This Week's Drought Summary (11/5)

The very wet fall continued across the southwest quarter of the contiguous U.S. to end October. Based on the additional heavy precipitation (more than 1 inch) from October 27-November 2 and a positive shift in the long-term metrics since September, a broad 1-category improvement was made to the Southwest and Great Basin. Although short-term drought has ended, lingering long-term drought remains designated for parts of these areas. The remnants of Hurricane Vance from the East Pacific brought drought-improving precipitation to western and central Texas. At the start of November, heavy precipitation prompted improvements to the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Drought coverage continued its late summer and fall decline across Florida. Drought expanded and intensified for parts of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Alaska and Hawaii remain drought-free, while drought continues to improve across Puerto Rico.

Northeast

Based on the 30 to 60-day SPI, NASA SPoRT soil moisture, and USGS 28-day streamflow, a 1-category degradation was made across parts of northwestern New Jersey, northern Pennsylvania, the Finger Lakes of New York, and New England. Due in part to the lack of recovery from the 2025 drought, 28-day streamflows are in the lowest 5th percentile which supports the addition of D3 in the North Woods of Maine. Dx coverage remained nearly steady for Delaware, Maryland, southern New Jersey, and West Virginia.

Southeast

Heavy to excessive rainfall (2-6 inches, or more) drenched much of the central to southern Florida Peninsula with the heaviest totals (more than 10 inches) along the Atlantic coast. Due to the recent heavy rainfall and using NDMC’s short and long-term blends, a 1 to 2-category improvement was necessary for the Florida Peninsula. However, D1 remains warranted near Bradenton and Fort Myers where 28-day streamflows are below the 20th percentile. In addition, lower weekly rainfall amounts led to continuing D2 for parts of the Everglades. Please note that short-term drought has ended for Florida with only lingering long-term drought. Increasing 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits and worsening soil moisture resulted in 1-category degradations in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. Heavy precipitation (more than 2 inches) led to a 1-category across the northwest corner of Alabama.

South

The remnants of Hurricane Vance in the East Pacific brought heavy rainfall to western and central Texas. A 1-category improvement was made roughly to areas that received more than 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall. Also, SPIs at various time scales were considered. The unusually wet fall continued in New Mexico where a broad 1-category improvement was necessary. Additional improvements may be needed in subsequent weeks to be more consistent with long-term metrics. Please note that short-term drought has ended for New Mexico. Near or more than one inch of precipitation supported improvements across the western third of Oklahoma. Since this precipitation occurred on November 2nd, additional improvements may be made to a greater coverage of Oklahoma next week once a full assessment of the latest metrics is completed. The D2, D3, and D4 coverage across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee is generally consistent with SPEIs at various time scales and soil moisture indicators. Impact reports from Mississippi include poor to very poor pastures along with dry farm ponds. The lack of precipitation the past two months (60-day deficits of more than 4 inches) coupled with above-normal temperatures (+6 to 10 degrees F since early September) has led to rapid intensifying drought across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heavy precipitation (1.5 to 2 inches, locally more) resulted in a 1-category improvement to southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi, while a 1-category degradation was warranted for northeastern Tennessee.

Midwest

Widespread D2 to D3 continues across southern Missouri and 60 to 90-day SPEI along with soil moisture supported an expansion of those drought categories in the southern third of the state. Increasing 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits, declining soil moisture, and the NDMC short-term blend resulted in a 1-category degradation across Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Conversely, unusually heavy precipitation (widespread amounts of 1.5 inches+) for this time of year led to a broad 1-category improvement for much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Please note that short-term drought has ended for nearly all of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

High Plains

Widespread precipitation (0.5 to 2 inches, locally more) resulted in 1-category improvements to the western third Colorado along with parts of the Northern to Central Great Plains. Recent precipitation and the “convergence of evidence” supported discontinuing the D3 in most of the Nebraska Panhandle.

West

A low pressure system at an unusually low latitude for this time of year resulted in anomalously wet conditions across southern California and the Desert Southwest over Halloween weekend. During the past 60 days, precipitation has averaged well above normal (200 to 400%, or more) across southern California, southern Nevada, and most of Arizona and Utah. This fall wetness is related in part to the El Nino driven active tropical cyclone season in the East Pacific. Precipitation amounts of more than one inch prompted a 1-category improvement from Arizona north to Nevada, Utah and southeastern Idaho. Please note that short-term drought has ended for the Southwest and Great Basin. Despite multiple short-term metrics on the wet side, long-term drought of varying intensity persists across parts of these areas. Precipitation (0.5 to 1 inch, locally more) this past week led to small improvements for parts of Montana. Drought coverage and intensity remained steady for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.

