Dry weather enveloped much of the western U.S. this week, with a few exceptions, leading to persistence or worsening of ongoing drought in the Northwest and in the Rocky Mountains in Wyoming and Colorado. Farther east, in the Great Plains, a mix of degradations, improvements or no changes to drought status or lack thereof occurred, as scattered hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms moved across the Great Plains this week. Improvements were most prevalent in western Kansas and northeast Colorado, in parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico and along the Missouri and Big Sioux Rivers in Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. Degradations occurred in parts of central and north-central Colorado, in north-central and northwest South Dakota and in parts of central and east-central Nebraska. This week’s rainfall and continued assessment of the impact of previous rains led to widespread improvements in Arkansas, northern Louisiana and portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. Heavy rains, locally exceeding 5 inches, drenched areas in central and northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, leading to widespread one- and isolated two-category improvements in areas where drought or abnormal dryness was ongoing. Short-term abnormal dryness emerged in parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula and northeast Minnesota, and in areas just southeast of St. Louis after a drier-than-normal last couple of months. Heavy rains, locally exceeding 4 inches, drenched parts of the northern mid-Atlantic region, the New York City area and southern New England, leading to localized improvements. Ongoing groundwater shortages and long-term precipitation deficits somewhat tempered this week’s categorical improvements, though the rain improved the short-term picture in many areas. Similarly, localized heavy rains, in some places exceeding 5 inches, fell in the Florida Peninsula, locally improving conditions amid remaining low lake levels and longer-term precipitation shortfalls. Short-term dryness began to emerge again across parts of northern Georgia, the Carolinas and parts of adjacent Virginia, leading to low soil moisture and streamflow in areas already experiencing long-term dryness or drought. Recent very dry weather continued in much of Puerto Rico, leading to expansion of moderate drought and the expansion of severe drought along parts of the island’s southern coast. Short-term moderate drought also developed this week in northwest Alaska, while several areas of abnormal dryness developed or expanded.
Temperatures in the Northeast were 6-9 degrees warmer than normal in most areas, with a few spots topping 9 degrees above normal. Widespread heavy rains fell in the New York City area, southern New England, southern New York, eastern Pennsylvania and portions of New Jersey. Rain amounts over 2 inches were common, and some locations saw rain amounts of 4-6 inches. Ongoing drought and abnormal dryness improved in parts of eastern Pennsylvania, southern West Virginia, New Jersey, southern New York and a few areas of Connecticut and Rhode Island where the heaviest rains occurred. Long-term precipitation deficits and groundwater shortages continued in many areas, so this week’s improvements were mostly limited to the areas where rainfall amounts were heaviest. Recent precipitation has also improved soil moisture in southern Maine, leading to the removal of moderate drought there, though the area has not yet caught up with long-term precipitation shortages.
Southeast
Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in the northern half of the Southeast this week, while the southern half was generally near normal. Temperatures in northern Georgia, northeast Alabama, parts of the Carolinas and Virginia were 3-9 degrees above normal. Isolated areas of at least 2 inches of rain occurred in parts of east-central Virginia and isolated parts of northern North Carolina. Widespread heavy rains, locally in excess of 5 inches, fell across parts of the Florida Peninsula. In the areas of North Carolina and Virginia that received more generous rain amounts, localized improvements occurred as precipitation deficits lessened and soil moisture increased. In northern Virginia, northern Georgia, and large parts of North Carolina and large areas of South Carolina, drier weather occurred amid warmer-than-normal temperatures. This resulted in widespread degradation in drought conditions in areas where soil moisture, streamflow and precipitation deficits in the short- and long-term worsened. Water restrictions and organized conservation efforts were occurring in several locations in Virginia and North Carolina. Heavy rain amounts in the Florida Peninsula alleviated short-term precipitation deficits and locally improved soil moisture and streamflow, leading to a few areas of improvement in ongoing long-term drought. Locally heavy rain in parts of the Florida Panhandle also led to local improvements.
South
Near- or warmer-than-normal temperatures covered most of the South this week. Rainfall amounts varied, with some areas staying completely dry, though amounts over 2 inches fell in parts of southern Arkansas, northern and southern Louisiana, central and western Tennessee, northeast Texas and a few parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Texas. Deficits in soil moisture and precipitation lessened in parts of far western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and other areas of western Texas, leading to some improvements in ongoing drought. Likewise, long-term drought conditions were improved in portions of central Tennessee, aided by rains this week. A small area of severe drought developed in north-central Tennessee, where precipitation deficits grew and soils dried. Recent rainfall also improved soil moisture, streamflow and lessened precipitation shortages across much of northern and southeast Louisiana and central and southern Arkansas, leading to widespread improvements to drought or abnormal dryness. Isolated improvements also occurred in northwest Mississippi, though conditions across Mississippi were mostly stable as far as drought or dryness.
