July Agriculture Prices Received Index Down 2.1 Percent , Prices Paid Up 0.1 Percent

July Prices Received Index Down 2.1 Percent   

The July Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 124.7, decreased 2.1 percent from June  and 7.0 percent from July 2022. At 118.7, the Crop Production Index was down 1.2 percent from last month  and 4.9 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 132.4, decreased 2.0 percent from June,  and 9.4 percent from July last year. Producers received lower prices during July for broilers, corn, milk, and hay, but higher prices for hogs, lettuce, soybeans, and strawberries. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In July, there was decreased marketing of cattle, milk, broilers, and hogs, but increased monthly movement for wheat, grapes, hay, and cotton.   

July Prices Paid Index Up 0.1 Percent   

The July Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.7, is  up 0.1 percent from June 2023, but unchanged from July 2022. Higher prices in July for feeder cattle, concentrates, diesel, and LP gas more than offset lower prices for hay & forages, feed grains, nitrogen, and complete feeds. 

This Week's Drought Summary (8/31)

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw continued intensification of drought across areas of the Midwest, South, Southwest, and the Pacific Northwest. In the Midwest, extreme heat impacted areas of the region including Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Illinois with temperatures soaring 6 to 10+ degrees F above normal. Daily high temperature records were broken across the region during the past week including in Chicago (98), Milwaukee (101), Minneapolis (101), and Des Moines (100). Similarly, areas of the South including the northern Gulf Coast of Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi saw continued drought-related deterioration on this week’s map as the heatwave continued to push high temperatures over 100 degrees F with numerous records broken during the past week. Record daily highs were set or tied in various southern cities including Houston (109), San Antonio (104), Austin (107), Dallas (109), Baton Rouge (106), New Orleans (103), Jackson (106), and Mobile (101). In Louisiana and southern Mississippi, the continued hot and dry conditions have led to numerous wildfire outbreaks as well as widespread poor hydrologic conditions and severe impacts within the agricultural sector. In the Southwest, monsoon precipitation has been well below normal across much of the region with areas of southern Arizona and New Mexico reporting rainfall deficits ranging from 3 to 6 inches since the beginning of July. In the Pacific Northwest, areas of drought expanded on the map in Oregon, Washington, and Montana in response to a combination of above-normal temperatures over the past 90-day period, precipitation shortfalls, and poor surface water conditions. Conversely, some areas saw improved drought-related conditions on the map, including southern Texas where heavy rains, in association with Tropical Storm Harold last week, provided much-needed moisture to the region. Rainfall accumulations along the southern Gulf Coast and South Texas Plains regions ranged from 2 to 6 inches. In the Southeast, areas of Florida braced themselves for the impacts of Hurricane Idalia as it intensified rapidly early this week. The hurricane made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida early Wednesday morning (8/30) as a dangerous Category3 hurricane bringing a life-threatening storm surge, catastrophic winds, and severe flooding.

Northeast

For the week, some minor degradations were made on the map including in southern New Jersey and West Virginia where areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) expanded in response to rainfall deficits (ranging from 1 to 3 inches) during the past 30-day period. Moreover, streamflow levels on numerous creeks and rivers in southern New Jersey dipped below the 10th percentile, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). In West Virginia, small areas of Moderate Drought (D1) were added in response to below-normal streamflow levels, low soil moisture, and short-term precipitation deficits over the past 30-day period. Conversely, some minor improvements were made for a second consecutive week to areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in western Pennsylvania and western New York where recent precipitation has helped to boost soil moisture levels as well as streamflows. For the week, average temperatures ranged from 1 to 4 degrees F below normal across the northern two-thirds of the region, while areas in the southern extent including areas of southern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and West Virginia were 2 to 4 degrees above normal. In terms of precipitation for the week, much of the region saw light precipitation accumulations (<1.5 inches), while areas of locally heavy precipitation (2 to 6 inches) were observed in West Virginia.

Southeast

During the past week, light to moderate rainfall accumulations (ranging from 1 to 5 inches) were observed across areas of the region, with the highest accumulations observed in isolated areas of southern Virginia and North Carolina. On the map, areas of Moderate Drought (D1) expanded in northern Virginia, North Carolina, and southern Alabama to reflect short-term precipitation deficits (past 60-days) and declining streamflow levels. In Florida, drought-affected areas remained status quo for the week; however, the abundant rainfall associated with Hurricane Idalia is expected to help ameliorate drought in some areas of the state. Average temperatures across the region were above normal (1 to 8 degrees F), with the greatest departures observed in areas of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

South

In the South, the heatwave continued across the region during the past week with record-breaking temperatures observed across the eastern half of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. On the map, areas of Extreme Drought (D3) and Exceptional Drought (D4) expanded along the northern Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana as well as areas of Severe Drought (D2) and Extreme Drought (D3) in southern Mississippi. According to the latest U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) Weekly Weather and Crop Progress Bulletin (8/29), the percentage of topsoil in Texas rated short to very short was 92%, while neighboring Louisiana was rated 88% short to very short. In addition, Water Data for Texas was reporting (8/30) reservoirs in the Edwards Plateau Climate Division were 35.9% full, while the South-Central Climate Division reservoirs were 44.2% full. In terms of drought-related impacts, the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) were reporting hundreds of impact reports from across Louisiana and Mississippi during the past 30 days. For the week, average temperatures across the region were well above normal across most of the region with temperature departures ranging from 2 to 10+ degrees F above normal. In terms of precipitation, the region was generally very dry except for some isolated areas of light to moderate accumulations observed in areas of Texas (East Texas, Trans-Pecos), Louisiana, and southern Mississippi. In South Texas, some locally heavy rainfall was observed in association with Tropical Storm Harold making landfall and providing beneficial rainfall to drought-affected areas.