Caribbean

Based on recent heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches), a 1-category improvement was made to southern Puerto Rico. However, no changes were warranted for the northeastern interior.

The Drought Monitor depiction this week in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained the same, with short- and long-term exceptional drought on St. Thomas and St. John, and short- and long-term extreme drought on St. Croix. The ongoing dry weather was alleviated slightly on the western reaches of St. Thomas, where rain amounts of 1.49 and 1.75 inches were reported, with lesser amounts farther east (for example, 0.78 inches of rain in the central part of the island). Depth-to-water at Grade School 3 Well rebounded a bit, but given ongoing warmer-than-normal temperatures, further rainfall in coming weeks will be needed for improvements. On and near St. John, rain totals this week ranged from 0.17 to 0.61 inches according to CoCoRaHS observations. At Windswept Beach, May-October rain totaled 10.22 inches, a record low for the site (and more than 3 inches less than the previous record low of 13.93 inches in 1994). The average rainfall for Windswept Beach (from 1984-2025) is 27.8 inches, showing just how dry the last several months have been there. On St. Croix, according to CoCoRaHS observations, rain amounts were generally light, spanning a range of 0.1-0.31 inches.

Pacific

Alaska became drought-free as of October 27th and no changes were made this past week.

Hawaii remains drought-free with periods of heavy to excessive precipitation during the past few months. D0 is designated across the leeward side of the Big Island.

At Pago Pago Airport this week, 0.44 inches of rain were reported, while totals at Siufaga and Toa ridges were 0.4 and 0.32 inches, respectively. Given continued dry recent weather going back to late September, and the second-driest October on record at Pago Pago, short-term moderate drought was introduced this week.

At Koror, 2.58 inches of rain fell this week, snapping a string of three consecutive drier weeks. However, given record dryness in August and unusually dry weather in September and October, short-term moderate drought remained this week in Palau.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Only 0.29 inches of rain fell on Guam, marking two weeks in a row with below 1 inch of rain. Conditions preceding the last two weeks were wet, though the recent dryness will be monitored going forward. On Rota, just 0.13 inches of rain fell, though this followed sufficiently wet conditions for the last 3 months. On Tinian, 1.4 inches of rain were reported this week. On Saipan, 2.41 inches of rain were reported.

Abnormal dryness developed in Yap this week, where 0.18 inches of rain fell, marking three weeks in a row with less than 2 inches of rain. Abnormal dryness also developed on Ulithi, where the week was completely dry. Woleai also fell into abnormal dryness after only 0.2 inches of rain fell this week. Abnormal dryness developed in Chuuk, where only 0.06 inches of rain were reported (though with three days missing from the analysis). Abnormal dryness continued on Lukunor, where 1.23 inches of rain were reported (with two days missing). Abnormal dryness developed on Nukuoro, where 0.66 inches of rain fell this week. Four of the last six weeks on Nukuoro have seen less than an inch of rain. Short-term moderate drought continued in Kapingamarangi, where 1.19 inches of rain fell on Monday, while the rest of the week was dry. Normal conditions continued in Pohnpei, where 1.73 inches of rain fell this week. Abnormal dryness developed on Kosrae, where 0.81 inches of rain fell this week (with one day missing). No Drought Monitor depictions were made for Fananu or Pingelap, as data were not available for either location.

Abnormal dryness developed in Kwajalein this week, where only 0.13 inches of rain fell this week. Abnormal dryness also developed in Ailinglaplap, where 0.35 inches of rain fell this week (with one day missing), marking three weeks in a row with less than 1 inch of rain. Abnormal dryness continued this week in Jaluit, where no rain was reported (though with one day missing). Normal conditions were analysed on Utirik and Wotje, where 2.92 and 0.5 inches of rain were reported at each, respectively, with one day missing at both sites. Normal conditions continued at Majuro, though no rain was reported this week, marking the second consecutive week with less than 1 inch of rain. Abnormal dryness was analysed on Mili, where 1.01 inches of rain were reported (with one day missing).

Looking Ahead

A much drier multi-day period (Nov 5-9) and more typical for fall is forecast for a majority of the lower 48 states. A cold front will trigger a period of wet weather along the East Coast with the heaviest amounts (more than one inch) from the coastal Mid-Atlantic north to southeastern New England. Along the tail end of this front, heavy precipitation may occur across the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The only other area forecast to receive significant precipitation is the coastal Pacific Northwest.

By mid-November, there is an increasing chance that an atmospheric river affects the West Coast. The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid Nov 10-14) depicts more than a 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation for much of California and the Pacific Northwest. The largest probabilities (> 70%) are forecast across northern California and southwestern Oregon. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across the Great Basin, Southwest, Rio Grande Valley, and Florida. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across the Northern to Central Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The enhanced Pacific flow strongly favors above-normal temperatures for nearly all of the contiguous U.S. which is typical for a strong El Nino during the fall.

Optimism Grows in October as Current Conditions Improve

Farmer sentiment improved in October, with the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Indexincreasing from 123 points in September to 126 points (see Figure 1). The Index of Current Conditions increased by 16 points, while the Index of Future Expectations dropped by 2 points (see Figure 2). High input costs remain the biggest concern. Despite this concern, the Farm Financial Performance Index increased from 90 to 94, and the Farm Capital Investment Index increased from 39 to 55 in October. The increase in the Index of Current Conditions coincided with the rollout of the USDA Agriculture Risk Coverage-County (ARC-CO) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments in October. Continued concerns about the long-run policy environment, which will be further discussed below, are likely impacting producer expectations. The October barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the country from October 12 to 16, 2026.

Although the Farm Financial Performance Index rose from 90 to 94 in October, it remains below its 2026 peak of 103 reached in August. The Farm Capital Investment Index increased from 39 to 55, reaching its highest level since last December. However, it is important to note that only 20% of respondents in October indicated that it was a good time to make investments in machinery and buildings.

This month’s survey included questions about farm resilience or the ability to withstand market shocks. Approximately 62% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the following statement: “We have a strong balance sheet” (see Figure 4). In January of this year, 76% of respondents indicated that they have a strong balance sheet. In a related question, 60% of respondents this month either agreed or strongly agreed that their farm had a solid working capital position.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined by 1 point to 125 in October, while the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell by 6 points to 162. Alternative investments, interest rates, and inflation were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.

Two questions in this month’s survey gauged sentiment regarding the long-run policy environment. The first question asked respondents whether they expected the increased use of tariffs in the U.S. to strengthen or weaken the U.S. agricultural economy in the long run. Only 35% of respondents thought the increased use of tariffs would strengthen the long-run agricultural economy. When this question was asked in previous surveys, between 49% and 70% of respondents indicated that tariffs would strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy in the long run.

The second question that was used to measure sentiment regarding the long-run policy environment asked respondents whether they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track.” The share of respondents who thought the U.S. was heading in the right direction averaged more than 60% from July 2025 to June 2026 but fell below 50% in both the September and October AEB surveys.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment increased from 123 to 126 in October due to an improvement in sentiment regarding current conditions. The Index of Current Conditions increased by 16 points, while the Index of Future Expectations dropped by 2 points. Respondents were more optimistic about their financial prospects and the investment environment. Despite the improvement in sentiment, the share of producers reporting a strong balance sheet declined from 76% in January to approximately 62% in October, suggesting that financial pressures remain.  

Long-run policy concerns are mitigating optimism regarding long-term sentiment. Only 35% of respondents thought the increased use of tariffs by the U.S. would strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. Likewise, less than 50% of respondents indicated that the U.S. is headed in the “right direction.” Despite declines in both farmland value expectations indices, respondents remained optimistic about farmland values over the next five years.

