Better Outlook for the Future Pushes Farmer Sentiment Higher

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers’ more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128. This month’s survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November. The November barometer survey took place from November 10-14, 2025.

Producers in November were more optimistic about their farms’ financial performance than a month earlier, as the Farm Financial Performance Index climbed 14 points to a reading of 92. In particular, the percentage of producers who expect better financial performance this year rose to 24% from just 16% in October. A sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November was a key reason behind the expectation for better financial performance. For example, Eastern Corn Belt prices for fall delivery of corn and soybeans rose 10% and 15%, respectively, from mid-October to mid-November. The stronger financial outlook in the crop sector outweighed a weaker outlook provided by livestock producers, who were feeling the brunt of a decline in cattle prices that took place during the same time frame. Despite the stronger financial outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 6 points to a reading of 56, with just 16% of respondents saying now is a good time to make large investments in their farm operations.

Producers became more optimistic about future agricultural trade prospects in November. Responding to a question included in every barometer survey since January 2019, just 7% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken in the next 5 years, down from 14% who felt that way in October and down from 30% who expected exports to weaken back in March. In a related question, 47% of corn producers responding to the November survey said they expect soybean exports to rise over the next 5 years, while just 8% said they expect soybean exports to decline. The improved trade outlook appeared to contribute to this month’s sentiment improvement.

A majority of producers in November reported that they still expect to receive a supplementary support payment from USDA, similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), but they were less confident of receiving the payment than in September. This month, just 16% of respondents thought an MFP payment was “very likely”, down from 62% who felt that way in September. Still, when the “likely” and “very likely” response categories are combined, just over three-fourths (76%) of farmers in November said they expect an MFP payment, compared to 83% who felt that way in September. When asked how an MFP payment would be used on their farms, 58% of respondents said they would use it to “pay down debt”, up from 52% who said an MFP payment would be used to reduce debt when surveyed in October.

For the second month in a row, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose, reaching 116 in November, 3 points above a month earlier and 10 points higher than in September. Farmers’ long-run perspective on farmland values also rose this month as the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed 4 points to a reading of 165, a new record high for the index. This month’s survey also asked corn producers about their expectations for cash rental rates for farmland in 2026. Nearly three-fourths of respondents (74%) said they expect rates in 2026 to be about the same as this year, which was very consistent with responses received in both July and August. The relatively strong cash rent outlook provides some support for farmland values.

The November survey again asked corn producers what adjustments to their production practices they anticipate making in 2026 in response to expected weak operating margins. Among producers who say they plan to make changes, the top two production practices they will consider changing are shifting to lower-cost seed traits or varieties and reducing applications of phosphorus. Next in line for possible changes are reducing corn seeding rates and nitrogen application rates. Still, a large minority of farmers (40%) said they don’t plan to make any changes to their corn production practices in 2026.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers’ attitudes regarding 2025’s policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction”, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that “things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction”, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose “wrong track” rose from 28% to 33%.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (12/2)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (12/1)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 35 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2619155 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (11/27)

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw improvement in drought-related conditions across areas of the West, Lower Midwest, Northeast, and the South. On the map, widespread improvements were made in drought-affected areas across Arizona as well as in other areas of the Desert Southwest including western New Mexico and southern Utah. In California, storms during the past few weeks, in addition to an overall wetter pattern in recent months, have continued to help improve conditions leading to removal of areas of drought in Southern California. Since October 1st, numerous locations in California, southern Nevada, and Arizona have received record to near-record precipitation accumulations including Santa Barbara, California (+8.2-inch departure from normal), Ontario, California (+4.11 inches), Las Vegas, Nevada (+2.08 inches), and Flagstaff, Arizona (+5.71 inches). In the Pacific Northwest, drier-than-normal conditions have prevailed (past 30-days) across areas of the region including central and eastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and southwestern Montana. Moreover, snowpack conditions across the Pacific Northwest continued to lag behind normal levels. In the Lower Midwest (Missouri) and areas of the South (Texas), widespread improvements were made in response to rainfall events during the past week. In areas of the Upper Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin), exceptionally dry conditions have prevailed during the past 60-day period with numerous locations observing record to near-record dryness. In the Southeast, warm and dry conditions continued leading to expansion and intensification of drought conditions in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Georgia. In the Northeast, recent rains led to reduction of areas of drought in West Virginia, while isolated areas of New England saw minor improvements.

