This Week's Drought Summary (2/19)

After a few warm and dry weeks, heavy precipitation returned to the West Coast States this past week; however, the heaviest amounts fell on California, which is almost completely free of dryness and drought. At least 1.5 inches fell on a large part of the state including much of the western tier, the higher elevations, and the northern Valleys. Much larger amounts fell on isolated higher-elevation and orographically-favored locations, with a few spots recording amounts approaching 10 inches (liquid-equivalent). Several feet of snow has piled up on a few spots across the Sierra Nevada, but overall the snowpack in this area remains significantly below normal. Other areas from northwestern California northward through the Cascades and points west also recorded significant amounts of precipitation, ranging from 0.5 to locally 3.0 inches. Similar amounts were more scattered across the rest of the interior West, with the largest totals confined to the highest elevations. As of early Tuesday Feb 17, this precipitation has not significantly boosted snowpack in some areas with less than normal amounts, specifically much of the Cascades, south-central Idaho, Scattered locations across western Wyoming, much of west-central and southwestern Colorado, central sections of Utah and Nevada, and the southernmost Rockies.

Farther east, moderate precipitation was fairly widespread over approximately the southeastern quarter of the contiguous states, east of the High Plains and from the central Great Plains, lower Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic region southward. Heavier amounts fell on scattered areas across the east-central and southeastern Great Plains, parts of the adjacent lower Mississippi Valley, and a few narrow swaths across the western Florida Panhandle and parts of the northern Peninsula. To the north, scattered light amounts with isolated moderate totals were recorded in upstate New York and parts of New England. Other areas across the High Plains and the northeastern quarter of the contiguous states reported little or no precipitation.

Some areas of improvement were introduced based either on this past week’s precipitation or a re-assessment of the effects from earlier storms. Specifically, improvements were introduced in central Idaho, the southwestern High Plains, and parts of the Tennessee, lower Ohio, and middle Mississippi Valleys. There was more deterioration than improvement overall, however, including areas scattered across the Eastern Seaboard, lower Mississippi Valley, Deep South, Upper Midwest, northern High Plains, and far southern Texas. Hawaii experienced areas of improvement for the second consecutive week while Alaska and most dry areas in Puerto Rico remained unchanged.

Northeast

Pennsylvania, southern New England, and northwestern Maine recorded very little precipitation while light to isolated moderate amounts (up to an inch) dampened upstate New York, northern New England, and eastern Maine. On the southern end of the region, moderate amounts fell on West Virginia and Maryland, with widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inch. The precipitation was insufficient to justify any areas of improvement, so drought in the Northeast Region generally remained the same with a few areas of deterioration, particularly in central and eastern Pennsylvania, adjacent New Jersey, and southern New England. This includes the introduction of an area of extreme drought (D3) in northern New Jersey. Precipitation totaled over the last 60 and 90 days is under half of normal in a large swaths from the Maryland Panhandle through southern and into east-central Pennsylvania, along with scattered areas across New England and southern New York.

Southeast

Compared to the Northeast, light to moderate precipitation was far more widespread, especially from southern Virginia through the central Carolinas, much of Georgia, and northern Florida, where many locations reported over 0.5 inch. A few areas of in the central Carolinas and isolated patches in the southern Appalachians, central Georgia, and the northern half of Florida reported 1.5 to 2.0 inches, but given recent deficits, none of these areas received enough to substantially change the intensity of extant dryness and drought. In drier areas – especially the southern half of the Florida Peninsula – dryness and drought expanded and intensified. One-category deterioration was brought into the southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills, parts of the eastern Carolinas, central Georgia, and several patches across Florida. This has resulted in several large swaths of extreme drought (D3) from western South Carolina southward, with the largest areas extending from southern Georgia into central Florida, and across the southern Florida Peninsula. During the last 3 months, precipitation totals were 6 to 12 inches less than normal over southwestern North Carolina and adjacent areas, with 4 to 8 inch deficits common across northern Georgia and much of the rest of the western Carolinas. Farther south, scattered locations across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula reported less than one-quarter of normal amounts for the last 90 days.

