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Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.
| Upper Snake River system is at 45 % of capacity. | |
| (Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott) | |
| Total space available: | 2240913 AF |
| Total storage capacity: | 4045695 AF |
OMAHA (DTN) -- What began as a line from incoming President Donald Trump became the defining domestic policy law of 2025.
Trump wanted "one big, beautiful bill" to pass his agenda for tax cuts, mass deportations and energy policies. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act became just that -- a sweeping budget reconciliation package that Trump wanted on his desk before Independence Day.
After failing to get a farm bill done in the two prior years, Congress also added an expansion of the farmer safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, often called OBBBA or OB3 for short. The budget reconciliation package ultimately added as much as $61.8 billion in spending on farm programs over 10 years.
The legislation set up a monumental battle over how the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts would be partially offset by roughly $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. The Congressional Budget Office projects the OBBBA will increase the national debt by $2.8 trillion over 10 years.
Passing the OBBBA was a high mark of the year for President Trump. He held a rally on July 3 at the Iowa State Fairgrounds to celebrate its passage. He signed the OBBBA on Independence Day at the White House.
"With this bill, every major promise I made to the people of Iowa in 2024 became a promise kept," he said at the rally.
Trump added, "Very simply, the One Big Beautiful Bill will deliver the strongest border on Earth, the strongest economy on Earth, the strongest military on Earth, and ensure the United States of America will remain the strongest country anywhere."
FARMERS BENEFIT
Farmers were among the winners in the legislation. When the bill passed, Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., said on social media that Congress effectively passed a seven-year farm bill.
"That includes priorities like updating reference prices for this crop year, stronger and more affordable crop insurance, as well as updates to the sugar program and improvements to livestock disaster programs. These are the core pieces of the farm bill and vital to farm country," Hoeven stated on X.
OBBBA raised reference prices under the Prices Loss Coverage program (PLC) and the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) program. For the 2025-26 crop year, USDA will provide producers with the higher of the calculated ARC or PLC payment rates after the marketing year ends. ARC/PLC payments next fall are projected at $13.5 billion.
Addressing a long-time challenge with base acres, the legislation allows USDA to add up to 30 million new base acres tied to planting history from 2019-23. USDA will have to come up with a prorated formula for determining eligible acres that will be added to the commodity program. However, the law does not allow producers to reallocate their current base acres.
In addition, Congress made several changes to crop insurance, including expanding the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) to 90% coverage at the county level while boosting the federal subsidy to 80% of premium costs.
TAX CUTS IN PACKAGE
Among the tax law changes that will affect farmers:
-- A 20% deduction for qualified business income is made permanent, which includes a minimum $400 deduction for businesses with at least $1,000 in income.
-- Updated and expanded 100% bonus depreciation for equipment purchases is made permanent.
-- For smaller businesses, OBBBA also increases the Section 179 deduction to $2.5 million for any business buying $4 million or less in equipment.
-- The estate-tax exemption is made permanent and increased to $15 million for individuals and $30 million for married couples starting in 2026.
-- Full expensing for research and development for farmers or businesses using innovative practices in their operations.
-- A new 100% depreciation allowance for nonresidential property, which will include manufacturing facilities built before 2031. That provision includes language implying the bonus depreciation can be applied for buildings used for agricultural and chemical production.
-- Any capital gains resulting from the sale of farmland to qualified farmers can be paid in four annual installments rather than all at once. Such farmland must have been in agricultural production for the past 10 years to qualify and remain in agriculture for another 10 years after the sale occurs.
-- Rural bankers also will receive a 25% deduction on interest income from qualified rural real-estate loans.
-- For biofuels, the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit is extended and modified. The law extended the 45Z tax credit to the end of 2029 but also cuts the top rate for 45Z from $1.75 a gallon to $1 a gallon. Transportation fuels developed from animal manure would also qualify for the credit.
-- The Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Credit doubled from 10 cents a gallon to 20 cents a gallon.
-- A $10,000 deduction on auto loan interest for couples earning $200,000 or less.
-- The state and local tax (SALT) deduction increases to $40,000 for taxpayers earning under $500,000.
SNAP-MEDICAID CUTS
The OBBBA also cut $185 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) over 10 years, a program that spends about $123 billion a year for roughly 42 million people on the program. The law increased SNAP work requirements while pressing on states to reduce SNAP error rates. The law, though, also temporarily shields states with the highest payment error rates before having to pay a share of SNAP costs. Still, most states will now have to pay a percentage of SNAP benefits starting in 2028, which could cause further cuts to benefits.
Groups such as leaders of food banks said the SNAP cuts would put more pressure on charitable services when demand for food aid is already high.
"In effect, we cut spending on SNAP to double subsidies to farmers," said Jonathan Coppess, associate professor of farm policy at the University of Illinois, during an event in Iowa earlier this month.
Coppess added, "This is the end of the farm bill as we've known it. For 50 years, the core deal has been food assistance paired with farm programs. That deal is now broken. OB3 is the fatal, final blow."
