High Input-Cost Concerns Continue to Weigh on Farmer Sentiment

Farmer sentiment dropped again in June as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index declined from 119 points in May to 113 points in June. The Index of Current Conditions fell by 5 points, while the Index of Future Expectations fell by 7 points. June’s Current Conditions Index was 26 points below its December 2025 reading, reaching its lowest level since December 2024. The percentage of respondents who listed high input costs as their biggest concern was 47% in June, with the concern about low crop and livestock prices at 23% coming in as a distant second. In a related question, 42% of respondents indicated that high input costs are limiting improvements in their financial position this year. The June barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the country from June 15 to 19, 2026.

Only 12% of respondents indicated that their farm operations were better off in June than they had been a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 22% of respondents expect their farms to be better off financially a year from now. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 1 point to 40, its lowest level since September 2024.

As in last month’s survey, the June survey asked farmers to identify the main factor limiting improvement in their farm’s financial situation. High input costs were by far the most frequently cited constraint, selected by 42% of respondents. Low output prices ranked second at 17%, followed by weather risk at 14%, policy uncertainty at 11%, labor and equipment concerns at 9%, and debt or financial pressure at 8%.

This month’s survey included two questions related to the use of artificial intelligence (AI) or data-driven tools in agriculture. The first question asked survey respondents what they viewed as the main benefit of using these tools. Approximately 23% of respondents indicated that an increase in production would be the main benefit. Reducing labor and reducing risk or uncertainty were chosen by 14% and 11% of respondents, respectively. Meanwhile, 52% of respondents said they did not see a meaningful benefit. A second question asked whether recommendations arising from data-driven tools would be difficult to follow. Approximately 63% of respondents indicated that recommendations would be sometimes difficult to follow, while 22% indicated that recommendations would often be difficult to follow.

This month’s survey also examined agricultural exports and attitudes toward free trade. Approximately 43% of respondents expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, while only 9% expected agricultural exports to decline. Respondents were also asked how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” Nearly 85% agreed or strongly agreed with this statement.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index declined from 130 in May to 124 in June, while the long-term index increased to 166, tying its record high. Alternative investments, net farm income, and inflation were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track.” After averaging 71% over the last six months of 2025, the percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” was 52% in May and 53% in June.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment decreased from 119 in May to 113 in June, with declines in sentiment regarding both current conditions and future expectations. The percentage of producers who expected good times over the next five years was 32% in June, which is 17 percentage points lower than in the June 2025 survey results. There continued to be a large disparity in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 25% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 68% expected good times for livestock producers.

Input costs remained a top concern, with high input costs identified as the most important factor limiting improvements in financial performance. Despite concerns about the future, respondents remained optimistic regarding both short-term and long-term land values.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (7/7)

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn Rated 67% Good to Excellent; Soybeans 64% Good to Excellent as of July 5

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. corn good-to-excellent condition ratings were unchanged while soybean good-to-excellent condition ratings declined from the previous week, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released Monday.

After a week of extreme heat followed by widespread rain and thunderstorms, weather conditions are shifting toward milder temperatures and continued precipitation across much of the Corn Belt, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn silking was pegged at 16%, 1 percentage point behind last year's 17% and 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 14%. Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 3%, steady with last year and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 2%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 67% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, steady with the previous week and 7 points below last year's 74%. Eight percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, steady with the previous week and 3 points above the previous year's 5%. DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery noted that top-producing state Iowa remained a leader at 78% good to excellent, while second-ranked Illinois saw its good-to-excellent rating fall again to 58%/

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans blooming was pegged at 34%, 4 points ahead of last year's 30% and 6 points ahead of the five-year average of 28%. Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 9%, 2 points ahead of last year's 7% and 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 6%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 64% of soybeans that had emerged were in good-to-excellent condition, 1 point below the previous week of 65% and 2 points below the previous year of 66%. North Dakota and Michigan posted the largest weekly declines, with each state's good-to-excellent rating falling 10 percentage points, while top-producing Illinois saw its ratings improve, Montgomery said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Harvest moved ahead 11 percentage points last week to reach 59% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 8 points ahead of last year and the five-year average of 51%. Kansas' winter wheat was 91% harvested, Indiana was 61% and Oklahoma was 98%. Despite USDA forecasting the smallest U.S. winter wheat crop in 61 years, harvest remains ahead of the average pace for early July, Montgomery said.