South

Heavy precipitation (3 to locally 5 inches) dropped on a swath through central Arkansas while 1.5 to locally 3.0 inches were recorded from the lower Red River (south) Valley through the central tier of Arkansas into much of western Tennessee. Moderate to locally heavy amounts were observed over much of the west side of the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of eastern Texas. Amounts of several tenths of an inch to locally around an inch were reported across a large part of central and north-central Texas, most of Oklahoma east of the Panhandle, much of Mississippi and western Alabama, and eastern sections of Tennessee. Little or no precipitation was reported across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, western Texas, and Deep South Texas. This pattern supported improvement across the western half of Tennessee and smaller areas of Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi, along with scattered spots across southern Oklahoma. Deterioration was fairly common in areas that missed most of the week’s precipitation, primarily in the lower Mississippi Valley, the immediate ArkLaTex region, and Deep South Texas. Intensifying dryness in the latter area prompted the introduction of exceptional drought (D4) in parts of Jim Hogg and Brooks Counties. D4 already existed in part of interior northeastern Arkansas and the southernmost reaches of the Texas Big Bend. Meanwhile, extreme drought (D3) expanded to cover most of south-central and Deep South Texas, parts of east-central Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi, portions of southern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas, most of northeastern Arkansas, and a few smaller scattered areas in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. During the past 90 days, fewer than 2 inches of precipitation have fallen on western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and the southwestern tier of Texas from the Big Bend into much of Deep South Texas.

Midwest

Central and northern portions of the Midwest were almost precipitation-free last week, prompting some deterioration across the Upper Midwest from northern Illinois across Iowa into southern Minnesota. Farther south, light to moderate amounts (up to an inch) fell on the middle and lower Ohio Valley and the adjacent Mississippi Valley, with heavier totals (1.5 to locally 3.0 inches) reported across central and southern Missouri. This pattern led to improvements in a swath from central and southern Missouri through southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

High Plains

Moderate to locally heavy precipitation fell on part of eastern Kansas, and scattered light to moderate amounts fell on the rest of the southern tier of the Region. Farther north, however, scant precipitation led to large areas of degradation across a large proportion of Wyoming and central through eastern Montana, with more limited deterioration introduced across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. This resulted in moderate drought or worse covering a swath across most of Nebraska and adjacent areas westward through most of Wyoming and the northern, central, and western sections of Colorado. Severe drought (D2) or worse is widespread from western Nebraska across the southern tier of Wyoming through northern and central parts of Colorado.

West

Heavy precipitation was fairly widespread across California, which is currently almost completely devoid of any degree of dryness or drought. Elsewhere, widespread deterioration was introduced across central and eastern Montana, leaving most of the state entrenched in abnormal dryness to severe drought (D0 to D2), with an area of extreme drought in parts of north-central Montana. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made as light to moderate precipitation fell on a large part of the areas of dryness and drought – enough to preclude widespread deterioration, but not sufficient to justify much improvement. Only a few parts of central and south-central New Mexico were improved, primarily from the effects of precipitation prior to last week. Severe to extree drought (D2-D3) now extends across most of the western half of New Mexico, adjacent4 Arizona, central and northern Utah, parts of northern and southwestern Idaho, and parts of Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades.

Caribbean

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall fell on relatively large patches across the state, but only the eastern tier of the interior D0 area recorded enough precipitation to end D0 conditions. Most D0 areas were unchanged from last week.

After a wet week, conditions dried out across the U.S. Virgin Islands, with all islands reporting below-normal weekly precipitation totals. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.59 inches of rain. Despite the lower total, St. John remains free of drought and abnormal dryness. Groundwater levels at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well were 11.97 ft below land surface on February 17. Analysis shows a steady decline since October 19, when the level was 7.56 ft, though there has been a slight recovery this month compared to the 12.97 ft reported on February 2. Over the past year, the water level has dropped approximately 4.5 ft (from 7.46 ft on February 17, 2025). Nearly all SPI timescales indicate wet conditions—especially the 1-month value—though the 6-month SPI showed some dryness. No measurable precipitation was reported on St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen Airport) this week, but the island remains free of drought and abnormal dryness due to above-normal rainfall in previous weeks. The depth to water at the Adventure 28 Well was 19.72 ft below land surface on February 17. Groundwater analysis shows a steady decrease of 5.8 ft since May 27, 2025 (when the level was 13.91 ft), and a drop of 3.3 ft compared to this time last year (16.39 ft on February 17, 2025). The 1-, 3-, and 6-month SPI values confirm wet conditions on the island, while longer timescales show drier signals. On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport reported a rainfall total of 0.73 inches. The depth to water at the Grade School 3 well was 6.24 ft below land surface on February 17. This is down 4.19 ft from the 365-day maximum of 2.05 ft recorded on October 19, 2025. However, it is only 0.66 ft lower than the water level from one year ago (5.58 ft on February 17, 2025). SPI values were mixed, showing wetter conditions at the 1-month timescale but dry conditions at the 3-month timescale (other timescales were unavailable). Consequently, St. Thomas remains in short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) this week.