The legislation also didn't extend the premium tax credits for the Affordable Care Act. That led to gridlock in Congress that eventually caused the longest government shutdown in history. Still, Congress could not come to terms on a health-care bill to extend the tax credits, which affect health insurance costs for roughly 24 million Americans.
SNAP cuts also became part of the shutdown fight as the Trump administration effectively used SNAP benefits as leverage, which put pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown. SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans weren't paid throughout most of November as a result.
OBBBA REBRAND
The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" became unpopular enough among some voters during the summer that the White House and Republicans in Congress in September sought to rebrand the legislation as the "Working Families Tax Cut Act."
Tax refunds for average Americans will be larger because of the OBBBA, according to an analysis from the Tax Foundation earlier this month. The law lowers individual income taxes by an estimated $144 billion.
The act does allow certain service workers to deduct up to $25,500 in tips and workers can deduct up to $12,500 in overtime pay as well. Seniors over age 65 also get a $6,000 bump in their standard deduction.
The SALT cap increase, the deduction for seniors, the overtime deduction and an increase in the standard deduction are the biggest impacts most average families will see. Average tax refunds will increase about $800, the Tax Foundation stated.
Still, the legislation is weighted more heavily toward top earners and corporations compared to middle-income families while lower-income people see limited tax benefits as they face potential SNAP and Medicaid cuts.
Weather is always a hot-button story to the growing season and always comes with areas that end up in favorable condition, and others that deal with challenges. This one was no exception but tended to be a more favorable weather situation than most years for much of the United States.
That was not the forecast at the beginning of the year, however. A year ago, DTN and other outlets were concerned about hot and dry conditions for the central U.S. in the middle of 2025.
Because of a waning La Nina and a forecast of near- to below-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean for the summer, the fear was that a stagnant weather pattern would develop and promote long stretches of hot and dry conditions that could wither crops. Many outlets were trying to make comparisons to the dreaded 2012 season. And while the season started with widespread drought, particularly in the Plains and Midwest in early spring, that did not end up being the case for most of the season.
ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN ALLEVIATES DROUGHT CONCERNS
La Nina peaked in January and early February, then quickly moved into a neutral state in March. The ocean temperatures were a little warmer than many forecasts, which meant that other influences on our weather could take over, and they fought it out for months. The result was an active weather pattern, but not for a specific area for too long of a time. Many areas of the country benefited in early spring, though some areas saw flooding as well.
A particularly busy week of weather in the first five days of April produced widespread severe storms and double-digit rainfall over large areas of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Flooding was a major issue and led to late planting and long-term delays as wet weather continued for the rest of spring.
In the Plains, the active pattern aided drought reduction and good soil moisture for winter wheat from Kansas southward, particularly in April and May. The same goes with northern areas, as the Dakotas saw reduction in drought as well. Nebraska had to wait until late May, but once the spigot turned on, it was rather frequent for most of the summer, leading to very little drought come harvest time.
The Midwest benefited from this pattern, too. Very few areas were missed by system after system crossing the region. Drought was largely eliminated by the start of summer, except for some smaller patches of moderate drought along the Iowa-Missouri border through northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. SUMMER STARTS ACTIVE, GOES STAGNANT AS LA NINA REDEVELOPS
The active spring weather pattern continued through June and into the first half of July. Predictions for corn and soybean production were record high by the middle of the season, and the early concerns about poor weather essentially vanished. Only very small areas of drought existed on the drought monitor east of the Rocky Mountains at the end of July.
Though some significant severe weather did occur, including a couple of major widespread wind and tornado events in May, and a derecho across North Dakota into northwest Minnesota on June 20, the weather was overall favorable for most areas of the country.
Because of cooling waters in the Pacific Ocean, the weather pattern became much more stagnant in the second half of summer. This continued to favor much of the Plains and Upper Midwest, with frequent rainfall that bolstered expectations for high yields. But the eastern half of the Corn Belt through the Delta and parts of the Southeast turned much drier. Drought grew rapidly from Arkansas up through Ohio, resulting in a flash drought as areas went from not having any designations on the U.S. Drought Monitor in early August to D3, or extreme drought, by mid-September. The water levels on the Mississippi River quickly took a tumble and have been low ever since, resulting in headaches for transportation up and down the river systems.
The active weather pattern caused many in the Plains to have a near-normal summer season in terms of temperature. Extreme heat was limited to shorter stretches this year. Meanwhile, the lack of rainfall and increased temperatures led to heat stress for much of the Delta and Eastern Corn Belt, especially toward the end of the season.
Dryness continued for the late-fill period in early fall, but ebbed and flowed more across the county, particularly in the Eastern Corn Belt. Several systems hit the Ohio and Tennessee valleys in late September and October but were too late to benefit crop production and could not provide a big enough boost to the water levels on the Mississippi River, at least not for an extended period. Drier conditions started to work into the Central and Southern Plains, and drought began to increase again, but did so in patchy fashion. La Nina finally became official, according to NOAA, in October.