In terms of reservoir storage in areas of the West, California’s reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (November 24), with the state’s two largest reservoirs (Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville) at 110% and 100% of their averages, respectively. In the Southwest, Lake Powell is currently 29% full and Lake Mead is 32% full, with the total Colorado River system contents at 37% of capacity on November 23 (compared to 42% of capacity at the same time last year), according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. In Arizona, the Salt River Project is reporting that the Salt River system reservoirs are 54% full, the Verde River system is 68% full, and the total reservoir system is 56% full (compared to 73% full a year ago). In New Mexico, the state’s largest reservoir, Elephant Butte, along the Rio Grande River is currently 5% full (12% of average). In the Pacific Northwest, Washington’s Franklin D. Roosevelt Lake is 94% full (105% of average for the date), Idaho’s American Falls Reservoir on the Snake River is 25% full (64% of average), and Hungry Horse Reservoir in northwestern Montana is 88% full (107% of average).

Northeast

On this week’s map, improvements were made in areas of Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York, West Virginia, and Maryland. In New England, improvements were made in response to beneficial precipitation during the past 30-to-60 day period as well as improving groundwater conditions. In the southern tier of the region, rainfall during the past 7-day period (ranging from 1 to 2+ inches) boosted streamflow activity and soil moisture levels leading to a reduction of areas of drought in the eastern portion of West Virginia. In New Jersey, drought intensified in isolated areas (southern and northwestern) where areas of Severe Drought (D2) expanded on the map. For the past 90-day period, precipitation deficits across New Jersey ranged from 2 to 6+ inches. Moreover, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is reporting below-normal streamflow levels (< 10th percentile) at numerous gages across the state. In terms of snowpack conditions, the National Weather Service National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NWS NOHRSC) is reporting that the Northeast region is currently 42.5% covered by snow (area) with an average depth of 1.4 inches and a maximum depth of 25.5 inches. For the week, average temperatures were below normal across most of the region with the greatest departures (4 to 8 degrees F) observed in areas of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.

Southeast

During the past week, conditions were generally dry with some isolated areas, including eastern North Carolina, and northern portions of Alabama and Georgia, receiving light rainfall accumulations (< 1 inch). On the map, drought-related conditions degraded in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. In the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama, a combination of factors including short-term precipitation deficits (past 30 to 120 days), and exceptionally low streamflows and soil moisture levels led to expansion and intensification of drought. In South Florida, areas of Moderate Drought (D1) expanded in response to precipitation shortfalls during the past 30-to-60-day period. In terms of average temperatures for the week, the greatest anomalies (10 to 15+ degrees F) were observed in northern portions of Alabama and Georgia, and western North Carolina.

South

Across much of the region, generally dry conditions prevailed this week, especially in the far southern and western portions of the region, with little or no precipitation observed. In contrast, light to moderate rainfall (2 to 4+ inches) was observed along a swath extending from central Texas to southwestern Arkansas. The beneficial rainfall led to one-category improvements in areas of Moderate (D1) to Extreme Drought (D3) with most of the improvements focused on areas of central and northeastern Texas. Elsewhere, minor improvements were made on the map in southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi. In Louisiana, short-term precipitation deficits (past 90-day period) and declining soil moisture levels led to expansion of areas of Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2). For the week, average temperatures were well above normal across the region with anomalies ranging from 4 to 16 degrees F above normal. Looking at reservoir conditions in Texas, Water for Texas (November 25) was reporting statewide reservoirs at 74% full, with many reservoirs in the eastern part of the state in very good condition, while numerous reservoirs in the western portion of the state were experiencing continued below-normal levels.

Midwest

On this week’s map, improvements were made in the southern extent of the region in Missouri in response to widespread rainfall (1 to 2.5 inches) across the state. Elsewhere in the region, some minor improvements were made in southern Illinois, central Indiana, and northwestern Michigan. For the week, average temperatures were above normal across the western and southern extent of the region, with anomalies ranging from 5 to 15 degrees F above normal and the greatest departures observed in western Minnesota and southern Missouri. Temperatures were cooler in the eastern half of the region ranging from 5 degrees F above normal to 5 degrees below normal (central and northern Michigan, eastern Ohio). Using the Southeast Regional Climate Center’s Climate Perspectives tool, the past two months have been very dry across much of the region, with record to near-record dryness observed in the following locations: Duluth, Minnesota (-4.52 inch departure); Madison, Wisconsin (-3.57 inches); Green Bay, Wisconsin (-2.58 inches); Detroit, Michigan (-3.75 inches); and St. Louis, Missouri (-4.3 inches).

High Plains

On this week’s map, only minor changes were made in the region, including changes in eastern Kansas, Nebraska, and southwestern South Dakota. For the week, precipitation across the region was generally light and primarily restricted to eastern and central portions of Kansas as well as in eastern and central South Dakota. In terms of average temperatures, warmer-than-normal temperatures (5 to 15+ degrees F above normal) were observed across the region with the greatest anomalies observed in the Dakotas. According to NWS NOHRSC, the current regional snowpack spatial extent is limited to areas of central and northern North Dakota.

