January Ag Prices Received Index Down 1.4 Percent, Prices Paid Down 0.1 Percent

January Prices Received Index Down 1.4 Percent   

The January Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 111.7, decreased 1.4 percent from December and 10 percent from January 2023. At 98.2, the Crop Production Index was down 3.4 percent from last month and 17 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 135.4, increased 4.6 percent from December, but decreased 0.7 percent from January last year. Producers received lower prices during January for soybeans, milk, corn, and lemons but higher prices for broilers, market eggs, lettuce, and calves. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In January, there was decreased monthly movement for cattle, milk, grapes, and broilers and increased marketing of soybeans, corn, market eggs, and onions.    

January Prices Paid Index Down 0.1 Percent   

The January Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.4, is down 0.1 percent from December 2023 and 1.8 percent from January 2023. Lower prices in January for concentrates, nitrogen, diesel, and interest more than offset higher prices for feeder cattle, taxes, other services, and share rent. 

This Week's Drought Summary (2/29)

Several weather systems moved across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (February 21-27). Their fronts and surface lows spread rain and snow across parts of the West at the beginning and end of the week, and over the Tennessee to Ohio Valleys and Appalachians at mid-week. These systems were associated with an upper-level circulation pattern that consisted of low-pressure troughs just off the west coast and east coast, with a high-pressure ridge over the central part of the country. The ridge brought above-normal temperatures to much of the CONUS, from the Rocky Mountains to Appalachian Mountains, with weekly temperatures averaging 15-20 degrees F above normal from Texas to the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Temperatures averaged near to cooler than normal in parts of the interior West to Pacific Coast and along the Eastern Seaboard. The ridge also inhibited precipitation from the Rockies to Mississippi Valley. The precipitation in the West was mainly over mountain ranges but was not enough to improve drought conditions. The precipitation in the Midwest was enough to prevent further drought expansion or intensification where it was wetter than normal for the week. In other areas, drought or abnormal dryness expanded or intensified in parts of the Plains and Midwest, and a few parts of the Pacific Northwest, Gulf of Mexico coast, and Mid-Atlantic coast.

Northeast

Half an inch to 1.5 inches of precipitation fell this week over southwestern parts of the Northeast region, with less than a fourth of an inch the rule over northern and eastern parts. No change was made to the USDM depiction, with moderate drought continuing in only a couple spots – western New York and Nantucket Island.

Southeast

A few areas from Virginia to northern Georgia received half an inch of precipitation this week, while most of the region experienced less than a fourth of an inch. Recent dry conditions have contributed to an outbreak of wildfires across parts of the region. Widespread heavy rains from a week ago ended drought along the west coast of Florida; D1 was removed with the D0 that remains reflecting dryness that still shows up at the 9 to 12-month time scales. D0 expanded in southern Alabama and into the extreme western portions of the Florida panhandle where the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) shows dryness at 1-month to 2-year time scales, several drought indicators show drying soils, and streamflow is low. D0 expanded in North Carolina and was introduced into South Carolina, with D1 developing in eastern North Carolina, due to 1- to 3-month SPI, dry soils, and low streamflow.

South

Northern parts of Tennessee received 0.5-1.5 inches of precipitation this week, but most of the South region was dry with no precipitation occurring. Much warmer-than-normal temperatures accompanied the dryness, with daytime maximum temperatures in excess of 90 degrees F recorded in Texas. Dallas/Fort Worth reached 94 on February 26, which was a daily record and 31 degrees above normal. The hot temperatures increased evapotranspiration which drew moisture out of the soils. The recent dry weather, accompanied by low relative humidity and windy conditions, contributed to an outbreak of wildfires across parts of the region. D0 expanded in southwest Texas where air temperatures were hot, soils were hot and dry, and the last 3 months were drier than normal. Dry 1- to 3-month SPI values prompted expansion of D0 in eastern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northeast Texas and western Arkansas. Dead fields in Sebastian County, Arkansas, were reported via the CMOR (Condition Monitoring Observer Reports) reporting system. D0 expanded in southern Mississippi, adjacent parts of Louisiana, and southeast Texas where SPI was dry, streamflow was low, and some soil moisture indicators showed dryness, and D0 expanded in southeast Tennessee where 1- to 2-month SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) showed dry conditions. A reassessment of data resulted in the deletion of the relic D0 along the southeast Louisiana coast.

Midwest

Half of an inch to an inch of precipitation fell across eastern and southern parts of the Midwest this week – mainly in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky – while the rest of the region had little to no precipitation. The last 30 days have been very dry and much warmer than normal across western and northern parts of the region, with the above-normal temperatures increasing evapotranspiration and helping to dry soils. These short-term drought conditions resulted in expansion of D0-D1 in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. In eastern and southern parts of the region, precipitation last month has kept topsoil conditions near normal but deep-layer soils are dry and streamflow is low. According to media reports, some wells have gone dry in Terre Haute, Indiana, and oak loss was common across Minnesota in 2023.

High Plains

There were a few areas of half an inch to locally 2 inches of precipitation in the High Plains region this week – in North Dakota and parts of Colorado and Wyoming. But the rest of the region had little to no precipitation. Daily high temperatures reached into the 80s F some days in Kansas and up to the 50s and 60s in the Dakotas. Weekly temperatures averaged 10 to 20 degrees above normal across most of the region, increasing evapotranspiration (ET). Since this is February and vegetation is still dormant, the above-normal ET had little effect on vegetation, but soil temperatures were well above freezing in southern parts of the region and the high ET helped to dry soils. D0 expanded in the Dakotas, and D1 crept into northwest North Dakota, to reflect the 1- to 2-month dryness and unusually warm temperatures, and D0 expanded in eastern Kansas where recent precipitation has been low and soils were drying. In Wyoming, very low mountain SWE (snow water content) and dry 1- to 4-month SPI values prompted the expansion of D0-D2.