Pacific

Conditions across Alaska were unchanged this week, with small areas of moderate drought noted in part of west-central and interior southwestern Alaska while D0 covered considerably larger areas from the lower northwestern part of the state through south-central locations, including part of the Anchorage area.

Precipitation amounts exceeded 3 inches at a few locations across Oahu and some of the windward and higher elevations elsewhere. Other locations recorded near or somewhat below normal amounts, but the excessive precipitation that affected numerous locations the prior week prompted additional improvements over portions of the state. Specifically, additional1-category improvements were introduced along much of the northeastern tier of the Big Island, northeastern and western areas of Maui, and smaller patches of central Maui, eastern Molokai, and southern Oahu. This included the removal of any dryness or drought designation in small patches across northeastern sections of both Maui and the Big Island, marking the first time since late March that any part of Maui has emerged from dryness, and the first time since late August in the Big Island.

Conditions were dry over American Samoa this week. Pago Pago reported a weekly rainfall total of 0.40 inches, while Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge reported 0.26 and 0.37 inches, respectively, with several days missing from the records.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. The Koror COOP site reported a weekly rainfall total of 2.10 inches (with two days missing) and a month-to-date total of 6.30 inches as of February 15.

Conditions were drier than normal over the Mariana Islands this week. Rota, Guam, Tinian, and Saipan reported weekly rainfall totals of 0.87, 0.59, 0.42, and 0.09 inches, respectively. Although these amounts were below the island’s one-inch minimum threshold to meet water needs, the Marianas remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to wet conditions in previous weeks.

Conditions were mixed across the Federated States of Micronesia this week. Nukuoro and Pohnpei reported weekly rainfall amounts of 5.24 inches and 2.35 inches, respectively, and both locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness. Several locations, including Chuuk (1.15 inches), Woleai (1.09 inches), Kosrae (1.04 inches), and Lukunoch (0.51 inches), reported rainfall totals (each with 1 day missing) below the two-inch minimum threshold needed for water needs; however, these locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to previously wet conditions. Kapingamarangi reported 2.80 inches this week but remained in short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) due to precipitation deficits from previous dry weeks. Pingelap reported only 0.02 inches of rainfall and remains in short-term moderate drought (D1-S). Data for Fananu and Ulithi were insufficient to make any assessments this week.

Dry conditions prevailed across most of the Republic of the Marshall Islands this week, as all islands reported weekly rainfall totals below the minimum two-inch threshold for water needs. Despite the low totals (and with some locations missing a day of data), Jaluit (1.19 inches), Ailinglapalap (0.54 inches), Kwajalein (0.28 inches), Mili (0.16 inches), and Majuro (no reported rainfall) remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to above-normal precipitation received in previous weeks. Based on recent precipitation and rainfall totals from previous weeks and months, Utirik reported 1.18 inches this week and remained in short-term severe drought (D2-S). Meanwhile, conditions continued to deteriorate over Wotje, which reported only 0.12 inches for the week and a month-to-date rainfall total of 1.34 inches. For these reasons, Wotje was degraded to short-term severe drought (D2-S) this week.

Looking Ahead

The heaviest precipitation over the next few days is forecast along and near part of the West Coast, with at least 2 inches expected across northwestern California, the southern Cascades, and the central and northern Sierra Nevada. Up to 7 inches may fall in isolated higher elevations, most or all of which would be snow. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy amounts (0.5 to 2.0 inches) are forecast across Washington and Oregon from the Cascades westward. Similar amounts are forecast for the northern Great Lakes, and most locations from the Deep South through central New England, with lesser amounts expected over much of the central and northern Carolinas. There is a lot of uncertainty in this area, depending on the development and track of an East Coast storm system that could affect the mid-Atlantic and lower Northeast over the weekend. Light to moderate totals are anticipated over a large part of the interior West, including the Great Basin, much of the northern Intermountain West, and the higher elevations across the Rockies. Several tenths of an inch are possible across the lower Great Lakes, middle and lower Ohio Valley, and the east side of the lower Mississippi Valley. Little or no precipitation is expected across the northern and southern Plains, southern Florida, and northern Maine. Above-normal temperatures are expected from the Southwest through most of the Plains, with many locations expected to average 5 to 11 deg. F above normal. In contrast, subnormal temperatures are forecast in the northernmost Plains, where daily highs could average as much as 9 deg. F below normal. Meanwhile, 5-day average anomalies are expected to range from -2 to -5 deg. F across northern California as well as the Ohio Valley and many locations farther east.

The 6- to 10-day outlook for February 24-28 depicts increased chances for below-normal precipitation across much of the southern tier of the contiguous U.S., from the extreme southern Rockies through the central Gulf Coast and most of Florida. Chances for abnormal dryness exceed 40 percent across most of Texas and some adjacent areas. Farther north, heavier than normal precipitation is at least nominally favored from the mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachians, central Plains, and Desert Southwest northward to the Canadian border. Chances for unusually unsettled weather exceed 60 percent across central and northern California, and top 50 percent central California northward across western Washington and Oregon, as well as the middle and lower Ohio Valley. In Alaska, drier than normal conditions are favored along western parts of the state while surplus amounts are more likely over eastern areas. Across Hawaii, above-normal amounts are marginally favored statewide. Meanwhile, warmer than normal weather is expected to dominate the contiguous 48 states from the Appalachians to the Intermountain West, with chances for significantly warmer than normal conditions topping 80 percent in western Texas. Areas somewhat favoring below-normal temperatures are restricted to the West Coast west of the Cascades, and over much of the Florida Peninsula. Considerably higher chances for unusually cold weather cover most of Alaska, reaching above 70 percent in southwestern parts of the state. In contrast, warmer than normal conditions are somewhat favored across Hawaii, especially across Kauai, Oahu, and the southern Big Island.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/17)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/16)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 58 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1681924 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (2/12)

The Lower 48 states and Alaska only saw degradations this week. There was a strong east-to-west temperature gradient again this week, with below-normal temperatures across much of the East and above-normal temperatures across the West. Another week of localized precipitation that missed large portions of the country led to expanding precipitation deficits. Degradations were also scattered across the West, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies, including portions of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado. Although some mountain snow fell, critically low snowpack with snow-water equivalent levels below the 15th percentile continues to dominate much of the region and support ongoing drought expansion. Across the High Plains and into the western Midwest, one-class degradations followed another mostly dry week. In the Northeast, despite colder-than-normal temperatures, a continued lack of meaningful precipitation contributed to worsening conditions in parts of Pennsylvania and southern New England. In the South, from the eastern southern Plains of Oklahoma and Texas eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the western Carolinas. Despite scattered precipitation in some locations, short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow, with drying soils and low streamflows supporting intensification. In southern Georgia and Florida, fire danger continues to rise, with parts of Florida reporting Keetch-Byram Drought Index values between 500 and 700.

In Hawaii, strong trade winds brought heavy precipitation and wind to the windward slopes of Molokai, Maui and the Big Island, where 4 to 10 inches of rain fell at lower elevations and snow at higher elevations, supporting one-class improvements in those areas.

