October Agriculture Prices Received Index Down 2.7 Percent, Prices Paid Up 0.3 Percent

October Prices Received Index Down 2.7 Percent 

The October Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 127.7, decreased 2.7 percent from September but increased 20 percent from October 2021. At 121.9, the Crop Production Index was down 4.0 percent from last month but up 15 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 138.9, increased 1.8 percent from September, and 29 percent from October last year. Producers received lower prices during October for corn, soybeans, potatoes, and broilers, but higher prices for lettuce, milk, strawberries, and eggs. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In October, there was decreased monthly movement for cattle, milk, broilers, and eggs, and increased marketing of soybeans, corn, upland cotton, and calves. 

October Prices Paid Index Up 0.3 Percent 

The October Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 137.0, is up 0.3 percent from September 2022 and 12 percent from October 2021. Higher prices in October for self-propelled machinery, supplements, mixed fertilizer, and herbicides more than offset lower prices for complete feeds, concentrates, feed grains, and feeder pigs.

Final Crop Progress Report of 2022 - Winter Wheat Condition Rises, but Still Lowest in 20 Years

OMAHA (DTN) -- Winter wheat conditions improved slightly last week but remained at a two-decade low, USDA NASS reported in its final weekly national Crop Progress report of 2022 released Tuesday. The weekly reports, which run from the beginning of April to the end of November each year, will resume on Monday, April 3, 2023.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 91% of winter wheat was emerged as of Sunday, Nov. 27, equal to last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 90%. "Illinois and Kansas are two major producers who are lagging at 84% and 87% emerged, respectively -- both trailing the five-year average," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

-- Crop condition: 34% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up 2 percentage points from the previous week's 32% but 10 percentage points below last year's rating of 44% good to excellent and the lowest reading in 20 years. "That portion of the crop rated as very poor to poor improved to 26% from 33% the week prior," Mantini said. "Major producer Kansas is rated at just 21% good to excellent and 43% poor to very poor."

SOIL MOISTURE

Topsoil moisture: In the lower 48 states, topsoil moisture was rated 50% very short to short and 50% adequate to surplus. That compares to last year's ratings of 34% very short to short and 66% adequate to surplus.

Subsoil moisture: 56% very short to short and 44% adequate to surplus. That compares to last year's ratings of 38% very short to short and 62% adequate to surplus.

WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

The annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade may be over, but farmers and ranchers should get ready for another parade -- this one of storms -- expected to move across the country in the next couple of weeks, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"It's going to be an active weather week," Baranick said. "This is all being set up by an upper-level trough in the West and a developing ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. The difference between the two will become strong, which increases the strength of the accompanying storms, allowing for otherwise minor disturbances to create larger storm systems with greater impacts.

"A front will sweep across the country through Wednesday. It will get a boost in the upper levels, creating a band of moderate snow from Nebraska to Wisconsin but will also feature severe weather across the South. The Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southeast should see a sizeable threat for strong wind gusts and tornados, mostly on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rains from this system will not be overly heavy, as the system is moving along fairly quickly, but will bring widespread rains to the eastern half of the country, which should help to reduce drought coverage and intensity.

"Another system will move through late this week and weekend. Here, a band of heavier snow is expected across the Northern Plains and far northern Midwest. The front will have less precipitation with it, but it should settle down into the Southern Plains and Tennessee or Ohio Valley this weekend. If it stalls out, we could see more appreciable precipitation along the front going into next week.

"With all of the active weather going on, temperatures will be quite variable. They will rise well above normal ahead of the storms, then fall below normal behind them. Winds are likely to be gusty as well. The difference between the two upper-level features will continue the parade of storms into next week."

