigners located outside the United States.   Privacy advocates, however, argue the authority undermines Fourth Amendment protections because it can sweep in communications involving Americans who interact with surveillance targets overseas.   — What makes it into the defense policy bill? Lawmakers are preparing to negotiate the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act, the annual defense measure that has increasingly become a vehicle for cybersecurity legislation.   Key proposals include measures to strengthen U.S. cyber cooperation with allies and new Pentagon rules governing the deployment of AI technologies.   Lawmakers are set to begin negotiating the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act, the must-pass defense policy bill that has become a popular vehicle for advancing federal cyber measures. Key provisions include measures to strengthen U.S. cyber cooperation with allies and new AI deployment rules for the Pentagon. — John Sakellariadis

April Ag Prices Received Index Up 2.3 Percent; Prices paid Up 1.5 Percent

April Prices Received Index Up 2.3 Percent  

The April Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 135.4, increased 2.3 percent from March but decreased 1.8 percent from April 2025. At 108.9, the Crop Production Index was up 10.8 percent from last month and 7.7 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 154.6, decreased 2.0 percent from March, and 8.1 percent from April last year. Producers received higher prices during April for cattle, milk, broccoli and lettuce but lower prices for market eggs, hogs, sweet corn and rice. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In April, there was increased monthly movement for strawberries, milk, broilers and lettuce and decreased marketing of corn, cattle, soybeans and hay.  

April Prices Paid Index Up 1.5 Percent  

The April Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 163.0, is up 1.5 percent from March 2026 and 9.8 percent from April 2025. Higher prices in April for feeder cattle, other services, diesel, and nitrogen more than offset lower prices for feeder pigs, supplements, and self-propelled machinery. 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (6/1)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 61 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1576400 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (5/28)

During the week, a highly variable weather pattern brought wide temperature swings to much of the contiguous United States. An unusually cold airmass that had settled over the Plains at the start of the week pushed eastward, bringing a rapid and stormy end to the early season heat wave across the Eastern Seaboard. In contrast, the West baked under much above normal temperatures. By mid-week, much above-normal temperatures had returned to the Plains, with daily maximum temperatures climbing into the upper 90s in some locations. As temperatures began to rebound across the East, cooler air overspread the Pacific states by the end of the week.

The strong temperature gradients that set up across the Nation, coupled with ample Gulf moisture streaming northward resulted in widespread heavy and persistent precipitation, with many locations exceeding two inches from eastern Texas and Oklahoma northeastward to the mid-Atlantic states, and isolated instances of 6 or more inches in some spots. Widespread rainfall, albeit with lighter accumulations, fell across the north-central Plains as daily temperatures warmed, but mostly dry weather prevailed across the upper Mississippi Valley and western Corn Belt. West of the Rockies, mostly dry weather prevailed for most of the week, but showers associated with a strong cold front overspread the Northwest at the very end of the period.

Northeast

Hot temperatures at the beginning of the week yielded to a cool, unsettled pattern across the Northeast region. Widespread rainfall overspread the region, convectively driven initially along a cold front, followed by steady stratiform precipitation. Soaking rains fell across the southern portion of the region, with 2 to 4 inches of precipitation common across West Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania, and amounts decreasing towards northern New England. The steady rainfall and cooler temperatures were ideal for recharge, boosting soil moisture and streamflows across the mid-Atlantic states. Therefore, widespread drought reductions were introduced to West Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania, especially where accumulations were greater than 3 inches. Despite the short term benefits, longer term drought impacts to groundwater and reservoirs remain. This is also evident in the drought indicators, with short term SPI values returning to near normal, but longer term SPI values remaining negative. Based on these evolving impacts, the drought classification across Pennsylvania and Maryland was changed from short and long term drought to long term drought only. Further north, improving groundwater conditions yielded modest reductions of abnormal dryness across parts of Maine and Vermont. In contrast, drier conditions over southeastern New England resulted in small areas of degradation in Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts.

Southeast

A slow-moving frontal boundary and ample moisture advecting northward from the Gulf of America resulted in copious rainfall across the Southeast. Weekly accumulations of 2 to 6 inches fell across all of Mississippi, western and northern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, much of Georgia, and portions of the southern Appalachians and Piedmont. Accumulations closer to an inch fell across east-central Alabama, central Georgia, the Atlantic coastal plain, and portions of North Carolina and Virginia. Rainfall during the week was above-average and successfully overcame the high evapotranspirative demand that is typically in place this time of year. Therefore, widespread drought reductions were introduced across the region, with the highest coverage of improvements across Alabama and Mississippi. Heavy rainfall over the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia began to chip away at the western portion of exceptional (D4) drought, though improvements were more meager across the rest of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, where spottier accumulations came up against highly entrenched drought conditions. Beneficial rainfall yielded reductions across the piedmont region of the Carolinas and the Blue Ridge, while lighter rainfall led to status quo across the coastal plain and portions of northern North Carolina and central Virginia.