WEATHER INCREASED DISEASE PRESSURE
Southern rust became a big topic during the late-summer and early fall season. Producers were noting dust clouds as their combines started to roll in Iowa and Illinois. This was due mainly to the good weather in the spring across the South. Heavy rain and wet conditions, along with mild to warm weather, allowed the rust to grow across the Delta and Southeast. As the summer wore on, frequent systems continued to bring moisture northward, carrying rust spores and other diseases northward as well. Frequent rainfall and high humidity in the middle of the country helped rust to continue to develop throughout the end of summer.
OTHER EVENTS AND WEATHER NOTES
The weather during the growing season was largely favorable for a lot of the country but wasn't perfect. Drought was a major issue for producers in Montana for most of the year. The Pacific Northwest dried out, and drought was introduced in May and continued to grow throughout the year. Heavy rain and flooding wiped out drought in California and significantly reduced it in the Four Corners area but also led to the tragic flooding event in the Hill Country of Texas in early July. Wildfires were frequent and widespread for the first half of the year in the West and Canadian Prairies, leading to smoke hazards for much of the spring and summer.
On a more favorable note, the hurricane season was rather quiet. Only one tropical storm landed in the U.S., moving across Florida and then the Carolinas into Virginia in early July. For the first year since 2015, no hurricanes landed on the U.S. mainland, though there were three Category 5 storms, including Hurricane Melissa that posted maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and devastated Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
And lastly, winter started off quite severely. During Thanksgiving week, a plunge of arctic air spread across the country and was repeatedly reinforced through the first half of December. Snow was frequent and led to widespread coverage over most of the Northern Plains, Midwest and Northeast by Dec. 14. That has quickly flipped the page to end the month, however, and extreme warm weather is forecast to break records during the week of Christmas, eliminating a lot of that snow. The front-loaded winter season is likely to return in January as extremely cold air lurks in Western Canada and should return at some point in the month.
REDFIELD, Iowa (DTN) -- Cattle producers have experienced highs and lows in 2025, with the highs continuing to be the market prices because of the historical low in the cattle inventory.
The cattle herd is the smallest it has been in more than 70 years, which has helped boost prices. This has also led to a slower rebuild of the herd. Many producers have already culled cows that have problems, but now are reluctant to keep many heifers back or purchase more, because of prices.
Oklahoma State University Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel said the last time prices were near this high was in 2014 when herds were liquidated mostly because of drought, but the herd was rebuilt quickly after that. He said this time it would take until 2029 to see an impact on herd number if producers started to rebuild now; but the markets still seem to be preventing that.
DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart agreed. "There's only one way to properly describe the cattle market in 2025 -- and that's by saying it was truly a record-breaking year in every sense of the word. Record-breaking prices across the entire marketplace -- futures contracts, feeder cattle prices, fed cattle prices, bred cow prices and cull cow prices, too." Profits have been record-breaking in some cases -- but so have volatility and risk.
CURRENT BENEFITS AND RISKS
Cow-calf producers have reaped the benefits of a historically low domestic calf crop, she said. These prices have also been driven higher by the closure of the U.S.-Mexico border as the fear of New World screwworm lingers.
"These producers also faced the challenge of longing to rebuild their cow herds as bred cow prices have easily averaged over $4,000 per head late this fall and early winter, and as the sheer cost to operate remains a heavy burden in and of itself," she added.
For those who elected to take this opportunity in the marketplace to exit the business on what will be remembered as one of the wildest rallies ever seen in the cattle sector, the decision was somewhat easy, as never before has the market extended prices to levels seen in 2025. Stewart said when leverage begins to shift from the grass root level to the feeding sector again, it will be anyone's guess on when prices could touch these thresholds again.
"But on the other hand, for those who are playing the long-term game, this year presented plenty of opportunities to sell -- and sell like never before. But buying cattle, of any kind or class, was the real challenge of the year," she added.
MOVING FORWARD
Peel said prices should remain strong at least into 2027. Price pressure could be seen by the end of the decade if herd growth happens. The great thing about the whole supply side is the demand has continued to be strong.
Meat supplies have stayed somewhat constant because of an increase in carcass weights. The average carcass weight for 2024 was 927 pounds and increased to 944 pounds for 2025. The increase is expected to continue with tight supplies to provide more meat for consumers. The trend of breeding dairy cows to beef bulls has helped provide more beef for consumers as well.
President Donald Trump became involved in the cattle markets through an investigation of beef packers and increasing beef imports. This came with reaction from both cattle producers and the markets. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall criticized Trump's plan for imports, wanting to let the cattle markets work like they should and not risk the livelihoods of America's cattlemen and women.
The latest Cattle on Feed report released Dec. 19, showed Dec. 1 cattle and calves on feed for slaughter are down 2% from the same time in 2024. Live cattle futures closed higher, as did March feeder cattle following that report. It will be interesting to see what the market does as it moves into 2026.
Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second. Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated. Upper Snake River s...
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