January Agriculture Prices Received Index Down 9.7 Percent, Prices Paid Up 0.9 Percent

January Prices Received Index Down 9.7 Percent 

The January Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 124.6, decreased 9.7 percent from December but increased 11 percent from January 2022. At 118.1, the Crop Production Index was down 8.3 percent from last month but up 13 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 136.3, decreased 9.7 percent from December, but increased 9.7 percent from January last year. Producers received lower prices during January for market eggs, lettuce, milk, and broccoli, but higher prices for cattle, oranges, corn, and apples. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In January, there was decreased marketing of milk, market eggs, cattle, and grapes and increased monthly movement for corn, soybeans, wheat, and strawberries. 

January Prices Paid Index Up 0.9 Percent 

The January Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 139.0, is up 0.9 percent from December 2022 and 7.0 percent from January 2022. Higher prices in January for interest, feeder pigs, taxes, and feeder cattle more than offset lower prices for nitrogen, diesel, hay & forages, and other machinery.

Crop Progress - State Stories

IDAHO: The average temperatures in Idaho for February varied from below normal in most regions of the State to above normal in parts of north and central Idaho. Accumulated precipitation remained below normal in northern Idaho and above normal in southeast Idaho for the water year. In northern Idaho, the area saw cooler than average temperatures throughout February. In southwest Idaho, temperatures were above freezing, with good precipitation. Hay stocks looked good. The groundwork for cropland began. In south-central Idaho, conditions were mild with above average moisture. The feed supply appeared adequate. Soils were too wet or frozen for any early fieldwork. Manure hauling was the primary activity. In eastern Idaho, temperatures were below normal, with heavy snowfall. Snow coverage protected fall crops from extremely cold temperatures. Teton, Fremont, and Madison Counties experienced heavy snowfall, followed by extremely cold temperatures. High winds made livestock care challenging. Bannock, Bingham, and Butte Counties received good precipitation from snow. Calving and lambing season continued on-schedule.

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the month of February 2023, through February 26. Responses were based on the entire month, with consideration for any weather-related impacts that are forecast between now and month’s end. Topsoil moisture 6% very short, 32% short, 59% adequate, 3% surplus. Subsoil moisture 10% very short, 50% short, 37% adequate, 3% surplus. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 8% poor, 70% fair, 21% good. Winter wheat wind damage 62% none, 26% light, 11% moderate, 1% heavy. Winter wheat freeze and drought damage 77% none, 10% light, 11% moderate, 2% heavy. Winter wheat protectiveness of snow cover 1% very poor, 5% poor, 33% fair, 60% good, 1% excellent. Pasture and range condition 14% very poor, 31% poor, 31% fair, 24% good. Livestock grazing accessibility 27% open, 30% difficult, 43% closed. Livestock receiving supplemental feed cattle and calves 99% fed. Cows calved 11%; 5% last year. Livestock receiving supplemental feed sheep and lambs 98% fed. Ewes lambed 7%; 5% last year. The month of February brought below zero temperatures and snowy weather with varying precipitation totals to the State. Temperatures for the month of February ranged from 10 degrees below average to six degrees above average. Along the northern border and eastern half of the State, precipitation remained scarce and totaled 1 inch or less. The southern border and western portion received more precipitation with totals over 1 inch to more than 5 inches at higher elevations. Drought conditions improved slightly in areas experiencing moderate, severe, and extreme drought, however, overall drought conditions continued to persist compared to last month. Snow Water Equivalent totals for the State’s basins remained close to or above average. Of the 13 basins, 7 of them remain above average. In Blaine County, cold temperatures were reported with increased need for supplemental livestock feed. Mineral, Missoula, and Ravalli Counties reported unseasonably cold and snowy conditions at the end of February. Area temperatures in late February were well below zero and frostbite was noted in newborn livestock. Extreme temperature swings stressed mothers and newborn livestock. Golden Valley and Musselshell County reports noted beneficial wet and heavy snow was received during February, but conditions were windy. Yellowstone County reports noted winter weather caused challenging calving and lambing conditions. In Broadwater County, there were concerns fall seeded winter wheat and hay crops experienced freeze damage due to ice. Extent of the damage was not yet known.

NEVADA: For the week ending February 26, 2023 - Days suitable for fieldwork 3.9. Topsoil moisture 20% very short, 40% short, 40% adequate. Subsoil moisture 20% very short, 10% short, 65% adequate, 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 25% very poor, 5% poor, 15% fair, 20% good, 35% excellent. Most of the State received less than an inch of precipitation during the month. Conditions were windy and the ground remained frozen in northern parts of the State. Only 6 percent of the State was in D3 drought, while almost 53% of the State was in D2 drought.