November Agriculture News & Notes

Democrats will enter the 120th Congress with control of both chambers after voters handed them victories in several deep-red seats across the country — and an opportunity to squeeze President Donald Trump for the remainder of his term. Everything now pivots to 2028.   Expect fresh oversight of not only the Trump administration but also the businesses and special interests that aligned with the White House and Republicans over the past two years. But Democrats are also under pressure to deliver the affordability platform they ran on. They have no shortage of policies they want to pursue, from food and artificial intelligence to health care and taxes.   Here are the major policy issues POLITICO will be watching in 2027. Agriculture — In Congress: The House and Senate agriculture committees are set for new leadership following the midterm elections. Irrespective of which party controls Congress, lawmakers are expected to try to push through a farm bill for the first time since 2018. The legislation passed out of the Senate Agriculture Committee in September after the House passed its own version earlier this year. It could get a Senate floor vote before the end of the current Congress.   Lawmakers remain deadlocked over changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program stemming from Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Democrats have refused to budge on a compromise offered by Senate Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) offered to delay new costs on states. That impasse could make it impossible to overcome the 60-vote threshold needed in the Senate.   — Regulations: The Trump administration has said repeatedly that it is pushing to release a proposed regulation defining ultraprocessed food, which would allow officials to reshape how Americans eat. The rule has sparked aggressive pushback from the food industry, and a last-minute push to finalize it before the midterms failed.   USDA also reportedly delayed the public release of a regulation intended to align the school meals program with the latest iteration of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, despite promises to release the rule this fall.   — Reorganization: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also said USDA is “full-bore ahead” on the department reorganization, despite a court order to stop progress on the plan outside of the Washington area. USDA appealed the district court’s stay, but the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has so far left the temporary injunction in place.   More money incoming: USDA is expected to begin rolling out $8 billion in bailout funds for farmers later this month. Trump promised the taxpayer money as relief for soaring diesel prices during this fall harvest season. — Marcia Brown Trade — Counter Trump’s trade agenda: Democrats know they can’t repeal President Donald Trump’s tariffs as long as he’s in the White House. But their return to power in the new Congress is poised to set up a fierce debate within the party over where it stands on trade policy heading into the 2028 election.   Leading Democrats are already jockeying for influence over how far the party should go in rejecting Trump’s trade agenda. The divide cuts across geography and ideology: Democrats from export-dependent states want to reverse Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, while union allies and Rust Belt politicians favor a more cautious approach.   Democrats know they can’t repeal Trump’s tariffs as long as he’s in the White House. But with control of the House and possibly the Senate in the new Congress, they plan to haul in top administration officials and possibly executives to explain how Trump picked his targets in his trade war — and why he gave others a pass.   While there’s caucus-wide agreement on holding votes to roll back some of the president’s most controversial tariffs, particularly on traditional allies, the filibuster and Trump’s veto power make any effort to scale back the president’s trade authorities virtually impossible without mass GOP defections.   — Focus on tariff carveouts and deals: Democratic lawmakers and aides on the House Ways and Means, House Foreign Affairs and Senate Finance committees are instead preparing a big oversight push on Trump’s trade policies, especially suspected quid pro quos that may have benefited wealthy interests and foreign governments.   According to seven lawmakers, congressional staffers and former trade officials, Democrats plan to demand answers on who in the administration was responsible for selecting targets for tariff relief, foreign investments and foreign deals on critical mineral supplies and semiconductor sales — and the criteria they used. Lawmakers also plan to zoom in on which companies stood to benefit from specific trade and investments deals, and whether they put their finger on the scales. — Daniel Desrochers & Oliver Ward Financial Services — Financial policy in the 120th: Democrats now in control of the House and Senate are expected to push a financial policy agenda that will include another major housing affordability bill and robust oversight of President Trump’s alleged conflicts of interest in the cryptocurrency sector. Rep. Maxine Waters, who is likely to take over as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said she wants to pass a $1 trillion housing bill. The California Democrat has also pledged to continue to push for “real accountability in the crypto industry” and oppose a bailout of corporations impacted by the collapse of an AI bubble.   The Senate Banking Committee under the likely leadership of Sen. Elizabeth Warren is also expected to pursue an aggressive oversight agenda that could drag CEOs from across the private sector to testify before the panel. But Warren is also gearing up to score some legislative wins, such as follow-up legislation to a major bipartisan housing bill that became law in July and measures cracking down on top chipmakers’ ability to export their products to China. Issues like credit card interest rate caps and clamping down on private equity that have united progressives like Warren with GOP populists could also provide fertile ground for her. — Jasper Goodman and Katherine Hapgood Tax — On the agenda: Democrats are now well-positioned to seek tax changes to tackle their biggest priority — making life feel more affordable for their constituents.   