This Week's Drought Summary (3/6)

In the last week, a few swaths of precipitation occurred across the country, including the Sierra Nevada, northwest California and western portions of Washington and Oregon. Some high elevation areas of the West received precipitation as well, mostly outside of the desert Southwest. Some areas of the Upper Midwest and Northeast received a quarter of an inch of precipitation to locally over an inch. At the end of the current drought monitoring period (Tuesday morning), a powerful storm system was emerging into the Great Plains, delivering thunderstorms, high winds and wind-driven snow to parts of the Great Plains and Midwest. While some of this precipitation fell overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, most of this precipitation will not be accounted for until next week’s U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) update. Temperatures generally ranged from 5-15 degrees warmer than normal in the Great Plains, with locally warmer readings in the Dakotas and eastern Montana. With some exceptions, temperatures were mostly within 5 degrees of normal across the rest of the Contiguous U.S.

The Southeast U.S. had a mostly dry week, which led to degradations to short- and long-term drought conditions across parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida. Mostly dry weather in the lower Midwest and southern Great Plains led to expansion of ongoing abnormal dryness and drought. Drought coverage and severity also increased in the Southwest and in Hawaii, while short-term abnormal dryness developed in south-central Alaska. Improvements to snowpack in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming and southwest Montana led to some improvements to conditions there.

Northeast

Precipitation amounts this week varied from a quarter inch to locally over an inch from western Pennsylvania and West Virginia through New England, while mostly dry weather occurred elsewhere. Temperatures ranging from 3-6 degrees above normal occurred in parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southeast New York. Temperatures were mostly within 3 degrees of normal elsewhere with some local exceptions. Few changes were made to the USDM depiction this week in the Northeast. Short- and long-term severe drought expanded a bit in central Maryland and adjacent south-central Pennsylvania, where soil moisture conditions continued to worsen alongside decreasing streamflow and increasing precipitation deficits. A small-scale increase in severe drought coverage along the New York-New Jersey border occurred due to decreasing streamflow and increasing precipitation deficits.

Southeast

Temperatures across the Southeast this week were mostly within 5 degrees of normal. Most areas in the region had a dry week. Short- and long-term moderate and severe drought developed or expanded across parts of the Carolinas and eastern Georgia this week, where streamflow and soil moisture dropped amid increased precipitation deficits. Smaller-scale increases in abnormal dryness and moderate drought occurred in Alabama after the dry week. Short-term moderate and severe drought expanded in south Florida, where fire danger indices have increased recently. Some improvements to short-term moderate drought occurred in central Florida occurred following heavy rainfall that fell near last week’s Tuesday morning cutoff.

South

Temperatures across the South this week were mostly warmer than normal, with much of Texas and Oklahoma finishing the week 6-10 degrees above normal. A line of thunderstorms associated with this week’s powerful low-pressure systems produced widespread rain of 0.5-1 inches in central and western Oklahoma and central north Texas, though areas east of there did not receive precipitation from this storm system until after the Tuesday morning data cutoff. Scattered drought degradations occurred in the western halves of Texas and Oklahoma, due to increasing precipitation deficits and locally decreasing streamflow and soil moisture. Groundwater and reservoir levels continued to drop in central Texas in the San Antonio area amid very large precipitation deficits, leading to the development of a small area of exceptional drought. Similar conditions in southwest Texas led to the expansion of exceptional drought along the Rio Grande to the El Paso area.

Midwest

Temperatures in the eastern half of the Midwest region were generally near normal to 5 degrees above normal. In the western half of the region, temperatures from 5-15 degrees above normal were common. A half inch or more of precipitation fell across parts of northern Ohio, north-central Illinois and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while most other areas were relatively dry this week. Growing precipitation deficits, especially in the short-term, combined with low streamflow and soil moisture, led to the expansion and development of moderate and severe drought in northern Missouri, central and northern Illinois and Indiana. Elsewhere in the Midwest, no changes occurred to the USDM this week, though low seasonal snowfall totals in parts of Minnesota are of growing concern as the transition to spring occurs.