Northeast

Precipitation was generally light across the region, with many areas receiving below-normal amounts outside of localized lake-effect snow. Short-term precipitation deficits over the past 30 to 60 days are 2 to 6 inches below normal across parts of Pennsylvania, New York and New England, especially in southern and coastal areas. Temperatures averaged 5 to 15 degrees below normal, limiting potentially beneficial snowmelt in northern New York and northern New England. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in eastern Pennsylvania and central New York. In Massachusetts, moderate drought (D1) expanded westward across central portions of the state and into southeastern areas where longer-term precipitation deficits and low groundwater persist. In northeastern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island and adjacent portions of south-central Massachusetts, abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced to reflect continued streamflow, groundwater concerns and ongoing precipitation deficits.

Southeast

Precipitation across the Southeast was generally light and uneven during the past week. Most areas received less than 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Large portions of Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and north Florida recorded below 25 percent of normal precipitation for the week. Narrow bands of heavier rainfall brought localized 1 to 2 inch totals across parts of the central Gulf Coast and portions of the eastern Carolinas. Degradations across the region were driven by short- to medium-term precipitation deficits continuing to grow. Soil moisture remains below the 10th percentile across large portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, with some areas below the 5th percentile. Streamflows across parts of Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama remain in the single digits, and reservoir levels in portions of the Carolinas continue to run below seasonal averages. Moderate drought (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in parts of Georgia, the South Carolina Upstate and portions of North Carolina where there are longer-term deficits, low streamflows and very low soil moisture percentiles.

Across Florida, widespread degradations were made as rainfall was scattered and light, with most areas receiving less than 0.5 inches. Extreme drought (D3) expanded across portions of north and south Florida, while moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across the central panhandle. Soil moisture percentiles remain below the 10th percentile across much of the state and below the 5th percentile in parts of central and southern Florida. Keetch-Byram Drought Index values range from 600 to above 700 in several areas, showing elevated to extreme fire potential. Wildfire activity increased during the week, and multiple water management districts, including the South Florida Water Management District, have issued water shortage advisories or warnings due to declining groundwater and surface water levels.

South

Drought conditions across the South continued to deteriorate this week, as much of the region received little to no meaningful precipitation. Most areas recorded below 50 percent of normal rainfall, with many locations under 25 percent of normal. Portions of middle and northeastern Tennessee received 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation, but amounts were insufficient to offset ongoing 30- to 90-day precipitation deficits. Degradations occurred across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley as short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow across Louisiana, Arkansas and portions of Texas and Oklahoma, with many areas 2 to 6 inches below normal over the past few months. Soil moisture percentiles remain below normal across much of the region and are particularly low in central Louisiana, southern Arkansas and parts of western Oklahoma and South Texas. Streamflows in several basins continue to run below seasonal averages, with some gauges in low percentiles following weeks of limited recharge.

In Deep South Texas, long-term dryness continues to intensify. From August 14, 2025, through February 10, 2026, Rio Grande City ranks as the fifth warmest and third driest on record dating back to 1928, while McCook ranks as the second warmest and sixth driest since 1942 according to NWS and NOAA. A nearby Texas Mesonet site near Hebbronville recorded just 3.81 inches over the past 180 days, and another Mesonet site along the Starr and Jim Hogg County line recorded 11.5 inches, with only 0.33 inches falling during December and January combined. Persistent six-month precipitation deficits and continued warmth reinforced long-term hydrologic stress across the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Midwest

It was another dry week across the Midwest, receiving little to no precipitation while temperatures remained below normal. Snow cover continues across the northern part and portions of the Great Lakes, keeping soils frozen. While most of the Midwest was unchanged this week, widespread degradations were made across portions of Illinois and Missouri where 3-to-6-month precipitation deficits grew, with low streamflows and below-normal groundwater levels. In central and southern Illinois, water table levels remain well below the 10th percentile at many monitoring sites, and streams are running near or below seasonal norms. Similar short- to mid-term precipitation deficits and declining streamflows supported expansion of dryness across parts of Missouri, including northwestern, south-central and southeastern areas, with additional intensification near the Missouri-Arkansas border where longer-term deficits continue to grow. Farther north and west, localized expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) occurred in portions of Minnesota and Iowa where recent weather systems largely missed and short-term soil moisture percentiles show drying.

