The mid-level height anomaly pattern during the week exhibited an omega-block type pattern, with mean troughing over Alaska and both the West and East, with the western trough cutting off over California, and strong ridging between the troughs across the central contiguous US. This pattern promoted below-normal temperatures across the Southwest for much of the period, with colder air pushing eastward towards the end of the week followed by warming temperatures. Across the East, cooler air overspread New England and the mid-Atlantic, keeping evapotranspiration rates a bit lower than normal. In contrast, much above-normal temperatures were observed throughout the week across the northern Plains and upper-Midwest, though colder weather and storminess overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains at the end of the week.
An active pattern was noted across the Plains, South, and Southeast as a mean frontal boundary provided a focus for stormy weather. These rains, in conjunction with a wetter pattern overall during May, prompted widespread additional drought relief for the South and Southeast regions, as well as portions of the High Plains. In contrast, hot, dry weather across the northern Plains and upper-Midwest caused expansion of drought and abnormal dryness, with widespread degradation occurring in western portions of the Midwest region. Towards the end of the week, a storm system brought heavy precipitation to western and central Montana, bringing some drought relief following a period of hot, windy weather. Across the Northeast, additional rainfall benefitted portions of New England, while drier weather overspread the mid-Atlantic and southern New England following a wet week previously.
Northeast
A mid-week storm brought soaking rains across northern New England along with late high-elevation snow primarily across the White Mountains. This precipitation, locally exceeding 3 inches, was sufficient to generate additional reductions in drought and abnormal dryness across central New Hampshire and southern Maine. Locally heavy rainfall was also observed across northern West Virginia and far western Maryland, prompting additional reductions. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather prevailed during the week, especially across the mid-Atlantic states and southern New England. While topsoil conditions remain favorable following a wet week previously, the region is vulnerable to a quick return of short term impacts, especially since groundwater and reservoir levels, which are slower to recover than soils and small streams, remain below average. Temperatures during the week were unseasonably cool, keeping evapotranspirative demand lower than normal, which helped prevent any significant degradation. A few small spots across southern New England, including southern Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts, did note degradations.
Another stormy week across the Southeast led to widespread drought reductions, as many locations across the Deep South ended the month of May with 150 to 300 percent of normal precipitation. The heaviest rains, locally exceeding 6 inches, fell across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, portions of Georgia that had been experiencing D4, and the piedmont of South Carolina. Drought reduction occurred across nearly all of Alabama - which is now free of D2 or worse - and Georgia, which is now almost free of D4. Widespread drought reduction was also warranted across the Florida Panhandle, though thunderstorm activity was a bit spottier across the peninsula. Drought reductions were smaller in scale across North Carolina and Virginia, where the rains were more hit and miss. Despite all of these improvements, significant long term impacts to lake levels and groundwater remain, especially along the coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas, where widespread D3 remains in place, and along the Suwannee River basin, where D4 remains entrenched. Persistent above-normal precipitation over an extended period of time is needed to significantly overturn the effects of the long term drought.
Soaking rains overspread most of Texas during the week, promoting additional drought reductions, primarily across southern Texas and the Big Bend country. Rainfall also overspread eastern Oklahoma, but conditions worsened across the western half of the state which fared drier during the week. Along the lower Mississippi Valley, heavy rains, exceeding 6 inches in some locations, fell across northern Arkansas, promoting drought reduction. Soaking rains were less intense across Louisiana and Mississippi, but were still sufficient to promote substantial drought reduction at the tail end of a wet May. Although conditions have improved overall across the Southern Region, widespread D3 to D4 continues across northern Texas and western Oklahoma, and long term drought impacts to groundwater remain a concern heading into the summer months across the whole region.
