September Ag Prices Received Index Down 5.6 Percent, Prices Paid Index Down 0.2 Percent

September Prices Received Index Down 5.6 Percent  

The September Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 120.8, decreased 5.6 percent from August and 0.9 percent from September 2023. At 99.0, the Crop Production Index was down 1.1 percent from last month and 13 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 146.3, decreased 7.5 percent from August, but increased 11 percent from September last year. Producers received lower prices during September for market eggs, cattle, hogs, and lettuce but higher prices for milk, corn, broilers, and turkeys. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In September, there was decreased monthly movement for cattle, wheat, cotton, and peaches and increased marketing of soybeans, corn, dry beans, and calves. 

September Prices Paid Index Down 0.2 Percent  

The September Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 137.9, is down 0.2 percent from August 2024 and 1.6 percent from September 2023. Lower prices in September for feeder cattle, LP gas, diesel, and hay & forages more than offset higher prices for feeder pigs, other services,  potash & phosphate, and feed grains. 

This Week's Drought Summary (10/31)

The dry pattern that has been impacting much of the country has continued into this current period. The wettest areas were along the coast in the Pacific Northwest, with some locations recording over 2 inches of rain for the week. Other areas receiving some precipitation were in the Four Corners region, the Midwest and parts of the South, but many of these totals were minimal and did little to impact the drought conditions. The Southern Plains and South were the warmest regions, with departures of 10-12 degrees above normal this week. Almost the entire country was warmer than normal, with only areas of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest having near to slightly below normal temperatures. As the month is ending, many locations will be at or near record dryness across the country. For the Lower 48 states, there has not been this much drought shown on the U.S. Drought Monitor since December 2022. Areas of the Southeast that were impacted by significant precipitation associated with landfalling hurricanes have dried out rapidly, with some locations recording zero precipitation since the hurricanes. Some precipitation development at the end of the current period could help ease conditions into the next week, but that will be determined on the next map.

Northeast

Temperatures were near to slightly above normal for the week in the region with only minimal precipitation recorded over portions of northeast New York and northern areas of Vermont and New Hampshire. Abnormally dry conditions expanded over New York, northern Vermont and New Hampshire and into southwest Maine as well as in southern Connecticut. Moderate drought expanded over southern New York and Long Island and across more of northern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. Severe drought expanded to include all of southern New Jersey and Delaware, and a new area of severe drought emerged in Massachusetts. Severe drought also expanded in southwest Pennsylvania. Moderate drought expanded in northern Virginia and eastern Maryland, while abnormally dry conditions emerged in most of the rest of Virginia.

Southeast

Isolated and light rain was recorded over portions of the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee but many of these events were minimal and the region remained dry, on the cusp of widespread flash drought development. Along with the dryness, temperatures were warmer than normal over the region with most areas 2-6 degrees above normal and isolated areas of greater departures. This week brought widespread additions of abnormally dry conditions, and many areas have been historically dry since the tremendous rains impacted the region with the landfalling hurricanes. Moderate drought expanded over the coast of South Carolina and moderate drought expanded over southern and eastern Alabama. Severe drought expanded to include more of southwest and northern Alabama. Moderate drought emerged in the panhandle of Florida with abnormally dry conditions now covering much of the northern portion of the state.

South

Temperatures were well above normal over the region with areas of north Texas and much of eastern Oklahoma 12-16 degrees above normal for the week. Some very light rains were reported in central Arkansas, but much of the region was dry this week. With the fall warmth and dryness impacting the region, drought intensified and expanded. In Oklahoma, the north-central and eastern portions of the state saw severe and extreme drought expand, with some moderate drought expanding in the east. Widespread degradation took place over much of northern and eastern Texas and into the southern portions of the state, where almost every drought category intensified, most now in severe drought or worse. Moderate and severe drought expanded over portions of West Texas as well. In Arkansas, most of the western portions of the state had degradation this week, now in severe to extreme drought. Moderate drought expanded over southeast Arkansas. Severe drought emerged in northwest and southwest Louisiana, and moderate drought expanded over more of the east and southeastern areas. In Mississippi, moderate and severe drought expanded in the southern half of the state and in a small area of the northeast part of the state. In Tennessee, the short-term dryness allowed slight expansion of the severe and moderate drought in the southern portions of the state. Abnormally dry conditions filled in the rest of northern Tennessee.