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/29)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/28)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 23 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	3121159 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (11/23)

Cold, dry weather prevailed nearly nationwide, with a few exceptions. Notably, mid-November snow squalls developed downwind of the Great Lakes, resulting in localized totals of 2 to 6 feet or more. In addition, precipitation fell in parts of the South, East, and Midwest, primarily early in the drought-monitoring period, although most liquid-equivalent totals were under 2 inches. Snow broadly blanketed the Midwest and interior Northeast, especially on November 15-16, although amounts were mostly light to moderately heavy. Meanwhile, deep snow from a previous storm remained on the ground in much of Montana and North Dakota. As the period progressed, rain lingered in the western Gulf Coast region. Elsewhere, negligible precipitation fell across the western half of the country. On the Plains, the combination of cold weather and soil moisture shortages maintained significant stress on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat. Weekly temperatures averaged at least 10°F below normal nationwide, except in the Desert Southwest and along the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts.

Northeast

Widespread precipitation (rain and wet snow) fell in much of the Northeast in mid-November, providing limited additional drought relief. Still, a pocket of extreme drought (D2) lingered in northeastern Massachusetts, while patchy moderate drought (D1) persisted in the Atlantic Coast States from New Jersey to New Hampshire. In Boston, Massachusetts, year-to-date precipitation of 26.19 inches (69% of normal) through November 21 was nearly a foot below normal.

Southeast

Cold, dry weather dominated the Southeast, except early in the drought-monitoring period when some showers occurred. Overall, only small changes were introduced, although modest expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) was noted, mainly across Alabama and Georgia. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Alabama led the region on November 20 with topsoil moisture rated 48% very short to short, followed by Georgia at 41%.

South

Significant rain fell in parts of the western Gulf Coast region, but most of the remainder of the South experienced cold, dry weather. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Oklahoma and Texas were tied for the regional lead on November 20 with topsoil moisture rated 67% very short to short. On the same date, very poor to poor rating were observed in Texas for 58% of the rangeland and pastures; 52% of the oats; and 49% of the winter wheat. Similarly in Oklahoma, 41% of the winter wheat and 75% of the rangeland and pastures were rated very poor to poor. Amid the cold, dry regime, generally minor changes were introduced, except where heavy rain fell near the Gulf Coast.

Midwest

Light snow broadly fell across the Midwest in mid-November, followed by cold, mostly dry weather. Record-setting snowfall totals for November 15 included 6.6 inches in Alpena, Michigan; 3.5 inches in Waterloo, Iowa; and 2.8 inches in Madison, Wisconsin. Heavier snow lingered downwind of the Great Lakes. In Michigan, daily-record amounts for November 17 reached 7.6 inches in Grand Rapids and 3.3 inches in Lansing. From November 15-19, snowfall in Grand Rapids totaled 26.9 inches, with at least 7 inches falling on each of the last 3 days of the event. Any Midwestern changes in the drought depiction were relatively minor, although separate areas of extreme drought (D2) were bridged in western Kentucky. A few other areas experienced a slight increase in drought coverage, while a few spots in the vicinity of the Great Lakes had minor reductions of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1). On the Ohio River, runoff from the remnants of Hurricane Nicole reached Cairo, Illinois, where the peak gauge reading of 18.62 feet on November 18 was nearly 14 feet higher than last month’s low-water mark. At that time, the Ohio River at Cairo had not been so low since November 1901.

High Plains

Following the previous week’s storm, snow and ice remained on the ground in parts of Montana and the Dakotas. In Bismarck, North Dakota, where the snow depth peaked at 17 inches on November 11, nine inches remained on the ground 10 days later. The freezing and frozen precipitation provided beneficial moisture for rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. Still, drought concerns persisted, especially in drier areas across the southern half of the region. On November 20, the U.S. Department of Agriculture noted topsoil moisture ranging from 63% very short to short in North Dakota to 87% in Nebraska. On the same date, at least 40% of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition in Colorado (52%), Kansas (40%), and Nebraska (40%). Although any changes in the drought depiction were relatively minor, worsening conditions were noted in a few areas. Drought stress on vegetation was aggravated by very cold weather, which led to several record lows. In Kansas, for example, record-setting lows for November 19 plunged to 8°F in Garden City and 11°F in Medicine Lodge.