West

Two to locally 5 inches of precipitation fell in the Oregon and Washington Cascade and Coastal mountains this week, with half an inch to locally 2 inches in the northern and central Rockies and southern California, and 0.5 to 1.5 inches in the Sierra Nevada and parts of coastal California. Outside of these areas, precipitation was generally less than a fourth of an inch, with rainshadow areas and the Southwest (Four Corners States) mostly dry. The precipitation was above normal for the week in some areas, particularly parts of the Cascades, Rockies, and southern California. But amounts were not enough to bring month-to-date totals to near normal values, with these areas still well below normal for the month. And snowpack improved little, with just a few inches of new snow added to most Cascade and Coastal mountain SNOTEL sites. Mountain snowpack and SWE values were still well below normal to near-record low in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. In California, as of February 27, mountain SWE was 94% of normal in the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, 78% of normal in the Central Sierra, and 76% of normal in the southern Sierra. In Washington, D0-D1 was expanded in the northern Cascades and D1 added to the Olympic Mountains to reflect the low snowpack and subnormal precipitation. Low SWE and 1- to 4-month SPEI values resulted in expansion of D0-D3 in parts of Montana.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico had a mixed temperature and precipitation anomaly pattern this week, with no change made to the depiction. Although some streams were low, soils and vegetation were still doing well from the rain events of two weeks ago and water reservoirs were mostly at optimal levels.

St. John and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands remain free of drought/dryness thanks to ample precipitation earlier in February, while St. Thomas remains in moderate drought. In the past week, rainfall reported by CoCoRaHS observers ranged from 0.37 to 1.07 for St. Thomas, 0.32 to 4.10 for St. Croix, and 0.09 to 0.80 for St. John. Flooding was an issue for St. Croix this week. The water levels in the U.S. Geological Survey wells on St. Thomas and St. Croix have risen in recent days, while St. John’s well has held steady in the past week.

Pacific

This week had a mixed temperature and precipitation anomaly pattern across Alaska. With SWE values mostly near to above normal, no change was made to the depiction, so Alaska continued free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Hawaii had a drier than normal week and for the month to date in February. Windward rainfall this week has been enough to prevent worsening, so no change was made to the depiction in Hawaii, where D0 and D1 continue.

The Republic of Palau received 1.78 inches at Palau IAP, remaining free of drought.

Of the Mariana Islands, Guam and Rota remained in moderate drought. Guam received 0.74 inches, while Rota reported 0.72 inches. Saipan IAP received from 0.10 to 0.52 inches at two reporting locations, leading to deterioration from moderate to severe drought this week. These islands need an inch weekly to meet minimum water needs.

Most locations in the Federal States of Micronesia were in some level of dryness or drought. Precipitation was mixed for the week with Kapingamarangi and Pohnpei reporting 11.65 and 12.97 inches, respectively. After receiving nearly 13 inches of rain, Pohnpei improved from moderate drought to abnormal dryness. Lukunor reported 4.10 inches of rain and improved from moderate drought to abnormal dryness. Chuuk Lagoon and Nukuoro remain abnormally dry. Woleai remains in moderate drought, while Pingelap, Ulithi and Yap remain in severe drought. There was no data for Fananu.

The Republic of the Marshall Islands mostly received less than 2 inches of precipitation for the week, except for Ailinglaplap, which reported 3.05 inches. Wotje remained in severe drought and received no rain this week. Kwajalein deteriorated from moderate to severe drought this week, receiving just 0.37 inches. Jaluit remained abnormally dry and reported 2.49 inches, while Majuro, also abnormally dry, got 1.52 inches. The Majuro reservoir held 25.95 million gallons on Feb. 25.

American Samoa remained free of drought, but have had some unusual heat recently. Pago Pago and Siufaga Ridge received less than an inch of rain this week, while Toa Ridge reported 1.45 inches. Pago Pago received more than 7 inches of rain weekly in the previous three weeks.

Looking Ahead

In the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, Pacific moisture continued to move across the Coastal and Cascade ranges in the Pacific Northwest, with precipitation falling in areas east of the Mississippi River and in parts of the southern Plains. For February 29-March 5, a ridge over the eastern CONUS will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to much of the country east of the Rockies while a trough contributes to cooler-than-normal temperatures in the West. Forecast models predict a wet period for much of the West, in the Upper Rio Grande Valley, and from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, as low-pressure systems and fronts bring locally heavy precipitation. The Coastal, Cascade, and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges could see 5 to 10 inches of precipitation, or locally more, while the central to northern Rockies could receive 2 to 4 inches of precipitation. Parts of southern New Mexico and western Texas could receive up to an inch of rain. An inch or more of precipitation is predicted from southern Louisiana to southern New England. Outside of these wet areas, up to half an inch of moisture could fall in the lower elevations of the West, across the northern and southern Plains, and Midwest to Northeast. Areas that could miss out on the precipitation stretch from southern California to the central Plains, where little to no precipitation is expected, and the southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley to eastern Great Lakes, where less than a fourth of an inch may fall.

For much of the next 2 weeks, the atmospheric circulation is expected to continue an upper-level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the eastern two-thirds of the country, with Pacific weather systems migrating through the trough/ridge pattern. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid March 4-8) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid March 6-12) favor a fairly stable pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures from the Plains to East Coast and cooler-than-normal temperatures over the West and Alaska. The outlook is for above-normal precipitation over eastern and southern Alaska and much of the CONUS, especially east of the Mississippi River, with odds favoring near to below-normal precipitation over the northern Rockies to northern Plains and over the west coast of Alaska.

