This Week's Drought Summary (5/30)

A front over the Northwest to the Great Basin brought rain and higher-elevation snow to parts of the region, as well as rain and extreme weather to most of the Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley as the front advanced eastward. An additional front from southern Plains to the Great Lakes brought severe weather and thunderstorms from Texas to New York. Meanwhile, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico brought record- to near-record warmth to portions of Texas. Temperatures were above normal across the eastern contiguous U.S., by as much as 10+ degrees F above average from parts of the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast and in parts of Texas. Precipitation was below normal across much of the southern contiguous U.S. and the Northeast, as well as portions of the Northwest and parts along the East Coast. The most widespread improvements were made to portions of the Midwest and in eastern parts of the High Plains and South, as well as Montana and Hawaii, where above-normal precipitation was observed this past week. Dry conditions continued across the western portions of the Southern region, southern High Plains and Southeast, with degradations occurring in parts of the western Plains and Florida Peninsula. Drought and abnormal dryness also expanded or intensified in portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. In Alaska, heavy rainfall resulted in the removal of abnormal dryness from the central interior this week.

Northeast

Precipitation varied across much of the Northeast this week, while precipitation totals were below normal for most of the region during this month-to-date period. The region remains drought free this week, while abnormal dryness was expanded in northern Maine based on precipitation deficits, declining groundwater and soil moisture data. For the week, average temperatures were above normal across the entire region with departures ranging from 2 to 10+ degrees F above normal.

Southeast

Temperatures were above normal across the Southeast, with temperatures ranging up to 10 degrees F above normal in parts of Virginia. Precipitation fell across much of the region this week, with the heaviest amounts of rainfall being observed in northern areas of Alabama and Georgia and parts of eastern and western North Carolina. These areas reported weekly precipitation amounts up to 400% above normal and ranged between 1 to 4 inches of rainfall. Drought reduction and improvement were based on precipitation amounts, short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC short-term blends, and improvements to streamflow and soil moisture data. Based on these short-term indicators, abnormal dryness (D0) was improved in parts of northern Alabama and eastern North Carolina. On the dry side, abnormal dryness was expanded in parts of western Alabama and central South Carolina where little precipitation fell. In the Florida Peninsula, precipitation deficits were 2-4 inches below average over the past month and up to 8 inches below average since the end of February, resulting in the introduction of severe drought (D2) and the expansion of moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness in the area. ¬

South

Dry conditions continued across the western portions of the South this week, while heavy precipitation fell across eastern portions of the region. Most of Arkansas and Tennessee, as well as eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas, received between 1 to 6 inches of rainfall (200% to 800% above normal) this week, resulting in the improvement of moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) in Arkansas while D0 was removed from most of Tennessee. Conversely, conditions continued to deteriorate in parts of eastern Oklahoma, Texas and Mississippi, where precipitation totals were 1 to 4 inches below normal this month. Severe drought (D2) and moderate drought were expanded in parts of eastern Oklahoma, while moderate drought was introduced in southern Texas. Abnormal dryness was also expanded into parts of northern and southern Texas and small portions of eastern Mississippi. Temperatures were 2 to 8 degrees F above normal across much of the region this week, while parts of southern Texas observed temperatures between 8 to 10 degrees F above normal. The expansion and intensification of drought categories were based on short-term SPI/SPEI, reservoir levels, streamflow and soil moisture data.

Midwest

Average temperatures were well above normal across much of the Midwest, while below-normal temperatures were observed in western portions of the region. Temperatures ranged between 6 to 10 degrees F above normal across much of Ohio and in parts of Indiana and Michigan, while northern portions of Minnesota observed temperatures up to 6 degrees F below normal this week. Much of the Midwest also observed above-normal precipitation this week, especially along the western and southern portions of the region where the heaviest amounts totaled between 2 to 8 inches of rainfall and ranged between 1 to 8 inches (300% to 600%) above normal. Above-normal precipitation helped to alleviate longer-term precipitation deficits and improved soil moisture and streamflow impacts, resulting in a 1-category improvement across southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and southern Missouri. Improvements were also made to moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) in northern Minnesota, while abnormal dryness was improved in western Michigan and removed from the eastern Upper Peninsula. Meanwhile, conditions were drier than normal in portions of Michigan and Ohio this week, but recent precipitation amounts were enough to prevent any degradation this week in these areas.

