February Ag Prices Received Index Up 7.1 Percent; Prices Paid Up 0.6 Percent

February Prices Received Index Up 7.1 Percent  

The February Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 120.0, increased 7.1 percent from January but decreased 5.4 percent from February 2023. At 100.3, the Crop Production Index was up 2.1 percent from last month but down 17 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 141.3, increased 3.5 percent from January, and 6.0 percent from February last year. Producers received higher prices during February for market eggs, cattle, lettuce, and hogs but lower prices for corn, soybeans, broilers, and wheat. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In February, there was increased monthly movement for cattle, milk, broilers, and market eggs and decreased marketing of soybeans, corn, wheat, and tobacco.  

February Prices Paid Index Up 0.6 Percent  

The February Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 139.1, is up 0.6 percent from January 2024 but down 1.4 percent from February 2023. Higher prices in February for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and LP gas more than offset lower prices for complete feeds, nitrogen, feed grains, and supplements.  

This Week's Drought Summary (3/28)

A winter-like storm system crossing the central Plains and upper Midwest resulted in a variety of weather hazards, including blizzard conditions, high winds, heavy rain, and locally severe thunderstorms. That storm was preceded by a weaker system, which produced a stripe of snow from northern Montana into portions of the Great Lakes States. Combined, the two storms produced 40 to 50% of the season-to-date snowfall in 4 to 5 days at several upper Midwestern locations, including Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota. Though the winter-like storm eventually weakened and drifted northward into Canada, impacts lingered. For example, the wettest day ever observed during March was noted on the 23rd in mid-Atlantic locations such as Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and New York’s LaGuardia and JFK Airports. Elsewhere, the West received widespread but generally light precipitation.

Northeast

There were no changes to the Northeastern depiction. Moderate drought (D1) was limited to portions of five counties in western New York and Nantucket Island in Massachusetts. In the latter location, ongoing groundwater concerns have led to the D1 designation. On March 20, fast-moving wildfires in West Virginia were unrelated to drought, instead fueled by wind gusts above 60 mph, low humidity levels, and ample fine fuels. The largest individual blaze in West Virginia was the 4,909-acre Waites Run Fire, which mostly burned in Hardy County.

Southeast

Chilly Southeastern conditions yielded to showery weather. On March 19, as the drought-monitoring period began, Alabama locations such as Anniston and Tuscaloosa posted daily-record lows of 28°F. By March 20, during a brief period of dry, windy weather, wildfires flared in western Virginia and environs. A wind gust to 61 mph was clocked on that date in Front Royal, Virginia. The largest individual wildfire in Virginia was the 6,321-acre Waterfall Mountain/Shenandoah Forest/211 Fire, west of Luray. Later, heavy rain clipped eastern North Carolina’s patch of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1), resulting in a slight reduction in coverage.

South

Additional heavy showers further trimmed coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) in the mid-South and western Gulf Coast region. In fact, severe drought (D2) was eliminated from Mississippi, while moderate drought (D1) was eradicated from Louisiana. Farther west, however, there was modest expansion of dryness and drought in northern and western sections of Oklahoma and Texas. On March 24, high winds raised dust in western Texas, where Lubbock clocked a southwesterly wind gust to 73 mph and reported visibilities as low as 2 miles. On March 24, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, topsoil moisture was rated 44% very short to short in Texas, along with 27% in Oklahoma. On the same date, 51% of the winter wheat in Texas was rated in good to excellent condition, along with 70% of the crop in Oklahoma.

Midwest

Heavy precipitation—rain and snow—brought some dramatic drought changes to the Midwest. The highest totals, 2 to 3 inches or more, bisected Missouri and covered portions of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Where heavier precipitation fell but long-term issues such as groundwater shortages remained, the drought designation was changed from “SL” – both long- and short-term drought – to “L”. From March 21-24, snowfall totaled 14.3 inches in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and 11.3 inches in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota. Through March 20, season-to-date snowfall had totaled just 16.4 inches (34% of normal) in Eau Claire and 14.3 inches (31%) in Minneapolis-St. Paul. A large percentage of the Midwestern spring snow fell on March 24, when daily-record totals included 10.0 inches in Eau Claire and 8.2 inches in Minneapolis-St. Paul. However, precipitation bypassed a few Midwestern areas, with those areas noting some slight expansion of abnormally dry conditions (D0) and moderate drought (D1). On March 24, with precipitation underway, the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated that statewide topsoil moisture was rated more than 40% very short to short on March 24 in several Midwestern States, including Illinois (44%) and Missouri (42%).

High Plains

While much of the region experienced precipitation, including late-season snow, there were some targeted areas of expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1), especially in southern Kansas. General reductions in the coverage of D0 and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) were observed in several areas, including parts of the Dakotas, northern Kansas, and eastern sections of Montana and Nebraska. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, topsoil was rated more than 40% very short to short on March 24 in Wyoming (55%), North Dakota (49%), South Dakota (47%), Nebraska (47%), Kansas (45%).

West

Drought changes were mostly minor, although a reassessment of season-to-date precipitation and conditions led to some drought improvement being depicted in parts of New Mexico. Approaching the traditional Western peak snowpack date of April 1, snow-water equivalencies were mostly near or above average, except in much of Montana, Washington, northern Idaho, and northeastern Wyoming. Those low snowpack numbers were reflected in ongoing moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) in the northern Rockies and environs.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, rainfall continued to provide targeted relief from abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1), which has had a diminishing footprint in recent weeks.