Midwest

For the week, light precipitation accumulations (<2 inches) were observed across areas of Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. On the map, some degradations were made in areas of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois where both short- and long-term precipitation deficits persist. According to the latest USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Progress Bulletin (8/29), the percentage of topsoil rated short to very short is as follows: Iowa 68%, Minnesota 60%, Wisconsin 48%, and Illinois 43%. Furthermore, the latest USDA Iowa Crop Progress and Condition report (8/28) noted that the persistent dry conditions have put stress on crops, especially soybeans, with numerous reports of disease entering fields. Average temperatures for the week were well above normal (2 to 10+ degrees F) across much of the region with the greatest anomalies observed across areas of southern Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwestern Wisconsin.

High Plains

On this week’s map, degradations were made in northern portions of North Dakota and in eastern Kansas. Conversely, recent precipitation during the past 30-60-day period led to some minor improvements on the map in drought-affected areas of southeastern Nebraska. Across most of the Plains, hot and dry conditions prevailed this week except for some isolated shower activity along the Kansas-Nebraska border region where 1 to 3 inches were observed. Average temperatures for the week were well above normal (2 to 8 degrees F) with the greatest departures observed in northwestern North Dakota and eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

West

On the map, degradations were made across areas of the Southwest and Pacific Northwest including New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and Montana. In the Pacific Northwest, an area of Extreme Drought (D3) was added in the North Cascades where precipitation has been below normal both in the short and long term. Moreover, 7-day average streamflows on numerous creeks and rivers were below the 10th percentile and numerous other drought indices were supporting deterioration in the Cascades as well as other areas in the state. Likewise, poor soil moisture and low streamflow levels led to expansion of Extreme Drought (D3) in northwestern Montana. In New Mexico, the combination of short- and long-term precipitation deficits, poor soil moisture, and impacts in the agricultural sector (eastern New Mexico) led to continued deterioration on the map across parts of the state. For the week, some light precipitation accumulations (generally < 1 inch) were observed in isolated areas of the Four Corners states and Intermountain West.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, improving conditions over the past 30-day period led to removal of Severe Drought (D2) in the northwestern part of the island.

Dry conditions returned to the U.S. Virgin Islands this week. The satellite data (i.e., National Weather Service’s seven-day quantitative precipitation estimates) and station observations show that the rainfall amount varied across the islands, with rainfall totals ranging from 0.00 to 1.00 inch. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps showed that conditions remain dry at St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix this week.

Specifically, St. John (Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach) reported 0.89 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on August 29 was 19.43 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (about 12 ft) since November 25, when it was 7.54 ft below land surface. This week’s 6-month and 9-month SPI also confirms dry conditions persist on the island, so St. John remained in short- and long-term moderate drought (D1-SL) this week.

St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen AP) had no reported rainfall this week. The depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on August 29 was 33.63 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (more than 8 ft) since November 25, when it was 25.04 ft below land surface. This week’s SPI values at all timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, 9- & 12-month) also confirms dry conditions persist on the island. St. Croix remained in short- and long-term extreme drought (D3-SL) this week.

St. Thomas (Cyril E. King Airport) received 0.34 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on August 29 was 10.13 ft below land surface. This is about 6 ft above the monthly minimum of 16.65 ft set on August 6th. Weekly SPI at most timescales (1-, 6-, 9- & 12-month) also confirms dry conditions persist on the island, so St. Thomas remained in short- and long-term extreme drought (D3-SL) this week.

Pacific

In Alaska, recent rains and improving conditions led to removal of the remaining area of Moderate Drought (D1) in the eastern Interior as well as trimming back of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0).

In the Hawaiian Islands, moderate trade winds brought some shower activity to the windward slope and temperatures were seasonally warm. On the map, areas of Moderate Drought (D1) were expanded on the Big Island in response to reports of stock pond levels dropping and water hauling for personal use by individuals on catchment systems. Additionally, the Severe Drought (D2) was expanded based on data from satellite-based vegetation health indices.

Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures continued on American Samoa this week. Only 0.63 inch of rain fell at Pago Pago with average temperatures about 2°F above normal during the month of August, setting several daily high temperature records during the month. For these reasons, conditions on American Samoa have degraded to short-term moderate drought this week.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, with reported rainfall totals of 1.47 inches at Palau Airport and 1.10 inches at Koror.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Saipan reported 5.07 inches of precipitation this week, while Rota and Guam totaled 2.92 and 2.49 inches, respectively.

Wet weather continued across much of Micronesia. Pohnpei had a weekly rainfall amount of 7.54 inches, while Yap, Ulithi and Kosrae reported rainfall totals of 7.26, 5.17 and 3.12 inches, respectively. These locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Wet conditions were also observed on Fananu, at 4.84 inches, and Pingelap, at 2.32 inches, of rainfall this week, but both locations remained in short-term abnormal dryness due to previous dry weeks and months.

Drier conditions were observed on Nukuoro, Chuuk, Kapingamarangi, Lukunoch and Woleai reporting 1.85, 1.65, 0.85, 0.76 and 0.20 inches of rainfall this week, respectively. These locations were below the weekly threshold but remained drought free due to previous weeks and/or months being wet.

Rainfall varied across much of the Marshall Islands this week. A weekly rainfall total of 4.73 inches fell on Majuro, while Jaluit and Mili each received rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches (2.66 and 3.92 inches) and remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Wet conditions were also observed on Kwajalein with 2.67 inches of rainfall this week but remained in short-term abnormal dryness due to previous dry weeks and months.

Only 0.41 inch of precipitation fell at Wotje as short-term abnormal dryness remains on the island this week. Dryness continues on Ailinglapalap with 0.40 inch of rainfall, marking the third consecutive week of below-normal precipitation. Therefore, Ailinglapalap was degraded to short-term abnormal dryness this week. No depiction was made for Utirik due to missing data.

Looking Ahead

The NWS WPC 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for heavy precipitation accumulations ranging from 4 to 10+ inches in association with impacts of Hurricane Idalia, which is forecast to bring very heavy rains across the Big Bend region of Florida as well as across areas of the Coastal Plain of Georgia and the Carolinas. In the Northeast, dry conditions are expected, while most of the South, Midwest, and the Plains states are forecasted to experience generally dry conditions. In the West, some light to moderate accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches are expected across portions of Arizona, Utah, and in isolated areas of the central and northern Rockies. The CPC 6-10 Day Outlooks call for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across much of the conterminous U.S. in an area extending from the Rocky Mountains to the Eastern Seaboard, while near-normal temperatures are expected over the remainder of the West except in Washington state where temperatures are forecasted to be below normal. In terms of precipitation, below-normal precipitation is expected across much of the southern tier of the conterminous U.S. as well as portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Great Basin, and Intermountain West. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is forecasted for areas of the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains, and the Pacific Northwest.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (8/29)

 

USDA Crop Progress Report - Despite Heat Wave, US Corn, Soybean Conditions Drop Just Slightly in Week Ended Aug. 27

OMAHA (DTN) -- Despite the extreme heat that blasted much of the Corn Belt last week, national corn and soybean condition ratings declined just slightly, USDA-NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

Though the region will get a temporary break from the heat this week, crops won't get much relief from the dryness, according to DTN forecasts.

CORN

-- Crop progress: Corn in the dough stage as of Sunday, Aug. 27, was estimated at 88%, 4 percentage points ahead of last year's 84% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 86%. Corn dented was pegged at 51%, 7 points ahead of last year's 44% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 49%. Corn mature was 9%, 2 points ahead of last year's 7% and 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 8%.

-- Crop condition: Nationally, corn was rated 56% good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from 58% the previous week but still slightly above 54% a year ago at this time. "The good-to-excellent rating rose 3 points to 67% in Illinois, while Iowa's rating fell 6 points to 54%. Meanwhile, Kansas' corn crop is the worst rated, at just 35% good to excellent," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop progress: Soybeans setting pods were pegged at 91%, 1 percentage point ahead of both last year and the five-year average of 90%. Soybeans dropping leaves was estimated at 5%, 1 point ahead of last year's 4% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 6%.

-- Crop condition: Soybeans were rated 58% good to excellent as of Sunday, down 1 point from 59% the previous week and still slightly above 57% a year ago at this time. "The good-to-excellent rating for Illinois' soybeans rose 3 points to 68% and declined 6 points in Iowa to 53% good to excellent. Kansas and Michigan are the worst rated," Mantini said.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest continued at a steady pace last week, moving ahead by another 15 percentage points to reach 54% completed as of Sunday. That was 9 percentage points behind the five-year average of 63%. "South Dakota leads the pack at 91% harvested. North Dakota, at just 38% done, is 18 points behind average," Mantini said.

-- Crop condition: USDA said 37% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of Aug. 27, down 1 percentage point from last week's 38% and well below 68% a year ago. "Washington is the worst-rated state at 25% good to excellent and 37% very poor to poor," Mantini said.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

The Corn Belt will get a temporary reprieve from the heat -- but not from the dryness -- this week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"It's a milder stretch for most of this week, coming off of last week's heat wave," Baranick said. "Crops will get a chance to take a breather, but most of the Corn Belt is still going without meaningful rain over the last week. Some areas in the southwestern Corn Belt got some good rainfall as a front passed through over the weekend and squashed the heat. Along the Nebraska-Kansas border through Missouri and southern Illinois into the Tennessee Valley saw some areas get over 2 inches, but most areas were left dry as it passed through.

"That front has settled down into the Southeast and if not for Tropical Storm Idalia, which is expected to become a strong hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, would have already passed through. That front will give southern areas a day or two of scattered showers. Idalia is forecast to move into the Big Bend of Florida early Wednesday, then quickly move into the Atlantic. Heavy rain is expected for some limited areas but may prove damaging for cotton farmers in southern Georgia or some of the specialty crops there and in South Carolina. Heavy rain may also impact eastern North Carolina, which could be devastating for those with maturing corn and soybeans that aren't able to harvest just yet. But overall, this will be a localized event instead of anything widespread.

"The milder temperatures farther north will be temporary, though. We'll see a ridge in the west shifting eastward and taking its spot back in the Central U.S. from what it got pushed out of this weekend. Temperatures will soar over the holiday weekend, and we could be in for another rough hot streak next week. It may not be widespread triple digits, but for those with limited soil moisture, which is most areas, it certainly won't be helpful. Like last week, it will be with limited rainfall with the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies the most likely locations to see anything meaningful. Should it occur that way, we could see disruptions to the wheat and canola harvests."

