This Week's Drought Summary (3/26)

This week, extreme weather events across the United States painted a starkly contrasting picture of drought development and relief. In the West and Plains, a persistent heat dome drove temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal, shattering early-season records and significantly increasing evaporative demand. This intense heat, combined with high winds and pre-existing dryness, threatened to rapidly deplete topsoil moisture and fueled explosive, landscape-altering wildfires—most notably the historic Morrill Fire in Nebraska that consumed over 800,000 acres. Ultimately, the combination of soaring temperatures and below-normal precipitation resulted in the expansion of drought and abnormal dryness across portions of the West, Great Plains, and parts of the Southeast.

Conversely, other regions experienced abrupt and volatile moisture influxes that mitigated dry conditions but introduced localized to severe flooding. In the Pacific Northwest, an atmospheric river stalled over Washington, bringing heavy rain and significant snowmelt. Further east, a powerful winter storm delivered a massive precipitation boost in the form of a late-season blizzard, dropping over 50 inches of snow across parts of the Upper Midwest and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. The most extreme precipitation of the week occurred over the Hawaiian Islands, where a stalled Kona low dumped unprecedented, historic rainfall, resulting in excessive flooding, widespread landslides, and infrastructure damage. Overall, above-normal precipitation resulted in improvements to drought and abnormal dryness across parts of the Midwest, Northeast, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

Northeast

Precipitation fell across much of the Northeast this week, with highly variable totals ranging from 0.25 to 3 inches. Beneficial rainfall—reaching 150% to 300% of normal for the week—helped alleviate ongoing dry conditions across parts of Pennsylvania, New York, and southern New England (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). This above-average moisture allowed for the reduction of severe drought (D2) in northern New Jersey and along the Pennsylvania-Maryland border. Moderate drought (D1) was trimmed in parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and Massachusetts, while abnormal dryness (D0) improved across New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. Temperatures were sharply divided, running up to 10 degrees F below normal in northern areas like New York and Vermont, while southern portions of the region, such as Maryland, experienced departures up to 10 degrees F above normal.

Southeast

Much of the Southeast experienced above-normal temperatures this week, with the exception of Florida and parts of Georgia, which remained cooler than average. Precipitation was scarce, with most of the region reporting little to no rainfall; month-to-date totals from central North Carolina down to northern Florida sit at a dismal 25% of normal or less. This combination of dry weather and elevated temperatures exacerbated short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow, and soil moisture deficits. Consequently, exceptional drought (D4) expanded from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Extreme drought (D3) grew in south-central North Carolina, northern and southern Georgia, western Florida, and pushed into southern South Carolina. Severe drought (D2) expanded in northwest and southeast North Carolina, and moderate drought (D1) saw a slight increase in central South Carolina. Conversely, isolated pockets of beneficial rain led to minor localized improvements, trimming severe drought to moderate drought and abnormal dryness in small parts of western Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

South

Hot and dry conditions dominated the South this week, driving widespread drought degradation. Temperatures soared 5 to 20 degrees F above normal across the vast majority of the region. This heat was coupled with persistent dryness, as month-to-date rainfall deficits grew to 1 to 3 inches below average (representing only 5% to 50% of normal). Deteriorating short- and long-term indicators justified the introduction and expansion of exceptional drought (D4) in southern Texas and northern Arkansas. Extreme drought (D3) was introduced in the Oklahoma Panhandle and expanded across central Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, southern Texas, and Louisiana. Additionally, severe drought (D2) worsened across parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee, while moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in Texas, Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.

Midwest

Unseasonable warmth enveloped most of the Midwest, with temperature departures ranging from 5 to 20 degrees F above normal; the greatest anomalies were centered over western Illinois and southern Missouri. Conversely, parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota observed below-normal temperatures. Precipitation was highly variable: northern and eastern areas (including much of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, northern Michigan, and Minnesota) received 0.5 inches or more, with some locations seeing 150% to 300% of normal weekly rainfall. This above-average moisture and corresponding improvements in streamflow and soil moisture led to the reduction of extreme drought (D3) and severe drought (D2) in Indiana and Ohio, alongside D2 improvements in Illinois. Moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) were also trimmed across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and northern Michigan. However, the southern half of the region largely missed out on precipitation, receiving as little as 5% of normal rainfall. Growing deficits and degrading conditions in these southern areas led to the expansion of moderate drought (D1) in parts of Iowa and Missouri, as well as an increase in abnormal dryness (D0) in northeast Ohio.