The weather over the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (March 20-26) was basically hot and dry. Scattered showers dropped up to a fourth of an inch of rain on parts of St. Croix, but most locations in the USVI reported less than a tenth of an inch of rain, if any. According to USGS well data, groundwater levels steadily fell this week on all 3 islands, however satellite observations of vegetative health (VHI) did not show any vegetative stress. March month-to-date precipitation totals were below normal, but rain earlier in the month and wet weather in February held conditions at status quo this week, so long-term abnormal dryness (D0-L) continued on St. Thomas while St. John and St. Croix remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Pacific

Alaska remained completely free of dryness and drought. Mild weather returned across mainland Alaska, while some western locations reported stormy conditions. In western Alaska, daily-record precipitation totals included 0.34 inch (on March 19) in Nome and 0.92 inch (on March 21) in Cold Bay. With highs of 50 and 51°F, respectively, on March 22 and 24, Fairbanks posted its first 50-degree readings since September 30, 2023.

For the second week in a row, there were no changes to the drought depiction in Hawaii, with moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) covering 32% of the state. Despite a recent drying trend in windward areas of the Big Island, Hilo’s March 1-26 rainfall totaled 14.99 inches (140 percent of normal). At the state’s other major airport observation sites, March 1-26 rainfall ranged from 0.23 inch (11 percent of normal) in Honolulu, Oahu, to 0.93 inch (41 percent) in Kahului, Maui.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), a dry trade-wind pattern dominated Micronesia (Micronesia is the part of the USAPI that is located north of the equator) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (March 20-26). Weak tropical disturbances moving through a near-equatorial trough (NET) brought rain to parts of Micronesia, while a cold front moved through the Marianas. (By the time fronts reach the USAPI, they deteriorate into shear lines, but they can still generate areas of rain.) The trade-wind pattern dominated over most of the islands, so weekly rainfall totals were below the weekly minimum required to meet most water needs (which is 1 inch for the Marianas and American Samoa and 2 inches elsewhere), except in eastern parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and adjacent Marshall Islands (RMI) where they were above. A ridge of high pressure kept the weather mostly dry across American Samoa (which is the part of the USAPI that is located south of the equator), although unstable air moved into the region near the end of the USDM week.

About an inch of rain (1.15 inches) fell at Airai in the Republic of Palau, which is half of the weekly minimum needed to meet most water needs. This week marked the third consecutive dry week, which is a trigger for the initiation of abnormal dryness. Water levels at the Ngerimel and Ngerikiil reservoirs, Airai, have significantly dropped due to insufficient rainfall and heightened water consumption, prompting the issuance of a Water Shortage Watch, and reports of vegetation yellowing were also received recently. D0-S was added to Palau.

Drought is stressing vegetation such as coconuts, in addition to causing water shortages, in Yap State. In eastern Yap State, the people of Satawal Island reported a dire and critical emergency situation of water catchments running dry. Limited showers the last few days have refilled some of the water tanks to half or a quarter full. Well water may be unsafe to use; people who have been using well water for drinking and cooking were becoming ill. Water in catchment tanks on Satawal, Ifaluk, and Eauripik can last from 1 to 3 weeks, depending on island, if no more rain falls. About half of an inch of rain (0.62 inch) has been recorded at the main National Weather Service (NWS) weather station on Yap island for March 1-26, giving this month a rank of second driest out of 73 years, so far. With 5 consecutive dry months, 11 of the last 12 weeks dry, and a near-record dry March, the status at Yap was worsened to D3-S (extreme drought).

March 18 and March 25 statements discussed a Drought and Inundation Response Plan by the RMI government. The report estimated that 3,970 people in northern and western RMI were affected by the drought, with a total of 18 atolls/islands reporting water scarcity in their respective locations. Many islands have no water for people, livestock, and vegetation. The report warned that, even if rain were to begin by the end of April or early May, the impacts of the drought will continue for several months – it will take many months for water sources to be replenished, water quality to improve, and crops to be planted and harvested. A declaration of a State of Emergency for drought in the RMI was recommended. Only an inch of rain (0.99 inch) has fallen so far this month at Majuro, with March 1-26, 2024 ranking as the sixth driest such March period out of 70 years of data. With the last 7 consecutive weeks dry, and the last 4 months dry, the status at Majuro was worsened to D2-S (severe drought). No rain has fallen at Wotje since February 15; only 2 other years have had no rain for February 16-March 26. With 10 of the last 11 months dry, and no rain at all falling for the last 5 weeks, the status at Wotje was worsened to D3-SL (short- and long-term extreme drought).

Some level of drought or abnormal dryness continues at the other USAPI stations. In the RMI, D0-S continues at Ailinglaplap and Jaluit, and D1-S continues at Kwajalein. In the FSM, D1-S continues at Chuuk, Pingelap, and Woleia, while D2-S continues at Ulithi. In the Marianas, D1-S continues at Rota and D2-S continues at Guam and Saipan. Satellite observations show some stressed vegetation on Guam. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings were issued for Guam and wildfires developed in very dry and windy conditions.

Elsewhere in the FSM, last week was wet and March is wet (above monthly minimums), so D-Nothing (no drought or abnormal dryness) continued at Pohnpei, Kosrae, Lukunor, Kapingamarangi, and Nukuoro. Previous weeks were wet and March is wet in American Samoa where D-Nothing continues.

Looking Ahead

Rain will linger along the Atlantic Coast through Thursday, with parts of interior New England experiencing a rain-to-snow transition on Friday. Farther west, Pacific storminess will initially affect the northern half of the western U.S. By Friday, however, the focus for stormy weather will shift into California. During the weekend, precipitation will spread farther inland across the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and parts of the Southwest. Early next week, precipitation will return across the nation’s mid-section, initially extending eastward from Colorado and Wyoming.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 2 – 6 calls for the likelihood of near- or below-normal temperatures nationwide, except for warmer-than-normal weather in California, the Great Basin, northern New England, and southern Florida. Meanwhile, near- or above-normal precipitation across much of the country should contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in coastal sections of Oregon and northern California, as well as a broad area covering much of the eastern Plains, mid-South, and Midwest.

Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report for Arizona is for the week ending March 24, 2024. By week’s end, 3 percent of Arizona cotton had been planted, 9 percentage points below the State’s 5-year average, according to the Mountain Regional Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Sixty-seven percent of Arizona’s barley had headed, up 25 percentage points from the previous year. Arizona barley was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 3 percent of the crop rated fair. Sixty-six percent of the State’s Durum wheat had headed, up 32 percentage points from the previous year’s levels. Durum wheat was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 6 percent of the crop rated fair. Alfalfa hay harvest continued to take place on more than 75 percent of the crop’s acreage throughout the State. Arizona’s alfalfa crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 7 percent of the crop rated fair. Pasture and range conditions throughout the State slightly improved when compared to that of the previous week’s report. Eighteen percent of the State’s pasture and rangeland was rated very poor, 7 percent was rated poor, 24 percent was rated fair, 40 percent was rated good, and 11 percent was rated excellent. Reports from southeastern counties stated that annual forages were now abundant throughout areas of lower elevation. A report from Apache and Navajo Counties also stated that most cattle can still be found on winter pastures. Topsoil moisture levels remained mostly adequate, with 11 percent rated very short, 9 percent rated short, 72 percent rated adequate, and 8 percent rated surplus. Subsoil moisture levels followed a similar trend. Over the past week, measurable precipitation was experienced across much of the State, however, counties along Arizona’s western border, in addition to north-central Coconino County, were the exception and remained relatively dry. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the White Mountains, as well as areas along the central Mogollon Rim, received most of the precipitation, accumulating approximately 2.25 inches, while other areas of Arizona received anywhere from 0.25 to 1.50 inches of total precipitation. A reporter from Graham and Greenlee Counties stated that hail was reported in some areas, but no damages were reported. The drought information statements for northern, as well as southeast Arizona, were both rescinded as the State received, on average, 0.75 inch of above normal precipitation since January 1. According to the National Weather Service, Arizona experienced several widespread rain events over the last 30 days. Despite recent precipitation, the seasonal outlook for April, May, and June shows equal odds for either above, near, or below normal seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal total precipitation apart from southeast Arizona where the seasonal total precipitation outlook is leaning below normal and northeast Arizona where the seasonal mean temperature outlook is now leaning above normal. Subsequently, Arizona’s seasonal drought outlook shows that conditions are expected to persist throughout central and southeastern regions of the State. Streamflow conditions in portions of the Lower San Pedro and Colorado River Basins continues to be well below normal. However, conditions throughout the State have greatly improved as snowpack has begun to melt throughout areas of higher elevation resulting in all of Arizona’s remaining river basin’s streamflow conditions to be rated from much above normal to normal. As of March 19, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed a slight improvement when compared to that of the previous report. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) spanned 40 percent of the State, moderate drought (D1) enveloped 29 percent, severe drought (D2) encompassed 11 percent, and extreme drought (D3) remained at 2 percent of the State’s total land area. Arizona once again remained free of exceptional (D4) drought. Over the past week, temperatures across much of the State decreased according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). Daytime highs throughout Arizona ranged from 8 degrees below to 4 degrees above normal and ranged from the mid-40s in Coconino County to the mid-80s across southwestern regions of the State. Overnight lows ranged from 5 degrees below to 4 degrees above normal and ranged from 25 to 45 degrees across northern and eastern counties, whereas counties within the Sonoran Desert experienced lows of 50 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit. 

IDAHO: The average temperatures in Idaho for March were above normal in the north and below normal in the south. Accumulated precipitation was below normal in the north but normal in the south. Elmore and Owyhee Counties reported average crop conditions as the dormancy period ends. Buds were present on most trees, but leaf breaks had not yet occurred. Ranges and pastures had slowly begun growing, but growth this past week was more than average. Weed and pest pressure were higher than average due to the lack of sub-freezing temperatures during winter. Calving season experienced milder conditions. Jerome and Twin Falls Counties reported farmers were back in the fields. A few acres of spring cereals and sugarbeets were planted. Other major activities included applying fertilizer, heavy field tillage, and hauling manure. There appeared to be adequate irrigation water for this year. Ranges and pasture grasses were starting to break dormancy. There were a few reports of heavy vole damage in fields across the valley. The weather stayed suitable for livestock. Bonneville and Madison Counties reported that the fields were still too wet to work. Clark, Fremont, and Madison Counties reported cold weather, with snow covering the winter wheat. Bannock, Bingham, and Butte Counties reported rising temperatures and some light flooding. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of March 2024. Topsoil moisture 10% very short, 43% short, 47% adequate. Subsoil moisture 19% very short, 60% short, 21% adequate. Winter wheat breaking dormancy 13%. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 3% poor, 48% fair, 44% good, 4% excellent. Winter wheat wind damage 50% none, 31% light, 19% moderate. Winter wheat freeze damage 63% none, 23% light, 12% moderate, 2% severe. Snow cover 17% very poor, 31% poor, 35% fair, 14% good, 3% excellent. Pasture and range condition 13% very poor, 39% poor, 46% fair, 2% good. Grazing accessibility 59% open, 21% difficult, 20% closed. Cows calved 15%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 97%. Ewes lambed 12%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 99%. The month of March brought mostly above normal temperatures and varying precipitation to Montana, according to the Mountain Regional Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Much of the State experienced temperatures ranging from near average to about 4 degrees above average, according to data from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). Isolated areas in Richland and Big Horn Counties sustained average temperatures as many as 8 degrees above normal. Various north-central, western, and southern portions of the State experienced temperatures, on average, running about 2 degrees below the norm. Much of eastern, north-central, and western Montana received precipitation in a range of about 0.75 inch below average to normal. The remainder of the State received precipitation reaching only as much as about 0.75 inch above normal. The drought lingered on according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report released on March 21, 2024. The amount of land rated drought free stood at 5 percent, compared with 12 percent as reported on February 22, 2014. Abnormal dryness was found in 53 percent of the State, up 8 percentage points. Moderate drought stood at 25 percent, compared with 22 percent as found in the report for February 22. Severe drought conditions fell to 16 percent, down 4 percentage points. Extreme drought conditions were unchanged at 1 percent. The very dry conditions in Mineral, Missoula, and Ravalli Counties provided excellent conditions for calving. Some operators, however, reported scours in calves due to the warmer days and colder nights. Pneumonia was also a concern in the new calves because of the temperature fluctuations. Fields were open for dragging and tilling. Recent storms provided much needed relief from the dry conditions. Golden Valley and Musselshell Counties reported 3-4 inches of snow over the past weekend. Wibaux County received snow in a range of 4-6 inches. Winter storms in Valley County the third week of March also provided some much-needed moisture as well. 