West

Like much of the rest of the country, the West experienced a full week of cold, dry weather, leading to minimal changes in the drought depiction. Fog, air stagnation, and low temperatures plagued the Northwest. Daily-record lows for November 17 included -16°F in Butte, Montana, and -3°F in Burns, Oregon. On November 18-19, Big Piney, Wyoming, collected consecutive daily-record lows of -15°F. Other Northwestern locations reporting a pair of daily-record lows on November 18-19 were Eugene, Oregon (21 and 18°F); Olympia, Washington (17 and 18°F); and Montana’s Bozeman Airport (-14 and -16°F). On the 18th, lows plunged to -22°F in Butte, Montana, and -21°F at Lake Yellowstone, Wyoming. Early-season snowpack remained mostly favorable west of the Continental Divide, but a return to stormy weather will soon be needed to sustain the promising start to the water year that began on October 1.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, showery weather—heaviest in eastern areas—maintained drought-free conditions. From September 1 – November 21, rainfall in San Juan, Puerto Rico, totaled 25.85 inches (151% of normal).

Patches of moisture embedded in the trade wind flow alternated with a dry air mass over the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this USDM week (November 16-22). Weekly rainfall totals ranged from 0.16 inch to 0.59 inch on St. Croix, 0.40 to 0.82 inch on St. Thomas, and 1.13 to 1.50 inches on St. John. Month-to-date and year-to-date totals were above normal, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicated no drought or abnormal dryness at the 1- to 12-month time scales. USGS data shows that the groundwater level increased slightly this week at St. Croix and has fully recovered on St. Thomas. The USDM status on the three USVI islands was unchanged from last week, with no drought or abnormal dryness occurring.

Pacific

Much of Alaska experienced mild, mostly dry weather during the drought-monitoring period, although ample precipitation in recent months kept the Last Frontier free of dryness and drought. By November 16, temperatures rose to daily-record levels in Sitka (54°F) and King Salmon (50°F). Later in western Alaska, daily-record highs included 38°F (on November 17) in Nome and 32°F (on November 18) in Kotzebue. On the Arctic Coast, Utqiagvik collected a trio of daily-record highs (34, 35, and 28°F) from November 17-19.

In Hawaii, there were again no changes to the drought depiction, with just over 30% of the Aloha State experiencing drought for the third consecutive week. From September 1 – November 21, season-to-date rainfall at Hawaii’s major airport observation sites ranged from 1.31 inches (33% of normal) in Honolulu, Oahu, to 25.95 inches (90%) in Hilo, on the Big Island.

Winds in the tropics typically converge in an Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the ITCZ generates convective showers along its length. The ITCZ and trade-wind troughs spread rain across the middle third of Micronesia during this USDM week (November 16-22). The weather was drier to the north and south of this band. As of the time of this analysis, weekly rainfall totals in the wet band ranged from 2.09 inches at Ailinglaplap to 6.50 inches at Pingelap. In the dry areas north and south, rainfall totals ranged from zero inches at Kapingamarangi to 1.75 inches at Nukuoro. In these areas, 2 inches is the minimum weekly rainfall total required to meet most water needs. Dry high pressure alternated with moist surface troughs to bring around an inch of rain to American Samoa, which is enough to meet weekly water needs in this region.

November rainfall totals for the month to date are generally wet (above the minimum needed to meet most water needs) in American Samoa, the Republic of Palau, the Marianas, and most of the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). There is no drought or abnormal dryness in these areas. Monthly totals were below the monthly minimum in parts of the Marshalls and FSM. Severe drought (D2-SL) continued at Kapingamarangi where no rain was measured this week and 17 of the last 18 weeks have been dry (below the 2-inch weekly minimum). Lingering long-term dryness was reflected in the driest January-October on record at Kapingamarangi, which also had the driest April-October and March-October. This week was wet at Fananu and Lukunor (in the FSM) and Wotje (in the Marshalls), but D0-S (short-term abnormal dryness) continued at these locations to reflect below-minimum monthly totals. Lukunor had the driest August-October through May-October on record.