High Plains

Temperatures across most of the High Plains were above normal, with most locations east of the Rocky Mountains finishing the week between 9 and 15 degrees warmer than normal. Some precipitation fell in mountainous areas of Colorado and Wyoming, and snow occurred Monday night into Tuesday morning in parts of the northeast Colorado plains into western and central Nebraska. Most of the High Plains region east of the Rocky Mountains did not see any changes to ongoing drought or abnormal dryness, except for southern Kansas, where abnormal dryness expanded in response to unusually dry weather in the last few months. In western Colorado, moderate and severe drought expanded in coverage due to very low snowpack and growing precipitation deficits. Recent precipitation in west-central Wyoming led to localized improvements to drought conditions there.

West

Precipitation fell across higher elevations of California, northern Idaho and western areas of Oregon and Washington this week. For the most part, drier weather occurred elsewhere. Temperatures were warmer than normal in most of the West, with the warmest conditions of 9-15 degrees above normal occurring in the central and eastern plains of Montana. Recent improvements to snowpack in northeast Nevada, Idaho and southwest Montana led to localized improvements to drought conditions. Meanwhile, to the south across Utah, Arizona and New Mexico, this week’s continued dry weather led to widespread drought degradation as short- and long-term precipitation deficits grew amid soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater deficits. Drought conditions are especially bad from Phoenix westward to far southeast California, where exceptional drought developed this week.

Caribbean

Variable rainfall amounts occurred in Puerto Rico this week, with mostly dry conditions prevailing along the north-central coast, while a few locations elsewhere received at least 2 inches of rainfall. Temperatures were mostly a degree or two warmer than normal. Puerto Rico remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.

Neither dryness nor drought exists across the U.S. Virgin Islands, despite near- or slightly below-normal rainfall in recent weeks.  Following last year’s wetness, vegetation remains relatively robust, while depth to groundwater – as shown by a network of U.S. Geological Survey wells – has only recently begun to increase.  February rainfall across the territory, as reported by cooperative and volunteer (CoCoRaHS) observers, generally ranged from 2 to 3 inches on St. Thomas and St. John, and 2 to 4 inches on St. Croix.  Standardized Precipitation Index values are trending in the direction of abnormal dryness, but have not yet reached that threshold.

Pacific

Very low snowpack led to the development of abnormal dryness in south-central Alaska, while abnormal dryness continued in southwest and southeast Alaska. Temperatures ranged from 6 to locally 15 degrees warmer than normal in central, south-central and parts of southeast Alaska. Temperatures were mostly within 3 degrees of normal in southwest Alaska and in the North Slope area.

Mostly warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in Hawaii this week, with many locations finishing the week at least 2-4 degrees above normal. A recent dry spell along with decreasing streamflow in many locations led to expansion and degradation in drought conditions from Oahu eastward, especially on the windward (eastern) sides of the islands.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, there were subtle changes to the previous depiction. In the Federated States of Micronesia, abnormal dryness (D0-S) on Woleai was eradicated by more than 6 inches of rain during the 7-day drought-monitoring period, while moderate drought (D1-S) persisted across Yap and Pingelap. A recent report from Woleai indicated that water tanks are full and vegetation is healthy. Meanwhile, an unconfirmed report from Yap indicated there have been some spot fires. In the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the depiction for Wotje was changed from abnormal dryness (D0-S) to moderate drought (D1-S), due to nearly continuous dryness during the first 2 months of 2025, aside from 2 weeks in February. D1-S was retained for Kwajalein, RMI, where January-February rainfall totaled 3.32 inches. The depiction for Utirik, RMI, was set at D1-S, following the receipt of data from an automated rain gauge. Similarly, automated data from Mili, RMI, showed a February rainfall total of 16.60 inches. In the Marianas, several days of soaking rainfall on Guam and Rota – totaling 3.93 inches during the drought-monitoring period at Guam International Airport and more than 4 inches in several locations – led to improvement from moderate drought (D1-S) to abnormal dryness (D0-S). However, rain remained mostly south of Saipan, where severe drought (D2-S) persisted. Neither dryness nor drought was observed across American Samoa and the Republic of Palau.

Looking Ahead

Through the evening of Monday, March 10, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting parts of coastal and high elevation California, along with portions of the high elevation West to receive 0.75 or more inches of precipitation, though this is mostly expected to miss New Mexico, Montana, northern Idaho, Washington and Oregon. A few other corridors of at least a half inch of precipitation are forecast across northern Nebraska, from southeast Oklahoma to South Carolina and the Florida Panhandle, and in New England. Some areas of the Southeast may receive at least 1 inch of rainfall.

Looking ahead to March 11-15, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation in the northern Contiguous U.S. and strongly favors above-normal precipitation in the western, and especially southwestern, U.S. Below-normal precipitation is favored in most of Texas, especially in far southern reaches of the state. Colder-than-normal temperatures are favored across the West, while warmer-than-normal weather is favored across most of the central and eastern Contiguous U.S.

Crop Progress - State Stories

IDAHO: The average temperatures for February ranged from below normal to slightly above normal for the State. Northern Idaho experienced warm temperatures as a reprieve from heavy snowfall, which caused excessive soil moisture. Crop growth started again, and spring calving started. Warmer than average temperatures melted the snow away in lower to mid elevation fields. Rain and melt events caused rill erosion in susceptible areas. Southwest Idaho received significant precipitation, and snowpack levels were above normal. Hay stocks were sufficient as calving and lambing progressed. There were some reports of lingering snow in fields resulting from multiple snowstorms. Southeast Idaho reported lingering water from significant precipitation throughout the month. Hay supplies remained plentiful. Calving and lambing were in full swing as the weather warmed, following a trend of significant precipitation. Producers also prepared equipment for the spring season. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of February 2025. Topsoil moisture 17% very short, 29% short, 52% adequate, 2% surplus. Subsoil moisture 22% very short, 38% short, 39% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 11% poor, 21% fair, 67% good. Winter wheat, wind damage was 70% none, 22% light, 5% moderate, 3% heavy. Winter wheat, freeze and drought damage 75% none, 16% light, 8% moderate, 1% heavy. Winter wheat, protectiveness of snow cover 18% very poor, 40% poor, 9% fair, 10% good, 23% excellent. Pasture and range condition 26% very poor, 45% poor, 22% fair, 6% good, 1% excellent. Livestock grazing accessibility 62% open, 25% difficult, 13% closed. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 97% fed, 97% last year. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 94% fed, 96% last year. Cows calved 4%, 13% last year. Ewes lambed 3%, 9% last year. February brought cooler temperatures and snowstorms. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for February 27, roughly 41 percent of the State was drought free, compared with 4 percent on January 28. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 24 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 21 percent, severe drought (D2) at 10 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at 4 percent. 

NEVADA: For the week ending March 2, 2025, days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 50% very short, 15% short, 25% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 10% very short, 70% short, 15% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 15% very poor, 50% poor, 20% fair, 10% good, and 5% excellent. As of February 25, the US Drought Monitor showed 78% of the State was not in a drought. Dry conditions continued during February, with little precipitation. Temperatures remained normal. Alfalfa was still dormant. Annual weeds started to germinate. 

OREGON: Temperatures ranged from average to below average across most of the State. Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, and Washington Counties reported sporadic severe weather with wind damage and some local flooding. Erosion manifested in fields with inadequate cover. The weather also significantly pushed pasture and crop growth along with weed competition. These conditions encouraged fertilizing and weed control activities. Benton and Lincoln Counties also experienced a dichotomy of pleasant warm weather and several large storms that brought high winds, downed trees, power outages, and some flooding. Clatsop and Tillamook Counties followed suit with heavy rainstorms and high winds, which caused some structural damage. The grass was greening, and field conditions were saturated as rivers saw bank spillover. Fields in Morrow County had high moisture but were short of being saturated. Deep snow was reported in nearby higher elevations. Lake County experienced a continued trend of heavy precipitations along with freezing temperatures. Livestock producers reported higher than normal mortality rates for newborn livestock due to severe winter weather conditions. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of February 2025. Topsoil moisture 29% short and 71% adequate. Subsoil moisture 41% short and 59% adequate. Pasture and range condition 4% poor, 7% fair, 74% good, 15% excellent. Winter wheat condition 9% poor, 28% fair, 63% good. Hay and roughage supplies 53% adequate and 47% surplus. Stock water supplies 10% short, 57% adequate, and 33% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 94% good and 6% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 93% good and 7% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 85%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 97%. Cows calved 14%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 4%. Ewes lambed-range flock 8%. As of March 2, 2025, snowpack in Utah was 85 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Grand County reported very dry, with little snow and warm conditions. Beaver County reported very poor snowpack, but livestock are doing well, and farmers are starting field work. 

WASHINGTON: The Statewide temperatures for February were mostly below normal to normal for this time of year. Producers in central Washington received much needed precipitation in the form of snow. Crop activity was low, with some acres of orchards and hopyards torn out since the last cropping season. The northeastern region experienced cold weather. The rain melted the valley snow, which helped with soil moisture. Calving had officially begun. The east-central region reported that their winter wheat crop remained in good to excellent condition. February weather was favorable, apart from soil moisture loss due to frozen soil. The southeast region received some precipitation. Most precipitation went into the ground, but some runoff was due to frozen ground conditions. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of February 2025. Cows calved 11%. Ewes lambed 8%. Sheep shorn 14%. Topsoil moisture 30% very short, 34% short, 27% adequate, 9% surplus. Subsoil moisture 33% very short, 37% short, 26% adequate, 4% surplus. Winter wheat condition 16% very poor, 24% poor, 49% fair, 10% good, 1% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 1% very short, 10% short, 73% adequate, 16% surplus. Livestock condition 1% very poor, 2% poor, 19% fair, 73% good, 5% excellent. Stock water supplies 1% very short, 10% short, 81% adequate, 8% surplus. Pasture and range condition 9% very poor, 17% poor, 41% fair, 29% good, 4% excellent. Wyoming received some relief from the ongoing drought conditions during the month of February. Rainfall was scattered and total accumulations varied widely across the State, ranging from a trace to 15 inches across the State during the month of February, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures varied widely across the State during the month, ranging from 15 degrees below average to near normal in the northern half of the State, while the southern half of the State saw temperatures ranging from 3 degrees below average to 6 degrees above average during the month, according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) climate maps for the month of February. Drought conditions improved in Wyoming during February according to the United States Drought Monitor report published for February 25, 2025. The amount of land rated drought free was 4 percent, up 3 percent from the report published January 28, 2025. The amount of land rated abnormally dry covered 20 percent of Wyoming compared to 16 percent January 28. Moderate drought was found in 26 percent of Wyoming, compared to 24 percent on January 28. Severe drought improved to 34 percent, compared to 37 percent on January 28. Extreme conditions improved to 16 percent, compared to 22 percent on January 28. Reports from Platte County indicated receiving little moisture along with high winds during the month, keeping the ground dry which was great for calving and lambing but ruinous for spring planting and winter wheat. Goshen County reporters noted having not received any significant amount of moisture with ongoing severe drought conditions during the month of February. Reports from Lincoln County indicated near median levels of snowpack, temperatures near zero at night and slightly above freezing daytime temperatures, local rivers frozen over and overland flooding, while local ranchers were just starting to calving and lambing.

Farmer Sentiment Rises As Current Conditions Improve on U.S. Farms

Farmer sentiment improved in February as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed to 152, 11 points above a month earlier. An improvement in the current situation on U.S. farms was the primary driver behind the stronger sentiment among producers, as the Current Conditions Index reading of 137 was 28 points above January’s reading. There was relatively little change in producers’ assessment of future prospects as the Future Expectations Indexrose just 3 points in February to 159.  This month’s rise in the Current Conditions Index capped a long climb from the doldrums of late summer and early fall 2024 when the index bottomed out at a reading of 76. A sharp crop price recovery in the last several months, which was augmented by expectations for receipt of disaster payments authorized by Congress, combined with strength in the U.S. livestock sector, contributed to producers’ improved appraisal of conditions on their farms and in the U.S. agricultural sector. Despite the big improvement in the Current Conditions Index, the February Future Expectations Index was still 22 points higher than the current index, suggesting that farmers expect conditions to improve further. The February barometer survey took place from February 10-14, 2025.

The Farm Capital Investment Index jumped 11 points to 59 in February. This month’s rise in the investment index pushed the index 4 points above November’s reading, which was taken just after the fall election. The February index was also the most positive reading of the investment climate provided by farmers since May 2021. Interestingly, this month, it was a stronger appraisal of current conditions that helped push the index up instead of stronger expectations for the future. The February Farm Financial Performance Index reading of 110 was virtually unchanged from the prior month’s value of 111. Although the index changed little compared to January, it still leaves the financial index up sharply compared to last fall when it dipped to a low of just 68.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose modestly in February, reaching 118, which was 3 points higher than in January and 8 points above the December reading. This month’s farmland index was also 3 points higher than a year ago and virtually equal to two years ago. When compared to the very positive readings received in the winters of 2021 and 2022, the index suggests producers are not as optimistic about farmland values in the year ahead as they were in earlier years, but they are noticeably more optimistic than in late summer and early fall 2024.