High Plains

Precipitation fell across much of the region this week, which was enough to prevent further degradation but not enough to warrant large improvements. The heaviest rainfall amounts fell across much of North Dakota and along eastern portions of the region, where rainfall totals were up to 600% of normal and ranged between 1 to 4 inches this week. Severe drought (D2) was improved in south-central Kansas, while improvements to moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) were made in northern Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Abnormal dryness was also removed from northern Wyoming and northeast North Dakota due to heavy precipitation and improvement shown in soil moisture and short-term SPI/SPEI indicators this week. Conversely, dry conditions persisted in eastern portions of the High Plains this week. Deteriorating conditions shown in short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow, soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) data justified degradations in Colorado and eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Extreme drought (D3) and severe drought were expanded in eastern Kansas, while moderate drought was introduced into southeast Wyoming where precipitation amounts were 50% of normal over the past month. Abnormal dryness was expanded in parts of Colorado, eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska this week.

West

Much of the West remained as status quo this week, while temperatures were below normal (2 to 10 degrees F below normal) across most of the region. Precipitation fell across northern portions of the West, with the heaviest amounts falling over parts of western Washington and Montana. Above-normal precipitation (up to 3 inches), along with cooler temperatures (up to 10 degrees F below normal), resulted in improvements to extreme drought (D3), severe drought (D2), moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) across parts of Montana. Parts of Southwest Montana missed out on some of the beneficial rains resulting in the expansion of moderate drought in the area. Conditions remained dry in the interior parts of Washington, resulting in expansion of moderate drought and abnormal dryness based on short-term SPI/SPEI data, as well as low soil moisture and streamflow.

Caribbean

There were no changes made in Puerto Rico this week.

The U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) saw heavy precipitation during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (May 22 to 28), rebounding from the prior week’s dry conditions. For all but a couple CoCoRaHS stations saw 1 to over 4 inches of rain this week. For St. Thomas and St. John, USGS data showed well levels rising this week, whereas St. Croix saw well levels stay consistent this week. St. Thomas saw well levels rise from 6.52 feet below the surface to 3.55 feet, this following heavy rain between May. 23-24 of 2.38 to 4.28 inches according to the island’s CoCoRaHs stations. St. John saw between 3.12 to 3.93 inches this week which contributed to almost a 2-foot jump in well levels. Satellite data (VHI) showed no vegetative drought stress in the USVI. Precipitation for the last several months resulted in wet Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at the 1- to 12-month time scales. As a result, on the USDM map, St. John, St. Thomas and St. Croix continued free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Pacific

Rain showers brought above-normal precipitation to parts of interior Alaska, resulting in the removal of abnormal dryness from the central interior.

Conditions were dry across much of Hawaii this week. Improvements to drought and abnormal dryness were made to portions of the Big Island where previous rainfall have improved vegetation and pasture growth. Conversely, conditions continue to degrade on the leeward slopes of Maui and in the interior of the Big Island, resulting in slight degradations. No changes were made on Molokai, Lanai, Oahu or Kauai this week.

Compared to last week, the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (May 22-28) saw drier conditions. Ailinglapalap and Jaluit reported 0.75 and 0.93 inches of rain, following two weeks of good precipitation, remains free of abnormally dry or drought conditions. Majuro reported over 5 inches of rain this week adding to the already high total of 14.41 inches so far this month, thus improving conditions from abnormally dry (D0) conditions to normal conditions. Wet conditions occurred on Wotje, which reported 1.5 inches of rain. Recent precipitation on Wotje improved conditions from short-term severe drought (D2-S) to moderate drought (D1-S). Kwajalein reported 0.69 inches of rain this week, keeping Kwajalein in short-term moderate drought. No depiction was made for Milli and Utirik due to missing data.

Wet conditions continued across the Marshall Islands this week. Ailinglapalap reported 1.89 inches of rain, remaining in abnormally dry conditions (D0). This week, Jaluit received 1.20 inches of rain, remaining free of drought due to the wet conditions in the previous weeks. Majuro reported 2.56 inches of rain this week, following two weeks of good rainfall for a total of 8.21 inches in the past three weeks. Thus, continuing improvements in Majuro to short-term moderate drought conditions (D1-S). Wet conditions occurred on Wotje, which reported 1.5 inches of rain. Despite this recent precipitation, Wotje remains in short- and long-term extreme drought conditions (D3-SL). Kwajalein reported 0.44 inches of rain this week, though five days of observations were missing. Kwajalein remains in short-term moderate drought after receiving less than 2 inches of weekly total rainfall in the past four weeks. No depiction was made for Milli and Utirik due to missing data.

Western Micronesia received precipitation this week with Ulithi seeing almost 4 inches of rain and Yap just over 1.5 inches, slightly elevating conditions and improving short-term exceptional drought (D4-S) to extreme drought (D3-S) at Ulithi and Yap. Conditions remained in short-term severe drought conditions (D2-S) as Woleai had missing data for the week. Central Micronesia had less than 1 inch of rain and. Eastern Micronesia all received enough precipitation to remain in normal conditions, if not wet, conditions. Pohnpei saw 7.61 inches of rain this week.

Wet conditions were observed across American Samoa. This week Pago Pago and Siufaga Ridge reported 1.31 and 1.38 inches of rain respectively, remaining free of drought. Palau saw heavy precipitation with Koror receiving 4.67 inches and Palau IAP receiving 3.15 inches, lifting Palau out of abnormally dry (D0) conditions.

The Mariana Islands saw precipitation fall with Guam (1.38 inches), Rota (1.44 inches), and trace amounts over Saipan (0.09 inches). Guam remained in severe drought (D2-), and Saipan and Rota remained in extreme drought conditions (D3-S).

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (May 28–June 1, 2024), moisture convergence along a frontal boundary and east of a dryline across Texas and Oklahoma will likely generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for episodes of locally heavy rainfall early to mid-week. The threat of heavy rainfall will be highest in Texas Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level shortwave moves over the southern Plains, where the potential exists for storms with rainfall rates approaching 2 inches per hour. The coverage of showers and storms will likely expand north across the central and northern Plains later in the week as an organized frontal system moves into the central U.S. from the Rockies. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Rockies going into late Friday and early Saturday as the cold front intercepts an increasingly humid airmass. In terms of temperatures, the Gulf Coast region will continue to remain hot and humid on Tuesday before some limited relief arrives by midweek as a cold front drops southward. However, the heat and humidity will likely continue across Deep South Texas and South Florida with highs running up to 10 degree above average, and heat indices in the 100-110 degree range, especially for southern Texas. Some triple digit heat is also likely for the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest, but very low humidity here will help keep heat indices in check.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid June 2–6, 2024) favors above-normal precipitation along much of the West Coast, from the southern Plains to the East Coast, and across much of Alaska, with below-normal precipitation across most of the interior West and Hawaii. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii and much of the contiguous U.S., while below-normal temperatures are likely across the state of Alaska and in parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

USDA Crop Progress - Corn 83% Planted, Soybeans 68% Planted as of May 26

OMAHA (DTN) -- Periods of heavy rain across the country slowed corn planting last week, but overall, progress nationwide inched slightly ahead of the five-year average pace, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress on Tuesday. The report is normally released on Mondays but was delayed this week due to Memorial Day.

Soybean planting maintained a steady pace last week, and nationwide, progress remained ahead of the five-year average.

"Active weather continued last week, and heavy rain fell in periods across most of the country outside of the southwestern Plains, where dryness has been a concern for winter wheat," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. "It wasn't a washout all week long, though, so some planting was able to be done anyway."

CORN

-- Planting progress: Corn planting moved ahead 13 percentage points last week, slower than the previous week's 21-percentage-point jump. Nevertheless, planting reached 83% complete nationwide as of Sunday, May 26, 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 82%. This year's progress continues to lag last year by 6 percentage points. "Iowa corn is 88% planted and Illinois is at 80%," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Pennsylvania is lagging at 53% planted, 13 points below average."

-- Crop development: 58% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, 8 points behind last year but equal to the five-year average.

SOYBEANS

-- Planting progress: Soybean planting moved ahead 16 points last week, close to the previous week's pace of 17 percentage points, to reach 68% complete as of Sunday. That was 10 percentage points behind last year's pace of 78% but 5 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 63%. "Illinois' soybean crop is 72% planted, and Iowa is at 73%," Mantini noted.

-- Crop development: 39% of soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, 11 points behind last year's 50% but 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 36%. "North Dakota and South Dakota soybeans are lagging at just 9% and 17% emerged, respectively," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 77% of winter wheat was headed as of Sunday. That was 8 points ahead of 69% at this time last year and 8 points ahead of the five-year average of 69%.

-- Crop condition: 48% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 from 49% the previous week but still up considerably from 34% a year ago. The percentage rated very poor to poor was up 1 point to 19% but still much less than last year's 35% at this time.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Planting progress: 88% of spring wheat was planted as of Sunday, 9 points ahead of 79% last year and 7 points ahead of the five-year average of 81%. "North Dakota's spring wheat is 84% planted, and Minnesota's crop is 96% done," Mantini said.

-- Crop development: 61% of spring wheat has emerged, 11 points ahead of 50% last year and 9 points ahead of the five-year average of 52%.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

More precipitation is in the forecast for much of the country again this week, according to Baranick.

"This week is another week of wet conditions. A system spinning over the Great Lakes and a stalled front in the Southern Plains are keeping showers going early on in the week, and then another system in the Pacific Northwest will send a front through the Plains on Wednesday. That front will pivot to be around the Central Plains and Midwest for the rest of the week. Disturbances near that boundary will cause it to waffle around through the weekend and produce areas of showers and thunderstorms. Despite not having a lot of access to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, areas of heavy rain are forecast between the Rockies and the Mississippi River, with moderate amounts east of there. That continues to be an obstacle for the remaining planting and replanting process. Though some heavy rain may cause flooding in spots, the moisture will be largely helpful for those with seed in the ground, however.

"Rain will fall in some areas of the southwestern Plains, but it is getting to be too late for a lot of wheat down there that is heading into maturity, with some reports of early harvest from the warmer conditions all spring.

"Those in the Southeast are least likely to see additional precipitation this week, which is favorable for continued cotton and other spring planting. Good soil moisture continues down there where they can handle a drier week with no issue."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Planted	83	70	89	82
Corn Emerged	58	40	66	58
Soybeans Planted	68	52	78	63
Soybeans Emerged	39	26	50	36
Winter Wheat Headed	77	69	69	69
Spring Wheat Planted	88	79	79	81
Spring Wheat Emerged	61	43	50	52
Cotton Planted	59	44	56	57
Cotton Squaring	4	NA	3	5
Sorghum Planted	42	32	39	37
Oats Planted	93	87	90	90
Oats Emerged	77	69	72	74
Oats Headed	29	NA	25	23
Barley Planted	88	78	81	86
Barley Emerged	62	48	49	59
Rice Planted	96	92	94	91
Rice Emerged	83	76	81	74

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Winter Wheat	6	13	33	40	8		5	13	33	42	7		16	19	31	29	5
Rice	1	2	17	65	15		-	1	17	69	13		1	4	23	59	13
Oat	4	5	25	58	8		4	6	26	57	7		6	8	30	51	5
Barley	2	5	25	62	6		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA		2	10	39	44	5

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (5/28)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (5/28)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 91 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	346010 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (5/23)

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw widespread improvement in drought-related conditions on the map across areas of the South, Plains, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and the West. In the Plains and Midwest, locally heavy rainfall accumulations (up to 7 inches) were observed in drought-affected areas of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa leading to continued improvements of conditions on the ground (vegetation health, soil moisture, surface water) as well as reductions in the longer-term precipitation deficits. Likewise, above-normal precipitation during the past several months led to removal of areas of drought on the map in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula as well as in southern Wisconsin. In the South, isolated areas of central and west-central Texas saw minor improvements in response to recent rains and improving conditions during the past 30-day period. In the Mid-Atlantic, 1-6-inch accumulations were observed in areas of North Carolina and Virginia this week leading to removal of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0). Out West, some minor improvements were logged in central and northern Arizona where precipitation has been above normal since January 1. In southeastern Montana, recent rains erased Water Year (since October 1) deficits and have improved soil moisture conditions and vegetation health. Across the border in the Bighorn Mountains of north-central Wyoming, areas of Moderate Drought (D1) were removed in response to above-normal snowpack conditions observed in its associated drainage basins. In California, the state’s reservoirs are above normal levels moving into the dry season with the state’s two largest reservoirs (Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville) at 115% and 126% of their historical average for the date (May 21), respectively. In the Southwest, Lake Powell is currently 33% full (58% of typical storage level for the date) and Lake Mead is 35% full (62% of average) with the total Lower Colorado system at 42% full as of May 20 (compared to 37% full at the same time last year), according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. In Arizona, the Salt River Project is reporting the Salt River system reservoirs at 95% full, the Verde River system at 70% full, and the total reservoir system at 92% full (compared to 99% full a year ago). In New Mexico, the state’s largest reservoir along the Rio Grande is currently at 23% full (59% of average). In the Pacific Northwest, Washington’s Franklin D. Roosevelt Lake is at 87% full (176% of average for the date). In terms of degradations on the map this week, the only noteworthy ones were made in areas of South Florida where areas of Moderate Drought (D1) expanded in response to dry conditions during the past 60-day period with reports of various impacts including burn bans, lake levels dropping at Lake Okeechobee, reduced soil moisture, and some minor impact in the recreation sector due to low surface water levels. Overall, looking at the broader drought situation across the conterminous U.S., the total percentage of drought coverage is at its lowest since 2020.

Northeast

On this week’s map, no changes were made and the region remained drought-free. For the week, precipitation was generally light across the region except for isolated areas receiving accumulations ranging from 2 to 4 inches in coastal areas of Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Average temperatures for the week were 2 to 10+ degrees F above normal across most of the region with the greatest departures observed in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Conversely, below-normal temperatures (1 to 4 degrees F below normal) were logged in New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. According to NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), the January 2024-April 2024 period was the 6th wettest (+3.8-inch anomaly) on record for the Northeast Climate Region. In terms of average temperature rankings for the contemporaneous period, the region experienced its 3rd warmest (+6.1 degrees F anomaly) on record.

Southeast

During the past week, moderate to heavy rainfall accumulations were observed across isolated areas of the region, including southern portions of Alabama and Georgia and in the Florida Panhandle with rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 6+ inches. Elsewhere in the region, isolated showers were observed with accumulations ranging from 1 to 3 inches. Average temperatures for the week were generally above normal (2 to 8 degrees F) except for in areas of southern and central Alabama as well as in Georgia and the Carolinas. On the map, this week’s rainfall led to the removal of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) in North Carolina and Virginia, while areas of South Florida saw continued degradation with expansion of areas of Moderate Drought (D1) due to deteriorating drought-related conditions over the past 90-day period. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Lake Okeechobee’s water levels have been dropping since late March; however, current levels are still near normal for the date as compared to long-term averages (based on 1965-2007 averages). According to the USDA (May 19), statewide pasture and range conditions rated good to excellent are as follows: Virginia 63%, North Carolina 87%, South Carolina 82%, Georgia 65%, Alabama 82%, and Florida 42%.

South

Across portions of the region, the active pattern continued with significant rainfall accumulations observed in portions of eastern Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi, where 7-day totals ranged from 2 to 8 inches. Moreover, beneficial rainfall continued to help ease drought-related conditions in areas of Texas and Oklahoma. On the map, isolated rainfall activity this week led to some minor improvements in north-central Oklahoma, while areas of central and west-central Texas saw minor improvements. According to Water for Texas (May 22), statewide reservoirs are currently at 77.3% full with numerous reservoirs in the eastern part of the state near capacity, while many reservoirs in the western half of the state are experiencing below-normal levels. In terms of pasture and range conditions across the region, the USDA (May 19) is reporting statewide pasture and range conditions rated good to excellent as follows: Tennessee 74%, Mississippi 65%, Arkansas 61%, Louisiana 61%, Oklahoma 57%, and Texas 33%. Looking at climatological rankings for the January 2024-April 2024 period, the region experienced its 19th wettest (+2.32-inch anomaly) and the 11th warmest (+3.2 degrees F anomaly) on record, according to NOAA NCEI.

Midwest

On this week’s map, there were reductions in areas of drought across portions of Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Michigan. In Iowa, this week’s heavy rainfall (2 to 6+ inches) combined with improvements in conditions over a broader time scale led to reductions in areas of lingering drought across the state. Similarly, conditions have been trending towards improvement in drought-affected areas of southern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. According to the USDA (May 19), statewide pasture and range conditions rated good to excellent are as follows: Minnesota 61%, Iowa 72%, Missouri 71%, Wisconsin 59%, Illinois 85%, Michigan 83%, Indiana 76%, Kentucky 85%, and Ohio 88%. According to the NOAA NCEI’s climatological rankings for the March-April 2024 period, the Upper Midwest Climate Region observed its 10th wettest (+1.57 anomaly) and 12th warmest (+4.8 deg F anomaly) on record.

High Plains

On this week’s map, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and the eastern Plains of Montana saw improvements in drought-affected areas. In Kansas and Nebraska, moderate to heavy rainfall accumulations (2 to 7+ inches) led to a reduction in areas of drought and provided a boost in soil moisture and streamflow levels. In North Dakota, areas of Moderate Drought (D1) were reduced in response to above-normal precipitation during the past 30-to-90-day period as well as numerous recent field reports coming into the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) system. According to the USDA (May 19), statewide pasture and range conditions rated good to excellent are as follows: North Dakota 68%, South Dakota 83%, Nebraska 56%, and Kansas 42%. According to the latest USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Report (May 19), winter wheat condition was rated 11% very poor, 20% poor, 36% fair, 30% good, and 3% excellent. In terms of NOAA NCEI’s regional climatological rankings, the Great Plains Region observed its 44th wettest (near normal) and 12th warmest (+3.9 degrees F anomaly) January-April period on record.

West

Out West, some minor improvements were made on the map in central and northern Arizona, eastern New Mexico, southern Colorado, southern Nevada, north-central Wyoming, and southeastern and central Montana. Looking at precipitation across the region, the start of the Water Year was not looking good with most of the region experiencing below-normal precipitation levels. However, the period from January 1 to current (May 21) was much more promising with above-normal precipitation observed across much of the region, with the exception of areas of the Pacific Northwest including Washington, northern Idaho, and western and central Montana as well as areas of the Southwest (eastern New Mexico and northwestern Arizona). In terms of snowpack, the Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOTEL network is reporting (May 21) the following region-level (2-digit HUC) snow water equivalent levels (percent of 1991-2020 median): Pacific Northwest 73%, Missouri 100%, California 147%, Great Basin 137%, Upper Colorado 112%, Arkansas-White-Red 140%, Lower Colorado 232%, and Rio Grande 52%. For the week, conditions were very dry across the region except for some isolated, light shower activity in eastern portions of New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana.

Caribbean

On this week’s map, no changes were made in Puerto Rico.

A dry, stable air mass, associated with a high-pressure ridge, dominated the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (May 15-21), interrupting a recent string of wet weeks. A couple CoCoRaHS stations recorded a tenth to a fourth of an inch of rain this week, but most locations received no measurable rain or less than a tenth of an inch. For St. Thomas and St. John, USGS data showed groundwater levels rapidly declining this week, but they were still in the upper third of the recent historical record. Satellite data (VHI) showed no vegetative drought stress in the USVI. Precipitation for the last several months resulted in wet Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at the 1- to 12-month time scales. As a result, on the USDM map, St. John and St. Croix continued free of drought and abnormal dryness. An analysis could not be made for St. Thomas this week due to the lack of sufficient precipitation data.

Pacific

In Alaska, an area of Abnormally Dry (D0) was added in the Central Interior encompassing the greater Fairbanks area and in the flats to the south of the Tanana River where snow-free conditions have prevailed during the past month.

On this week’s map, no changes were made in the Hawaiian Islands. In the Hawaiian Islands, a Kona Low event impacted the island chain last week bringing cooler-than-normal temperatures and heavy rainfall accumulations to Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and the Big Island. The event was the latest Kona Low event in the past 20 years, according to the NWS Honolulu.

Several tropical weather features brought rain to parts of the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (May 15-21). These features included a near-equatorial trough, weak circulations, surface troughs moving in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, and convergence created by surging trade winds. These features generated weekly rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches across southern and eastern parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Republic of Palau, and the Marshall Islands, with as much as 7.55 inches recorded at Kosrae. Meanwhile, a dry trade-wind pattern dominated the Marianas Islands and western parts of the FSM (Yap State), where weekly rainfall totals were less than an inch in the Marianas and less than 2 inches in Yap State. A high-pressure ridge helped inhibit showers over American Samoa, where weekly rainfall totals were just over an inch. A weekly total of one inch of rain is needed to meet most water needs in the Marianas and American Samoa, with 2 inches needed for the rest of the USAPI.

The abundant rain this week added to monthly totals at Pohnpei, Kosrae, Lukunor, Kapingamarangi, and Nukuoro. With a wet week and monthly totals exceeding the 8-inch monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs, no drought or abnormal dryness was present at these locations. A wet week and/or month also kept drought and dryness away from Chuuk, Ailinglaplap, Jaluit, and American Samoa.

It was a wet week at Airai in Palau, but the May monthly total was still dry (below minimum), so abnormal dryness (D0-S) continued. Rain this week and month improved the status at Kwajalein from D1-S (moderate drought) to D0-L (long-term abnormal dryness) and at Wotje from D3-SL (extreme drought) to D2-SL (short- and long-term severe drought). Even though monthly totals at Wotje were below the monthly minimum for the last 7 months, the totals showed improved percentiles based on the historical record. The status at Majuro was changed from D0-S to D0-L to reflect dryness that lingered at the 5-month time scale.

Short- and long-term exceptional drought (D4-SL) continued at Ulithi and Yap. Based on data through this week, if no more rain falls for the rest of this month, Ulithi will have the driest May and April-May, second driest March-May, and third driest January-May in their 41-year historical record. Likewise for Yap, if no more rain falls for the rest of this month, Yap will have the third driest March-May and fourth driest January-May in their 73-year record. With dry conditions continuing, the status at Woleai was worsened from D1-S (short-term moderate drought) to D2-SL (short- and long-term severe drought), mainly reflecting the fourth driest May in a 41-year record (assuming no more rain falls this month).

In the Marianas, satellite observations (VHI) showed areas of stressed vegetation on Guam. Persistent dry conditions prompted the continuation of severe drought (D2-S) on Guam and extreme drought (D3-S) on Saipan and Rota.

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for moderate-to-heavy rainfall accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 inches across areas of the eastern portions of the Southern Plains (Oklahoma), South (northeastern Texas, Arkansas, northern Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky) and the Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) while lesser accumulations (1 to 2.5 inches) are expected in areas of the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and out West in isolated areas of the Northern Rockies, and eastern plains of Montana. Dry conditions are expected across California, the Great Basin, the Southwest, and the southern extent of the Intermountain West. Likewise, much of the Gulf Coast region is expected to experience relatively dry conditions. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10-day Outlook calls for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across much of the South, Southeast, lower Mid-Atlantic, and northern portions of the Northeast. Likewise, above-normal temperatures are expected across most of the western U.S., with the exception of the Far West coastal areas from California to Washington where near-normal temperatures are expected. Conversely, below-normal temperatures are expected in eastern portions of the Central Plains and across much of the Midwest. In terms of precipitation, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across the South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, while below-normal precipitation is expected across most of the western U.S., Northern Plains, and areas of the Upper Midwest.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (5/21)

USDA Crop Progress - Corn 70% Planted, Soybeans 52% Planted as of May 19

OMAHA (DTN) -- Corn planting progress made a big jump last week to nearly catch up to the five-year average, while soybean planting continued slightly ahead of the average pace, USDA NASS said in its latest weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday.

An active weather pattern with more heavy rain and thunderstorms is forecast for much of the Corn Belt this week, which could spell continued planting delays and possible flooding threats for farmers, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Planting progress: Corn planting jumped 21 percentage points last week to reach 70% complete nationwide as of Sunday, May 19. That puts current planting progress at 6 percentage points behind last year's 76% and just 1 point behind the five-year average of 71%. "Iowa corn is 78% planted, Illinois is at 67%, Minnesota is at 81% and Nebraska is 79% planted," noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

-- Crop development: 40% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, 6 points behind last year but 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 39%.

SOYBEANS

-- Planting progress: Soybean planting moved ahead 17 percentage points last week to reach 52% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 9 percentage points behind last year's pace of 61% but 3 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 49%. "Illinois' soybean crop is 58% planted, and Iowa is at 61%," Hultman said.

-- Crop development: 26% of soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, 5 points behind last year's 31% but 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 21%.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 69% of winter wheat was headed as of Sunday. That was 11 points ahead of 58% at this time last year and 12 points ahead of the five-year average of 57%.

-- Crop condition: 49% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 from the previous week but still up considerably from 31% a year ago. The percentage rated very poor to poor held steady at 18%. "The largest weekly declines in good-to-excellent ratings were in Oregon, Illinois, Colorado and Arkansas," Hultman noted.

DTN took a closer look at the top winter-wheat producer Kansas' crop during last week's Wheat Quality Council 2024 Hard Winter Wheat Tour. Read more about the tour's findings here:

SPRING WHEAT

-- Planting progress: 79% of spring wheat was planted as of Sunday, 22 points ahead of 57% last year and 14 points ahead of the five-year average of 65%. "North Dakota's winter wheat is 71% planted, also well above its normal pace," Hultman said.

-- Crop development: 43% of spring wheat has emerged, 16 points ahead of 27% last year and 10 points ahead of the five-year average of 33%.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

An active weather pattern will continue again this week, bringing chances of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Corn Belt, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Another week in spring, another active week," Baranick said. "Multiple systems, disturbances and fronts will combine across the Corn Belt to bring waves of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. And it's hard to be optimistic about it in too many areas. Heavy rain is on the way for a lot of areas that don't need it. Instead, flooding will continue to be a concern over the next week. That makes it hard to go out and plant and gets those with seed in the ground concerned about flood damage instead. In other words, there aren't a lot of folks in the Corn Belt who won't be worried by the incredibly active pattern for this week.

"To go along with the active pattern, temperatures in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies will be colder than normal. Some frosty mornings will be possible, though widespread damage to crops is not anticipated.

"Those in the south are getting a break, though. With the storm track through the Corn Belt, those in Texas through the Gulf Coast and Southeast that are recovering from last week's heavy rain should see some drier conditions throughout the week."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Planted	70	49	76	71
Corn Emerged	40	23	46	39
Soybeans Planted	52	35	61	49
Soybeans Emerged	26	16	31	21
Winter Wheat Headed	69	57	58	57
Spring Wheat Planted	79	61	57	65
Spring Wheat Emerged	43	25	27	33
Cotton Planted	44	33	42	44
Sorghum Planted	32	26	32	30
Oats Planted	87	78	79	82
Oats Emerged	69	59	62	63
Barley Planted	78	64	65	74
Barley Emerged	48	27	28	43
Rice Planted	92	84	88	84
Rice Emerged	76	69	73	63

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Winter Wheat	5	13	33	42	7		6	12	32	42	8		18	22	29	26	5
Rice	-	1	17	69	13		-	1	20	68	11		-	4	23	60	13
Oat	4	6	26	57	7		4	6	27	56	7		5	9	28	53	5