Looking Ahead

Across much of the country, milder weather will replace previously cold conditions. By November 24, Thanksgiving Day, a storm system will begin to take shape across the south-central U.S. Late in the week, portions of the southern Plains should receive much-needed precipitation, including possible wet snow. Farther east, 5-day rainfall totals from the southeastern Plains to the southern Appalachians could total 2 to 4 inches or more. Late-week rain (locally 1 to 2 inches) may also spread into portions of the East and lower Midwest, including the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, periodic precipitation will spread inland from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies. Much of the remainder of the country, including an area stretching from California to the northwestern half of the Plains and the upper Midwest, will receive little or no precipitation during the next 5 days.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for November 28 – December 2 calls for the likelihood of below-normal temperatures across the northern Plains and much of the West, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail east of a line from the southern Rockies to Lake Michigan. Meanwhile, near- or below-normal precipitation in much of the southern and eastern U.S. should contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Coast to the northern half of the Plains, Midwest, and mid-South.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/22)

USDA Crop Progress Report - 4% of Corn Remains in Fields; Wheat Condition Holds Steady

OMAHA (DTN) -- The U.S. soybean harvest wrapped up last week and just 4% of the nation's corn crop remained in fields, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: 96% of corn was harvested as of Sunday, Nov. 20, up 3 percentage points from 93% the previous week. This year's harvest progress is now 2 percentage points ahead of last year's 94% and 6 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 90%. "Farmers in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan still have work to do, as is typical for this time of year," said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 87% of winter wheat was emerged as of Sunday, 2 percentage points ahead of last year's 85% and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 86%. "South Dakota's emerged winter wheat crops are 10 percentage points below the five-year average for emerged crops, Illinois crops are 8 percentage points below the usual pace and Kansas crops are 7 percentage points below," Hultman said.

-- Crop condition: 32% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week but 12 percentage points below last year's rating of 44% good to excellent. That is the lowest good-to-excellent rating for the crop for this time of year in over 20 years, Hultman noted.

WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Temperatures that are closer to normal for this time of year but also the possibility for storm systems to move across the country over Thanksgiving are on tap this coming week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"The weather this week is at least a bit warmer," Baranick said. "Temperatures are going to be much closer to normal for this time of year than what we saw last week and weekend. The upper-level pattern has also become more progressive, which will allow storm systems to more freely move through the country.

"One of those could occur over the Thanksgiving holiday. The European model has a system forming in the eastern Plains Wednesday night and moving eastward and developing nicely as it moves through the Eastern states Thursday and Friday. This brings widespread precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, though we could see some snow mixing in across the Midwest.

However, the American GFS model completely disagrees, holding back that system across Texas on Thursday and Friday and not bringing precipitation eastward until the weekend. It is interesting because both of these outcomes have some validity to them, but it is unusual that they are so different only two to three days out from the event.

"Either way, though, the western Plains drought areas are unlikely to see much of any precipitation, which continues to hurt any wheat that has not yet gone dormant. Temperatures above normal in these areas later this week and weekend could wake up any wheat that has gone into more of a winter mode, as well, as daytime highs reach up into the 50s and 60s degrees Fahrenheit."

Rural Mainstreet economy shrinks for sixth straight month

OMAHA — The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index fell below growth neutral for a sixth consecutive month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

The region’s overall reading for November once again sank below the growth neutral threshold. The November index did increase to a weak 45.7 from 44.2 in October. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. This was the sixth straight month the overall reading has fallen below growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Last month, almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession,” said Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The region’s farmland price index rose to 68.2 from October’s 58.0. This was the 26th straight month that the index has climbed above 50.0.

Bankers were also asked their expectations for the direction of farmland prices in the next 12 months. Approximately, 60.9% expect farmland prices to plateau at current prices, while 21.7% expect prices to decline over the period. The remaining 17.4% of bankers expect prices to expand, but at a slower pace.

The farm equipment-sales index jumped to a strong 59.5 from October’s weak 47.8. The index has risen above growth neutral for 22 of the last 24 months.

This month, bankers were asked if their bank was asking for greater upfront financial commitments for farm loans. Only 13.6% indicated an increase in such commitments. The remaining 86.4% reported no change in upfront commitments for farm loans.