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (8/28)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 54 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1864099 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (8/24)

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw drought-related improvements on the map across southern portions of California and Nevada in association with the impacts of Tropical Storm Hilary, which made landfall in Southern California over the weekend and into Monday. The tropical storm, the first to make landfall in Southern California since 1939, brought record-breaking rainfall accumulations leading to widespread life-threatening flash flooding, mud and rockslides, and debris flows to parts of the region. Rainfall totals for the event ranged from 2 to 12 inches with the heaviest accumulations observed in higher elevations including the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Ranges, southern Sierra Nevada, Panamint Range in Death Valley National Park, and in the Spring Mountains near Las Vegas. In terms of the urban areas, the Los Angeles Basin received totals ranging from 2 to 5 inches, while the greater San Diego area received 1 to 3 inches and Palm Springs 2 to 4 inches. The rainfall led to removal of lingering areas of drought across the Mojave Desert and southern Nevada. In the Southwest, conditions in New Mexico saw statewide degradation on the map in response to a combination of both short- and long-term dryness across the state, including a weak monsoon season with 60-day rainfall deficits ranging from 2 to 6-inches. In the South, drought-related conditions have deteriorated rapidly during the past month across areas of Texas and Louisiana where persistent heat and rainfall shortfalls have led to drought expansion and intensification on the map this week. During the past two weeks, average maximum temperatures were 6 to 10+ degrees F above normal across Texas, southern Oklahoma, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi with reports of impacts related to human health as well as severe impacts to agriculture, vegetation health, and surface water conditions. Looking at the latest climatological data released by NOAA NCEI (through July 2023), Louisiana Climate Division 7 (Southwest Louisiana) observed its warmest May-July period on record, while Texas Climate Division 8 (Upper Coast) experienced its warmest June-July period on record. In the Midwest, continued areas of dryness led to degradations in portions of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. In the Eastern Tier, some minor deterioration in drought-related conditions occurred in areas of the Carolinas as well as in the Panhandle of Florida.

Northeast

For the week, only minor degradations were made on the map including in West Virginia where an area of Moderate Drought (D1) was introduced as well as expansion of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in response to short-term (past 30-day period) rainfall deficits (ranging from 1 to 3 inches) and numerous observed low streamflow levels (<20th percentile). Elsewhere, minor improvements were made to areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in western Pennsylvania and western New York where precipitation has been slightly above normal during the past 60-day period. For the week, average temperatures ranged from 1 to 5 degrees F below normal across most of the region except for areas of Maine which experienced temperatures 1 to 5+ degrees F above normal. In terms of precipitation for the week, the region was somewhat dry except for some light precipitation accumulations (<1.5 inches) across parts of New England as well as an isolated area in Upstate New York which received some heavier accumulations (2 to 4 inches).

Southeast

During the past week, light to moderate rainfall accumulations (ranging from 1 to 4 inches) were observed across areas of the region with the highest accumulations observed in isolated coastal areas of the Carolinas and in west-central and southern Florida. This week’s rainfall led to minor improvements on the map in areas of North Carolina and Florida, while conditions deteriorated on the map in inland areas of the Carolinas as well as in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. In the Florida Panhandle, areas of Moderate Drought (D1) were introduced to reflect short-term precipitation deficits (past 60-days) and declining streamflow levels. Average temperatures across the region were above normal (1 to 6 degrees F), with the greatest departures observed in eastern portions of North Carolina, while cooler than normal temperatures prevailed in northern portions of Alabama and Georgia (1 to 5 degrees F).

South

In the South, drought-related conditions continued to deteriorate as the hot and dry pattern continued across most of the region. Many impact reports came in this week emphasizing the rate at which the impact of the persistent heat is taking its toll. In both Louisiana and areas of Texas, numerous impacts are being observed including declining soil moisture, poor vegetation health, impacts within the agricultural sector, and poor surface and groundwater conditions. The combination of these factors led to expansive deterioration on the map in areas of Texas, Louisiana, and southern Oklahoma including expansion of areas of Extreme Drought (D3) and the introduction of Exceptional Drought (D4). For the week, average temperatures across the region were above normal with Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas observing temperatures ranging from 4 to 10+ degrees F above normal. Conversely, temperatures were near to slightly below normal across northern portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee. In terms of precipitation, the region was very dry except for some isolated areas of South Texas and southeastern Louisiana which received light accumulations.

Midwest

For the week, light precipitation accumulations (<2 inches) were observed across areas of northern Wisconsin, Upper Peninsula Michigan, and northern Michigan. On the map, degradations were made in areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois where both short- and long-term precipitation deficits persist. Conversely, rainfall during the past 30-60-day period and improving soil moisture and surface water conditions led to removal of areas of Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) in Michigan. Average temperatures for the week were below normal (1 to 3 degrees F) across much of the region except for areas of southern Missouri, southern Illinois, and central Wisconsin where temperatures were a few degrees above normal.

High Plains

On this week’s map, no changes were made across the Plains states while some minor improvements were made in northwestern Wyoming and some degradations in south-central Colorado. Across the Plains, hot and dry conditions prevailed across much of the region this week with well-above normal temperatures (2 to 8 degrees F) observed, except for areas of the Dakotas where temperatures were a few degrees below normal. In terms of the overall drought situation, the past 60-day period has been marked with some improvements in response to above-normal precipitation across areas of Kansas and Nebraska. However, the longer-term dry signal has remained intact across areas of the region and continues to be reflected in various drought indicators including soil moisture and streamflow levels.

