December Ag Prices Received Index Down 0.4 Percent; Prices Paid Index Down 0.5 Percent

December Prices Received Index Down 0.4 Percent   

The December Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 113.5, decreased 0.4 percent from November and 18 percent from December 2022. At 101.7, the Crop Production Index was up 0.7 percent from last month but down 21 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 130.0, decreased 3.0 percent from November, and 14 percent from December last year. Producers received lower prices during December for cattle, milk, hogs, and turkeys, but higher prices for broilers, corn, onions, and eggs. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In December, there was decreased monthly movement for corn, grapes, soybeans, and calves, and increased marketing of broilers, milk, wheat, and cotton.    

December Prices Paid Index Down 0.5 Percent   

The December Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 137.6, is down 0.5 percent from November 2023 and 0.6 percent from December 2022. Lower prices in December for feeder cattle, diesel, complete feeds, and gasoline more than offset higher prices for feeder pigs, LP gas, nitrogen, and potash & phosphate. 

Crop Progress - State Stories

IDAHO: The average temperatures in Idaho were above normal for the southern regions, but below normal for the northern regions for the month of January. Accumulated precipitation was normal to below normal across most of Idaho, with parts of southern Idaho slightly above normal. Clearwater, Idaho, Adams, and Valley Counties reported calving had begun for producers. Temperatures recovered after the deep freeze received at the beginning of the month. The rise in temperatures caused significant snow to melt on croplands. Ada and Owyhee Counties reported that calving and lambing were well underway. Temperatures and precipitation were above normal. Hay stocks were in good condition, with plenty of hay in all classes. Elmore County reported isolated snowstorms and accumulated drifts. Temperatures hit below freezing for one week this month but warmed up since, with some runoff observed. The subsoil frost line was not as deep as anticipated, so the moisture from the snow melt and rain showers soaked in. Jerome and Twin Falls Counties reported average to above average temperatures, with significant snow and rainfall across the valley. Most of the snow had melted except what was in the drifts. Fields were too wet for any field activity, including hauling manure. Bonneville and Madison Counties reported that snowpacks remained at average levels. Forage stocks were adequate for typical winter and spring needs. Calving season had begun. Clark, Custer, and Lemhi Counties reported that ranchers were starting to calve. Fremont, Madison, and Teton Counties reported that temperatures ranged from below average to above average. Some intense snowstorms helped snowpack in the middle of the month, with less snow than usual. Bannock, Bingham, and Butte Counties reported that lambing and calving operations were proceeding well. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of January 2024. Topsoil moisture 14% very short, 54% short, 30% adequate, 2% surplus. Subsoil moisture 23% very short, 46% short, 28% adequate. 3% surplus. Winter wheat condition 3% poor, 56% fair, 41% good. Winter wheat wind damage 15% moderate, 37% light, 48% none. Winter wheat freeze damage 1% severe, 20% moderate, 32% light, 47% none. Snow cover 8% very poor, 54% poor, 21% fair, 17% good. Pasture and range condition 19% very poor, 35% poor, 40% fair, 5% good, 1% excellent. Grazing accessibility 50% open, 35% difficult, 15% closed. Cows calved 4%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 92%. Ewes lambed 3%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 95%. Montana experienced a cold January, Temperatures were, on average, in a range of 4 to 8 degrees below normal for most of the State, according to data from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). A few isolated areas experienced temperatures as much as 10 degrees below average. Precipitation levels were at or below average for much of the State. Some areas received slightly higher amounts of moisture. Certain northern and central areas received as much as 0.75 inch of moisture above normal. Drought conditions deteriorated according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report released for January 23, 2024. The amount of land rated drought free fell to 20 percent, compared with 44 percent as reported on December 26. Abnormal dryness was found across 41 percent of Montana, compared with 37 percent on the same December release. Moderate drought stood at 26 percent, up 10 percentage points from December. Severe drought was found in about 13 percent of the State, also up 10 percentage points from December. Beneficial snow fell in Golden Valley and Musselshell Counties earlier in January. With the ongoing warm conditions however, the snow cover was expected to melt. Farmers did not see much snow this winter until January in Valley County. More moisture was needed. Winter wheat was suffering with current snow depth at 4 inches at the most. The existing snow was expected to dissipate with the upcoming warmer weather forecasts. 

NEVADA: For the week ending January 28 - Days suitable for fieldwork 6.2. Topsoil moisture 35% adequate and 65% surplus. Subsoil moisture 5% short, 35% adequate, and 60% surplus. Pasture and range condition 25% fair, 10% good, and 65% excellent. As of January 28, the US Drought Monitor showed 94% of the State was not in drought. Snowstorms and scattered rain throughout the month have led to a surplus of moisture in most of the State. 