The November loan volume index dropped to a still strong 65.8 from 76.8 in October. The checking-deposit index increased to 47.7 from October’s 34.0, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments slipped to 45.5 from 46.2 in October.

“Higher farm input costs, greater farm equipment sales, and drought conditions in portions of the region supported strong borrowing from farmers,” Goss said.

The new hiring index for November dipped to 49.1 from October’s 49.2. Labor shortages continue to be a significant issue constraining growth for Rural Mainstreet businesses. Despite labor shortages, Rural Mainstreet expanded non-farm employment by 3.6% over the past 12 months. This compares to 3.2% growth for urban areas of the same 10 states for the same period of time.

The slowing economy, strong energy prices, higher borrowing costs and elevated agriculture input costs pushed the business confidence index down to 27.3 from 30.8 in October. “This is the lowest reading for the confidence index since May 2020,” said Goss.

The home-sales index sank to a very weak 34.8 from October’s 36.0. “This is the sixth straight month that the home-sales index has fallen below growth neutral. A doubling of the 30-year mortgage rate over the past year slowed home sales in the region over that time period,” said Goss.

The retail-sales index for November weakened to 45.5 from October’s 50.0. “Bankers were pessimistic regarding the economic outlook for the Christmas and holiday buying season as they expect growth at less than 1.0%, or 0.8%, from the 2021 season,” said Goss.

The Nebraska RMI remained below growth neutral for November but did rise to 44.7 from October’s 40.1. The state’s farmland-price index rose to 69.2 from last month’s 55.2. Nebraska’s November new-hiring index dipped to 50.7 from 51.5 in October. Over the past 12 months, BLS data show that Nebraska’s Rural Mainstreet Economy experienced a 2.9% increase in non-farm employment, while urban areas in the state added 2.5% in non-farm employment.

Other states included in the 10-state survey are Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/21)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 21 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	3195518 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

Friday Market Watch

LIVESTOCK:

There has been a generally bullish theme to the livestock prices this week as livestock owners pressed the advantage of a short supply situation, with the beef herd diminished by drought and with the supply of market-ready hogs staying current during a traditionally high-volume season. The Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed report showed only 11.7 million head in feedlots. At 98% of last year's Nov. 1 number, this result is even more bullish than pre-report expectations and will lend support to the recent gains in the deferred futures markets. The cash cattle market had a positive week, with most Southern live business transacted at $151 to $152, or $1 to $2 higher than a week ago. In Nebraska and Iowa, live prices ranged from $152 to $155 and dressed deals ranged anywhere from $236 to $244, so the weighted average is mostly steady with last week. On the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, negotiated prices were down $1.46 to a weighted average price of $81.81 with prices ranging from $77 to $90 on 4,746 head, and the five-day rolling average was $84.74 per cwt. 

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $1.55, February live cattle up $2.60, January feeder cattle up $2.20, March feeder cattle up $1.975, December lean hogs down $0.125, February lean hogs up $1.15, December corn up 9 3/4 cents, March corn up 7 cents.

More: Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Markets Flex to Show Strength 

GRAINS:

December corn ended up 1/4 cent and July corn was up 1 cent. January soybeans closed up 11 1/4 cents and July soybeans were up 11 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 3 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/4 cents. 

For the week:

December corn closed up 9 3/4 cents and July corn was up 4 1/4 cents. January soybeans finished down 21 3/4 cents and July soybeans were down 17 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 9 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 10 1/2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 3 3/4 cents.

DAIRY:

Milk futures were under pressure the last half of the week as weakness began filtering into the market. Traders are mixed as to how they view the activity of the week. Some were reluctant to sell out of positions thinking prices will find support as orders will need to be filled for increased holiday demand. Others have been quick to exit their short-term positions. The weakness of butter increased the bearishness. Milk futures have had a nice run higher following the strength of underlying cash. Prices fell substantially one month ago seemingly for no apparent reason other than aggressive selling in the cash market moving buyers to the sidelines. Now, it is a month later and a decline in prices would not be out of the ordinary. Fill-in buying that takes place as orders are placed may drive prices higher until those orders are filled. Cash prices then decline with milk futures following. There is sufficient milk available to the market supplying increased cheese and butter production. Milk production is expected to remain strong through the end of the year and likely through the first quarter of next year. Cow numbers are expected to hold with culling taking place only as needed.

