This Week's Drought Summary (6/27)

Much of the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), south of the Great Lakes, received little to no rainfall, and this is on top of several weeks of below normal rainfall leading up to last week. In addition, temperatures have remained hot for many locations. This combination of antecedent dryness, much below normal rainfall, and hot temperatures has resulted in rapidly deteriorating conditions, particularly across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, with large increases in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions. Conversely, southern Texas, the Four Corners region, and the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains experienced several rounds of heavy rainfall. Some locations across southern Texas (associated with Tropical Storm Alberto) and the north-central CONUS received well in excess of 5 inches of rainfall that led to flash and river flooding, as well as improvements to drought conditions. Some localized flooding also occurred in portions of the Four Corners region, associated with a surge of tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto that came ashore in northern Mexico late last week. Across much of the western CONUS, conditions are starting to dry out a bit, particularly in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. In Alaska, moderate drought was introduced in the eastern interior Mainland, where warm and dry weather continues, elevating fire concerns. In Hawaii, trade winds are lacking moisture resulting in below normal rainfall across the islands and the widespread expansion of abnormal dryness. Puerto Rico continues to remain drought-free.

Northeast

Several rounds of hot temperatures along with several weeks of dry weather has led to rapidly deteriorating conditions across the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, warranting the broad expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions. In recent weeks, portions of New York and New England have also experienced some isolated abnormal dryness. Fortunately, these areas received some timely rainfall associated with a slow moving storm system moving eastward from the Great Lakes last week. Several days of moderate rainfall associated with this storm system led to widespread weekly rainfall surpluses, warranting some targeted reduction in coverage of abnormal dryness where short-term (30 to 60 day) rainfall deficits were erased.

Southeast

Throughout most of the Southeast, rainfall has been largely lacking over the past 3 to 4 weeks. Additionally, much of the region has experienced several heat waves over the past month, resulting in rapidly deteriorating conditions leading up to and including last week. Soil moisture, stream flows, and several derived drought indices are worsening by the day. Impacts are widespread, particularly in the agricultural sector, as pastures and rangelands are going dormant or turning brown, increasing livestock concerns as well. Several reports that crop yields are also in danger if the region doesn’t get any meaningful rainfall soon. High evapotranspiration (i.e. the evaporation of moisture from land and vegetation) rates are rapidly drying out soils and vegetation, increasing fire concerns.

South

The passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in northern Mexico resulted in a large influx of moisture into southern Texas, with widespread 5 inch rainfall totals (locally upwards of 8 inches for some locations). This heavy rainfall caused localized flash flooding and resulted in large improvements to soil moisture. However, leading up to last week, southern Texas was experiencing abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions, so despite some large improvements (2-category improvements in some cases), some parts of southern Texas remain abnormally dry given the rainfall deficits leading up to Alberto’s landfall. Heavy rainfall also fell across portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle, with several locations receiving in excess of 5 inches of rain, warranting some targeted 2-category improvements to the drought depiction there as well. Elsewhere in the Southern region, conditions are rapidly deteriorating, as rainfall has been lacking entirely over the past few weeks for many locations. Persistent heat has exacerbated the ongoing dryness, leading to degradations across parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys, western Texas, and northern Oklahoma. Following a very wet May, the last few weeks have been very dry across eastern Texas and this area will need to be monitored in the coming weeks if warmer than normal temperatures persist.

Midwest

Precipitation has mainly been confined to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes due to high pressure dominating the eastern U.S., keeping the storm track farther northward. Due to the northward-shifted storm track, there are stark differences in rainfall totals in the Midwest over the past month, with much of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes experiencing rainfall surpluses, resulting in week after week of improving conditions and leading to widespread flash and river flooding in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Conversely, the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys are rapidly drying out. The persistent high pressure in the East has led to several heat waves across parts of the Corn Belt, resulting in a widespread, rapid deterioration of conditions and warranting a large expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1), particularly across the eastern Corn Belt.

High Plains

The High Plains region experienced a mixture of both deteriorating and improving drought conditions last week, which has predominantly been the case over at least the last month. High pressure over the eastern U.S. and an active storm track across the northern tier of the lower 48 states have been able to funnel moisture northward over the past few weeks, but precipitation has been hit-and-miss from week to week. However, last week was a little different from prior weeks, as some of the moisture from Tropical Storm Alberto was funneled northward into the Four Corners region and then into the Central and Northern Plains. Southeastern South Dakota received in excess of 5 inch rainfall surpluses for the week leading to flooding along the Missouri River and some of its tributaries. Heavy rain also fell across parts of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas last week, associated with the surge of moisture from Alberto, leading to some targeted improvements to the drought depiction in those areas as well. Elsewhere in the High Plains region, targeted degradations are warranted due to antecedent dryness, below normal weekly precipitation, and predominantly above normal temperatures (with the exception of northern Montana and the Dakotas).