Midwest

Temperatures were near normal in the eastern portion of the region while the southern and western areas were 4-8 degrees above normal for the week. Some rain fell from northern Missouri into southeast Iowa and northern Illinois, but this rain did little to improve the drought that is established over the area. The region saw widespread degradation this week with moderate and severe drought expanding over lower Michigan, and severe drought expanding over northwest Ohio, northern Indiana, and northern Illinois. Moderate drought pushed south in Illinois and Indiana while abnormally dry conditions expanded across almost all of Kentucky. In southwest Missouri, severe and extreme drought expanded along with a push of moderate drought to the east. Severe drought also expanded along with moderate drought in western and northwest Missouri. In Iowa, moderate and severe drought expanded in the west and eastern portions of the state. In Wisconsin, moderate drought expanded in the central portions of the state and severe drought expanded in the northwest. Moderate drought expanded in northern Minnesota and severe drought expanded in both the southwest and southeast areas of the state.

High Plains

Dryness again dominated the region with only areas of far southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas, northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota recording any significant precipitation. Coupled with the dryness, temperatures have been unseasonably warm for the region with most all areas 4-8 degrees above normal for the week. Drought expanded and intensified across the region this week with severe and extreme drought expanding over western North Dakota, and moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanding over the southeast. Severe and extreme drought expanded over much of western and southern South Dakota and also over western and northern Nebraska. Eastern Nebraska saw both moderate and severe drought expand. In Kansas, severe and extreme drought expanded over the southeast while severe drought expanded over the northeast and western portions of the state. Moderate drought also expanded in western Kansas. In northeast Colorado, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded, with both moderate and severe drought expanding in southeast Colorado. Southeast Wyoming saw expansion of moderate, severe, and extreme drought while eastern Montana had severe and extreme drought expand to the west.

West

The West was the one region that had substantial precipitation during the week, with rains in the areas of central to northeast Arizona, western Colorado, central to western Wyoming, central Utah, southern Oregon into Idaho and along the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest. Minimal improvements were made to the abnormally dry conditions along the Oregon coast. Moderate drought improved in northern California and northern Nevada as well as into southern Oregon and Idaho. Abnormally dry conditions disappeared from the rest of southwest Colorado. Severe and extreme drought expanded in northern Colorado into southern Wyoming and severe drought expanded in western Wyoming.

Caribbean

No changes were made in Puerto Rico this week.

A heat wave continued across the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (October 23-29), and unstable air associated with a tropical wave and nearby frontal boundary generated showers across the islands. Weekly rainfall totals exceeded an inch in some areas, although other parts of the islands received less than a fourth of an inch. St. Croix was mostly dry this week and satellite observations showed spotty areas of stressed vegetation, but no widespread drought stress was evident on the satellite data, a couple stations recorded around an inch of rain, and groundwater levels held steady. Groundwater levels declined slightly this week on St. John, but were still in the upper third of the recent historical record, and rainfall reports ranged from 0.62 to 1.48 inches. With the last several months having above-normal rainfall, both St. Croix and St. John continued free of drought and abnormal dryness. St. Thomas had some good rains, with heavier amounts ranging from 1.63 to over 2 inches, and groundwater levels increased. The recent rains were enough to end the abnormal dryness on St. Thomas, so all three islands were free of drought and abnormal dryness this week.

Pacific

No changes were made in Alaska this week.

In Hawaii, moderate drought was improved on the Big Island. On Oahu, heavy rainfall boosted streamflow on the Koolau slopes, where moderate drought improved and some abnormally dry conditions disappeared. In Maui, the windward sides saw moderate drought shrink, and on Lanai and Kahoolawe, severe drought expanded.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (October 23-29), a couple tropical disturbances combined with a monsoon trough to bring widespread heavy rain to the Marianas and western parts of Micronesia. Eastern parts of Micronesia were entertained by a dance between ridges, which brought drier weather, and troughs, which brought wetter weather. Meanwhile, south of the equator, in American Samoa, an active trough brought several inches of rain to Tutuila this week, ending a string of several dry weeks. Pago Pago recorded 3.27 inches of rain this week, with 2.38 and 4.46 inches falling at the automated stations at Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge, respectively. Pago Pago has 4.17 inches for the month, which is above the monthly minimum needed for most water needs. Consequently, the D0-S in Tutuila was ended.

The tropical disturbances eventually developed into Tropical Depression Kong-rey over the Marianas, bringing 5 to nearly 15 inches of rain this week to Rota and Saipan, causing flash flooding on Saipan. Guam was further south and received less rain, only about 2 inches. But this has been a wet month for the Marianas, so Guam, Saipan, and Rota continue at D-Nothing (no drought or abnormal dryness).

D-Nothing continued in the Republic of Palau. Over 2 inches of rain was recorded this week at Koror and Airai, and the month has been wet.

