Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report is for the week ending March 1, 2026. By week’s end, 61 percent of Arizona barley had emerged, of which 15 percent had headed, up 2 and 15 percentage points, respectively, from the previous year’s levels. Arizona barley was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 9 percent of the crop rated fair. Similarly, 66 percent of Arizona’s Durum wheat had emerged, of which 13 percent had headed, up 5 and 13 percentage points, respectively, from the previous year’s levels. Arizona’s Durum wheat was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 1 percent of the crop rated fair. Alfalfa hay harvest continued to take place on approximately 55 percent of the crop’s acreage throughout the State. Arizona’s alfalfa crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 4 percent of the crop rated fair. Pasture and range conditions throughout the State deteriorated when compared to that of the previous report. Thirty-six percent of the State’s pasture and rangeland was rated very poor, 41 percent was rated poor, 15 percent was rated fair, and 8 percent was rated good. Reports from eastern counties have reiterated that grazing conditions continue to deteriorate as a result of prolonged drought. However, annual spring forages have emerged in areas of lower elevation which has provided some relief to livestock producers. Topsoil moisture levels continue to fall as much of the State has been affected by drought. Fifteen percent of the State is rated very short, 14 percent is rated short, and 71 percent is rated adequate. Subsoil moisture levels followed a similar trend. Over the past week, measurable precipitation was lacking across much of the State. However, throughout the month of February, Arizona experienced widespread precipitation across central areas. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), western areas of the San Francisco Plateau received the most precipitation, accumulating approximately 3.50 inches while other areas of the State received anywhere from trace amounts to 2.50 inches of total precipitation. The seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation outlooks for March, April, and May were issued by the National Weather Service on February 19, 2026. The seasonal mean temperature outlook continues to show that temperatures will likely be above normal for the entirety of the State, with southeastern regions having a higher probability of experiencing warmer temperatures than the remainder of the State. Similarly, the seasonal total precipitation outlook continues to show that precipitation will likely be below normal for the entirety of the State, with the eastern quarter of Arizona having a higher probability of experiencing below average precipitation than the remaining three-quarters of the State. Arizona’s seasonal drought outlook was updated on February 28, 2026. The outlook now shows that conditions are expected to persist throughout all areas of the State that were affected by moderate drought (D1) or higher on February 24. Excluding far western regions, drought development is expected across all remaining areas of the State. Current streamflow conditions were rated from much below to above normal. Streamflow conditions are suffering the most in the Upper San Pedro, Upper Santa Cruz, Upper Salt, and Lower Gila River Basins. As of February 24, 2026, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed no change in conditions when compared to that of the report dated January 27. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) bounded 34 percent of the State, moderate drought (D1) encompassed 28 percent, and severe drought (D2) enveloped 6 percent of the State’s total land area. Arizona remained free of extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought. Over the past week, temperatures were above normal according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). Daytime highs throughout Arizona ranged from 9 to 15 degrees above normal and ranged from the upper 50’s in north-central Coconino County to the mid 90’s across southwestern regions of the State. Overnight lows ranged from 3 degrees below to 15 degrees above normal and ranged from 25 to 45 degrees across northern and eastern counties, whereas counties within the Sonoran Desert experienced lows of 50 to 65 degrees Fahrenheit. 

CALIFORNIA: Days suitable for fieldwork 6.4. Topsoil moisture 90% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 5% short, 90% adequate and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% fair, 50% good, and 45% excellent. Winter wheat condition 5% fair, 25% good, and 70% excellent. As of March 2, snowpack content ranged from 9.8 in the Northern Sierra, 15.6 in the Central Sierra, and 18.8 in the Southern Sierra. After a relatively dry January, rain was abundant during February and provided much needed moisture. Winter grains grew in vibrant green hues and alfalfa fields continued to grow well. Wheat, oats, barley, and triticale were well established for the season. Wet field conditions limited mechanical field work towards the end of February. However, sunny afternoons toward the end of the month allowed growers to complete essential field preparations for spring crops. Winter vegetables grew quickly during the month, and some were harvested. There was some lack of availability of broccoli due to planting gaps from excessive rain during late November and early December. Carrot harvest neared completion in Kern County by months end, while harvest began in the Imperial Valley. The garlic crop was progressing well with good quality. In Tulare County, onions, kale, cauliflower and cabbage were harvested and available at farmers’ markets. Almond orchards bloomed during the month as brush was cleared and fallen trees were removed. Bee colonies were placed in almond orchards for pollination. Growers applied full bloom spray. Pistachio and walnut orchards were pruned and cleaned. Growers sprayed their orchards with fungicides, insecticides, and herbicides. Many sprayings were applied aerially due to the wet conditions. Stone fruit was in various stages of bloom throughout the month and leaves were emerging. Bee colonies were placed amid the blooming trees. Grape vineyards were pruned, and their vines were tied. Persimmon harvest was ongoing. Asian pear trees were blooming. Rain during the third week of February hampered berry harvest and was expected to improve by the end of the month. Olive orchards were pruned and cleaned. Navel orange, grapefruit, pummelo, tangelo, mandarin, and lemon harvests were ongoing, however there was some delay by heavy rainfall during the month. Rangeland remained green and lush with rising temperatures during the daytime and additional rain. Both irrigated and non-irrigated pastures were in good condition. Sheep were grazing on various alfalfa fields throughout the month. 

IDAHO: The average February temperatures were above normal across the State. High-elevation snow was good, but low- to mid-elevation snow and precipitation were lacking. The combination of warmer temperatures and limited moisture led to earlier than usual spring field preparations and caused soil moisture to fall below normal levels. Winter cereals and alfalfa began breaking dormancy ahead of schedule, and winter annual weeds grew rapidly. The mild winter reduced stress on new calves. Warmer weather also reduced the use of hay stocks, and supplies looked good heading into the calving and lambing season. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of February 2026. Topsoil moisture 12% very short, 60% short, 28% adequate. Subsoil moisture 11% very short, 68% short, 20% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 82% fair, 18% good. Winter wheat – wind damage was 3% none, 74% light, 14% moderate, 9% severe. Winter wheat – freeze damage 59% none, 26% light, 14% moderate, 1% severe. Winter wheat – protectiveness of snow cover 88% very poor, 9% poor, 3% fair. Pasture and range condition 35% very poor, 27% poor, 30% fair, 8% good. Livestock grazing accessibility 83% open, 11% difficult, 6% closed. Cows calved 10%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 88%. Ewes lambed 9%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 89%. February precipitation was average to well below average across much of the State, while average temperatures ran from 3 degrees to more than 15 degrees above average. Survey comments supported the noted weather information. Producer concerns centered around the lack of spring runoff relative to filling natural water sources for livestock and irrigation. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for February 24, roughly 10 percent of the State was drought free, compared with nearly 41 percent February 25, 2025. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at nearly 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at just over 38 percent, severe drought (D2) at 14 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at just over 4 percent. 

NEVADA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 5% short, 80% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 5% very short, 15% short, 75% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% very poor, 0% poor, 70% fair, 15% good, and 10% excellent. While Nevada saw some precipitation in February, it was not enough to improve the drought conditions from the previous month. As of February 24, 34% of the State was not in a drought, 45% of the State was abnormally dry, while 19% was in Moderate Drought and 2% was in Severe Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Alfalfa was still dormant. Annual weeds started to germinate. 

OREGON: In Polk County, February was dry until the final week. Three days of rain had led to ponding in crop fields. Spraying for weeds had begun. Hazelnut trees had produced many catkins, and pollination had occurred. In other parts of northwest Oregon, agronomic and horticultural crops had been good. It had been too wet to do any soil tilling, but there had been windows for crop protection applications. Benton and Lincoln counties experienced hail, snow, and flooding amid early spring growth. The significant rainfall and high tides caused localized flooding in pastureland. There had been an active growth of cool-season pasture grasses. While the snowpack in the Blue Mountains was well below normal, rainfall quantity and timing in lower elevations were beneficial for the wheat crop; however, stripe rust was evident on susceptible wheat varieties. Producers had begun preparing the ground for spring crops. In Malheur County, concerns over low snowpack and a lack of precipitation were growing ahead of the crop season. Lake County had received significant rainfall, helping increase storage levels in the reservoirs. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of February 2026. Topsoil moisture 8% very short, 36% short, 54% adequate, 2% surplus. Subsoil moisture 13% very short, 34% short, 53% adequate. Pasture and range condition 63% fair, 33% good, 4% excellent. Winter wheat condition 4% fair, 92% good, 4% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 9% very short, 22% short, 65% adequate, 4% surplus. Stock water supplies 10% short, 82% adequate, 8% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 18% fair, 40% good, 42% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 21% fair, 69% good, 10% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 90%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 91%. Cows calved 11%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 8%. Ewes lambed-range flock 4%. Mild temperatures along with a few snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of February. Snowpack in Utah, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service as of March 2, 2026, was 61 percent measured as percent of median snowfall Beaver, Cache, Grand, and Summit Counties noted conditions were mild and abnormally dry during February with below normal snowpack. Cache, Grand, and Summit Counties receive some rain or snow within the past week. Beaver and Summit Counties reports that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues. 