Crop Progress - State Stories

IDAHO: Idaho experienced mild, slightly warmer than normal temperatures in January. Accumulated precipitation was below average in the northern part of the State and average to above average in the southern part of the State. The soil was heavily saturated, creating muddy conditions for cattle operations. Spring calving was underway. Ada and Owyhee Counties reported significant moisture in the mountains and valleys. Producers reported that calving and lambing were progressing well, and hay stocks were sufficient. Initial spring field work was beginning. Owyhee County added that topsoil and mild moisture levels were better than anticipated. Bud break for the trees was early, and multiple varieties came out of dormancy. Perennial grasses were still dormant, but annual broadleaves were flourishing. Jerome and Twin Falls Counties reported that calving and lambing were well underway. Most fields were still too wet for field work. Camas and Gooding Counties reported two feet of snow on the valley floor slowly melting into the ground. Blaine County also reported that most pasture and cropland was covered with snow. Bonneville and Madison Counties reported satisfactory moisture levels. Though the snowpack was a little light, reservoir levels were good. Hay stocks were dwindling but should be enough for a normal spring season. Like the rest of the State, Clark, Fremont, and Madison Counties reported slightly warmer than average temperatures for the month. Clark, Custer, and Lemhi reported that ranchers were busy with calving season. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of February 2024. Topsoil moisture 7% very short, 45% short, 48% adequate. Subsoil moisture 23% very short, 48% short, 29% adequate. Winter wheat condition 2% poor, 53% fair, 41% good, 4% excellent. Winter wheat wind damage 24% moderate, 38% light, 38% none. Winter wheat freeze damage 10% severe, 23% moderate, 24% light, 43% none. Snow cover 12% very poor, 58% poor, 27% fair, 3% good. Pasture and range condition 24% very poor, 38% poor, 34% fair, 3% good, 1% excellent. Grazing accessibility 64% open, 23% difficult, 13% closed. Cows calved 13%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 97%. Ewes lambed 9%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 96%. The month of February brought mostly above normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation to much of Montana, according to the Mountain Regional Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Temperatures ran highest in the eastern third of the State. Temperatures ran as high as 16 to 20 degrees above average in parts of the northeast, according to data from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). Average temperatures ran lower in the west. Moisture levels were in a range of approximately 0.5 to 1.0 inch above average for much of Montana. Parts of Cascade and Madison Counties, as well as surrounding areas, received moisture as much as 1.5 inches above normal. Precipitation levels in the west, and in some parts of the east and southeast, were closer to average or below normal. Drought conditions deteriorated once again according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report released on February 20, 2024. The amount of land rated drought free fell to 12 percent, down from 20 percent as reported on January 23, 2024. Abnormal dryness was found in 45 percent of the State, up 4 percentage points. Moderate drought stood at 22 percent, down from 26 percent on the report published on January 23. Severe drought conditions increased to 20 percent, up 7 percentage points. Extreme drought, which has not been seen since the first part of November, was found in about 1 percent of Montana. Calving conditions were excellent in Powder River County with the warm and dry conditions. At the same time, the lack of moisture and high winds were a concern to many farmers and ranchers. With the higher temperatures in Wibaux County, operators were also in need of more moisture. 

NEVADA: For the week ending February 25 - Days suitable for fieldwork 6.6. Topsoil moisture 35% adequate and 65% surplus. Subsoil moisture short 5%, 40% adequate and 55% surplus. Pasture and range condition 15% fair, 20% good, and 65% excellent. As of February 20, the US Drought Monitor showed 83% of the State was not in drought. Significant rainstorms throughout the month have led to a surplus of moisture in most of the State. Alfalfa is still dormant. Annual weeds started to germinate. 

OREGON: Temperatures throughout the State ranged from normal to above normal. Moisture conditions throughout the State ranged from dry to very wet for February. Columbia, Multnomah, and Washington Counties reported saturated soil with conditions too wet for field work. Low temperatures affected crop progress, but yields should not be affected. Clatsop and Tillamook Counties reported above average precipitation with wet field conditions. Some field work and manure applications were done on the dry days. Pasture growth remained dormant. Morrow County reported above average precipitation. The wheat crop emerged and was in good condition, with no signs of stripe rust. Producers and farmers were on the lookout for this disease. Herbicide applications began in fields with no-till fallow. Gilliam, Hood River, Wheeler, and Wasco Counties reported a positive outlook for crops despite the recent winter spell. Calving season was in good condition. Baker and Grant Counties reported above normal temperatures. Livestock lambing and calving were in good condition due to the warmer weather. Some producers’ fields were dry enough for field work. Umatilla County reported that most winter wheat fields were doing well despite some cold injury from the previous month. Stripe rust was forecasted to be a potential detriment this season. Douglas, Jackson, and Josephine Counties reported a moisture surplus in pastures. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of February 2024. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 12% short, 74% adequate, 9% surplus. Subsoil moisture 11% short, 80% adequate, 9% surplus. Pasture and range condition 18% poor, 37% fair, 42% good, 3% excellent. Winter wheat condition 8% poor, 14% fair, 69% good, 9% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 5% very short, 7% short, 70% adequate, 18% surplus. Stock water supplies 83% adequate, 17% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 7% poor, 17% fair, 66% good, 10% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 11% poor, 21% fair, 54% good, 14% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 89%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 89%. Cows calved 10%. Ewes lambed - farm flock 5%. Ewes lambed - range flock 5%. Cold temperatures along with isolated snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of February. Snowpack in Utah, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service as of February 26, 2024, was 115 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Cache County reported winter wheat suspectable to snow mold. Beaver County reports noted that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues. 