West

On the map, widespread improvements were made in drought-affected areas of southern California and Nevada in response to heavy rainfall accumulations associated with Tropical Storm Hilary and its remnant moisture that pushed northward across the Mojave Desert, Great Basin, and into the Pacific Northwest. The severe weather event helped to eliminate areas of lingering drought on the map across the Mojave Desert and in areas of southern Nevada. Likewise, conditions improved on the map in west-central Idaho and northeastern Oregon in response to this week’s rainfall. Conversely, continued dryness and below-normal streamflow activity led to an introduction of Extreme Drought (D3) in the Northern Rockies around Glacier National Park where streamflows on the North Fork of the Flathead River at Columbia Falls, Montana were in the 4th percentile. In north-central Montana, areas of Severe Drought (D2) expanded on the map due to a combination of factors including dry soils and below-normal precipitation during the past 60-day period. In the Four Corners states, the poor monsoon season and related precipitation shortfalls led to introduction of areas of Moderate Drought (D1) in southern and central Arizona as well as in south-central Colorado in the San Luis Valley. In New Mexico, the combination of short- and long-term precipitation deficits, poor soil moisture, and rangeland conditions led to widespread deterioration on the map across much of the state.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, areas of Severe Drought (D2) and Moderate Drought (D1) were trimmed back on the map in response to heavy rainfall in association with moisture from Tropical Storm Franklin.

Precipitation varied across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands this week. The satellite data (i.e., National Weather Service’s seven-day quantitative precipitation estimates) and station observations show that the rainfall amount varied across the islands, with rainfall totals ranging from 0.50 to 2.72 inches. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps showed that conditions remain dry at St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix this week.

Specifically, St. John (Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach) reported 0.82 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on August 22 was 19.54 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (about 12 ft) since November 25, when it was 7.54 ft below land surface. This week’s 6-month and 9-month SPI also confirms dry conditions persist on the island, so St. John remained in short- and long-term moderate drought (D1-SL) this week.

St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen AP) reported 1.53 inches of rain this week. The depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on August 22 was 33.03 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (more than 8 ft) since November 25, when it was 25.04 ft below land surface. This week’s 6-month, 9-month and 12-month SPI also confirms dry conditions persist on the island, so St. Croix remained in short- and long-term extreme drought (D3-SL) this week.

St. Thomas (Cyril E. King Airport) received 0.55 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on August 22 was 8.96 ft below land surface. This is an increase of 7.69 feet since August 6th. SPI at all available timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, 9- & 12-month) also confirms dry conditions persist on the island, so St. Thomas remained in short- and long-term extreme drought (D3-SL) this week.

Pacific

In Alaska, improving conditions led to removal of Moderate Drought (D1) in the Central Interior, while D1 expanded slightly in the western Yukon Flats. Moreover, rainfall observed last week led to trimming back of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in the Tanana-Yukon Uplands.

For the Hawaiian Islands, drought-related conditions deteriorated on the map in areas of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai in response to short-term rainfall deficits, low streamflows, and stressed vegetation. Elsewhere, the Big Island remained status quo for the week after receiving beneficial rainfall in association with remnant moisture from Hurricane Fernanda, which passed to the south of the Big Island on Monday bringing 2- to 4-inch accumulations to the windward side of the island. Similarly, 1- to 2-inch accumulations were observed in East Maui; however, other areas of the island continued to experience rainfall deficits leading to expansion of areas of Severe Drought (D2).

Dry conditions continued on American Samoa this week, with weekly rainfall amounts of 0.36 inch at Pago Pago, 0.26 inch at Siufaga Ridge and 0.22 inch at Toa Ridge. American Samoa remained in short-term abnormal dryness this week.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, with reported rainfall totals of 4.12 inches at Palau Airport and 3.90 inches at Koror.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Rota reported 4.16 inches of precipitation this week, while Guam and Saipan totaled 1.88 and 0.88 inches, respectively.

Wet weather continued across much of Micronesia. Nukuoro had a weekly rainfall amount of 4.19 inches, while Ulithi, Kosrae, Chuuk, Lukunoch, Woleai and Pohnpei reported rainfall totals of 3.64, 3.13, 2.94, 2.92, 2.76 and 2.16 inches, respectively. These locations remained drought free this week. Wet conditions were also observed on Fananu with 2.06 inches of rain this week but remained in short-term abnormal dryness due to previous dry weeks and months. Drier conditions were observed on Kapingamarangi and Yap, reporting 1.06 inches and 0.42 inch of rainfall this week. These locations were below the weekly threshold but remained drought free due to previous weeks and/or months being wet. Only 0.93 inch of rain has fallen on Pingelap this week, marking the third consecutive week below the weekly threshold. Therefore, Pingelap was degraded to short-term abnormal dryness.

Rainfall varied across much of the Marshall Islands this week. A weekly rainfall total of 3.34 inches fell on Majuro, while Jaluit and Mili each received rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches (2.64 and 2.83 inches) and remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Dryness continues on Ailinglapalap with 1.65 inches of rainfall, marking the second consecutive week of below-normal precipitation. However, Ailinglapalap remains free of drought or abnormal dryness due wetter conditions from previous weeks and months. Dry conditions continued on Kwajalein with 0.29 inch of rainfall this week, while no rainfall was reported for Wotje. Kwajalein and Wotje remain in short-term abnormal dryness this week. No depiction was made for Utirik due to missing data.

Looking Ahead

The NWS WPC 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for light-to-moderate precipitation accumulations ranging from 1 to 3+ inches across portions of the Four Corners states as well as areas of Far West Texas. Likewise, similar accumulations are expected across areas of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. In the eastern and northern portions of the Midwest, lighter accumulations (< 1 inch) are forecasted. The CPC 6-10Day Outlooks call for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across much of the conterminous U.S. including the West, South, Southeast, Plains states, and western portions of the Midwest. Conversely, below-normal temperatures are expected across the Lower Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. In terms of precipitation, below-normal precipitation is expected across the Plains states, Midwest, and far western extent of the Northeast, while above-normal precipitation is forecasted for much of the western U.S. and across much of the Eastern Seaboard.