West

A surge of moisture from Tropical Storm Alberto led to widespread, localized heavy rainfall across portions of the Four Corners region, leading to localized flash flooding and targeted drought improvements across Arizona, New Mexico, and southeastern Colorado. Conversely, targeted degradations are warranted across parts of the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where warm and dry weather prevailed. Elsewhere in the West, conditions are largely drying out, but the influx of tropical moisture from Alberto has helped to stall the progression of the dryness a bit for many locations.

Caribbean

Antecedent wetness and a week of near and above normal rainfall, despite warmer than average temperatures, warrant a continuation of the drought-free depiction in Puerto Rico.

The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.98 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on June 25 was 7.59 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (about 2.6 ft) since December 18, 2023 when it was 5.01 ft below land surface. This week’s SPI values at all timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, 9- & 12-month) also confirms wet conditions persist on the St. John. A total of 0.35 inch of rainfall was reported on St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen AP) this week. The depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on June 25 was 23.72 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant increase in water level (over 11 ft) since September 29, when it was 35.33 ft below land surface. This week’s SPI values at all timescales also confirms wet conditions on the island. On St. Thomas, three CoCoRaHs observation site locations in the northern and western portions of the island each reported rainfall amounts greater than one inch this week. The depth to water level at Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on June 25 was 4.28 ft below land surface. This is down about 2 ft since 2.03 value on June 7 but about 13 ft above the annual minimum of 17.27 ft set on August 5.

Pacific

Expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and the introduction of moderate drought (D1) in the eastern interior Alaska Mainland are warranted, as several weeks of below normal precipitation and warm temperatures have dried out the biomass. This is increasing fire concerns, as Alaska is in the midst of its fire season.

Following a wet May, the dry season seems to have finally settled in across Hawaii. Trade winds have not had very much moisture associated with them, with most windward slopes have received near to below normal rainfall in recent weeks, leading to stream flows slowly declining. As such, broad expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) is warranted across the islands, along with the introduction of a small area of moderate drought (D1) on the southern tip of the Big Island.

Conditions were dry over American Samoa this week. Pago Pago only received 0.02 inch of rainfall this week, while Toa and Siufaga Ridges reported 0.24 and 0.34 inch of rain, respectively. American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness for the week due to previous wet weeks and months.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, with reported rainfall totals of 3.07 inches at Palau Airport and 2.45 inches at Koror.

Wet conditions continued across the Mariana Islands this week. Drought was removed on Saipan after 3.20 inches of rain fell on the island, improving conditions to short-term abnormal dryness. On Rota, drought conditions were improved to short-term moderate drought after reporting 4.40 inches of rainfall this week, while Guam remained in short-term abnormal dryness after receiving 1.12 inches of rainfall this week.

Wet conditions were observed in Kapingamarangi, Pohnpei, Chuuk and Nukuoro with reported rainfall totals of 1.87, 1.66, 1.60 and 1.31 inches, respectively. These locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week due to previous weeks and months being wet. Wet conditions were also observed across western portions of Micronesia. Yap reported 2.27 inches of rainfall this week, while Ulithi reported 1.93 inches this week. Drought conditions were improved to short-term severe drought on Yap and Ulithi based on recent precipitation, along with reported improvements to vegetation and catchment tanks. Drier conditions were observed on Pingelap, reporting 0.20 inch of rainfall this week, becoming the third consecutive week of below-normal precipitation. Therefore, Pingelap was degraded to short-term abnormal dryness. Depictions were not made for Fananu, Kosrae, Lukunoch or Woleai due to insufficient data.

Rainfall brought heavy rainfall to portions of the Marshall Islands this week. Weekly rainfall totals of 3.12 and 2.60 inches fell on Ailinglapalap and Majuro, respectively. Wet conditions were also observed on Kwajalein, reporting 5.41 inches of rainfall this week and bringing the monthly total to more than 9 inches, while the monthly total during May exceeded 11 inches. Therefore, abnormal dryness was removed from Kwajalein this week. Wotje received 0.86 inch of precipitation this week and remains in short- and long-term severe drought this week. Only 0.06 inch of rainfall was reported on Jaluit this week, making it the third consecutive week of below-normal precipitation. Jaluit was degraded to short-term abnormal dryness this week. No depictions were made for Mili and Utirik due to missing data.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (June 27 - July 1), a couple of storm systems and trailing frontal boundaries are forecast to bring periods of rainfall to portions of the eastern U.S. These storm systems are likely to usher in some cooler than normal air behind them, particularly across the northern tier of the lower 48 states. Temperatures are expected to remain predominantly warmer than normal across the southern tier of the U.S., with excessive heat also possible across the Gulf Coast states.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid July 2 - 6), favors enhanced chances of above average temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the lower 48 states and near to below normal chances across the northern tier states. Near to below normal temperatures are also favored in the Desert Southwest, due to the increased potential for above normal precipitation. Below normal precipitation is favored across parts of California and Nevada, and across the southeastern U.S. Increased above normal precipitation chances are favored elsewhere across the lower 48 states, with the highest chances across portions of the Southwest and Midwest.

USDA Crop Progress - Corn Rated 69% Good to Excellent, Soybeans 67% Good to Excellent as of June 23

OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the northwestern part of the Corn Belt and hot, dry conditions across the southern and Eastern Corn Belt took a toll on crop conditions last week, as ratings for both corn and soybeans fell from levels the previous week, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress on Monday.

CORN

-- Crop development: 97% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year's 98% and 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 96%. Corn silking was pegged at 4%, 1 percentage point ahead of both last year and the five-year average of 3%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 69% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down 3 points from 72% the previous week but still ahead of last year's 50%. Seven percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, up 2 points from 5% the previous week but lower than 15% last year. "Seventy-seven percent of the crop in Iowa is considered good to excellent, Illinois is at 62% and Minnesota is at 65% good to excellent, with South Dakota at 72% good to excellent," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Planting progress: Soybean planting moved ahead 4 points last week to reach 97% complete as of Sunday. That was 2 percentage points behind last year's 99% but 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 95%.

-- Crop development: 90% of soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, 5 points behind last year's 95% but 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 87%. Soybeans blooming were pegged at 8%, equal to last year but 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 6%. "Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi are leading the pack at 48% to 55% blooming," Mantini said.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 67% of soybeans that had emerged were in good-to-excellent condition, down 3 points from 70% the previous week but still well above 51% last year. "The good-to-excellent soybean rating was only 59% in Illinois, still 74% in Iowa and 79% in Nebraska," Mantini said. "Minnesota is at 66%, and South Dakota at 72% good to excellent."

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 97% of winter wheat was headed as of Sunday. That was 1 point ahead of 96% at this time last year and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 95%.

-- Harvest progress: Harvest slowed a little last week, moving ahead 13 percentage points to reach 40% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 19 points ahead of last year's 21% and 15 points ahead of the five-year average pace of 25%. "Kansas winter wheat is 53% harvested, much quicker than usual, while Nebraska is just getting started at 2% harvested," said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. "Illinois is 72% harvested, much further along than its five-year average of 34% for this date."

-- Crop condition: 52% of the crop remaining in fields was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up 3 points from 49% the previous week and still up considerably from 40% a year ago.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Crop development: 18% of spring wheat was headed, 7 percentage points behind last year's 25% but equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 71% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, down 5 points from 76% the previous week. That is still ahead of last year's rating of 50% good to excellent. "The good-to-excellent rating for North Dakota fell 10 percentage points to 72%, while the same rating for South Dakota jumped 10 percentage points to 78%," Hultman noted. "Minnesota had the highest rating of 81%."

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Some crop areas will get some relief later this week from either the wet or hot-and-dry weather they have been experiencing, while other won't, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Last week's heavy rain in the northwestern Corn Belt will probably aggravate crop conditions for the next few weeks," Baranick said. "Meanwhile, hot and dry conditions across the southern and Eastern Corn Belt produced some areas of flash drought as well as into the Delta and Southeast. Some areas will get some relief from the weather, others will see it exacerbate.

"We'll get a different setup from the upper-level pattern this week, with the ridge that was in the East last week now in the West and Plains. That is causing some significant heat there early this week. The ridge will shift to the east for late week and anchor itself into the Southeast by the weekend, likely continuing through next week. Going around the ridge will be several disturbances, moving through every couple of days. The storm track will be more through Canada, but the cold fronts will sag through a lot of the Corn Belt. We have one doing so early this week. We should find another doing so late this week and weekend, and then another for early next week. The good news is that these fronts will be moving instead of being stalled out like they were last week. That should keep showers moving through wet northwestern areas with light to moderate rain, and then getting them into the southern and Eastern Corn Belt instead of allowing the heat to build there. Each system and front is forecast to do this, with varying degrees of rainfall. Expect forecasts to change in that regard, but widespread showers and thunderstorms should be expected.

"But across the Southern Plains through the Southeast, these fronts are less likely to penetrate or produce much in terms of precipitation while temperatures remain high, causing heat stress and for additional areas to be considered for flash drought development. Temperatures across the northern tier will waffle back and forth with the systems moving through, and a shot of cold air could be significant for the Northern Plains this weekend. Frost may be possible in some areas near the border."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Emerged	97	93	98	96
Corn Silking	4	NA	3	3
Soybeans Planted	97	93	99	95
Soybeans Emerged	90	82	95	87
Soybeans Blooming	8	NA	8	6
Winter Wheat Headed	97	94	96	95
Winter Wheat Harvested	40	27	21	25
Spring Wheat Headed	18	4	25	18
Cotton Planted	94	90	93	96
Cotton Squaring	30	22	25	28
Cotton Setting Bolls	8	6	4	5
Sorghum Planted	90	80	82	87
Sorghum Headed	17	15	16	17
Oats Headed	61	50	67	58
Barley Emerged	95	88	97	98
Barley Headed	12	4	17	19
Rice Headed	13	6	10	8

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	2	5	24	55	14		1	4	23	57	15		4	11	35	42	8
Soybeans	2	6	25	56	11		1	4	25	58	12		3	11	35	45	6
Winter Wheat	5	10	33	42	10		6	11	34	40	9		11	17	32	33	7
Spring Wheat	1	3	25	64	7		1	3	20	68	8		3	9	38	48	2
Sorghum	2	4	33	54	7		2	5	35	51	7		2	6	35	50	7
Cotton	5	9	30	51	5		2	11	33	47	7		6	12	33	43	6
Rice	1	1	15	67	16		1	2	14	67	16		1	3	26	56	14
Oat	6	5	22	57	10		6	5	22	57	10		7	10	39	40	4
Barley	1	2	29	65	3		-	1	24	72	3		1	5	48	44	2

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (6/25)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (6/24)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 99 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	45702 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (6/20)

There were big changes in the Drought Monitor depiction of dryness and drought this week compared to last, primarily across the contiguous U.S. east of the Mississippi River. Inundating tropical rains literally washed away the entrenched moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) that had covered southern Florida. The opposite was the case farther north across most of the Eastern States. Rainfall has been generally below-normal across a majority of this region for the past 1 to 2 months, with subnormal rainfall dating back 3 or more months in some areas. Increasingly, above-normal temperatures have accompanied the dryness, which has added to the rate of surface moisture depletion. Temperatures have had the greatest impact on conditions in the climatologically-hotter areas across the South until late this past week, when excessive heat started to engulf the Great Lakes and Northeast. Declining streamflows and dropping soil moisture started to become obviously apparent this past week over large sections of the East, and as a result, there was an expansive increase in new D0 coverage east of the Mississippi River and north of central Florida, with only small spots in Georgia and Maine experiencing any discernable relief. Farther west, although changes were not as expansive, both south-central and north-central portions of the Plains and Rockies also saw significant areas where dry conditions developed or intensified. There were other areas of heavy rain outside southern Florida, but most of it fell on sections of the Upper Midwest that have received consistently above-normal precipitation for at least several weeks, thus bringing no changes to areas of dryness and drought. West of the Mississippi River, limited improvement was introduced in relatively small swaths in northeastern Arkansas, central and western Kansas, southern Nebraska, southwestern Montana, and a few adjacent locales.

Northeast

30- and 60-day precipitation deficits increased notably in most of the region. In areas affected by abnormal dryness last week, only part of northeastern Maine observed enough rain to experience any consequential relief. The dry weather in most of the region last week allowed 30-day totals to climb above 2 inches in most areas along the southern and eastern tiers of the region, with 2 to 4 inch deficits common from southern Pennsylvania southward through much of Maryland and West Virginia. Farther north, amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches below normal were more typical. Meanwhile, 60-day amounts 3 to 6 inches below normal were common from portions of New England and lower New York southward through the eastern and southern tier of the region, in addition to northwestern Pennsylvania, with near-normal totals restricted to a broken pattern of areas from northern West Virginia to northeastern Pennsylvania. On the other hand, 90-day precipitation amounts are generally near- to above-normal, with deficits of around a couple inches limited to parts of eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and West Virginia. Low streamflows at a level indicative of at least abnormal dryness (D0) are reported at many locations across the entire region, with concentrated areas of sharply below-normal streamflows (indicative of D2 or worse) found in parts of central and northern Maryland, south-central and southeastern Pennsylvania, southern and western New Jersey, northwestern New England, northwestern New York, and lower Upstate New York. Both modeled and observed soil moisture is declining, and is indicative of statistically significant dryness in some areas, but it has not dropped as markedly or rapidly as it has in some areas farther south, so the D0 expansion in this region – especially central and northern portions – was a little more measured than in the Southeast region. Still, conditions deteriorated to either D0 or D1 over a vast majority of West Virginia and Maryland, and large portions of adjacent southern Pennsylvania, Delaware, and southern New Jersey as well. Farther north, smaller but still substantial D0 expansion was introduced in parts of western Upstate New York, central and western New England and adjacent lower Upstate New York, portions of the greater New York City area, and northwestern New Jersey and adjacent Pennsylvania. Moderate drought (D1) was introduced in small parts of the region, specifically the Maryland portion of the DelMarVa Peninsula and part of eastern West Virginia.

Southeast

Inundating rains literally washed away dryness and drought across southern Florida, with many locations reporting 1 to 2 feet of rain within a few days last week. The largest amounts – featuring widespread totals over 14 inches – fell on most of Collier, northern Monroe, northwestern and northeastern Miami-Dade, plus western and southeastern Broward Counties. At least 7 inches swamped almost all locations from Lee, central Hendry, and central Palm Beach County southward to the upper Florida Keys. At least 4 inches was recorded every where south of a line from southern reaches of the Tampa metro area to Vero Beach, and 2 or more inches fell on and south of central Levy County, Lake George, and Daytona Beach. All areas of southern Florida were removed from any degree of dryness this week, including parts of Collier, Broward, Palm Beach, and Hendry Counties that had been entrenched in severe drought (D2) – a 3-category improvement. Farther north, most of central Florida has now been assessed as abnormally dry (D0) which was a 2-category improvement for many locations. Across these parts of the Florida Peninsula, moderate or severe drought (D1-D2) is now restricted to portions of Indian River, Brevard, and Osceola Counties that did not receive as much rain as most surrounding areas.

