Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (12/30)

Top 10 Ag Stories of 2025: No. 2 - Growers Expected to Set New Record Average Yields Despite Seasonal Setbacks

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- Despite pests, disease and everything Mother Nature could dish out throughout the growing season -- from frosts and flooding to droughts and derechos -- U.S. row-crop farmers still managed to set what are expected to be record average yields for both corn and soybeans in 2025.

While USDA won't release final crop production data for 2025 until January, the agency's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released earlier in December forecast average corn yield at 186 bushels per acre (bpa), besting the 179.4-bpa average from 2024. Total corn production and harvested acres also are expected to reach new all-time highs at 16.752 billion bushels (bb) from 90 million acres, surpassing the 15.341 bb harvested from 86.5 million acres in 2023.

Soybeans also set what could be a new record average yield at 53 bpa, eclipsing the 52.6 bpa from 2016. Total production was down as both planted and harvested acreage was at its lowest level since 2019.

COULD HAVE BEEN EVEN LARGER CROP

Had it not been for weather events leading to losses and crop abnormalities in some areas and the onset of some late-season foliar diseases in others, the 2025 corn and soybean crop could have been even larger.

In some regions, the season got off to a quick start as conditions allowed for early and/or rapid planting. But heavy rains across the upper Delta and lower Ohio Valley regions delayed planting, made replanting necessary or prevented planting all together.

A burst of heat in May led to issues with rapid growth syndrome in some young corn stands. While in other places, rapid growth at later stages led to reports of "tassel wrap," a relatively uncommon condition where the uppermost whorl becomes tightly wrapped around the tassel as it begins to emerge. When tassel wrap occurs, the timing of pollen shed and silk emergence can be affected, resulting in varying degrees of ineffective pollination and poor kernel set, depending on the severity.

While how a crop starts is important, so is how it finishes. Later in the season, a lack of precipitation across the lower Midwest and to the east into the Ohio Valley meant that corn didn't pack on as much kernel weight and displayed more tip back than farmers would like. Soybeans in some places struggled to fill pods with beans no larger than BBs.

Diseases also crept into the crop, especially where farmers cut back on fungicide applications to mitigate expenses. In corn, tar spot, southern rust and gray leaf spot wreaked the most havoc. Outbreaks of red crown rot, sudden death syndrome and white mold dominated disease reports from soybeans.

Insect pressure was more isolated; injury was relatively minor when it occurred. Most notably, corn leafhoppers, which can transmit corn stunt disease, were found farther north than usual for the second consecutive season.

Although reports of all-time best yields for many farmers would usually bring satisfaction, that wasn't the case in 2025 for most. Instead, row-crop farmers became victims of their own agricultural success as commodity prices remained low in an environment of abundant global supply and uncertain demand.

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (12/29)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 45 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2240913 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

Top 10 Ag Stories of 2025: No. 3 - How the One Big Beautiful Bill Redefined Taxes and Farm Policy in 2025

OMAHA (DTN) -- What began as a line from incoming President Donald Trump became the defining domestic policy law of 2025.

Trump wanted "one big, beautiful bill" to pass his agenda for tax cuts, mass deportations and energy policies. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act became just that -- a sweeping budget reconciliation package that Trump wanted on his desk before Independence Day.

After failing to get a farm bill done in the two prior years, Congress also added an expansion of the farmer safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, often called OBBBA or OB3 for short. The budget reconciliation package ultimately added as much as $61.8 billion in spending on farm programs over 10 years.

The legislation set up a monumental battle over how the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts would be partially offset by roughly $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. The Congressional Budget Office projects the OBBBA will increase the national debt by $2.8 trillion over 10 years.

Passing the OBBBA was a high mark of the year for President Trump. He held a rally on July 3 at the Iowa State Fairgrounds to celebrate its passage. He signed the OBBBA on Independence Day at the White House.

"With this bill, every major promise I made to the people of Iowa in 2024 became a promise kept," he said at the rally.

Trump added, "Very simply, the One Big Beautiful Bill will deliver the strongest border on Earth, the strongest economy on Earth, the strongest military on Earth, and ensure the United States of America will remain the strongest country anywhere."

FARMERS BENEFIT

Farmers were among the winners in the legislation. When the bill passed, Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., said on social media that Congress effectively passed a seven-year farm bill.

"That includes priorities like updating reference prices for this crop year, stronger and more affordable crop insurance, as well as updates to the sugar program and improvements to livestock disaster programs. These are the core pieces of the farm bill and vital to farm country," Hoeven stated on X.