 

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (8/22)

 

USDA Crop Progress Report - Corn Condition Falls Slightly, Soybean Condition Unchanged Week Ended Aug. 20

OMAHA (DTN) -- The return of hot, dry weather over larger portions of the central U.S. late last week halted the recent rise in corn and soybean conditions, USDA-NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday. And with record heat forecast from Texas to Minnesota to Maryland to Florida this week, crop conditions appear likely to take another hit.

CORN

-- Crop progress: Corn in the dough stage as of Sunday, Aug. 20, was estimated at 78%, 5 percentage points ahead of last year's 73% and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 77%. Corn dented was pegged at 35%, 6 points ahead of last year's 29% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 33%. Corn mature was 4%, the same as both last year and the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: Nationally, corn was rated 58% good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from 59% the previous week but still above 55% a year ago at this time. "The good-to-excellent rating remained at 64% in Illinois and rose 2 points to 60% in Iowa," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop progress: 96% of soybeans were blooming, the same as both last year and the five-year average. Soybeans setting pods were pegged at 86%, 3 percentage points ahead of last year's 83% and 2 points ahead of the average of 84%.

-- Crop condition: Soybeans were rated 59% good to excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week and still slightly above 57% a year ago at this time. "The good-to-excellent rating for Illinois fell 5 points to 65% and rose 1 point in Iowa to 59%," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: The nation's winter wheat harvest continued to inch toward completion last week, reaching 96% as of Sunday, 2 points ahead of last year's 94% but equal to the five-year average. "The bulk of remaining work to be done is in Idaho (70% harvested), Montana (78% harvested) and Washington (87% harvested)," said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest continued at a steady pace last week, moving ahead 15 percentage points to reach 39% completed as of Sunday. That was 7 percentage points behind the five-year average of 46%. "South Dakota leads the pack at 75% harvested, while North Dakota lags at 24% harvested and is down from its five-year average of 38% for this time of year," Hultman noted.

-- Crop condition: USDA said 38% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of Aug. 20, down 4 percentage points from last week's 42% and still well below 64% a year ago.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Much of the country will bake under intense heat this week, which will likely add stress to maturing crops, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Well, it's no surprise: It's a hot week," Baranick said. "Lots of record highs are forecast from Texas to Minnesota to Maryland to Florida, so it's going to be a stressful week. A front across the far north is going to keep a lid on the temperatures for those areas and up into Canada, with it waffling around a bit this week. Some rainfall will also be possible at times, but much of it will be north of the border. That front will eventually come south late week and weekend. We'll get a good 10- to 20-degree drop in temperatures, which will help with the stress, but the forecast rainfall isn't much and not widespread like we'd expect."

"The Western states certainly got hit with a major event as Hurricane Hilary and its remnants brought flooding rain to the Southwest. The remnants to that storm will move up through the Pacific Northwest and into the Canadian Prairies early this week, then move across Canada and the Northeast, and be part of the reason that the cold front will move south later this week and weekend. The rains that the system is bringing to the Northwest and Montana may negatively affect the wheat harvest.

"Another tropical feature, what may become Tropical Storm Harold or Idalia, is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. It won't last long, reaching the far southern Texas or northern Mexican coast on Tuesday but could find itself in the central Rockies at the time the cold front is sagging south through the Corn Belt. If things line up, we could see the remnant low work across that front and bring some better rainfall, but that is highly speculative at this point. More than likely, the front will only have spotty showers, unhelpful after a week-long heat burst that is likely to have caused yield loss for both corn and soybeans."

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (8/21)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 57 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1733430 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (8/17)

Conditions continued from last week with the southern part of the country, where above-normal temperatures and mostly dry weather across the Rio Grande Valley, Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley saw drought conditions continue to deteriorate. Drought intensified across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, particularly in eastern Texas, Louisiana and south-central Mississippi. The Monsoon remains suppressed with increasing short-term drought across Arizona, New Mexico and southwest Colorado. Frequent rounds of heavy rainfall occurred from the Northeast into the central Mississippi valley, into southern Missouri and the upper Midwest. The continuing west conditions are improving drought across parts of the Corn Belt and much of the southern and central Midwest. Farther to the north, drought continues to intensify across northern Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana and Washington. Hawai’i continued to experience dry conditions, particularly on the leeward side of the islands. Conditions that came to a peak on August 8th with deadly Lahaina Fire on Maui.

Northeast

Rainfall continued across the Northeast, alleviating abnormally dry and drought conditions by increasing streamflows and soil moisture and replenishing groundwater deficits. The heaviest precipitation fell from Long Island westward across Pennsylvania and south into parts of Maryland and northern West Virginia. The remaining D1 on Long Island was improved to D0 (abnormally dry conditions). Preexisting D0 was removed, including areas in southern New York, primarily around New York City. Additional improvements occurred from western New York into northwestern Pennsylvania and from central and southern Pennsylvania south into Maryland. Slight D0 expansion occurred in Livingston County, New York, and parts of Maryland.

Southeast

Western North Carolina saw two or more inches of precipitation in the past week, while dryness continued in eastern North Carolina. Abnormally dry conditions have expanded to encompass most of the eastern and south-central portions of the state, with D1 conditions introduced in the southeast. Indicators supporting these depictions include 30-day precipitation, low streamflows and dry soil moisture. These conditions reflect the rapid declines being reported due to recent hot temperatures and dry weather. Agricultural reports from Pamlico, Craven and Jones counties also depict extremely dry conditions, with crops wilting and low top- and sub-soil moisture levels.