And for that push, Democrats taking over the House Ways and Means Committee could lean on some of their old favorites within the tax code, like the low-income housing credit and refundable incentives like the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit.   Democrats turned the child credit into a monthly payment program the last time they had full control in Washington, which they could at least look at again — depending on how ambitious they’re feeling come 2027.   The biggest impediment to Democrats’ tax policy goals over the next two years will be the president’s veto power. In recent years, Republicans have been pushing to reduce immigrant eligibility for refundable credits and have called out a raft of improper payments in programs like the EITC, which could be hurdles to any agreement across partisan lines on those Democratic priorities.   With Trump still in office, Democrats are also likely to spend the next two years sketching out a broader tax platform as they aim to take back the White House in 2028.   Democrats will certainly continue to look into new and existing angles on one of their favorite themes: taxing the wealthy. That will likely include exploring ways to tax the accumulated assets of the rich, no matter how California votes on its one-time, statewide wealth tax. At the same time, Trump’s push to install new carveouts for things like tipped income and overtime pay has scrambled the tax debate.   Some potential 2028 contenders, like Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), have already rolled out proposals that would offer broad tax cuts for people with more modest incomes, prompting debate within the left about whether that would be the best use of increased revenue.   — Don’t forget the oversight: The IRS is certain to face fresh scrutiny from a newly empowered Democratic Congress still outraged by the settlement of Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS, which gave the president, two of his sons and his businesses broad protections against tax audits and other enforcement measures.   Some leading Democrats have also questioned whether the current governing structure of the IRS is legal.   The IRS is currently run by a chief executive: Frank Bisignano, who the Senate confirmed for a different position — commissioner of the Social Security Administration. The IRS has been without a Senate-confirmed commissioner for more than a year. — Bernie Becker Education — Oversight takes center stage: Democratic lawmakers long upset with the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle the Education Department now have a path to pursue robust oversight. They’ve called for intense scrutiny of how the administration has redirected the agency’s programs across other federal departments and downsized the agency through layoffs. Congressional Democrats have long wanted to probe education officials about the decisions made to whittle down the agency and the dwindling number of civil rights cases that have been resolved.   — Early learning gets another push: Democrats also have a path to pursue legislation on early childhood education and college affordability. But moving legislation could still be tough in the Senate given that votes would be needed from members of both parties to overcome the filibuster as well as the president’s veto power.   Democrats are likely to bring up the Child Care for Working Families Act, the party’s signature early learning bill that would expand access to pre-K and create a child care entitlement program.   The bill is led by the current House education committee ranking member Bobby Scott (D-Va.) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a senior member and former chair of the Senate education committee.   The bill has prominent backers, including the No. 2 and No. 3 House Democrats: Whip Katherine Clark and caucus Chair Pete Aguilar. In the Senate, Minority Leader Schumer and Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who is also a member of Democratic leadership, are co-sponsors of the bill.   — Committee gavels: Democratic control intensifies a contested race to chair the House Education and Workforce Committee. Scott, the current ranking member, is running to continue leading Democrats on the panel. Scott, who has served as the panel’s top Democrat since 2015, is facing challenges from Reps. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) and Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.) — both members of the committee.   Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is in line to chair the Senate education committee. — Mackenzie Wilkes Defense — Hegseth investigations incoming: A Democratic majority will likely result in more scrutiny for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Pentagon. Democratic lawmakers have promised to hold hearings and investigate the Pentagon.   The House and Senate Armed Services Committees are expected to probe several Pentagon controversies in which they suspect wrongdoing or corruption. The list includes pressing for a full accounting of the cost and impact of the Iran war, concerns about politicization of the military, allegations of war crimes, Pentagon business dealings and the abrupt firings of senior military officers.   House Democrats also are considering impeaching Hegseth. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, likely the next speaker, has hinted at doing so. He said ahead of the election that Democrats would hold Hegseth accountable if Trump doesn't remove him.   — Budget busting: Trump's mammoth $1.5 trillion defense budget proposal was already a long shot under GOP control. But Democratic wins end any chance of enacting such a large defense increase. Trump and Republicans aimed to pass a significant portion of that build-up, roughly $350 billion, through the party-line reconciliation process. Republicans losing their complete control of Congress will make that impossible.   The incoming Democratic majority will grapple with how to rein in Trump and an unpopular war. If the conflict drags into next year, expect Democrats to attempt to bar any new funding for military operations against Iran. — Connor O'Brien Health Care — Democrats’ health care decision: With Democrats poised to take charge of Congress, the party faces a pivotal health care policy decision: keep the Obamacare formula of expanding America’s health insurance safety net bit by bit or blow up the system and embrace “Medicare for All.”   Expect the surging progressive and democratic socialist factions to pursue the latter choice aggressively now that voters who struggle to pay their bills have purged Republicans from office — even in red states.   Polling shows Medicare for All has never been more popular. KFF, a Washington-based health policy research group, found in September that 2 in 3 adults favor “a single government plan.”   Nevertheless, expect some skepticism from party leaders.   Neither the likely new speaker, Hakeem Jeffries, nor Senate Majority Leader Schumer has sponsored the current iteration of Medicare for All legislation. And KFF’s poll found support plummeted among respondents when they were told the plan would delay medical tests and treatments or increase taxes. Jeffries did back a Medicare for All bill in 2019, when he chaired the Democratic caucus.   If Democrats decide not to go there, their policy wish list will center on undoing the $1 billion in Medicaid cuts that the GOP enacted in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and restoring the enhanced Obamacare subsidies that Republicans let expire at the end of 2025 — potentially making those subsidies permanent. — Health Care team Transportation — Big questions for lame duck agenda: There’s plenty of unfinished business for Congress after the midterms — it just remains to be seen which transportation matters will be tackled during the holidays and what gets punted to 2027. A second surface transportation extension is widely anticipated as a Dec. 11 deadline to re-up lapsing authorities nears. A bipartisan bill to crack down on Chinese-tied cars is up in the air. And negotiators are trying to cut a deal on competing House and Senate approaches to addressing last year’s Washington midair disaster.   — What about 2027? Transportation action next year will depend on how much lawmakers get done in the lame duck. Another stab at a full surface reauthorization is expected. Congress will begin preparing for the new FAA bill, with the current one set to expire at the end of fiscal 2028. And with Democrats in control of both chambers, a smattering of other topics could take center stage, including the industry-opposed (but White House-backed) Railway Safety Act and oversight of the Trump administration’s grant cuts and freezes.   — New faces: The lame duck will be full of committee shuffling, especially on the House’s transportation panel, which is poised to see significant turnover. Many of its prominent members are departing the chamber, for example, and it’s poised to be led by Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), the current ranking member. He’s interested in digging into the Trump administration’s slow walking of certain infrastructure funds. In the Senate, the Commerce Committee is poised to be led by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), the current ranking member. At the Environment and Public Works Committee, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) is seen as the likely chair — Sam Ogozalek Technology — Pull up a chair, Brendan Carr: Democratic chairs will likely bring the heat for Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr, who they fear is unduly pressuring media President Trump has accused of being biased against conservatives, like “The View” and ABC late-night host Jimmy Kimmel.   Democratic scrutiny of Carr could play out across several congressional committees. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), the likely incoming chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, called on Carr to resign more than a year ago in the wake of his threats to broadcasters airing Kimmel. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who will likely helm the Judiciary Committee, has objected to Carr’s scrutiny this year of Disney’s ABC licenses and raised questions about Carr's dealings in mergers like last year’s Skydance acquisition of Paramount CBS. Other committees, like House Oversight, could call on Carr to testify over any number of issues of concern to Democrats.   — Tech oversight: With Democrats wielding their newfound committee gavels, tech companies can expect to be the focus of the caucus’ oversight priorities.   Progressives, most notably Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), have sent a series of letters to top AI labs asking them for information about cyberattacks and personnel decisions in a preview of the scrutiny they plan to bring to companies.   Those on committees with oversight authority have also told POLITICO that they expect to focus on tech companies in the coming Congress, with a particular focus on those that have made donations to Trump’s political operations or projects. Tech companies have already begun to see the tea leaves, running to K Street firms and seeking guidance from crisis communications experts.   — Chip crackdown: Democratic China hawks are poised to press ahead with efforts to limit the sale of advanced American AI chips to China. It’s expected that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who will likely chair the Senate Banking Committee, will come down hard on tech giant Nvidia and the company’s lobbying efforts to export more of its advanced chips to China.   