More: Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Markets End on a Bearish Tone

FORAGE: This Week's Hay Markets Here (forage fodder blog)

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The December U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.22 at 106.82. December crude oil declined $1.56 closing at $80.08 per barrel. The Dow gained 199 points closing at 33,746 while the Nasdaq gained one point ending at 11,146. December gold is down $12.20 at $1,750.80, December silver is down $0.05 at $20.93 and December copper is down $0.0520. December ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0156, December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0549 and December natural gas is down $0.086.

This Week's Drought Summary (11/17)

In some areas of the country, storminess chipped away and dryness and drought. Notably, on the 10th, Nicole became the first November hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland since 1985, when Kate struck near Mexico Beach, Florida, on November 21. Nicole, a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds near 75 mph, moved ashore just south of Vero Beach, Florida, around 3 am EST. Nicole’s remnants eventually affected the entire eastern U.S., providing varying degrees of relief from autumn dryness. Some of the heaviest rain, locally 4 inches or more, fell in the central and southern Appalachians and neighboring areas. The rain helped to boost streamflow in the upper reaches of the Ohio River basin, with runoff moving downstream as the drought-monitoring period ended. Farther west, a storm system produced heavy snow and local blizzard conditions in the north-central U.S., while parts of the West received drought-easing precipitation. However, many other areas of the country remained mostly dry. Frigid conditions developed in conjunction with the Western storminess and expanded eastward, while much of the lingering warmth in the South and East was swept away, shortly after Nicole’s departure.

Northeast

On November 11-12, the remnants of Hurricane Nicole delivered significant rain, especially across interior sections of Maryland, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York. On the 11th, daily-record rainfall totals topped the 2-inch mark in locations such as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (2.36 inches), and Wheeling, West Virginia (2.30 inches). Abnormal dryness (D0) was broadly eradicated where the heaviest rain fell. Closer to the coast, however, showers were mostly light and scattered, leading to only minor reductions in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2).

Southeast

In advance of Nicole’s arrival, tropical showers began to overspread Florida by November 8, when daily-record totals included 1.23 inches in Sanford and 1.01 inches in Orlando. Sanford received another daily-record sum (1.95 inches) on the 9th, helping to boost its November 8-10 total to 5.32 inches. On the 10th, the day Hurricane Nicole moved ashore in Florida, daily-record totals reached 2.64 inches in Jacksonville and 2.51 inches in Gainesville. Closer to the point of landfall, peak gusts on the 10th reached 72 mph in Melbourne and 70 mph in Daytona Beach. As rain spread northward on the 11th, daily-record amounts topped 2 inches in many locations, including Roanoke, Virginia (2.88 inches), and Asheville, North Carolina (2.26 inches). Drought-affected areas receiving the heaviest rain experienced improvements of up to one category. On November 13, following Nicole’s departure, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture 57% very short to short in Alabama, a three percentage-point improvement from the previous week. During the same one-week period, topsoil moisture rated very short to short improved from 68 to 48% in South Carolina and from 76 to 44% in Georgia.

South

Late in the drought-monitoring period, precipitation developed across eastern sections of Oklahoma and Texas before spreading into the lower Mississippi Valley. Targeted reductions in drought coverage up to one category were made where the heaviest rain fell. However, much of the region received little or no precipitation. By November 13, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture at least one-half very short to short in Oklahoma (76%), Texas (71%), and Louisiana (58%). On the same date, the recently planted winter wheat crop continued to struggle in the driest areas, with 48% of the crop rated in very poor to poor condition in Texas, along with 42% in Oklahoma. In Arkansas, only 59% of the winter wheat had emerged by November 13, compared to the 5-year average of 66%. Rangeland and pastures continued to reflect the effects of drought, with 82% rated in very poor to poor condition in Oklahoma, along with 62% in Arkansas, and 57% in Texas.