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of February 2023. Topsoil moisture 1% short, 77% adequate, 22% surplus. Subsoil moisture 1% short, 99% adequate. Pasture and range condition 2% very poor, 10% poor, 59% fair, 29% good. Winter wheat condition 6% poor, 28% fair, 66% good. Hay and roughage supplies 2% very short, 39% short, 59% adequate. Stock water supplies 8% short, 92% adequate. Cattle and calves condition 8% poor, 50% fair, 42% good. Sheep and lambs condition 6% poor, 53% fair, 41% good. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 87%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 84%. Cows calved 8%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 12%. Cold winter temperatures along with isolated snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of February. As of February 26, 2023, snowpack in Utah was 153 percent measured as percent of median snowfall Box Elder County reports livestock producers continued feeding cattle due to the cold weather. Beaver County and Box Elder County report livestock producers were dealing with calving issues due to the cold weather.

WASHINGTON: In south-central Washington, it was an extremely dry February. There were small skiffs of snow and wind in recent weeks, with lows dipping to the single digits. Weather was not ideal for crops or livestock, but calving had begun around the region. In Yakima County, nearly all the precipitation came in the first week of February and measured less than half an inch. Producers made significant pruning progress on orchards and vineyards during the warmer times of the month. Northeast Washington had mild weather until mid-February. In Stevens County, blizzard-like conditions were experienced, and temperatures dropped well below zero with the windchill. In east-central Washington, February weather was fair. One week of high winds produced windchill that caused a few calf losses. Winter wheat was in mostly good condition after an assessment of the crop showed minimal damage. In western Douglas County, some areas were still under snow cover, which marked over 100 consecutive days of snow cover. Snow mold, pink and gray, started to damage susceptible winter wheat varieties. In southeast Washington, February conditions were dry with cold temperatures, causing possible livestock losses in the extreme cold and heavy winds.

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of February 2023. Topsoil moisture 20% short, 65% adequate, 15% surplus. Subsoil moisture 1% very short, 34% short, 60% adequate, 5% surplus. Winter wheat condition 4% very poor, 18% poor, 58% fair, 20% good. Hay and roughage supplies 23% very short, 16% short, 61% adequate. Livestock condition 1% very poor, 1% poor, 13% fair, 84% good, 1% excellent. Stock water supplies 1% very short, 10% short, 88% adequate, 1% surplus. Pasture and range condition 1% very poor, 36% poor, 33% fair, 29% good, 1% surplus. Cows calved 4%. Ewes lambed 3%. Sheep shorn 10%. Wyoming saw continued relief from drought conditions in February, with most of the State receiving above normal amounts of moisture. Isolated areas of south-central and north-central Wyoming received precipitation levels as much as 2 inches above average. Some parts of the west, south, and east, however, received below average levels of moisture. Temperatures ran below normal for all of Wyoming in February. Western and central portions of the State were hit the hardest with frigid weather. Areas of Fremont County experienced temperatures in a range of 9-15 degrees below normal. According to the United States Drought Monitor report published on February 23, 2023, the amount of land rated drought free increased to 36.6 percent, compared to 29.8 percent as published on January 26, 2023. The amount of land rated abnormally dry stood at 19.6 percent, compared to 25.4 percent at the end of January. Moderate drought was found in 34.1 percent of Wyoming, a significant increase from 24.0 percent last month. Severe drought fell to 8.7 percent, compared to 17.7 percent last month. Extreme drought improved to 1.3 percent, compared to 3.1 percent at the end of January. In Carbon County, some producers reported that the severe winter conditions required purchasing supplemental feed and clearing grounds of snow to bring feed to livestock. A report from Goshen County indicated that soil moisture levels were improving. The bitter cold, however, was hard on livestock and hay supplies were low. Snow covered much of Laramie County. Grasses were expected to improve as warmer weather approached, but it was difficult to assess field conditions at this time. Heavy snowpack was found in Lincoln County, with southern areas seeing the highest amounts of snow. With the higher levels of snow and continued stormy weather, future overland flooding remained a concern with spring on the way. Farmers and ranchers were looking forward to the end of the cold season. Platte County experienced a lot of wind in February. Combined with the snow, producers were seeing very high snow drifts. Though heavy snow systems brought good amounts of moisture, winds were pulling some of that moisture out of pastures and fields. Producers were concerned that soil moisture levels remained low as a result, and more snow or rain was needed.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/28)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/27)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 45 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2222676 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

Friday Market Watch

LIVESTOCK:

The livestock complex faced some hesitancy throughout the day and closed mostly lower, but the market's fundamental outlook remains extremely positive, especially in regard to the cattle complex. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.15 with a weighted average of $77.68 on 7,149 head. 

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $1.63, April live cattle up $0.72; March feeder cattle up $2.55, April feeder cattle up $3.13; April lean hogs up $0.75, June lean hogs up $0.75; March corn down $0.28, May corn down $0.28.

More: Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Livestock Futures Struggle but Fundamentals Remain Strong

GRAINS:

May corn closed down 10 cents and December corn was down 9 1/4 cents. May soybeans closed down 8 cents and November soybeans were down 13 3/4 cents. May KC wheat closed down 21 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 28 3/4 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 21 1/2 cents.

For the week:

May corn closed down 28 1/4 cents and December corn was down 17 1/4 cents. May soybeans closed down 3 cents and November soybeans were down 12 1/4 cents. May KC wheat closed down 60 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 54 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 41 cents.

DAIRY:

Block cheese price declined 7 cents, closing at $1.88 with no loads traded. There were five uncovered offers remaining at the close with no buyers showing up during spot trading Friday. Barrel cheese price declined 2.75 cents, closing at $1.54 with seven loads traded. Everyone who came to do business went home satisfied. Dry whey price increased 0.25 cent, closing at 46.50 with no loads traded. Class III futures are 3 to 19 cents lower. Butter price increased 5 cents, closing at $2.43 with no loads traded. A buyer was aggressively looking for a load, but was unable to entice a seller even after raising the price. Grade A nonfat dry milk price remained unchanged at $1.2150 with no load traded. Class IV futures are 1 to 8 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.50 cent lower to 1.00 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.50 cent lower to 0.25 cent higher. 

More: Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Class III Futures Closed Lower

FORAGE: This Week's Hay Markets (forage fodder blog)

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The March U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.61 at 105.15. The Dow lost 337 points closing at 32,817 while the Nasdaq lost 195 points closing at 11,395. April gold is down $8.50 at $1,818.30, May silver is down $0.48 at $20.83 and May copper is down $0.1065. March crude oil gained $0.93 closing at $76.32 per barrel, April crude oil is up $0.97 at $76.36, April ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0764, April RBOB gasoline is down $0.0024 and April natural gas is up $0.093.

This Week's Drought Summary (2/23)

An upper-level ridge over the northeastern North Pacific Ocean deflected Pacific storm systems away from the West Coast of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (February 15-21). This resulted in a generally drier-than-normal week over much of the West. An upper-level trough developed over the western CONUS downstream from the ridge, and the trough was responsible for a cooler-than-normal week over the West. Strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico extended into a ridge across the East Coast. A southerly flow between the trough and eastern ridge spread warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico across the eastern CONUS and directed weather systems northeastward from the southern Plains to Great Lakes. Two weather systems early in the week generated above-normal precipitation across parts of the central to eastern CONUS. As the week ended, weather systems moved across the northern tier states, bringing areas of snow. The week was wetter than normal across parts of the northern Rockies, from the Four Corners states to western Great Lakes, and from the central Gulf Coast states to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. It was a drier-than-normal week across much of the West, southern Plains, coastal Southeast, and southern Great Lakes to New England, and parts of the northern to central Plains. Drought or abnormal dryness expanded where it continued dry in parts of the Pacific Northwest, southern Plains, and Florida. Drought or abnormal dryness contracted or reduced in intensity where it was wet over parts of the Four Corners area, southern and central Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Big Island in Hawaii.

Northeast

An inch or more of precipitation fell across southern parts of the Northeast region, with West Virginia receiving over 2 inches. Half an inch or more extended northward to southern Pennsylvania and southern New England, while half an inch fell over northern Maine. The rest of the Northeast had less than half an inch. Other than abnormal dryness contracting in West Virginia, there was no change in status for the Northeast, with a small area of moderate drought remaining over eastern Maryland and spots of abnormal dryness scattered across other states.

Southeast

Weekly precipitation totals across the Southeast region ranged from over 2 inches in the north and west to no precipitation across much of the Florida peninsula. Abnormal dryness expanded to all of the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Otherwise, there was no change in status for the Southeast, with some moderate drought remaining in Florida and southeast Georgia and a few spots of abnormal dryness in other states.

South

Two inches or more of precipitation fell across eastern portions of the South region, specifically parts of Mississippi and much of Tennessee. Half an inch or more occurred from there to eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. For the rest of Oklahoma and Texas, the week continued a dry pattern. Abnormal dryness and moderate to extreme drought contracted in eastern Oklahoma, due to wet conditions this week and previous weeks and improved soil moisture and streamflow conditions, and abnormal dryness contracted in northeast Texas. But extreme to exceptional drought expanded in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, while abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought expanded in parts of southern Texas along the coast and along the Rio Grande River where streamflow and soil moisture conditions deteriorated and precipitation deficits continued to grow. According to media reports, 80-mph winds created a dust storm in the Oklahoma panhandle that caused a multiple car pileup, killing a driver.

Midwest

Multiple storm tracks gave the Midwest region wet conditions along the Ohio River in the south and across the Upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes in the north and west. Half an inch to an inch or more of precipitation fell in these wet areas, while a dry band of less than a quarter of an inch stretched from central Illinoi to northern Ohio and southeast Michigan. Totals over 3 inches resulted in flood warnings in Kentucky. Soils in the Upper Mississippi Valley were dry in the fall, and these dry conditions were locked in place as the soils froze with the onset of winter. The recent precipitation reduced moderate to extreme drought in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, but the extent of abnormal dryness was kept intact to reflect the dry and frozen soils that haven’t benefited yet from the rain and snow. Abnormal dryness contracted in southern Indiana, and abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought contracted in northwest Missouri. Moderate to severe drought continued in Lower Michigan.