In the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), western parts (Yap State) have been wet, with weekly rainfall totals ranging from 2.38 inches at Ulithi to 10.22 inches at Woleai (a minimum of 2 inches is needed to meet most water needs). Eastern and southern parts have been dry, with weekly totals less than an inch. Most areas were wet last week. Monthly rainfall totals have generally been above the 8-inch minimum needed to meet most water needs, except in eastern (Kosrae State) and southern parts of the FSM. Pingelap had 2.72 inches of rain last week but recorded only 0.21 inch this week with 3.78 inches for the month so far, causing D0-S (Abnormal Dryness) to continue. At Kapingamarangi, a tenth of an inch (0.09) of rain fell this week, marking the sixth consecutive dry week, with only 2.05 inches for the month so far. If no more rain falls this month, October 2024 will rank as the sixth driest October in 35 years of data, which translates to a percentile of 0.17, which is moderate drought. Consequently, the status was worsened from D0-S to D1-S (Moderate Drought). Fananu had no data, so no analysis could be made, and D-Nothing continued at the rest of the FSM locations.

In the Marshall Islands, troughs gave rain this week to Majuro (4.56 inches) and Wotje (2.15 inches), while the other stations were dry (less than an inch). But last week was wet, and most locations (except Jaluit) had monthly totals more than the monthly minimum needed to meet most water needs, so D-Nothing continued. An analysis could not be made at Mili and Utirik due to no data.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, it is anticipated that the dry pattern will break over much of the Plains, Midwest and into the South, with widespread precipitation from north Texas to Wisconsin. The Western portions of the country will also be in a more active pattern, with the coastal areas, the Great Basin, and part of the Rocky Mountains seeing some precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal out in front of the precipitation, with the eastern Midwest, South, and East all anticipated to be warmer than normal, including departures of 13-15 degrees above normal in the Ohio River basin. Cooler- than-normal temperatures will settle in over the West, with departures of 10-13 degrees below normal over much of Nevada.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the best chance for above-normal temperatures is over the East while much of the West has the best chance for below-normal temperatures centered on the Southwest. The greatest chance for above-normal precipitation is over the southern Rocky Mountains with above normal chances in the Plains and into the Midwest while the greatest chance for below-normal precipitation is over northern California and much of the West.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/29)

USDA Crop Progress - Corn 81% Harvested, Soybeans 89% Harvested as of Oct. 27

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. farmers continued to take advantage of favorable harvest weather conditions last week to bring in the corn and soybean crops ahead of schedule, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

But the speedy progress of harvest could slow somewhat for some farmers this week, as a more active weather pattern is forecast to bring precipitation to parts of the country, according to DTN forecasts.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest moved ahead 16 percentage points nationally last week to reach 81% complete as of Sunday. That was 13 points ahead of last year's 68% and 17 points ahead of the five-year average of 52%. Ohio's harvest was the furthest ahead of normal at 72% complete, 34 percentage points ahead of the state's five-year average of 38%. That was followed by Wisconsin at 65% complete, 30 percentage points ahead of the state's five-year average of 35%. Iowa's harvest, at 84% complete, was 21 points ahead of the state's average of 63%. Indiana's harvest was 19 points ahead of the state's average; Illinois' harvest was 14 points ahead of average; and Nebraska's harvest was 12 points ahead of average.

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest continued to slow last week, moving ahead 8 percentage points to reach 89% complete as of Sunday. That was still 7 points ahead of last year's 82% and 11 points ahead of the five-year average of 78%. Michigan's soybean harvest was the furthest ahead of normal at 91% complete, 31 points ahead of the state's average of 60%. That was followed by Wisconsin, which was 96% complete, 23 points ahead of the state's average of 73%. Missouri, at 75% complete, was 18 points ahead of average. Indiana was 13 points ahead of average. Illinois and Iowa were both 10 points ahead of average. Nebraska, at 94% complete, was 3 points ahead of the state's five-year average of 91%.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting moved ahead another 7 points to reach 80% complete nationwide as of Sunday, 2 points behind last year's 82% and 4 points behind the five-year average of 84%. Oklahoma remained the furthest behind normal with 59% of its crop planted as of Sunday, 22 percentage points behind the state's five-year average of 81%. Top winter-wheat producer Kansas' crop was 87% planted, 1 point behind the state's average of 88%. Texas was 5 points behind its average, South Dakota trailed its five-year average by 3 points and Nebraska was equal to its average. Washington finished planting its winter wheat crop, 4 points ahead of its five-year average of 96%.

-- Crop development: An estimated 56% of winter wheat had emerged as of Sunday, 5 points behind both last year and the five-year average of 61%.

-- Crop condition: In its first condition rating of the 2025 winter wheat crop, USDA NASS estimated that 38% of the crop that had emerged was in good to excellent condition. That trailed last year's rating of 47% good to excellent by 9 percentage points. Twenty-three percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor compared to 18% at the same time last year.