WASHINGTON: In Washington, snowpack remained significantly below normal. Overall, winter has been both warmer and drier than average. All regions received some moisture during the month, in most cases as rainfall. Producers across the State began moving forward with spring work. Winter crops generally looked good. Winter wheat mites were reported in northern Lincoln County, where some growers sprayed for them. Winter wheat was ahead of development, given the time of year. Herbicide spraying will start in the next few weeks as temperatures remain unseasonably warm. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of February 2026. Topsoil moisture 41% very short, 38% short, 21% adequate. Subsoil moisture 55% very short, 29% short, 16% adequate. Winter wheat condition 18% very poor, 33% poor, 48% fair, 1% good. Cows calved 11%. Ewes lambed 15%. Sheep shorn 25%. Livestock condition 1% very poor, 1% poor, 12% fair, 73% good, 13% excellent. Pasture and range condition 20% very poor, 28% poor, 28% fair, 24% good. Hay and roughage supplies 3% very short, 16% short, 71% adequate, 10% surplus. Stock water supplies 20% very short, 21% short, 55% adequate, 4% surplus. February precipitation varied from average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran 6 degrees to more than 15 degrees above average. Survey comments noted extreme dryness across several counties, while other areas had received mountain snow and lever elevation rainfall. Producer concerns centered around diminished snowpack across most mountain ranges in the State, and the result that will have on irrigation water supplies. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for February 24, roughly 6 percent of the State was drought free, compared with about 4 percent drought free on February 25, 2025. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at just over 15 percent, moderate drought (D1) at just over 50 percent, severe drought (D2) at nearly 25 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at just over 3 percent.

Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index dropped from 136 in December 2025 to 113 in January 2026 (see Figure 1). The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points while the Future Expectations Index dropped 25 points. Among the five indices that make up the AEB Index, the largest decline was in the question asking participants whether U.S. agriculture would have good times or bad times in the next five years. The index for this question fell from 122 to 88, marking its lowest point since September 2024. Respondents also expressed greater concerns about agricultural exports compared to last month. The January barometer survey took place from January 12-16, 2026. As a point of reference, the January WASDE report was released on January 12.

One-half of the producers surveyed reported that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago. Moreover, looking ahead 12 months, 30% expected worse financial performance, compared to 20% who expected better financial performance. At a reading of 47, the Farm Capital Investment Index decreased by 11 points from the previous month, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. Only 4% of the survey respondents indicated that they planned to increase farm machinery purchases in the upcoming year.

Since 2020, each January barometer survey has included questions about farmers’ operating loans for the upcoming year. The percentage of respondents who said they expect to have a larger operating loan this year compared to a year ago rose to 21%, up from 18% last year. In a follow-up question, producers who expect to have a larger operating loan were asked about the reasons for the increase. This year, 31% of producers who expect their loan size to increase said it was because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year, up from 23% in 2025, 17% in 2024, and only 5% in 2023. These results are consistent with respondents’ concerns about their financial performance.

Farmers’ perspective on U.S. agricultural exports was more pessimistic in January. Responding to a broad question about the future of agricultural exports, 16% of the respondents looked for exports to decline over the next five years. In contrast, only 5% of the respondents in December expected exports to decline. When asked to focus more specifically on soybeans, a key agricultural export, 21% of corn and soybean producers in January said they expect soybean exports to decline over the upcoming five years, up from 13% of growers who felt that way in December. Increasing competition from Brazil is weighing on producers’ minds. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports versus Brazil’s, with 44% indicating they were very concerned.

Respondents remained optimistic about short-term farmland values in January, but optimism regarding long-run land values waned. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained unchanged at 117. After reaching a new record high of 166 in December, the long-term index declined to 152 in January. Alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates were cited as the three factors having the most influence on farmland values.