NEVADA: For the week ending March 24 - Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 25% short, 40% adequate, and 35% surplus. Subsoil moisture 10% short, 65% adequate, and 25% surplus. Pasture and range condition 35% fair, 20% good, and 45% excellent. As of March 19, the US Drought Monitor showed 85% of the State was not in drought. Operations began sending water orders to the State’s irrigation district. Hay fields started to turn green. 

OREGON: Temperatures ranged from average to above average. The reprieve from constant precipitation in Columbia, Multnomah, and Washington Counties allowed some field work to get done. Blueberries and small fruits perked up. Winter damage to crops and field conditions was minimal. Benton and Lincoln Counties experienced warm, sunny weather last week, which allowed pasture grass to progress. Many local farms were finishing up calving season and were in the middle of lambing. Clatsop and Tillamook Counties reported above average temperatures. Field activities consisted of manure application and haying. Field activity increased for spring grass plantings. Hood River, Sherman, Gilliam, Wasco, and Wheeler Counties reported crops were looking well and received a lot of moisture. Reports mentioned operations were assessing if there was any damage from the cold weather, stripe rust, or any other plant disease. Fields had dried out enough that people started spraying and mowing stubble. The warmer weather was very beneficial to pastures and crops. Lake County reported recent precipitation. Livestock and irrigation water conditions were given a positive outlook for the upcoming grazing and crop season. Umatilla County reported dry conditions and needed more moisture to keep dryland crops in good condition. Malheur County reported warm, dry conditions, allowing for accelerated planting and fieldwork. Ranchers were preparing to move cattle out to pasture. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of March 2024. Topsoil moisture 2% very short, 10% short, 76% adequate, 12% surplus. Subsoil moisture 6% short, 82% adequate, 12% surplus. Pasture and range condition 6% poor, 50% fair, 42% good, 2% excellent. Winter wheat condition 8% poor, 20% fair, 57% good, 15% excellent. Barley planted 1%. Hay and roughage supplies 5% very short, 9% short, 64% adequate, 22% surplus. Stock water supplies 1% short, 89% adequate, 10% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 7% poor, 14% fair, 69% good, 10% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 5% poor, 19% fair, 60% good, 16% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 75%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 84%. Cows calved 23%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 21%. Ewes lambed-range flock 8%. Sheep shorn-farm flock 1%. Sheep shorn-range flock 1%. Mild winter temperatures along with snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of March. Snowpack in Utah, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service as of March 25, 2024, was 125 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Spring planting was under away in Beaver and Cache Counties. Beaver, Box Elder, Grand, and Millard Counties noted that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues due to mild winter weather. 

WASHINGTON: Western Washington saw an earlier spring than usual, with blossoms emerging earlier. After a cold snap, blossoms bounced back, and pollinators were out, but many brassicas were killed due to the cold. Fields were still wet, although a few farmers tilled some ground last week. In central Washington, temperatures were above normal. Native grasses started greening up, and fields were drying out for possible field activity. Calving was going well with no problems. In Yakima County, fields were greening up in the Yakima Valley, from cover crops to grass hays. Rivers and streams were running low compared to last spring. Hop yards were strung for the upcoming season. Most vegetable fields had been prepared, tilled, hilled, and were ready for planting. Pear orchards were white from the dormant applications applied to ward off insects. Apple and cherry orchards received delayed dormant sprays of insecticides and horticultural oils for overwintering aphids, scales, and mites. Precocious cherry blocks were already showing pink as the flower florets began to extend. Apricots were showing a weak flower bloom. In east central Washington, producers experienced moderate springtime weather, temperatures had warmed up, and some counties saw rainfall. Northeastern Washington did not see much rain, but temperatures rose. In southeast Washington, the snowpack was light, and dry conditions continued. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of March 2024. Topsoil moisture 12% very short, 43% short, 40% adequate, 5% surplus. Subsoil moisture 19% very short, 41% short, 40% adequate. Barley planted 19%. Winter wheat condition 4% very poor, 21% poor, 52% fair, 22% good, 1 percent excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 1% very short, 2% short, 86% adequate, 11 percent surplus. Stock water supplies 2% very short, 12% short, 85% adequate, 1% surplus. Livestock condition 1% poor, 5% fair, 89% good, 5% excellent. Pasture and range condition 2% very poor, 8% poor, 49% fair, 39% good, 2% surplus. Cows calved 18%. Ewes lambed 14%. Sheep shorn 27%. Cattle death loss was rated as 62% average, 38% light. Sheep death loss was rated 1% heavy, 61% average, 38% light. Wyoming received relief from the ongoing drought conditions during the month of March. Precipitation was scattered and total accumulations varied, ranging from a trace to as much as 10 inches during the month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures across the State were warmer than normal, ranging from 2 to 10 degrees above average. Drought conditions in the State slightly improved during March according to the United States Drought Monitor report published on March 19, 2024. The amount of land rated drought free equaled 46 percent, compared with 44 percent on February 20, 2024. Abnormally dry conditions covered 28 percent of Wyoming, moderate drought was found in 19 percent, and severe drought was found in 7 percent.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/26)

 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (3/25)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 90 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	416651 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (3/21)

During the drought-monitoring period ending March 19, active weather shifted southward from the central Rockies and lower Midwest. Eventually, significant precipitation fell across much of the southern United States. Locally severe thunderstorms were most numerous from the southeastern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Based on preliminary reports, the mid-March outbreak included more than three dozen tornadoes, one of which resulted in three fatalities in western Ohio on March 14. Meanwhile, the northern Plains and upper Midwest experienced mostly dry weather. Elsewhere, the southern High Plains escaped a short-lived round of windy, dry weather without any major wildfires, unlike the late-February episode. Recovery efforts continued in fire-affected areas, primarily across the Texas Panhandle, but extending to other areas on the central and southern Plains. As the drought-monitoring period progressed, record-setting warmth first retreated from the Midwest and Northeast into the Deep South, then appeared in the Northwest. By March 19, freezes deep into the Southeast threatened a variety of crops, including blooming fruits and winter grains. On that date in Alabama, both Anniston and Tuscaloosa posted daily-record lows of 28°F.

Northeast

The tiny Northeastern drought footprint remained unchanged, with less than one-half of one percent of the region experiencing moderate drought (D1). Drought was limited to portions of five counties in western New York and Nantucket Island in Massachusetts. In the latter location, ongoing groundwater concerns have led to the D1 designation.

Southeast

Eastern North Carolina’s patch of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) grew slightly amid dry conditions, while heavy rain eradicated D0 in Georgia and resulted in a reduction of D0/D1 coverage in Alabama. D0 coverage was unchanged in west-central Florida. As the monitoring period ended, a bigger concern was any agricultural impact from the cold snap that peaked on March 19, with frost and freezes extending deep into Alabama and Georgia, as well as the northern tier of Florida.

South

Pounding rains totaled 2 to 6 inches or more from southeastern Oklahoma and southern and eastern Texas to the Mississippi Delta. Improvements of up to one category were noted in areas where the heavy rain overlapped existing coverage of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2), including northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. El Dorado, Arkansas, in an area not affected by drought, endured its wettest day during March on record, with the daily total of 6.31 inches on the 15th surpassing the mark of 5.85 inches set on March 28, 1914. Farther west, showers in Oklahoma and Texas were more scattered, with only targeted drought improvements. In fact, abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in parts of western Oklahoma and environs, as the effects of recent warmth and windy, dry conditions began to reduce topsoil moisture and adversely affect winter wheat. On March 17, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, topsoil moisture was rated 49% very short to short in Texas, along with 28% in Oklahoma. On the same date, winter wheat was rated 61% good to excellent (and 7% very poor to poor) in Oklahoma, and 46% good to excellent (and 19% very poor to poor) in Texas.

Midwest

Heavy streaks of rain, in some cases laced with hail, pelted the Midwest, with precipitation intensity generally peaking on March 13-14. Enough rain fell in parts of the Midwest to not only reduce drought coverage and intensity, but also to result in a change in designation from “SL” – short- and long-term drought – to “L,” or only long-term drought. At the same time, mostly dry conditions persisted across the upper Midwest, where pervasive moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) continued. Much of the upper Midwest has experienced a season-long “snow drought,” with some locations in Minnesota and environs receiving less than one foot of snow through March 19. In Rochester, Minnesota, season-to-date snowfall through the 19th stood at 11.9 inches, barely one-quarter of the normal value of 46.9 inches.

High Plains

Generally minor changes in the drought depiction were observed on the High Plains. Some increases in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) were noted on the Plains from central and southwestern Kansas northward into parts of South Dakota. Despite the Plains’ pockets of dryness and drought, prospects for the winter wheat crop remained mostly favorable. In Kansas, 55% of the winter wheat was rated in good to excellent condition on March 17, with only 12% of the crop rated very poor to poor, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Meanwhile, some drought reductions occurred in the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming. In Colorado, March 13-15 snowfall totaled 12.9 inches in Colorado Springs. On the 14th, as rain changed to snow, Pueblo, Colorado, experienced its wettest day during March on record, with 1.53 inches (and 2.5 inches of snow). Previously, Pueblo’s wettest day during March had been March 18, 1998, with 1.26 inches. During the mid-month event, numerous 3- to 5-foot snowfall totals were noted in the Colorado Rockies, with Aspen Springs in Gilpin County receiving 61.5 inches.

West

Late-season precipitation in the Southwest contrasted with the arrival of record-setting warmth in the Northwest. The Southwestern precipitation, including high-elevation snow, resulted in some generous reductions in drought coverage, especially in parts of Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. Meanwhile, warmth appeared in the Northwest, where Quillayute, Washington, set a monthly record with a high of 80°F on March 16. Quillayute’s previous record, 79°F, had been set on March 20, 2019.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, recent rainfall provided some relief in western drought areas. In fact, moderate drought (D1) was removed from southwestern Puerto Rico, while D1 coverage was reduced in the northwest.

The main weather feature over the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (March 13-19) was a high pressure ridge with generally dry air and warmer-than-normal temperatures. But patches of moisture moved through the ridge, triggering scattered showers on a few days. Weekly rainfall totals ranged from a tenth of an inch to 1.49 inches on St. Thomas, from about half of an inch to almost an inch on St. Croix, and from a third to two-thirds of an inch on St. John. Satellite observations of vegetative health (VHI) did not show any vegetative stress. According to USGS well data, groundwater levels steadily fell this week on St. John, and went up and down on St. Thomas and St. Croix. Month-to-date precipitation totals were below normal, but this week’s rain was enough to keep conditions status quo, so long-term abnormal dryness (D0-L) continued on St. Thomas while St. John and St. Croix remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Pacific

Alaska remained completely free of dryness and drought. A cold, mostly dry regime gripped much of northern, western, and interior Alaska in mid-March, while mild, showery weather covered southeastern Alaska.

Hawaiian showers provided minimal relief from short-term moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) that covered 32% of the state. However, windward areas of the Big Island remained quite wet, with Hilo’s month-to-date rainfall through March 19 totaling 14.55 inches (181 percent of normal). At the state’s other major airport observation sites, March 1-19 rainfall ranged from 0.21 inch (14 percent of normal) in Honolulu, Oahu, to 0.83 inch (49 percent) in Kahului, Maui. On the 15th, Kahului’s high temperature (69°F) stayed below the 70-degree mark for the first time ever in March and for the first time since January 20, 1994.

A dry trade-wind pattern continued across northern and western parts of Micronesia (Micronesia is the part of the USAPI that is located north of the equator) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (March 13-19), while tropical disturbances moving through a near-equatorial trough (NET) brought rain to southern parts of Micronesia. A high pressure ridge kept the weather mostly dry across American Samoa (which is the part of the USAPI that is located south of the equator).

A weekly minimum of 1 inch of rain is required to meet most water needs in the Marianas and American Samoa, while the weekly minimum is 2 inches for the rest of the USAPI (U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands). This week, over 4 inches of rain fell on the islands of Pohnpei, Kosrae, Kapingamarangi, Pingelap, and Kwajalein, and over 3 inches fell on Lukunor, due to the NET. The rain ended abnormal dryness on Pohnpei and Lukunor, and improved conditions on Pingelap and Kwajalein, both of which improved one category to moderate drought (D1-S). Nearly 3 inches of rain was recorded at Nukuoro, which was already free of drought or abnormal dryness. Rainfall totals were below weekly minimums at all other USAPI reporting locations.

Drought impacts were occurring in parts of Micronesia. The Northwest Islands of Chuuk state reported taro patches were dried up, young fruits were falling off breadfruit trees, and 90% of the breadfruit leaves were drying, with the Island groups of Weita and Pafong in need of drinking water. The impacts resulted in the drought status of Chuuk lagoon being worsened one category to D1-S (moderate drought). Water shortages were occurring on the outer islands of Yap State, Chuuk State, Pohnpei State, and the northern Marshall Islands (RMI). Vegetation was dry and browning, and water catchments were low, on Kwajalein before the 4+ inches of rain occurred late in the week. People were hauling water on Majuro due to low water catchment levels, and the March 19 Majuro reservoir level was about 22 million gallons, which is below the drought threshold of 28 million gallons. In the northern RMI, vegetation was yellowing on Wotje. Wildfires have been reported on Guam, where the KBDI was in the high category, with isolated reports of wildfires on Yap and Pohnpei. There was no drinking water on Fais, an island 60 miles southeast of Ulithi.

Severe drought (D2-S) continued on Yap, Guam, Saipan, and Ulithi. Short-term severe drought (D2-S) was changed to short- and long-term severe drought (D2-SL) on Wotje where 10 of the last 11 months have been dry. Moderate drought continued on Rota, Woleai, and Majuro; abnormal dryness (D0-S) continued on Jaluit, and abnormal dryness developed on Ailinglaplap, where the last 3 consecutive weeks have been dry.

Looking Ahead

Back-to-back storms across the northern United States should produce significant snow from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes States. The second storm system, expected to reach peak intensity over the weekend or early next week, has the potential to double season-to-date snowfall totals in parts of the upper Midwest. In addition, wind-driven snow from both storms could complicate rural travel and lead to hardship for Northern cattle, especially newborns. Separately, a late-week storm will produce rain in the southern and eastern United States, with 1- to 3-inch totals possible in portions of the Gulf and Atlantic Coast States. Elsewhere, cool, unsettled weather will return across the West, especially from northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for March 26 – 30 calls for near- or above-normal temperatures in the East, while colder-than-normal conditions will stretch from the Pacific Coast to Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal weather will cover the entire country, except the south-central United States, with the greatest likelihood of wet conditions focused across the West and the Southeast.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/19)

 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (3/18)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 88 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	472841 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (3/14)

 Moderate to heavy rain amounts fell across parts of the Southeast and Northeast this week, leading to localized improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in the Southeast, and mostly unchanged conditions in the Northeast, aside from western New York, which missed out on the heavier precipitation and saw minor degradations. The central third of the contiguous U.S. saw a mix of improvements and degradations, based on where heavier precipitation did or did not fall and where dry and windy conditions continued. Parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, the Michigan Lower Peninsula, southern Missouri and southeast Kansas saw improving conditions after heavier rains fell there. Meanwhile, moderate drought expanded in northwest Missouri and portions of west-central Wisconsin, Minnesota, northwest Iowa, the far southern Michigan Upper Peninsula and far northeast Wisconsin. Much of Texas remained the same, with a few degradations in the southeast corner and several degradations in central and southern Texas where long-term drought conditions are still causing impacts. Recent dryness and warm and windy weather in northwest Oklahoma and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles led to abnormal dryness developing there. Short-term dryness and high evaporative demand led to large areas of degrading conditions in northeast Wyoming, while west-central Wyoming, north-central Colorado, northeast Utah, western Montana, and the northern Idaho Panhandle all saw areas of improvement due to lower evaporative demand and improving snowpack recently. In Hawaii, an active trade wind pattern continued, leading to some improvements on the windward (northeast) slopes of the Big Island and Kauai, while a small area of moderate drought developed on the leeward (southwest) portion of Kauai. In Puerto Rico, a few improvements were made where recent rainfall has improved streamflows and crop stress, and lessened rainfall deficits and raised reservoir levels. No changes were made to the Drought Monitor this week in Alaska.