High Plains

The High Plains saw little to no meaningful precipitation this week, with most of the region receiving less than 25 percent of normal and many locations at or below 5 percent of normal precipitation. Any snowfall was light and offered minimal liquid-equivalent benefit. In eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado, precipitation deficits continue to deepen with soil moisture percentiles declining, and recent above-normal temperatures led to drying where snow cover is limited. This led to expansion of moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into the southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle and the western Nebraska Sandhills. Similarly, growing short- to medium-term precipitation deficits, below-normal soil moisture percentiles and elevated evaporative demand led to the introduction of extreme drought (D3) to Nebraska’s Panhandle. Eastern Nebraska also saw the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) as the lack of precipitation has led to drying conditions. Across Kansas, degradations occurred primarily in the northwest, south and along the Missouri border in eastern Kansas following another dry week which, like the rest of the region, added to the growing precipitation deficits and drying soil moisture.

West

Precipitation across the West this week was light and uneven. Most low-elevation areas in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and western Colorado received little to no measurable liquid precipitation, with seven-day totals generally below 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Mountain snow did fall in portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, but accumulations were locally light and patchy. Snowpack and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) percentiles remain well below normal at many SNOTEL sites: much of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado show SWE values in the lowest 15th percentile, with numerous locations in the single digits for this time of year.

Temperatures were above normal across broad areas of the interior West, especially in the Great Basin, central and eastern Wyoming, and northern Colorado, where daytime highs ran 5 to 15 degrees above average at times. These warmer temperatures limited snow accumulation in some basins and contributed to surface drying where snow cover was sparse or absent.

Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated precipitation helped maintain existing conditions in parts of western Washington, Oregon and northern California. However, low SWE percentiles and expanding short- to mid-term precipitation deficits led to the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and localized moderate drought (D1) in Washington. Despite seeing precipitation this week, areas of Montana still saw degradations where short- to mid-term precipitation deficits, low soil moisture percentiles and poor snowpack continue to be of concern. Across Utah, Nevada and western Colorado, persistent 2 to 4 month precipitation deficits combined with declining soil moisture and very low SWE percentiles (snow drought) led to further degradations. Many SNOTEL sites in the central Rockies and Great Basin continue to report levels below the 10th percentile for snowpack, with Colorado experiencing its worst snowpack-to-date on record, according to Denver Water and 9NEWS.

Caribbean

Drought conditions across Puerto Rico remained unchanged this week. Another cold front moved across the island, bringing beneficial rainfall to much of Puerto Rico. Many locations received near- to above-normal precipitation, and short-term rainfall deficits over the past 30 to 60 days have largely been erased.

Despite the recent rainfall, two areas of abnormal dryness (D0) were maintained. Lago Cidra remains at observational levels, and USGS-monitored wells in parts of southern Puerto Rico continue to range from observational to critical levels.

On St. Croix, most locations were fairly wet again this week. According to CoCoRaHs observations, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.66 inches in west-central St. Croix to 3.49 in the east. At East Hill, 2.41 inches of rain were observed. Precipitation anomalies over the last few months out to a year are mostly neutral or positive now. Depth to water at the well-monitoring site has not significantly risen, though the recent drop in well levels appears to have been halted in the last 10 days or so. Given the wetter weather from the past few weeks and the making up of short- and long-term rainfall deficits, conditions have improved to normal on St. Croix. On St. John, reported rainfall amounts ranged from 1.45 to 2.55 inches. Depth-to-water at the Susannaberg Well came up by a little over a foot this week. Rainfall anomalies from the past few months to year are now mostly near or above normal. Given the improved well level and alleviated rainfall deficits, conditions have improved to normal on St. John. On St. Thomas, reported rainfall amounts ranged from 1.42 to 2.17 inches this week. The last month has had well-above-normal rainfall, though the last three months are still drier than normal. Water levels have also risen in the last week by 2-3 feet at the Grade School 3 well. Given the recent rainfall and improved groundwater conditions, but remaining rainfall deficits at the three-month mark, conditions on St. Thomas were improved to short-term abnormal dryness.

Pacific

Conditions worsened across parts of southern Alaska this week. Little to no snowfall was observed across portions of the upper Kuskokwim River valley, where precipitation during the past week was minimal, and many locations received well below-normal amounts. As a result, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded northeastward in the upper Kuskokwim River valley.