This month’s survey included a question related to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December. Corn and soybean producers were asked about the use of these payments. Over 50% of the respondents indicated that these payments would be used to pay down debt. Another 25% of respondents said that they would use these payments to improve working capital. The remainder noted that these payments would be used for family living (10% of respondents) or to invest in farm machinery (12% of respondents).

As in the last few months, producers were asked if the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track”. The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment declined sharply in January amid growing concerns about the agricultural economy. The percentage of producers who expected there to be bad financial times in the next twelve months increased from 47% in December 2025 to 59% in January 2026, while the percentage of producers who thought U.S. agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years increased from 24% to 46%.

Respondents were also more concerned about exports in January, with 16% expecting exports to decrease in the next five years. When asked about operating loans in the upcoming year, 21% indicated that they expected their operating loan to increase. Although an increase in input costs was the primary reason for this increase, 31% indicated that the increase was due to unpaid operating debt from prior years. Finally, despite the announcement of the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments in late December, the percentage of producers who thought the U.S. was heading in the right direction dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Taken together, these results suggest that producer sentiment shifted notably at the turn of the year, with farmers beginning 2026 in a more pessimistic frame of mind.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/3)

March Washington DC Preview

Now that March is underway, lawmakers were finally gearing up to take on a series of long-running legislative fights. But the U.S. strike on Iran has suddenly thrown Congress's plans off track. POLITICO policy teams break down how Capitol Hill is figuring out its next moves. — Lawmakers briefed on the attacks against Iran have been told to expect weeks of continued military pressure.   — The fight over legislation between banks and crypto companies comes to a head this month.   — Some lawmakers are pessimistic that a bipartisan coalition can come together to pass a new farm bill. Agriculture — It’s farm bill groundhog day: House lawmakers are set to hold a markup of the bill the first week of March, but some are already casting doubt that the bipartisan coalition that has historically come together will pass the legislation.   Congress must pass an extension of the current legislation by the end of 2026 if they can’t agree on a new bill. Cuts to food aid spending and farm safety net provisions that are traditionally included in the farm bill were enacted as part of Republicans’ domestic tax and spending package last year.   USDA is rolling out $11 billion in ad hoc relief for farmers as part of the Farmer Bridge Assistance through a new application and filing system. Lawmakers have already talked about another assistance package sometime this year, but the specifics remain vague. — Bird flu: Avian influenza has ticked up in 2026, with more than 10 million birds culled in the first two months of this year, up from just 2 million in the preceding two months. Infections are especially acute in Pennsylvania and could spur renewed policy debate over a vaccine or other federal solution. The current national outbreak dates from 2022 and has forced the culling of nearly 200million birds.   — Regulatory affairs: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s long-heralded reform of the “generally recognized as safe” regulatory pathway for food ingredients could be released this spring, according to the Office of Management and Budget’s Unified Agenda. The FDA is also expected to release a study on heavy metals in infant formula this spring.   Beginning March 1, Colorado will become the ninth state to begin limiting foods SNAP participants can buy with federal aid as part of the Trump administration’s effort to cut junk food from the nation’s largest anti-hunger program.   USDA has also foreshadowed that additional information about the department’s reorganization is expected in the coming weeks. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the plan is intended to bring departmental staff closer to the constituencies they serve, though the vast majority of USDA staff already work in offices outside the Capital Region.   — Pesticide fallout: The Make America Healthy Again movement is still seething over President Trump’s executive order boosting domestic production of glyphosate, a commonly used herbicide the MAHA movement has pushed to phase out. The move has threatened a key coalition that helped elect Trump in 2024 and could cause problems for down-ballot Republicans who hoped to rely on MAHA advocates for reelection support. MAHA is also gearing up to oppose language in the farm bill that would make it harder to sue pesticide manufacturers and vowed to mount primaries against lawmakers who vote for it.   — Tariffs: After the Supreme Court threw a wrench in the president’s tariffs, ag groups are looking for certainty — and not new tariffs. Any lawsuits against the new tariffs the president has imposed under Section 122 could also cause problems for the industry if it prompts any countries to back away from previously agreed-to deals. — Marcia Brown Trade — After SCOTUS rebuke, Trump pivots on tariffs: The Trump administration is scrambling to erect a new set of tariffs after the Supreme Court invalidated a large chunk of the duties the president imposed last year under a 1977 emergency law.   