High Plains

A storm system tracked across southern parts of the High Plains region early in the week, with another late in the week tracking across northern Wyoming. Weekly precipitation totals were half an inch to over an inch in parts of Wyoming, Colorado, northern and eastern Kansas, southern and eastern Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota. The rest of the region received little to no precipitation. Moderate to exceptional drought was trimmed in a few areas of northwestern and eastern Kansas, and adjacent parts of Nebraska, while abnormal dryness and severe drought were trimmed in southern Colorado. No change was made to the drought areas in the rest of the region.

West

Half an inch of precipitation fell over a few areas in the Four Corners states and in western Oregon, while 2 inches or more of precipitation occurred over parts of the Washington Cascades and northern Rockies. But for the most part, little to no precipitation fell across large parts of the West region. Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought were trimmed in northwest New Mexico where this week was wet and moist conditions were evident in soil moisture, snowpack, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicators. But low streamflow, snowpack, soil moisture, and SPI values prompted expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought along coastal Oregon and southwest Washington, as well as in the Idaho panhandle. While many reservoirs in California have recovered from the recent atmospheric river events that have struck that state, reservoirs in Oregon continue at drastically low levels and some reservoirs in Utah remain at low levels. As of February 21, 2023, the water level in Lake Powell was 3521.53 feet above sea level, which is the lowest level recorded since the lake was filled in the 1960s. As noted by the media, Lake Powell is a man-made reservoir that sits along the Colorado River on the Arizona-Utah border. It generates electricity for about 4.5 million people and is a key part of the Colorado River Basin system, which supplies water to more than 40 million people. Further north, an extension agent in Blaine County, Montana, reported the drought is causing reduced water for irrigation, later emergence of spring grasses, and grazing must be supplemented and water hauled for livestock

Caribbean

Rain fell across the northeastern half of Puerto Rico, with a few locations receiving an inch or more for the week. But most of the island was drier than normal. There were local observations of vegetation drying along the southeastern coast, but other indicators (streamflow, reservoirs, groundwater) were optimal, so there was no change in status for Puerto Rico.

Most of the U.S. Virgin Islands have remained drier-than-normal this week. The satellite data (i.e., National Weather Service’s seven-day quantitative precipitation estimates) and station observations show that the rainfall amount received over most parts of the islands was less than 0.5 inches. The one- and three-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps shown that conditions are still dry at St. Thomas and St. Croix. However, St. John was in relatively near-normal condition. Vegetation Health Index there has been no stress showed on vegetation during this week.

Specifically, St. John (Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach) reported 0.31 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on February 22 was 11.53 ft below land surface. Even though there has been a decreasing trend in water since November 2022, the depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well is relatively lower than it was September to November 2022, resulting in a near-normal condition, so St. John remains at the status quo of drought-free conditions.

St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen AP) reported 0.16 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on February 22 was 27.00 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (about 2 ft) since November 25, when it was 25.04 ft below land surface. This week’s 1-month and 3-month SPI also confirms dry conditions persist on the island, so St. Croix remained in short-term moderate drought (D1-S) this week.

St. Thomas (Cyril E. King Airport) received 0.49 inch of rain this week. There was also an increase in depth to water level at St. Thomas. The depth to water level at Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on February 22 was 7.62 ft below land surface. Although conditions were slightly approved on the island, St. Thomas remained in short-term moderate drought (D1-S) this week due to previous deficits.

Pacific

Drier- and colder-than-normal weather dominated Alaska, except for southern coastal locations. But with near to above-normal snowpack, no change was made to the depiction in Alaska, which remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

In Hawaii, a Kona Low dropped one to two feet of rain over the Big Island, and 3 to 6 inches of rain were recorded over Oahu. Maui was the driest island with less than 3 inches recorded. But all of the main islands were wetter than normal this week, with this week’s rainfall giving the Big Island above-normal statistics for the last 1 to 6 months. Abnormal dryness (D0) was eliminated from the Big Island, leaving a small area of D0 remaining over Maui.

American Samoa remained free of drought this week. With one day missing, weekly rainfall amounts of 3.01 inches at Siufaga Ridge, 2.91 inches at Toa Ridge and 6.46 inches at Pago Pago.

Drought is not currently a concern in Palau, as rainfall totaled 1.46 inches at Koror COOP and 1.80 inches at Palau IAP (Airai).

Wetter-than-normal conditions returned to the Mariana Islands this week. Rainfall amounts on Rota and Guam were 3.65 and 3.15 inches, respectively. On Saipan, rainfall amounts observed at Saipan (IAP, manual gauge), Saipan (ASOS) and Saipan (NPS) were 1.90, 1.74 and 1.37 inches, respectively. The Mariana Islands remained drought free this week.