**

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

After weeks of mostly dry weather, a more active weather pattern could bring some harvest-disrupting precipitation to the central U.S. this coming week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"This week is finally going to be more active across the middle of the country," Baranick said. "That's something we haven't really seen during the harvest season so far. The setup will pit a trough in the West and a ridge in the East. In between is where systems like to develop and move, and we'll have a few of them over the course of the next seven days. I count three. That should mean adding more moisture into soils for those that are done with harvest, but disrupting those with work yet to do. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall from central Texas up through Wisconsin, but there could be pockets of heavy rain elsewhere as well. Drought should be decreased in many areas, and we may see a small boost to river levels.

"However, the forecast for hard red winter wheat areas is lacking. Some areas from west Texas through eastern Kansas will get some needed rain, but those in western Kansas and the northern panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas will probably go without much. Temperatures will be swinging around quite a bit too, at least in the middle of the country with those systems moving through. Colder air in the West will leak into the Plains on occasion, and that could mean a mix with some snow for those across the Northern Plains and possibly the Northwoods of Wisconsin and Michigan."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Harvested	81	65	68	64
Soybeans Harvested	89	81	82	78
Winter Wheat Planted	80	73	82	84
Winter Wheat Emerged	56	46	61	61
Cotton Bolls Opening	97	94	92	94
Cotton Harvested	52	44	47	46
Sorghum Harvested	75	64	74	73

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Winter Wheat	7	16	39	33	5		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA		7	11	35	39	8
Cotton	15	21	31	29	4		15	18	30	31	6		23	19	29	24	5

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/28)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 41 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2399983 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/24)

Precipitation fell across much of the U.S. over the past week, while heavier amounts were observed over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest. Portions of New Mexico, Utah, Colorado and Washington reported rainfall totals between 3 to 5 inches above normal, while precipitation totals were below normal across much of the eastern U.S. Warmer-than-normal temperatures were observed across much of the U.S. this week. Temperature departures ranging between 6 to 15 degrees F above normal were observed from the northern Rockies to northern portions of the Midwest. Cooler-than-normal temperatures were observed from eastern portions of Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts of the Great Bains and Southwest. The Southeast observed temperatures between 3 to 9 degrees F below normal this week.

Northeast

Precipitation fell across much of the Northeast this week, but amounts were mostly below normal. Below-normal precipitation, along with above-normal temperatures, resulted in the expansion of drought and abnormal dryness in the region this week. Moderate to severe drought were expanded in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware, while moderate drought was expanded in parts of New England. For the week, average temperatures were near or above normal across most of the region with departures ranging from 1 to 6 degrees F above normal.

Southeast

Cooler temperatures dominated most of the Southeast this week, with departures ranging between 3 to 9 degrees F below normal, while most of the region received little to no precipitation during the week. Drought expansion and degradations were based on precipitation amounts, short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC short-term blends, and improvements to streamflow and soil moisture data. Based on these short-term indicators, drought and abnormal dryness were expanded and/or intensified across portions of the region. Drought conditions were expanded in Alabama, while moderate drought was introduced in parts of coastal South Carolina. Coastal areas of Virginia, as well as northeast North Carolina and the Florida Panhandle saw expansion of abnormal dryness this week. ¬

South

Dry conditions continued across much of the South this week, while precipitation fell just along the western borders of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Temperatures were mixed across the region with the eastern areas experiencing below-normal temperatures, with departures of 1 to 9 degrees F below normal, and above-normal temperatures were observed across western portions of the South, with departures of 1 to 6 degrees F above normal. Moderate to severe drought were expanded across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and northern Arkansas, while moderate to severe drought were expanded in Louisiana and Mississippi. The expansion and intensification of drought categories were based on short-term SPI/SPEI, reservoir levels, streamflow and soil moisture data.

Midwest

Temperatures varied across the Midwest with above-normal temperatures being observed in the northern portions of the region, while southern portions experienced below-normal temperatures this week. Precipitation fell over portions of the Midwest but rainfall totals were below normal for the region. Above-normal temperatures, along with below-normal precipitation, resulted in the expansion of drought and abnormal dryness across much of the region. Moderate to severe drought was expanded across much of Minnesota, Missouri and Illinois, and in parts of Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and Indiana. Abnormal dryness was expanded in southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, and western Kentucky this week. Conversely, heavier rain fell over parts of northeast Ohio, allowing for a small improvement to abnormal dryness in that area.

High Plains

Warm temperature dominated the High Plains this week with departures ranging up to 12 degrees F above normal, especially in the northern portions of the region. Precipitation fell across much of the region this week, but amounts were not large enough to prevent further degradations across much of the region. Extreme drought was introduced in northeast Nebraska, while extreme drought was expanded in western South Dakota, eastern Wyoming, and northwestern Nebraska. Severe and moderate drought were expanded in portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, while severe drought was expanded in southern Wyoming. Abnormal dryness was expanded in parts of North Dakota. The heaviest rains fell across Colorado, reporting rainfall totals up to 600% of normal, resulting in improvements of moderate to severe drought and abnormal dryness in western and southern portions of the state this week.

West

Average temperatures were mostly above normal across the West this week, while much of the Great Basin, New Mexico and southern California experienced below-normal temperatures, with departures of 1 to 6 degrees F below normal. Conversely, Montana observed temperatures ranging between 3 to 12 degrees F above normal this week. Precipitation fell across much of the region but amounts were mostly normal to below-normal for the region. Heavier rainfall totals, up to 600% above normal, were observed over parts of northwest Washington, Utah and New Mexico. Daily maximum precipitation records were set in parts of Utah and New Mexico. Above-normal precipitation (up to 8 inches above normal), along with cooler temperatures, allowed drought and abnormal dryness improvements in New Mexico, while abnormal dryness was improved in Arizona, Utah, and Washington. Warmer-temperatures and below-normal precipitation resulted in expansion of moderate to extreme drought and abnormal dryness in eastern Montana based on SPI/SPEI data, as well as low soil moisture and streamflow values.

Caribbean

Conditions remained warm and dry across much of Puerto Rico this week. Abnormal dryness was added along the northwest and southwest coastlines of the island based on rainfall deficits, crop stress data, and depleting soil moisture values.

Over the last 2 months, drier-than-normal conditions have developed across the U.S. Virgin Islands, during what is typically the wettest time of year. However, months of wet weather preceding the dryness have muted impacts until recently. On St. John and St. Croix, precipitation deficits, vegetation stress, and groundwater shortages have not yet risen to the level of short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S). On St. Thomas, however, D0-S has been introduced due to the short-term Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values falling below -1, as well as depth to water at the U.S Geological Survey’s Grade School 3 well topping 10 feet for the first time since April 20. Depth to water for that well has increased more than 8.6 feet since August 15. Additionally, farmers on St. Thomas are reporting recent increases in vegetation stress due to hot, windy weather, as well as soil cracks starting to form. In neighboring Puerto Rico, San Juan reported a maximum temperature of 90°F or higher each day from September 9 – October 22, which for that location is a record-breaking span of 44 consecutive days.

Pacific

There were no changes made in Alaska this week.

This week, conditions remained generally dry in Hawaii, especially over the east half of the state. Low rainfall and low streamflow levels resulted in a 1-category degradation over the Big Island, while moderate drought was expanded on Maui and abnormal dryness was expanded on Molokai. Heavier rainfall amounts were observed in localized areas, resulting in small improvements on Kauai and Oahu this week.

An active pattern has been in place across Micronesia, leading to the formation of Tropical Storm Trami west of Guam, as well as a disturbance (formally known as Invest 98W) near Chuuk. In the Marianas, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches were commonly observed during the drought-monitoring period ending October 22. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches were noted across the Republic of the Marshall Islands, with weekly amounts of 4.33 inches at Wotje and 3.85 inches at Jaluit resulting in the elimination of abnormal, short-term dryness (D0-S). Highly variable rainfall was observed across the Federated States of Micronesia, with D0-S persisting at Kapingamarangi and Pingelap. Meanwhile, D0-S was eradicated from Nukuoro, where weekly rainfall totaled 10.00 inches, and Lukunor. Wet weather extended into the Republic of Palau. In contrast, 3 weeks of mostly dry weather across American Samoa resulted in the introduction of abnormal, short-term dryness (D0-S), despite antecedent September wetness. American Samoa has also been dealing with hot weather, including a trio of daily-record highs (90, 91, and 90°F) at Pago Pago International Airport from October 19-21.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (October 22–26, 2024), The cold front crossing the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Wednesday into early Thursday will likely have just enough moisture and lift to produce some mainly light to moderate showers, while conditions should continue to remain dry and mostly sunny for areas farther to the south across the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast U.S. Moisture is forecasted to return to the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend, with rain and high elevation northern Cascades snow could commence as early as late Thursday. Temperatures will feel more like September across areas from the central U.S. into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs running 10 to 20 degrees above average for late October and possibly even a little higher over parts of the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes on Tuesday. A cold front pushing rapidly eastward from the northern Plains will bring more seasonable conditions after midweek. From late week into the weekend, a building Western U.S. upper ridge that pushes eastward ahead of the Pacific storm system should promote a warming trend first over the Intermountain West and Rockies/western High Plains and then covering much of the central U.S. where many areas should see highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. The West Coast states should be within a few degrees on either side of normal aside from a brief warmer period over parts of California around midweek.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid October 27–31, 2024) favors above-normal precipitation from parts of the Midwest to the West Coast, and across most of Alaska and Hawaii, with below-normal precipitation favored from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast, as well as parts of the Southwest. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii and much of the contiguous U.S., while below-normal temperatures are likely across the state of Alaska and in the Pacific Northwest.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/22)

USDA Crop Progress - Corn Harvest 65% Done, Soybean Harvest 81% Complete as of Oct. 20

OMAHA (DTN) -- Both the U.S. corn and soybean harvests are now double digits ahead of their five-year averages as dry weather continued across most of the country last week, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn mature was pegged at 98%, 1 point ahead of last year's 97% and 3 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 95%.