While light showers fell across portions of Minnesota, Iowa, and central Wisconsin and along the Ohio River Valley, mostly dry conditions prevailed for another week across the rest of the Midwest region. This dryness, combined with hot temperatures, continued to stress lawns and spring crops and reduce streamflows and topsoil moisture, prompting widespread deterioration on this week's Drought Monitor despite longer term indices remaining more favorable. D0 expanded broadly across the middle and upper Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes region, with nearly all of Wisconsin now in D0. Pockets of moderate drought were introduced to northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, and along the Mississippi River just north of Iowa. Absent a shift towards a wetter pattern, this region is vulnerable to further rapid deterioration due to high evapotranspirative demand this time of year.
Stormy weather brought soaking rains across much of the High Plains, with the highest coverage and accumulations over Kansas and Nebraska. While beneficial, this precipitation competed during the week with much above-normal temperatures, which maintained high evapotranspirative demands. Accordingly, areas that missed out on significant rainfall, including portions of the Dakotas and far northern Nebraska, experienced some degradation, while reductions were noted across much of Kansas and eastern Nebraska. Further west, beneficial precipitation brought some relief to portions of the Colorado Plains and a few spots in Wyoming, while drier conditions resulted in deterioration in southwestern Colorado.
West
A late season storm system brought heavy rainfall to southern Oregon and northern California, sparking a few modest improvements but overall doing little to change the current drought depiction. Some degradations were noted across portions of California, Oregon, and the Great Basin, where impacts from a lack of snowmelt recharge - especially low streamflows - are beginning to be felt. Temperatures during the week were near to above-average across the Northwest, but below average across California, helping to keep evapotranspiration demands lower than average.
Caribbean
Despite an increasingly favorable MJO phase, suppressed convection remained dominant over the northern Caribbean region, including Puerto Rico, during the week. Impacts from the lack of precipitation over the last few weeks are beginning to increase, including reports of crop stress, groundwater reductions, and increased releases from dams to provide irrigation. Accordingly, D0 was expanded on the current USDM, and moderate drought (D1) was introduced to a few locations along the southern coastline where these impacts are the greatest. Given the developing El Niño and summer climatology, there is a concern for additional degradation over the next few weeks to months.
Dry conditions persisted across the U.S. Virgin Islands this week, with St. John and St. Thomas remaining in short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) while St. Croix degraded to short-term moderate drought (D1-S). On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.35 inches of rain, bringing the May total to 1.89 inches as of June 1, which was below the monthly normal. Groundwater levels at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well were 14.66 feet below the land surface on June 2; analysis shows that water levels have mostly declined since October 19, 2025. Over the past year, this groundwater level has dropped approximately 5.4 3 feet from the 9.29 feet reported on June 2, 2025. This localized dryness is backed up by the 1-month SPI, which indicates dry conditions on the island, with longer 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month SPI timescales still showing a mix of slightly wet or dry signals.
On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport reported a weekly rainfall total of 0.15 inches, bringing its May month total to 2.67 inches as of June 1. The depth to water at the Grade School 3 well was measured at 8.99 feet below the land surface on June 2, showing a slight increase of 0.2 feet from last week (May 26 - 9.16 feet). This brought an end to the declining groundwater levels that have been on a steady decline since late April and of 4.6 feet since June 2, 2025. SPI values confirm these emerging deficits, showing dry conditions at the 1-, 3- and 6-month timescales, while longer-term SPI timescales for the island were unavailable.
On St. Croix, a total of 0.19 inches of rain was reported on St. Croix at Henry Rohlsen Airport this week, leaving the month-to-date total at 1.25 inches as of June 1. The depth to water at the Adventure 28 Well was 21.98 feet below the land surface on June 2, reflecting a steady and severe decrease over the past year. This is a drop of 7.7 feet compared to this time last year, when the groundwater level sat at 14.24 feet on June 2, 2025. Reflecting this prolonged deficit, the 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month SPI values all confirm prevailing dry conditions on St. Croix. The lack of rain, declining well levels and dry SPI levels led to the introduction of short-term moderate drought (D1-S).