South

Widespread heavy rainfall overspread the Southern Region, with amounts increasing from west to east. Accumulations of 2 to locally more than 5 inches fell across most of Tennessee, engendering widespread drought reduction. Rainfall was locally heavy but a bit spottier across Louisiana and Arkansas, which also saw widespread drought reduction but with less coverage. Across Texas, heavy rainfall across the eastern half of the state yielded drought improvements and also localized flooding. Across North Texas, localized convection brought relief to some areas, but hot conditions resulted in degradation where precipitation did not occur.

Midwest

Another mostly dry week across the northern Mississippi Valley and western Corn Belt exacerbated short term dryness, with reports of browning grass and increased irrigation across the region, though longer term drought indicators remain favorable. Due to these short term impacts, abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced to northwestern Indiana, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, northeastern Iowa, and along the Mississippi headwaters region. Light rainfall overspread the Great Lakes region, which was sufficient to maintain stability. In contrast, heavy rainfall (2 to 6 inches) fell across the Ohio Valley, from southern Indiana across much of Ohio and all of Kentucky. In these regions, abnormal dryness quickly gave way to localized flooding and standing water, resulting in substantial reductions in the depiction of drought and abnormal dryness. In fact, 2-class changes occurred across parts of northern Kentucky and southern Ohio, where accumulations were the highest.

High Plains

As below-normal temperatures transitioned back to a hot pattern across the High Plains, widespread precipitation moved through the region. Areas of convection brought up to 2 inches of rain to portions of eastern Nebraska and eastern Colorado, while amounts were generally an inch or less elsewhere. This precipitation was sufficient to bring some drought reduction across northern and northeastern Colorado, but drier conditions across southeastern Colorado and Kansas, coupled with hot temperatures, resulted in degradation. A sharp cutoff in precipitation was also noted across the far western Dakotas, where small areas of degradation were noted along the borders with Wyoming and Montana.

West

Mostly dry weather and above-normal temperatures dominated the Western Region during the week sparking some small-scale degradation across Montana, Idaho, and New Mexico, where the effects of the meager winter snow cover are beginning to be felt in falling streamflow values. Status quo was maintained west of the Rockies for the most part, as reservoir conditions remain good across California during a climatologically dry time of year. At the end of the week, a strong cold front brought abnormal moisture to the Northwest and northern Rockies. While not sufficient to substantively alter the drought depiction, a modest reduction in abnormal dryness was noted in far northwestern Washington.

Caribbean

Persistently suppressed convection over the last few weeks across the Caribbean region, which is partly tied to an atmospheric response to warming ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific as well as an Indian Ocean and Pacific MJO event, resulted in the introduction of D0 across portions of southern Puerto Rico during previous USDM releases. During this week, showers and thunderstorms overspread Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, While accumulations were fairly low across the D0 areas, the precipitation was sufficient to stave off further degradation at this time.

Dry conditions persisted across the U.S. Virgin Islands this week, with all locations remaining in short-term abnormal dryness. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.47 inches of rain, bringing the May month-to-date total to 1.54 inches as of May 25, which remains below the monthly normal. Groundwater levels at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well were 14.39 feet below the land surface on May 26; analysis shows that water levels have mostly declined since October 19, 2025 (when the level was 7.56 feet), despite a slight, temporary recovery in mid-April. Over the past year, this groundwater level has dropped approximately 4.33 feet from the 8.96 feet reported on May 26, 2025. This localized dryness is backed up by the 1-month SPI, which indicates dry conditions on the island, though longer 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month SPI timescales still show a slight residual wet signal.

Meanwhile, a total of 0.38 inches of rain was reported on St. Croix at Henry Rohlsen Airport this week, leaving the month-to-date total at 1.06 inches as of May 25. The depth to water at the Adventure 28 Well was 21.76 feet below the land surface on May 26, reflecting a steady and severe decrease over the past year. This is a drop of 7.83 feet compared to this time last year, when the groundwater level sat at 13.93 feet on May 26, 2025. Reflecting this prolonged deficit, the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month SPI values all confirm prevailing dry conditions on St. Croix, with only the 9-month SPI maintaining a wet signal.