Midwest
Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across much of the Midwest this week, especially around the Great Lakes, where temperatures were mostly 6-12 degrees above normal. Heavy rains brought widespread amounts of 2-8 inches from portions of central and northern Iowa to southern Minnesota and central and west-central Wisconsin. Separately, heavy rains (mostly in the 2-6 inch range) fell west of Chicago eastward to southeast Michigan. Much of this rain fell in areas already free of drought or abnormal dryness, but some one-category improvements occurred northwest of Chicago, and one- and isolated two-category improvements occurred in northwest and north-central Iowa, southeast Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. Recent dry weather led to a few areas of abnormal dryness in the Michigan Upper Peninsula, northeast Minnesota and Isle Royale National Park, while similar recent dryness also led to expanding abnormal dryness and short- and long-term moderate drought south and southeast of St. Louis.
High Plains
Temperatures in the High Plains region were mostly near- or warmer-than-normal this week, with temperatures in eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota ranging from 3-6 degrees above normal. (Temperatures west of the Continental Divide were mostly below normal, though conditions in Wyoming and Colorado will be discussed in the West section.) Deficits in precipitation and soil moisture grew in parts of eastern Nebraska, where abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded. North-central and western South Dakota also saw expansion of abnormal dryness and drought as short- and long-term precipitation deficits grew amid declining soil moisture and streamflow. Parts of central Colorado, especially near and east of Denver and Colorado Springs, saw conditions degrade this week as precipitation deficits grew. Similar conditions in north-central Colorado and south-central and northwest Wyoming, leading to degradations there. A small area of improvement occurred in north-central Wyoming, where vegetation conditions improved after recent precipitation. Scattered heavier rains fell in showers and thunderstorms that moved across parts of the Great Plains of northeast Colorado, the northern half of Kansas, parts of southwest and southeast Nebraska, and the Missouri and Big Sioux River corridors in South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. These rains locally improved drought or abnormally dry conditions.
Precipitation fell in portions of the Idaho-Montana border and across parts of southern and eastern Montana, and in a few areas of northwest Washington. Rainfall amounts around an inch fell in parts of New Mexico, though heavier amounts were mostly confined to east-central and southeast parts of the state, where conditions were re-assessed and local improvements occurred. Otherwise, much of the West region was dry this week. Conditions worsened in parts of central and southwest Colorado, where multiple large wildfires were occurring in areas of low soil moisture and large precipitation deficits. Degradations also occurred in parts of Oregon and adjacent far northern California and in north-central Washington. In these areas, streamflow levels remained low and precipitation deficits at both short- and long-term timescales grew. Water deliveries to properties near Bend, Oregon, were shut off this week as water supplies rain low. Widespread severe and extreme drought also continued in the eastern half of Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah and southern Idaho. Temperatures across the West region were mostly near- or cooler-than-normal, with temperature anomalies of 3-6 degrees below normal spreading across much of California, Nevada and parts of Arizona.
Short-term moderate and severe drought expanded this week in eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico, and moderate drought expanded eastward to include the islands of Vieques and Culebra. Vegetation impacts increased amid short-term precipitation deficits and reduced streamflow. Rainfall was mostly below normal in Puerto Rico, while temperatures there ranged from mostly 1-3 degrees warmer than normal.
During much of the past drought week (Wed, Jul 1 - Tue, Jul 7, 2026), a typical summertime trade wind pattern persisted across Puerto Rico and the USVI. This featured a broad surface high pressure area over the central Atlantic which maintained moderate east-southeast winds. This pattern favored passing showers across the USVI and eastern Puerto Rico during the overnight and morning hours, followed by isolated afternoon showers over the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. In addition, concentrations of Saharan dust produced hazy skies, reduced visibility, and degraded air quality. Persistent high-level cloudiness, warm surrounding waters, and continued onshore flow limited nighttime cooling, with many coastal areas seeing temperatures falling to only around 80-82 degrees. The lack of overnight relief, combined with a shallow increase in low-level moisture confined below 850 mb, resulted in higher humidity and dangerous heat indices.
The 7-day satellite-based precipitation estimates from NASA SPoRT/Imerg showed rainfall amounts under a half-inch, consistent with ground-based measurements. The amounts shown below are for individual stations and valid for the full 7-day period unless noted otherwise.
