September Ag Prices Received Index Down 2.9 Percent; Prices Paid Index Up 0.1 Percent

September Prices Received Index Down 2.9 Percent 

The September Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 122.6, decreased 2.9 percent from August and 7.1 percent from September 2022. At 113.9, the Crop Production Index was down 4.2 percent from last month and 11 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 133.1, decreased 0.9 percent from August, and 2.6 percent from September last year. Producers received lower prices for corn, hogs, soybeans, and lettuce during September, but higher prices for broilers, milk, grapes, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In September, there was decreased marketing of cattle, wheat, cotton, and peaches and increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, dry beans, and apples. 

September Prices Paid Index Up 0.1 Percent 

The September Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.8, is up 0.1 percent from August 2023 but unchanged from September 2022. Higher prices in September for feeder cattle, feeder pigs, diesel, and nitrogen more than offset lower prices for feed grains, complete feeds, concentrates, and hay & forages.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/31)

 

USDA Crop Progress Report - Corn 71% Harvested, Soybeans 85% Harvested as of Oct. 29

OMAHA (DTN) -- Despite heavy precipitation that fell over much of the Plains and Midwest last week, the U.S. corn and soybean harvests overall managed to stay ahead of the five-year averages, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest moved ahead 12 percentage points to reach 71% complete as of Sunday. That is 3 percentage points behind last year's pace of 74% but still 5 percentage points ahead of 66% for the five-year average. "Illinois is 81% harvested, and Iowa is at 77%," noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. "Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin have the furthest to go at 29%, 30% and 35% harvested, respectively."

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest progressed 9 percentage points to reach 85% complete as of Sunday. That is 2 points behind last year's 87% but 7 points ahead of the five-year average of 78%. "Illinois is 89% harvested, and Iowa is at 93%," Hultman said. "North Carolina is only 34% harvested, not unusual for this time of year."

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting advanced 7 percentage points last week to reach 84% complete as of Sunday. That is 2 percentage points behind last year's 86% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 85%.

-- Crop progress: 64% of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, 4 points ahead of last year's 60% but equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: In its first condition rating for the 2024 crop, USDA NASS rated winter wheat condition at 47% good to excellent, up from 28% at this time a year ago. Kansas' winter wheat was rated 32% good to excellent.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Another burst or two of showers is expected for Northern areas of the country this weekend, which will likely keep fieldwork limited in that part of the country, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Heavy precipitation fell over a lot of the Plains and Midwest over the last week," Baranick said. "That should have increased soil moisture for winter wheat establishment and eased drought conditions. But with the cold that followed and snow across the north, it'll be much more difficult to complete the remaining fieldwork. Hard freezes are also not a good thing for emergent wheat, either slowing its development or guiding it toward dormancy.

"But the showers are less frequent this week across the South. A front continues to push eastward and is letting the cold air in, which will produce frosts and freezes all the way down toward the Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Across the North, a small but potent system will bring areas of light snow accumulation to the Midwest. And the pattern stays active with showers moving into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains late week that may continue eastward for the weekend. Another burst or two of showers are expected for Northern areas this weekend as well, which will keep fieldwork limited."

 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/30)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 46 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2204440 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/26)

A strong upper-level ridge dominated much of the western U.S., providing anomalously warm temperatures, by as much as 20 degrees above average, and dry conditions over the central and western parts of the country. While a front extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast produced rain over parts of Ohio Valley and Great Lakes before moving eastward and bringing rain to parts of the Northeast and Southeast. The most widespread improvements were made to parts of eastern Texas, central Wisconsin and in parts of the Ohio River Valley, where above-normal precipitation was observed this past week. Dry conditions continued across much of the Southern region, with widespread degradations occurring across the Tennessee Valley, central Mississippi Valley and northern parts of the Southeast. In the Southwest, near- to record-warm temperatures coupled with below-normal precipitation for the month, resulted in degradation in the southern parts of the region. In Hawaii, drought continues to intensify across all islands, while no changes occurred on Kauai.

Northeast

Above-normal precipitation fell across much of New England and in southern portions of the region, resulting in improvements to abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought(D1) in West Virginia. Much of New York remained dry this week, justifying the expansion of D0 and D1 in western New York where precipitation is less than 25% of normal for the week.

Southeast

Precipitation fell across much of the region this week but rainfall amounts were well below normal, resulting in another week of 1-category degradations across parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. The drought expansion and intensification was based on short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC’s short-term blend, streamflow and soil moisture data. Based on these short-term indicators, extreme drought (D3) was expanded in southern Alabama and introduced in parts of northern Alabama and Georgia where precipitation amounts for the last 7 days were less than 5% of normal and range between 2-4 inches below normal for the month. Moderate drought (D2) was expanded in parts of Alabama and Georgia, while D2 was introduced in parts of western North Carolina and southwest South Carolina this week. Moderate drought (D1) was expanded in Georgia, eastern Alabama, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina, while abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded in small parts of eastern Alabama and northern South Carolina.