Wet weather continued at Yap, Korae and Ulithi this week, where rain totaled 2.89, 2.44 and 2.18 inches, respectively. Pohnpei reported 1.43 inches of rain this week while Chuuk, Nukuoro and Woleai each received below-normal rainfall amounts of 0.48, 0.89 and 0.99 inches, respectively. These locations remained free of abnormal dryness, though, due to wetter preceding conditions. Dry conditions continued on Kapingamarangi receiving 0.46 inch of precipitation this week as the island remains in short-term abnormally dry condition. On Lukunoch, conditions continued to deteriorate this week resulting in three consecutive weeks of below normal precipitation (i.e. 1.75”, 0.45” and 0.29”). Lukunoch was moved to abnormally dry conditions this week. Similarly, Pingelap has deteriorated to abnormal dry conditions this week due to below-normal precipitation over the past three weeks (i.e. 0.04”, 1.06” and 0.77”). No depiction was made for Fananu due to missing data (six days missing).

Heavy rains were observed on Mili and Jaluit this week with 3.30 inches and 2.57 inches, respectively, allowing these locations to remain free of drought. Majuro reported 1.18 inches of rain this week and remained free of drought. Ailinglaplap received no precipitation this week but remained drought free due to above-normal precipitation from previous weeks. Dry conditions continued on Wotje receiving no precipitation this week as the island remains in short-term abnormally dry condition. On Kwajalein, dry conditions continued the past five weeks (i.e., 0.43, 0.23, 0.04, 0.18 and 0.46 inches of rain, consecutively). Thus, Kwajalein deteriorated to moderate drought conditions. No depiction was made for Utirik due to missing data.

Looking Ahead

A strong Pacific weather system moved across the West on February 22, with a low pressure and frontal system spreading rain and snow from the Plains to Mississippi Valley and across northern states. A series of weather systems will follow during February 23-28, spreading an inch or more of precipitation from Oklahoma to the Great Lakes, from the Tennessee to Ohio Valleys, and across much of the Northeast, as well as along the West Coast and into the interior West. Some precipitation totals will exceed 2 inches in the Upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, and exceed 4 inches along coastal Washington and California and into the Sierra Nevada range. The Gulf of Mexico Coast, western parts of the Great Plains, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast will see little to no precipitation. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will keep temperatures warmer than normal from the southern Plains to Ohio Valley and Gulf Coast to Mid-Atlantic Coast, while temperatures will be cooler than normal across the Far West to northern Plains. For February 28-March 8, the outlook favors colder-than-normal weather across the West and Alaska, with warmer-than-normal weather from the southern Plains to Atlantic Coast and Great Lakes. Above-normal precipitation is likely across Alaska, the western CONUS, and much of the CONUS east of the Rockies except along the Gulf Coast where below-normal precipitation is favored.

USDA Forecasts Bigger Crops, Lower Prices for 2023-24 Crops

ARLINGTON, Va. (DTN) -- U.S. farmers are forecast to plant 91 million acres of corn, up 2.4 million acres from last year, and produce a 15-billion-bushel crop while soybean acres will hold pat at 87.5 million acres and produce 4.5 billion bushels, according to USDA's initial Outlook on the 2023-24 crops.

USDA also forecasts lower corn and soybean prices as production increases as well.

USDA released its Grain and Oilseeds Outlook at the opening of its annual Outlook Forum on Thursday in Arlington, Va.

CORN

USDA forecasts higher corn production for the 2023-24 crop year with 91 million acres planted and a record yield of 181.5 bushels per acre, producing a projected 15.09-billion-bushel crop, about 10% larger than a year ago. If realized, it would be the second-largest crop on record behind the 2016-17 crop year.

The higher production is expected to bring down the average farmgate price $1.10 a bushel from last year to $5.60 a bushel.

Citing the 181.5 bpa, USDA said the record yield forecast is based on a "weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather."

Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.38 billion bushels, up about 8% from the 2022-23 crop.

Looking at use, feed, seed and industrial use is unchanged at 6.69 billion bushels. Corn use for ethanol is projected at 5.25 billion bushels, "based on expectations of flat motor gasoline consumption."

Feed and residual use is projected to rise 6% to 5.6 billion bushels due to higher corn production and expected lower prices during the year.

Exports are expected to rise 275 million bushels to 2.2 billion bushels due to "reduced exportable supplies in Ukraine," and modest global trade growth.

Ending stocks are forecast to rise 620 million bushels to 1.887 billion bushels, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 13%.

SOYBEANS

While planted acreage would remain unchanged at 87.5 million acres, USDA forecasts yields will rise 2.5 bushels per acre to 52 bpa. That would boost production 5% to 4.5 billion bushels, "assuming normal growing-season weather."

The average farmgate price for soybeans is projected at $12.90 a bushel, down $1.40 a bushel from the 2022-23 crop.

Domestic soybean crush is projected to rise to a record 2.31 billion bushels, "supported by meal demand growth and high prices for biofuel feedstocks in the United States." Soybean oil for biofuels is expected to grow 8% to 12.5 billion pounds in 2023-24.

USDA cited the driving increase for soybean oil in biofuels that has pushed up U.S. prices and driven down exports. "This trend is expected to continue under current state mandates and the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed rule for 2023 through 2025," citing the EPA Renewable Fuels Standard rules.

Soybean exports for 2023-24 are forecast at 2.03 billion bushels, up 35 million bushels from the 2022-23 crop year. With harvest underway in Brazil, USDA cites that South American supplies will be higher this year as the U.S. export season gets underway. "With another large South American harvest expected in early 2024, export competition will likely limit potential gains in U.S. exports in the second half of the marketing year."

Soybean ending stocks for 2023-24 are projected at 290 million bushels, up 65 million bushels from the 2023-24 forecast.

WHEAT

U.S. wheat production is projected to increase 14% for 2023-24 to 1.887 billion bushels on both higher acreage and yield. Total wheat planted acre is projected at 49.5 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from the 2022-23 crop, and the highest since 2016-17.

The average farmgate price for wheat is forecast at $8.50 a bushel, down 50 cents a bushel from the 2022-23 crop.

The all-wheat yield is projected to increase 6% to 49.2 bpa. Total wheat supply will hit 2.575 billion bushels, up 107 million bushels from last year's crop.

Total domestic use is forecast at 1.142 billion bushels, up 17 million bushels. Exports are forecast at 825 million bushels, up 75 million bushels from 2022-23. That puts total use at 1.967 billion bushels, up 67 million bushels from a year ago. All-wheat ending stocks will come in at 608 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from a year ago.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/21)

 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/20)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 43 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2287761 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

Friday Market Watch

LIVESTOCK:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the live cattle market rallied on the wins the cash cattle market made, but both the feeder cattle and lean hog markets faced some resistance. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, down $0.33 with a weighted average of $76.49 on 6,241 head. 

Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $2.38, April live cattle up $0.70; March feeder cattle up $0.13, April feeder cattle down $0.22; April lean hogs up $1.95, June lean hogs up $1.08; March corn down $0.03, May corn down $0.01.

More: Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Tiptoe Around Complex Ahead of Close

GRAINS:

March corn closed up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and May corn was up 2 1/2 cents. March soybeans closed up 3/4 cent and May soybeans were up 1 cent. March KC wheat closed up 8 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1/2 cent and May Minneapolis wheat was down 3/4 cent.

For the week:

March corn finished the week down 2 3/4 cents, with December down 1/4 cent. March soybeans were down 15 1/4 cents, and November closed up 7 1/2 cents. Kansas City March wheat closed down 2 1/2, Chicago wheat down 20 1/2, and Minneapolis March down 1/2 cent for the week.

DAIRY:

Both block and barrel prices remained unchanged at $1.88 and $1.5475, respectively. There were no loads traded of blocks with three loads of barrels traded. It may be difficult for Class III milk futures to gain much traction in the current market environment. Dry whey price increased a penny, closing at 45 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are mixed, ranging from 8 cents lower to 3 cents higher. Butter price declined 4.50 cents, closing at $2.3750 with three loads traded. Current fundamentals do not suggest butter will establish a long-term trend higher as of yet. Price will remain choppy. Grade A nonfat dry milk price was unchanged at $1.22 with no loads traded. Class IV futures have not yet traded with wide bid and offers posted. If they do, prices will be lower. Butter futures are 0.65 cent lower to 3.90 cents higher on light trading activity. Dry whey futures are 0.02 cent lower to 0.25 cent higher. Dairy markets will be closed on Monday and will reopen Monday evening at the usual time.

More: Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Mixed Futures

FORAGE: This Week's Hay Markets (Forage Fodder Blog)

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The March U.S. Dollar Index is trading up 0.019 at 103.810. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 60.66 points at 33,757.51. April gold is up $1.00 at $1,852.80, March silver is up $0.07 at $21.78 and March copper is down $0.0095 at $4.1260. March crude oil is down $2.10 at $76.39, April heating oil is down $0.0856, March RBOB is down $0.0346 and March natural gas is down $0.133.

This Week's Drought Summary (2/16)

 An active weather week over much of the South, Southeast and portions of the Midwest allowed many locations in eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, central Mississippi, northern Florida, southern Georgia and into coastal areas of South Carolina to record above-normal precipitation. Dry conditions dominated the West and northern Plains. Temperatures were well above normal in the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with departures of 15-20 degrees above normal. Most areas east of the Missouri River were above normal for the week with departures of 5-15 degrees above normal common. Cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the intermountain West and into the Four Corners region where temperatures were 5-10 degrees below normal for the week.

Northeast

Temperatures for this week were 9-12 degrees above normal over the region and precipitation was isolated to northern extents along the Great Lakes and Canadian border and to the south in Virginia. Currently, drought is not an issue in the region, with only one small area of moderate drought along the Virginia coast. Abnormally dry conditions were expanded this week over western Maryland and into southern Pennsylvania. Several pockets of dryness were being monitored in the region for potential degradation soon.