In St. Croix, sorted (from lowest to highest) individual station measurements include: Rohlsen Airport (#11624, a trace), VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE, 0.01-inch), VI-SC-09 (Christiansted 4.1 ESE, 0.03-inch, 5 days of data), East Hill (#672560, 0.08-inch), VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W, 0.09-inch, 5 days of data), VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW, 0.17-inch), VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE, 0.21-inch, 4 days), VI-SC-25 (Christiansted 4.4 W, 0.25-inch, 6 days), VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E, 0.32-inch), and VI-SC-29 (Frederiksted 2.5 NNE, 0.41-inch). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values for Rohlsen Airport for 1-, 3-, and 6-months are, respectively, -3.40, -1.60, and -1.99 which suggests careful monitoring for further degradation in the near future. At East Hill, the SPI values at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-months are: -1.53, -1.23, -0.19, -0.90, and -0.39, which are more consistent with current D2-S conditions. The Adventure 28 Well experienced a gradual decline in water level, ranging from 23.07 feet to 23.55 feet below the ground surface.
At St. John’s, precipitation amounts ranged from 0.01-inch at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) to 0.03-inch at VI-SJ-10 (Cruz Bay 3.1 NNW) and at VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach). An observer at Windswept Beach noted “Dry and windy with lots of Saharan dust….but at least the wind and the ocean moderate the heat.” The SPI values at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12 months at Windswept Beach are, respectively: -2.10, -1.37, -0.02, -1.13, and -0.19, which are generally consistent with St. John’s current D2-S drought designation. Well water levels at the Susannaberg Dpw-3 Well fell from 16.14 feet to 16.44 feet below the ground surface this week.
Dry conditions persisted at St. Thomas this week as well. Station VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West 1.3 N, 4 days of data) reported no rain, and King Airport (#11640) measured only a trace of rain this week. The King Airport SPI values at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 9-months were, respectively: -2.67, -2.52, -0.29, and -1.23, which emphasizes the heavily “front-loaded” (more recent) dryness. Provisional well water data from the USGS Grade School 3 Well featured a very slow downward trend in water level until the last day when it “tanked” significantly. The values ranged from 9.45 feet below the ground surface early in the week to 9.89 feet at week’s end.
Based on the recently observed precipitation amounts, provisional USGS well water levels, and latest SPI values, the drought designations at the three USVI stations remain at D2-S this week. One contributor towards the current drought situation is the presence of El Nino, which typically introduces enhanced westerly wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic. This increased shear is unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclones, which usually bring significant rainfall to the northeastern Caribbean region in summer.
Pacific
Short-term moderate drought developed in the Lower Kobuk River Valley following continued drier-than-normal weather across large portions of the state this week. Abnormal dryness also expanded near the moderate drought. Low early summer rainfall amounts and only spotty recent rains led to abnormal dryness developing in portions of south-central Alaska. Cooler-than-normal temperatures occurred across most of Alaska this week, with most areas finishing the week 3-9 degrees below normal, with some locations finishing closer to normal.
Drier weather conditions continued this week on the leeward sides of the islands of Hawaii, though streamflow conditions and precipitation amounts are close enough to normal in most areas that conditions have not yet worsened. Abnormal dryness continued this week in parts of the north-central Big Island and in portions of central Maui. Temperatures in Hawaii this week were mostly either near normal or a degree or two above normal.
The big news item this week for the western North Pacific is Super Typhoon 09W (Bavi). It began as a tropical depression in the vicinity of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) early in the drought week, and underwent rapid intensification on July 3. It was accompanied by the emergence of a well-defined eye and central dense overcast. On July 4, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor upgraded Bavi to a (Category 5-equivalent) super typhoon, with estimated 1-minute winds of 165 mph. After a partial eyewall replacement cycle, Bavi’s sustained winds further increased to 180 mph. The eye of the super typhoon passed extremely close to the north side of Rota (in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) becoming one of the strongest typhoons to affect the island. By Monday, July 6, the storm center was located about 165 nautical miles northwest of Andersen AFB (Guam) as it slowly receded from the region. Guam International Airport measured 12.31 inches of rain as of 4pm (July 6), a new daily record.
The satellite-based precipitation estimate map (for the week ending 12z July 7, 2026) showcased well-defined elongated banding across the USAPI domain north of the equator, associated largely with what was Super Typhoon 09W (Bavi). The primary rain concentration associated with Bavi (<8 inches) extends from about 136E to 160E and is approximately bounded by 10N and 17N latitude. This encompasses a huge portion of the USAPI domain north of the equator. Over the South Pacific, the light rainfall amounts depicted on the 7-day IMERG imagery are quite low (<0.5-inch), compared to the ground-based observations that run from 2.72 inches to 4.60 inches. Given the lack of available data and other information regarding this situation it is difficult to say why this is the case, other than convective rainfall may have been very localized and happened to fall near and over the monitoring stations.