South

Dry conditions continued across much of the Southern region this week while heavy precipitation fell over parts of eastern Texas to southern Oklahoma. Portions of the Texas Panhandle received up to 4 inches of rainfall (up to 600% above normal) this week, resulting in removal of exceptional drought (D4) while extreme drought (D3) and severe drought (D2) conditions were improved in this region. On the dry side, a broad 1-category degradation was made to Arkansas, Tennessee and in northern parts of Mississippi and Louisiana, where little to no precipitation fell. Extreme drought was expanded in southeast Louisiana, while D3 was expanded in northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi and introduced in parts of central Arkansas and southern Tennessee. Precipitation in these areas are around 2-3 inches below normal for the month. The drought expansion and intensification was based on short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC’s short-term blend, streamflow and soil moisture data.

Midwest

A broad 1-category improvement was made across much of the northern Ohio Valley, central Wisconsin and western Minnesota, where 0.5 to 3 inches of rainfall (up to 400% of normal) occurred this past week. Above-normal precipitation helped to alleviate longer-term precipitation deficits and improved soil moisture and streamflow impacts, resulting in improvements to abnormal dryness (D0) and all drought categories. Severe drought (D2) improved in southern Minnesota and northeast Wisconsin, while moderate drought (D1) was improved in southern Minnesota, central Wisconsin, western Kentucky and Ohio. Meanwhile, dry conditions continue to affect southern parts of the region, where precipitation is as low as 5% of normal for the week. D0 to D2 was expanded across parts of Missouri, while D1 was expanded into southern Illinois and eastern Kentucky. Degradations were supported by precipitation deficits, short-term SPI/SPEI timescales, streamflow and soil moisture data.

High Plains

Precipitation fell over the northern and eastern parts of the region, with much of the rain falling outside of the drought areas. For this reason, much of the High Plains remained as status quo this week. Little to no precipitation fell over most of Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and southern Wyoming. This coupled with above-normal temperatures (around 10-15°F above normal), along with deteriorating conditions shown in short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow and soil moisture data, justified slight degradations across these states. Severe drought (D2) was expanded in northeast Kansas, while moderate drought (D1) was expanded in the southeast part of the state. D1 was also expanded in parts of southwest Wyoming, while abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded from southwest Nebraska into northeast Wyoming and D0 was introduced along the central border of Kansas and Wyoming.

West

Much of the West remained as status quo this week. Precipitation fell across much of the region, which was enough to prevent further degradation but not enough to warrant large improvements. Heavier precipitation fell across parts of Montana, with rain totals up to 300-400% above normal, over the past week. This beneficial rainfall, along with precipitation percentiles and short-term SPI/SPEI, soil moisture and streamflow data, resulted in abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought improvements along the northern parts of Montana. As for temperature, much of the region was well above normal with temperatures up to 15°F above normal. Parts of the Southwest are experiencing record warm temperatures for this month-to-date period, while Phoenix, AZ, reached 105°F on October 16th and 104°F on October 19th and 20th, setting the three hottest temperatures on record for this time of the year. These above-normal temperatures coupled with below-normal precipitation resulted in the expansion of D1 and D2 in southern Arizona and across the state of New Mexico. Introduction of D3 was also added to northwest New Mexico based on precipitation deficits and short-term SPI/SPEI and soil moisture data.

Caribbean

Hurricane Tammy brought swells and precipitation to parts of Puerto Rico, slightly improving abnormal dryness (D0) on the eastern part of the island.

Hurricane Tammy brought some beneficial rains to parts of the US Virgin Islands (USVI) this drought week; however, drought continued to persist in the region.

In St. John, the Windswept Beach had the most rain this week with 1.48 inches, resulting in a month-to-date (MTD) rainfall total of 10.89 inches (247.1% of normal) and a year-to-date (YTD) rainfall total of 95.9% of normal. Since SPI values were indicative of drought free conditions at the 1,3,6, and 9 months; however, abnormally dry conditions remained at the 12-month period. If conditions continue to improve next week, a 1-category improvement might be considered for St. John.

In St. Thomas, while the CoCoRaHs stations across St. Thomas had weekly rainfall totals that ranged between half an inch to a little over 1 inch, the Cyril E King Airport had 1.53 inches of rain this week. The month-to-date rainfall total at the airport was 6.58 inches (162.8% of normal) and the year-to-date total at this location was 63.3% of normal. Short- and long-term extreme drought persisted despite the beneficial rain since SPI values were indicative of abnormally dry to exceptional drought at the 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 -months timescales.

Short- and long-term extreme drought also continued across St. Croix. Rainfall totals varied this week across the island, with most locations having little to no rain. While the Henry Rohlsen Airport had no reported rain, most CoCoRaHs stations across the island had less than 1 inch of rain. The airport's month-to-date rainfall total was 5.10 inches or 152.7% of normal. The year-to-date rainfall total was 67.7% of normal. Groundwater levels were declining steadily, and while the SPI value at the 1-month was indicative of drought free conditions, the 3, 6, 9, and 12-month timescales were indicative of moderate to exceptional drought.