A cold, wet pattern persisted across Alaska during the past week, resulting in a second week in a row with the state free of any drought or abnormal dryness.
Rainfall across Hawaii was primarily concentrated on the windward sides of the islands, with lesser amounts falling across the remaining D0 areas of Maui and the Big Island. Precipitation was sufficient to maintain the status quo at this time, though recent VHI analyses reveal a potential concern for browning pastures or crop stress.
Rain was mixed across the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The islands of Jaluit and Majuro received adequate rainfall with 5.08 inches and 2.87 inches of rain this week, respectively. Ulirik recorded 1.26 inches this week but did fall short of the necessary monthly total in May with 7.69 inches. Mili and Ailinglapalap saw 0.77 inches and 0.2 inches respectively, while Kwajalein (0.03 inches) and Wotje (0.02 inches) received trace amounts of precipitation. All islands remain free of dryness.
The Federated States of Micronesia received heavy precipitation across most island, keeping them free of any dryness. All islands recording more than 2 inches of precipitation this week with: Chuuk Lagoon (5.74 inches), Pohnpei (3.28 inches) Nukuoro (3.12 inches), Lukunor (2.83 inches), Kapingamarangi (2.77 inches), Woleai (2.76 inches), Yap (2.54 inches), and Kosrae (2.1 inches). With Fananu, Pingelap and Ulithi having no data for analysis.
The Republic of Palau remains free of dryness with Koror recording 2.77 inches of rain this week following a wet May that recorded 17.54 inches.
The Marianas Islands saw a mix of light and good precipitation this week. Guam saw numerous locations over 2 inches of precipitation with Dededo recording 2.4 inches, Agat with 5.04 inches and the airport 2.89 inches of rain this week. Rota also recorded over 2 inches (2.29 inches) at the airport. While Saipan saw about half-an-inch of rain with Capitol Hill recording 0.5 inches and Saipan International Airport recording 0.47 inches. Tinian data is missing.
American Samoa experienced another wet week, with Pago Pago receiving 1.54 inches of rain. Additionally, the Siufaga and Toa Ridge received 3.1 inches and 1.49 inches of rain this week, respectively. American Samoa will remain free of drought and dryness.
Looking Ahead
At the start of the next 7 days, drier conditions are favored across much of the East, with daily temperatures quickly warming to above-normal. A storm system now over the Plains will progress slowly eastward, bringing a potential for much needed rainfall across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Current QPF forecasts from the Weather Prediction Center show amounts potentially exceeding 1.5 inches across much of Iowa and far southwestern Wisconsin, but lighter amounts elsewhere will likely be insufficient to overcome the high demands coming from much above-normal temperatures and summer agriculture, especially across Illinois, Indiana, and northern Minnesota. A gradual return to a summer convective regime is favored across the Southeast during the week, but accumulations are forecast to be less than what fell over the past few weeks, especially across northern Florida and east of the Appalachians. Seabreeze-driven convection is favored to remain active across South Florida. Mostly dry conditions are favored across the West, with a storm system bringing some precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. Meager precipitation is forecast for the Northeast region, raising concerns for a return of short term drought impacts.
During Week-2, weak troughing over Alaska is favored to maintain below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for another week. Downstream, positive height anomalies are forecast for most of the contiguous United States, leading to coast-to-coast enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures. The highest probabilities for above-normal temperatures extend across both the West and the Northeast. Enhanced low-level southerly flow in this pattern favors a wide open Gulf, with moist air penetrating far to the north across the central US. Any interactions with shortwave troughs or other synoptic features could trigger periods of organized convection. Therefore, a broad signal slightly favoring above-normal precipitation extends from the Gulf Coast through much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Near normal precipitation is the most likely outcome across the Northeast with weak troughing just offshore, and a slight tilt towards below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Pacific Northwest. Across Hawaii, both above-normal temperatures and precipitation are favored, based on a consensus of dynamical model guidance.
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