South Carolina also saw an increase in D0 conditions. The north-central part of the state saw D0 extend from North Carolina to the South Carolina border southward toward Williamsburg. While recent conditions have been near normal, longer-term precipitation patterns show moisture deficits, with rainfall totals over the last 60 days at 75 to 90% of normal for this time of year. The last 1-inch rain event occurred on July 5, with an additional .4 inches – the last good soaking rain - occurring on Aug. 3. D0 also expanded in Lexington County and York to Chesterfield counties toward Sumter and Florence counties due to low streamflows.

Northern central and western Georgia experienced upwards of two inches of precipitation this week, resulting in removal of D0 n areas of central Georgia. Far southwestern Georgia, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, saw new and expanding D0 conditions from below-normal precipitation and continuing high summer heat. While most of the Florida peninsula received precipitation, west-central Florida continues to remain relatively dry with high temperatures, averaging 3 – 5 degrees above normal over the past 30 days. The Little Manatee and Myakka rivers saw record low streamflows for this time of year, with other rivers experiencing about 10% of historic flows, showing that drought is extending inland. Tampa, Sarasota, Venice and Naples are experiencing the driest year to date in terms of rainfall.

South

Much of the South, from Texas to Mississippi, saw temperatures of 4 to 6 degrees above normal for the past two weeks. While northeastern Mississippi, Tennessee, northern Arkansas, and northeast Oklahoma, much of the rest of the south missed out. Northern Oklahoma and Arkansas benefited from this above-normal precipitation, allowing for the removal of D0 conditions. Meanwhile, D0 expanded in eastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi due to continued dryness over the last 30 days, combined with extreme temperatures. A widespread expansion of dry conditions occurred from southern Mississippi into east-central Texas due to a continued lack of rainfall (about 8 – 14 inches over the last 90 days) combined with above normal temperatures. For example, rainfall in Southern Mississippi is well below normal for the year, with Crystal Springs only seeing 2.99 inches of rain for July and August. At the same time high temperatures of over 95 degrees have been recorded over 26 days — with 14 of those days over 100 degrees. Nearly all counties in southeastern and south-central Mississippi are in a burn ban, a commonality seen across the rest of the South. Many livestock producers are having to feed hay and have begun selling their livestock, leading to record cattle sales in various communities. Conditions from western Louisiana into eastern Texas continued to deteriorate, with D3 (extreme drought) expanding from the Louisiana boot heel into Houston, down to Corpus Christi. In Shelby County, Texas, little to no rain has fallen in the last 30 days, which has been accompanied by weeks of triple-digit heat. Agriculture across the southern Gulf Coast has seen enormous impacts due to this lack of precipitation and extreme heat. Eastern and central Texas also had extensive degradations with expansions of D2 (severe drought) through D4 (exceptional drought). Presently, Austin's precipitation from June 1 to August 15 ranks as the fourth driest on record. Belton and Stillhouse Hollow reservoirs are also the driest on record for this time of year. Near Midland, Texas, conditions have been compared to the record-breaking drought of 2011. To the far West, parts of the Big Bend region have received 600% of normal weekly rainfall in the last week, resulting in improvement from D1 to D0. The Edwards Plateau saw some rainfall, but it was not enough to improve the long-term regional dryness. Soil moisture and streamflows through the region continue to decline. Southern Oklahoma also felt the effects of low precipitation and high temperatures, resulting in widespread expansion of D0 and degradation of areas of D0 into D1.

Midwest

Widespread improvements were seen throughout the Midwest due to precipitation and at- or below-normal temperatures. Ohio, Indiana and Illinois saw continuing improvement, with D1 removal from Ohio and Indiana. Much of Illinois, except for the northern region, and all of Missouri also saw continued improvements, with improving streamflow and soil moisture. Large parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota saw heavy precipitation. Southeastern Wisconsin and central Minnesota saw areas of 2 to nearly 5 inches of rain, aiding short-term dry conditions. Northwest Wisconsin had slight expansion of D3 and D4 along Lake Superior.

High Plains

Eastern parts of the High Plains saw the benefits of this week’s precipitation along with below-normal temperatures. Kansas saw heavy precipitation continue from last week, bringing further improvements to the east and central regions. Areas near Kansas City saw upwards of 3 inches of precipitation, while the southeast areas received 4 to 7 inches of rain, carrying over improvements seen in Oklahoma. Some improvements occurred along parts of the Nebraska-South Dakota border. Both southeast and northeast South Dakota saw improvement from heavy rainfall and improving soil moisture. This improvement bled over in southeast North Dakota, where areas of D0 were removed due to heavy precipitation. Little precipitation was received further north. Continual soil moisture and streamflow impacts led to D1 and D2 expansions. Southeastern Colorado received spotty precipitation, adding to the already-degrading conditions and resulting in expansion of D1 and D0.

West

Much of the continental West remained status quo, with small improvements in central Utah and near Yellowstone National Park into Butte, Montana. Areas in The Helena-Lewis and Clak National Forest and in the east near Fort Peck Indian Reservation also saw improvements with the removal of D0 conditions. Northwestern Washington state saw continued above-normal temperatures, as high as 8 degrees above normal, and little measurable precipitation, resulting in slight expansion of D0-D2 from the Okanoga-Wenatchee National Forest to Puget Sound. The dry conditions experienced in Texas continued into New Mexico. Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in the eastern part of the state has led to further degradations, with the expansion of D1 near De Baca, Chaves and Lincoln counties. New Mexico has been on water restrictions for several months, with lake levels falling further below average.

Caribbean

No changes were made to the map in Puerto Rico this week.