Northeast

Moderate to heavy precipitation fell across most of the Northeast this week, excluding parts of western New York and a few other areas. Temperatures across the region were warmer than normal, with departures in western Pennsylvania and western New York 15-20 degrees above normal in many spots. In western New York, decreasing streamflows and soil moisture and increasing short-term precipitation deficits led to small growth of abnormal dryness and moderate drought areas where long-term drought conditions were already present. The depiction was also changed to an “SL” label, reflecting that dryness there is both short- and long-term. In northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York, recent precipitation has improved conditions enough to lead to the removal of abnormal dryness there. Despite recent precipitation, moderate long-term drought continued this week on Nantucket, where in contrast to Martha’s Vineyard, groundwater deficits remained significant. The rest of the region remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

Southeast

Above-normal temperatures, and generally wet weather, occurred across much of the Southeast region this week. Rain amounts in parts of Georgia and Alabama ranged from 2 inches to locally over 5 inches. Short-term precipitation deficits improved enough in eastern North Carolina for widespread improvements to ongoing abnormal dryness and moderate drought there. Abnormal dryness retreated in northern Alabama, southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle after rain this week alleviated short-term precipitation deficits. Elsewhere, the region remained mostly free of drought or abnormal dryness, aside from lingering areas in eastern North Carolina, far northern Alabama, southwest Alabama and the Tampa Bay area, where long-term drought continued.

South

Rainfall amounts this week in the South region varied widely. In western Oklahoma, south Texas, and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, the weather this week was mostly dry. In north-central Texas, portions of Louisiana and Arkansas, central and southern Mississippi, and south-central Tennessee, rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches occurred, with locally higher amounts. Much of the central and eastern part of the region saw above-normal temperatures, with readings commonly falling into the 2-8 degrees above normal window. In western Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, temperatures were generally closer to normal, with most readings falling somewhere between 4 degrees cooler than normal and 4 degrees warmer than normal. In south-central and southeast Tennessee, recent rainfall improved streamflows and precipitation deficits enough to result in improvements. Farther west in west-central and northwest Tennessee and adjacent east-central Arkansas, abnormally dry conditions expanded where short-term precipitation deficits paired with high evaporative demand and lowering streamflow. In areas of recent heavy rainfall in Louisiana, precipitation deficits lessened and soil moisture profiles improved enough for improvements in areas of abnormal dryness and moderate drought. In southeast Texas and nearby southwest Louisiana, abnormal dryness expanded and moderate drought developed where recent dryness and high evaporative demand combined with decreasing soil moisture and streamflow numbers. In central Texas, recent localized dryness occurred on top of long-term dryness and drought, which combined with very low streamflow in many locations to lead to expansion of drought and abnormal dryness areas. In the northeast Texas Panhandle and adjacent Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma, dry weather over the last couple of months combined with high evaporative demand led to the development of abnormal dryness. In these areas, wildfires have been common recently

Midwest

Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across the entire Midwest region over the past week. Compared to normal, the warmest areas were in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, where temperatures mostly ranged from 4-12 degrees above normal, with locally warmer readings. Locally heavy rain (over 2 inches in some locations) fell in central and southwest Missouri, while rain also occurred in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. A few areas of precipitation occurred in Iowa and southern Wisconsin, but northern Iowa, central and northern Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan were mostly dry this week. In central and southwest Missouri, streamflow and short-term precipitation deficits improved enough for some improvements to ongoing moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness. In northwest Missouri, where precipitation was mostly absent this week, continued dry, warm and windy weather combined with lowering soil moisture and streamflow led to expansions of moderate drought. Similar conditions in southwest Kentucky led to a small expansion of abnormal dryness, consistent with the one made in northwest Tennessee. In Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, far southeast Wisconsin and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, localized heavier precipitation in the last few weeks led to improving short-term precipitation deficits and streamflow. Therefore, abnormal dryness coverage dropped this week in some of these areas. Low snowpack, decreasing soil moisture and dry and warm weather from the last couple months led to expansions in moderate drought in west-central Wisconsin; northeast Wisconsin and the southern Michigan Upper Peninsula; northeast, south-central and southwest Minnesota; and northwest Iowa.

High Plains

Eastern parts of the High Plains region were mostly warmer than normal this week, with temperatures 8-10 degrees above normal occurring in the eastern Dakotas. Colder-than-normal weather occurred in western Wyoming and parts of Colorado. Localized heavy rains from severe thunderstorms this week occurred in parts of central and southeast Kansas, leading to localized improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness. In south-central and southwest Kansas, abnormal dryness developed where dry weather from the past couple of months combined with warm and windy conditions, similar to those experienced in northwest Oklahoma and parts of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. In southwest Nebraska, localized improvements were made to an area of abnormal dryness after a major snowstorm struck the area. Recent dry, warm and windy weather led to a small expansion of abnormal dryness in northeast Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota. In northeast Wyoming and adjacent southwest South Dakota, recent dry, warm and windy weather led to expansions of abnormal dryness and moderate and severe drought. Recent snowpack improvements in the Wyoming Range of west-central Wyoming and in the Never Summer and Medicine Bow Mountains of northern Colorado led to improvements to ongoing abnormal dryness in both areas.

West

Temperatures across the West this week were primarily near normal or colder than normal. Compared to normal, the coldest area was southern Idaho, where temperatures mainly ranged from 6-12 degrees below normal. Portions of central and southeast Montana were 3-6 degrees above normal. Heavy precipitation fell in parts of north-central and northwest California, and along the Oregon and Washington coasts. Elsewhere, precipitation also fell in some of the mountainous parts of the northern half of the West region. After recent heavy precipitation in western Oregon and improvements to streamflow and long-term precipitation deficits, an area of abnormal dryness was removed from west-central Oregon. Given recent wetness, further improvements in the area may occur in coming weeks. In western Montana and northern Idaho, recently improved snowpack and lessening precipitation deficits led to several improvements to ongoing drought and abnormally dry conditions. Due to low evaporative demand and improved long-term precipitation deficits, northeast Utah saw reduced coverage of abnormal dryness this week.