The 6-3 decision wiped out the 10 percent tariff President Trump imposed last April on nearly every country in the world, as well as specific, higher tariffs on some of the top U.S. trading partners including Canada, Mexico, China, the European Union, Japan and South Korea.   It represented a rare instance of the conservative-led court reining in Trump’s expansive use of executive power. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch joined the court’s three liberals in the majority.   In response, the president signed a new executive order imposing a “temporary” 10 percent global tariff that went into effect on Feb. 24. Those tariffs, imposed under a different section of trade law, could also end up facing legal challenges.   And Section 122, as the statute is known, won’t allow the president the kind of flexibility wielded under the emergency powers law. By law, the tariff must be “nondiscriminatory,” meaning the U.S. can’t give breaks to certain trading partners and not others. It also only allows the president to impose the duty for 150 days, after which it must be approved by Congress.   — Agency actions: The U.S. trade representative and Commerce Department, meanwhile, are racing to complete new and existing trade investigations that could be used as the legal basis for tariff increases on specific countries and industries.   USTR Jamieson Greer has outlined plans for an aggressive set of Section 301 investigations to keep tariffs in place after Trump’s new Section 122 duties expire after 150 days on July 24.   The trade office, in a press release responding to the court’s ruling said it expects the investigations to cover “most major trading partners” and topics including “industrial excess capacity, forced labor, pharmaceutical pricing practices, discrimination against U.S. technology companies and digital goods and services, digital services taxes, ocean pollution, and practices related to the trade in seafood, rice, and other products.”   Commerce Undersecretary for International Trade William Kimmitt said last week that his agency is also considering a number of Section 232 investigations to protect industries it believes are important to national security, although Kimmitt denied that the investigations were related to the Supreme Court ruling.   Kimmitt also noted the Commerce Department still has several active 232 investigations.   Those include semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, polysilicon, wind turbines, medical products, unmanned aircraft systems and roboticsand industrial machinery. — Doug Palmer, Ari Hawkins, Emily Cadei Financial Services —  Crypto legislation: Senators are hoping to revive a push to pass landmark cryptocurrency legislation this month. The bill is stalled amid a dispute between the banking industry and crypto companies over whether digital asset exchanges should be allowed to pay yield to holders of stablecoins, which are tokens whose value is pegged to the U.S. dollar. The White House is mediating talks between the two industries in hopes of reaching a deal to unlock enough support to advance the bill.   — Housing bill: The Senate is also expected to vote on the highly anticipated, bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act, a comprehensive package aimed at tackling affordability and supply shortages, during the first half of March.   — Institutional investors: The House Financial Services Committee will hold a markup on March 4 that is likely to include a provision to curb the ability of institutional investors to purchase single-family homes, a proposal that has bipartisan support but is still at the discussion stage.   — Private markets: The Trump administration has made no secret of its desire to open up opaque private credit markets. Now, even as investors fret over the risks that lie within some parts of the business, the Labor Department is moving to do just that. It is expected in the coming weeks to release a long-awaited plan designed to empower investment managers for 401(k)s and other similar retirement products to invest in private equity, private credit and other alternative assets that, proponents say, are critical to preparing Americans for retirement. The Securities and Exchange Commission, meanwhile, will hold a roundtable on March 4 on private markets as it considers its own efforts to open them up.   — Corporate reports: Trump’s call for companies to report earnings semi-annually instead of quarterly could soon come to a head. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said the Wall Street regulator is fast-tracking a proposal in response to Trump’s idea, potentially setting the stage for an early 2026 release that will unleash a lobbying war in Washington.   — Basel III: Starting this month, all anyone in the banking world will be talking about is Basel III, the international capital standards agreement, for which the U.S. is expected to submit its proposal this spring. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. submittedtheir proposals to the Office of Management and Budget in February. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman started to tease some of the central bank’s proposals, announcing recently that mortgage-related assets will start to be treated differently in capital ratios. — Jasper Goodman, Katherine, Hapgood, Declan Harty, Aiden Reiter Tax — On the hot seat: Frank Bisignano, the CEO of the IRS, is slated to appear Wednesday before the House Ways and Means Committee, and it will likely be a contentious hearing.   It will be his first appearance before tax writers since the administration created the position for him, and Democrats will likely have lots of hostile questions on a range of issues: the agency’s data sharing with the Department of Homeland Security; the filing season; and the ongoing fallout from the huge cuts the administration has made to the agency’s workforce.   Republicans meanwhile will likely emphasize the big refunds many taxpayers are expected to see this filing season. Bisignano does double duty as head of the Social Security Administration and lawmakers will likely have plenty of questions on that too.   — Tax law moves: The tax world will also be keeping an eye on lawmakers for signs they might be able to move tax legislation this year. Expectations are low but Ways and Means Republicans hope to be able to at least unveil this year a discussion draft of proposed changes to how digital assets are taxed. And the heads of the tax committee would also love to be able to move a number of relatively minor bills aimed at improving tax administration. Last week, Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) unveiled a long list of changes they’ve agreed to make.   Meantime, the Treasury Department continues to churn out regulations filling in the details of Republicans’ signature tax cuts. Many in the financial world are especially eager to learn more about how the new ‘Trump account’ investment program for children will work. — Brian Faler Employment and Immigration — Worker classification battle: The Labor Department proposed rolling back the Biden administration’s rule that sought to clarify the difference between employees and independent contractors.   DOL argued the standard makes it harder for employers to allow workers to remain independent — a view shared by companies with app-based businesses, which say their workers value the flexibility their platforms provide.   — Joint employer drama: The National Labor Relations Board, now controlled by Trump appointees, formally scrapped the Biden administration’s joint-employer test and finalized a new rule restoring language from its 2020 standard after a federal judge struck down the policy in 2024.   The move comes as House Republicans map out their own joint employer legislation aimed at supporting franchise groups, which they claim would suffer under the Biden-era proposal.   Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) told POLITICO in an interview that he’s backing Rep. Kevin Hern’s (R-Okla.) American Franchise Act, sidestepping legislation backed by House Education and Workforce Chair Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) that failed to receive a vote on the House floor after a revolt from a small group of GOP lawmakers.   — Feds in flux: The Office of Personnel Management is continuing to advance the Trump administration’s effort to overhaul the civil service.   OPM unveiled a plan for the agency to assume the Merit Systems Protection Board’s role in handling federal employees’ appeals of their firings.   OPM Director Scott Kupor told POLITICO at a roundtable that the federal government was not at “maximum efficiency” and declined to rule out future reductions-in-force or RIFs.   The agency also proposed a rule that would cap the number of above-average ratings that employees could receive, arguing that grades are currently being inflated across the federal workforce. — Lawrence Ukenye Education — Education Department deconstruction: The Trump administration is expanding its efforts to break up the Education Department.   The agency’s work related to school shootings and student mental health programs will now shift to the Department of Health and Human Services, the administration announced last week. And the State Department will be tasked to help the Education Department manage how the federal government monitors the flow of billions of dollars in foreign gifts and contracts to higher education institutions.   These moves build on previous agreements announced last year to transfer education programs to other federal agencies. If completed, they will spread responsibility for administering tens of billions of dollars in school-related spending across the federal government.   — HHS's role: The latest moves, which are happening despite bipartisan congressional disapproval of Trump’s department breakup plan, were particularly notable because they involve Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s agency in a new role managing the government’s response to school violence across the country.   But key questions remain about the administration’s plans for the Education Department’s multibillion-dollar programs for students with disabilities. RFK Jr.’s agency has been considered a potential landing spot for these programs, but the administration said nothing about its plans last week.   — Problems and resistance: The overall moves are intended to deliver on Trump’s often-touted promise to completely shutter the Education Department and serve as a test case to Congress that a unified education agency is no longer needed. Complaints about faulty implementation are growing as logistical and technical challenges emerge during the program-transition process.   Congressional leaders this year defied Trump’s proposals to slash the Education Department’s budget, including many of the programs affected by the latest transfer plans. Lawmakers added nonbinding language to the current year spending bill stating the department has “no authorities” to transfer its duties to other agencies. — Juan Perez Jr. Defense — Iran war in focus: The fallout from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will take center stage.   