WASHINGTON: Western Washington saw a warmer February than usual. There was less precipitation than normal. In central Washington, operations saw typical February weather, with less precipitation than normal. There was a week of snow, which all melted and helped the soil profile. Crops were getting through the winter in good shape. In Yakima County, significant progress was made in pruning orchards and vineyards, with some orchard removal. Fields of hay, winter wheat, and grasses were greening up. In east-central Washington, producers experienced moderate weather during February. It was too early to tell if the cold snap in January damaged any of the winter wheat crowns. Northeastern Washington had a mild February. There were few reports about winter kill on winter wheat and canola, and calving was underway. In southeast Washington, February brought spring like conditions with little precipitation, causing the snowpack to be well below normal. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of February 2024. Topsoil moisture 12% very short, 45% short, 43% adequate. Subsoil moisture 20% very short, 46% short, 34% adequate. Winter wheat condition 4% very poor, 11% poor, 59% fair, 25% good, 1 percent excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 1% very short, 2% short, 90% adequate, 7% surplus. Livestock condition 1% very poor, 2% poor, 6% fair, 84% good, 7% excellent. Stock water supplies 3% very short, 10% short, 85% adequate, 2% surplus. Pasture and range condition 2% very poor, 8% poor, 58% fair, 30% good, 2% surplus. Wyoming received little relief from the ongoing drought conditions during the month of February. Precipitation was scattered and total accumulations varied, ranging from a trace to as much as 6 inches during the month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures across the State were warmer than normal, ranging from 2 to 10 degrees above average. Drought conditions in the State slightly improved during February according to the United States Drought Monitor report published on February 20, 2024. The amount of land rated drought free equaled 44 percent, compared with 41 percent on January 23, 2024. Abnormally dry conditions covered 34 percent of the State, moderate drought was found in 16 percent, and severe drought was found in 6 percent.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/27)

 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/26)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 82 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	723254 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (2/22)

An atmospheric river of Pacific storm systems slammed parts of the West Coast with heavy precipitation during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (February 14-20). The weather systems dried out as they crossed the western mountains, then produced anemic precipitation amounts east of the Rockies. Parts of the Midwest and Northeast received limited precipitation amounts from passing cold fronts, and heavier rain fell along the Texas coast and across Florida from another frontal system, but much of the country east of the Rockies, as well as the southwestern U.S., received little to no precipitation. The weather systems distorted the upper-level circulation over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), which otherwise consisted of a high-pressure ridge over western North America and a low-pressure trough over the east. The end result of this distortion was a temperature anomaly pattern that consisted of warmer-than-normal weekly temperatures in the Upper Midwest and parts of the interior West, and below-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, and southern tier states, with near-normal temperatures elsewhere. An upper-level ridge over the Caribbean brought generally dry and warmer-than-normal weather to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while ridges also kept Alaska mostly drier and warmer than normal and Hawaii drier than normal this week. Drought or abnormal dryness expanded or intensified this week in parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, Rio Grande Valley, eastern North Carolina, and much of Hawaii. Drought or abnormal dryness contracted or reduced in intensity in parts of the Four Corners states and Lower Mississippi Valley.

Northeast

Half an inch or more of precipitation fell this week over parts of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New England. The rest of the region received less than half an inch. A 1-category improvement was made in southern Massachusetts, based on recent precipitation and recovering groundwater – abnormal dryness ended on Cape Cod, moderate drought ended on Martha’s Vineyard, and severe drought improved to moderate drought on Nantucket. Much of New England and northern New York has been dry for the last 1 to 2 months, with the dryness especially acute for the last 1 to 3 months along the Canadian border. If the dry conditions persist, a strip of D0 (Abnormally Dry) may be needed from northern Maine to northern Vermont in the next month or two, but for now that area was left free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Southeast

Almost all of Florida received half an inch or more of rain this week, with parts of the Peninsula getting 2 inches or more. But the rest of the Southeast region got little to no precipitation. The last 30 days have been quite dry along the coast from southeast Virginia to South Carolina. D0 expanded in eastern North Carolina where streamflow and soil moisture are below normal and 30- to 60-day precipitation deficits have been the greatest.

South

Half an inch or more of precipitation fell across parts of the Texas coast, and there were a few areas of up to half an inch of precipitation in Arkansas and Tennessee, but otherwise the South region received no precipitation this week. D0 and D1 were expanded in west Texas along the Rio Grande Valley to reflect dry conditions over the last 7 days to 3 months, low streams, drying soils, and stressed vegetation indicated by satellite. D0 was contracted in South Texas and D1 contracted slightly in central Texas (Bell County). No change was made in Oklahoma, where reservoir levels remain historically low. A reassessment of conditions resulted in the removal of the D3 (extreme drought) and trimming of D2 in northwest Mississippi, trimming of D0-D1 in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, and trimming of D0 in Tennessee. Precipitation is near to above normal in these areas for the last 1 to 4 months, streamflow is near to above normal, and surface soil moisture has been recharged. In Louisiana, stock ponds mostly refilled. The remaining D0-D2 is sufficient to reflect the longer-term dryness which shows up most severely at the 6- to 12-month time scales.