OREGON: Temperatures in the northern region of the State were below average, with the southern region above average for the month of January. Moisture conditions throughout the State ranged from dry to very wet for January. Polk County reported below average temperatures with above average precipitation. Columbia, Multnomah, and Washington Counties reported saturated soil with flooding in some regions due to ice and heavy rain. The cold cycle damaged some container nursery stocks while other crops were still being assessed. Cane berries and Marionberries were at risk, but indications were optimistic. Agronomic crop damage was negligible. Clatsop and Tillamook Counties reported above average precipitation with field conditions too wet for activity. Pasture growth remained dormant. Hood River, Sherman, and Wasco Counties reported that the start of the month was an average winter. Towards the middle of the month, temperatures dropped below freezing, and a foot of snow was received, followed by freezing rain. The snow covered the crops, which protected them from the frigid temperatures. Temperatures at the end of the month warmed up, causing snow to melt. Morrow County reported adequate precipitation that improved yield potential and increased the probability of a significant stripe rust outbreak. Baker County reported that temperatures were subzero at the beginning of the month. Still, temperatures and precipitation were above average towards the end of the month.

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of January 2024. Topsoil moisture 3% short, 82% adequate, 15% surplus. Subsoil moisture 6% short, 82% adequate, 12% surplus. Pasture and range condition 7% poor, 19% fair, 71% good, 3% excellent. Winter wheat condition 11% poor, 17% fair, 59% good, 13% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 1% very short, 3% short, 74% adequate, 22% surplus. Stock water supplies 83% adequate, 17% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 1% poor, 5% fair, 79% good, 15% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 1% poor, 8% fair, 73% good, 18% surplus. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 84%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 72%. Cows calved 3%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 1%. Ewes lambed-range flock 1%. Mild temperatures along with snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of January. Snowpack in Utah, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service as of January 29, 2024, was 99 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Box Elder County reports above normal temperatures along with average snowpack. Beaver County reports noted that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues. 

WASHINGTON: Western Washington saw a cold snap in the first half of the month. There was less precipitation than normal, but most fields were wet and oversaturated with the snowmelt. In central Washington, there was significant rain and snow. Snow was still on the ground, but temperatures rose above freezing daily, and the snow settled. Crops had good cover. The ground under the snow was not frozen, so moisture soaked through and should be helpful to crops. In Yakima County, there was precipitation in both snow and rain. Patches of snow were still left in hop yards, orchards, and corn fields. There was a cold stretch during the middle of the month, but during the warmer days, there was pruning in stone fruits. In east central Washington, crop conditions were normal for this time of year. Snow levels receded with the recent warmer weather and rain. Northeastern Washington had cold weather in mid-January with little snow to cover crops. Calving was on the way in some areas. In southeast Washington, January started with record low temperatures, which potentially caused some livestock deaths. Snowpack in the mountains was below normal. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of January 2024. Topsoil moisture 12% very short, 47% short, 41% adequate. Subsoil moisture 11% very short, 52% short, 37% adequate. Winter wheat condition 4% very poor, 7% poor, 62% fair, 26% good, 1% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 1% very short, 1% short, 97% adequate, 1% surplus. Livestock condition 1% very poor, 1% poor, 2% fair, 95% good, 1% excellent. Stock water supplies 1% very short, 1% short, 97% adequate, 1% surplus. Pasture and range condition 1% very poor, 2% poor, 56% fair, 40% good, 1% surplus. Wyoming received little relief from the ongoing drought conditions during the month of January. Precipitation was scattered and total accumulations varied, ranging from a trace to as much as 6 inches during the month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Some areas received no measurable moisture. Temperatures varied across the State, ranging from 10 degrees below average to 6 degrees above average. Drought conditions worsened during January according to the United States Drought Monitor report published on January 23, 2024. The amount of land rated drought free equaled 41 percent, compared with 75 percent on December 26, 2023. Abnormally dry conditions covered 53 percent of Wyoming, and moderate drought was found in 6 percent.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/30)

 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/29)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 74 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1069489 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (1/25)

The current period was dry over most of the country with the greatest amount of precipitation occurring along the west coast and from east Texas into Arkansas. Temperatures were well below normal for most locations east of the Rocky Mountains, where departures were 5 degrees or more below normal for most areas. The greatest departures from normal were over Tennessee, Kentucky, and northern portions of Alabama and Mississippi where readings were 20-25 degrees below normal. The warm winter continued in the West with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal over a majority of the region. The warmer-than-normal temperatures have been a challenge for snow accumulation with many locations, especially in the northern Rockies, having a very challenging start to the snow accumulation season. With an active pattern through the central Plains into the Midwest the past few weeks, a reassessment of drought indicators was done in many locations this week to examine drought intensity levels and adjust where the data supported it. In most instances, drought remains but the data allowed for intensities to be reduced. The end of the period had an active pattern again developing in the southern Plains and into the South where widespread precipitation was anticipated after the data cutoff for this week. These locations will be assessed on next week’s map.

Northeast

Temperatures were below normal for all of the region outside of northern Maine, with the greatest departures over Pennsylvania, Maryland and West Virginia where departures were 12-15 degrees below normal. Even though this week was dry for the region, the recent wetter pattern has not changed conditions much at all, especially with the cooler temperatures. Drought still remains over western New York and in the coastal areas of Massachusetts where hydrological impacts remain. There were no changes to the drought depiction for this week for this region.

Southeast

A dry week for the region outside of some isolated showers in southern and eastern Florida. Temperatures were below normal for all areas outside of south Florida, and the greatest departures were over Tennessee with areas up to 25 degrees below normal for the week. Earlier this week, portions of northern Alabama still had ice remaining on the landscape and some discussions took place that this was the biggest cold outbreak since the mid-1990s. A reassessment of conditions over Virgina allowed for some reduction of abnormally dry conditions. Moderate drought was eliminated from South Carolina and into northeastern Georgia based on the last several weeks. Much of eastern Tennessee had continued improvement to the drought status, with more improvements made this week with a full category improvement in the east as well as some reduction of extreme drought in the west. A few pockets in northern and southwestern Alabama had abnormally dry and moderate drought improved this week as well.

South

Cooler-than-normal conditions dominated the region with departures of 10-15 degrees below normal common in the region. The greatest rains took place in east Texas to southwest Arkansas and into southeast Oklahoma. These rains continued past the data cutoff period and everything from Tuesday morning forward will be assessed on the next map. The rains allowed for some improvements, with a full category change over much of east Texas and improvements to moderate drought over central and northern Arkansas as well as the far northwest corner of Louisiana and southeast Oklahoma.

Midwest

Temperatures were below normal over the entire region this week with the greatest departures over Kentucky, where temperatures were 16-20 degrees below normal. There was some isolated precipitation over Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Iowa and northern Minnesota. A reassessment of the data over western and southern Iowa allowed for some improvement to the extreme and severe drought in these areas. It was reported that insulation from the snow has kept soils thawed in some areas, and moisture infiltration is being observed in soils. The last pocket of extreme drought was removed in southern Missouri along with improvements to severe drought here. Moderate drought was reduced in northwest and east central Missouri as the recent wetter pattern has allowed a shift in the physical indicators.

High Plains

It was a mostly dry week over much of the region with only eastern Kansas receiving widespread, albeit light, precipitation. Temperatures were below normal for all areas outside the plains of Colorado and Wyoming and northern North Dakota where they were 3-6 degrees above normal. Outside of these areas, temperatures were generally 9-15 degrees below normal for the week. The wetter pattern over the last several months allowed for a reassessment of the data to investigate potential changes in the drought intensity levels. It was noted that even though the last 9-12 months have a stronger signal toward the wet spectrum, there are still long-term issues that go out 24-36 months or more in much of the central Plains. In looking at the data, support for the existing extreme drought in eastern Nebraska was not there, so it was improved to severe drought this week. In Kansas, areas of moderate and severe drought were also improved based on the lagging support for these intensity levels. Degradation took place over portions of northern North Dakota and eastern Wyoming where abnormally dry conditions were expanded based on the short-term dryness in these regions.

West

Above-normal temperatures dominated much of the region with departures of 9-12 degrees above normal over portions of western Wyoming, northern Nevada, central Idaho and northeast Utah. Temperatures were cooler than normal over Washington, northern Oregon, northern Idaho and much of Montana. The greatest rains were along the coast with some flooding issues being reported this week, especially in southern California. Further inland, it remained dry and the dryness coupled with the warmer temperatures has allowed for snow drought to develop, especially in the northern Rocky Mountains. The wetter pattern over the most recent weeks allowed for a reassessment of conditions over New Mexico and into eastern Arizona, where improvements were made. Areas of extreme and exceptional drought were reduced this week in western New Mexico while severe drought was improved in western New Mexico into eastern Arizona. Moderate drought was expanded over western Wyoming and severe drought was expanded over western Montana. Oregon had moderate and severe drought improvements in the west while moderate drought expanded in the central portion of the state. Washington saw moderate drought improved along the northwest coast and western portions of the state with abnormally dry conditions expanding in the north central.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico had widespread degradation over the northern and southern portions of the islands. Fires as well as groundwater levels have continued to be a problem.

Recent weather has grown drier on St. John, where rainfall at Windswept Beach totaled only 0.14 inches, which increased the one- and two-month deficits there. In tandem with the dry weather, groundwater levels have steadily dropped over the last week. Given these factors, short-term abnormal dryness has redeveloped there. On St. Thomas, rain reports from this week topped out at 0.32 inches. Groundwater levels dropped this week and were similar to levels from two weeks ago, prolonging severe long-term drought. On St. Croix, short-term rainfall deficits were in the abnormally dry to moderate drought range, groundwater levels remained close to the same and short- and long-term moderate drought continued.

Pacific

There were no changes in Alaska this week.

In Hawaii, conditions continued to improve on Maui with even more flooding reported this week. Moderate drought was removed from west Maui and abnormally dry conditions improved on western areas of Maui and on Kahoolawe. On the Big Island, abnormally dry conditions spread over the northeast part of the island and moderate drought slightly improved in the northwest.

Rainfall on Palau totaled 1.55 at Airai and 1.15 inches at the Koror cooperative observing site, and Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.

American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week as heavy rain fell in multiple locations. Siufaga Ridge received 4.73 inches of rain, Toa Ridge received 5.91 inches of rain, and Pago Pago received 7.49 inches of rain.

Short-term abnormal dryness continued this week across the Mariana Islands. Rainfall on Saipan totaled 0.49 inches. In Guam, rain totaled 1.04 inches at the primary climate monitoring station; CoCoRaHs observations ranged between 0.69 and 0.98 inches. Given recent dry weather there, short-term abnormal dryness continued for another week, though conditions have likely improved some with this week’s rain. Short-term abnormal dryness also continued on Rota this week, where rain totaled 0.62 inches.

Short-term abnormal dryness continued in Kwajalein this week, where 1.36 inches of rain were reported, marking the fifth consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. After a couple very dry weeks, a deluge of 7.34 inches of rain fell in Ailinglaplap, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. After 3 of the last 4 weeks had been completely dry, 2.79 inches of rain were reported on Jaluit this week. While this likely helped conditions some, short-term abnormal dryness continued for another week. No data were reported for Utirik, so no Drought Monitor depiction was made. Short-term moderate drought continued on Wotje, where 0.36 inches of rain were recorded this week, marking the tenth consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. Short-term moderate drought developed on Majuro, which recorded 0.42 inches of rain this week, marking the fifth consecutive week with less than an inch of rain.

Through January 23, this January has been the driest in 70 years of record-keeping there. Short-term abnormal dryness continued this week on Mili, where 1.78 inches of rain fell. While this marked the fifth consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rainfall, conditions likely improved a bit compared to the previous four weeks, two of which were completely dry.

Severe short-term drought continued on Yap and Ulithi this week. Yap reported 0.66 inches of rain, marking another rather dry week there, while Ulithi reported 0.62 inches. Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Woleai, where 1.61 inches of rain were reported. No data were reported for Fananu, so no Drought Monitor depiction was made there. Near the end of the period, rainfall totals increased to 7.12 inches on Chuuk, and abnormal dryness there was removed. Short-term abnormal dryness continued this week on Lukunor, where 2.96 inches of rain was reported. Conditions likely improved some this week, though the five previous weeks all fell below two inches of rain. Short-term abnormal dryness improved to normal conditions on Nukuoro, where over 10 inches of rain fell this week. Kapingamarangi reported 2.09 inches of rain this week, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Short-term moderate drought continued on Pohnpei, though 5.04 inches of rain were reported this week.

January rainfall, while significantly higher than last week, is still well below normal to date. Continued heavier rains there would likely improve the situation. Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Pingelap, where 2.63 inches of rain fell this week. Short-term abnormal dryness was removed from Kosrae after 11.23 inches of rain fell this week.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, the active pattern over the South and Southeast will continue, with much of the region anticipating 3-5 inches of precipitation. The coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest also will remain active with the next system coming ashore. Dry conditions are expected over the central and northern Plains, northern Rocky Mountains and Southwest. Temperatures will flip back to a warmer-than-normal pattern for most of the country, with greatest departures above normal over the northern Plains and upper Midwest.

The 6–10 day outlooks show a high probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures over much of the U.S. during this period with the highest probabilities over the Plains and Upper Midwest. There is a high probability of below-normal temperatures over Alaska and much of Florida. The precipitation outlook has the highest probability of below-normal precipitation over much of the eastern third of the U.S. with the greatest chances over the Ohio River valley. There are above-normal chances of above-normal precipitation over much of the West and into the Plains during this time.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/23)

 

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/22)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.

Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 71 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1156184 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (1/18)

It was another stormy week across much of the eastern lower 48 states leading to widespread drought improvements from the Mississippi River Valley eastward to the Appalachians. A powerful storm system early in the week (January 9-10) brought heavy rainfall to parts of the eastern U.S., with most locations from Georgia to New England picking up more than 2 inches of precipitation, leading to flooding for several locations. In some locations across the Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast, flooding was exacerbated by melting snow left over from a winter storm hitting the region the previous weekend (January 6-7). Behind the powerful storm system early this week, cold air plunged southward from Canada across the northern tier states, gradually spreading southward and eastward and overtaking most of the country east of the Rockies by the end of the week (January 16). Toward the end of the week, another storm system dropped wintry precipitation in a swath stretching from the Ozarks eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Across the western lower 48 states, precipitation was above average for the week, leading to targeted improvements to drought areas across the Intermountain West, where snowpack continues to build for several locations. Unfortunately, weekly precipitation and seasonal snowpack remain below normal this week across the Southwest and northern Rockies, leading to some degradation of drought conditions. No changes are warranted in Alaska this week, as the snowpack is in good shape statewide. Hawaii received more heavy rainfall this week, predominantly from a Kona Low early on, leading to improvement. Conversely, another warm and dry week in Puerto Rico warranted another round of degradation.

Northeast

A strong storm system moved up the Eastern Seaboard in the days leading up to this week, which brought heavy snowfall to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At the start of this week (January 9-10), another powerful storm system dropped more heavy precipitation, primarily in the form of rain, across much of the East Coast leading to flooding in several locations, which was exacerbated by snowmelt left behind by the previous storm. The heavy precipitation (well over 2 inches for many locations) warrants improvement to drought (D1-D2) and abnormally dry (D0) conditions across the central Appalachians, localized abnormally dry areas of coastal Massachusetts, and improvement to severe drought (D2) conditions in western New York. Despite the heavy rainfall region-wide, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard largely missed out on the heavier rainfall totals warranting no changes. Groundwater recharge remains a concern for those islands.

Southeast

Short- and long-term drought conditions improved this week throughout the Southeast, associated with the passage of a strong storm system early on in the week and another heading into the weekend. Broad 1-category improvements to the drought depiction are warranted across portions of the southern and central Appalachians and extending into the Piedmont of Virginia, where many locations received over 2 inches of rainfall this week. Improvement to ongoing drought is also warranted across the western Florida Peninsula, where heavy rains (in excess of 2 inches, and locally more than 4 inches) fell along a frontal boundary early in the week.

South

Much of the precipitation this week fell across portions of the Ozarks and Tennessee Valley, associated with a couple of storm systems leading up to the start of the weekend (January 13), with many locations receiving in excess of 1 inch of rainfall. Toward the end of the week (January 15-16), a winter storm dropped several inches of snowfall across many of these same locations. Given the wetter than average conditions last week and another round of above average precipitation again this week, widespread improvement to drought conditions are warranted across portions of Arkansas and Tennessee. In parts of southern Texas, some degradation to the drought depiction is warranted, where short-term precipitation deficits are starting to mount. No changes are warranted elsewhere across the region due to above average precipitation last week and cold temperatures spreading across the region this week.

Midwest

Precipitation well in excess of 200 percent of average for the week warrants widespread improvements to the drought depiction across the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys and the southern Great Lakes. Short-term drought indicators are showing marked improvements in recent weeks and soil moisture and hydrologic conditions (such as stream flows and groundwater) continue to improve for many locations, particularly across the Corn Belt.

High Plains

Storminess in recent weeks and frigid temperatures this week warrant no changes across much of the Central and Northern Plains. However, there are mixed improvements (Colorado Plateau) and degradations (High Plains along the Front Range) warranted this week. Improvements to snowpack and short-term precipitation deficits this week warrant the improvements across the Colorado Plateau. Conversely, the lack of seasonal snow cover has led to degradations across parts of the High Plains along the Front Range, due to topsoils being exposed and drying out.

West

Some degradation of drought conditions is warranted where below average precipitation was observed this week. This is especially the case across western portions of Montana, where below average seasonal snow cover has left soils predominantly exposed, resulting in a slow decline in soil moisture over the past couple of months. On the other hand, targeted improvements are warranted across parts of the Pacific Northwest and eastern Great Basin, where 7-day precipitation totals and storminess in recent weeks have improved some of the long-term drought indicators. The active storm track in recent weeks has also led to gradual improvements to seasonal snowpack for several locations across the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and portions of the Colorado Plateau.

Caribbean

Another week of above average temperatures and below average precipitation during what is already a dry time of the year resulted in a widespread 1-category degradation of conditions across Puerto Rico for the second week in a row. Stream flows are running well below normal throughout the island and rainfall deficits continue to climb.

A nearby front brought periods of clouds and scattered showers to the USVI this past drought week (Wed, Jan 10 – Tue, Jan 16, 2024), with maximum rainfall accumulation just over one inch. Mid to upper-level high pressure and drier air prevented the development of deep convection/widespread thundershower activity during the week. Breezy conditions ensued later in the period as building surface high pressure over the western Atlantic strengthened the pressure gradient over the northeastern Caribbean.

Satellite-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) from SPoRT IMERG imagery depicted rainfall amounts less than 0.75-inch during the week ending January 16th, though several rain gauges recorded locally greater amounts.

Rain gauge measurements across St. Croix this week ranged from 0.10-inch at station VI-SC-24 (Christiansted 2.1 ENE) to 0.76-inch at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE). Intermediate rainfall amounts included 0.18-inch at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), 0.22-inch at East Hill, 0.32-inch at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W), 0.37-inch at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW), 0.45-inch at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 0.46-inch at VI-SC-29 (Frederiksted 2.5 NNE), and 0.75-inch at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE). At the Adventure 28 Well, groundwater levels ranged from 32.84 feet (Jan 10, midnight) to 33.01 feet (Jan 16, 8am AST), a net fall of -0.17 feet. St. Croix’s drought depiction remains unchanged this week at D1(SL).

St. John received considerable precipitation this week, with 1.04 inches measured at VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach), 1.00 inch at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E), and 0.76-inch of rain at VI-SJ-4 (Cruz Bay 0.8 NE). The groundwater level at the Susannaberg DPW-3 Well fell slightly this week by -0.32 feet. Drought-free conditions persist at St. John this week.

Weekly rainfall accumulations on St. Thomas ranged from 0.39-inch at VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West 4.2 WNW) to 0.83-inch at VI-ST-14 (Nadir 0.3E, Tropical Marine). Intermediate rainfall amounts included 0.52-inch at VI-ST-1 (Anna’s Retreat 2.5 ESE), 0.74-inch at VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West 1.3 N), and 0.79-inch of rain at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie 1.2 NNW). The Grade School 3 Well reported a water level of 10.62 feet (Jan 10, midnight) which rose +1.36 feet to 9.26 feet below the land surface (Jan 16, 8am AST). The drought depiction at St. Thomas remains unchanged this week at D2(L).

As this is early in the dry season for the northeastern Caribbean basin, there are no compelling reasons to change the drought depictions this week at any of the Islands.

Pacific

Given antecedent conditions, decent snowpack leading up to this week, and the time of year, no changes are warranted in Alaska. Alaska remains drought-free.

An area of low pressure (known as a Kona low) brought heavy rainfall to portions of the eastern Hawaiian Islands at the start of this week, leading to broad improvements to the drought depiction in Maui and the Big Island.

During this past drought week (Wed, Jan 10 – Tue, Jan 16, 2024) over the South Pacific, a surface trough and associated area of wind convergence located south and west of American Samoa brought periods of heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms to the islands/atolls. North of the equator, a dry trade-wind regime dominated most of the USAPI region, with the more significant rainfall (at least 1-inch) remaining south of about 6 deg N and also over the Republic of Palau. Patchy showers were reported in the vicinity of the Marianas associated with shear lines. Strong storm systems moving over the Northwest Pacific resulted in enhanced pressure gradients and stronger winds for much of the USAPI region late in the drought week. With increasingly dry conditions occurring over much of the region, any periods of strong winds are expected to increase the risk of fire danger.

Satellite-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) from SPoRT IMERG imagery for the past 7-days depict rainfall amounts generally under 0.75-inch over much of the USAPI region. The exceptions included southern Micronesia and the Republic of Palau (generally 2-4 inches). Over the South Pacific, rainfall accumulations ranged from 4-8 inches over the vicinity of American Samoa.

Each of the three reporting sites on American Samoa exceeded the minimum monthly precipitation to meet most water needs (4 inches) during this past week. These stations include Pago Pago (8.06 inches of rain), Siufaga Ridge (6.59 inches), and Toa Ridge (6.00 inches). This is 6-8 times the minimum weekly water threshold of 1 inch, and in the case of Pago Pago twice the monthly minimum of 4 inches. Given such heavy precipitation amounts this week, and a whopping 25 inches in December, Tutuila remains free of any dryness or drought.

The Republic of Palau continues to enjoy drought-free conditions. The Palau International Airport (Airai) received 3.62 inches of rain (1 day missing) this week, and the Koror COOP measured 2.57 inches of rain (1 day missing). Both of these rainfall totals comfortably surpassed the 2-inch weekly minimum water requirement.

Rainfall amounts recorded across the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) this week ranged from 0.22-inch at Guam to 1.00 inch at both Rota and the Saipan ASOS site. Additional rainfall observations include 0.85-inch at Tinian, 0.61-inch at the Saipan International Airport manual gauge, 0.41-inch at Dededo, and 0.36-inch of precipitation at Agat. Despite late gains in rainfall this week at several stations, in which the weekly minimum water requirement of 1 inch was barely met, the CNMI depictions were all degraded to D0(S).

Some of the driest conditions in recent weeks have occurred across the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Ailinglaplap measured the most rain this week, a mere 0.20-inch (1 day missing), followed by Majuro (0.11-inch of rain) and Kwajalein (0.05-inch). Majuro and Kwajalein have now experienced 4 consecutive dry weeks, and their drought designations were accordingly degraded to D0(S). The Majuro reservoir level is near 29.5 million gallons, about 82% of capacity. Kwajalein has reported browning of grass and some vegetation yellowing at this time. Jaluit, Mili, and Wotje all reported zero precipitation this week (1-day missing), and the first two stations have now had 4 consecutive dry weeks triggering degradation of their drought depictions to D0(S). Lack of available data at Utirik precluded analysis this week.

With several exceptions, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) received well under an inch of rain this past drought week. These exceptions included Kapingamarangi (6.25 inches of rain, 1 day missing), Nukuoro (5.92 inches of rain, 1 day missing), Kosrae (2.12 inches, 2 days missing), and Lukunoch (1.34 inches, 2 days missing). With the exception of Lukunoch, each of these stations surpassed their 2-inch weekly minimum rainfall required to meet most water needs. Despite reaching its weekly minimum water requirement of 2 inches, Kosrae’s designation was degraded to D0(S) based on rainfall and satellite information during the past few weeks. For the majority of FSM stations, conditions are rapidly declining and a number of impacts are already being felt. In Pohnpei, 0.20-inch of precipitation (1 day missing) was noted this week, making this the 5th consecutive dry week. Effective January 12th, a State of Emergency was declared by the governor for Pohnpei State for ongoing drought and response efforts. In Kolonia, coastal town and capital of Pohnpei, water shortages were reported at some hotels, hospitals, and restaurants, as well as a significant fire at a local dump site. Pohnpei’s drought designation was degraded from D0(S) to D1(S) this week. At Yap, 0.83-inch of rain (2 days missing) was measured, marking the 8th consecutive dry week. Water shortages are being reported at some of the outer atolls (Ifaluk, Elato, and Lamotrek), where the lack of rain during the past few weeks prevented the refilling of water tanks. Potable water is being shipped to those areas. Yap’s designation was degraded from D1(S) to D2(S) this week. Woleai and Chuuk received 0.35-inch of rain and 0.18-inch of rain this week, respectively (2 days missing), and the last 4-5 weeks have been dry. The drought designations at both stations were degraded to D0(S). Other precipitation totals measured this week included North Fanif (0.29-inch), Ulithi (0.17-inch, 1 day missing), Pingelap (0.12-inch, 1 day missing), and Rumung (0.04-inch, 3 days missing). No analysis was possible this week at Fananu due to missing data.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (January 18-22), a fast moving storm system could bring some snowfall to portions of the Great Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic January 18-20. Surface high pressure behind this system is expected to gradually bring more southerly flow across much of the eastern U.S. as it moves eastward, leading to a moderation of the bitterly cold temperatures east of the Rockies, and some storminess across the south-central U.S., by January 22. A series of storms is also forecast to impact the West Coast over the next five days.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 22-26), favors enhanced chances of above average temperatures across the entirety of the lower 48 states, with the highest chances (greater the 80%) centered over the Great Lakes. Enhanced chances of above average precipitation is also favored across much of the lower 48 states from coast to coast, with the highest chances (greater than 70%) across the south-central U.S. The exception is across the Northern Plains, where below average precipitation is favored.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/16)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/15)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 70 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1229050 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

USDA Sees Record Corn Yield in Friday's Latest Reports

OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday released its January Crop Production, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Dec. 1 Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.

USDA pegged final national average corn yield at a record 177.3 bushels per acre (bpa), well above the range of pre-report expectations. Production was pegged at 15.34 billion bushels (bb).

Soybean yields also climbed to a national average of 50.6 bpa. Production clocked in at 4.17 bb.

DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman sees Friday's U.S. ending stocks estimates as bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat. He sees the world ending stocks estimates as bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and slightly bearish for wheat. As for the Grain Stocks report, Hultman sees it as bearish for corn and wheat, only slightly bearish for soybeans.

CORN

U.S. production for 2023-24 crop was pegged at 15.342 bb, up 108 million bushels (mb) from December numbers. The national corn yield was increased 2.4 bpa to 177.3 bpa, with both production and yield setting records and higher than pre-report analysis had forecast.

Higher production rippled down to higher ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop at 2.162 bb, up 31 mb from the December forecast.

On the demand side, Feed and Residual use came in at 5.675 bb, up 25 mb. Total 2023-24 Food, Seed and Industrial use is pegged at 6.79 bb, up 50 mb. Ethanol use also was increased 50 mb to is forecast at 5.375 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.465 bb, up 75 mb.

Exports for the corn crop are pegged at 2.1 bb, the same as December.

The farmgate price for the 2023-24 crop was dropped 5 cents to $4.80 a bushel.

Quarterly stocks for corn: Looking at usage and storage, corn stocks in all positions on Dec. 1, 2023 totaled 12.2 bb, up 13% from a year ago and the highest in five years. Of total stocks, 7.83 bb were stored on farms, up 16% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 4.34 bb, up 7% from a year ago. Usage for the quarter from September to December 2023 came in at 4.53 bb, compared to 4.21 bb for the same period last year.

Globally, beginning stocks for the 2023-24 new crop were raised .46 million metric tons (mmt) to 300.56 mmt. Production globally was raised 13.66 mmt to 1,235.73 mmt. Global exports were lowered .6 mmt to 200.89 mmt. Global ending stocks for the new crop are forecast at 325.22 mmt, up 10 mmt.

Despite the rise in global production, USDA lowered Brazil's production 2 mmt to 127 mmt. Argentina's production was held pat at 55 mmt.

Ukraine's production was increased held pat at 30.5 mmt and Ukraine's exports also were held at 21 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA raised its forecast for 2023 soybean production to 4.16 bb with a national average yield of 50.6 bpa. But while those estimates are higher than USDA's previous estimates, it's the smallest crop in four years.

USDA also trimmed harvested acreage in its Annual Crop Production report to 82.4 million.

In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA pegged supplies on hand at 3 bb, down 1% from 2022. Stocks stored on-farms totaled 1.45 bb, while off-farm stocks stood at 1.55 bb. Indicated usage for September-November totaled 1.43 bb, 6% lower than the same time period in 2022.

As a result of the supply side changes, USDA's forecast for ending stocks for the 2023-24 season came in at 280 mb, above the range of pre-report expectations. USDA made only one tweak to demand -- a 3 mb cut to the residual.

The largest crop also resulted in a 15 cent drop in the national average farm gate price. It declined to $12.75 per bushel.

Globally, USDA's stocks estimate for the 2023-24 growing year increased by less than 0.5 million metric tons to 114.60 mmt. USDA boosted Argentina production by 2 mmt to 50 mmt, while cutting Brazil's expected output by 4 mmt to 157 mmt.

WHEAT

The agency estimates ending stocks at 648 mb, down from 659 mb from December's report.

Seed demand is pegged at 64 mb, a decrease from 65 mb in December. Feed and residual use is estimated at 120 mb, unchanged from December.

Domestic use was estimated at 1.879 bb, a slight decrease from December's estimate of 1.88 bb. Exports are estimated at 725 mb, unchanged from last month. The farmgate price is estimated at $7.20, down from $7.30 last month.

All wheat stored in all positions on Dec. 1 totaled 1.41 bb, up 8% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 395 million bushels, up 9% from last December.

Off-farm stocks, at 1.02 bb, are up 7% from a year ago. The September to November 2023 indicated use is 357 mb, 23% below the same period a year earlier.

Globally, ending stocks increased to 260.0 mmt from 258.2 mmt in December.

Exports are estimated at 51.0 mmt for Russia and 14.0 mmt for Ukraine, both are slight increases from December.

Production in Australia was estimated at 25.5 mmt, an unchanged from last month. Production in Argentina was estimated at 15.0 mmt, unchanged from December.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

Farmers planted 34.4 million acres to winter wheat this fall, down 6% compared to last year and below the average pre-report estimate of 35.9 ma.

Kansas and Texas, the two largest acreage states, are expected to be down 7% and 8%, respectively. A record-low planted area is expected in Michigan and Utah.

USDA said area seeded to hard red winter wheat is expected to total 24.0 ma, down 5% from 2023. Planted acreage is down from last year across most of the growing region. The largest decreases in planted acreage are estimated in Kansas and Texas, while Montana is estimated to have a modest increase.

Soft red winter wheat area, at 6.86 ma, down 13% from last year. Compared with last year the largest acreage decrease is expected in Michigan, while the largest acreage increase is expected in Pennsylvania.

Farmers planted 3.54 ma to white winter wheat, a 5% decrease from 2023. Seeding was virtually complete in the region by the start of November.

LIVESTOCK

The January WASDE report focused on increased beef and pork production levels in 2024 compared to the December estimate. Beef production is estimated to increase by 120 million pounds during the 2024 marketing year, while pork production is projected to increase 240 million pounds.

Although this is not expected to have a significant impact in overall price levels in the long term, due to larger-than-expected production already factored into both cash and future prices, this will have an impact on the ability to sustain longer-term support in both live cattle and lean hog prices, as well as pork and beef cutout values over the upcoming weeks and months. The increased beef production is stated to be hitting the retail market in both the first and second quarter of 2024, with an estimated 65-million-pound gain in first quarter 2024, while second quarter increased projections are 59 million pounds.

Pork production increases are seen through the year, although the majority of the gains are developing in both the first and second quarter with 100-million-pound increases reported in first quarter, and 105-million-pound increase in the second quarter. This increased production level is expected to be carried over to increased total use, with most of the demand growth needing to develop in domestic markets.

Beef exports in the latest report are expected to fall 60 million pounds in 2024, while pork exports are projected to increase 20 million pounds. This will leave an increase of 2024 total use for beef increasing 225 million pounds from the December report, while total use for pork is projected to increase in 2024 from last months report by 220 million pounds. The impact of this increased production estimate follows the previous reports seen in the hogs and pigs, and cattle on feed reports seen in December, and so far has had little impact on overall futures prices, due to most of this bearish market news already factored into price levels.

This report is a confirmation that the next six months of beef and pork markets will continue to be bogged down with strong production levels, and the search for increased domestic demand growth will be the key to keep markets stable during the first half of 2024. Estimated price levels for live cattle is expected to remain stable, while annual projections for hogs has been reduced by $2 per cwt from the December report.

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2023-24
	Jan	Avg	High	Low	Dec	2022-23
Corn	15,341	15,221	15,330	15,068	15,234	13,715
Soybeans	4,165	4,123	4,162	4,074	4,129	4,270
WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE (million acres) 2024-25
	Jan	Avg	High	Low		2023
All Winter	34.4	35.9	39.4	34.5		36.7
Hard Red	24.0	25.2	27.3	24.0		25.7
Soft Red	6.9	7.1	8.6	6.2		7.4
White	3.5	3.6	3.8	3.4		3.6
QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
	12/1/23	Avg	High	Low	9/1/23	12/1/22
Corn	12,169	12,010	12,380	11,070	1,361	10,821
Soybeans	3,000	2,982	3,039	2,950	268	3,021
Wheat	1,410	1,383	1,459	1,272	1,780	1,312
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24
	Jan	Avg	High	Low	Dec	2022-23
Corn	2,162	2,105	2,253	1,961	2,131	1,361
Soybeans	280	239	270	215	245	268
Wheat	647	658	681	630	659	582
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24
	Jan	Avg	High	Low	Dec
Corn	325.2	313.9	318.0	310.0	315.2
Soybeans	114.6	112.2	115.0	110.0	114.2
Wheat	260.0	258.3	261.1	257.0	258.2