Midwest

Heavy precipitation in the upper Great Lakes region provided drought relief, but many other areas of the Midwest experienced dry weather. Eastern Michigan was one area that had a notable increase in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1). In contrast, heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Nicole fell in eastern sections of Ohio and Kentucky. Zanesville, Ohio, received a daily-record rainfall total of 2.20 inches on November 11. A day earlier in Minnesota, a winter-like storm system had delivered daily-record precipitation totals to Minnesota locations such as Hibbing (1.35 inches) and Brainerd (1.27 inches). Even with nearly an inch of rain falling in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, from November 8-10, the Twin Cities’ year-to-date precipitation remained more than 9 inches below normal. Meanwhile, the Ohio River experienced a beneficial rise from runoff related to Nicole. Along the Kentucky-Indiana border, the Ohio River at the Markland Lower gauge site rose nearly 12 feet between November 12 and 15. Farther downstream, in southern Illinois, the Ohio River climbed above low-water stages of 15.0 feet in Shawneetown and 9.4 feet in Cairo. Just last month, the preliminary minimum stage at Cairo, 4.88 feet on October 17, represented the lowest river level in that location since 1901. Cairo’s stage climbed to 15 feet (and rising) by November 15. Late in the drought-monitoring period, light to moderately heavy snow overspread much of the Midwest. Minneapolis-St. Paul measured a daily-record snowfall (2.5 inches) on November 14. The following day, record-setting snowfall totals for the 15th included 3.5 inches in Waterloo, Iowa, and 2.8 inches in Madison, Wisconsin.

High Plains

An early-season winter storm produced significant, wind-driven snow and freezing rain across parts of the Dakotas. Officially, 17.0 inches of snow—with a liquid equivalency of 1.23 inches—blanketed Bismarck, North Dakota, on November 10, accompanied by wind gusts as high as 37 mph. Elsewhere in North Dakota, wind gusts at the height of the storm reached or exceeded 40 mph in Garrison, Jamestown, and Minot. Bitterly cold weather trailed the storm. The northern Plains’ moisture, while highly beneficial for winter wheat, had a limited immediate effect on the drought situation, leading to only small improvements in the depiction. Farther south, drought continued to gradually worsen in other parts of the region. On November 13, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported topsoil moisture rated very short to short ranging from 65% in North Dakota to 87% in South Dakota. On the same date, winter wheat across the region remained in dismal condition, with more than one-third of the crop rated very poor to poor in Colorado (45%), Kansas (40%), Nebraska (38%), and South Dakota (37%).

West

Over the past couple of weeks, beneficial precipitation has helped to establish high-elevation snowpack and has provided limited relief from long-term drought. The improved moisture has also benefited winter grains and cover crops. The latest round of significant rain and snow overspread much of the region early in the drought-monitoring period and lasted for several days. On November 7, the last full day of the previous period, Spokane, Washington, measured a daily-record snowfall of 3.8 inches. Also on the 7th, Elko, Nevada, set daily records for precipitation (0.76 inch) and snowfall (7.5 inches). Elko’s November 7-9 snowfall reached 13.1 inches. Similarly, Alta, UT, noted a 3-day (ending November 10) storm total of 27.7 inches. On November 8, daily-record amounts in southern California included 1.44 inches at Los Angeles International Airport and 1.13 inches in Burbank. Elsewhere in southern California, 48-hour totals on November 7-9 reached 6.84 inches on Palomar Mountain, 6.76 inches at Big Bear Lake, and 4.80 inches in Idyllwild. In Utah, 24-hour precipitation totals on November 8-9 topped an inch in Randolph (1.20 inches), Logan (1.09 inches), and Zion National Park (1.05 inches). Daily-record snowfall on the 9th totaled 3.1 inches in Pocatello, ID, and 3.0 inches in Kanab, UT. During the extended period of unsettled weather, Pocatello noted 8.8 inches of snow from November 7-10. Later, cold, dry weather replaced previously stormy conditions throughout the West. Sub-zero temperatures were common across the northern Rockies and northern Intermountain West, with Greybull, Wyoming, reporting five consecutive readings below 0°F from November 10-14, along with a daily-record low of -14°F on the 11th. In Glasgow, Montana, a daily-record low of -15°F on November 10 was preceded and accompanied by 11.5 inches of snow, starting on the 8th. Other sub-zero, daily-record lows in Montana included -15°F (on the 8th) in Great Falls and -17°F (on the 11th) in Miles City.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico received spotty showers, heaviest in eastern areas, and remained completely free of dryness and drought for a third consecutive week.