Administration officials are fanning out to brief lawmakers and committee staff amid questions about how long the operations will last, the danger of an expanded war in the Middle East, the impact to U.S. military readiness and the long-term plan for Iran.   Lawmakers briefed on Operation Epic Fury have been told to expect weeks of continued military pressure, a shift from the quick-hit bombing the U.S. undertook last year against Iran's nuclear sites.   This week is also expected to see tense debate and votes in both the House and Senate to block further attacks against Iran unless authorized by Congress. Democrats unsuccessfully urged GOP leaders to reconvene early to hold war powers votes.   Those dual votes are likely to be long shots. Despite a handful of Republicans who have expressed concerns about President Donald Trump launching the massive operation without input from Congress, several Democrats have indicated they won't support reining in strikes against Iran.   — Strategic showdown: The Senate and House Armed Services Committees will take their first crack at the Trump administration's new defense strategy this week. Both panels will hear from Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby in sessions that will give lawmakers ample opportunity to air concerns with the administration’s shift in global priorities.   The blueprint — which will heavily inform the Pentagon’s upcoming budget, pegged at $1.5 trillion — prioritizes the U.S. homeland and the Western Hemisphere above other threats and regions. This is a significant shift from past Trump and Biden strategies that prioritized China as the top international challenge.   Many Republicans have supported Trump’s efforts in the U.S.’s backyard, including strikes against suspected drug boats and the capture of former Venezuela leader Nicholas Maduro. But China hawks have expressed concerns about those priorities supplanting a strategic goal of deterring Beijing.   Top Republicans, including Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker and House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers, have sounded alarms about administration moves that would reduce U.S. troops in Europe and minimize America’s commitment to NATO. The new strategy signals the administration’s view of the continent’s declining importance.   Colby’s defense of the strategy, and lawmakers’ response to the document, could signal shifts in Pentagon budget priorities. And the hearings may indicate how lawmakers seek to counter efforts by the administration they view as drastic. — Connor O'Brien Health Care — Shakeup at HHS: There’s new leadership at the Health and Human Services Department. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s top deputy, Jim O’Neill, departed in mid-February and General Counsel Mike Stuart is on the way out.   It’s part of a larger overhaul aimed at refocusing the department for the midterm elections on the most popular element of Kennedy’s Make America Healthy Again agenda, encouraging people to eat healthy food, and on price cuts President Trump has negotiated with drug companies.   Chris Klomp, deputy administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, got a promotion amidst the changes. He’s now chief counselor in charge of overseeing all department operations. Klomp’s work on Trump’s push to lower drug prices has elevated his profile. He was a health tech executive and venture capitalist before joining the administration last year.   Kennedy also elevated Kyle Diamantas and Grace Graham to senior counselors for the Food and Drug Administration. They also retained their prior roles as deputy commissioner for human foods and deputy commissioner for policy, legislation and international affairs, respectively. John Brooks is now a senior counselor at CMS in addition to his job as chief policy and regulatory officer.   — Drug approvals: The FDA released draft guidance to help manufacturers of personalized therapies for rare diseases win agency approval in an area of drug development the agency is trying to cultivate.   But it comes amid a recent spate of complete response letters — essentially rejections of drug applications in their submitted form — that have raised questions about the agency’s flexibility under Commissioner Marty Makary’s leadership even as he touts efforts to make it easier for rare disease manufacturers to bring products to market.   The FDA has come under heavy criticism from pharmaceutical companies for a slowdown in novel drug approvals.   The new guidance seeks to emulate the agency’s experience green-lighting a bespoke gene-editing therapy for a newborn known as “Baby KJ”. The baby was born with a rare, life-threatening metabolic condition in which he couldn’t process ammonia out of his body.   The so-called plausible mechanism framework focuses on treatments targeting known abnormalities in cells, genes or molecules to correct the disease’s root cause. It aims to build on existing FDA guidance for rare disease drug development by describing when data collected on individualized therapies can sufficiently support marketing approval. Small population sizes for rare diseases have historically hindered drugmakers’ ability to support their applications with data from large randomized trials.   The agency is now taking comment on the draft guidance. — Health Care Pro Team Transportation — DHS shutdown hits some travelers: As the partial government shutdown continues for the Department of Homeland Security, travelers have been unable to utilize CBP’s Global Entry and breeze through clearance at U.S. ports of entry. DHS at first said TSA’s PreCheck program would also be sidelined but quickly reversed course following public outcry. Global Entry, however, remains shuttered — a decision that domestic travel groups and some Democrats have called illogical, wasteful, and “stupid.” Neither were halted during last fall’s shutdown.   