Pacific

No changes were made this week to the abnormal dryness (D0) area on the western Yukon Flats.

Dry conditions continue across much of Hawaii this week, resulting in the expansion of drought on Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Maui and the Big Island. No changes were made on Kauai this week after pre-frontal rain bands brought some precipitation to parts of the island, but not enough to improve conditions.

Drought was not a concern for Palau and the Mariana Islands this week. Palau had close to 4 inches of rain for the week. While Rota and Saipan (in the Mariana Islands) had less than 1 inch of rain this week, Guam had 1.60 inches of rain. Despite the dry week for Rota and Saipan, drought free conditions persisted across the Mariana Islands. This week marked the first dry week (less than 1 inch of rain) for Rota and Saipan; however, the month-to-date (MTD) rainfall totals for all three locations were over 11 inches, exceeding the monthly threshold of 4 inches to meet most water needs.

This was a dry week for most locations across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), with rainfall totals less than 1 inch. Despite the dry conditions, drought was not a concern across the FSM this week since this was only the first or second consecutive dry week and the MTD rainfall totals were close to or over the monthly threshold of 8 inches to meet most water needs.

Across the Marshall Islands, most locations had a wet week (weekly rainfall total equal to or greater than 2 inches). Ailinglaplap, Mili and Wotje had the most rain with rainfall totals above 3 inches. This week marked Wotje's first wet week after several consecutive weeks of dry conditions and its MTD rainfall total was less than the monthly threshold of 8 inches since May. Despite having over 3 inches of rain this week, Wotje's drought classification of abnormally dry conditions persisted. Kwajalein had a little over 2 inches of rain this week, surpassing the weekly threshold of 2 inches to meet most water needs. However, abnormally dry conditions persisted since its MTD rainfall total was less than the monthly threshold of 8 inches. All of the other locations continued to be drought free this week.

Across American Samoa, all three locations had over their weekly threshold of 1 inch, with Siufaga Ridge having close to 4 inches of rain. Since rainfall totals for the weekly and monthly thresholds were surpassed, a 1-category drought improvement was done (from abnormally dry conditions to drought free conditions).

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (October 24-28, 2023), remnant energy and moisture from Tropical Storm Norma could stream northward to spread heavy rainfall to parts of the southern and central U.S. early to mid-next week, while chances of snow increase in the northern Rockies and into parts of the northern Plains late next week. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk of excessive rainfall for parts of northern Texas and west-central Oklahoma due to potential flash flooding. Well above normal temperatures will spread from the Midwest into the East (15-20 degrees above normal), while daytime maximum temperatures for the northern portions of the Rockies and Plains could be 10-20 degrees below normal.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid October 28-November 2, 2023) favors near to above-normal precipitation throughout much of contiguous U.S., and Alaska with below-normal precipitation most likely from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains, across much of Hawaii and in parts of southeast Alaska. Increased probabilities for below-normal temperatures are forecast for much of the contiguous U.S. while above-normal temperatures are likely from Louisiana to New England, as well as much of Alaska and Hawaii.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/24)

 

USDA Crop Progress Report - Corn 59% Harvested, Soybeans 76% Harvested as of Oct. 22

OMAHA (DTN) -- Mostly favorable weather conditions across much of the country last week allowed the corn and soybean harvests to maintain their lead over the five-year averages, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest picked up speed last week, moving ahead 14 percentage points to reach 59% complete as of Sunday. That matches last year's pace but is 5 percentage points ahead of 54% for the five-year average. "Illinois and Iowa are 70% and 62% harvested, respectively," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "States lagging are mostly in the Eastern Corn Belt, with Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin ranging from 20% to 26% complete."

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest slowed somewhat last week, moving ahead 14 percentage points to reach 76% complete as of Sunday. That is 2 points behind last year's 78% but 9 points ahead of the five-year average of 67%. "Illinois, Iowa, and the Dakotas are from 80% to 90% harvested," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting advanced 9 percentage points last week to reach 77% complete as of Sunday. That is 1 percentage point behind 78% for both last year and the five-year average. "Kansas' winter wheat is 85% planted, while Nebraska and Washington lead the pack at 99% and 95% done," Mantini said.

-- Crop progress: 53% of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, 6 points ahead of last year's 47% but equal to the five-year average.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

The first significant snowfall of the season in the Northern Plains, a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes, and widespread precipitation chances throughout the center of the country could cause harvest delays for quite a few producers this week, according to DTN Meteorologist Teresa Wells.

"This week will feature an active weather pattern across the central U.S. with a couple of low-pressure systems expected to move out of the West and into the Plains. Scattered rain showers are expected to accompany the low-pressure systems, and a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall could develop across the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. The first significant snowfall of the season is also expected to hit North Dakota by the middle of this week with more rounds of snow through the end of the week. Snowfall totals could approach 10 inches in spots across western North Dakota by Friday. Farther south, portions of western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas could see up to 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts up to 4 to 5 inches.