West

Out West, recent storms have delivered much-needed precipitation to drought-affected areas of California, central and southern Nevada, southern Utah, Arizona, southern Colorado, and western New Mexico. On this week’s map, widespread improvements were made in Arizona, across the southern-third of California, and in isolated areas of Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. Moreover, the recent storm activity in the southern extent of the region has boosted snowpack conditions in the southern and central Sierra Nevada, Spring Mountains (southern Nevada), San Francisco Peaks (northern Arizona), Mogollon Rim (central Arizona), ranges of southwestern Utah, and Nacimiento Mountains (northern New Mexico). Elsewhere, snowpack conditions were poor across most of the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest. In other parts of the region, some minor degradations were made on the map in northern Colorado and north-central Montana.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, some minor expansion of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) were made in the central portion of the island in response to short-term dryness (past 30-day period), low streamflows, reduced soil moisture, and drying vegetation.

This week, short-term abnormal dryness continued on St. Croix and developed on St. Thomas and St. John. Rainfall observations on St Croix recorded in the CoCoRaHs network varied from 0.38 to 0.93. A well-level monitoring site from the U.S. Geological Survey showed depth to water continuing to slowly increase. Depth to water also increased at well-level monitoring sites on St. Thomas and St. John, while short-term rainfall deficits increased on both islands. Rainfall observations on St. Thomas ranged from 0.25 to 0.31 inches. On St. John, CoCoRaHs observations ranged from 0.21 to 0.25 inches, while the observer at Windswept Beach reported 0.45 inches of rain.

Pacific

On this week’s map, no changes were made in the Alaska.

On this week’s map, no changes were made in the Hawaiian Islands.

American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. At Toa Ridge, 3.31 inches of rain fell, while 4.64 inches fell at Siufaga Ridge. At least 4.08 inches of rain fell in Pago Pago this week, continuing a series of wet weeks there.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, though only 1.15 inches of rain had fallen through five days this week. Given each of the prior three weeks saw over 2 inches of rain, conditions should still be close to normal in Palau.

Short-term abnormal dryness developed on Saipan, where 0.23 inches of rain were reported this week. This marked the third consecutive week with less than 1 inch of rain, which was preceded by below-normal (though still sufficient) rainfall in October. On Tinian, 0.53 inches of rain were reported, marking the second week in a row with less than an inch of rainfall, though abnormal dryness has not quite developed there. On Guam, 0.88 inches of rain this week marked the second consecutive week with just under 1 inch of rain, though abnormal dryness has not yet developed. On Rota, 1.09 inches of rain fell, and conditions remained normal there.

On Yap, 4.27 inches of rain fell, and conditions remained normal there. No Drought Monitor depiction was made for Ulithi, as data there are missing. On Woleai, conditions remained free of drought or abnormal dryness with 3.09 inches of rain this week. No Drought Monitor depiction was made for Fananu due to missing data there. Chuuk remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, as at least 7.06 inches of rain fell there this week. Lukunor remained free of drought or abnormal dryness after receiving at least 4.12 inches of rain this week. Nukuoro remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week after 2.66 inches of rain fell there. Conditions on Kapingamarangi improved from severe to moderate short-term drought after 4.86 inches of rain fell there this week, marking the third week out of the last four with at least 2” of rain. Pohnpei remained free of drought or abnormal dryness and received 3.72 inches of rain this week. No Drought Monitor depiction was made on Pingelap this week due to recent missing data. Kosrae remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, where 4.65 inches of rain continued a wet spell dating back several months.

No Drought Monitor depiction was made for Kwajalein due to recent missing data. Ailinglaplap remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, though 1.83 inches of rain this week marked the second week in a row with less than 2 inches. Jaluit remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week and received 2.29 inches of rain. After 1.6 inches of rain last week, the monthly rainfall total on Utirik was at 2.26 inches, and short-term abnormal dryness developed. Wotje remained free of drought or abnormal dryness with 0.69 inches of rain last week, bringing the monthly total there to 5.75 inches. Mili remained free of drought or abnormal dryness with 0.93 inches of rain last week, bringing the monthly rainfall total to over 10 inches. Majuro remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week and received 3.96 inches of rain.

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for moderate precipitation accumulations ranging from 2 to 4+ inches (liquid) across areas of the South and areas of the Southeast. Likewise, a significant winter storm is expected to impact the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. In the West, dry conditions are expected to prevail across California and the Great Basin, while some lighter accumulations are expected across the Intermountain West. In the Pacific Northwest, moderate accumulations are expected across western Washington and some lesser accumulations across areas of the Northern Rockies of Idaho and northwestern Montana. The Climate Prediction Center 6-to-10-day Outlook calls for a moderate-to-high probability of below-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the West, Plains, South, Midwest, and Northeast. Above-normal temperatures are expected across the Southeast and along the Pacific Coast from Northern California to Washington. In terms of precipitation, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across most of the conterminous U.S. except for northern California and western Oregon where below-normal precipitation is favored.