Midwest

A few areas received half an inch of precipitation, but most of the Midwest region saw only a couple tenths of an inch. Dry conditions over the last 1 to 6 months prompted the expansion of D0-D2 in Michigan and Wisconsin and D1 in southeast and northeast Minnesota. The lack of snow (“snow drought”) in Minnesota has had a sizable impact on winter recreation. D0 expanded slightly in northwest Iowa. D0 expanded in southern Illinois where the last 1-3 months have been dry, streamflow and water table levels are below normal, and reports of some field fires have been received. In eastern Missouri, D0 and D1 expanded to reflect lowering streams, drying soils, and 3- to 9-month precipitation deficits. Temperatures were 6 to 9 degrees above normal in northern parts of the region this week. The Midwest has experienced unusually warmer-than-normal temperatures during the last 1 to 2 months, with the last month averaging 6 degrees above normal along the Ohio Valley to over 15 degrees above normal in Minnesota. Since this is winter, vegetation is dormant and evapotranspiration is minimal. But in the weeks ahead, if the anomalous warmth persists as the region transitions into spring, evapotranspiration will increase, soils will dry, and the effects of the moisture stress, if rain isn’t sufficient, will need to be reflected in the USDM depiction.

High Plains

Half an inch to locally 2 inches of precipitation fell this week over the Colorado mountains into adjacent Wyoming, and over western Wyoming. A band of precipitation extended across South Dakota, with locally up to half an inch falling. Otherwise, the High Plains region received little to no precipitation. D0 was expanded in the Dakotas, and D1 expanded in North Dakota, where the last 3 months have been dry and the lack of snow cover has exposed bare ground. D0 and D1 were adjusted in north central and southwest Colorado where recent precipitation resulted in local improvements and continued dryness caused local expansion. D2 was introduced in north central and northeastern Wyoming.

West

Five inches or more of precipitation fell along the California coast, across much of northern California, and in southwestern coastal Oregon, with 2 inches or more inland to the Sierra Nevada, Oregon Cascade mountain range, and over southwestern coastal Washington. Half an inch to an inch of precipitation fell across southern parts of the Pacific Northwest inland to the Rockies and a few areas to the north, with up to 2 inches falling from the Great Salt Lake area to Yellowstone National Park. Another area of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation occurred over the Colorado Rockies into adjacent Wyoming. Parts of California have received over 10 inches of precipitation during February and the Sierra Nevada range has received 1 to 3 feet of new snow since the end of January. But even with a wet February, much of the Sierra Nevada still has a below-normal snowpack. As of February 16, the northern Sierra snow water content (SWE) was 83% of normal, the central Sierra SWE was 74% of normal, and the southern Sierra SWE was 72% of normal. So, the D0 along the California-Nevada border was left unchanged.

While this week was dry across New Mexico, precipitation from the last 2 weeks to 3 months prompted the elimination of the D4 in southwestern New Mexico and the northwest D2, and contraction of the D3 in north central and D2 in southwestern parts of the state.

In northern parts of the West, precipitation for the water year to date (October 1, 2023-February 18, 2024) has been largely below normal and the winter snowpack is significantly below normal. Parts of the northern Rockies have record low SWE values, according to SNOTEL data. D0 expanded in parts of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington; spots of severe drought (D2) were added in north central and northeast Wyoming; and D2 was expanded and new D3 added in parts of Montana, especially the western and southern mountains, where the last 3 to 4 months have been dry and SWE values are record low.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico had a drier-than-normal and mostly warmer-than-normal week, following very wet conditions last week. Improvement was made last week, so no changes were made this week. The existing D0 and D1 reflect the dry soils, low streamflow, and longer-term dryness.

Tranquil weather returned across the U.S. Virgin Islands, following the previous week’s heavy rain. During the 7-day drought-monitoring period ending February 20, rainfall at all official and volunteer (CoCoRaHS) observation sites ranged from 0.00 to 0.04 inch. However, there were no changes to the depiction—long-term moderate drought (D1-L) continued on St. Thomas, while neither dryness nor drought was observed on St. John and St. Croix—as improvements from the early-February downpours continued to be reflected in groundwater and vegetation health. At the U.S. Geological Survey Adventure 28 Well on St. Croix, depth to water improved from 34.23 to 31.71 feet between February 3 and 14.

Pacific

This week was mostly drier and warmer than normal across Alaska. With SWE values mostly near to above normal, no change was made to the depiction, so Alaska continued free of drought and abnormal dryness. However, precipitation has been below normal for the water year to date (October 1, 2023-February 19, 2024) in southwest Alaska, including Cook Inlet and the Northwest Gulf area. And based on webcams, there is little to no significant snow in the mountains over the southern half of the Panhandle, and this region has had below-normal precipitation for the month of February. The snow drought situation in the southern Panhandle could have significant hydropower/water and environmental impacts by early summer if 1) there's no significant mountain snow in the next few weeks and 2) spring and early summer turn out comparatively dry and warm.

February has generally been dry across Hawaii, reflecting the drier-than-normal conditions usually associated with a strong El Nino event. Low rainfall and stream levels, in combination with impact reports from multiple sources, resulted in expansion of D0 on the Big Island and introduction of D0 on Kauai, Niihau, Oahu, Kahoolawe, and parts of Lanai and Maui.

El Niño-related short-term drought continued to gradually expand and intensify across portions of the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, with burgeoning impacts on vegetation health and fresh-water supplies. A notable exception was south of the Equator, in American Samoa, where heavy rain continued. During the first 20 days of February, 22.99 inches of rain fell at American Samoa’s Pago Pago International Airport.