"In addition to the widespread precipitation chances this week throughout the center of the country, an extreme temperature swing is likely behind a strong cold front later this week. Temperatures will start out above normal across much of the Plains, Delta and Upper Midwest through the middle of this week. Some areas in the southern Corn Belt will see temperatures rise to 15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit (F) above normal by midweek. A blast of cold air will follow these warmer temperatures, with below-normal temperatures working into the Dakotas as early as Thursday. These cooler temperatures will spread south through the upcoming weekend, and western parts of the Dakotas could see temperatures hit 15-20 degrees F below normal by Saturday.

"Delays in harvest are likely for quite a few producers this week and parts of the north-central U.S. could see even longer delays if heavy snowfall lingers due to temperatures not warming up much past 32 degrees F." 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/23)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 44 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2270567 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/19)

 

This Week's Drought Summary (10/19)

An intense low-pressure system moved across the contiguous U.S., bringing heavy precipitation (greater than 2 inches) across much of the central Plains and Midwest this week. While in the southeast, upper-level energy moving across the Southeast brought rain over parts of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and northern Florida, before moving into the southern Mid-Atlantic. The most widespread improvements were made to northern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, northern Indiana and southern Texas where more well above normal precipitation was observed this past week. Dry conditions continued across much of the Southern region, with widespread degradations occurring across the Tennessee Valley, central Mississippi Valley and northern parts of the southern Plains. Following a wet September, minor improvements were warranted for parts of Washington. In Hawaii, drought continues to intensify across parts of Kauai and the Big Island.

Northeast

Above-normal precipitation fell across southern portions of the region resulting in slight improvements to D0 (abnormal dryness) and D1 (moderate drought) in Maryland and West Virginia. Much of New York and New England remained dry this week, resulting in the expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought in western New York. No changes were made to New England.

Southeast

More than an inch of precipitation fell across much of the region this week, with heavy precipitation from central Alabama to central South Carolina, as well as northern Florida. Moderate drought was removed from the Big Bend region in Florida, while abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from parts of central and southern Georgia and eastern North Carolina. Conversely, dryness continues in parts of northern Virginia and northern Alabama, resulting in the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) to severe drought (D2) across these areas. Moderate drought (D1) was expanded in eastern and western parts of Virginia and western North Carolina. Precipitation was also sparse along parts of the Carolina coast, resulting in the expansion of D0. The drought expansion and intensification was based on short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC’s short-term blend, streamflow and soil moisture data.

South

Dry conditions continue across much of the Southern region. Exceptional drought (D4) and extreme drought (D3) was expanded in central and northern Mississippi, while D3 was expanded into northern Louisiana. Moderate drought (D1) to severe drought (D2) was expanded in southern Arkansas. Board 1-category degradation occurred over the states of Oklahoma and Tennessee, in addition to parts of western, central and northern Texas, where dryness continues to degrade conditions. Precipitation in these areas are around 1-2 inches below normal for the month. The drought expansion and intensification was based on short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC’s short-term blend, streamflow and soil moisture data. While heavy precipitation brought improvements to parts of southern and eastern Texas and in southern Mississippi, with some areas reporting over 2 inches of rainfall this week, resulting in exceptional drought being removed from southern Mississippi and extreme drought was removed from southern Texas.

Midwest

A broad 1-category improvement was made to southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana and in parts of Iowa and Ohio where more than an inch of precipitation occurred this past week, with some areas receiving more than 5 inches of precipitation. This excess precipitation, in these areas, alleviated longer-term precipitation deficits and improved soil moisture and streamflow impacts, resulting in improvements to abnormal dryness (D0) and all drought categories. Exceptional drought (D4) was from the region, located in eastern Iowa, and extreme drought (D3) from parts of central and southwest Minnesota. Meanwhile, dry conditions continue to affect the northern and southern parts of the region. Parts of northeastern Wisconsin continues to be dry, resulting in the expansion of moderate drought (D1) and severe drought (D2), while D0 and D1 was expanded into parts of northwest and southeast Missouri, and D0 and D1 was expanded into parts western, central and eastern Kentucky. Degradations were supported by precipitation deficits, short-term SPI/SPEI timescales, streamflow and soil moisture data.

High Plains

Heavy precipitation brought widespread improvements to the southeastern parts of the region, especially along the South Dakota and Nebraska border. Much of northern Nebraska received at least 2 inches of precipitation, with some areas reporting more than 7 inches this week. Board 1-category improvements were made across northern Nebraska, while 2-category improvements were made where historic rainfall was reported. The heavy precipitation also improved abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) conditions in eastern South Dakota, as shown in short-term SPI/SPEI timescales and soil moisture data. A small area in southwest Nebraska, Chase County, was degraded to D1 due to acute dryness over the past two months and justified by short-term SPI/SPEI data and soil moisture being consistently under the 20th percentile. In Kansas, northern parts of the state received precipitation this past week but not enough to lead to large improvements. Precipitation did improve a small area of extreme drought (D3) in the central part of the state, in the counties of McPherson and Saline. Status quo was maintained across much of the state with some degradation occurring along the eastern part of the state based on SPI/SPEI and soil moisture data.

