OMAHA (DTN) -- Serving as president of the American Soybean Association for most of the year, Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland was likely the most quoted farmer in the United States in 2025.
China stopped buying U.S. soybeans in the spring and didn't book any buys for the fall crop until U.S. and Chinese officials brokered a deal in late October. In the meantime, the U.S. helped out Argentina, which led Chinese buyers to quickly snatch up Argentinian soybeans.
"The frustration is overwhelming," Ragland said at the time.
Tariffs once again put U.S. soybeans at a competitive disadvantage to Brazil and Argentina soybeans at a time when Brazil keeps expanding its production.
"We gave Brazil and Argentina another excuse to compete with us," Ragland said to DTN this week. "It's a basic business principle that a lot of expense and effort goes into getting a customer on board, and it's a lot easier to keep an existing customer than it is to get a new one. Unfortunately, our largest customer, China, has gotten into a habit of going elsewhere to buy their soybeans and we're seeing that it's hard to get them to come back."
Soybeans and the blocked trade with China became just one element adding to struggles for commodity farmers, who also faced an estimated 12% increase in the costs of various inputs, partially due to tariffs.
President Donald Trump aided farmers with an executive order in November ensuring key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers would not be subject to reciprocal tariffs.
Still, the tariff disputes were a key factor weighing on markets in early December when the president announced a $12 billion aid package to farmers.
TRUMP SHAKES UP ECONOMY
Soybeans were just one small piece of Trump's tariff policies, but they became a pressure point for crop farmers as the president evolved tariffs from a trade bargaining chip into a much broader tool for reshaping U.S. economic policy.
Trump began by using emergency powers to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China because of fentanyl.
Tariff policies, though, swung like a pendulum. In the early days, tariffs were announced then suspended, and reinstated. Trump set 25% tariffs on Canada in February then pulled them. They went into effect in March.
On April 2, the president announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs of 10% on at least 60 countries, but key trading partners were hit with higher tariffs, which included 34% tariffs on China, 24% on Japan and 20% on the European Union. The tariff on imported automobiles rose to 25%. In making his announcement, Trump pointed to some of the high tariffs other countries impose on U.S. agricultural products and automobiles.
"They have taken so much wealth from our country and we're not going let that happen," Trump said at the time. He later added, "There is no tariff if you build your plant -- your product -- in America."
SOME DEALS WERE REACHED
The tariff moves appeared to produce results. In the coming months, the president and his administration would announce deals to increase market access to the United Kingdom, including commitments to buy more ethanol, beef, cereals, fruits, vegetables and other commodities.
The White House announced a series of deals:
-- The EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the U.S. by 2028 while paying a baseline 15% tariff rate.
-- Japan agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and open its market to more U.S. products while paying a 15% tariff rate.
-- Additional deals were reached with Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam.
CHINA'S TOUGH TAKE
With China, the Trump administration pressed its case with more than tariffs. The administration designated Chinese entities as national security threats, restricting U.S. capital investments in Chinese companies. The U.S. also moved to tighten restrictions on Chinese access to technology.
Halting soybean purchases was an early move, but Chinese officials made a much bigger play in early October when the country announced sweeping export restrictions on rare earth minerals.
Rare earth minerals are needed for semiconductor manufacturing and are vital for aircraft engines as well as advanced military systems. The minerals are needed for electric vehicles and expansion of the electric grid.
And China controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth mining and has an even bigger share of processing capacity.
China's move on rare earth minerals was so significant Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer held a press conference on Oct. 15 denouncing the impact it would have globally. Greer said China's move "is not proportional retaliation" but "an exercise of economic coercion on every country in the world."
After that, both countries sought an off ramp.
By the end of October, China agreed to delay its restrictions on rare earth minerals for at least a year. The U.S. agreed to lower tariffs by 10% and suspend a rule that restricted Chinese companies' access to certain U.S. technology exports.
CHINA BUYS SLOWER THAN PROMISED
Bessent also hailed that China had agreed to buy U.S. soybeans -- 12 million metric tons (440 million bushels) immediately, followed by an annual target of 25 mmt (918 mb).
Bessent initially said China would buy its 12 mmt "between now and January" but he and other officials later tamped down that timeline.
USDA's export sales, though Dec. 11, 2025, showed sales of 5.4 mmt (198 mb) of soybean purchase commitments to China.
In 2024, China bought 26.8 mmt (984 mb), according to USDA. For the marketing year, China already had 14.6 mmt (536 mb) of soybean buys leaving U.S. ports.
Despite the commitments, the Chinese duty on U.S. soybeans remains at 13%, which includes a 10% tariff added after Trump's new tariffs were announced in April. Brazilian soybeans are subject to only the 3% most-favored-nation tariff.
VOLATILITY OF UNCERTAINTY
It's fair to say the tariffs created a roller coaster of uncertainty during the past year and injected anxiety into the markets, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. Throughout the summer, traders watched anxiously as it became clear China wasn't in the market.
"I suppose the real consequence is the summer of negotiations, and back and forth escalations and de-escalations with China specifically, really put the U.S. export program behind schedule, with another forecasted record-setting crop from Brazil limiting the window the U.S. has to operate as the most abundant supply of soybeans," Montgomery said.
Oddly enough, January soybean futures have fallen roughly $1.19 since mid-November despite China returning to the market.
Soybeans bore some of the brunt here, Montgomery noted, because corn and wheat exports were relatively unscathed by trade turmoil throughout the year. Corn is looking at back-to-back years of record export sales.
CANADIAN RELATIONS FRAYED
China and soybeans were just one trading relationship under strain. Relations along the world's longest unsecured border deteriorated sharply in 2025.
Canada's leaders would say a close relationship that had long been a strength for the country became a major vulnerability.
Trump initially blamed Canada for fentanyl imports though the data didn't support it. As soon as he got into office, the president also repeatedly goaded Canadians by suggesting it should be the 51st state.
In March, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian products not covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), except for energy and potash fertilizer imports, which became subjected to 10% tariffs.
Canada responded by imposing 25% tariffs on about $30 billion in U.S. goods. Canadians also began boycotting U.S. products.
Trump's moves also affected Canada's domestic politics. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a liberal, had become unpopular, but Canadians still chose Mark Carney over a populist Conservative leader who had embraced Trump's rhetoric before the tariff war began. Conservative Pierre Poilievre not only lost the chance to be prime minister but lost his own seat in Parliament.
The overall Canadian tariff was bumped up to 35% in August. The president then cut off trade talks after the province of Ontario ran an ad in the U.S. quoting former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariff policies.
If the conflict did anything, it galvanized Canadian nationalism. Trump's continued hostility toward Canada led provinces in the country to pull U.S. alcohol from store shelves. Liquor stores promoted Canadian products while American whiskey or wine was nowhere to be found. Grocery stores boosted promotion of Canadian-grown food products as well.
Sales of U.S. beer, wine and distilled spirits to Canada dropped by $380 million through the first nine months of the year, or 70% compared to a year earlier.
California wineries saw their sales plummet. Jim Beam halted bourbon production at one of its Kentucky distilleries for 2026 as well.
The decline in alcohol sales was a big driver in lowering overall agricultural export sales to Canada. Through September, the last data available from USDA, agricultural exports to Canada are down 6% for the year, or about $1.3 billion.
By the end of November, Carney said U.S. tariffs and the uncertainty they have created "will wipe $50 billion from our economy -- the equivalent of $1,300 for every Canadian."
Carney has laid out plans to diversify its oil, steel and lumber trade to reduce the country's dependence on the U.S.
AFFORDABILITY
Trump began facing questions about affordability in the fall as consumers complained about high prices. Countries such as Brazil were facing 50% tariffs, which pushed up the costs of some everyday items.
In a speech earlier this month, Trump blamed consumers' perceptions on his predecessor, saying, "I inherited a mess" while he and his administration seek to make the case that the country's economy is stronger now than a year ago. On Truth Social on Dec. 27, Trump credited his tariff policies for boosting the economy.
"Tariffs are creating GREAT WEALTH, and unprecedented National Security for the USA. Trade deficit has been cut by 60%, totally unheard of. 4.3% GDP, and going way up. No inflation!!! We are respected as a Country again."
A SNAPSHOT OF THE ECONOMY
-- As Trump noted, real gross domestic product increased 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, the highest since the third quarter of 2023 (4.7%).
-- In financial markets, the S&P 500 is set to finish 2025 about 16% higher than a year ago.
-- Tariffs collected by the federal government through November were $236 billion according to the Tax Foundation, compared with $79 billion for all of 2024.
-- The overall U.S. trade deficit is falling with a minus $79 billion deficit on goods in September, which was 29% below the 12-month average. Meanwhile U.S. exports rose 6.9% year-over-year in September.
-- Overall inflation for November came in at 2.7% and has largely remained lower in 2025 than 2024.
-- Unemployment remains low at 4.6%, but up from 4.2% a year ago and the highest since 2021. A portion of the job losses have been in the federal government as the administration cut 249,000 jobs.
-- The Fed's effective fund rate has fallen 4.3% to 3.6% over the past year as well, though banks have tightened credit standards, including for farmers.
WHAT'S NEXT?
As Trump has frequently pointed out, his current tariff strategy -- and use of the 1977 International Emergency Powers Act -- is now in the hands of the Supreme Court, which heard arguments over the tariffs in November. Two combined lawsuits challenge how Trump used the law to impose tariffs.
Administration officials maintain that ruling against the tariffs would "effectively disarm the President in the highly competitive arena of international trade" and stymie negotiations tied to top foreign policy goals. Such a ruling also "would destroy" framework deals with the European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and China worth "several trillions of dollars," the administration stated.
Trump has called the High Court's potential decision as one of the most important in history. Without the ability to immediately set his own tariffs, Trump said, "we will be at a major disadvantage against other countries throughout the world."
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