Meanwhile, changes in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) for the drought-monitoring period ending February 20 included adding abnormal dryness (D0) for Nukuoro and Chuuk Lagoon, as well as deterioration from abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought (from D0 to D1) for Lukunor. Less than one-half inch of rain fell during the week at all FSM sites, except Kosrae (more than 5 inches) and Kapingamarangi (about an inch). In places such as Yap, Ulithi, and Pingelap, where drier-than-normal conditions began earlier, starting in November 2022, severe drought (D2) was solidly entrenched. Moderate drought (D1) was noted for Woleai and Pohnpei.

In the Mariana Islands, mid-February showers—with weekly rainfall totals near an inch—temporarily stabilized conditions, with moderate drought (D1) being reported again this week for Guam, Rota, and Saipan. Nevertheless, the Marianas are at risk of further drought deterioration, amid frequently dry, breezy conditions. Winds recently gusted to 40 mph at the international airports on Guam (on February 15) and Saipan (on February 14), and Guam had a Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) value of 663 on February 21, reflective of a very high fire danger.

Enough precipitation has been falling in the Republic of Palau to hold off on the introduction of abnormal dryness, although rainfall intensity has decreased in recent weeks.

Finally, no changes were introduced in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), despite a continuation of drier-than-normal weather. By February 20, the RMI depiction included severe drought (D2) for Wotje; moderate drought (D1) for Kwajalein; and abnormally dry conditions (D0) for Jaluit, Majuro, and Mili. Rainfall throughout the RMI totaled less than one-half inch at all observation sites until the end of the drought-monitoring period, when heavier showers arrived across some of the southern islands such as Jaluit, Ailinglapalap, and Majuro. For Majuro, reservoir storage has been somewhat resilient since the last heavy rain fell in early February, with 27.3 million gallons of fresh water available on February 15.

Looking Ahead

In the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, Pacific moisture continued to move across parts of the West, with little precipitation falling east of the Rockies. For February 22-27, one weather system will move across the eastern CONUS, while another moves into the West by the end of the period. The first is forecast to drop 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians northward to the southern Great Lakes and central Appalachians, with half of an inch or less over the Northeast and even less over the Southeast. The second is expected to bring an inch or more of precipitation to the central and northern Rockies, coastal ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and Sierra Nevada, with up to 3 or 4 inches in the Washington Cascades. Other areas of the West are forecast to receive less than half an inch of precipitation, with little to no precipitation over the Southwest and to the lee of the Cascades in Washington. For the Great Plains to Mississippi Valley, little to no precipitation is predicted. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal, with the warmest anomalies across the Plains and Mississippi Valley due to upper-level ridging.

For much of the next 2 weeks, the atmospheric circulation is expected to consist of an upper-level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the eastern two-thirds of the country, with Pacific weather systems migrating through the trough/ridge pattern. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid February 27-March 2) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid February 29-March 6) favor a fairly stable pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures from the Plains to East Coast and cooler-than-normal temperatures over the West and Alaska. The outlook is for above-normal precipitation over much of the CONUS, especially along the West Coast and Great Lakes, with odds favoring near to below-normal precipitation across the Plains and over most of Alaska.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/20)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/19)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 80 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	800487 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (2/15)

Last week, another round of Pacific storms swept across the West, bringing rain and mountain snow. Storms left over 3 feet of snow in the northern Arizona mountains before dropping more than a foot of snow in the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico. After a slow start to the year, basin snowpack in the Southwest has returned to near-normal conditions. Southwestern states saw improvements to short- and long-term drought conditions. In the Northwest, basin snowpack remains below normal with some of the worst conditions in the northern Rocky Mountains. The lack of snow led to the expansion of drought conditions. The wet pattern continued in the South and Southeast. In the last 30 days, rainfall totals of more than 10 inches (200 to 400 percent of normal) fell in parts of the South and Southeast.

The excess rain brought additional one- and two-category improvements to drought. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest stayed relatively dry, with temperatures well above normal for the second week in a row. States in the Southern Plains saw pockets of improvements as long-term moisture deficits are finally showing signs of improvement. The winter storm that brought heavy snow to the Northeast on Wednesday occurred at the data cutoff for this week’s map.

Northeast

No changes were made to the map in the Northeast. Moderate drought (D1) remains in western New York and Martha’s Vineyard. Nantucket remains in severe drought (D2). The heavy snow from Wednesday’s winter storm will be evaluated on next week's map.

Southeast

Last week was wet for much of the Southeast. Rainfall totals ranged from less than 0 in parts of Florida to nearly 4 inches in parts of Georgia. When combined with the previous week’s rainfall, parts of Alabama and Georgia recorded totals of 10 to 12 inches — 200 to 400% of normal — over the last 30 days. All remaining moderate drought (D1) was removed with abnormally dry conditions (D0) left to reflect areas with lingering long-term moisture and groundwater deficits. D0 expanded in eastern North Carolina, where rainfall deficits of close to 3 inches over the last 30 days can be found. Here, streamflow has fallen below normal and well levels have dropped.

South

Another round of wet weather brought 2 to 4 inches of rain to parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The continued wet weather left a band, stretching from east Texas to northeast Alabama, with rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches — 200 to 400 percent of normal —over the last 30 days. Much of the region saw 1- and even 2-category improvements to drought conditions. All exceptional drought (D4) has been eliminated. Moderate (D1), severe (D2), and extreme (D3) drought remain in the region where drought signals can still be found in long-term indicators. Despite the record-breaking rainfall over the last several weeks, deficits of 4 to 10 inches over the last six months remain over parts of many parts of the region. Groundwater levels and deeper soil moisture also remain historically low for this time of year in some places. West Texas was the only area where drought expanded. Moderate drought (D1) was added in response to growing long-term moisture deficits and impacts to soil moisture, groundwater, and vegetation.