West

Precipitation fell across much of the West with heavy precipitation along the coast from Washington to northern California, where more than 1 inch of precipitation occurred this past week. Above-normal precipitation led to improvements to severe drought (D2) in southwest Washington, along with abnormal dryness (D0) to extreme drought (D1-D3) improvements to western Oregon and D0 to moderate drought (D1) improvements in northern California. Beneficial precipitation led to improvements in moderate drought to extreme drought (D0-D3) in portions of northwest Montana, as shown in SPI/SPEI, streamflow and soil moisture data. Status quo was maintained across the rest of the region this week.

Caribbean

Precipitation fell over parts of Puerto Rico this week but not enough to make improvements to moderate drought (D1) or abnormal dryness (D0) on the island.

With little to no rain, drought conditions persisted across the US Virgin Islands.

Rainfall totals varied this week across St. Croix. While the Henry Rohlsen Airport had no rain, most CoCoRaHs stations across the island had less than 1 inch of rain, with the exception of two locations that had a little over 1 inch. The month-to-date rainfall total at the airport was 214.3% of normal (5.10 inches) and year-to-date total was 70.2% of normal. Last week's rainfall helped increase the groundwater levels; however, they were still ~33 ft below land surface. SPI values at the 3, 6, 9, and 12 were indicative of moderate to exceptional drought, while the 1-month was indicative of drought free conditions. For this week, short- and long-term extreme drought persisted across St. Croix.

In St. Thomas, the Cyril E King Airport had close to 1 inch of rain this week, resulting in a month-to-date total of 186.3% of normal rain (5.05 inches). The year-to-date total at the airport is 61.5% of normal. CoCoRaHs stations had a weekly total of less than 1 inch. SPI values at the 3, 6, 9, and 12 months are indicative of abnormally dry conditions to extreme drought, while drought free conditions were indicative at the 1-month. For this week, short- and long-term extreme drought continued.

Long-term abnormally dry conditions continued across St. John since it had little to no rain this week. The Windswept Beach location had no rain, resulting in a month-to-date total of 9.41 inches. This is 306.9% of normal rain and 95.3% of normal for the year-to-date. SPI values at the 1, 3, 6, and 9 months were indicative of drought free conditions, while at the 12-month were indicative of abnormally dry conditions.

Pacific

No changes were made this week to the abnormal dryness (D0) area on the western Yukon Flats.

Dry conditions continue across the islands of Hawaii this week. The lower leeward slopes of Kauai remain dry, resulting in expansion of severe drought on the island. On the Big Island, severe (D3) drought was introduced in the north central portion of the island, while existing D3 drought was expanded near South Point towards the northeast.

Airai had 0.67 inch of rain this week. Despite having a dry week, drought free conditions persisted since the previous week this same location had over 6 inches of rain.

Drought was not a concern across the Mariana Islands since all three locations had over 3 inches of rain for the week and over 7 inches for the month.

Most of the Federated States of Micronesia continued to be free of drought since most locations received close to or over their weekly threshold of 2 inches.

Lukunor, Pingelap, and Woleai had less than an inch of rain this week; however, drought free conditions continued since the previous week these locations had very wet conditions.

It was a dry week for most locations across the Marshall Islands. Several locations had less than 1 inch of rain for the week. Despite the dry conditions this week, Ailinglaplap, Jaluit, and Mili continued to be drought free since they had very wet conditions last week. Meanwhile, Kwajalein and Wotje continued to be abnormally dry since they had little to no rain this week. Majuro was the only location to have over 2 inches of rain at 3.70 inches.

This was a wet week for Tutuila, with all three locations receiving over 1 inch of rain. Suifaga Ridge had the most rain with over 5 inches of rain. Since all three locations surpassed their weekly threshold and the month-to-date totals already surpassed the monthly threshold of 4 inches, Tutuila's drought classification was changed from moderate drought to abnormally dry conditions.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (October 19-24, 2023), a front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern High Plains will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast by Friday. The system will produce rain over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday evening, moving into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday and continuing eastward into Friday. On October 21, guidance shows potential for significant rainfall over parts of the Northeast, while the West is forecasted to receive rain from the weekend into next week. Some of the precipitation over the West should fall as snow in the higher northern Rockies, with snow levels gradually declining with time.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid October 23-27, 2023) favors near to above-normal precipitation throughout much of contiguous U.S., Alaska and Hawaii with below-normal precipitation most likely across the East Coast and in parts of southeast Alaska and on the Big Island in Hawaii. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast from the Plains to the East Coast, as well as much of Alaska and Hawaii, while below-normal temperatures are likely across much of the West.

USDA Crop Progress Report - Corn 45% Harvested, Soybeans 62% Harvested as of Oct. 15

OMAHA (DTN) -- The nation's soybean harvest jumped to a 10-point lead over the five-year average, and the corn harvest also remained slightly ahead of the average pace by the end of last week as farmers in some areas rushed to get in as much fieldwork as they could ahead of heavy rains, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

CORN

-- Crop progress: NASS estimated that 95% of corn was mature as of Sunday, Oct. 15, 2 percentage points ahead of last year's 93% and 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 92%.