Each February since the barometer’s inception, the survey has included a question that asks producers, “What is a reasonable annual growth rate expectation you have for your farm over the next 5 years?”. This year, 50% of the respondents said they either have “no plans to grow” (37%) or “plan to exit or retire” (13%), which compares to 52% a year ago who reported having no plans to grow or plan to exit or retire. Since 2016, the percentage of respondents in these two categories has ranged from a low of 43% in 2016 to a high of 61% in 2022. The biggest shift among respondents in the 2025 survey compared to 2024 was a reduction in the percentage of producers in the slow growth category of less than 5% growth and, correspondingly, an increase in the percentage of producers who expect their farm operation to grow by 1) 10 to 15% and 2) more than 15% annually. This year, 19% of respondents chose one of these two high growth rate categories, more than double the 9% who chose one of the rapid growth rate categories in 2024. 

Policies affecting agriculture are on the minds of U.S. farmers. Sixty-two percent of respondents to this month’s survey said that passing a new Farm Bill in 2025 is either important (25% of respondents) or very important (47% of respondents). In a follow-up question, producers were asked which policies or programs will be most important to their farm in the next 5 years. The top choice by February’s respondents was “Trade Policy” (44% of respondents), followed by “Crop Insurance Program” (18% of respondents). U.S. farmers’ concerns about trade policy was also evident when they were asked about the likelihood of a “Trade War” that results in a significant decrease in U.S. agricultural exports. Forty-eight percent of farmers in this month’s survey said they think a “Trade War” is either “likely” (29% of respondents ) or “very likely” (19% of respondents).

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment rose again in February, with a big improvement in farmers’ appraisal of current conditions on their farms providing the impetus for stronger sentiment. Strengthening crop prices, positive returns in the livestock sector and expectations for receipt of disaster payments from USDA all combined to make the current situation on U.S. farms better. The shift in sentiment regarding the current situation on their farms also appeared to encourage more producers to say this is a good time to make large investments in their farm operation. Looking at the Future Expectations Index, it’s clear that producers remain optimistic about the future, although they are concerned about the possible passage of a new Farm Bill in 2025 as well as the likelihood of a trade war breaking out that would adversely affect U.S. agricultural exports.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/4)

March Washington D.C. Preview

Quick Fix — The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee will meet in mid-March, and the Senate will vote on the nomination of Jonathan McKernan to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.   — The tax collector recently laid off around 6,500 workers, and the Trump administration has stressed that employees crucial to the current tax filing season weren’t swept up in the layoffs.   — Republicans in Congress are working to dismantle President Joe Biden’s climate agenda with a series of Congressional Review Act resolutions that will enable them to overturn regulations finalized late in his term.

Agriculture — Rollins takes charge: Brooke Rollins has taken the helm at the Agriculture Department and is supporting the Trump administration’s mission of overhauling the department’s workforce and spending. USDA has terminated thousands of probationary employees across units, including the Forest Service, rural development and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, which is primarily responsible for driving the federal response to the bird flu outbreak at USDA. The department has also paused much of its spending on already-allocated grants, leaving some farmers and agriculture organizations without the money they were promised under federal contracts. Rollins has announced the unfreezing of $20 million and has promised to unleash more, but is studying ways to cut spending and eliminate DEI and climate programs.   — One of Rollins’ first policy moves was to announce a new strategy to respond to the avian influenza outbreak devastating producers and causing egg prices to skyrocket. A key aspect of her plan is to import more eggs from other countries to reduce domestic egg prices, something that’s already ruffling feathers among U.S. producers and GOP lawmakers. The secretary’s strategy also emphasizes biosecurity measures and financial relief for farmers, though it’s unclear whether the money is simply a continuation of funding announced during the Biden administration. USDA is also struggling to rehire some employees who were working on bird flu response but terminated during sweeping layoffs.   — Both chambers of Congress have passed budget resolution plans to jumpstart the reconciliation process, with some potential cuts to agriculture spending a key part of the process. The plan advanced by House GOP leadership calls for substantial reductions to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program as part of $230 billion in agriculture spending cuts. Some House Agriculture Committee Republicans concerned about the budget resolution’s impact on SNAP benefits and farm bill discussions hope the $230 billion mark could be lowered during talks with the Senate, which is looking at closer to $1 billion in agriculture cuts.   — Powerful lobbying groups and voters are applying pressure to top Agriculture Committee lawmakers to hammer out a new farm bill deal this year. Farmers are grappling with high input costs, labor shortages and outdated policies due to Congress’ failure to pass a reauthorization since 2018. Agriculture groups and some farm-state GOP lawmakers are increasingly anxious about Trump’s plans for tariffs and mass deportations, which will threaten U.S. farmers’ international markets and workforce. — Grace Yarrow

Financial Services — Has the worm turned? President Donald Trump entered his second term with a solid labor market, an expanding economy and inflation seemingly under control. One month in, the uncertainty generated by his aggressive tariff threats and planned immigration crackdown — as well as still-elevated prices — has helped dampen consumer sentiment. The Labor Department’s February report on job market conditions, due March 7, will provide an early economic scorecard for the president.   — The Fed meets: The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee will meet in mid-March amid signs that inflation isn’t yet on a path back to the Fed’s 2 percent target, and investors expect policymakers to keep borrowing costs steady. Notably, central bank officials will gather after some of Trump’s tariff deadlines are scheduled to take effect, a move that could put further upward pressure on prices.   — Open regulatory seat: The Fed has a vacancy in its top regulatory post after Michael Barr stepped down from the job on Feb. 28, avoiding a potential legal clash with Trump. It’s not yet clear who, if anyone, Trump will nominate for the vice chair for supervision role. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested last month that he didn’t think the board needed a dedicated regulatory post, which was created by the Dodd-Frank Act.   — New consumer bureau leader: The Senate will vote on the nomination of Jonathan McKernan to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The veteran regulator would be taking over an agency that has been at the center of Trump’s campaign to slash the federal bureaucracy. Advisers from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency embedded with the bureau in early February, and acting CFPB Director Russ Vought ordered staff to halt all work before culling probationary employees. The moves have alarmed some industry insiders who fear the bureau’s work could be upended in the chaos.   — Committee markups: The House Financial Services and Senate Banking committees will hold their first markups of the year prior to Congress’ March recess. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is hoping to mark up bipartisan stablecoin legislation during the week of March 17. Two Democrats have signed onto that bill, which is being led by GOP Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee. House Financial Services is expected to vote on national security and bipartisan bills at a March 5 markup. Congress is also set to vote on resolutions that could roll back Biden-era regulations, including one that put new restrictions on bank mergers.   The National Flood Insurance Program reauthorization is also due March 14 and expected to be another temporary reauthorization, with lawmakers calling for an overhaul this Congress.   — SEC and crypto: The Securities and Exchange Commission will continue pulling back from cryptocurrency lawsuits and investigations, as it has already done with companies like Coinbase and Robinhood. It has yet to unveil its plans for other notable cases, including against Cumberland DRW, Kraken and Binance. As for the agency’s leadership, Paul Atkins — Trump’s pick to serve as chair — is finally nearing a confirmation hearing, with lobbyists expecting the Senate Banking Committee to hold one in early March.   — Crunch time for DOGE: Federal judges are set to more closely scrutinize the Treasury Department’s decision to allow DOGE access to the sensitive systems that control trillions of dollars in payments, which has provoked outrage among Democrats. Judges have already issued preliminary orders restricting that access. But the Treasury Department now faces court-imposed deadlines to turn over documents and other information about how Secretary Scott Bessent decided to allow DOGE to tap into the systems, which contain sensitive financial information of individuals and companies. — Sam Sutton, Katy O'Donnell, Michael Stratford, Jasper Goodman