Warren has repeatedly lambasted Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang over his company’s push to export its chips to China. She has been one of the leading voices on Capitol Hill opposing the White House’s decision last year to allow the export of Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips to China and has pushed various pieces of legislation aimed at curbing exports of advanced AI chips and chip manufacturing equipment.   — AI up for grabs: Democrats in both chambers are already positioning themselves as key AI policy players next Congress – it’s just unclear where they’ll land.   In the House, anticipation is building for a forthcoming AI safety framework from Democratic Reps. Sara Jacobs of California and Don Beyer of Virginia that would set minimum safety standards for AI labs, clarify liability rules and give the government emergency authority to shut down models that fail testing. The Democratic Commission on AI, led by Reps. Valerie Foushee of North Carolina, Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey and Ted Lieu of California, is hammering out an AI policy roadmap for the party that its members plan to submit to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries by the end of the year. And Reps. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.) and Sam Liccardo (D-Mass.), among others, have made clear in this Congress that they’re willing to reach across the aisle to pass a national standard, though not always in lockstep.   There’s less clarity in the Senate about which legislative ideas will win out next Congress. Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell, the top Democrat on the Commerce Committee and the likely next chair, released a framework in October sketching out her core AI safety principles. — John Hendel, Owen Dahlkamp, Kat Long and Gabby Miller Cybersecurity — CISA 2015 faces another renewal fight: Several key cyber policies are back on the agenda when Congress returns.   One of those policies is the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2015, which provides liability protections to private companies sharing cyber threat information with the government. It has repeatedly lapsed and been temporarily revived over the past two years and is set to expire once again on Dec. 11.   While lawmakers are likely to tack on another extension to the National Defense Authorization Act — the annual defense policy bill — CISA 2015's long-term future now rests on the Democrats, who will control the Senate Homeland Security Committee. The program has wide bipartisan support in the House, but Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), chair of the Senate panel since early 2025, vowed last year to block passage of a new CISA 2015 reauthorization bill unless a clause was added to ban the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency from carrying out its work to counter disinformation.   Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), a vocal cyber policy supporter, is likely to take the gavel in January, removing a major roadblock for CISA 2015’s reauthorization. Paul may not stay on as ranking member and is more likely to move up the ranks in the Senate Health Committee, where he is next in line as Republican leader when current Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) leaves in January.   — Cyber grants: Congress is also likely to renew the State and Local Cybersecurity Grant Program, which provided $1 billion to states and localities to strengthen cybersecurity programs, but expired at the end of September. House Homeland Security Committee ranking member Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) may become the panel's chair in January, and he told POLITICO in October that “extending this critical grant program will be a top — and early — priority next Congress.”   — Section 702 deadline: The future of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — a key but controversial law that allows the intelligence community to collect data on foreign targets but sometimes sweeps up data on Americans — is also up for renewal in the new year. Bipartisan privacy concerns surround the law, and while it's currently certified through March, intelligence agencies recently warned Congress that if lawmakers fail to vote on it before Nov. 20, it could go dark.   — AI hacking: Meanwhile, the debate in Congress about how to respond to artificial intelligence models with hacking capabilities is likely to continue. Officials have proposed a raft of measures to put guardrails around the technology, but lawmakers have not yet coalesced around one proposal. — Maggie Miller Energy — Democrats' green fork in the road: Democrats will face some tough choices in January over which Biden-era clean energy and climate policies they should try to revive — if any.   For now, Democratic leaders appear ready to restore tax credits for renewable energy sources like wind and solar. The long-standing incentives were expanded under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act but were curtailed in Republicans’ reconciliation bill last year, and both Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have committed to bringing them back.   But the effort has divided members of the Democratic caucus, as well as the clean energy sector. Some renewable energy developers, particularly in the solar sector, have urged Congress to leave the tax credits behind, wanting instead to demonstrate that their industry can stand on its own without government incentives.   Also up for debate will be whether Democrats revisit incentive programs for electric vehicle buyers. The EV tax credits of up to $7,500 per vehicle were once a centerpiece of Democrats’ clean energy agenda, but some lawmakers worry that momentum has been lost as electric vehicles’ popularity lags and amid criticism the credits favor wealthier car buyers. Schumer and Jeffries have been noncommittal on whether they’d seek to revive that credit. — Amelia Davidson

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/3)