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest moved ahead another 11 percentage points last week to reach 45% complete as of Sunday. That is 2 percentage points ahead of 43% last year and 3 percentage points ahead of 42% for the five-year average. "Iowa's corn crop is 72% harvested and 20 points above average, while Illinois is 52% done," said DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio are lagging, ranging from 14% to 17% harvested."

-- Crop condition: NASS said 53% of corn was rated good to excellent, unchanged for the third week in a row. The current rating is equal to last year's rating at this time and is the lowest good-to-excellent rating since 2012.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop progress: 97% of the crop was dropping leaves, 2 percentage points ahead of last year's 95% and 4 points ahead of the five-year average of 93%.

-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest jumped 19 percentage points last week to reach 62% complete as of Sunday. That is 2 points ahead of last year's 60% but 10 points ahead of the five-year average of 52%. "Iowa's soybean crop is 74% harvested, Illinois is 61%, with Nebraska at 70% and Minnesota 76% harvested," Mantini said.

-- Crop condition: USDA said 52% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, back up 1 point from 51% the previous week and below 57% a year ago. The current rating is the lowest good-to-excellent rating since 2012.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting advanced 11 percentage points last week to reach 68% complete as of Sunday. That is 1 point ahead of last year's 67% but equal to the five-year average. "Kansas' winter wheat is 70% planted, 2 points above the five-year average pace," Mantini noted.

-- Crop progress: 39% of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, 3 points ahead of last year's 36% but 4 points behind the five-year average of 43%.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Harvest is likely to be on hold for areas of the Corn Belt that received rain last week and this past weekend and could remain stalled for a while with more rain in the forecast for this week and next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Heavy rain fell over a large portion of the Corn Belt last week and weekend, which will undoubtedly delay harvest and other activities for a while," Baranick said. "Some areas will have to deal with more rain this week as a system moves from the Northern Plains to the Southeast Tuesday through Friday. This system will be much less impressive, with most areas seeing little or only light rain. But there will be pockets of heavier rain in there.

"The southwestern Plains were left out from the storm, dealing with some strong winds at times instead. Soil moisture has been falling there lately. The system this week will pass by to the north and east, leaving it dry for another week.

"The weather pattern looks a lot more active for next week, though, and heavy rain could be widespread, especially in the Plains, which may help to moisten soils for winter wheat establishment but cause more harvest delays."

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/16)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 43 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2294409 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/14)

 A strong cold front resulted in moderate to heavy precipitation across the Great Plains, Ozarks, and western Gulf Coast during the first week of October. The most widespread improvements were made to southern Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, southeastern Oklahoma, and eastern to central Texas where more than 2 inches of precipitation was observed this past week. Following anomalous heat across the central U.S. to start October, the cold front ushered in much cooler temperatures from October 5 to 7. The first frost or freeze of the fall affected the Northern to Central Great Plains on October 7. As the cold front progressed eastward, drought-easing rainfall overspread parts of Illinois, northern Indiana, southern Michigan, and western New York. Father to the south, short-term drought continued to expand north and east across the Southeast. Following a wet September, minor improvements were warranted for parts of Washington. Heavy rainfall, associated with Tropical Storm Philippe, resulted in improving drought for eastern Puerto Rico. Drought continues to intensify across parts of Maui and the Big Island.

Northeast

Increasing short-term precipitation deficits led to a slight increase in D0 (abnormal dryness) and D1 (moderate drought) across western West Virginia. Conversely, heavy precipitation (1 to 2.5 inches) led to a 1-category improvement across western New York. No changes were made to the Mid-Atlantic, while heavy rainfall this past week maintained excessive wetness across New England.

Southeast

Another week of 1-category degradations were necessary for parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. The drought expansion and intensification was based on 30 to 60-day SPI/SPEI, NDMC’s short-term blend, and soil moisture. Based on these short-term indicators, severe drought (D2) coverage was increased across parts of Alabama and added to the northwest corner of Georgia. Given the lack of precipitation during the past 4 to 6 weeks, abnormal dryness (D0) expanded north into southwestern and south-central Virginia. Severe drought (D2) was expanded southwest across western Virginia based on 6-month SPI and river levels below the 10th percentile. D2 was expanded slightly east across the Florida Panhandle, while moderate short-term drought (D1) was added to north-central Florida with support from the 30-day SPI, soil moisture, and 28-day average streamflow.