Southeast

Precipitation was isolated in the region, with portions of south Florida, northern Georgia and Alabama being the driest in the region with below-normal precipitation. The greatest precipitation was recorded from north Florida northward along the coast into the Carolinas where over 200% of normal rain was observed. The recent precipitation allowed for severe drought to be removed from all of Florida and Georgia and for some improvements to moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions in both states. North Florida did see an expansion of moderate drought where the rains missed and conditions continued to be dry in the short term. A new area of moderate drought was also introduced in south Florida based on the short-term dryness of the region. Improvements were made in both North Carolina and South Carolina in response to the recent wet pattern where all abnormal dryness was removed from South Carolina and moderate drought was removed and abnormally dry conditions improved in North Carolina. A small area of abnormally dry conditions was also improved in southern Alabama.

South

Precipitation was widespread throughout most of eastern Oklahoma, northern Texas, northern Arkansas and portions of southern Louisiana with most of these areas recording 150-200% of normal precipitation for the week. Temperatures were warmest in the eastern extent where Arkansas and Louisiana were 4-6 degrees above normal while most of Oklahoma and Texas were 2-4 degrees below normal. The recent wetter pattern allowed for most of eastern Oklahoma to observe a full category improvement to the drought intensities with abnormally dry conditions removed from the eastern extent and some exceptional drought improved as well. Areas of eastern Texas had improvements made to moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions but saw degradations, mainly on long-term indicators highlighting the changes over portions of the panhandle, central and south Texas.

Midwest

An active storm pattern through Missouri and into Illinois and Michigan was the focus of the widespread precipitation through this portion of the region. Areas of the upper Midwest as well as the eastern extent of the region were quite dry for the week. In the storm track, most areas were well above normal for weekly precipitation and some recorded over 400% of normal for the week. Temperatures for the week were well above normal for the entire region with areas of the upper Midwest 12-16 degrees above normal. The active weather over some of the drought areas allowed for improvements this week. Most of Missouri had a full category improvement with just some lingering moderate drought in the southwest and in the far northwest corner of the state. Abnormally dry conditions were removed from southern Illinois and improvements were made in western and northern portions of the state. Southern portions of Iowa also saw enough improvement in the indicators to show improved conditions. The region was also being impacted by widespread precipitation after the data cutoff for this week, and this new information will be analyzed in the next map.

High Plains

Temperatures for the week were warmest over the eastern and northern extent of the region with departures 10-15 degrees above normal while the western areas were 5-10 degrees below normal in portions of Wyoming and Colorado. Most of the region was dry this week with the exception of eastern Kansas where over 200% of normal precipitation was recorded for the week. As temperatures warmed up and the benefits of the snowpack over portions of southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska started to be observed, improvements were made this week to the drought intensity levels along the South Dakota and Nebraska borders. A full category improvement was also made to conditions in eastern Kansas where more moderate drought was eliminated and improvements to severe and extreme drought were made in southeast portions of the state. Some slight degradation was introduced in Wyoming where severe drought was expanded in the east and southwest portions of the state.

West

Cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated most of the region outside of Montana where temperatures were 15-20 degrees above normal for the week. Most of the region was dry with only portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado, southern Montana and portions of the Pacific Northwest recording above-normal precipitation. Snowpack over the region remains well above normal. With the continued wet pattern over the Southwest, portions of Arizona and New Mexico were improved this week with moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions reduced in both states. Drier conditions in Washington allowed for some expansion of abnormally dry conditions while a reassessment of the extreme drought in northwest Nevada determined that conditions had improved enough to remove all of the extreme drought in this region.

Caribbean

No changes were made this week in Puerto Rico.

Most of the U.S. Virgin Islands have remained in drier-than-normal conditions. The satellite data (i.e., National Weather Service’s seven-day quantitative precipitation estimates) and station observations show that the rainfall amount received over most parts of the islands was less than 0.4 inches. The one- and three-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps showed that conditions have been significantly dry at St. Thomas and St. Croix. However, St. John was in relatively near-normal condition.

Specifically, St. John (Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach) reported 0.33 inches of rain this week. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on February 14 was 10.94 ft below land surface. Even though there has been a decreasing trend in water since November 2022, the depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well is relatively lower than it was September to November 2022, resulting in a near-normal condition, so St. John remains at the status quo of drought-free conditions.

St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen AP) reported 0.27 inches of rain this week. The depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on February 14 was 28.16 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (about 3 ft) since November 17, when it was 25.27 ft below land surface. Reports also showed that the wintertime precipitation on St. Croix is below normal and is the eighth driest in 64 years of data. This week’s 3-month SPI also confirms St. Croix is in at least moderate drought.

No rain was reported on St. Thomas (Cyril E. King Airport) this week. There was also an increase in depth to water level at St. Thomas. The depth to water level at Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on February 14 was 9.51 ft below land surface. Thus, St. Thomas remained in short-term moderate drought (D1-S) this week.