-- Crop condition: An estimated 26% of winter wheat was rated good to excellent as of July 5, steady with the previous week and 22 points below 48% a year ago, according to NASS.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Crop development: Fifty-four percent of spring wheat was headed, 4 points behind last year's pace of 58% and steady with the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 57% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, down 2 points from 59% the previous week.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

An active weather pattern featuring scattered showers, thunderstorms and milder temperatures is expected to continue across much of the country this week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Last week's heatwave ended with a lot of widespread rain and thunderstorms across the country.," Baranick said. "Either due to the heat or some flooding and storm damage, there could be a drop in ratings this week. However, in the long run, I think the widespread moisture we saw will go further as we see more corn and soybeans head into pollination over the next couple of weeks. And the rain won't really stop this week, either.

"Last weekend's storm system has settled into the South and Southeast and will be producing scattered showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week, which may include some areas of the southern Midwest as well. In addition, a front moving through the Northern Plains will move into the Upper Midwest on Monday, and slow-walk across the northern tier of the country through Thursday, producing showers and thunderstorms as it does. At the end of the week, we are expecting another little system to form on that front and move showers across central and southern areas of the country through the weekend. Though we won't see rain everywhere, all areas east of the Rockies have at least a chance for rain this week. Meanwhile, temperatures will be a bit milder than last week for just about everywhere as well. It will still feel like summer with a lot of 80s and lower 90s, but the extreme heat will be limited mostly to far southern areas this week."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn silking	16	9	17	14
Corn dough	3	NA	3	2
Soybeans blooming	34	19	30	28
Soybeans setting pods	9	4	7	6
Winter wheat harvested	59	48	51	51
Spring wheat headed	54	32	58	54
Cotton squaring	49	37	47	47
Cotton setting bolls	14	9	13	14
Sorghum planted	97	91	95	96
Sorghum headed	25	19	21	22
Oats headed	86	74	83	81
Barley headed	60	39	51	52
Rice headed	26	19	24	22
Peanuts pegging	51	38	53	51

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	VP	P	F	G	E
Corn
This Week	2	6	25	53	14
Prev Week	2	6	25	53	14
Prev Year	1	4	21	57	17
DTN 5-Yr Avg	5	10	26	46	13
Soybeans
This Week	2	6	28	53	11
Prev Week	2	6	27	55	10
Prev Year	2	5	27	54	12
DTN 5-Yr Avg	4	10	28	47	11
Spring Wheat
This Week	1	6	36	52	5
Prev Week	1	6	34	55	4
Prev Year	3	12	35	45	5
DTN 5-Yr Avg	8	16	29	40	7
Winter Wheat
This Week	20	27	27	22	4
Prev Week	21	26	27	22	4
Prev Year	6	12	34	41	7
DTN 5-Yr Avg	14	18	31	32	6
Rice
This Week	1	3	22	54	20
Prev Week	1	3	22	56	18
Prev Year	1	2	23	52	22
DTN 5-Yr Avg	1	3	22	58	17
Oats
This Week	7	12	28	45	8
Prev Week	8	13	27	45	7
Prev Year	6	9	25	51	9
DTN 5-Yr Avg	7	9	30	48	6
Barley
This Week	1	7	40	49	3
Prev Week	1	7	40	49	3
Prev Year	1	14	43	40	2
DTN 5-Yr Avg	1	7	39	48	4
Peanuts
This Week	1	6	34	54	5
Prev Week	2	6	30	56	6
Prev Year	0	3	22	64	11
DTN 5-Yr Avg	2	8	32	51	7
Cotton
This Week	5	11	38	39	7
Prev Week	4	12	36	41	7
Prev Year	6	11	31	45	7
DTN 5-Yr Avg	12	17	30	34	6

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (7/6)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 48 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2104266 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF