Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/10)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/9)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 57 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1757733 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index dropped from 136 in December 2025 to 113 in January 2026. The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points while the Future Expectations Index dropped 25 points. Among the five indices that make up the AEB Index, the largest decline was in the question asking participants whether U.S. agriculture would have good times or bad times in the next five years. The index for this question fell from 122 to 88, marking its lowest point since September 2024. Respondents also expressed greater concerns about agricultural exports compared to last month. The January barometer survey took place from January 12-16, 2026. As a point of reference, the January WASDE report was released on January 12.

One-half of the producers surveyed reported that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago. Moreover, looking ahead 12 months, 30% expected worse financial performance, compared to 20% who expected better financial performance. At a reading of 47, the Farm Capital Investment Index decreased by 11 points from the previous month, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. Only 4% of the survey respondents indicated that they planned to increase farm machinery purchases in the upcoming year.

Since 2020, each January barometer survey has included questions about farmers’ operating loans for the upcoming year. The percentage of respondents who said they expect to have a larger operating loan this year compared to a year ago rose to 21%, up from 18% last year. In a follow-up question, producers who expect to have a larger operating loan were asked about the reasons for the increase. This year, 31% of producers who expect their loan size to increase said it was because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year, up from 23% in 2025, 17% in 2024, and only 5% in 2023. These results are consistent with respondents’ concerns about their financial performance.

Farmers’ perspective on U.S. agricultural exports was more pessimistic in January. Responding to a broad question about the future of agricultural exports, 16% of the respondents looked for exports to decline over the next five years. In contrast, only 5% of the respondents in December expected exports to decline. When asked to focus more specifically on soybeans, a key agricultural export, 21% of corn and soybean producers in January said they expect soybean exports to decline over the upcoming five years, up from 13% of growers who felt that way in December. Increasing competition from Brazil is weighing on producers’ minds. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports versus Brazil’s, with 44% indicating they were very concerned.

Respondents remained optimistic about short-term farmland values in January, but optimism regarding long-run land values waned. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained unchanged at 117. After reaching a new record high of 166 in December, the long-term index declined to 152 in January. Alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates were cited as the three factors having the most influence on farmland values.

This month’s survey included a question related to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December. Corn and soybean producers were asked about the use of these payments. Over 50% of the respondents indicated that these payments would be used to pay down debt. Another 25% of respondents said that they would use these payments to improve working capital. The remainder noted that these payments would be used for family living (10% of respondents) or to invest in farm machinery (12% of respondents).

As in the last few months, producers were asked if the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track”. The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment declined sharply in January amid growing concerns about the agricultural economy. The percentage of producers who expected there to be bad financial times in the next twelve months increased from 47% in December 2025 to 59% in January 2026, while the percentage of producers who thought U.S. agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years increased from 24% to 46%.

Respondents were also more concerned about exports in January, with 16% expecting exports to decrease in the next five years. When asked about operating loans in the upcoming year, 21% indicated that they expected their operating loan to increase. Although an increase in input costs was the primary reason for this increase, 31% indicated that the increase was due to unpaid operating debt from prior years. Finally, despite the announcement of the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments in late December, the percentage of producers who thought the U.S. was heading in the right direction dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Taken together, these results suggest that producer sentiment shifted notably at the turn of the year, with farmers beginning 2026 in a more pessimistic frame of mind.

Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report for Arizona is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 7% very short, 1% short, 92% adequate. Subsoil moisture 7% very short, 1% short, 92% adequate. Alfalfa hay harvest condition 54% none, 3% light, 6% moderate, 37% active. Alfalfa hay crop condition 5% fair, 61% good, 34% excellent. Barley planted 32% and emerged 31%. Durum wheat planted 47% and emerged 26%. Pasture and range condition 29% very poor, 16% poor, 38% fair, 17% good. January precipitation was mixed, with pockets of above average moisture in the northeastern and southeastern corners, while the remainder of the State recorded at or below average moisture. Average temperatures ran at or above average. Survey comments indicated ditch clean-up was done in some counties, and irrigation water had been turned on. Ranchers across several counties reported severely limited vegetation and failed crops which has resulted in herd downsizing. Supplemental feed and water were necessary to support livestock herds. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 32 percent of the State was drought free, compared with no drought free areas a year ago. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 28 percent, and severe drought (D2) at 6 percent. 

CALIFORNIA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 90% adequate and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 95% adequate and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 55% good and 45% excellent. Winter wheat condition 30% good and 70% excellent. As of February 2, Snowpack content was 7.2 inches in the Northern Sierra region, 10.1 inches in the Central Sierra region, and 11.9 inches in the Southern Sierra region. January is typically one of the wetter months for California, however this January saw about three weeks of dry weather. Winter forage planting continued throughout the month and was completed by month’s end. Winter wheat, oats, and barley were well established and growing well. Alfalfa fields continued to grow slowly. Field prep for spring and summer crops began. Winter vegetables continued to grow. Planted onions have sprouted and leaves emerged from the soil. Carrot harvest continued in the southern San Joaquin Valley but was hampered by wet weather at times, with occasional rainfall limiting field access and delaying harvest. Cauliflower, celery, garlic, and kale harvests were ongoing. While nearing the end of dormancy, almond orchards were being cleared of brush. Mummy shaking was winding down. Field crews weeded and sprayed almond orchards for pest control. Buds on almond trees were enlarging and will begin to open in February. Pre-emergent herbicides and dormant pesticides sprays were applied to fruit orchards. Stone fruit orchards were pruned throughout the month with leaf buds beginning to open by month’s end on the earliest varieties. Kiwi harvest was complete and vines were pruned. Pomegranate trees began entering dormancy and were pruned. Grape vineyards were pruned and vines were tied. Navel orange, grapefruit, pummelo, mandarin, and lemons were harvested; however wet weather and fog affected harvest conditions, rind quality, and pack out percentages. Avocados were harvested. Olive orchards continued to be pruned and cleaned. Blackberry, raspberry, blueberry and strawberry harvests were ongoing. Calving was underway and expected to continue into next month. Sheep grazed on retired cropland and on harvested grain and alfalfa fields. Conditions were ideal for pasture growth with cool, mild temperatures and some rainfall. Both irrigated and non-irrigated pastures were in good to excellent condition. 

IDAHO: The average January temperature was above normal across the State. Snowpack levels were below normal with limited precipitation. Pastures and crop fields were dry, with low soil moisture. Calving progressed well due to the mild weather, and hay stocks remained good, but producers remained concerned about the continued dryness and its potential impacts on crops and livestock if conditions did not improve. Producers transitioned from pastures and started feeding hay. Winter cutworms were observed feeding on fall wheat at lower elevations in Nez Perce County. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 27% very short, 48% short, 25% adequate. Subsoil moisture 29% very short, 53% short, 17% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 21% poor, 59% fair, 18% good, 1% excellent. Winter wheat - wind damage was 25% none, 57% light, 16% moderate, 2% severe. Winter wheat - freeze and drought damage 78% none, 20% light, 2% moderate. Winter wheat - protectiveness of snow cover 93% very poor, 1% poor, 2% fair, 4% good. Pasture and range condition 47% very poor, 24% poor, 18% fair, 10% good, 1% excellent. Livestock grazing accessibility 72% open, 11% difficult, 17% closed. Cows calved 2%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 93%. Ewes lambed 2%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 92%. January precipitation was average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran at average to well above average. Survey comments supported the noted weather information. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 43 percent of the State was drought free, compared with just over 3 percent January 28, 2025. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 13 percent, severe drought (D2) at 8 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at just over 1 percent. 

NEVADA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 35% short, 50% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 10% very short, 15% short, 70% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% very poor, 30% poor, 40% fair, 15% good, and 10% excellent. January was a dry month in Nevada with little to no precipitation. As of January 27, 45% of the State was abnormally dry, while 20% was in Moderate Drought and 1% was in Severe Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

OREGON: Temperatures were above normal throughout the State. Snowpack was below normal throughout the State. In Western Oregon, blueberry buds swelled, and agronomic crops looked good. Cool season pasture grasses resumed active growth early due to drier and warmer weather. Many deciduous shrubs and trees began to bud, and bulbs began to grow. Field activities centered on manure applications. Cows were let out during a 2 week period with low precipitation. Some fruit trees presented bud development. In north central Oregon, fall seeded crops progressed rapidly due to the rainfall and above average temperatures. Grasses greened up, and conditions were favorable for calving. Challenges like predator pressure remain on livestock operations. Snowpack was noticeably lower compared to normal years. Stripe rust symptoms were observed on susceptible varieties of soft white winter wheat. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 2% very short, 45% short, 53% adequate. Subsoil moisture 40% short, 60% adequate. Pasture and range condition 1% very poor, 8% poor, 22% fair, 69% good. Winter wheat condition 10% fair, 90% good. Hay and roughage supplies 6% short, 90% adequate, 4% surplus. Stock water supplies 5% very short, 25% short, 65% adequate, 5% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 7% fair, 47% good, 46% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 19% fair, 79% good, 2% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 83%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 45%. Cows calved 4%. Ewes lambedfarm flock 3%. Ewes lambed-range flock 2%. Mild temperatures along with a few snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of January. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Beaver, Cache, and Grand Counties noted mild and abnormally dry conditions during January, with below–normal snowpack. February 2, 2026, was 57 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Beaver County reports noted that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues. 

WASHINGTON: In Washington, January was unusually dry and warm. Western Washington observed 14 consecutive days without measurable rain, and temperatures were unseasonably warm. The dry streak ended by the end of the month. Dry January weather worsened snow water equivalent in the Cascade Range and across most of Washington. In Central Washington, farmers were worried about the impact of a lack of snow and the potential risks of drought and wildfires. Northeast Washington had the best snowpack, especially near the Canadian border. East Central and Southeast Washington were both abnormally mild and dry. There was little to no snow on the ground, with minimal in the mountains. The winter wheat crop looked good; however, producers were raising concern about the lack of moisture and the potential impact on water resources this coming spring and summer. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 43% very short, 24% short, 33% adequate. Subsoil moisture 47% very short, 28% short, 25% adequate. Winter wheat condition 13% very poor, 30% poor, 51% fair, 6% good. Cows calved 2%. Ewes lambed 4%. Livestock condition 1% poor, 16% fair, 79% good, 4% excellent. Pasture and range condition 8% very poor, 31% poor, 37% fair, 21% good, 3% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 3% short, 88% adequate, 9% surplus. Stock water supplies 18% short, 73% adequate, 9% surplus. January precipitation varied from average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran at average to well above average. Survey comments noted extreme dryness across several counties. Producer concerns centered around diminished snowpack across most mountain ranges in the State. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 18 percent of the State was drought free, compared with just under 1 percent drought free on January 28, 2025. Other drought categorizations included, abnormally dry (D0) at 44 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 21 percent, and severe drought (D2) at 17 percent.