Caribbean

Recent rainfall has improved short-term precipitation deficits, streamflow and crop stress in a few areas of west-central and eastern Puerto Rico. As a result, abnormal dryness was reduced in coverage on the western and eastern halves of Puerto Rico. Temperatures this week were above normal, mostly ranging from 1-3 degrees warmer than normal.

This was a drier week for parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands, where precipitation amounted to 0.65 inches on the west end of St. Thomas, while the eastern part of the island was left fairly dry, according to local observers. St. Croix observers reported 0.19 inches to 0.89 inches on the west end, and lighter amounts to the east. Rainfall for St. John was virtually nonexistent.

In terms of drought, St. Thomas remained abnormally dry in the long term, while St. Croix and St. John were free of dryness. Rainfall has been above normal for St. Croix in the past month, while St. John received 5.66 inches at Windswept Beach in February, which is a record for that location. March, however, has been rather dry for St. John.

The Standardized Precipitation Index indicated neutral or wet conditions at all time scales for St. John. The same was true for East Hill on St. Croix, except at the 12-month SPI, which indicated mild dryness. Missing precipitation data for St. Thomas prevented the calculation of SPIs for that island.

Well levels on all three islands have responded positively to precipitation within the past two weeks. The Vegetation Health Index for all islands showed good conditions on all islands.

Pacific

Above-normal precipitation fell in parts of southeast Alaska this week, while the rest of the state was mostly drier than normal. Temperatures in southeast and south-central Alaska were mostly within 5 degrees of normal. Elsewhere, temperatures were mainly 5-15 degrees colder than normal, except for the North Slope, where temperatures ranged from 10-25 degrees colder than normal. Alaska remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

An active trade wind pattern continued this week, leading to wet weather on the windward (northeast facing) slopes of the islands, while the leeward (southwest facing) slopes generally had drier weather. Temperatures in Hawaii were mostly within 2-3 degrees of normal. On the Big Island, the trade wind rainfall pattern led to some improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in northern portions of the island. On Kauai, abnormal dryness coverage was reduced in the southeast, while a small area of short-term moderate drought developed in the southwest portion of the island, which saw drier weather again this week. No other changes were made in Hawaii this week.

Precipitation was low for the Republic of Palau, with Koror and Palau IAP receiving 0.45 inches and 0.62 inches, respectively, but abundant rainfall the previous week should leave water supplies adequate.

The Mariana Islands all remained in drought with Guam in severe drought (D2-S), Rota in moderate drought (D1-S), and Saipan at D2-S. Guam received 0.44 inches, while Rota reported 0.38 inches. Saipan received 0.41 inches or less at the three reporting locations. These islands need an inch weekly to meet minimum water needs.

The Federated States of Micronesia were largely quite dry. President Wesley Simina declared a national emergency due to severe drought, which is expected to worsen in coming months, as reported by Radio New Zealand. For some of the Outer Islands, rain catchment systems and rivers were running dry, leaving the water supply depleted and compromising sanitation and public health. People in the affected communities desperately need food and water. The states of Yap, Pohnpei and Chuuk declared an emergency according to their respective state laws.

Kapingamarangi reported 4.66 inches. Nukuoro got 2.57 inches and returned to normal condition after being abnormally dry (D0-S) for the past three weeks. All other FSM locations received less than half an inch of rain. Chuuk Lagoon, Lukunor, and Pohnpei are abnormally dry (D0) on a short time scale. Woleai is in D1-S and received 0.10 inches for the week. Pingelap, Ulithi, and Yap are at D2-S.

The Marshall Islands all were dry, receiving 0.51 inches or less for the week. Majuro, previously at D0-S, entered D1-S as the location went two weeks without rainfall. All households that rely on rain harvesting and are not connected to city water are out of water and must depend on water delivery from the city reservoirs. As of March 7, Majuro reservoirs were at 23.55 million gallons.

Kwajalein and Wotje remained at D2-S, and got virtually no rain. Jaluit continued at D0-S and reported 0.51 inches.

American Samoa remained free of dryness. Pago Pago, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge received more than 2 inches of rain, which is the amount these islands need to meet minimum water needs.

Looking Ahead

According to forecasts from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, heavy snowfall is forecast in the Colorado Front Range area near the beginning of the forecast period (March 14-15), while heavy precipitation with this storm system is also likely across other parts of the Four Corners states. Aside from portions of the Four Corners states, much of the West is likely to stay dry through Monday evening. Farther east, through Monday evening, half an inch (or more) of precipitation is forecast from central Nebraska eastward into parts of the Rust Belt. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, is also forecast from central Texas eastward through southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and southeast Missouri to most of Georgia and Tennessee and southern Kentucky.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast favors near-normal precipitation or above-normal precipitation across the contiguous U.S., covering the period from March 19-23. The highest confidence areas for above-normal precipitation are the Florida Peninsula, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Arizona/New Mexico border northward through Montana. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the West, especially in Utah, Nevada, California, Idaho, Washington and Oregon, and in parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Below-normal temperatures are favored in the Southeast, excluding the southern Florida Peninsula where near- or above-normal temperatures are favored. Below-normal temperatures are also favored from central Montana eastward through North Dakota and northern South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, with below-normal temperatures slightly favored in the Ohio River Valley and Rust Belt.

In Hawaii, cooler-than-normal temperatures are favored. Below-normal precipitation is likely on all islands except for the Big Island, where near-normal precipitation is favored. Warmer-than-normal weather is favored in Alaska, especially in the western reaches of the state. Wetter-than-normal weather is favored for central, northern and western Alaska, while drier-than-normal weather is favored in southeast Alaska.