OBBBA raised reference prices under the Prices Loss Coverage program (PLC) and the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) program. For the 2025-26 crop year, USDA will provide producers with the higher of the calculated ARC or PLC payment rates after the marketing year ends. ARC/PLC payments next fall are projected at $13.5 billion.

Addressing a long-time challenge with base acres, the legislation allows USDA to add up to 30 million new base acres tied to planting history from 2019-23. USDA will have to come up with a prorated formula for determining eligible acres that will be added to the commodity program. However, the law does not allow producers to reallocate their current base acres.

In addition, Congress made several changes to crop insurance, including expanding the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) to 90% coverage at the county level while boosting the federal subsidy to 80% of premium costs.

TAX CUTS IN PACKAGE

Among the tax law changes that will affect farmers:

-- A 20% deduction for qualified business income is made permanent, which includes a minimum $400 deduction for businesses with at least $1,000 in income.

-- Updated and expanded 100% bonus depreciation for equipment purchases is made permanent.

-- For smaller businesses, OBBBA also increases the Section 179 deduction to $2.5 million for any business buying $4 million or less in equipment.

-- The estate-tax exemption is made permanent and increased to $15 million for individuals and $30 million for married couples starting in 2026.

-- Full expensing for research and development for farmers or businesses using innovative practices in their operations.

-- A new 100% depreciation allowance for nonresidential property, which will include manufacturing facilities built before 2031. That provision includes language implying the bonus depreciation can be applied for buildings used for agricultural and chemical production.

-- Any capital gains resulting from the sale of farmland to qualified farmers can be paid in four annual installments rather than all at once. Such farmland must have been in agricultural production for the past 10 years to qualify and remain in agriculture for another 10 years after the sale occurs.

-- Rural bankers also will receive a 25% deduction on interest income from qualified rural real-estate loans.

-- For biofuels, the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit is extended and modified. The law extended the 45Z tax credit to the end of 2029 but also cuts the top rate for 45Z from $1.75 a gallon to $1 a gallon. Transportation fuels developed from animal manure would also qualify for the credit.

-- The Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Credit doubled from 10 cents a gallon to 20 cents a gallon.

-- A $10,000 deduction on auto loan interest for couples earning $200,000 or less.

-- The state and local tax (SALT) deduction increases to $40,000 for taxpayers earning under $500,000.

SNAP-MEDICAID CUTS

The OBBBA also cut $185 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) over 10 years, a program that spends about $123 billion a year for roughly 42 million people on the program. The law increased SNAP work requirements while pressing on states to reduce SNAP error rates. The law, though, also temporarily shields states with the highest payment error rates before having to pay a share of SNAP costs. Still, most states will now have to pay a percentage of SNAP benefits starting in 2028, which could cause further cuts to benefits.

Groups such as leaders of food banks said the SNAP cuts would put more pressure on charitable services when demand for food aid is already high.

"In effect, we cut spending on SNAP to double subsidies to farmers," said Jonathan Coppess, associate professor of farm policy at the University of Illinois, during an event in Iowa earlier this month.

Coppess added, "This is the end of the farm bill as we've known it. For 50 years, the core deal has been food assistance paired with farm programs. That deal is now broken. OB3 is the fatal, final blow."

The legislation also didn't extend the premium tax credits for the Affordable Care Act. That led to gridlock in Congress that eventually caused the longest government shutdown in history. Still, Congress could not come to terms on a health-care bill to extend the tax credits, which affect health insurance costs for roughly 24 million Americans.

SNAP cuts also became part of the shutdown fight as the Trump administration effectively used SNAP benefits as leverage, which put pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown. SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans weren't paid throughout most of November as a result.

OBBBA REBRAND

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" became unpopular enough among some voters during the summer that the White House and Republicans in Congress in September sought to rebrand the legislation as the "Working Families Tax Cut Act."

Tax refunds for average Americans will be larger because of the OBBBA, according to an analysis from the Tax Foundation earlier this month. The law lowers individual income taxes by an estimated $144 billion.

The act does allow certain service workers to deduct up to $25,500 in tips and workers can deduct up to $12,500 in overtime pay as well. Seniors over age 65 also get a $6,000 bump in their standard deduction.

The SALT cap increase, the deduction for seniors, the overtime deduction and an increase in the standard deduction are the biggest impacts most average families will see. Average tax refunds will increase about $800, the Tax Foundation stated.

Still, the legislation is weighted more heavily toward top earners and corporations compared to middle-income families while lower-income people see limited tax benefits as they face potential SNAP and Medicaid cuts.