Midwest

High temperatures averaged from 7 to 20 degrees above normal. Precipitation was less than 1 inch across most areas. Changes to the map were limited areas of D0 (abnormal dryness). D0 expanded in Wisconsin and near St. Louis in response to the recent warm dry weather and lowered streamflow values. D0 was removed southeast Missouri, where rainfall totals have been above normal.

High Plains

High temperatures averaged about 8 to more than 20 degrees above normal. Precipitation of less than 0. 5 inches fell across much of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas. Southwest Nebraska, Kansas, and eastern Colorado saw 1-category improvements to long-term drought areas. Short-term moisture deficits have largely been eliminated. A dry signal remains in Nebraska and Kansas at timescales longer than about 6 months and moisture deficits linger in deeper soil levels and ground water. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in western South Dakota, near the Black Hills, and northeast Wyoming due to a lack of snow and below-normal soil moisture levels.

West

Pacific storms swept across the West again this week, bringing rain and mountain snow. Over 3 feet of snow fell in the northern Arizona mountains. The mountains of Colorado and New Mexico saw over a foot in some locations. The recent storms brought some of the best snowfall totals to date for this year’s snow season. Basin snowpack in the Southwest has returned to near-normal conditions, prompting improvements to areas of moderate (D1), severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) drought. The largest improvements occurred in New Mexico and southwest Colorado. In the Northwest, basin snowpack remains below normal with some of the worst conditions in the northern Rocky Mountains. This lack of snow led to the expansion of D1 across southern Montana, northern Wyoming, central Idaho, and south-central Oregon. D2 expanded in eastern Idaho and western Montana. D1 improved in southern Washington and northern Oregon where above-normal precipitation over the last six months has helped reduce long-term moisture deficits.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, last week’s rain event brought improvements to moderate drought (D1) in the western, central, and southeast parts of the island. Local drought experts note improvements to streamflow, soil moisture, and vegetation.

Abundant rainfall was recorded across most of the Virgin Islands this past week, especially early in the period. Although the precipitation caused some localized flooding, it brought notable improvement to the dryness and drought that has been affecting the region.

The heaviest rains were observed on St Croix. Rohlsen Airport in Christiansted reported just over 4.5 inches of rain for the week, but several sites around the city reported 5.3 to 7.9 inches. Meanwhile, a few locations in and around Frederiksted reported 4.0 to 4.7 inches. The soaking rains brought robust relief from the dry conditions affecting the region. Leaving St. Croix with no dryness designation after experiencing moderate drought (D1) last week – a two-classification improvement. The one-month SPI is an extremely wet 2.79 at Rohlsen Airport, and only long-term SPI are negative (no shorter than 9 months).

A few locations around Charlotte Amalie on St. Thomas reported just shy of 3 inches of rain while a couple of other locations reported closer to 2 inches, but data there may be incomplete. Rainfall was sufficient to improve the dryness designation by one class, to moderate drought (D1) from severe drought last week.

On St. John, Windswept Beach reported approximately 4 inches of rain last week while 3.3 to 4.4 inches fell across the Cruz Bay area, and 2 inches were recorded at Myall Point. The soaking rains were enough to bring an end to abnormal dryness on St. John, and there is no longer any dryness designation there.

Pacific

In Alaska, no changes were made to the map this week.

In Hawaii, moderate drought (D1) expanded on the Big Island along the northeast slope of Mauna Kea in response to reports of increased dryness. Abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from the north and east sides of the island to align with streamflow and recent rainfall reports.

It was considerably drier than normal across the USAPI in general last week, although there were a few exceptions. Several inches of rain fell on American Samoa, the southernmost reaches of Micronesia, and southeastern portions of the Marshall Islands. In addition, portions of Palau reported almost two inches of rain. Elsewhere, totals were generally under an inch, which is considerably less than what is generally needed to keep up with demand.

Sites on Palau reported 1.1 to 1.8 inches of rain last week, which is a little drier than what is optimal, but earlier rainfall has February totals near 5 inches, which is about normal. Prior to this, almost 14 inches of rain fell during January. Thus, no dryness designation is indicated here.

It was very dry across the Marianas this past week. Rainfall totals generally ranged from a few hundredths of an inch to at most 0.2 inch (Saipan). So far in February, less than one-half inch has fallen, where normal ranges from 1.2 to 2.4 inches. In January, 1.8 to 3.0 inches were reported across the islands, which was 48 to 58 percent of normal. These amounts are considerably below the rate of 4 inches per month generally needed to keep up with demand, and D0 (abnormal dryness) remained unchanged from the prior week.

Across Micronesia, Kapingamarangi reported over 5.4 inches, mostly early in the period. Otherwise, amounts ranged from about 0.1 to 0.6 inch.

In western Micronesia, Yap and Ulithi remained in severe drought (D2). February rainfall so far has totaled only 0.9 to 1.2 inches (about one-third to one-half normal), and since November, Yap has received about 17.1 inches (normal 28.5 inches), and Ulithi 15.4 inches (normal 23.8 inches). These totals are considerably under the 8 inches generally required to keep up with demand. Meanwhile, at Woleai, about 1.6 inches of rain has fallen in February (58 percent of normal), and for December-January, totaled 10.4 inches (normal near 17 inches). Due to the increasing deficits, and being considerably drier than the 8 inches per month generally needed to keep up with demand, Woleai was degraded this week to moderate drought (D1), up from abnormally dry last week.