There is no drought or abnormal dryness in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some locations were wet while others had less rain this week. Localized heavy showers gave parts of St. Croix over an inch of rain, with Rohlsen Airport reporting 1.63 inches of rain for the week and a couple CoCoRaHS stations turning in about an inch and a third. Weekly rainfall totals from other St. Croix stations ranged from 0.13 to 0.73 inch. On St. John, weekly rainfall totals ranged from 0.30 inch to 1.03 inches, while on St. Thomas the values ranged from 0.22 to 0.73 inch. Previous weeks have been wet across the islands. Monthly rainfall totals through November 14 at the primary stations included 5.35 inches at King Airport on St. Thomas, 5.95 inches at Rohlsen Airport, and 6.61 inches at Windswept Beach on St. John. These were all well above normal.

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicated normal to wet conditions at all time scales from the last 1 month to last 12 months. Satellite observations showed few areas of stressed vegetation, with the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) reflecting improving conditions. According to the USGS well statistics, groundwater has fully recovered on St. Thomas. The groundwater level on St. Croix continues to rise, but it is still below historical levels.

Pacific

Alaska continued to experience robust storminess and remained free of dryness and drought.

In the wake of drought-easing rainfall, Hawaii turned somewhat drier amid a predominantly trade-wind regime. As a result, no further improvement was noted in Hawaii, following 9 consecutive weeks with a reduction in drought coverage. On the Big Island, Hilo received rainfall totaling 9.44 inches during the first 5 days of November—but netted just 1.62 inches from November 6-15.

Typical tropical weather systems brought rain to parts of the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) this week. A monsoon trough spread rain across Palau and large parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Nukuoro was drenched with 4.77 inches of rain for the week, which ended abnormal dryness there. The wet region was just north of Kapingamarangi, which received just 0.64 inch of rain for the week, with severe drought (D2-SL) continuing. Abnormal dryness (D0-S) continued at Lukunor and began at Fananu, where weekly rainfall totals were only 0.15 inch and 0 inches, respectively, and month-to-date totals were just 0.25 and 1.01 inches, respectively. But these two stations were missing several days of data for this week. The rest of the stations in the FSM and Republic of Palau had no drought or abnormal dryness.

The Marianas and American Samoa were wet this week, with weekly rainfall totals above the 1-inch minimum needed to meet most water needs. Previous weeks were wet, so no drought or abnormal dryness exists in these regions.

A narrow Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) developed across southern parts of the Marshall Islands, giving most islands 2 inches or more of rain this week. Northern islands received less, with Kwajalein reporting only an inch and Wotje reporting no rain this week. Most of the Marshall Islands had no drought or abnormal dryness, except northern areas where Wotje continued abnormally dry (D0-S).

Looking Ahead

Cold weather will continue to dominate much of the country through the weekend and into early next week. At the height of the cold wave, temperatures could fall to 20°F or below as far south as the Tennessee Valley, while freezes may reach nearly to the Gulf Coast in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Florida. Meanwhile, continental U.S. storminess during the next 5 days will be minimal. However, snow squalls will continue for several days downwind of the Great Lakes. In addition, rain may develop in the western Gulf Coast region. Elsewhere, aside from snow showers in the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, dry weather will prevail during the next 5 days from the Pacific Coast eastward across the central and southern Plains, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for November 22 – 26 calls for the likelihood of near- or above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for lingering cooler-than-normal conditions in the middle and northern Atlantic States and parts of the south-central U.S. Meanwhile, near- or below-normal precipitation from California to the Plains, Midwest, and mid-South should contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in the Northwest and large sections of the Gulf and Atlantic Coast States.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/15)