High Plains

Intense, unseasonable warmth gripped the High Plains, with temperatures soaring up to 25 degrees F above normal, peaking in parts of Wyoming and Colorado. Precipitation was nearly non-existent, particularly across the southern half of the region. This severe, persistent dryness, coupled with rapidly deteriorating drought indicators, forced widespread expansion and intensification of drought categories. Exceptional drought (D4) expanded in northwest Colorado, while extreme drought (D3) grew across Colorado, southern Wyoming, and southern Nebraska. Severe drought (D2) pushed further into central and northern Wyoming, western and southern Colorado, and advanced from Nebraska into South Dakota. Moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) also expanded broadly across Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. No drought improvements were made in the High Plains this week.

West

Anomalous warmth dominated the West, with nearly the much region seeing temperatures 15 to 25 degrees F above normal. Precipitation was largely absent, save for beneficial moisture in parts of Washington and Montana. This localized precipitation allowed for the reduction of severe drought (D2) in central Montana and abnormal dryness (D0) in western Washington. Elsewhere, the combination of soaring temperatures, lacking precipitation, and declining soil moisture and streamflow data resulted in broad drought degradation. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in southern Idaho, central and northeastern Utah, and northwest New Mexico. Severe drought (D2) increased in coverage across Oregon, southern Idaho, southern Montana, southern and eastern Utah, southern and eastern Arizona, and New Mexico. Finally, abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in eastern Oregon and central and southern California.

Caribbean

Storms delivered between 0.5 and 3 inches of rainfall across a large portion of Puerto Rico this week. This beneficial moisture led to the complete removal of abnormal dryness (D0) from the southern part of the island.

The U.S. Virgin Islands experienced showery weather during the drought-monitoring period ending the morning of March 24, with the heaviest rain (locally more than 2 inches) falling on St. Thomas. Most locations on St. John and St. Croix received less than an inch of rain. Still, Standardized Precipitation Index values throughout the territory indicate that neither drought nor abnormal dryness is present. In response to heavier rain on St. Thomas, depth to water at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grade School 3 well improved (decreased) more than 3.3 feet during the 72-hour period ending at 9 am AST on March 25.

Pacific

Temperatures were broadly below normal across Alaska this week, with departures plunging 5 to 25 degrees F below average. Precipitation was below normal for much of the state, though parts of the Panhandle observed wetter-than-normal conditions. Due to a continued decrease in snow water equivalent, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded across southwest Alaska, specifically south of the Kuskokwim River back toward upper Bristol Bay.

Back-to-back Kona low systems from early to mid-March brought some of the worst flooding in more than 20 years to parts of Hawaii. Maui bore the brunt of the extreme precipitation; Kahului Airport shattered its all-time wettest month on record, amassing an astounding 20.61 inches of rain by March 24. During this same period, airports at Molokai, Lihue, and Hilo reported impressive rainfall totals of 20.35, 13.76, and 12.96 inches, respectively. Consequently, moderate drought (D1) was eradicated from Molokai and Maui, while abnormal dryness (D0) was completely removed from Molokai and Lanai, and further reduced across Maui.

The U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands experienced variable weather conditions during the drought-monitoring period ending on March 24, ranging from worsening drought on Utirik in the northern Marshall Islands to flash flooding in Guam. Utirik’s designation was changed from severe to extreme drought (D2-S to D3-S), following another week with less than an inch of rain. Since December 1, 2025, Utirik’s rainfall has totaled less than 5 inches. Elsewhere in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Wotje received enough rain (1.22 inches) during the week to prevent deterioration and remains in severe drought (D2-S), while Kwajalein received 1.33 inches and does not yet require a designation of abnormal dryness. Meanwhile, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) have neither dryness nor drought, with missing data for Fananu, Pingelap, and Ulithi. On March 24, a disturbance over the northwestern FSM produced locally heavy showers across Yap and neighboring areas, including portions of the Marianas. Guam International Airport continued to approach its March rainfall record of 16.94 inches, set in 1971; the airport received 13.15 inches through the 24th, with an additional 1.31 inches falling on March 25. Elsewhere, the Republic of Palau remained free of dryness and drought, while American Samoa continued to experience warm weather and abnormally dry conditions (D0-S). During the first 24 days of March, high temperatures at American Samoa’s Pago Pago International Airport reached 90°F or greater ten times, well above average, highlighting a warmer-than-normal regime that has largely been in place for more than 2 weeks.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five days (March 24–28, 2026), the contiguous United States is forecast to experience another week of widespread, record-breaking warmth. A strong upper-level ridge will dominate the western and central U.S., pushing temperatures 20 to 40 degrees above average. This extreme heat, combined with dry conditions and gusty downsloping winds, will elevate fire weather risks across the High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a deepening low-pressure system will bring even stronger winds to the Northern Rockies. Concurrently, a potent mid-latitude cyclone will track from the Pacific Northwest toward the Canadian Maritimes. This system will initially drop moderate to heavy rain over the Northwest—potentially triggering isolated flooding—alongside high-elevation snow in the Olympics and Cascades. After weakening over the Central U.S., the system is expected to reinvigorate over the East by late next week, delivering a mix of rain to the south and snow to the north across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.

