Farmer Sentiment Rises Again in August as Future Expectations Improve

Farmer sentiment improved for the second month in a row, with the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index increasing from 126 points in July to 135 points in August (see Figure 1). Both subindices also increased; however, the Index of Current Conditions rose by only 1 point, while the Index of Future Expectations increased by 11 points (see Figure 2). For the first time since June 2025, a higher proportion of respondents expect their operation to be better off financially (28%) than worse off (24%) a year from now. Optimism regarding export prospects over the next five years also improved this month, reaching an index value of 140, the highest since last December. Higher input costs, chosen by 45% of respondents, remained the biggest concern. The August barometer survey was conducted among 402 farmers across the country from August 10 to 14, 2026.

The Farm Financial Performance Index increased from 90 at the start of the year to 103 in August, reflecting greater optimism among respondents about their financial prospects over the next 12 months. Despite this increase, the Farm Capital Investment Index dropped 5 points to 45.

This month’s survey included three questions about operator skills. The first question had respondents indicate the skill that generated the most return on investment on their farm. Production skills were selected by 29%, followed by financial management and analysis at 23%, strategic planning at 22%, selling products at 14%, and buying inputs at 11%.

The second question asked respondents which skill their farm needed the most improvement in. Strategic planning was selected by 28% of respondents, followed by selling products at 20%, buying inputs at 19%, financial management and analysis at 17%, and production at 16%. The third question asked respondents to indicate which skills they believed had the most potential for improvement using artificial intelligence. The top three choices, in order, were strategic planning (32%), financial management and analysis (28%), and production (18%).

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased by 8 points to 127 in August. Alternative investments, interest rates, and inflation were cited as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values. Periodically, the survey includes a question asking respondents to rate farmland as an investment. In August, 65% of respondents indicated that farmland was a good investment, 17% indicated that farmland was a medium investment, and 18% indicated that farmland was a poor investment.

Since July 2025, producers have been asked whether they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track.” After averaging 71% during the last six months of 2025 and 62% in the first quarter of 2026, the percentage of producers who said the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” has ranged from 51% to 57% since April, with 51% of respondents saying that the U.S. was heading in the right direction in August.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment increased again in August, with the largest improvement coming from the future expectations. The Index of Current Conditions increased by 1 point, while the Index of Future Expectations increased by 11 points. Respondents were more optimistic about their financial prospects and land values in the upcoming year and exports in the next five years, but were less confident about making new investments in machinery and buildings.

Despite the improvement in producer sentiment, important concerns remain. High input costs continue to be the biggest concern, followed by low crop and livestock prices and rising interest rates. Respondents were asked questions related to their farm’s key skills. Strategic planning was most frequently identified as the skill needing improvement. Interestingly, respondents also indicated strategic planning as the most likely skill that could be improved through the use of artificial intelligence (AI).

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn 23% Harvested, Soybeans 25% Harvested as of Oct. 4

OMAHA (DTN) -- The nation's corn and soybean harvests are both running behind the five-year average, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released Monday.

Sunshine, dry days and warm weather across much of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast should help dry soils and crops this week, though more rain and colder air could arrive next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn mature was pegged at 83%, consistent with the five-year average.

-- Harvest progress: NASS estimated that 23% of corn had been harvested nationally as of Oct. 4, 4 percentage points behind the five-year average of 27%. DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said a historically wet second half of September across the Midwest was evident in this week's numbers, with Iowa and Nebraska both well behind their normal early-October pace.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 54% of the crop remaining in fields was in good-to-excellent condition, 3 percentage points lower than the previous week's 57%. Eighteen percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, 1 percentage point above the previous week's 17%. Montgomery noted that Iowa and Nebraska also saw notable declines in corn crop ratings.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans dropping leaves were pegged at 85%, 2 percentage points behind the five-year average of 87%.

-- Harvest progress: NASS estimated that 25% of soybeans had been harvested as of Sunday, 8 percentage points behind the five-year average of 33%. Montgomery said soybean harvest progress was slow across the U.S. after a very wet past week, with Iowa only 5% harvested compared to 38% for the five-year average, and Nebraska showing a similar delay.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 57% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, 1 percentage point lower than the previous week's 58%. Montgomery also noted that conditions in both states declined due to excess moisture.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting was estimated at 36% complete nationally, 10 percentage points behind the five-year average of 46%. Montgomery said rainfall across the Southern Plains slowed winter wheat planting during the past week, with top-producing Kansas only 24% planted compared with a five-year average of 40%.

-- Crop development: Winter wheat emerged was estimated at 16%, 4 percentage points behind the five-year average 20%.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

A stretch of dry, warm weather this week should give producers an opportunity to get into fields, but a potential tropical storm and another system could bring heavy rain next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"After an extremely wet couple of weeks that kept a lot of producers out of their fields, we've got a much better window of weather this week," Baranick said. "The question is, will it be enough to have most of the fields dry out? Or is it going to take more than a week? We'll have a lot of sunshine, dry days, and warm weather in much of the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast that should help dry soils and crops out, but there are some things lurking for next week. We are likely to see a tropical storm develop in the Gulf this week. The current forecast is to bring that through southeastern areas of the country this weekend and into next week, which could cause some flooding if it does. And a system will be moving into the Northern Plains this weekend. The forecast is all over the place on how that system will move and develop going into next week, which is hard to speculate on what may occur, but we could see some more areas of heavy rain as the system moves through next week and a round of colder air. So, producers may decide to push it this week if they feel that next week could give them some issues.

"Otherwise, soils are generally wet across much of the winter wheat growing areas that should help for more planting and good establishment. However, drought still exists in a lot of these same areas, even after the good rains of the last couple of weeks. So, this week of dryness isn't exactly what producers want to see. They are going to need more rainfall before we get into winter."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn mature	83	72	NA	83
Corn harvested	23	18	NA	27
Soybeans dropping leaves	85	75	NA	87
Soybeans harvested	25	17	NA	33
Winter wheat planted	36	27	NA	46
Winter wheat emerged	16	8	NA	20
Cotton bolls opening	74	70	NA	76
Cotton harvested	23	17	NA	21
Sorghum coloring	96	93	NA	98
Sorghum mature	72	67	NA	75
Sorghum harvested	32	29	NA	38
Rice harvested	86	80	NA	79
Sugarbeets harvested	19	16	NA	22
Sunflowers harvested	6	2	NA	5
Peanuts harvested	22	12	NA	23

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	VP	P	F	G	E
Corn
This Week	6	12	28	42	12
Prev Week	6	11	26	44	13
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	5	10	26	46	13
Soybeans
This Week	4	10	29	46	11
Prev Week	4	9	29	47	11
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	4	10	28	47	11
Peanuts
This Week	1	9	33	50	7
Prev Week	2	8	32	51	7
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	2	8	32	51	7
Cotton
This Week	12	25	30	27	6
Prev Week	12	23	30	29	6
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	12	17	30	34	6

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/6)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/5)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 8 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	3708567 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF