October Ag Prices Received Index Down 6.3 Percent, Paid Index Up 0.1 Percent

October Prices Received Index Down 6.3 Percent   

The October Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 114.1, decreased 6.3 percent from September and 11 percent from October 2022. At 104.0, the Crop Production Index was down 7.6 percent from last month and 14 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 133.5, increased 0.3 percent from September, but decreased 4.1 percent from October last year. Producers received lower prices for corn, hogs, soybeans, and apples but higher prices during October for milk, calves, cattle, and dry beans. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In October, there was decreased marketing of cattle, milk, broilers, and wheat and increased monthly movement for soybeans, corn, cotton, and calves.    

October Prices Paid Index Up 0.1 Percent   

The October Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 138.8, is up 0.1 percent from September 2023 and 0.1 percent from October 2022. Higher prices in October for feeder cattle, wage rates, nitrogen, and potash & phosphate more than offset lower prices for complete feeds, concentrates, feed grains, and gasoline. 

This Week's Drought Summary (11/30)

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw some minor expansion of drought across areas of the West (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming) and Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Missouri), while conditions improved on the map in drought-affected areas of the South (Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas), Southeast (Alabama, Carolinas, Florida, Virginia), Northeast (Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania), High Plains (Kansas), and the West (Montana, New Mexico). For the week, cooler-than-normal temperatures prevailed across most of the conterminous U.S. with the largest departures observed across areas of the Intermountain West, central and southern Plains, and Texas where temperatures were 6 to 10 degrees below normal. In terms of precipitation, light to heavy snowfall accumulations (2 to 36 inches) were observed across areas of the central and southern Plains, Upper Midwest, and the Northeast with the heaviest accumulations falling in the Northeast. In areas of the South, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, light to heavy precipitation accumulations (1 to 4 inches) were observed leading to targeted improvements in drought-affected areas on the map. Out West, moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations were observed in the mountain ranges of central Utah and western Colorado as well as in northern portions of Arizona and New Mexico. The heaviest accumulations (up to 36 inches) were observed in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado. Overall, early-season snowpack conditions across the West have been below normal apart from some drainage basins (6-digit HUCs) in the Great Basin, Lower Colorado, and Rio Grande basins. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL network (11/28), region-wide (2-digit HUCs) percent of median snow water equivalent (SWE) levels were as follows: Pacific Northwest 53%, Missouri 62%, California 39%, Great Basin 62%, Upper Colorado 59%, Lower Colorado 100%, Rio Grande 53%, and Arkansas-White-Red 55%. In the Hawaiian Islands, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with an ongoing Kona Low system are bringing much-needed moisture to drought-affected areas of the island chain this week.

Northeast

For the week, some minor improvements were made on the map in drought-affected areas of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland in response to beneficial rainfall during the past 14-day period (accumulations ranging from 2 to 4 inches). In other parts of the region, some locally heavy snowfall accumulations were observed in areas downwind of the Great Lakes in Upstate New York as well as in Vermont with 3-day (through the morning of 11/29) accumulations ranging from 6 to 36 inches, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). Furthermore, NWS NOHRSC regional snow analysis reports that the Northeast Region is 51.3% covered by snow with an average snow depth of 2.3 inches and a maximum depth of 23.5 inches. For the week, average temperatures were below normal across the region with departures ranging from 1 to 5 degrees F below normal.

Southeast

During the past week, light to moderate rainfall accumulations (ranging from 1 to 4 inches) were observed across areas of the region, with the highest accumulations observed in isolated areas of Virginia, North Carolina, and northern Florida. On the map, targeted improvements were made in all states within the region. Despite the recent improvements, rainfall deficits within the past 30-day period range from 1 to 4 inches across much of the region with the greatest shortfalls observed in the northern portion of Alabama and Georgia as well as in western North Carolina. In terms of drought-related impacts, the National Drought Mitigation Center’s (NDMC) Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) recorded hundreds of impact reports from across Alabama and Georgia during the past 30-day period. Average temperatures across most of the region were below normal (1 to 6 degrees F), with the greatest departures observed in Alabama and northern Florida.

South

In the South, precipitation during the past 14-day period led to improvements on the map in isolated areas of Mississippi, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Texas. However, significant precipitation deficits remain across areas of the region including along the Gulf Coast regions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi where 6-month shortfalls range from 8 to 20+ inches. According to the latest U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) Weekly Weather and Crop Progress Bulletin (11/26), the percentage of topsoil in Louisiana rated short to very short was 72%, while neighboring Mississippi was rated 66% short to very short. In Texas, statewide reservoir conditions were at 68% full (11/29), according to Water Data for Texas. Moreover, the best reservoir conditions (% full) were observed in the East Texas (86.6%), North Central (84.1%), and Upper Coast (84.9%) climate regions while the poorest conditions were reported in the South (21%), Edwards Plateau (31.1%), and High Plains (36.9%) regions. Looking at streamflow conditions in Louisiana and Mississippi, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is reporting numerous streams and rivers with flows below the 10th percentile (11/29). In terms of drought-related impacts during the past 30 days, there has been a significant decline in the number of impact reports coming into the NDMC CMOR system.

Midwest

For the week, light to moderate precipitation accumulations, including snowfall, were observed across areas of the region with the highest amounts observed in eastern portions of Kentucky and Ohio. On the map, continued dry conditions led to additional expansion of areas of drought in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana where various drought indicators, including soil moisture (North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS]) and streamflows (USGS), are showing well below normal levels with values dipping below the 10th percentile. According to the latest USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Progress Bulletin (11/26), the percentage of topsoil rated short to very short is as follows: Iowa 67%, Missouri 55%, Illinois 47%, and Indiana 42%. In terms of precipitation, 30-day departures from normal range from 1 to 4 inches across the region with the greatest departures observed in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri. Looking at snowpack conditions, the NWS NOHRSC reports 61% of the Northern Great Lakes Region is covered by snow with an average depth of 1.1 inches and a maximum of 10.5 inches. Average temperatures for the week were below normal (1 to 8 degrees F) across the region with the greatest anomalies observed across the western half of the region.

High Plains

On this week’s map, some minor improvements were made in areas of Kansas in response to improving conditions during the past 30-60 days, including beneficial snowfall observed over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Elsewhere, degradations were made in areas of eastern Colorado where drier-than-normal conditions have prevailed during the past 30-60-day period. In the Dakotas, conditions on the map remained status quo. In terms of snowpack conditions, the NWS NOHRSC reports the Upper Midwest Region (which includes the Dakotas and eastern portions of Montana) is currently 3.1% covered by snow as compared to 66.3% last month. Average temperatures for the week were below normal (2 to 8 degrees F) with the greatest departures observed in the plains of Colorado and Wyoming as well as in Kansas.

West

On the map, improvements were made across areas of the Southwest and Pacific Northwest including New Mexico, Oregon, and Montana. In northern New Mexico, areas of Extreme Drought (D3) were reduced in response to recent precipitation (past 14-day period) including high-elevation snowfall in the Nacimiento and Sangre de Cristo ranges. In Montana, a mix of improvements and degradations were made on this week’s map, including the removal of an area of Moderate Drought (D1) in north-central Montana where conditions have improved across various metrics during the past 60-day period. In northeastern Oregon, areas of Moderate Drought (D1) were trimmed back around the Blue Mountains where Water-Year-to-Date precipitation (10/1) has been above normal. In south-central Colorado, areas of Severe (D2) and Extreme (D3) drought expanded slightly in areas where month-to-date precipitation has been well below normal. Overall, the West has gotten off to a slow start in terms of snowpack conditions across the region except for some basins in the southern tier of the region. In California, the California Cooperative Snow Surveys reports statewide snowpack conditions at 30% of normal for the date (11/29). For the week, average temperatures were below normal across most of the region with areas of the Intermountain West experiencing departures ranging from 4 to 10 degrees F below normal.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, some minor re-positioning of the current D0 and D1 areas occurred on this week’s map to reflect the latest conditions including analysis of rainfall, soil moisture, and streamflow data.

A dry, stable air mass, associated with a high-pressure ridge, continued across the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (November 22-28). The remnants of an old cold front triggered scattered showers, but the ridge inhibited widespread development of these showers and kept the rain localized. Based on data available at the time of this report, weekly rainfall totals ranged from less than an inch to over an inch, with a few stations on St. Croix receiving over 2 inches.

According on USGS well observations, groundwater levels continued rising on St. John, continued falling on St. Thomas, and rose slightly this week on St. Croix. The depth to water level was 5.10 feet on St. John and 6.57 feet on St. Thomas, both of which are in the top third of the recent historical record, but 33.14 feet on St. Croix, which is in the lowest third of the historical record. Satellite observations (VHI) still showed some stressed vegetation on the three USVI islands.

With year-to-date precipitation totals still well below normal, long-term moderate drought (D1-L) continued on St. Croix. A very dry November coupled with long-term precipitation deficits resulted in St. Thomas having short- and long-term severe drought (D2-SL), while St. John continued with a D-Nothing status (no drought or abnormal dryness).

Pacific

In Alaska, drought-free conditions remain across the state. In terms of snowfall, Anchorage broke the monthly snowfall record for November on 11/17 with 39.1 inches—surpassing the previous November record set back in 1994 with 38.8 inches. Elsewhere in the state, Thompson Pass (in the Chugach Mountains near Valdez, Alaska) received 72 inches of snow on 11/8 and was only 4 inches short of the all-time U.S. record for snowfall for a 24-hour period.

In the Hawaiian Islands, an ongoing Kona Low rainfall event is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and potential for flash flooding through the end of the week.

A fairly dry trade-wind pattern became established over the Micronesia region during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (November 22-28) with a few rainy areas associated with typical tropical features such as troughs, a shear line, a surface circulation, and an upper-level low. A dry and stable air mass dominated American Samoa for much of the month; showers developed this week from a trough that moved through the region. Weekly rainfall totals were above the weekly minimum (1 or 2 inches depending on location) needed to meet most water needs in the Marianas but below at most other stations. However, November month-to-date totals were wet (above the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs) at most locations due to rainy conditions that occurred earlier in the month, so most locations in the U.S.-Affiliated Islands (USAPI) continued with no drought or abnormal dryness.

This week marked the fourth consecutive dry week at Lukunor and fifth consecutive dry week at Ulithi. Two of the last 3 weeks were dry at Pago Pago/Tutuila, and 3 of the last 4 weeks were dry at Pingelap. All of these locations had November month-to-date rainfall totals that were below the corresponding monthly minimum. Unusually warm temperatures characterized the weather at Pago Pago. Due to the weekly and/or monthly precipitation deficits, Tutuila in American Samoa and Lukunor, Pingelap, and Ulithi in the Federate States of Micronesia were experiencing abnormal dryness (D0-S).

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for moderate-to-heavy precipitation accumulations (including heavy snowfall) ranging from 3 to 10+ inches (liquid) across the Olympic Mountains, Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Klamath Mountains, and Coast Ranges of northwestern California. Further inland, lesser accumulations (1 to 3 inches liquid) are expected in areas of the Northern Rockies, northern Great Basin, and ranges of the Intermountain West. In the South and Southeast, moderate to heavy rainfall accumulations (2 to 5 inches) are forecasted while light accumulations (generally <1 inch) are expected in eastern portions of the southern Plains, Lower Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlooks call for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the conterminous U.S. in an area extending from the Midwest to the West Coast, while near-normal temperatures are expected across most of the eastern tier. Conversely, below-normal temperatures are expected across Florida. In terms of precipitation, below-normal precipitation is expected across much of the southern tier of the conterminous U.S. as well as the central and southern Plains, lower Great Basin, and the central and southern Rockies. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is forecasted for the Pacific Northwest, northern California, northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/28)

 

Final 2023 USDA Crop Progress Report - Corn 96% Harvested, Winter Wheat Condition 50% Good to Excellent

OMAHA (DTN) -- About 4% of corn was left to harvest nationally as of Sunday, Nov. 26, and half of the new winter wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, USDA NASS reported in its final national Crop Progress report of 2023 on Monday. The weekly reports will resume on Monday, April 1, 2024.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest inched ahead 3 percentage points last week to reach 96% complete as of Sunday. That is 3 percentage points behind last year's pace of 99% but 1 percentage point ahead of 95% for the five-year average. "Michigan and Ohio are the only two laggards at 79% and 80% complete, respectively," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop progress: 91% of the winter wheat crop had emerged as of Sunday, 1 point ahead of last year's 90% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 89%.

-- Crop condition: Winter wheat condition was rated 50% good to excellent, up 2 percentage points from 48% the previous week and well above 34% at this time a year ago. "Kansas' winter wheat crop condition is rated at just 32% good to excellent," Mantini noted.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Snow in the northern and eastern portions of the Corn Belt could hamper what remains of the corn harvest, while precipitation in the Central Plains and Southern Plains should benefit winter wheat, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Snow and cold over the weekend will make it difficult for those in the northern and Eastern Corn Belt to get much work done this week if they have tasks yet to complete," Baranick said. "The cold will produce lake-effect snow near the Great Lakes through Wednesday before those dry up.

"Heavy snow in parts of the Central Plains will gradually melt away, increasing soil moisture for winter wheat as temperatures rise through the weekend in most places.

"A couple of storm systems will develop in the Southern Plains and move northeast through the country. One will occur Thursday and Friday, and the other this weekend into early next week. Both will produce scattered showers and could be heavy for those in the southeastern quadrant of the country, which will help to ease drought conditions as the country prepares to go into winter."

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/27)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 55 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1808453 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (11/22)

During much of the drought-monitoring period ending November 21, mostly dry weather dominated the country, aside from some downpours in Florida and environs. By November 20-21, however, a storm system crossing the central and eastern U.S. slowed a rapid fieldwork pace but delivered much-needed rain in some of the nation’s key drought areas, including the South. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. corn harvest was 93% complete by November 19, ahead of the 5-year average of 91%. On the same date, harvest progress numbers for sorghum (96% complete), peanuts (92%), and cotton (77%) were also ahead of average. Until the arrival of the late-period storm, precipitation was mostly confined to a few small areas—across the lower Southeast and from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. However, parts of Florida’s peninsula received excessive rainfall (4 to 10 inches or more), as a non-tropical storm system grazed the region. Some precipitation also fell in the West, with many of the highest totals in portions of the Pacific Coast States. For the second week in a row, near- or above-normal temperatures prevailed nearly nationwide.

Northeast

Mostly dry weather during the drought-monitoring period led to some expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2). Still, drought had a relatively small Northeastern footprint, due to antecedent wetness in many areas. Rain was on the doorstep of the region as the monitoring period ended; a reflection of that precipitation will appear next week. By November 19, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture 57% very short to short in West Virginia, highest in the region.

Southeast

Mixed conditions existed during the drought-monitoring period, with torrential rainfall in parts of Florida contrasting with worsening dryness or drought farther north. By November 21, at the end of the period, significant rain overspread western sections of the region, including Alabama, arresting drought intensification. On November 19, before the rain arrived, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture 83% very short to short in Alabama, while 64% of the state’s pastures were rated very poor to poor. Effects of any rain that fell after the data cutoff on November 21 will be reflected next week. Earlier in southern Florida, November 13-16 rainfall officially reached 12.47 inches in North Fort Lauderdale; 10.76 inches in Fort Lauderdale; 10.26 inches in Pembroke Pines; 9.89 inches in Opa Locka; and 8.84 inches in Miami. For all those locations, the heaviest rain fell on November 15, with Miami reporting 7.53 inches. That represented the wettest November day in Miami since November 18, 1992, when 7.56 inches fell. It was also Miami’s wettest day during any time of year since May 22, 2012, when rainfall totaled 9.70 inches. Meanwhile, Marathon, Florida—with 6.68 inches on the 15th—experienced its wettest November day on record (previously, 4.58 inches on November 14, 1954). Significant winds accompanied Florida’s rain, with gusts on November 16 clocked to 57 mph in West Palm Beach; 51 mph in Fort Lauderdale; and 48 mph in Miami. Early on the 16th, an unofficial gust to 86 mph was recorded at Carysfort Reef Light, about 8 miles east-southeast of North Key Largo, Florida. Florida’s rain eventually shifted northward, with Fort Pierce noting a daily-record sum (4.33 inches) for November 16. Fort Pierce collected another record-setting total, 2.37 inches, on November 17.

South

Precipitation fell in some areas both early and late in the drought-monitoring period. In Texas and environs, beneficial impacts from previous rainfall necessitated further improvement in the drought situation, in addition to last week’s changes. Farther east, heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms overspread the Mississippi Delta and neighboring areas late in the monitoring period, with modest reductions in the coverage of exceptional drought (D4) in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. On November 19, prior to the arrival of significant rainfall, pastures were rated at least 60% very poor to poor in Mississippi (69%), Tennessee (61%), and Louisiana (60%). On the same date, Mississippi led the region with topsoil moisture rated 82% very short to short, followed by Louisiana at 81% and Tennessee at 64%.

Midwest

Precipitation arriving late in the drought-monitoring period provided only limited relief in drought-affected areas. Some areas that missed most or all of the moisture turned a bit drier. On November 19, prior to the storminess, Iowa led the Midwest with topsoil moisture rated 69% very short to short, followed by Missouri at 64% and Kentucky at 56%.

High Plains

There were few changes in the drought depiction, despite some light to moderately heavy precipitation late in the monitoring period. By November 19, Kansas led the High Plains with topsoil moisture rated 68% very short to short, followed by Colorado at 64% and Nebraska at 55%. On that date, Kansas also led the U.S. with 32% of its winter wheat rated in very poor to poor condition, nearly twice the national value of 17%.

West

Generally light to locally moderately heavy rain and snow showers dotted the West. There were some additional improvements in the drought situation in the Northwest, and some slight further deterioration in the southern Rockies and environs. New Mexico led the West on November 19 with topsoil moisture rated 77% very short to short.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, weekly rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches were mostly limited to a few western municipalities. The heavier showers bypassed areas experiencing abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1), resulting in no changes to the Puerto Rican depiction.

This USDM week (November 15-21) was dominated by a dry, stable air mass over the USVI (U.S. Virgin Islands) associated with a high pressure ridge. A tropical disturbance (what was called Potential Tropical Cyclone 22) moved near the region later in the week, but its rain kept generally to Puerto Rico and westward, mostly missing the USVI. Weekly rainfall totals, based on data available at the time of this report, mostly ranged from zero to a third of an inch on St. Croix, with one report of 0.66 inch, and ranged from a tenth to a half of an inch on St. Thomas and St. John.

Based on USGS well observations, groundwater levels continued rising on St. John, continued falling on St. Thomas, and rose then leveled off on St. Croix. The depth to water level was 5.92 feet on St. John and 6.09 feet on St. Thomas, both of which are in the top third of the recent historical record, but 33.38 feet on St. Croix, which is in the lowest third of the historical record. Satellite observations (VHI) still showed some stressed vegetation on St. Croix.

On St. Croix, rainfall totals for October ranged from 4.59 inches to 9.74 inches, and thus far in November ranged from 2.62 to 6.61 inches. With a wet October and wet early start to November, the status on St. Croix was improved to D1-L in spite of subnormal rainfall this week. Long-term severe drought (D2-L) continued on St. Thomas, while St. John continued with a D-Nothing status (no drought or abnormal dryness).

Pacific

Alaska remained completely free of abnormal dryness (D0), as unsettled weather prevailed. In southeastern Alaska, Ketchikan collected 8.33 inches of rain from November 16-18. In south-central Alaska, Anchorage achieved its snowiest November on record, with 39.2 inches falling by the 20th. The previous November record in Anchorage, set in 1994, had been 38.8 inches.

In Hawaii, a weakening cold front delivered beneficial showers across the western islands, especially Kauai. Aside from some localized improvement in windward sections of Kauai (removal of abnormal dryness, D0), Maui (from severe to moderate drought, D2 to D1); and the Big Island (from D2 to D1), the general trend was for gradually worsening drought. This included the addition of extreme drought (D3) along the southwestern coast of Oahu, as well as the Big Island’s “saddle” region between Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

USAPI (U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands) Overview: Several tropical systems brought rain to much of Micronesia during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (November 15-21); only a few areas received less than the minimum precipitation needed to meet most water needs. Monthly rainfall totals so far this November have been wet (above month-to-date minimums) across the Marianas, Palau, and most of the Marshall Islands. Parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) were wet and other parts dry, both for the week and for the month to date. American Samoa continued to suffer from hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall.

Rain from what was Tropical Depression 17W gave Palau a wet week, with weekly rainfall totals around 5 inches and month-to-date totals around 8 inches, while a squall line brought mesocyclone rain to the Marianas. Weekly precipitation totals were well above 2 inches at the primary Marianas stations, with November-to-date totals from 4 to over 6 inches. All locations in Palau and the Marianas continued at D-Nothing (no drought or abnormal dryness).

A monsoon-like trough with a couple embedded disturbances brought rain to much of the FSM and Marshall Islands, although parts of the FSM missed out on the rain. Weekly and month-to-date rainfall totals were below the corresponding minimums needed to meet most water needs, based on data available at the time of this report, at Lukunor, Pingelap, and Ulithi. Lukunor reported 0.36 inch for the week and 1.52 inches for the month to date, which are below the weekly minimum of 2 inches and monthly minimum of 5.60 inches for this far in November. Ulithi had 0.50 inch for the week and 2.63 inches for November, while Pingelap reported 1.01 and 3.64 inches, respectively. For each of these stations, this week marked the third consecutive dry week, so their status was changed to D0-S (short-term abnormally dry). At Yap and Wotje, this week and the month to date were below the corresponding minimums, but the previous week was wet, so their status remained at D-Nothing. With this week wet and/or the month-to-date wet, the rest of the locations in the Marshalls and FSM continued at D-Nothing.

A strong high pressure system over American Samoa inhibited precipitation this week and brought unusually hot temperatures that prompted heat advisories. A record high temperature occurred at Pago Pago on November 15 when the reading reached 91 degrees F. The last 2 weeks have been dry, with only 0.14 inch and 0.55 inch of rain recorded at the Pago Pago airport last week and so far this week, respectively. The month-to-date total was 1.93 inches at Pago Pago and 2.75 inches at the automated station on Toa Ridge, both of which are below corresponding minimums. With the previous week and October wet, D-Nothing continued at Tutuila this week, but D0-S may be considered next week if dry conditions continue.

Looking Ahead

A low-pressure system crossing the Midwest will gradually weaken and drift eastward, while a trailing cold front will largely clear the Atlantic Seaboard by Wednesday. Additional rainfall across the eastern one-third of the U.S. could reach 1 to 3 inches, especially in the middle Atlantic States. Thanksgiving Day, November 23, will feature mild, dry weather across much of the country, although snow may blanket portions of the northern and central Rockies. The generally quiet pattern should last through the weekend after Thanksgiving, with most areas experiencing seasonable temperatures and minimal precipitation. In fact, negligible precipitation is expected during the next 5 days in much of the Mississippi Valley, as well as an area stretching from California to Texas.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for November 27 – December 1 calls for the likelihood of near- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation across most of the country. Warmer-than-normal weather will be confined to southern Florida and areas along the Pacific Coast, as well as the nation’s norther tier from Washington to Montana. Meanwhile, wetter-than-normal conditions should be limited to the Deep South, from the southern half of Texas to the southern Atlantic Coast.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/21)

 

USDA Crop Progress Report - 7% of Corn Left to Harvest, Soybean Harvest Wraps Up as of Nov. 19

OMAHA (DTN) -- Most soybean fields have been harvested, while about 7% of the nation's corn crop was left to harvest as of Sunday, Nov. 19, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest moved ahead 5 percentage points to reach 93% complete as of Sunday, Nov. 19. That is 3 percentage points behind last year's pace of 96% but still 2 percentage points ahead of 91% for the five-year average. "Michigan remains below its usual pace at 67% harvested, and Pennsylvania is also slower than usual at 70% harvested," noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting inched ahead another 2 percentage points last week to reach 95% complete as of Sunday. That is 3 percentage points behind last year's 98% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 96%.

-- Crop progress: 87% of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, 1 point ahead of last year's 86% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 85%.

-- Crop condition: Winter wheat condition was rated 48% good to excellent, up 1 percentage point from 47% the previous week and still well above 32% at this time a year ago. "Thirty-two percent of the crop in Kansas is rated poor to very poor," Hultman said.

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

The weather for the rest of this week could pose some challenges for remaining fieldwork, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"For those with work yet to do in the Eastern Corn Belt, this week will be a bit difficult to do it," Baranick said. "A storm system will be moving through early this week, spreading mostly rain through Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A stronger cold front will be moving through Wednesday through the end of the week from north to south. The front itself may not have much precipitation with it, but behind the front, it looks like a good setup for heavy snow in the High Plains and especially those right up next to the Rockies. That starts in the northern half of the High Plains Thursday and migrates south behind the front to end the week.

"For those that missed out on the storm system this past weekend and early this week, it looks like a good chance for snow. That could disrupt travel plans for those going out to visit friends and family for the Thanksgiving holiday, though. Cold air will follow behind that front but will mostly be seasonably cold. Those with snow cover will see colder temperatures, however."

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/20)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 53 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1906983 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (11/16)

During the drought-monitoring period ending November 14, precipitation was focused across a few geographic areas, including portions of the Northwest, South, and Great Lakes region. In places where precipitation fell, winter grains, cover crops, and rangeland and pastures generally benefited from the boost in topsoil moisture. That was especially true in the South, which has been contending with serious “flash drought” issues, including a rash of autumn wildfires. However, Southern rainfall coverage was spotty, with many areas receiving only light showers. Elsewhere, Northwestern precipitation was heaviest from the Cascades westward, although key agricultural areas farther inland received some moisture. Following a nearly nationwide cold outbreak in late October and early November, warmth returned across most of the country, amplifying drought impacts in some of the driest areas.

Northeast

Northeastern drought currently has a small footprint, but those areas experiencing dryness (D0) or moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) generally received minimal precipitation during the drought-monitoring period. Some of the driest areas included parts of western New York and the eastern slopes of the central Appalachians. On November 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture 48% very short to short in West Virginia, along with 57% in Delaware and 48% in Maryland.

Southeast

Flash drought continued to rapidly develop and expand across the Southeast, with impacts on the emergence and establishment of fall-sown crops. In addition, Southeastern wildfires have been a problem in recent weeks, with dozens of large fires burning hundreds or thousands of acres of vegetation and fallen leaves. In Virginia, the Quaker Run Fire—partly burning in Shenandoah National Park—has scorched nearly 4,000 acres. In southwestern North Carolina, the Collett Ridge Fire has charred more than 5,300 acres. On November 12, Alabama led the nation with topsoil moisture rated 89% very short to short, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Other Southeastern States above one-half very short to short were North Carolina (75%), Georgia (69%), South Carolina (65%), and Virginia (63%). During the week exceptional drought (D4) expanded further into northern sections of Alabama and Georgia.

South

Heavy rain in parts of Texas and along the Gulf Coast contrasted with mostly dry weather farther north and inland. Accordingly, one- to locally two-category improvements in the drought depiction were noted in western, central, eastern, and southern Texas, while other areas experienced either no change or one-category drought deterioration. In fact, exceptional drought (D4) expanded further into the Tennessee Valley and environs. On November 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture 88% very short to short in Louisiana, along with 84% in Mississippi. On the same date, pastures were rated 71% very poor to poor in Mississippi, along with 57% in Louisiana and 56% in Tennessee.

Midwest

Significant precipitation was limited to parts of the upper Great Lakes region, with the remainder of the Midwest experiencing mild, mostly dry weather. Those conditions were ideal for autumn fieldwork, with the U.S. soybean harvest 95% complete by November 12. In addition, 88% of the nation’s corn had been harvested on that date. However, soil moisture shortages remained a concern for some fall-sown crops, including winter wheat and cover crops. On November 12, topsoil moisture was rated more than one-half very short to short in Iowa (58%) and Missouri (53%), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

High Plains

Pockets of drought were mainly focused across eastern and southern sections of the region, with worsening conditions noted in parts of Kansas and neighboring states. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, topsoil moisture was rated more than one-half very short to short on November 12 in Kanas (69%), Nebraska (61%), and Colorado (60%). On the same date, 17% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated in very poor to poor condition, although state-level numbers were higher in Kansas (33% very poor to poor) and Nebraska (18%).

West

Aside from modest improvements in the Northwestern drought situation, there were few changes in the depiction. Despite the recent Northwestern precipitation, some interior agricultural areas remained dry, with topsoil moisture rated (on November 12, by the U.S. Department of Agriculture) 55% very short to short in Washington, along with 41% in Oregon. In addition, more than one-quarter (29%) of Oregon’s winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition on that date. Farther south, New Mexico led the region on November 12 with topsoil moisture rated 75% very short to short, despite patchy precipitation during the drought-monitoring period.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, locally heavy showers in some northern and eastern locations further chipped away at any remaining dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1). Following a 5.20-inch rainfall on October 27, San Juan, Puerto Rico, received at least a trace of rain on each of the first 14 days of November, totaling 3.11 inches.

The drought status of the U.S. Virgin Islands remains unchanged this week with St. Thomas and St. Croix at D2, severe drought, while St. John remains drought-free. Rainfall for the islands as reported by local observers was 0.48 inches for St. Thomas, between 1.72 and 5.60 inches on St. Croix, and 1.52 and 2.81 inches for St. John.

While ample rainfall on St. Croix would seem to favor improvement, the well level at a depth to water of more than 33.5 feet remained extremely low. The well has responded to recent rainfall by rising a little more than a foot over the past week, but was still very low.

The Standardized Precipitation Index for St. Thomas indicated mild to moderate dryness at all time scales. St. Croix was neutral at most time scales and mildly dry at 9 and 12 months. St. John was neutral or mildly wet on short time scales.

Pacific

A lingering patch of abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from Alaska, which received locally heavy precipitation. Snow was heaviest in parts of southern Alaska, where Anchorage measured 37.9 inches of snow (2.92 inches of liquid equivalency) during the first 13 days of November. The snowiest November in Anchorage occurred in 1994, with 38.8 inches.

In Hawaii, a significant autumn dry spell continued, with 94% of the state considered to be in drought for the second consecutive week. In early November, periods of gusty trade winds led to an enhanced wildfire threat. On Oahu, the Mililani Fire charred more than 1,600 acres of grass, brush, and forest. Kahului, Maui, clocked winds of at least 40 mph on 7 of the first 14 days of the month, including a peak gust to 48 mph on November 12. At the state’s major airport observation sites, November 1-14 rainfall ranged from 0.02 inch (2 percent of normal) in Honolulu, Oahu, to 2.06 inches (32 percent) in Hilo, on the Big Island.

The Republic of Palau received adequate rainfall with 2.29 inches at Palau IAP and 1.36 inches for Koror COOP.

The Mariana Islands all received less than an inch of rain, but have gotten enough in recent weeks to be free of drought. Guam received 0.76 inches, while Rota reported 0.74 inches. Saipan received 0.12 and 0.56 inches at Saipan ASOS and the IAP gauges. These islands need an inch weekly to meet minimum water needs.

The Federal States of Micronesia were mixed in terms of precipitation, but had no drought in the territory. Fananu, Lukunor, Pingelap, Ulithi, Woleai and Yap all received less than 2 inches of rainfall, according to the received data, but have gotten enough rain in recent weeks to have adequate water supplies. Chuuk and Kapingamarangi received more than 5.5 inches of rainfall in the past week, while Kosrae reported 11.20 inches.

The Marshall Islands all received more than 3 inches of precipitation for the week, with Ailinglaplap reporting 12.04 inches. The Majuro reservoir held 34.884 million gallons on Nov. 14. Weeks of improved rainfall for Wotje resulted in removal of D0, making all locations in the Marshall Islands free of dryness.

American Samoa remained free of dryness. Pago Pago, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge all received less than an inch of rain, which is the amount these locations need to meet minimum water needs. Rainfall the previous week exceeded an inch, leaving them in good stead.

Looking Ahead

Mostly dry weather will prevail during the next several days across the nation’s mid-section, including the Plains and upper Midwest. Farther south, showers will continue to shift eastward along and near the Gulf Coast, with the potential for late-week rain and gusty winds in parts of Florida. During the weekend, a low-pressure system accelerating northward near the Atlantic Seaboard could result in coastal wind and rain in New England. Elsewhere, a storm system parked west of California will remain offshore for the next couple of days, although rain and snow showers will spread inland at times. Late in the weekend, some of the Pacific storm energy interacting with a surge of cold air arriving from western Canada should lead to an increase in rain and snow shower activity across parts of the western and central U.S., although precipitation will initially be light. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for November 21 – 25 calls for the likelihood of below-normal temperatures east of the Rockies, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail in the West. Meanwhile, below-normal precipitation in most areas west of the Mississippi River should contrast with wetter-than-normal weather in the East, as well as northern sections of the Rockies and High Plains.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/14)