Further out, the Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook (valid March 29–April 2, 2026) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the contiguous U.S. and Hawaii. Conversely, below-normal precipitation is favored for most of Alaska and along portions of the East Coast, stretching from southern New England to northern Florida. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are increased across the vast majority of the lower 48 states and Hawaii, while below-normal temperatures are expected to persist across most of Alaska and much of the Northeast.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/24)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (3/23)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 69 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1256512 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (3/19)

This week, a powerful storm system crossed from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Midwest, and a historic blizzard to portions of the Upper Midwest, especially in northern Wisconsin and Michigan near Lake Superior. Total precipitation amounts exceeded 2 inches in a large area of the western Great Lakes, while lighter amounts, mostly 0.5-3 inches of precipitation, fell across parts of the southern and eastern Contiguous U.S. Improvements to ongoing drought and dryness occurred across large portions of the Midwest, parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley, and in the Northeast outside of northern New England. Heavy rain and, in some areas, mountain snow, fell across parts of the Northwest, locally improving drought conditions. However, significant deficits in snow still exist in many parts of the West, including the Pacific Northwest, which limited the longer-term benefits of the precipitation that fell. Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week. Precipitation deficits, and lack of snowpack in the mountains, continued to worsen amid high evaporative demand, leading to widespread worsening of abnormal dryness and drought, especially in South Dakota and Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and parts of Oregon that missed out on precipitation. A kona low delivered heavy precipitation to all of Hawaii this week, leading to widespread 1- and local 2-category improvements to ongoing drought conditions from Molokai eastward.

Northeast

In the Northeast, 0.5-2 inches of precipitation fell this week, with local amounts in the 2-3 inch range, leading to some improvements to conditions in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern New England. In many areas that saw conditions improve, long-term precipitation deficits had lessened in severity and groundwater levels rose. Two or more inches of precipitation were most common this week downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, central and northeast Pennsylvania, Connecticut and eastern Maine. Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across the entire region; temperatures were mostly 6-12 degrees above normal in New England, and 9-12 degrees above normal elsewhere.

Southeast

In the Southeast, drought conditions worsened in a few areas, improved in a few areas, and remained unchanged for most as drought and abnormal dryness maintained a hold in the region. Heavy rain fell this week in central and northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia, and amounts checked in at or above 2 inches in most locations. Given the very dry conditions beforehand in northwest Georgia, this rain acted more to prevent worsening drought. In central Alabama, the rain improved soil moisture and precipitation deficits enough for improvement in some areas of abnormal dryness or moderate drought. A similar story played out in a few locales in North Carolina, though with lesser rain amounts, improvements were much more isolated. Severe drought expanded or contracted in a couple spots in South Carolina (due to worsening or improving precipitation deficits and soil moisture), though conditions across the Palmetto State remained mostly the same. Exceptional drought developed along the Florida-Georgia state line, where soil moisture and precipitation deficits worsened and several streamflow gauges moved into record-low territory for mid-March. Severe drought expanded in west-central Virginia, as soil moisture remained low and 6-month precipitation deficits highlighted worsening conditions amid temperatures ranging from 9-12 degrees warmer than normal for the week. Very heavy rain fell in parts of Miami-Dade County in Florida, resulting in some improvements to drought conditions, though the benefit of the heavy rain was likely limited given runoff and very low water levels in the Everglades. Airboat operators in the Everglades have recently had to pause or re-route tours given how low water levels have been there.