Farther south, a small area of moderate drought (D1) was introduced southwest of McGrath. Recent ERA5-Land snow water equivalent (SWE) anomaly data show continued deficits in this area, with snowpack well below seasonal expectations. While temperatures were mixed across the region, the lack of recent snowfall combined with below-normal SWE supported the targeted degradation.

Hawaii experienced a very wet and windy period this week, driven by persistent strong trade winds that brought rainfall along windward slopes. Molokai, Maui and the Big Island received the highest totals, with widespread 4 to 10 inches of rain and isolated amounts near 15 inches at lower elevations according to NOAA/NSSL MRMS, while heavy snow fell at the highest elevations of the Big Island. Rainfall amounts exceeded 30 inches at Laupahoehoe on the Big Island, with 23.22 inches at Waikamoi on Maui.

As a result, one-category improvements were made along the windward sides of the islands, where repeated rainfall (and high-elevation snow) supported short-term hydrologic recovery. Localized impacts from saturated soils, including a few landslides and flooding, were reported, while leeward areas remained largely unchanged due to continued trade-wind rainfall shadowing.

American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Pago Pago reported at least 1.31 inches of rainfall this week, while at least 0.79 inches were reported at Siufaga Ridge and 1.07 inches were reported at Toa Ridge.

At least 1.6 inches of rainfall were reported this week at Koror, with several days of data missing. Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, as all four monitored islands received sufficient rainfall. Guam reported 3.84 inches of rain, Rota reported 1.92 inches of rain, Tinian reported 2.29 inches of rain and Saipan reported 1.83 inches.

Short-term abnormal dryness developed in Yap this week, where 1.69 inches of rain fell, marking the fourth consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rainfall. Given that early January was wetter, though, conditions are likely not yet close to moderate or worse drought. Woleai remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, where 1.06 inches of rain fell this week, following 3.02 inches last week. Chuuk remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 2.48 inches of rain fell this week. Lukunor also remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 1.73 inches of rain fell this week. Given a fairly dry last three weeks there, conditions are likely approaching abnormal dryness. Conditions remained normal in Nukuoro, where 4.81 inches of rain were reported this week. Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Kapingamarangi this week, though conditions have likely improved some given 2.39 inches of rain that fell there this week. Normal conditions continued in Pohnpei, where 4.74 inches of rain were reported. Short-term moderate drought continued this week on Pingelap, where only 0.44 inches of rain were reported. Conditions in Kosrae remained normal, where 3.11 inches of rain were reported. No Drought Monitor depictions were made in Fananu or Ulithi due to a lack of data availability.

Conditions remained normal in Kwajalein this week, where 1.8 inches of rain were reported. Conditions also remained normal in Ailinglaplap, where 3.59 inches of rain fell this week after a couple drier prior weeks. In Jaluit, conditions remained normal this week after 2.8 inches of rain fell. Conditions in Utirik degraded to severe short-term drought, where no rain was reported this week. Short-term moderate drought also continued on Wotje, where only 1.22 inches of rain have fallen to start February. Mili reported 3.66 inches of rain this week, and conditions remained normal there. Conditions also remained normal in Majuro, where 1.89 inches of rain fell this week.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days (Feb. 12–17), a widespread and active precipitation pattern is forecast across much of the western and southern U.S. The heaviest totals are expected from eastern Texas into Arkansas, where widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast, with locally higher totals possible. Additional areas of 1 to 3 inches are expected across much of the lower Mississippi Valley, central Gulf Coast, and into portions of the Southeast. Farther west, widespread precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, and into the central and northern Rockies, where liquid-equivalent totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts in favored terrain. Lighter but still meaningful precipitation is forecast across portions of the Midwest and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In contrast, much of the northern Plains is expected to remain relatively dry during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook (Feb. 17–21) favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., including the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast. The strongest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are centered over the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. Alaska favors below-normal temperatures across much of the mainland, while Hawaii is favored to see above-normal temperatures.

The CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook (Feb. 17–21) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western United States, including California, the Great Basin, and the northern and central Rockies. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier from southern Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast and into Florida. Much of the central United States, including portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, is favored to see near-normal precipitation during this period.