This Week's Drought Summary (11/21)

The trend of the past few weeks toward generally increased precipitation across the Contiguous 48 states continued this week, with several sizeable swaths of heavy precipitation recorded, and broad coverage of near or above normal amounts. The heaviest amounts fell from the Cascades westward to the Pacific Ocean, in addition to southwestern Oregon and northwestern California. Amounts exceeded 3 inches through almost this entire region, with amounts of 5 inches to locally 1 foot observed in portions of the Cascades and immediate Pacific Coastline, especially where orographically enhanced. Several other large areas recorded at least an inch and locally up to 5 inches, including most of the northern Intermountain West, a swath from the southern High Plains through the central Great Plains and the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, much of the lower Mississippi Valley, the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the upper Southeast, much of the Virginia Tidewater and eastern North Carolina, and parts of the southern and central Appalachians. Numerous locations in the Lower Mississippi Valley and northwestern Alabama reported 3 to 5 inches of rain, as did a swath in north-central Kentucky and isolated spots in western Tennessee, northwestern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas, and western Iowa. The broad coverage of moderate to heavy precipitation prompted sizeable areas of improvement in this week’s Drought Monitor. The pattern of increased precipitation has yet to materialize in the Northeast, however, where record and near-record low precipitation amounts have been observed over the past few months, and continued dryness last week allowed conditions to continue to deteriorate. Little or no precipitation was also recorded across the southern reaches of South Carolina and Georgia, the Florida Peninsula, southern Texas, most of the central and northern Plains, and the southwestern quarter of the country, with patches of deterioration noted in these areas as well this week.

Northeast

Generally 1 to 3 inches fell on much of central and southern West Virginia, resulted in continued slow improvement. Several tenths of an inch fell to the north up the western tier of Pennsylvania, as well as limited areas in central Pennsylvania and adjacent Maryland. Elsewhere, essentially from north-central Maryland northward and eastward, little or no precipitation fell. A severe lack of precipitation has been in place since about August 19. From then through Nov. 19, 0.79 inch of rain has been reported in Trenton NJ (normal 11.58 inches, so about 7 percent of normal) and 1.09 inches has fallen on Philadelphia PA (normal 11.45 inches; less than 10 percent of normal). Very low amounts can be found for this period over a large part of the Northeast Region east of the mountains, and in some cases across the higher elevations as well. As a result, conditions continued to deteriorate in these areas. D3 expanded from part of southern New Jersey into adjacent southeastern Pennsylvania, central Delaware, and northeastern Maryland while a new area of D3 was introduced over much of eastern Massachusetts and some adjacent sites. Severe drought (D2) expanded to cover much of the East Coast Megalopolis and the western suburbs. Unusual brush fire activity and wildfire danger has been frequent for the past couple of months, and a few municipalities have mandatory water use restrictions in place, including the Trenton NJ Water Works and the Borough of Doylestown PA

Southeast

Precipitation was highly variable across the Southeast Region again last week. Little or no rain fell on the Florida Peninsula, the southern half of Georgia, and southern South Carolina, where dryness and drought generally persisted with a few areas of intensification. West of this area, however, precipitation was abundant across Mississippi and the northwestern half of Alabama, where amounts of 1.5 to locally 4.0 inches fell. And to the north, moderate to locally heavy precipitation fell across most of the Carolinas and Virginia, with totals exceeding 1.5 inches in much of the Virginia Tidewater. Several areas of dryness and drought improved in northern and western reaches of the Region, especially where rains were heaviest across parts of Mississippi and northwestern Alabama. More limited improvement was introduced in northwestern Georgia and across both southeastern and southwestern Virginia, primarily in areas of moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) last week. In the areas with little or no rain, dryness and drought generally persisted, but conditions deteriorated to D2 in southeastern Alabama and adjacent parts of Georgia and Florida. Meanwhile, moderate drought was introduced in a band from the north-central Florida Peninsula eastward into northeastern Florida, and a new area of abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced in southern Florida where rainfall totals ranged from one-half to two-thirds of normal for the past couple of months

South

Like the Southeastern Region, the South Region experienced highly variable rainfall this past week, although more areas experienced significant rainfall and improved conditions than dryness and deterioration. The latter was confined to central and southern Texas where little or no rain fell, expanding D0 through much of Deep South Texas and prompting the introduction of D1 in a patch near the lower Rio Grande River. Farther north, moderate to heavy precipitation prevailed, especially across western Teas, much of Oklahoma, portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Tennessee. A large part of these areas saw a 1-category improvement, nearly eliminating severe drought (D2) in western Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, and adjacent Texas, and also decreasing D1 coverage substantially across the northern and eastern tiers of the Region.

Midwest

Heavy rain again affected the lower Ohio Valley and most of Kentucky, which continued to scour drought and abnormal dryness out of these areas. Moderate to heavy rain also fell on central and southern Wisconsin, most of central and southern Minnesota, the western half of Iowa, and the western tier of Missouri. Amounts exceeded an inch through almost all of these areas, with 2-3 inches soaking a few areas. As a result, there were sizeable areas with improvement across central and southern sections of Wisconsin and Minnesota, and along the western tier of the Midwest Region. Elsewhere, totals between 0.5 and 1.0 inch were widespread, with only portions of Michigan and northeastern Ohio reporting under one-half inch. There were scattered areas of improvement throughout this area of moderate precipitation, with deterioration limited to small areas where only a few tenths of an inch of rain were reported.

High Plains

Moderate to heavy precipitation was widespread across the southern and eastern reaches of the High Plains Region, and moderate amounts were observed in some of the higher elevations of Wyoming and central Colorado, and over northern North Dakota. Elsewhere, only a few tenths of an inch, at most, was measured. In the areas of heaviest precipitation (1.5 to approaching 3.0 inches), improvement was introduced. This included significant parts of Kansas, southeastern Colorado, eastern sections of Nebraska and South Dakota, and a relatively small area in southeastern North Dakota. The remainder of the region, under a regime of light to moderate precipitation at best, dryness and drought assessments were unchanged.

West

Heavy to excessive precipitation in northwestern California and the Northwest from the Cascades to the Pacific Coast induced widespread 1-category improvement in these areas. Totals exceeding 3 inches were almost ubiquitous, and amounts of 5 to locally 12 inches were common in the Cascades and near the immediate coast. This amounted to peeling back D0 and D1 to the west. In Oregon, streamflows have finally begun to respond to the increased precipitation. Other areas of improvement were introduced where there was spottier moderate to heavy rain in parts of eastern Oregon, northern Idaho, and westernmost Montana. Moderate to heavy precipitation (locally up to 3 inches) also doused southeastern New Mexico adjacent to the heavy rains in western Texas, with similar 1-category improvements introduced in areas with over 1.5 inches of precipitation. Elsewhere, only scattered light precipitation was reported, and dryness and drought were primarily unchanged. Some deterioration was noted in west-central Montana (to D1) while a significant swath of eastern Montana slid into extreme drought (D3).

Caribbean

Most of Puerto Rico recorded light to moderate precipitation, with locally higher amounts of 2 inches or more. This was sufficient to keep dryness at bay, and the Commonwealth remains free of any dryness or drought for the second consecutive week.

Several frontal boundaries moved across the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (November 13-19), bringing rounds of heavy rain. Weekly rainfall totals ranged from 2 to 4 inches on St. John, 2 to 5 inches on St. Thomas, and 1 to over 3 inches on St. Croix. Monthly totals were well above normal. The rain from this week and previous weeks saturated the soils and groundwater levels continued to rise on all 3 islands, with depth to water only mere inches below the land surface on St. John & St. Thomas. All 3 islands remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Pacific

A few inches of precipitation again fell on the area of abnormal dryness (D0) in southeastern Alaska. Although totals have been slightly less than normal, enough precipitation has fallen during the past few weeks to prompt removal of the dry area, leaving the state free of dryness and drought.

Precipitation totals were unremarkable across the state last week, leaving dryness and drought conditions essentially unchanged, with no change in the Drought Monitor depiction.

Several tropical weather features brought rain to parts of the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (November 13-19). Tropical Storm Man-yi spread rain across western portions of Micronesia while a robust Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) brought rain to eastern portions of Micronesia. Trade-wind troughs moved across the region between these two features. An active trough brought numerous showers to American Samoa. These features created bands of rain across the USAPI. The week was drier in between these bands.

Monthly rainfall totals for November to date are expected to exceed monthly minimums needed to meet most water needs in the Marianas, Republic of Palau, American Samoa, most of the Marshall Islands, and western Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). November has been below monthly minimums in some central and eastern parts of the FSM.

The Marianas, Republic of Palau, and American Samoa (Tutuila) remain free of drought and abnormal dryness (D-Nothing) on this week’s map. Most of the Marshall Islands have had a wet month, with no drought or abnormal dryness. The exception is Jaluit, where abnormal dryness (D0-S) continues due to low reported precipitation (only 2.76 inches for the month so far).

Western portions of the FSM (Yap State) have had a wet week and month, with no drought or abnormal dryness. November rainfall totals are trending below monthly minimums further east at Chuuk, Kosrae, and Pingelap, and in southern areas at Kapingamarangi. Lukunor had 3.37 inches of rain this week, which brought the monthly total to 5.42 inches which is above the monthly minimum for this far in the month, so D0-S ended. Chuuk’s weekly total (1.61 inches) was below the weekly minimum and the monthly total was below the monthly minimum; no drought impacts were reported and the water catchment tanks were in good shape, but D0-S continued to reflect the below-minimum precipitation. Kapingamarangi reported no rainfall (zero inches) this week and the monthly total (3.64 inches) was below the monthly minimum, so D0-S continued. Kosrae has been dry this week (1.33 inches) and for the month to date (2.86 inches); since previous weeks were wet, D-Nothing continued this week, but Kosrae will be watched for D0-S next week if the dryness continues. Woleai reported less than an inch (0.89) of rain this week, but the month was above the monthly minimum and previous weeks were wet, so D-Nothing continued.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (November 21-25), moderate to heavy precipitation is expected in the western and northeastern quarters of the contiguous states, and along the immediate Canadian border. Lesser amounts, if any, are expected in and around the Plains and along most of the southern tier. The greatest amounts are forecast across northern California and the Sierra Nevada, where totals exceeding 5 inches are expected to be widespread, with the potential for as much as 15 inches at isolated spots in the higher elevations. Generally 1.5 to 3.0 inches are expected in the West from the Cascades to the Pacific Coast and in portions of the northern Intermountain West. Similar amounts are also forecast for most of New York State, northeastern Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent New England, the Great Lakes, and southwestern California. Between 0.75 and 1.5 inches should fall in the remainder of the Northwest, the higher elevations of the central Rockies, southwestern California, much of the Great Lakes, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware, and the rest of New England. In contrast, little or no precipitation is expected in the Plains from the central Dakotas southward, and along the southern tier of the country from southeastern California eastward through Georgia and most of the Carolinas. Very warm weather is expected in central and southern Texas, with temperatures expected to average 10 to 13 deg. F above normal. A larger area from eastern Arizona through the Lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to average 5 to 10 deg. F above normal. Meanwhile, unusually low temperatures averaging 10 to 17 deg. F below normal are anticipated from the central and western Dakotas through most of Montana. Temperatures may average up to 10 deg. F above normal from the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains westward through the Great Basin and northern Intermountain West. Near or slightly above normal temperatures are expected elsewhere.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid November 26-30) favors above-normal precipitation in a swath from the Southwest and the Great Basin eastward through most of the Plains, and from Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast. Only the Northeast, Florida Peninsula, central and southern Texas, the Great Lakes, and the Far West are outside the area where above-normal precipitation is expected. Odds exceed 50 percent over the east-central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Unusually dry weather is more likely in western Texas, the Northwest, parts of the Intermountain West, plus central and northern portions of the Rockies and Plains. Subnormal precipitation is also more likely across Hawaii, especially the northwestern islands. Meanwhile, the southern tier of the country from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast is expected to average warmer than normal, with odds topping 50 percent along and near the Gulf of Mexico Coast. Hawaii is also expected to average warmer than normal, especially the central and northwestern islands. Cold weather is favored across central and northern portions of the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi Valley, plus some adjacent areas. Chances for significantly subnormal temperatures are 70 to 80+ percent from Montana east of the Rockies and most of the Dakotas.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/19)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/19)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 47 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2136828 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