South

A broad 1-category improvement was made to southern Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, southeastern Oklahoma, and eastern to central Texas where more than 1.5 inches of precipitation occurred this past week. SPIs at multiple time scales, soil moisture, and 28-day average streamflows were also factors in determining where to depict the improvements. For areas that received more than 3 inches of precipitation and there was support from the NDMC’s drought blends, a 2-category improvement was justified across southwestern Arkansas, northeastern Texas, and the Texas Gulf Coast. Drought coverage and intensity across Texas peaked in early September when 85.68 percent of the state was covered with drought (D1 or higher) and two-thirds of the state was designated with severe (D2) to exceptional (D4) drought. Based on 90-day SPEI, an expansion of D2-D4 was made to parts of Mississippi. Impacts in Mississippi include poor pasture conditions, soybean and peanut losses, and cattle sell offs. The 90-day SPEI also supported an expansion of D4 across northeastern Louisiana. Increasing short-term dryness led to an expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) across Tennessee.

Midwest

Abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate short-term drought (D1) were increased to the east of Lake Michigan, while recent precipitation (more than 2 inches) resulted in a 1-category improvement across southern lower Michigan. This heavy precipitation extended south into northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois where a 1-category improvement was also made. A slight reduction in D0 and D1 occurred in parts of central Illinois that received 0.5 to 2 inches of precipitation. D1 was slightly expanded across southwestern Indiana due to increasing short-term dryness. D1 was expanded across central and eastern Kentucky along with southwestern Ohio based on 30 to 90-day SPI and soil moisture. Widespread precipitation amounts of more than 0.5 inch along with much cooler temperatures resulted in improvements throughout Minnesota. Parts of northeast Minnesota were removed from abnormal dryness since Duluth had its second wettest September on record. These improvements extended east to include northwestern Wisconsin. Closer to the Green Bay area, a 1-category degradation was made due to increasing short-term precipitation deficits and declining soil moisture. NDMC’s long-term drought blend and 6-month SPI supported a 1-category degradation to parts of northwestern and central Missouri.

High Plains

A 1-category improvement was made to northwestern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota where more than 1 inch of precipitation occurred this past week. Small improvements were also warranted in central Nebraska with the wet start to October. Although parts of eastern Nebraska also received heavier precipitation, NDMC’s long-term blend supports D2+ levels of drought. Based on drier-than-normal conditions during the past 60 days and soil moisture, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded across the southwestern corner of Nebraska. 60-day SPI, soil moisture, and NDMC’s short-term blend supported an increase in D0 and the addition of D1 across southern Wyoming. The suppressed 2023 Monsoon and the 6-month SPEI supported an expansion of D2 in southwestern Colorado, while increasing short-term dryness led to increasing D0 coverage across northwestern Colorado.

West

A 1-category improvement was made to northeastern Montana where more than 1 inch of precipitation occurred this past week. Precipitation during the past two weeks along with long-term SPIs supported the removal of extreme drought (D3) in north-central Montana. Based on SPI at multiple time scales, severe drought (D2) was added to eastern Arizona while there was an expansion of moderate drought (D1) in western Arizona. Improving 28-day streamflows along with support from NDMC’s short to long-term blends led to a 1-category improvement for the Puget Sound of Washington along with southeastern parts of the state. Abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded across northeastern Utah due to increasing short-term dryness during the past one to three months and this was also consistent with changes made to adjacent Colorado and Wyoming.

Caribbean

Tropical Storm Philippe tracked to the northeast of Puerto Rico, and heavy rainfall (more than 3 inches) resulted in a 1-category improvement across eastern parts of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Philippe brushed the northeast portion of the USVI at the start of the drought week (Wed, Oct 4 - Tue, Oct 10), bringing mostly beneficial rains to the drought-stricken islands, though for some spots rainfall amounts were locally excessive. In the aftermath of Philippe, precipitation totals ranged from about 2-4 inches at St. Croix, 1.5-5.0 inches at St. Thomas, with the heaviest rains (8-10 inches) observed over St. John. Groundwater well sites located on the three islands experienced significant rises in water levels, ranging from about 1.0-4.5 feet higher than pre-Philippe levels. Accordingly, one-category improvements in drought class were made for St. Croix and St. Thomas, with an unusual two-category improvement for St. John.

On St. Thomas, a sampling of precipitation amounts included CoCoRaHS observing sites VI-ST-5 (1.44 inches) and VI-ST-13 (2.47 inches) in Charlotte Amalie, and VI-ST-1 (Anna’s Retreat, 4.66 inches). The rainfall observation reported by the Cyril E. King Airport for the drought week appears to be way underdone, and is being looked into. The Grade School 3 well water level rose to within 7.32 feet of the surface, up from 11.48 feet on Oct 3. Based on these factors, and the latest SPI numbers, the drought classification at St. Thomas was improved by one-category, from D4 (SL) to D3 (SL). On St. John, the island which received the heaviest precipitation this drought week from Tropical Storm Philippe, Cruz Bay (VI-SJ-5) reported 8.10 inches of rain, Windswept Beach (VI-SJ-3, 8.81 inches), and Trunk Bay (VI-SJ-9) observed 9.51 inches of rain. The heavy rain helped to fill up cisterns and was very good news for vegetation. The Susannaberg DPW-3 well water rose to within 16.33 feet of the surface, up from 20.65 feet on Oct 3. This week’s depiction for St. John was improved by two categories, from D2 (SL) to D0 (L), since shorter-term precipitation deficits were largely erased by Philippe. On St. Croix, a sampling of rainfall totals included VI-SC-29 (1.95 inches), VI-SC-34 (2.26 inches), VI-SC-18 (2.67 inches), and VI-SC-20 (3.14 inches), all in the vicinity of Frederiksted. Rainfall observations in the vicinity of Christiansted included VI-SC-31 (1.46 inches), East Hill (2.32 inches), VI-SC-10 (3.03 inches), VI-SC-30 (3.66 inches), and VI-SC-25 (3.86 inches). The rainfall observation reported by the Henry E. Rohlsen Airport for the drought week appears to be way underdone, similar to the King airport on St. Thomas. The Adventure 28 well water level rose to within 33.79 feet of the surface, up from 34.92 feet on Oct 3. This rise in well water level is not as dramatic as on the other islands, but is significant nonetheless. The drought class for St. Croix was therefore improved this week from D4 (SL) to D3 (SL).