Conditions are better across central Micronesia; specifically (north to south) Chuuk, Lukunor, Nukuoro, and Kapingamarangi. Wetness dates back a few months at Kapingamarangi, where the 5.5 inches for February-to-date follows over 17 inches in January, precluding any dryness-related impacts. Meanwhile, Chuuk reported 10 to 22 inches of rain for each of the last 10 full months, and Nukuoro recorded over 40 inches for November-January; thus, despite subnormal February precipitation, these sites also have no dryness designation. The lone site experiencing some observable degree of dryness in central Micronesia is Lukunoch/Lukonor. Only one-third of normal rainfall has been reported for February 1-12, and January, with 5.4 inches of rain, was the driest month since September 2022. With the last six weeks bringing much less than the 8 inches per month generally needed to keep up with demand, Lukunoch/Lukunor remained in abnormal dryness (D0) this week.

In eastern Micronesia, conditions at Pingelap deteriorated to D2 (severe drought, intensification from D1 last week), Pohnpei persisted in abnormal dryness (D0), and Kosrae (near the Marshall Islands) remained free of any dryness or drought. Just under 10.5 inches of rain fell on Pingelap for December-January (normal 25.6 inches), and only 0.2 inch fell for February 1-13 (less than 5 percent of normal). The December-to-date total of near 10.7 inches is less than 40 percent of normal (30.4 inches) and considerably under the 8 inches per month considered ideal. Deterioration to D2 was based primarily on the extreme scarcity of rain in the past two weeks, following two sharply dry months. February rainfall has been more generous at Pohnpei (about 2.5 inches), but still only 60 percent of normal. Both December (less than 7.8 inches) and January (just 4.4 inches) were much drier than normal, and below the optimum threshold of about 8 inches per month. Since February has not been as excessively dry at Pohnpei as at Pingelap, the former site remained in moderate drought (D1) as it was last week. Kosrae has been wetter than the other two aforementioned locales, reporting about 4.6 inches of rain so far in February, which is a bit over 80 percent of normal, and above the 8-inch-per-month rate considered optimal. January totals there topped 15 inches which, while considerably below the large climatological normal, is well over the requisite 8 inches per month, so Kosrae remained dryness-free (no designation).

Most locations in the Marshall Islands are experiencing some degree of notable dryness, with the most acute conditions extending across the northern tier of the country – specifically, Kwajalein (moderate drought, D1) and Wotje (severe drought, D2). Meanwhile, three sites in southern and eastern parts of the Islands were all experiencing abnormal dryness (Majuro, Mili, and Jaluit, all D0). The only reporting site free of significant dryness is the west-central location of Ailinglapalap.

Wotje, which is climatologically the driest of the USAPI sites, reported 21.5 inches of rain for September-December (normal 28.9 inches). January was wetter than normal, but this is during the dry season, and the monthly total was only 3.6 inches. February has been even drier, with 0.35 inch recorded during the first 13 days of the month (about 58 percent of normal). The combination of longer-term deficits, greater vulnerability due to the drier climatology, and the acutely dry February-to-date totals prompted deterioration to D2 (severe drought) this week.

Kwajalein was relatively wet during mid- to late-autumn, but December was slightly drier than normal, and conditions dried out even more beginning in January. Through February 13, the year-to-date total of 2.4 inches is well under both the normal (5.4 inches) and the preferred average of about 8 inches per month to keep up with demand. Moderate drought (D1) persisted here from last week.

Across the southern and east-central Marshalls, the December-January two-month period was considerably drier than normal at Majuro (12.3 inches, 62 percent of normal) and Jaluit (13.6 inches, about two-thirds normal). At Mili, totals were closer to normal at 17.9 inches. All of these locations are near or slightly wetter than normal for February so far. As a result, abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced this week at Kwajalein while Majuro remained at D0 (abnormally dry), the same as last week. Conditions are more marginal at Mili, but with amounts for the last few weeks below the preferred 8 inches per month, abnormal dryness (D0) remained unchanged from last week there.

In the west-central Marshalls, Ailinglapalap remained free of any dryness or drought designation. Only somewhat more than half of normal rainfall was observed February 1-13, but rainfall was adequate during December-January (17 inches total) and abundant the prior two months (October-November total approached 34 inches). Despite the recent drop in rainfall, antecedent conditions have kept obvious dryness-related impacts at bay so far.

February is shaping up to be the third consecutive month with excessive rainfall in American Samoa. To date, February has brought over 14 inches of rain to Pago Pago. Earlier in the winter, 44 inches was recorded for December-January (normal about 29 inches), precluding any dryness-related impacts for now and the immediate future.

Looking Ahead

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast (valid February 15 – 17, 2024) calls for another round of rainfall to push into the West Coast, bringing heavy rain and high elevation snow to the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and the Northern Rockies. Polar air from Canada is expected to bring cold, dry air into the Northern Plains. Snow is expected across the Central Plains and Ohio Valley. Heading into the weekend, the extended forecast (valid February 17 - 21, 2024) calls for increased chances of multiple atmospheric river events for parts of central and southern California. Areas of lighter precipitation may spread across other parts of the west. The Upper Midwest and Northeast may see some snowfall. Storms tracking across the Gulf of Mexico may bring rain to Florida. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-to-10-day outlook (valid February 20 – 24, 2024) calls for an increased probability of above-normal temperatures across most of the continental U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska. Temperatures across southern California, the East Coast, and northern Alaska are expected to be near to below normal. Increased precipitation is expected across California, the interior West, southern Alaska, and the Northeast. Much of the remaining CONUS, northern Alaska, and the Big Island of Hawaii are expected to have below- or near-normal precipitation.