Drought coverage and intensity continued its decline throughout the Great Plains since the spring with additional heavy rainfall during the first week of July. Despite the extremely heavy rainfall and flash flooding this past week, long-term drought dating back multiple years remains across south-central Texas. Improving drought conditions were made to parts of New Mexico, southwestern Colorado, and Arizona, while drought expanded and intensified across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain West. Much of the Corn Belt and Midwest remains drought-free, but a continued lack of adequate precipitation led to worsening drought for northern Illinois. Following another week of summertime thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, drought ended for most of the central to southwestern Florida Peninsula. Nearly all of the East, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Lower Mississippi Valley are drought-free. 7-day temperatures (July 1-7), averaged 2 to 4 degrees F above normal across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Great Plains, Midwest, and New England. Cooler-than-normal temperatures were limited to the Southern Great Plains and portions of the Southwest. Parts of northwestern Alaska and the Yukon River Valley are designated with short-term drought, while drought of varying intensity continues for Hawaii. Although Puerto Rico currently remains drought-free, short-term precipitation deficits have increased.
Northeast
Nearly all of the Northeast remains drought-free with only a couple of small long-term drought areas designated across northeastern Maryland and southeastern Massachusetts. Increasing 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits along with above-normal temperatures the past two weeks supported the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) across eastern Massachusetts and southeastern New Hampshire.
Southeast
A continuation of summertime convection and heavy rainfall (2 to 4 inches, locally more) led to a widespread 1-category improvement to much of the central to southwestern Florida Peninsula. However, 180-day precipitation deficits and lower 28-day average streamflows support a continuation of long-term drought for small parts of central Florida and along the Gulf Coast of Florida. For the Atlantic coastal side of the Florida Peninsula and to the south of Lake Okeechobee, 30-day precipitation has averaged below-normal and varying levels of drought persist. A few small abnormal dryness (D0) areas were added close to Charlotte, North Carolina and also southeastern Alabama due to increasing 30-day precipitation deficits. Heavy precipitation, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal, occurred across drought-free areas of North Carolina.
South
A broad one to two-category improvement was made this past week to much of the ongoing long-term drought areas of Texas along with parts of New Mexico. The heaviest precipitation (5 to 10 inches, or more) occurred across the Edwards Plateau and south-central portions of Texas. According to CoCoRaHS gauge measurements from July 1-7, precipitation amounts ranged from 12 to 18 inches in eastern Burnet and western Williamson counties of Texas. Although 1 to 2-category improvements were made, a long-term drought dating back multiple years with low groundwater and reservoir levels continue. Therefore, an area of long-term drought (D1+) was maintained. The Edwards Aquifer Authority’s long-term observation wells at Medina and Uvalde counties remain in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought levels. Elsewhere, across the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, no short-term or long-term drought is designated.
Midwest
Increasing 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits, worsening soil moisture and pasture conditions, and crop stress support a 1-category degradation for much of northern Illinois. Above-normal temperatures to start July has also led to higher evapotranspiration rates and water demand. Minor degradations were made to parts of Indiana, western Ohio, northwestern Kentucky, and northwestern Missouri where short-term precipitation deficits have increased. Heavier precipitation this past week led to a reduction in abnormal dryness (D0) in eastern Lower Michigan, but moderate drought (D1) was added to western parts of Lower Michigan. Recent heavy precipitation, exceeding 2 inches, led to a 1-category improvement for parts of western Iowa. Significant rainfall (1.5 to 2 inches) supported a 1-category improvement to parts of eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Minnesota.
High Plains
Another round of heavy rainfall (1 to 2 inches, locally more) supported a 1-category improvement to parts of the Northern and Central Great Plains. April through early July is a wet time of year and 90-day precipitation, valid April 9-July 7, averaged more than 150 percent of normal for much of the Dakotas, Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and eastern Wyoming. Conversely, moderate drought (D1) across northeastern North Dakota was expanded westward due to another dry week and above-normal temperatures. The D1 is supported by the 30 to 60-day SPIs along with soil moisture indicators. Eastern Kansas has missed out on the heavy rainfall recently and abnormal dryness (D0) was added to that part of the state. Although precipitation was not that heavy across southwestern Colorado, enough precipitation along with support from SPIs at multiple time scales and the NDMC drought blends warranted small 1-category improvements.
West
Based on rapidly declining soil moisture and low 28-day average streamflows, additional degradations were warranted this week for the Pacific Northwest with an expanding coverage of moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought across Oregon and Washington. Farther to the east, extreme drought (D3) was expanded to include more of northern Idaho. Parts of Utah also had a few areas with degradations based on 28-day streamflow, soil moisture, and high evaporative demand recently. A drier end to the wet season, 60 to 90-day SPI, and low soil moisture supported an expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) across northern to central California. Following recent beneficial precipitation along with timely wetness back to the late spring, improvements were warranted for parts of north-central and eastern Montana. Drought intensity remained nearly steady for the Desert Southwest although locally heavier Monsoon showers led to a small reduction in extreme drought (D3) for eastern and southern Arizona.
Caribbean
Abnormal dryness (D0) continued to expand across Puerto Rico during the first week of July. Little to no precipitation was observed this past week across the southern and northeastern interior where D0 was added. During the past 60 days, precipitation has averaged below 50 percent throughout these areas as well. USGS monitored wells are showing an increase in depth for southern Puerto Rico, while soils are drying and crop stress is increasing.
St. Croix Island has received a 1-category degradation to abnormal dryness. A combination of low precipitation which ranged from 0.17” to 0.77” and falling well water levels contributed to this degradation. Well water levels at Adventure 28 Well are at 15.83 ft as of July 9. St. John and St. Thomas Islands continue to face abnormal dryness for this week. St. John Island’s precipitation for the week ranged from 0.16” to 0.33”. A weekly precipitation of 0.18” was recorded from the Windswept Beach station. Well water levels at Susannaberg DPS 3 Well fell to 11.55 ft. Weekly precipitation values ranging from 0.5” to 0.92” were recorded from CoCoRaHS stations across St. Thomas Island. Unlike the other two islands, well water levels at Grade School 3 Well rose to 9.21 ft. Despite this, St. Thomas will remain in abnormal dryness. Overall, the U.S. Virgin Islands faces short-term drought.
Pacific
Much above-normal temperatures during the first week of July contributed to the addition of moderate drought (D1) across northwestern Alaska and along the Yukon River Valley near the Canadian border. A slight reduction of abnormal dryness (D0) was made to better align with valley locations in eastern interior Alaska.
No changes were made this past week with extreme drought (D3) designated for parts of the Big Island. Moderate to severe drought continues for Maui along with western Molokai. Most of Oahu and Kauai are drought-free.
Heavy rains have fallen in several islands in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Majuro and Mili received 7.58” and 6.38” of rain, respectively. Jaluit has received 3.3” of rain this week as well. Due to this, Jaluit will receive a 1-category improvement to short-term severe drought. Kwajalein has received 2.47” of rain this week. Though it will stay in severe drought, there is potential for improvement if heavy rain continues for the island in the coming weeks. Other islands received inadequate precipitation and thus will remain in drought. Ailingalapalap and Utirik received only 0.83” and 1.15” of rain. Wotje’s precipitation data for this week were missing. Though given past rainfall measurements, Wotje will remain in extreme drought.
Beneficial rain has arrived in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Pingelap received 4.24” of rain. Pingelap will remain in moderate drought, with the potential for improvement if rain continues to fall in the coming weeks. Pohnpei, Woleai, Nukuoro, and Kosrae received adequate rain for the week as well, at 2.72”, 3.46”, 2.27” and 2.58”, respectively. Lukunor and Chuuk Lagoon received inadequate precipitation this week, at 0.49” and 0.7”, respectively. They do not have any drought or dryness, however.
The Republic of Palau continues to receive adequate precipitation. Koror has received 4.99” of rain this week, while the WSO Palau received 4.64” of rain. American Samoa continues to receive heavy rain. The Pago Pago Airport received 8.06” of rain, while the Siufaga and Toa ridges received 7.75” and 7.31” of rain, respectively.
Beneficial rain has also arrived at the Marianas Islands. Guam, for example, received 1.92” of rain this week. Tinian received 3.55” of rain this week, while Saipan International Airport received 1.93” of rain. AMME NPS Saipan received 1.64” of rain this week. Because of these rains, Tinian and Saipan received 1-category improvements, though they will remain in long-term moderate drought. Rota did not get as much rain as the other islands, only receiving 0.71” of rain.
Looking Ahead
From July 10 to 14, a cold front is forecast to shift southeast across the central U.S. and provide the focus for thunderstorms. The most widespread, heavy precipitation (more than 1.5 inches) is forecast across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Corn Belt, but locally heavy precipitation is expected as far south and west as the Southern Great Plains and eastern New Mexico. Daily convection with locally heavy precipitation is forecast across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially east of the Appalachians. A lull in the Monsoon will be accompanied by above-normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest. Dry weather and increasing heat are likely for the interior Pacific Northwest.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid July 15-19, 2025) favors above-normal precipitation across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S., most of Alaska, and the western Hawaiian Islands. The largest above-normal precipitation probabilities (more than 50 percent) are forecast for the Florida Panhandle, western Texas, and eastern New Mexico. Increased below-normal precipitation probabilities are limited to the Pacific Northwest. Above-normal temperatures are favored throughout the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, eastern Texas, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the East. Increased chances for below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Great Plains. The outlook leans cooler (warmer)-than-normal for southern (northern) Alaska.
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