Pacific

No changes were made this week in Alaska.

In Hawaii, a wet trade wind pattern continued, which enabled the windward side of the Big Island to recover from their drought issues back in January. One producer on the east side of the Big Island reported that his catchment tank is full. Streamflow values from across the state are near to above normal at nearly all sites for the 7-, 14- and 28-day periods. Conditions are expected to remain wet as a low-pressure system is forecast to bring significant rainfall later this week. The remaining abnormally dry conditions were removed from Molokai and most of the rest of the abnormally dry conditions were removed from Maui. On the Big Island, the east side of the island had some abnormally dry conditions removed because of above-normal rainfall.

Heavy rains were observed across the Marshall Islands this week. Because of the wet conditions this week, Ailinglapalap and Majuro improved to be free of abnormal dryness. This week, Ailinglapalap received 3.07 inches of rain. Similarly, 7.02 inches of rain was reported on Majuro, allowing the island to be free of drought. Jaluit received 3.64 inches of rain and remained drought free. On Mili, 10.93 inches of rain was reported this week, allowing Mili to be drought free. This week, Wotje reported no rain (two days missing). Dry conditions continued the past four weeks at Wotje (i.e., 0.7, 0.68, 0 and 1.30 inches of rain, consecutively), and the island remains in short-term abnormally dry condition. Similarly, Kwajalein reported only 0.18 inches of rain and remains in abnormally dry condition. No depiction was made for Utirik due to missing data.

American Samoa remained free of drought this week. Pago Pago and Toa Ridge (NPS in American Samoa) received 0.86 and 1.58 inches of rain, respectively. With one day missing, Siufaga Ridge (NPS in American Samoa) reported 1.46 inches of rain. Palau IAP (Airai) reported 4.43 inches this week. Koror COOP station also reported 3.37 inches of rain, resulting in drought-free conditions.

Most parts of the Federated States of Micronesia remained drought free this week. Only Kapingamarangi, which received 1.26 inches of rain this week, remained in long-term abnormally dry condition. On Fananu, 1.76 inches of rain was reported this week, but the island remained free of drought or abnormal dryness because of the significant amounts of rain in January. On Kosrae, 4.84 inches of rain was reported this week (with three days missing), allowing the island to remain drought free. On Lukunor, only 0.28 inches of rainfall was reported this week (with five days missing). Wet conditions were observed in January (10.45 inches of rain). Thus, Lukunor remains drought free. On Nukuoro, 2.81 inches of rain was reported this week (three days missing), allowing the island to be free of drought or abnormal dryness. Only 0.47 inches of rain was reported on Pingelap with six days missing. However, due to the wet conditions that prevailed in the past few weeks, Pingelap remained drought free. On Yap, only 1.68 inches of rain was reported this week. However, because of wet conditions in January, Yap remained free of dryness. On Ulithi, only 0.64 inches of rain was reported this week (one day missing). Even though dry conditions were reported in the past two weeks (i.e., 0.72 and 0.26 inches of rain, respectively), Ulithi received about 14 inches of rain in January, allowing the island to remain drought free. On Woleai, 3.51 inches of rain was reported this week (one day missing), so it remains drought free. This week, 4.10 inches of rain was reported on Pohnpei with three days missing, so the island remained free of dryness. At Chuuk, 14.24 inches of rain was reported this week with one day unaccounted for, allowing the island to be free of dryness.

This week, drier-than-normal conditions continued across the Mariana Islands. Rainfall amounts on Guam and Rota were 0.82 and 0.74 inches (one day missing), respectively. In addition, dry conditions prevailed in the past two weeks across the islands. However, due to the wet January, the island remained free of dryness or drought. The amounts of rainfall observed on Saipan (IAP, manual gauge), Saipan (ASOS) and Saipan (NPS) were 0.23, 0.19 and 0.31 inches, respectively. Thus, Saipan remains drought free this week.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, a storm system will track out of the Four Corners region and onto the Plains, bringing with it widespread precipitation from Colorado, through the Plains and into the Midwest. Widespread precipitation is also expected throughout the South and into the Mid-Atlantic where up to 2-3 inches of rain is anticipated. Much of the southern and northern Plains as well as the West will be dry during this time. Temperatures are expected to be above normal over much of the southern Plains, Midwest and eastward with departures of 8-10 degrees above normal. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected over the central to northern Plains, and over the West where departures of up to 15 degrees below normal will be expected over Wyoming.

The 6–10 day outlooks show above-normal chances of below-normal temperatures over the northern Rocky Mountains, the Pacific Northwest and much of the West. The best chances of above-normal temperatures will be over the Southeast and through much of the South and Mid-Atlantic. Most of the country is showing above-normal chances of recording above-normal precipitation with the best chances over the Great Basin and in the Mid-Atlantic. South Texas and the peninsula of Florida are still showing a better likelihood of below-normal precipitation.