No changes were made to the U.S. Drought Monitor depiction in the U.S. Virgin Islands this week, as mostly drier weather and hot temperatures continued. Short- and long-term extreme drought continued on St. Croix, where reported rainfall totals ranged from 0.09 inches to 0.59 inches. Groundwater levels decreased slightly this week as well on St. Croix. On St. Thomas, rain totals were generally one-quarter to one-half inch. Groundwater levels have appeared to recover slightly in the last few days, though with paltry rainfall and hot temperatures, short- and long-term extreme drought continued there as well. On St. John, rain totals ranged from 0.46 to 0.9 inches. Groundwater levels decreased slightly, and short- and long-term moderate drought continued there.

Pacific

The western Interior of Alaska saw the expansion of D1 conditions from low precipitation. Enough rain fell in the southeast mainland and Panhandle in the past week to provide D1 and D0 removal. While conditions were unchanged in the north, the Northwest Territories are now in the fourth-largest fire season since 1980 in terms of area burned.

Hawai’i saw continued light trade wind showers, limiting the rainfall to the east and northeast-facing slopes of the islands. Leeward areas have had even less rain. Combined with the seasonal August heat and strong winds from last week, conditions have been deteriorating in many areas. Kauai, Oahu, Moloka’i, Lanai and Kaho’olawe have had little rainfall, leading to very dry conditions designated by the introduction or increase of D0-D1. Maui saw further expansion of D2 along the lower elevations, where the dry and residual winds from Hurricane Dora greatly contributed to the catastrophic wildfires experienced earlier this week. The Big Island has seen some precipitation, but not enough to improve conditions. D2 was introduced in the center of the island with D1 conditions radially expanding, along with the introduction of D0 on the leeward side of the island.

Precipitation amounts on American Samoa have been quite low again this week, ranging from 0.17 to 0.77 inches. The average temperature for August has also been running a couple degrees above normal, including several record daily high temperatures at Pago Pago, accentuating short-term dryness. Therefore, conditions there have degraded into the short-term abnormal dryness category.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, with reported rainfall totals of 1.91 inches at Koror (with two days missing) and 6.31 inches at Palau Airport.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, as Saipan, Guam, and Rota all had copious rainfall totals. Saipan ended the week with 7.25 inches of rain, up from 1.7 inches last week. Guam also had a wet week, with 6.96 inches of rain. This week’s rain totaled 7.29 inches on Rota.

Kwajalein received 2.18 inches of rain this week. While not enough to improve conditions, this prevented a degradation into moderate drought, so short-term abnormal dryness continued there. This week was much drier than the previous several weeks on Ailinglapalap, with only 1.47 inches of rainfall. However, they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Conditions remained dry in Jaluit this week, with 0.47 inches of rain. However, given that 2.87 inches of rain fell three weeks ago, conditions have not yet degraded to short-term abnormal dryness. No data were available for Utirik this week, so no U.S. Drought Monitor depiction was made there. After more than 3 inches of rain fell on Wotje last week, only 1.53 inches have fallen this week, so short-term abnormal dryness continued there. Drier weather also continued on Majuro this week, with 1.8 inches of rain, marking the second consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. However, conditions have not yet become abnormally dry. Plentiful rainfall continued this week on Mili, with 2.53 inches reported, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.

Yap remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week as rainfall amounts totaled 2.65 inches, with a couple days missing. Wet weather continued on Ulithi, where 6.5 inches of rain was reported (with a couple days missing), and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Reported rainfall on Woleai this week was lower, with a total of only 0.54 inches, though four days were missing from the analysis. However, given recent wet weather, Woleai remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Only 1.15 inches of rain have been reported on Fananu this week, continuing a recent dry stretch of weather. After a week of being marked as having missing data, Fananu’s depiction has been reverted to short-term abnormal dryness. Wet weather continued this week on Chuuk, with 3.52 inches of rain reported, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. After more than 5 inches of rain last week, Lukunor had a drier week, with 1.18 inches of rain. Given recent wet weeks, though, Lukunor remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Only 1.56 inches of rain have been reported on Nukuoro this week, down from 4.78 inches last week and a long stretch of wet weeks preceding that. Given the wet conditions before this week, no abnormal dryness or drought has developed there. July finished as a record wet month at Kapingamarangi, with 22.87 inches of rain. Since then, the last few weeks have been drier, though 3.77 inches of rain fell this week, and they remained free of abnormal dryness or drought. Wet weather continued this week in Pohnpei, with 5.51 inches of rain, and conditions remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Only 0.19 inches of rain have fallen on Pingelap this week, marking the second consecutive drier week. However, given wetter conditions before then, no abnormal dryness or drought have developed. Rain on Kosrae this week totaled 3.24 inches, marking the ninth consecutive week with at least 2 inches of rain, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.

Looking Ahead

According to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), during the next five days (Aug. 17-22, 2023), significant rainfall is expected across parts of the Southwest and California as Tropical Storm Hillary approaches the California-Mexico border. While the storm is expected to reach hurricane status, forecasts call for it to weaken before making landfall due to cooler ocean temperatures and land interactions. Rainfall totals of 2–4 inches with isolated areas over 6 inches are expected — a considerable amount of rain for the dry Southwest. Rain is also expected across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Much of the rest of the country looks to remain mostly dry, with the exception of Florida and the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a heat wave will build over the southern and central U.S. into the Midwest. Daytime highs are expected to be 10-20 degrees above normal in some places, equating to highs near 100 degrees in places such as the upper Midwest.

Moving into next week, the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid Aug. 22-26, 2023) calls for an increased probability of above-normal temperatures throughout most of the Lower 48 states and much of Alaska. The only areas where below- or near-normal temperatures are favored include the Northeast, western Alaska and parts of the Southwest. Above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the western half of the U.S., parts of the Northeast, south Texas, South Florida and much of Alaska.