USDA Crop Progress - Winter Wheat Rating Jumps 5 Points to 49% Good to Excellent as of Nov. 17

OMAHA (DTN) -- Increased moisture helped boost U.S. winter wheat conditions nationwide again last week, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Tuesday.

More precipitation is expected this week and next week, according to DTN forecasters.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting moved ahead by another 3 points to reach 94% complete nationwide as of Sunday, equal to last year's pace but 2 points behind the five-year average of 96%. Oklahoma made significant progress last week. Harvest there moved ahead 11 percentage points to reach 90% complete as of Sunday. That was still 6 points behind the state's five-year average of 96%. Kansas' crop was 99% planted, slightly ahead of the state's average of 98%.

-- Crop development: An estimated 84% of winter wheat had emerged as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year but equal to the five-year average. Top producer Kansas' crop was 91% emerged, 5 points ahead of the state's five-year average of 86%. Oklahoma's crop was 75% emerged, 12 points behind the state's five-year average of 87%. South Dakota's crop was 83% emerged, 11 points behind the state's average of 94%. Nebraska's crop was 91% emerged, 8 points behind the state's average of 99%.

-- Crop condition: An estimated 49% of winter wheat that had emerged was in good-to-excellent condition, up 5 points from 44% the previous week. That is now ahead of last year's rating of 48% good to excellent. Fifteen percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, a 3-percentage-point improvement from 18% the previous week. "Kansas' winter wheat is rated 49% good to excellent, while Oklahoma, South Dakota and Nebraska are all below 37% good to excellent," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Soft red wheat states of Missouri and Illinois are rated highly at 72% and 75% good to excellent."

**

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

More precipitation is on the way for much of the country this week and next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"It's another week with more precipitation falling over the middle of the country," Baranick said. "A big storm started in the Southern Plains on Sunday and is quickly moving northeast into the Upper Midwest for Monday night. A big swath of heavy rain, generally in the 1- to 2-inch range, is forecast in this zone. The front to the system continues eastward on Tuesday, and heavy rain is likely to go through the Southeast, picking up on some moisture and remnants to Tropical Storm Sara to enhance the showers and thunderstorms.

"Colder air is going to filter into the region behind the system and continue showers going across the Midwest the rest of the week, especially in the east. That could lead to some snow with the heaviest amounts occurring in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota where up to 6 inches will be possible. I would not be surprised to see similar amounts around Ohio or western Pennsylvania with some lake enhancement there as well. This will all make fieldwork a little more difficult getting the last of the crop out. But it will continue to help reduce drought and build lasting soil moisture and improve water levels on local rivers and streams.

"This storm may not be the last one either. It does appear possible for another storm to move through Northern areas this weekend into early next week, possibly with more snow, and the week of Thanksgiving looks to be pretty active with several systems moving through as well."

**

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Winter Wheat Planted	94	91	94	96
Winter Wheat Emerged	84	76	85	84
Cotton Harvested	77	71	74	72
Sorghum Harvested	95	91	95	94

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Winter Wheat	4	11	36	41	8		6	12	38	38	6		7	10	35	39	9

This Week's Drought Summary (11/14)

Storm systems brought significant precipitation and drought relief to broad areas in the central Rockies, central and southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower and Middle Ohio Valley, and the South Atlantic Region. Meanwhile, subnormal precipitation and some unseasonable warmth led to deterioration in dryness and drought conditions in portions of the Southwest, southern and western Texas, the interior Southeast, the northeastern Gulf Coast, the central and southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic region, the Northeast. Excessive precipitation totals fell on some areas. From central South Carolina through much of southeastern Georgia, amounts of 4 inches to locally a foot of rain were reported. Similar totals fell on central Louisiana, a band through central and north-central Texas, small parts of the Lower Ohio Valley, and orographically-favored areas in the Northwest. In addition, a broad area covering the eastern half of Colorado and adjacent areas in New Mexico and the central High Plains recorded 2 to 4 inches of precipitation, much of which fell as snow in the middle and higher elevations. A few scattered sites reported 3 to 4.5 feet of snow, mainly in the higher elevations of Colorado.

Northeast

Generally 1 to 2 inches fell on much of northern West Virginia and parts of western Pennsylvania as well as southern Maryland. Amounts were closer to 0.5 inch in most areas outside New England, with little or no precipitation reported there outside northernmost Maine. As a result, moisture deficits continued to increase in most of the Northeast Region, resulting in the expansion of extreme drought (D3) into southern New Jersey while severe drought (D2) enveloped northern New Jersey, part of eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York State including most of the New York City area, and western Massachusetts. Several locations across Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, and New Jersey had recorded a record number of consecutive days without precipitation (including Newark NJ, Trenton NJ, Philadelphia PA, Baltimore MD, and Washington DC) before light rains on November 10 ended the streaks of consecutive days without measurable precipitation at 5 to 6 weeks, but these amounts were light and had little impact on the dryness and drought found across most of the Region. Unusually high fire danger and numerous brush fires have been observed recently.

Southeast

Precipitation was highly variable across the Southeast Region last week, with some areas experiencing substantial relief from dryness and drought while other areas with much less rainfall saw conditions deteriorate. Heavy rain doused an area covering the central and southern sections of both Georgia and South Carolina with at least an inch of rain, with a swath of much higher amounts (5 to 12 inches) from central South Carolina into part of southeastern Georgia. The higher amounts eliminated dryness and drought that had encompassed the area, including 2-class improvements in areas of moderate drought where the higher amounts fell. Heavy rain was observed in smaller areas along the central Gulf Coast and over the western fringes of the Region, resulting in patches of improvement in those areas as well. Meanwhile, in a swath across the interior Southeastern Region from the northeastern Gulf Coast northward through the Piedmont and much of Virginia, little or no rain fell while temperatures averaged well above normal (by 10 to over 20 deg. F most days). These conditions combined to worsen dryness and drought in many areas from central Mississippi through Alabama, northern and western Georgia, much of the central and northern Carolinas, and Virginia. Patches of severe drought (D3) expanded slightly in parts of north-central and southwestern Alabama, and adjacent southeastern Mississippi. Similar to areas farther north, a record or near-record number of consecutive days without measurable rain were recorded in northern Georgia and a few other locales, with precipitation evading Atlanta GA for about 6 weeks.

South

Like the Southeastern Region, the South Region experienced highly variable rainfall this past week. Heavy precipitation – in some areas for the second consecutive week – soaked a swath from Louisiana and eastern Texas northward through much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. A broad swath reaching as far west as central Arkansas recorded at least 1.5 inches in most places, with some areas recording much higher amounts (3 to 8 inches in part of western Tennessee, and over a foot in parts of central Louisiana). This resulted in reductions in dryness and drought severity across affected areas of the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas, with some 2-class improvements imposed in a small part of both southwestern Louisiana and an area straddling southwesternmost Mississippi and adjacent southeastern Louisiana. To the north, the heavy rains also removed abnormal dryness from across western Tennessee. Farther west, another area of heavy precipitation accompanied a frontal passage in a swath from central Texas into the central Red River (south) Valley, where totals reached 4 to 8 inches along the axis of heaviest amounts. To the north, heavy precipitation associated with a pair of potent upper-level low pressure systems dropped over 2 inches on a large part of central and western Oklahoma and much of the Texas Panhandle, with localized totals exceeding 4 inches in the eastern Texas Panhandle northward to the Oklahoma/Kansas border. There was also a patch of heavy rainfall to the east across portions of eastern Oklahoma, where isolated amounts peaked at around 3 inches. Dryness and drought affecting these areas were significantly eased, with a couple patches of 2-class improvements in north-central and northeastern Oklahoma. In stark contrast, little or no precipitation was observed from parts of southeastern Oklahoma southward through Deep South Texas, and across western Texas as well. Dryness and drought worsened in some of the areas, with the most widespread deterioration noted in western Texas. The broad area of exceptional drought (D4, the most intense category) expanded there to cover most or all of eastern Hudspeth, Culberson, western Reeves, Jeff Davis, Presidio, and Brewster Counties. Also, D3 (extreme drought) also expanded to cover most of the remainder of the Big Bend of Texas.

Midwest

Heavy rain pounded the Lower Ohio Valley as a broad area across western Kentucky and adjacent Indiana received at least 3 inches of rain, with a portion of interior western Kentucky reporting 4 to nearly 8 inches of rain. Totals of over an inch stretched farther east through most of central and western Ohio, and also affected parts of the central and northern Great Lakes, central to western Illinois, and parts of southern and eastern Missouri. Most other areas recorded several tenths of an inch of precipitation, but little or none fell across the northwestern 2/3 of Minnesota, most of central Iowa, and near the Mississippi River from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin. This moisture resulted in a fairly large area of improvement stretching across most of the greater Ohio Valley, and from Lake Michigan through the dry parts of central and southern Missouri, in addition to portions of southeastern Minnesota. In the areas receiving limited rainfall, dryness and drought has not been as quick to worsen as in some other parts of the country, likely due to relatively cooler temperatures, but some deterioration was introduced across the central Lower Peninsula of Michigan, and over part of southeastern Wisconsin and adjacent Illinois.

High Plains

A potent 500-hPa low triggered widespread heavy precipitation over southern half of the Region, except along the eastern fringe, while amounts were limited to several tenths of an inch at most farther north. Between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation fell on a large swath covering the eastern half of Colorado, most of central and western Kansas, and adjacent Nebraska. In nearby areas, amounts ranging from a few tenths of an inch to a couple of inches were observed over the western half of Colorado amounts of 0.5 inch to approaching 2 inches in spots was observed across southeastern Wyoming, most other areas in Nebraska, and eastern Kansas. Moderate amounts fell on a swath across the central and southwestern Dakotas the remainder of this region reported little or no precipitation, as well as most of Wyoming. In some of the higher elevations of Colorado, this precipitation fell as heavy snow, with a few locations reporting snow piling up 3 to 4.5 feet deep (50 to 54 inches buried Fort Garland CO while 44 to 47 inches were reported near La Veta, Elbert, and Trinidad CO). All of this resulted in a large area of improvement depicted over southern and western Kansas, most of northern and eastern Colorado, part of southwestern Nebraska, and a few spots in eastern Wyoming. There were a few areas of 2-class improvement in southeastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas, and the fringes of south-central and southeastern Kansas. Elsewhere, due to relatively cool weather, the dry week didn’t engender much deterioration, with most of these locations remaining unchanged from last week. One exception was in a small patch of northeastern Nebraska and adjacent South Dakota, where a new patch of extreme drought (D3) was identified.

West

Heavy precipitation In northeastern New Mexico, with snow reported in some of the higher elevations, produced areas of improvement to dryness and drought. A few high spots in New Mexico reported near 3 feet of snow, including locations near Las Vegas NM and Folsom NM. The only other area of improvement in the West Region was in eastern Washington. Not much precipitation fell last week, but based on impacts and a reassessment of conditions,

Caribbean

Moderate to locally heavy rain, ranging from just under an inch to over 2 inches in spots, was sufficient to end the few areas of abnormal dryness that were affecting the Commonwealth. Puerto Rico is now free of impactful dryness. Severe drought was eased to moderate drought (D1). Meanwhile, continued dryness for the past several weeks prompted some deterioration in the Southwest, with extreme drought (D3) introduced in and around western Arizona near the Lower Colorado River, an expanded area of severe drought (D2) through southwestern Nevada and adjacent California, and increased coverage of moderate drought in parts of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, as well as a portion of northeastern Arizona. These areas in the Southwest have averaged considerably cooler than normal for the past couple of weeks (generally 2.5 to 6.0 deg. F below normal), but looking at the last 3 months as a whole, average temperatures have been unusually warm, averaging 2.0 to locally 6.0 deg. F above normal for the period from mid-August into mid-November as a whole, with the greatest departures observed in later summer and early autumn, including record triple-digit heat that lasted a few weeks in some areas, which has served to aggravate the dryness and drought.

Unstable weather conditions prevailed across the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the week, resulting in scattered showers that were heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms.

On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King AP reported 6.29 inches of rain this week. On other stations, rainfall totals this week ranged from 5.92 inches at VI-ST-14 (Nadir 0.3E/Tropical Marine) to 8.05 inches at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie 1.2 NNW). VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West 1.3N) and VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West 4.2 WNW) reported 7.62 inches (1 day missing) and 5.20 inches, respectively. In addition, the depth to water level Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on Nov. 12, 2024, was only 0.54 feet below land surface, which is a significant decrease in depth to water level due to recent heavy rains. Thus, St. Thomas remained free of drought.

On St. Croix, the weekly rainfall amount ranged from 1.05 inches at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE) with three days missing to 4.30 inches at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW). Intermediate values included 4.21 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 3.48 inches at VI-SC-29 (Frederiksted 2.5 NNE), 3.22 inches at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9NE), 3.49 inches at VI-SC-25 (Christiansted 4.4W), 2.76 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), and 2.83 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W). Due to the recent heavy rains, the depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on Nov. 12, 2024, was 18.26 feet below land surface. Thus, St. Croix remained free of drought.

On St. John, Rafe Boulon (VI-SJ-3: Windswept Beach) received 6.31 inches of rain. Rainfall amounts observed at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) was 7.33 inches. With 5 days missing, VI-SJ-9 (Trunk Bay 0.2 W) reported 5.08 inches of rain this week. In addition, the depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on Nov. 12, 2024, was 4.87 feet below land surface, which has significantly decreased due to recent heavy rains so that St. John remains free of drought.

Pacific

Between 5 and 9 inches of precipitation doused far southeastern Alaska last week, but farther north, in the area affected by abnormal dryness, lesser amounts (2 to locally 4 inches) were reported. These amounts in the D0 area are near or slightly below normal, so D0 persisted unchanged from last week.

It was a fairly wet week due to a weak cold front that reached Maui County before stalling and dissipating. Elsewhere, rainfall mainly affected the windward slopes. Most of the leeward areas remained dry, which caused some areas of Maui to deteriorate. In Kauai, increased rainfall and streamflow supported improvements over the northeast 2/3 of the island, which resulted in the removal of dryness on the east side, and improvement from D1 to D0 on the north side. Rainy conditions in Oahu along the slopes of the Koolau Range support continued improvement over that region, improving conditions to D0 on the southeast side of Oahu. Not much rainfall has been reaching the Waianae Range on the west side, so D2 remains intact there. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and condition reports support going from D2 to D3 on the southwest side of Molokai, with the rest of the island unchanged. Similarly, NDVI and condition reports support expanding D2 in Maui eastward along the southeast flank of Haleakala (the eastern mountain on the island). Finally, significant precipitation fell on much of the Big Island, with corroborating NDVI and condition reports supporting improvements. The D0 on the central and southern parts of the island has been removed, and the area covered by D1 in the northwest is retracted significantly, restricted to a swath along the lower slopes of the Kohala Mountains.

Normal conditions prevailed across most parts of the Marshall Islands this week. Ailinglapalap reported only 0.39 inches of rain with one day unaccounted for. However, Ailinglapalap had 6.17 inches of rain last week, allowing the island to be free from dryness. This week, Wotje, Kwajalein, and Majuro reported 2.19, 2.76, and 2.59 inches of rain, respectively. These islands remain drought-free. However, Jaluit received only 1.67 inches of rain this week. Because Jaluit reported less than 2 inches of weekly rainfall for three consecutive weeks, the island deteriorated to short-term abnormally dry. No depiction was made for Milli or Utirik due to missing data.

This week, near-normal conditions were observed over western and southeastern Micronesia. Kapingamarangi received 3.37 inches of rain this week, improving from moderate drought to abnormally dry. Ulithi, Yap, Pohnpei, Pingelap, and Woleai, reported 5.18, 2.34, 2.06, and 1.97 inches of rain, respectively, allowing the islands to remain free of drought. Kosrae and Nukuoro reported 1.05 (2 days missing) and 1.90 (1 day missing) inches of rainfall this week, respectively. However, due to wet conditions for several weeks, both Kosrae and Nukuoro remained drought-free. In contrast, on Chuuk and Lukunoch, only 1.68 and 0.76 inches of rain (two days missing) were observed this week. Since both Chuuk and Lukunoch have had less than 2 inches of rain for the past three weeks, the islands deteriorated to short-term abnormally dry condition. No depiction was made for Fananu or Utirik due to missing data.

Heavy scattered showers were observed across American Samoa. Pago Pago reported 4.23 inches of rain this week, remaining free of drought. In addition, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge observed 4.55 and 2.17 inches of rain this week, respectively. Thus, American Samoa remains drought-free.

Normal conditions prevailed across Palau. Palau IAP (Airai) and Koror reported 1.23 and 0.57 inches of rain this week. Palau IAP (Airai) received 2.56 inches of rain last week, allowing the island to remain free of drought.

Wet conditions prevailed across the Mariana Islands this week. The weekly rainfall total report showed that Saipan (IAP, manual gauge), Rota, and Guam observed 4.02, 2.95, and 2.46 inches of rain this week, respectively. Also, AMME NPS Saipan received 1.48 inches of rain with. Thus, these islands remained drought-free.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (November 14-18), moderate to heavy precipitation is again expected from the Cascades westward to the Pacific Coast, with totals expected to exceed 5 inches expected in some of the higher elevations and orographically-favored sites. One or more inches are also anticipated in the Sierra Nevada, with several tenths of an inch possible along most of the California Coast down to the Mexican border. Parts of the northern Intermountain West are expected to receive over an inch of precipitation, with 2 to locally 4 inches forecast across the Idaho Panhandle. A low pressure system and trailing front should trigger another round of heavy precipitation in the central and southern Great Plains from central Texas northward into southeastern Nebraska and the Middle Mississippi Valley, with 1.5 to locally 4.0 inches anticipated from central and east-central Kansas southward through the Red River (south) Valley and adjacent northern Texas. At least an inch is also anticipated east of the Lower and Middle Mississippi River through the interior Southeast, Lower Ohio Valley, central and southern Appalachians, and the mid-Atlantic region. Over 2 inches may fall on parts of the central Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont. Meanwhile, moderate amounts should fall on the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains and across the Great Lakes region and the northern Ohio Valley. In contrast, little or no precipitation is expected across much of the Northeast, Florida and the adjacent South Atlantic region, southern Texas, the northern Plains, the central and southern Rockies, and the Southwest.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid November 19-23) features enhanced chances for both above-normal precipitation and temperatures across the Upper Midwest and across most areas east of the Mississippi River, with odds for significantly above-normal rainfall reaching 50 to near 70 percent on the Florida Peninsula. Wetter than normal weather is also slightly favored across Hawaii. Meanwhile, subnormal precipitation seems more likely across Texas and adjacent locations as well as the western Rockies, most of the Intermountain West, and the Sierra Nevada. Below normal temperatures are favored across the central and southern Plains and adjacent Mississippi Valley, the Rockies, and the Intermountain West. Southeastern Alaska should also average colder than normal while in Hawaii, neither extreme of temperature is favored.

USDA Crop Progress - 5% of Corn, 4% of Soybeans Left to Harvest; HRW Wheat Rated 44% Good to Excellent as of Nov. 10

OMAHA (DTN) -- Widespread rains last week helped boost winter wheat condition but slowed completion of the U.S. corn and soybean harvests, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Tuesday. The report, which is normally released on Mondays, was delayed this week by the Veterans Day holiday.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest inched ahead 4 percentage points nationally last week to reach 95% complete as of Sunday. That was still 9 points ahead of last year's 86% and 11 points ahead of the five-year average of 52%. Wisconsin farmers still had about 11% of corn left to harvest. An estimated 10% of North Dakota's corn was left to harvest. Missouri had 7% left to harvest. Indiana, Nebraska and South Dakota all had about 6% left to harvest. Iowa had 5% left to harvest, Ohio had 4% left, Illinois had 3% left and Minnesota had 2% left.

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest moved ahead 2 percentage points to reach 96% complete as of Sunday. That was 2 points ahead of last year's 94% and 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 91%. Missouri had 10% of its soybean crop left to harvest. Indiana had 4% left to harvest. Illinois and Michigan had 3% left to harvest, and Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin had 1% left to harvest.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting moved ahead by another 4 points to reach 91% complete nationwide as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year's 92% and 2 points behind the five-year average of 93%. Oklahoma was still significantly behind its average pace at 79% planted versus the state's five-year average of 93%. Texas was also slightly behind average at 81% planted versus the state's average of 85%. Top winter-wheat-producer Kansas' crop was 97% planted, 1 point ahead of the state's average of 96%.

-- Crop development: An estimated 76% of winter wheat had emerged as of Sunday, 3 points behind both last year and the five-year average of 79%. Top winter-wheat-producer Kansas' crop was 84% emerged, 3 points ahead of the state's average of 81%. Oklahoma's crop was 63% emerged, 17 points behind the state's five-year average of 80%. South Dakota's crop, at 75% emerged, was 15 points behind the state's average of 90%. Nebraska's winter wheat crop was also lagging, with emergence estimated at 90% as of Sunday, 7 points behind the state's average of 97%.

-- Crop condition: An estimated 44% of winter wheat that had emerged was in good-to-excellent condition, up another 3 points from 41% the previous week. That trails last year's rating of 47% good to excellent by just 3 percentage points. Eighteen percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, a 5-percentage-point improvement from 23% the previous week.

**

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Systems will bring scattered, mostly light showers to some parts of the country this week with a much larger system poised to bring more moisture and much colder air to the middle of the country next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"A lot of rain has fallen recently across the winter-wheat-growing areas of the country," Baranick said. "That's good news for them, as much of these areas have been in drought recently. Above-normal temperatures will help wheat stay more active and improve conditions in a lot of areas. Coloradoans may not feel that way with the 1-2 feet of snow that fell last week over large parts of the state, though. That will take a while to melt off.

"This week is a little quieter. A system will be spreading showers across the country through Thursday. Many areas will see light rain or nothing at all, but some areas in the Southeast could see some heavier amounts. Drought in Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee could benefit the most.

"Another system moves into the West late this week. It will spin off a smaller low-pressure system into the Northern Plains and southern Canada. Some isolated to scattered showers could occur there. But next week's weather is bound to be more dramatic, as a large system is poised to deepen over the middle of the country. That could significantly increase soil moisture again and bring in some much colder air."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Harvested	95	91	86	84
Soybeans Harvested	96	94	94	91
Winter Wheat Planted	91	87	92	93
Winter Wheat Emerged	76	66	79	79
Cotton Harvested	71	63	64	63
Sorghum Harvested	91	85	90	89

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Winter Wheat	6	12	38	38	6		8	15	36	35	6		7	10	36	39	8

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/12)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/11)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 45 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2232295 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (11/7)

Over the last week, weather systems tracked over the southern Plains and into the Midwest, bringing much-needed precipitation. Some areas of Arkansas and Missouri reported over 10 inches of rain for the week. The active pattern also continued over the Pacific Northwest, with the coastal areas and inland recording 2-4 inches of rain that helped to alleviate dryness. Temperatures over the West were below-normal for the week, by as much as 6-9 degrees in parts of Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The rest of the country had warmer-than-normal temperatures, especially in Texas and into Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama, where they were 9-12 degrees above normal. Many areas that received rain during the period had these rains come on the cusp of record-setting dryness in October, but many records were still set for areas that didn’t receive rain at the end of October and early November.

Northeast

Temperatures were generally 3-6 degrees above normal for much of the Northeast. Dryness continued, with only some portions of northern New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont recording near-normal precipitation. With the continued dryness, drought issues continue to develop, with abnormally dry conditions spreading through much of New York, Pennsylvania and more of New England. Moderate and severe drought conditions spread over more of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland, with extreme drought conditions emerging in southern New Jersey.

Southeast

The week brought some scattered precipitation into portions of Alabama, South Carolina, and eastern Florida, with dryness prominent for much of the rest. Temperatures were generally 4-8 degrees above normal. During the week, short-term dryness continued, following historic flooding in some areas. Abnormally dry conditions spread to all of western North Carolina with moderate drought also expanding in the northeast part of the state. Moderate drought expanded in the coastal areas of South Carolina and into eastern Georgia. Moderate and severe drought expanded over eastern Alabama and in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. New areas of extreme drought emerged in central and southwest Alabama with extreme drought also expanding in northern Alabama. Moderate and severe drought conditions expanded slightly over the coastal areas of Virginia, while abnormally dry conditions spread to the rest of western Virginia.

South

Temperatures were 12-15 degrees above normal over much of the South, with areas of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma 6-9 degrees above normal. Much of Oklahoma and north Texas and Arkansas received significant precipitation, with widespread reports of 800% of normal rain for the week. The dryness continued over much of Tennessee and into northern Mississippi as the active rain patterns brought some rains, but not the significant and widespread rains that were more common in the West. A full category improvement was made over much of Oklahoma and northern Texas and western Arkansas, with extreme drought removed from the region. Extreme drought emerged in southeast Mississippi. Severe drought improved in Louisiana with moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions also improving in southern Louisiana.

Midwest

Most of the Midwest was 9-12 degrees above normal for the week. The coolest temperatures were in the Upper Midwest, where it was only 3-6 degrees above normal. Widespread and significant precipitation arrived in many areas of the Midwest but many of the eastern areas were dry throughout the period. Over 800% of normal rain was recorded in much of southern Missouri and central Iowa and Wisconsin as several rain events moved through this area. There is a wide swath of southern Missouri into northern Arkansas where CoCoRaHS observers reported 10+ inches of rain for the current Drought Monitor period. The rains brought widespread improvements to drought, with full-category improvements through much of Missouri, into most of Iowa and Wisconsin. Drought conditions improved by a full intensity level and some drought was removed completely. Drought eased in central Minnesota and southern Missouri had multiple-category improvements. Moderate drought expanded slightly in western Minnesota, eastern Indiana, and western Ohio. Severe drought expanded over more of northwestern Ohio, while severe drought receded over northern portions of Michigan. Abnormally dry conditions spread through the rest of Kentucky while moderate drought crept into southern portions of the state.

High Plains

Significant rains fell over much of Kansas, into southeast Nebraska and southeast Colorado. Rain and snow fell from portions of eastern Colorado into Wyoming and into the Dakotas too, reversing the trend of very dry conditions. Not all areas were as fortunate, with northeast Colorado, western Nebraska, eastern and southwest South Dakota and northwest North Dakota remaining dry this week. The region was split, with temperatures in the western areas 3-6 degrees below normal, and temperatures 9-12 degrees above normal in much of eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. Much of eastern Kansas saw a full category of improvement this week, with extreme drought being removed from the southeast. Severe drought was removed from far southeast Nebraska. In western North Dakota and in eastern Montana, severe and extreme drought expanded slightly. Some improvements were made to abnormally dry conditions over central to southern Colorado and to moderate drought over northeast Colorado. Moderate drought expanded across central South Dakota this week.

West

Precipitation was scattered over much of the West, with the greatest rain over the Pacific Northwest, where 200% of normal rain was recorded for the week in much of Oregon and Washington. Cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the region with many areas of Nevada, Utah, and Arizona and into western Wyoming 6-9 degrees below normal for the week. Dryness continued to dominate much of Montana with abnormally dry conditions expanding to fill the rest of the state and moderate and severe drought expanding in the west. Abnormally dry conditions spread to the rest of central Utah while moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions improved over much of western Oregon and Washington. Some improvements were made over eastern New Mexico this week as a result of the continued wetter conditions.

Caribbean

No changes were made for Puerto Rico this week.

Generally, wet conditions with heavy scattered showers prevailed across the U.S. Virgin Islands.

On St. Thomas, rainfall totals this week ranged from 0.74 inches at VI-ST-14 (Nadir 0.3E/Tropical Marine) with 6 days missing to 5.72 inches at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie 1.2 NNW). VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West 4.2 WNW) and VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West 1.3N) reported 4.29 inches (2 days missing) and 4.79 inches (1 day missing), respectively. In addition, Cyril E. King AP reported 1.42 inches of rain.

The depth to water level Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on Nov. 5, 2024, was 2.77 feet below land surface, which is a significant decrease in depth to water level as compared with Oct. 22, 2024, when the depth to water level was 10.21 feet. Thus, St. Thomas remained free of drought.

On St. Croix, the weekly rainfall amount ranged from 1.94 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE) to 7.03 inches at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW). Intermediate values included 6.1 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 5.62 inches at VI-SC-25 (Christiansted 4.4W), 5.09 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W), 5.08 inches at VI-SJ-9 (Trunk Bay 0.2 W), 3.34 inches at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9NE), 3.33 inches at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E), 3.12 inches at VI-SC-29 (Frederiksted 2.5 NNE), and 2.66 inches at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE). Also 1.22 inches of rain was observed on Henry Rohlsen AP. Due to the recent rains, the depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on Nov. 5, 2024, was 19.26 feet below land surface. Thus, St. Croix remained free of drought.

On St. John, rainfall amounts reported at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) and VI-SJ-9 (Trunk Bay 0.2 W) were 3.33 and 5.08 inches, respectively. In addition, Rafe Boulon (VI-SJ-3: Windswept Beach) received 2.76 inches of rain. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on Nov. 5, 2024, was 7.00 feet below land surface, which has slightly increased this week as compared to last week, when it was 8.46 feet. St. John remains free of dryness.

Pacific

No changes were made for Alaska this week.

In Hawaii, rains brought some relief, especially on the Big Island, where over 10 inches of rain fell and caused flooding. Conditions improved on the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai. Moderate drought improved on the Big Island and abnormally dry conditions improved on all three islands.

Wet conditions continued across the Marshall Islands this week. Ailinglapalap reported 6.17 inches of rain, remaining free from dryness. This week, Jaluit received 1.71 inches of rain, remaining free of drought. Majuro, Kwajalein, and Wotje reported 3.01, 2.70 and 1.45 inches of rain this week, respectively. Thus, these islands remain drought-free. No depiction was made for Milli and Utirik due to missing data.

Western Micronesia received heavy showers this week. Heavy showers were observed on Yap, Kosrae, Woleai, and Ulithi, reporting 3.77, 3.28, 2.96, and 2.86 inches of rain, respectively, allowing the islands to remain free of drought. Pohnpei, Lukunoch and Nukuoro reported 2.95, 1.64, and 0.09 inches of rainfall this week, respectively. Pingelap reported 4.5 inches of rain this week and improved from abnormally dry to drought-free conditions. On Chuuk, only 0.09 inches of rain (two days missing) was observed this week. However, due to wet conditions that prevailed for the past several weeks, the island remains in normal condition. Kapingamarangi received only 1.0 inches of rain this week, remaining in short-term moderate drought. No depiction was made for Fananu and Utirik due to missing data.

Normal conditions continued across American Samoa. Pago Pago reported 3.56 inches of rain this week, remaining free of drought. In addition, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge observed 0.95 and 0.42 inches of rain this week, respectively.

Wet conditions prevailed across Palau. Heavy scattered showers (2.34 inches of rain) were reported on Palau IAP (Airai) this week, allowing the island to remain free of drought.

Normal conditions prevailed across the Mariana Islands this week. The weekly rainfall total report showed that on Rota and Guam, 1.20 and 1.13 inches of rain was observed this week, respectively. Also, Saipan (IAP, manual gauge) and Saipan (ASOS) received 0.23 and 0.42 inches of rain with one day missing. Thus, these islands remained in near-normal conditions

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, it is anticipated that the wet pattern will continue over much of the southern Plains and into the South, Southeast, and Midwest. The active pattern along the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest will also continue. Greatest precipitation is anticipated over the southern Plains, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, northern Mississippi, southern Georgia, western South Carolina and the Pacific Northwest coast, where 3 or more inches of rain is anticipated. Much of the West will remain dry. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal over much of the West with departures of 10-12 degrees below normal over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Much of the eastern half of the country will be warmer than normal, while areas of the Midwest and South are anticipated to be 10-12 degrees below normal for the week. Hurricane Rafael has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is projected to track westward. It may not make landfall until the middle of next week but could impact the dryness over the South and southern Plains depending on its path.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the probability of above-normal temperatures will be greatest over the eastern half of the United States, especially over the Midwest and into the Southeast. Chances of cooler-than-normal temperatures are greatest over the West, in particular over California and Nevada. Most of the country has a good chance of recording above-normal precipitation during the period, especially over the Pacific Northwest.