There are no dryness nor drought designations anywhere in the monitored locations across the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands.
It has been a very wet week for Guam and parts of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) thanks to Super Typhoon Bavi. According to available preliminary data, Dededo (the largest and most populous village on the island of Guam) received the lion’s share of the torrential rainfall, with 13.02 inches reported on July 6, and 17.22 inches for the weekly total. The Guam International Airport reported 12.64 inches of precipitation on July 6th alone, and 16.78 inches for the week. Each month since last August (2025) has registered “wet”, meaning the reception of at least 4-inches of rain (the minimum monthly amount needed to meet most water needs). Other available rain gauge data included Agat (5.87 inches, 5 days of data), Saipan (2.82 inches, 6 days of data), and Rota Airport (0.65-inch, 5 days). These rainfall amounts may be significantly underdone and are considered very preliminary, as some of the gauges may have been damaged during the passage of Bavi.
In the Republic of Palau, a “wet” week was observed, with both reporting stations exceeding the weekly minimum rainfall of 2 inches. WSO Palau (Airai) reported 3.20 inches (6 days of data), and Koror measured 2.06 inches of precipitation (6 days of data), according to xmACIS2 data.
Over the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), precipitation amounts ranged from a maximum of 5.63 inches (6 days of data) at Pohnpei to a minimum of 0.09-inch (5-days) at Woleai. Intermediate values included 2.12 inches at Chuuk, 1.95 inches at Lukunoch, 1.63 inches at Yap Island, 1.50 inches (5 days) at Kosrae, 0.84-inch (6 days) at Kapingamarangi, 0.44-inch (6 days) at North Fanif, and 0.42-inch (6 days) at Nukuoro. Therefore, only two stations (Pohnpei and Chuuk) surpassed the 2-inch minimum requirement for weekly rainfall. A number of other stations (Rumung, Gilman, Ulithi, Fananu, and Pingelap) did not have enough data this week to do a proper analysis.
Precipitation amounts across the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) ranged from 3.08 inches at Kwajalein down to 0.48-inch at Mili. Intermediate values included 2.51 inches of rain at Ailinglaplap, 1.23 inches at Wotje, 1.18 inches at Majuro, 0.89-inch at Utirik, and 0.57-inch at Jaluit. In terms of recent wetness, Kwajalein has been “wet” (8-inches or more for the month) for the last three consecutive months (April through June), Ailinglaplap has been “wet” since February 2026, Jaluit from January through May 2026, and with one exception Majuro has been wet every month since last August (2025). The exception was February 2026, when 6.72 inches of precipitation was recorded.
In the South Pacific, the three reporting sites on the island of Tutuila in American Samoa exceeded the 2-inch minimum weekly rainfall amount. Siufaga Ridge received the most precipitation this past drought week with 4.61 inches reported, Toa Ridge measured 2.97 inches, and Pago Pago came in with 2.72 inches of rain (with only 2 days of data available).
Looking Ahead
Through the evening of Monday, July 13, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center’s precipitation forecast shows mostly dry weather west of the Continental Divide, with rain amounts over 0.5 inches in southeast Arizona and in some areas near the southern New Mexico-Arizona state line. Mostly dry weather is also likely in the northern and southern Great Plains, though parts of the central Great Plains, especially in the southern half of Nebraska and northern half of Kansas, may receive rain amounts locally over an inch or higher. Rainfall amounts near or over an inch are expected in parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas, plus portions of Missouri. Heavier rain amounts ranging from 1.5-3 inches are forecast from southern Illinois eastward through southern Indiana, Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and parts of West Virginia. Isolated rainfall totals at or above 0.75 inches are possible from Iowa eastward through the lower Great Lakes, though most areas should stay drier. Primarily dry weather is forecast in New England, especially in the southern half of the region.
For July 14-18, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast favors drier-than-normal weather across the Great Lakes and central and northern Great Plains. Drier weather is also favored in far southern Florida. Wetter-than-normal weather is favored mostly across the Gulf Coast states and Carolinas, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, especially in southern Arizona. Hotter-than-normal weather is very likely across the northern Great Plains and West, and in the Florida Peninsula. Warmer-than-normal weather is also favored, though at lesser confidence, across most of the rest of the contiguous U.S., with a few exceptions. The forecast favors near-normal temperatures in southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico and in the eastern Great Lakes and most of the Northeast. Northern Maine is slightly favored to see cooler-than-normal temperatures.
The forecast in most of Alaska favors cooler-than-normal temperatures, except for the far northeast portion of the state and in the central and western Aleutian Islands, where temperatures near- and above-normal are favored, respectively. Above-normal precipitation is favored across most of Alaska, aside from a small part of northeast Alaska and the central Aleutian Islands.
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