On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport reported a weekly rainfall total of 0.23 inches, bringing its May month-to-date total to 2.52 inches as of May 25. The depth to water at the Grade School 3 well was measured at 9.16 feet below the land surface on May 26. Groundwater levels here have been on a steady decline since April 20, 2026 (when the level was 4.13 feet), dropping 5.03 feet in just over a month; furthermore, this level is down 7.12 feet from the 365-day maximum of 2.04 feet recorded on October 19, 2025. SPI values confirm these emerging deficits, showing dry conditions at the 1-, 3-, and 6-month timescales, while longer-term SPI timescales for the island were unavailable.

Pacific

Cool, wet weather continued across much of Alaska during the week, which was favorable for moisture recharge. Accordingly, the remaining areas of abnormal dryness (D0) that were over the Kenai Peninsula and the Katmai National Park were removed in this week's USDM.

Across Hawaii, above-normal precipitation continued, though the heaviest amounts fell across the windward slopes of Maui and the Big Island instead of where abnormal dryness (D0) continues. Drought indicators continue to reflect improving conditions; however, the vegetative health index (VHI) remains quite low across Maui. Therefore, status quo was maintained this week.

Wet conditions dominated American Samoa this week, with Pago Pago reporting a weekly rainfall total of 6.33 inches, pushing the May month-to-date total past 20 inches as of May 26. Additionally, Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge reported substantial weekly rainfall totals of 7.23 and 6.33 inches, respectively. Consequently, Pago Pago remains completely free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness as wet conditions persisted. The Koror COOP site reported a weekly rainfall total of 5.18 inches, bringing its month-to-date total to 16.63 inches as of May 26.

Conditions were wetter than normal over most of the Mariana Islands this week. Rota and Guam reported weekly rainfall totals of 2.04 and 1.44 inches, respectively—well above the islands’ one-inch minimum weekly threshold to meet water needs. Saipan received 0.85 inches, and though this fell slightly below the weekly threshold, Saipan and the rest of the Marianas remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Conditions were wet across most of the Federated States of Micronesia. Nukuoro, Pohnpei, Kosrae, Lukunoch, Chuuk, Kapingamarangi, and Woleai reported weekly rainfall totals of 9.14, 9.02, 8.28, 4.82, 3.74, 3.36, and 2.91 inches, respectively, keeping all of these locations free of drought and abnormal dryness. Yap reported a weekly rainfall total of 1.59 inches; although this is below the two-inch minimum weekly threshold, Yap remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to previously wet conditions. Meanwhile, data for Pingelap, Fananu, and Ulithi were insufficient to make an assessment this week.

Wet conditions prevailed across the Republic of the Marshall Islands, where every monitored island surpassed the two-inch minimum weekly threshold necessary to meet water needs. Weekly rainfall totals for Jaluit (4.23 inches), Utirik (3.31 inches), Wotje (3.07 inches), Majuro (2.97 inches), Mili (2.21 inches), Kwajalein (2.07 inches), and Ailinglapalap (2.01 inches) successfully kept all locations free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Looking Ahead

During the upcoming week, a late season storm system across the West is forecast to bring abnormal moisture to California, Oregon, and Washington, with precipitation spreading eastward to the northern Rockies by mid-week. The heaviest accumulations are forecast across the southern Cascades. Periods of convection are favored across the Plains states throughout the week, with the WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation outlook showing a potential for 1 inch or locally more across portions of Nebraska and Kansas, where Gulf moisture advection is most pronounced. Across the eastern third of the CONUS, unsettled weather is favored to continue across the Southeast, with the focus of heaviest precipitation shifting towards Florida and the south Atlantic coastal plain. A slow moving cold front is forecast to push east during the period, maintaining showery weather across the Deep South while cooler and drier conditions overspread the Corn Belt and Northeast.

During Week-2, the trough over the East is favored to rapidly de-amplify, with temperatures quickly moderating. Above-normal temperatures are favored across the West and northern tier of the CONUS on the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook, with mostly near-normal temperatures the most likely outcome across the South and Southeast regions. Unsettled weather and continued precipitation may play a role in keeping hot weather at bay across the southern tier. The CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the Four Corners states eastward along the southern tier to the Atlantic coastline as far north as Virginia. Near normal precipitation is favored elsewhere, except for a small wet signal over the Pacific Northwest. Above-normal precipitation is favored for eastern Alaska, while above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation are both favored for Hawaii.