Lawmakers have made little progress on ending the shutdown anytime soon, as a vote on Homeland Security funding failed again in the Senate in late February. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he’d support the White House if it figures out a way to pay TSA workers amid the ongoing shutdown — suggesting an agreement is far from the finish line. And if TSA agents start missing paychecks and then missing work, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem told CNN that PreCheck could be in the crosshairs again.   — ROTOR Act implodes in the House: In a surprise, the House failed in late February to pass the first major legislative response to last year’s deadly midair collision outside Reagan Washington National Airport. The ROTOR Act from Sen. Commerce Chair Ted Cruz was narrowly voted down, and now, top House lawmakers say they’ll instead take up Rep. Sam Graves’ (R-Mo.) competing ALERT Act.   There is now uncertainty on the path forward, as Cruz has vowed to continue to push his bill mandating ADS-B In technologies for aircraft that need ADS-B Out in busy airspace. The ALERT Act, meanwhile, does not mandate that advanced-location tracking technology for all aircraft, giving certain military aircraft more leeway to comply with proposed safety directives. A big wild card in the path forward is the Defense Department, which pulled its support for the ROTOR ACT just ahead of the vote, citing budgetary and national security concerns. Graves told POLITICO he intends to mark up the ALERT ACT in early March and said he’s willing to find a compromise solution between the bills.   — Gateway Project is back on (for now): Construction resumed in late February on the $16 billion Gateway tunnel project spanning New York and New Jersey, following months of uncertainty and a halt to construction earlier in the month. A federal court ordered the Trump administration to unfreeze federal funding for the passenger rail tunnel project that was being withheld since last year. Resuming construction paves the way for the nation’s largest infrastructure project, a win for both the New Jersey and New York Democrats who fought the Trump administration on the funding freeze. That said, the Trump administration continues to press its case in court and two major contracts — for the Hudson River Tunnel and New Jersey Surface Alignment — remain on hold. — Oriana Pawlyk Technology — AI deadline looms for agencies: March 11 is a key 90-day deadline by which certain federal agencies must comply with the artificial intelligence executive order President Trump signed in December, and it carries significant tasks for the Commerce and Justice Departments.   Many of these agency activities are intended to deter states from imposing their own laws on AI. Preempting those laws is a GOP priority that has so far fallen short on Capitol Hill.   — Directives on deck: Working with AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks and other senior White House officials, Commerce must publish an evaluation of “onerous” state AI laws, including those requiring AI models to alter “truthful” outputs or compel developers to disclose information in ways that violate the First Amendment.   The Justice Department is tasked with standing up an “AI Litigation Task Force,” where it will identify state AI laws that it believes unconstitutionally regulate interstate commerce, are preempted by existing federal regulations or otherwise at the attorney general’s discretion. Government lawyers are then expected to challenge them. Cybersecurity — Can Nick Anderson turn CISA’s ship around?: The Trump administration announced last week the sudden reassignment of CISA’s acting director, Madhu Gottumukkala. His replacement, the former head of the agency’s flagship cybersecurity division, Nick Anderson, is now at the helm.   A veteran of the first Trump administration’s cyber policy team, Anderson is well-regarded in the industry. It’s unlikely to be smooth sailing, however, given the ongoing staffing shortage at CISA, the delay in confirming a permanent director and the ongoing shutdown affecting CISA funding.   — How long will Congress play chicken with DHS?: Nearly two weeks have passed since many DHS staff got their last paycheck, and Republicans and Democrats seem no closer to striking a deal on immigration enforcement. That is going to present major hurdles for CISA.   Gottumukkala testified in February that the shutdown would hamper some of the agency’s proactive defense efforts, while stalling key policy projects, such as finalizing a landmark cyber incident reporting rule. The pay freeze for agency staff is not going to help the agency’s morale problem, either.   — Plankey: Senate Republicans have blocked President Trump’s pick to be the next CISA Director, Sean Plankey, for months now over political spats.   One obstacle to Plankey’s confirmation should dissolve in the first week of March, as DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is set to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Panel member Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) had been blocking all DHS nominations until then. The second obstacle, from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), may stick around longer. But Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Fla.) in February moved to scrutinize the shipbuilding company at the center of Scott’s hold. — John Sakellariadis