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest moved ahead 18 percentage points nationally to reach 65% complete as of Sunday. That was 10 points ahead of last year's 55% and 13 points ahead of the five-year average of 52%. Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin were all ahead of their five-year averages.

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest slowed last week, moving ahead 14 percentage points to reach 81% complete as of Sunday. That was still 9 points ahead of last year's 72% and 14 points ahead of the five-year average of 67%. "Key states Illinois and Iowa are 76% and 91% harvested, respectively, with Minnesota now 95% done," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting also slowed last week, moving ahead 9 points to reach 73% complete nationwide as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year's 74% and 3 points behind the five-year average of 76%. Oklahoma continued to be the furthest behind at 55% planted, 16 points behind the state's five-year average of 71%.

-- Crop development: An estimated 46% of winter wheat had emerged as of Sunday, 3 points behind last year's 49% and 4 points behind the five-year average of 50%.

**

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Dry conditions and near- to above-normal temperatures are expected to continue for most of the country this week, although the Central Plains and Corn Belt could see some showers, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"It continues to be very dry across most of the country, keeping harvest windows pretty wide open but soil moisture very low," Baranick said. "We do have a few interesting weather items this week, though.

"An upper-level low-pressure center is moving through the Central Plains Monday and bringing some areas of showers. That will get into the Midwest for Tuesday where showers will fizzle out. A front will move through the northern half of the country Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the rainfall activity will be along the northern border or more likely north into Canada, but there could be some. And a small system is likely to move through the Corn Belt for Thursday and Friday. Models are trying to figure out just how widespread and heavy the rain may be, but it does not look like it would really disrupt the harvest, or bring moisture to soils for winter wheat, which are not having the best conditions for establishment this fall. Winds may be breezy at times with these disturbances moving through, which could lead to issues for fires throughout the week as well.

"It continues to be awfully warm, too. Some areas are going to be more than 20 degrees above normal early this week. The aforementioned disturbances will knock that down a bit, and even the eastern Midwest could get a touch on the cool side this weekend, but even with the seesawing temperatures, highs and lows will either be near or above normal all week long in most of the country.

"The Pacific Northwest will be the only real outlier, with more chances for meaningful rainfall and cooler-than-average temperatures, which will largely be a good thing for winter wheat establishment there."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Mature	98	94	97	95
Corn Harvested	65	47	55	52
Soybeans Harvested	81	67	72	67
Winter Wheat Planted	73	64	74	76
Winter Wheat Emerged	46	35	49	50
Cotton Bolls Opening	94	88	89	91
Cotton Harvested	44	34	39	38
Sorghum Mature	95	89	95	94
Sorghum Harvested	64	53	63	61
Rice Harvested	96	91	90	92

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Cotton	15	18	30	31	6		11	23	32	29	5		24	19	28	24	5

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/21)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 39 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2464818 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/17)

Precipitation across the country was pretty much nonexistent over the past week. The outliers were in Florida as Hurricane Milton came ashore and brought with it copious amounts of rain over much of the peninsula, as well as some rains in the upper Midwest into New England, and some coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest. From the Mississippi River west, most areas were warmer than normal, with departures of 9-12 degrees or more above normal over much of the southern Plains, Rocky Mountains, and into the desert Southwest. Cooler-than-normal temperatures were recorded along the Eastern Seaboard with departures of 3-6 degrees below normal quite common.

Northeast

Cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the region with much of New York and Massachusetts 3-6 degrees below normal. Northern areas of New York and into southern New Hampshire and Vermont recorded the greatest rainfall in the region last week with much of this area receiving 100% of normal or more. Dryness is developing in more of the area with both short- and long-term signals intermixed in the drought data. Severe drought expanded over southern New Jersey, Delaware and portions of eastern Maryland this week. Moderate drought expanded in New Jersey and Delaware and into eastern Pennsylvania, while abnormally dry conditions expanded over southern New York and eastern Massachusetts. A new area of moderate drought emerged in northwest Massachusetts as well.

Southeast

The story in the region was the development and landfall of Hurricane Milton since the end of the last U.S. Drought Monitor period. Florida received tremendous rain during this storm, especially from Tampa to just north of the Space Coast. Most of the rest of the region was dry but cooler. Temperatures from the Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia and into the Carolinas were 2-4 degrees below normal. Some coastal dryness is being monitored in both North and South Carolina and the only changes made this week were in Alabama, where moderate drought expanded in the south, with a new pocket of severe drought introduced.

South

Warm temperatures dominated the region with some areas of Texas having temperatures greater than 10 degrees above normal. The entire region was warmer than normal outside of far south Texas and portions of southern Louisiana. Like the High Plains, precipitation was pretty much nonexistent in the region this week, and coupled with the warm temperatures, degradation took place over much of the region. In Oklahoma, moderate and severe drought expanded in the central portions of the state while extreme drought expanded in the northeast. Northwest Arkansas had moderate, severe, and extreme drought all expand, while in Louisiana, moderate drought expanded in the north and in the south, with a new pocket of severe drought introduced in the south. A new area of moderate drought emerged in southern Mississippi and into southern portions of Louisiana. Moderate drought expanded over portions of central Tennessee. Texas had widespread degradation over much of the east and central portions of the state as well as expansion of moderate drought over the Panhandle. Severe and extreme drought expanded in the central portion of the state, where long-term indicators are showing drought at various timescales. Along the border with Oklahoma, severe and extreme drought expanded slightly.

Midwest

Temperatures were mixed across the region with the eastern areas and Michigan mainly near normal to 2-4 degrees below normal. Other areas were 2-4 degrees above normal for the week. Rain impacted the northern portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and into Michigan with some areas recording 100-150% of normal precipitation for the week. The rains brought some small improvements in northern Minnesota where severe drought eased to moderate drought. Other areas impacted by rain either slowed down the recent dry pattern or were not enough to flip the data to show improvements. Degradation took place in the northern portion of lower Michigan where moderate drought was expanded. Moderate drought expanded over northern Indiana and into southern Michigan and severe drought expanded over northeast Indiana. Moderate and severe drought expanded over portions of northern Illinois and into eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Moderate drought expanded over portions of both southern and northern Wisconsin as well as in central Iowa. Severe drought expanded over northwest Iowa and southwest and northern Minnesota. Missouri had widespread degradation with moderate and severe drought expanding over central, southern, and western portions of the state and abnormally dry conditions filling in for central Missouri. Ohio had little change this week, with only some expansion of severe drought in the northwest and a slight improvement to moderate drought in the south.

High Plains

The dry pattern continued over the High Plains with only a small area of North Dakota recording any precipitation this week. The warm temperatures continued as well with most areas 4-8 degrees above normal and even greater departures of 8-12 degrees above normal in the plains of Wyoming and Colorado and portions of western Nebraska and South Dakota. Degradation took place from North Dakota to Kansas and into the plains of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Moderate and severe drought were expanded in North Dakota, mainly in the south and west portions of the state. South Dakota had moderate and severe drought expand in the northern, southern, and western portions of the state and had extreme drought expand in the northwest and a new area in southern portions of the state. Nebraska and Kansas both had severe and moderate drought expand over many areas of the state. Kansas had extreme drought expand in the far southeast. Moderate and severe drought expanded over eastern Colorado and abnormally dry conditions expanded over portions of northeast Colorado and into Wyoming and Nebraska. Eastern Wyoming had moderate, severe, and extreme drought conditions expand.

West

As with the Plains and the South, most all of the West was dry this week with only some coastal areas of California and Washington measuring any precipitation. Warm temperatures dominated the region with almost everyone at least 3-6 degrees above normal for the week and areas of Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Nevada, Wyoming and southern Montana 9-12 degrees above normal. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded over Washington and Oregon. In Arizona, moderate and severe drought expanded in the southern portions of the state and into southern California. Moderate drought also expanded in central Arizona. The heat that has impacted the Southwest has been record-setting. Phoenix went 21 straight days of setting all-time daily high temperature records that ended on October 15, when the high temperature of 99 degrees Fahrenheit did not break the daily high. New Mexico had severe and extreme drought expand over southern parts of the state, while abnormally dry conditions filled in more of the west. Moderate drought emerged in southwest Colorado, with severe drought expanding and a new area of extreme drought in the north central portions of the state. Utah had abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought expand in the east. In Wyoming, moderate drought expanded over the southwest part of the state, severe drought expanded in the central area, and moderate drought expanded in the northwest.

Caribbean

No changes were made in Puerto Rico this week.

This week, near-normal conditions continued across the U.S. Virgin Islands. The satellite-based precipitation estimates across the Virgin Islands showed the rainfall amounts ranged from 0.04 to 0.8 inches this week. On St. Croix, the weekly rainfall amount ranged from 0.38 inches at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW) to 1.22 inches at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9NE) with 4 days missing. Intermediate values included 0.74 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 0.74 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), 1.08 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W), 0.95 inches at VI-SC-25 (Christiansted 4.4W), 1.08 inches at VI-SC-29 (Frederiksted 2.5 NNE), and 0.82 inches at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE). Due to the recent rains, the depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on 15 October 2024 was 21.60 ft below land surface. Thus, St. Croix remained free of drought.

On St. Thomas, rainfall totals this week ranged from 0.22 inch at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie 1.2 NNW) to 0.80 inches at VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West 4.2 WNW). In addition, at VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West 1.3N), 0.22 inches of rain was reported with 2 days an accounted for. The depth to water level Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on 15 October 2024 was 8.52 ft below land surface, which is an increase in depth to water level as compared to last week (i.e., 7.43 ft). Thus, St. Thomas remained in free of drought.

On St. John, rainfall amounts reported at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) was 0.29 inches. In addition, VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach) observed 0.59 inches of rain. For St. John (Windswept station), except the 1-month SPI (-1.9), all the SPI data showed positive values (i.e., 0.44, 1.21, 1.72, and 1.24 values for the 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month, respectively). The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on 15 October 2024 was 7.62 ft below land surface, which has slightly increased this week as compared to last week (i.e., 7.43 ft). However, compared to other weeks, the yearly graph shows relatively a shallow depth resulting St. John to remain free of drought for this week.

Pacific

In Alaska, some abnormally dry conditions were removed in southeast portions of the state.

Hawaii continued with a dry pattern and abnormally dry conditions expanded to cover the rest of Oahu, Maui, and most all of the Big Island.

Generally wet and normal conditions continued across the Marshall Islands this week. On Kwajalein, 2.92 inches of rain was reported this week. Ailinglapalap reported 1.86 inches of rain, remaining in drought free condition. This week, Jaluit and Majuro received only 1.05 and 0.89 inches of rain, respectively. However, both Jaluit and Majuro are remaining free of drought due to the wet conditions in the previous weeks. Wotje received only 0.69 inches of rain this week. In addition, the island reported only 1.52 inches or rain last week. Because of drier-than-normal conditions in the past few weeks, Wotje is in short-term abnormally condition. No depiction was made for Milli and Utirik due to missing data.

Northern Micronesia received heavy showers this week. Pohnpei and Chuuk reported 4.10 and 2.57 inches of rain this week, respectively. Thus, these islands remained free of drought. Kosrae reported only 0.55 inches of rain this week. However, Kosrae received 2.63 inches of rain last week, improving the island to drought free condition.

Kapingamarangi received only 1 inch of rain this week, so the island remains in short-term abnormally dry conditions. This week, only 1.43 and 1.76 inches of rain were reported on Ulithi and Yap, respectively. Thus, both Ulithi and Yap remained in drier-than-normal conditions. Lukunoch, Nukuoro and Pingelap, reported only 0.20, 1.79, and 0.26 inches of rainfall this week, respectively. Thus, these locations remained in short-term abnormally dry conditions. No depiction was made for Fananu and Woleai due to missing data.

Wet conditions prevailed across Palau. Heavy scattered showers (2.77 inches of rain) were reported on Palau IAP (Airai) this week. Koror COOP station also reported 0.97 inches of rain, and the island remained in drought-free condition.

Heavy scattered showers were observed this week across the Mariana Islands. The weekly rainfall total report showed that 2.74 inches of rain was observed on Saipan (IAP, manual gauge) this week. Also, Saipan (AMME NPS) received only 1.23 inches of rain. Thus, Saipan remained in drought free conditions. Rota received 2.37 inches of rain to remain free from drought. On Guam, 3.14 inches of rain was reported this week, and the island remains in drought free condition.

Normal conditions prevailed across American Samoa in the past few weeks. Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge observed 0.61 and 0.62 inches of rain this week, respectively. Even though Pago Pago reported 0.14 inches of rain this week, the island remains free of drought due to wet conditions in the past few weeks.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, it is anticipated that much of the Rocky Mountain and central Plains areas will have the best chances for measurable precipitation. The highest amounts are anticipated over northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, where 2 or more inches may be recorded. Most of the other areas are expecting an inch or less. Temperatures during this time are anticipated to be above normal over much of the Plains, Midwest, and into the Northeast, with departures of 10-15 degrees above normal over the upper Midwest. Cooler than normal temperatures of 2-4 degrees below normal are expected over the Four Corners region and the Rocky Mountains.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that above-normal temperatures will continue for almost all of the country through the end of October, especially from Texas into the Midwest. The coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest have the greatest probabilities of below-normal temperatures during this time. Outlooks show that the greatest chances of below-normal precipitation are from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest and over much of the East. The highest probabilities of above-normal precipitation will be in the central to northern Plains, northern Rocky Mountains and into portions of the Pacific Northwest.