Pacific

No changes were made this week to the abnormal dryness (D0) area on the western Yukon Flats.

Hawaii received little to no precipitation this past week due to light winds. A 1-category degradation was made to parts of Maul County (Lanai and Kahoolawe) along with the west side of the Big Island.

During this past drought week (Wed, Oct 4 - Tue, Oct 10), a series of surface troughs and weak circulation centers helped to generate precipitation across the USAPI. During the second half of the drought week, an area of disturbed weather developed into Typhoon 15W (Bolaven) as it approached the heart of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). At the end of the period, Bolaven underwent very rapid intensification, becoming a Supertyphoon with maximum sustained winds of about 150 kts with higher gusts, as noted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, HI. Bolaven tracked very close to Tinian Island, and this morning’s satellite imagery reveals a spectacular eye. For the week as a whole across the USAPI, the satellite-based QPE (SPoRT IMERG) estimated a broad swath of 2-4” + of rain that fell across much of the western tropical North Pacific, with extensive coverage of embedded 4-8” amounts of precipitation. South of the equator, surface troughs also influenced American Samoa, although satellite-based QPE amounts were generally under one inch.

The Republic of Palau continued its drought-free status this week, with the International Airport (IAP, Airai) reporting 6.36 inches of rain, and the Koror COOP, 4.44 inches. The CNMI also secured its drought-free status this week, thanks in large part to the passage of Bolaven. Selected rainfall measurements included Guam (8.59 inches), Rota (4.59 inches, 1 day missing), Saipan (ASOS, 3.39 inches), and Saipan (IAP, manual gauge, 1.43 inches). At Guam, the minimum thresholds for meeting most water needs (1-inch per week/4 inches per month) were exceeded for 11 of the past 12 weeks, and for 12 of the past 12 months. Across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), drought-free conditions persisted. Precipitation amounts for this past drought week included Lukunor (7.63 inches, 1 day missing), Pingelap (5.65 inches), Chuuk (5.09 inches, 1 day missing), Kapingamarangi (4.66 inches), Ulithi (4.32 inches), Woleai (4.24 inches, 1 day missing), Pohnpei (3.80 inches, most water needs met for past 12 consecutive weeks), Yap (3.20 inches), Fananu (2.93 inches, 2 days missing), Kosrae (2.21 inches), and Nukuoro (1.25 inches).

Across the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), a one-category improvement was rendered to the drought depiction at Ailinglaplap and Majuro, based on weekly rainfall amounts and/or reservoir status, with both stations now drought and dryness-free. Ailinglaplap received 5.46 inches of rain this week, while Majuro reported 3.46 inches. The latest available reservoir data from Majuro indicates the individual and private storage tanks in the past two weeks have been at 80-100% full. Mili reported 5.59 inches of rain for the week, Jaluit 3.36 inches, Kwajalein 2.74 inches (1 day missing), and Wotje 1.75 inches. No analysis was performed at Utirik this week, due to lack of data. South of the equator, American Samoa reported rainfall amounts of 2.94 inches at Siufaga Ridge, 1.52 inches at Toa Ridge, and only a third of an inch at Pago Pago. The drought designation at Tutuila was kept at D1 (S) this week.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (October 12-16, 2023), an intense low pressure system is forecast to track from the Central Rockies and Great Plains eastward to the Midwest and Central Appalachians. A swath of heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches) is likely to accompany this surface low. On October 12th, a vigorous area of mid-level low pressure is expected to bring heavy snow (6 to 12 inches) to the higher elevations of Wyoming. A low pressure system is forecast to move offshore of the Southeast by October 13th after it brings widespread precipitation to parts of the Southeast. Mostly dry weather is forecast to persist across the Tennessee Valley, while much drier weather prevails across the Southern Great Plains. Periods of light to moderate precipitation are expected for the coastal Pacific Northwest.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid October 17-21, 2023) favors near to below-normal precipitation throughout much of the contiguous U.S. with above-normal precipitation most likely across southeastern Alaska. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across the West and Northern to Central Great Plains, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.