South

A strong low pressure system traversed the Great Plains into the Midwest with it, bringing widespread strong winds, locally heavy rain and a powerful blizzard to the Upper Great Lakes. Weekly precipitation amounts ranged from 2-3 inches, locally more, from central and northern Illinois to eastern Wisconsin, the central and eastern Michigan Upper Peninsula, and much of the Michigan Lower Peninsula (excluding southeast areas) and northern Indiana. Improvements occurred across much of Illinois, Wisconsin, most parts of Michigan that still were experiencing drought or abnormal dryness, and parts of Missouri, Iowa, western Kentucky, Indiana and northeast Ohio. Longer-term precipitation deficits and paltry streamflow still exist in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, though recent precipitation has alleviated conditions in some areas, so widespread improvements were made this week. The impact of recent precipitation on soil moisture and streamflow in the Midwest will continue to be monitored in the coming weeks. Recent precipitation and improvements in soil moisture and precipitation deficits led to the aforementioned local improvements in Missouri, Iowa and northwest Kentucky. Weekly temperatures were 3-9 degrees below normal in northwest Minnesota, as cold air wrapped around the powerful storm system, while temperatures in the southern half of the Midwest were 3-12 degrees warmer than normal for mid-March.

Midwest

This week, parts of east Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee benefitted from localized rains of at least 2 inches. Elsewhere, deep south Texas, western Texas, and northern and western Oklahoma were mostly dry this week. Temperatures across the region were warmer than normal, with readings varying widely from a degree or two above normal to 9-12 degrees above normal. Soil moisture levels improved and precipitation shortfalls lessened in parts of east-central Texas, Louisiana and southeast Arkansas, leading to localized improvements to drought conditions in these areas. Despite heavier rains, a small area of extreme drought shifted northeast in southeast Tennessee due to very large precipitation deficits that continued this week. Growing short-term precipitation deficits led to the development of severe drought in a small area of northwest Tennessee. Heavy rain in Dallas improved local conditions. Warm, dry and windy conditions were the rule elsewhere in the southern Great Plains and deep south Texas, leading to localized degradations in central and northern Texas, deep south Texas, south-central and northwest Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.

High Plains

In the southern half of the High Plains region, warmer-than-normal weather continued this week amid mainly dry and frequently windy conditions. Degradation in drought conditions was widespread across Nebraska and southern parts of South Dakota. A deadly wildfire in western Nebraska, the Morrill Fire, has burned a record amount of land for Nebraska wildfires. This fire, and others across Nebraska, occurred amid weather conditions favorable for fire growth and a background of worsening drought conditions. The Great Plains of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado also saw worsening drought and abnormal dryness this week, as precipitation deficits continued to mount along with warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter and early spring. Large precipitation deficits and above-normal evaporative demand over the last several months led to extreme drought development in parts of the Black Hills in southwest South Dakota. Colder temperatures and some precipitation kept conditions unchanged (and mostly free of drought or abnormal dryness) in North Dakota and northern South Dakota.

West

Current drought conditions in the West continued to be headlined by snow drought this week. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of the San Juan Mountains in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico saw widespread worsening conditions this week. Overall dry and warm conditions worsened both precipitation deficits and snowpack conditions in these areas. Some snow-water monitoring sites in the region have seen near-full or full melting of snowpack. Degradations to ongoing drought and dryness were also widespread in Arizona this week, where warmer-than-normal temperatures combined with dry weather to worsen short-term precipitation deficits, increase evaporative demand and support low streamflow levels. High-elevation parts of Arizona that usually have snow on the ground in mid-March are also suffering from snow drought. This combination of drier- and warmer-than-normal weather and snow drought may set the state for drought conditions to worsen in the coming weeks if weather conditions remain warm and dry. Warmer-than-normal and dry weather occurred this week in Nevada, worsening conditions in some areas, especially in the north, where impacts are being reported as a result of unusually warm and dry weather over the last several months and meagre mountain snow. Due to locally heavy precipitation or lack thereof, a mix of small-scale improvements and degradations occurred in Oregon. Amid the snow drought, localized degradations occurred in southwest Idaho, while heavier mountain snows improved snowpack in some mountain ranges in parts of western Montana, leading to localized improvements. The effectiveness of this locally renewed snowpack in improving soil moisture will be analyzed further in the weeks ahead.

