USDA Crop Progress Report - Corn Condition Falls Slightly, Soybean Condition Unchanged Week Ended Aug. 20

OMAHA (DTN) -- The return of hot, dry weather over larger portions of the central U.S. late last week halted the recent rise in corn and soybean conditions, USDA-NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday. And with record heat forecast from Texas to Minnesota to Maryland to Florida this week, crop conditions appear likely to take another hit.

CORN

-- Crop progress: Corn in the dough stage as of Sunday, Aug. 20, was estimated at 78%, 5 percentage points ahead of last year's 73% and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 77%. Corn dented was pegged at 35%, 6 points ahead of last year's 29% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 33%. Corn mature was 4%, the same as both last year and the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: Nationally, corn was rated 58% good to excellent, down 1 percentage point from 59% the previous week but still above 55% a year ago at this time. "The good-to-excellent rating remained at 64% in Illinois and rose 2 points to 60% in Iowa," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop progress: 96% of soybeans were blooming, the same as both last year and the five-year average. Soybeans setting pods were pegged at 86%, 3 percentage points ahead of last year's 83% and 2 points ahead of the average of 84%.

-- Crop condition: Soybeans were rated 59% good to excellent as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week and still slightly above 57% a year ago at this time. "The good-to-excellent rating for Illinois fell 5 points to 65% and rose 1 point in Iowa to 59%," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: The nation's winter wheat harvest continued to inch toward completion last week, reaching 96% as of Sunday, 2 points ahead of last year's 94% but equal to the five-year average. "The bulk of remaining work to be done is in Idaho (70% harvested), Montana (78% harvested) and Washington (87% harvested)," said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest continued at a steady pace last week, moving ahead 15 percentage points to reach 39% completed as of Sunday. That was 7 percentage points behind the five-year average of 46%. "South Dakota leads the pack at 75% harvested, while North Dakota lags at 24% harvested and is down from its five-year average of 38% for this time of year," Hultman noted.

-- Crop condition: USDA said 38% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of Aug. 20, down 4 percentage points from last week's 42% and still well below 64% a year ago.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Much of the country will bake under intense heat this week, which will likely add stress to maturing crops, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Well, it's no surprise: It's a hot week," Baranick said. "Lots of record highs are forecast from Texas to Minnesota to Maryland to Florida, so it's going to be a stressful week. A front across the far north is going to keep a lid on the temperatures for those areas and up into Canada, with it waffling around a bit this week. Some rainfall will also be possible at times, but much of it will be north of the border. That front will eventually come south late week and weekend. We'll get a good 10- to 20-degree drop in temperatures, which will help with the stress, but the forecast rainfall isn't much and not widespread like we'd expect."

"The Western states certainly got hit with a major event as Hurricane Hilary and its remnants brought flooding rain to the Southwest. The remnants to that storm will move up through the Pacific Northwest and into the Canadian Prairies early this week, then move across Canada and the Northeast, and be part of the reason that the cold front will move south later this week and weekend. The rains that the system is bringing to the Northwest and Montana may negatively affect the wheat harvest.

"Another tropical feature, what may become Tropical Storm Harold or Idalia, is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. It won't last long, reaching the far southern Texas or northern Mexican coast on Tuesday but could find itself in the central Rockies at the time the cold front is sagging south through the Corn Belt. If things line up, we could see the remnant low work across that front and bring some better rainfall, but that is highly speculative at this point. More than likely, the front will only have spotty showers, unhelpful after a week-long heat burst that is likely to have caused yield loss for both corn and soybeans."