There were also considerable changes farther north, but entirely in the opposite direction. Looking at areas above the central Florida Peninsula, only scattered light rainfall at best was observed, allowing 30- precipitation deficits to appear rather quickly across a large part of the Southeast region this past week. More often than not, above-normal temperatures have increased the degree of surface moisture depletion, but even seasonable temperatures in the Southeast in June will take their toll a more significant evaporative toll than in areas farther north. Unlike the Northeast, a significant part of the region has recorded near or above-normal precipitation for the past 60 days as a whole. This has tempered the expansiveness of D0 development somewhat, but because high temperatures are more of a detrimental factor than in the Northeast region, dryness on 30-day timescales is more impactful in the Southeast than in the Northeast, where a longer period of subnormal precipitation and somewhat greater temperature anomalies are usually necessary to engender the same degree of discernable dryness.

With consequential 30-day rainfall shortages being almost ubiquitous north of central Florida, areas with 60-day deficits were almost uniformly degraded by 1 category this week. As a result, D0 was expanded to cover almost all of Virginia, northern and eastern North Carolina, most of eastern South Carolina, central and part of northwestern Georgia, east-central and southeastern Georgia, the northern Florida Peninsula, and a few swaths across northern Alabama. In addition, short-term dryness has been sufficiently acute to spark D0 conditions even in some areas where 60-day rainfall is slightly above normal, such as central South Carolina, west-central Georgia, part of south-central Georgia, and portions of the southern tier of Alabama.

South

D0 expansion was observed in this region as well, but mostly near and east of the Mississippi River, and not nearly to the extent seen farther north and east. New, relatively small areas of D0 were brought into south-central Tennessee and part of east-central Tennessee, with abnormal dryness expanding from the areas covered last week into somewhat larger parts of north-central Mississippi, and portions of northern and western Arkansas. In contrast, light to moderate rains (up to 1.5 inches) eased brought just enough relief to prompt 1-category improvements in parts of northeastern Arkansas, and scattered moderate rains (1 inch or more) with isolated heavy amounts (up to 3 inches) moistened parts of the northeastern fringes of the D0 region in central Texas, and some patches in eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Meanwhile, growing short-term deficits have begun to quickly reduce surface moisture levels in western Oklahoma east of the Panhandle, so this entire region has been placed in moderate drought (D1). Streamflows declined significantly this past week, with several locations reporting flows more indicative of D2 to D4 conditions if no other parameters were considered, especially over the southern half of this area. Declining streamflows and increasing short-term rainfall deficits prompted new D0 areas in parts of northern and western Arkansas where little or no rain fell last week, and similarly low streamflows were observed in parts of this region as well.

Midwest

Heavy rains fell on the northern and western Great Lakes region, the Upper Mississippi Valley, extreme northern and western Iowa, parts of central and northwestern Missouri, parts of southern Michigan, and scattered spots across northwestern Indiana .and southeastern Ohio. Almost none of these areas, however, were assessed with any degree of dryness last week, so improvements on the Drought Monitor were limited to small parts of northeastern Missouri, the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and a patch in adjacent Wisconsin. Several tenths of an inch of rain, at best, fell on the rest of the region. Across the southern tier of the Midwest Region, conditions the past few weeks have progressed similarly to many locations in the Northeast and Southeast Regions, with persistently below-normal precipitation increasingly aggravated by periodic hot weather (especially late this past week) leading to a relatively quick decline in surface moisture and a simultaneous increase in 30- and 60-day precipitation deficits, all of which became limpid across a large area over the course of the last 7 days. Broad new areas of D0 were introduced across Ohio, Indiana, and (to a lesser extent) Illinois. Michigan, Iowa, and Missouri also saw areas of D0 expansion. Almost all of the new D0 areas are experiencing significantly low 30-day precipitation totals and some degree of 60-day shortfalls as well. The largest 60-day deficits (3 to 6 inches) were reported in parts of northern Illinois, west-central Indiana, southeastern Indiana, scattered patches from eastern Indiana across central and southeastern Ohio, northeastern Ohio, and the central Lower Peninsula or Michigan. Also like other parts of the East, significant 90-day precipitation deficits are sparser, but shortfalls of 2 to locally 5 inches were reported in the eastern Lower Peninsula of Michigan and southeastern Indiana. Farther northwest, antecedent D0 conditions are lingering across central and northeastern Iowa, central Wisconsin, and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. 30- to 90-day precipitation is closer to, or even above normal in these areas, but scattered subnormal streamflows and somewhat below-normal groundwater and root-zone water continue in these areas.

High Plains

Moderate to heavy rains soaked a sizeable part of the High Plains Region last week. Most fell on locations not experiencing antecedent dryness and therefore provided no relief, but several areas that have been entrenched in drought did record enough rainfall to consequentially improve conditions. Heavy rainfall totals of 2 to locally 4 inches were fairly common over a fairly broad swath from northeastern to southwestern Kansas, making this one of the few states to experience more relief than deterioration last week. Patches of 1-catregory improvements were introduced where heavier rains fell, continuing a general trend of decreasing dryness observed since mid-May. At that time, almost one-third of the state was covered by severe drought (D2) or worse. Four weeks later, less than 8 percent of the state is similarly dry. Farther north, heavy rains also affected parts of areas experiencing antecedent dryness in southern Nebraska. Generally 1 to 3 inches of rain eliminated moderate drought (D1) in south-central Nebraska, and whittled away some D0 in some other parts of south-central Nebraska. Moderate to heavy rains also ended D0 conditions in a few small areas in central South Dakota as well. Farther west, however, continued dry and warm weather engendered areas of deterioration in central portions of the Rockies and High Plains, as has been scattered across these areas occasionally for the past several weeks. Burgeoning 60- to 90-day precipitation shortfalls along with acute root-zone moisture and ground water deficits led to a broad expansion of moderate drought (D1) in eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. The dry week compounded by recent heat and increasing short-term precipitation shortfalls also led to some lesser D0 and D1 expansion in other parts of Wyoming and a few areas across Colorado and the central and western portions of South Dakota.

West

Conditions were seasonably dry in this broad region, so in sharp contrast to areas farther east, very few changes were made. But one area of deterioration was in part of New Mexico, based on high wildfire danger and ongoing fires that are threatening dwellings and other structures near the town of Ruidoso. Unusually dry, hot, and windy weather combined with low fuel moisture are abetting favorable conditions for the rapid development and spread of wildfires near and south of Ruidoso, so the D1 through D3 areas in this region were expanded somewhat to the northwest. Meanwhile, improving soil moisture and some recent light to moderate precipitation – especially at higher elevations – prompted improvement from moderate drought (D1) to D0 in southwestern Montana and a small part of adjacent Wyoming.

Caribbean

Moderate to heavy rain fell again fell on significant portions of the Commonwealth. Generally 3.0 to 6.5 inches soaked areas in northwestern Puerto Rico across Moca, San Sebastian, Quebradillas, Lares, Hatillo, and western Uthuado while 1.5 to 3.0 inches were recorded in adjacent areas to the east and south of this region, as far east as western Toa Baja and as far south as Hormigueros. Amounts of 1 to 3 inches were common farther east from eastern Cidra through portions of Caguas, San Lorenzo, and some adjacent locales as well as across portions of northeastern Puerto Rico, mainly parts of Naguabo and Fajardo. Amounts were under an inch elsewhere, with the largest amounts falling near the wetter areas described above. Due to the rainfall pattern of the past several weeks to months, moisture shortages are not a problem for the Commonwealth at this time and likely won’t be in the immediate future.

The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 1.10 inches of rain this week. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on June 18 was 7.07 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant decrease in water level (about 2 ft) since December 18, 2023 when it was 5.01 ft below land surface. This week’s SPI values at all timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, 9- & 12-month) also confirms wet conditions persist on the St. John. Only 0.21 inch of rainfall was reported on St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen AP) this week. The depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on June 18 was 23.19 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a significant increase in water level (nearly 12 ft) since September 29, when it was 35.33 ft below land surface. This week’s SPI values at all timescales also confirms wet conditions on the island. On St. Thomas, a CoCoRaHs observation site in the northern part of the island reported 1.24 inches of rain this week. The depth to water level at Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on June 18 was 3.93 ft below land surface. This is down about 2 ft since 2.03 value on June 7 but about 13 ft above the annual minimum of 17.27 ft set on August 5.

Pacific

Precipitation was unremarkable during the past week. Generally 1.4 to 2.1 inches fell on south-central parts of southeastern Alaska, with up to 0.9 inch reported in the rest of the abnormally dry (D0) area there. Farther north, no precipitation and above-normal temperatures were reported in northeastern Alaska, maintaining elevated wildfire danger. Areas of abnormal dryness did not change from the prior week.

For the second consecutive week, dryness and drought categorizations were unchanged following near to below normal precipitation. Signs of slowly deteriorating conditions will need to be closely monitored over the next few weeks.

Wetter weather occurred over American Samoa this week. Pago Pago received 4.30 inches of rainfall this week, while Toa and Siufaga Ridges reported 4.93 and 4.41 inches of rain, respectively. American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness for the week.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, with reported rainfall totals of 2.55 inches at Palau Airport and 1.79 inch at Koror.

Wet conditions continued across the Mariana Islands this week. Drought was removed on Guam after 3.22 inches of rain fell this week, improving conditions to short-term abnormal dryness. Saipan received 2.21 inches this week, improving conditions to short-term moderate drought. On Rota, conditions improved to short-term severe drought after 2.22 inches of rain fell this week on the island.

Wet conditions were observed in Pohnpei, Chuuk, Lukunoch, Nukuoro, and Kapingamarangi with reported rainfall totals of 5.47, 3.74, 3.54, 3.31, and 2.39 inches, respectively. These locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Wet conditions were also observed across eastern portions of Micronesia, but drought continues on Yap, Ulithi and Woleai this week due to previous weeks and months being dry. Short- and long-term extreme drought continued on Yap and Ulithi this week, while short- and long-term moderate drought continued on Woleai. Drier conditions were observed on Pingelap, reporting 1.12 inches of rainfall this week. Although this location was below the weekly threshold of 2 inches, Pingelap remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to previous weeks and/or months being wet. Data returned on Fananu this week, reporting 2.16 inches of rainfall, while no depiction was made for Kosrae due to insufficient data.

Rainfall varied across much of the Marshall Islands this week. A weekly rainfall totals of 3.56 and 2.44 inches fell on Majuro and Ailinglapalap, respectively, while Jaluit received a rainfall amount less than 2 inches (1.90 inches). These locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Wet conditions were also observed on Kwajalein with 2.26 inches of rainfall this week but remained in short-term abnormal dryness due to previous dry weeks and months. No precipitation was reported on Wotje this week, making it the third consecutive week receiving nearly no precipitation. Therefore, Wotje was degraded to short-term severe drought. No depictions were made for Mili and Utirik due to missing data.

Looking Ahead

In the 24 hours after the valid period for this Drought Monitor ended (8 a.m. EDT Tuesday June 18, 2024), excessive to historically heavy rains fell on the central Oklahoma Panhandle and some adjacent locales in Texas and, to a lesser extent, Kansas. Over 7 inches of rain inundated some sites in the central Oklahoma Panhandle during the 24-hour period. Climatologically, these amounts are expected only once every few hundred years, at most, in this region. During the next five days (June 20-24, 2024), moisture from the first named tropical system in the Atlantic basin this year (Tropical Storm Alberto) is expected to stream into southern Texas, dropping 3 to locally 8 inches of rain from Webb County (north of Laredo) and San Patricio County (north of Corpus Christi) southward into Mexico. An inch or more is possible as far north as Del Rio and East Matagorda Bay. Farther north, heavy to excessive rains of 3 to 6 inches are expected to drench a swath from southeastern South Dakota through much of southern Minnesota and into part of northern Wisconsin – an area frequently affected by heavy rains over the past several weeks – and a smaller area over southwestern Colorado. Amounts exceeding 1.5 inches are forecast from parts of the north-central Great Plains eastward through the upper Mississippi Valley and the northern and western Great Lakes region, with similar amounts expected over much of New England and adjacent eastern New York, part of northeastern Florida and some adjacent areas, and scattered higher elevations in northern New Mexico and western Colorado. In contrast, fairly dry weather – featuring a few tenths of an inch of precipitation at best – is expected in the areas of dryness and drought affecting the Far West, Intermountain West, central and northern Texas, most of Oklahoma, interior portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the mid-Atlantic Piedmont. Other locations across the contiguous United States are forecast to receive near typical amounts for a week in mid-June.

Most of the contiguous states are expected to average warmer than normal for the 5-day period, with all areas north and east of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, the immediate Gulf and South Atlantic Coasts, and Florida forecast to average at least 2 deg. F above normal. Similar anomalies are anticipated in the central and south-central Plains, the northern half of the Rockies, the Intermountain West, and the Far West. Parts of interior California, the northern Great Basin and adjacent northern Intermountain West, south-central Great Plains, and a large swath from the middle Mississippi Valley eastward through the mid-Atlantic and adjacent regions are expected to average 6 to 10 deg. F above normal. Subnormal mean temperatures should be confined to Deep South Texas, much of the Rio Grande Valley, much of the Big Bend, part of the upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the immediate Pacific Coast

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid June 25-29, 2024) favors a continuation of above-normal temperatures over a vast majority of the contiguous states, with the greatest odds (over 80 percent) across much of the Four Corners region, and farther east over most of the Carolinas and Virginia. Enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures are restricted to part of the Pacific Northwest. Somewhat enhanced chances for abnormally high temperatures also cover most of Mainland Alaska while below-normal temperatures are favored in southeastern Alaska and across Hawaii. A large part of the contiguous states also show elevated chances for above-normal precipitation, although in most areas the shift of the odds is modest. There is a 33 to near 50 percent chance of surplus precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, most of the Four Corners region, and from the Plains eastward through the Mississippi and lower Oho Valleys, Great Lakes region, southern Appalachians, Southeast, and Florida. Odds for wetter than normal weather exceed 50 percent in much of Arizona and New Mexico. Neither abnormal wetness nor dryness is favored in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic region, northern Rockies, and Southwest while drier than normal conditions are only favored in the Great Basin and adjacent areas in the northern Intermountain West and California. Meanwhile, there are slightly increased odds for above-normal precipitation over the southeastern two-thirds to three-quarters of Alaska and throughout Hawaii.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (6/18)

USDA Crop Progress - Corn Condition 72% Good to Excellent; Soybeans 93% Planted, 70% Good to Excellent as of June 16

OMAHA (DTN) -- Good-to-excellent condition ratings for both corn and soybeans dropped 2 percentage points last week, but ratings for both crops remain well above last year, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress on Monday.

Development of both crops continues to run slightly ahead of normal, and the U.S. winter wheat harvest is also running ahead of its average pace, NASS said.

CORN

-- Crop development: 93% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, 2 points behind last year's 95% but 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 92%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 72% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down 2 points from 74% the previous week but well ahead of last year's 55%. Five percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week and lower than 12% last year. "Seventy-four percent of the corn crop in Iowa is considered good to excellent, Illinois is at 65% and Minnesota is at 71% good to excellent," noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

SOYBEANS

-- Planting progress: Soybean planting moved ahead 6 points last week to reach 93% complete as of Sunday. That was 4 percentage points behind last year's 97% but 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 91%.

-- Crop development: 82% of soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, 8 points behind last year's 90% but 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 79%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 70% of soybeans that had emerged were in good-to-excellent condition, down 2 points from 72% the previous week but well above 54% last year. "The good-to-excellent soybean rating was 61% in Illinois, 74% in Iowa and 79% in Nebraska," Hultman said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 94% of winter wheat was headed as of Sunday. That was 1 point ahead of 93% at this time last year and 3 points ahead of the five-year average of 91%.

-- Harvest progress: Harvest picked up speed last week, moving ahead 15 percentage points to reach 27% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 14 points ahead of last year's 13% and 13 points ahead of the five-year average pace of 14%. "As usual, the winter wheat harvest is making the quickest progress in Southern states, with Texas 63% harvested, Oklahoma 80% harvested and Arkansas at 68%," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Kansas is now at 28% harvested."

-- Crop condition: 49% of the crop remaining in fields was rated in good-to-excellent condition, up 2 points from 47% the previous week and still up considerably from 38% a year ago.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Crop development: 95% of spring wheat had emerged, 1 point behind 96% last year but 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 93%. Four percent of the crop was headed, 4 points behind 8% last year and 3 points behind the five-year average of 7%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 76% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, up 4 points from 72% the previous week. That is still ahead of last year's rating of 51% good to excellent. "Eighty-two percent of spring wheat in North Dakota is rated in good-to-excellent condition, and 83% of the Minnesota crop is rated good to excellent," Mantini said.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

The Western Corn Belt and Upper Midwest will see continued chances of rain and severe weather this week, while the Eastern Corn Belt will be blasted by heat, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"It's going to be a stagnant weather pattern this week," Baranick said. "A front has parked itself from about Nebraska to Wisconsin, and it will waffle around that region and a little north throughout the week. Daily showers and thunderstorms and some severe weather are expected. But widespread heavy amounts of rain are going to fall across there and points a bit farther north throughout the week.

"South of the front, it will be very hot and humid, and there are heat advisories and warnings posted for most of the Eastern Corn Belt. Daytime highs will be consistently in the 90s Fahrenheit and approaching 100 degrees F in some spots just about every day. There are some cloud cover and pop-up showers that will occur in the heat, putting a damper on high temperatures at times and bringing a little soil moisture around, but they won't have a very large effect on the heat stress that will be piling up. The good news is that most areas here have good soil moisture from a very active spring. But that tends to run out, and we'll need more rain quickly.

"The front will finally make a move south and especially east this weekend, and we'll bring in some milder air and chances for showers across the Corn Belt, maybe down into the Delta and Southeast by early next week as well."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Emerged	93	85	95	92
Soybeans Planted	93	87	97	91
Soybeans Emerged	82	70	90	79
Winter Wheat Headed	94	89	93	91
Winter Wheat Harvested	27	12	13	14
Spring Wheat Emerged	95	87	96	93
Spring Wheat Headed	4	NA	8	7
Cotton Planted	90	80	87	91
Cotton Squaring	22	14	17	18
Cotton Setting Bolls	6	NA	2	3
Sorghum Planted	80	65	70	75
Sorghum Headed	15	NA	14	15
Oats Emerged	96	92	97	96
Oats Headed	50	41	54	45
Barley Emerged	88	83	93	94
Barley Headed	4	NA	6	8
Rice Emerged	97	93	98	96
Rice Headed	6	NA	5	4

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	1	4	23	57	15		1	4	21	58	16		3	9	33	47	8
Soybeans	1	4	25	58	12		1	3	24	60	12		3	9	34	47	7
Winter Wheat	6	11	34	40	9		6	13	34	39	8		11	18	33	32	6
Spring Wheat	1	3	20	68	8		-	3	25	67	5		2	10	37	48	3
Sorghum	2	5	35	51	7		2	5	37	49	7		2	5	33	53	7
Cotton	2	11	33	47	7		2	6	36	49	7		7	13	33	41	6
Rice	1	2	14	67	16		1	2	15	68	14		-	1	29	56	14
Oat	6	5	22	57	10		6	4	20	60	10		7	9	39	42	3
Barley	-	1	24	72	3		-	1	23	74	2		1	7	42	48	2