Caribbean

Generally drier conditions continued this week in southern Puerto Rico in a small area of abnormal dryness. Otherwise, the island remained free of abnormal dryness or drought this week.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, recent weather conditions have featured occasional showers and gusty trade winds, due to high pressure anchored over the North Atlantic. At Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix, peak easterly wind gusts to 40 mph or higher were clocked on March 8, 10, and 16. On St. Thomas, heavy rain was observed on March 12-13, when 24-hour totals near 2 inches were recorded in several locations. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at all time periods for multiple sites on the three major islands are supportive of neither dryness nor drought. Therefore, the U.S. Virgin Islands have a “clean” drought map for the fourth consecutive week. Other evidence, including the Vegetation Health Index and well data from the U.S. Geological Survey, also supports drought-free conditions. Current depths to water include 20.5 feet at the Adventure 28 well on St. Croix, about 3.7 feet greater than a year ago, and 13.3 feet at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well on St. John, about 4.4 feet greater than a year ago.

Pacific

Primarily drier-than-normal weather occurred this week in Alaska, though this also occurred amid temperatures ranging from 10-25 degrees below normal outside of southeast Alaska and the North Slope. No changes were made to ongoing areas of abnormal dryness, and most of the state remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

Very heavy rain amounts fell across Hawaii this week, associated with the passage of a kona low, leading to one- or 2-category improvements across all islands from Molokai eastward. As of March 17, Kahului, in central Maui, had already received a record amount of rain, 16.36 inches, for both March and any month on record. Many measuring sites from Maui westward received at least 8 inches above their normal rainfall for the week, while some locations in the southern Big Island received 16-20 inches above their normal weekly rain. Agricultural damage from the storm system was also reported in portions of Oahu. Portions of central Maui improved from extreme to moderate drought this week, and further improvements may be necessary in the weeks ahead as the effect of this week’s storm system is analyzed more.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, the drought-monitoring period began with Tropical Depression Nuri meandering near Yap, across northwestern parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), before dissipating on March 12. All monitored sites in the FSM remained free of drought and abnormal dryness, with missing data noted for Fananu, Pingelap, and Ulithi. Meanwhile, historically wet weather prevailed during the first half of March in the Marianas. At Guam International Airport, month-to-date rainfall through the 17th totaled 12.12 inches (762% of normal). Guam International Airport’s wettest March on record occurred in 1971, with 16.94 inches. There were neither dryness- nor drought-related concerns in the Marianas and the Republic of Palau, which has also experienced a wet March to date. In contrast, weekly rainfall at Pago Pago International Airport in American Samoa was less than 2 inches for the fifth time in the last six drought-monitoring periods. Given American Samoa’s short-term dryness at the international airport and other locations, abnormal dryness (D0-S) was retained on Tutuila for a fourth consecutive week. Elsewhere, northern atolls in the Marshall Islands remained quite dry, with severe drought (D2-S) persisting on Utirik and Wotje for a fourth consecutive week. Since December 1, 2025, less than 4 inches of rain has fallen on Utirik, while approximately 7 inches has fallen on Wotje.

Looking Ahead

Through the evening of Monday, March 23, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center’s forecast depicts mostly dry weather across a large swath of the Contiguous U.S. Precipitation totaling 0.5-1 inch may fall from West Virginia into New York, and in spots in New England. Similar precipitation amounts are forecast in parts of northwest Montana and the Idaho Panhandle. Western Washington is forecast to receive widespread precipitation amounts of at least 1 inch, with some favored mountainous areas forecast to receive 2.5-5 inches of precipitation (or locally more). Elsewhere, the forecast calls for precipitation amounts to remain at or below 0.5 inches, with most of the Great Plains, Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, and the Gulf Coast states likely to remain completely dry.

Looking ahead from March 24-28, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the West, especially in the Southwest, and across much of the Great Plains and South. Near- or below-normal temperatures are favored from northern North Dakota eastward through the Great Lakes into much of the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is favored in Washington, northern Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana, and from northern Michigan eastward across the northern half of the Northeast. Wetter-than-normal weather is also forecast in central and southern Florida. Elsewhere in the contiguous United States, below-normal precipitation is more likely, especially from the Great Plains to Utah, Nevada, the Desert Southwest and California.