Tax — The latest on tax cuts: Both the House and the Senate have passed budget resolutions that will allow them to move forward on passing big fiscal packages without Democrats’ assistance in the Senate.   That step wasn’t easy for the House, but now comes the real hard part: Figuring out the details.   Republicans generally agree on the broad strokes of what they want to do on taxes this year, which includes extending the portions of the 2017 Trump tax cuts that expire at the end of the year — including all the current individual rates, an increased standard deduction, a more robust Child Tax Credit and a special deduction for pass-through businesses. Trump also has his own priorities for the tax portion of the package, like eliminating taxes on tipped income.   And all things equal, Republicans generally would like to make all the tax cuts permanent.   — The struggle for Republicans will come in trying to flesh out those bigger-picture ideas. One of the most pressing questions the GOP faces right now is also one deep in the policy weeds — which budget baseline to use as they press ahead with a fiscal package or two that would also seek to boost border security, among other priorities.   Lots of top Republicans prefer a more forgiving baseline known as current policy, which assumes it would cost nothing to extend the temporary parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — making it easier to do without a new expiration date.   But even some GOP lawmakers who want permanent tax cuts believe such an approach is a gimmick and that Republicans should stick with the traditional current law baseline, which finds that it would cost at least $4 trillion to keep the expiring tax cuts.   — Other legislative happenings: The House Ways and Means Committee passed a measure in late February that would roll back a rule on cryptocurrency reporting requirements that was finalized late in the Biden administration.   The rule, which covers decentralized finance brokers, is just one of a number of recent regulations that Republicans want to repeal through the Congressional Review Act, which allows them to avoid a Senate filibuster. The repeal legislation now heads to the House floor, while companion legislation awaits action in the Senate.   — Some bipartisan tidings: Ways and Means also has passed around a half-dozen noncontroversial bills on tax administration already this year, dealing with issues like disaster relief and electronic filing.   Top tax writers in the Senate have released a bipartisan draft bill that would include those measures and other tax administration updates, raising the chances that Congress could enact broader legislation on that topic sometime in the next two years.   — DOGE and the IRS: The tax collector recently laid off around 6,500 workers, just part of a range of firings engineered by Musk’s government downsizing effort. The Trump administration has stressed that employees crucial to the current tax filing season, which began in late January and extends until mid-April, weren’t swept up in the layoffs. Most layoffs were said to have hit the divisions that seek to boost tax compliance among small and large businesses.   Still, Democrats and taxpayer advocates say they’ll be closely watching return and refund statistics from the filing season to see whether there’s any drop-off from previous years. They also have questions about DOGE’s access to IRS systems, even as Trump administration officials assert that Musk’s team cannot see individual taxpayer data. — Bernie Becker

Energy — GOP lawmakers pull the plug on Biden regs: Republicans in Congress are working to dismantle President Joe Biden’s climate agenda with a series of Congressional Review Act resolutions that will enable them to overturn regulations finalized late in his term.   The first resolution to reach Trump’s desk is a measure to eliminate the EPA rule implementing the Inflation Reduction Act’s fee on methane emissions, long a target of Republicans. He is expected to sign it, though GOP lawmakers still plan to repeal the underlying IRA provision through the reconciliation process.   The House also voted to overturn a rule that tightened energy efficiency standards for gas-fired water heaters, while the Senate cleared a measure to quash a rule requiring oil and gas companies to submit archaeological reports on shipwrecks and other cultural resources before they begin drilling.   Lawmakers are also expected in the coming weeks to take up a CRA targeting California’s waiver authority to set its own auto emissions standards. Additionally, Republicans are looking to overturn EPA emissions standards for rubber tire manufacturing and a DOE rule on energy efficiency certification and labeling for certain commercial and consumer equipment.   The Biden administration had finalized most of its consequential climate regulations before the “look back deadline” that subject them to the CRA.   — Clean energy on the chopping block: The rollbacks are an early preview of the larger fight coming later this year as Republicans eye clean energy tax credits and unspent climate funding as pay-fors for their massive reconciliation package.   The subsidies have launched a massive wave of private sector investment in clean energy manufacturing and deployment nationwide. Industry groups are gearing up to defend the credits, which will likely create difficult votes for some GOP lawmakers whose districts have benefited from the dollars. — James Bikales

Employment and Immigration — Slow moving on the labor front: The Labor Department might soon shift out of its holding pattern as Trump’s picks to lead the agency make their way through the Senate confirmation process.   Former Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer cleared the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee at the end of February, and Keith Sonderling, the nominee to serve as her deputy secretary, is set to follow suit Thursday. Both could receive floor votes sometime in March, barring any last-minute snags.   To date, DOL has done relatively little outside of effectuating Trump executive orders that apply across the board, such as ordering staffers back to in-office work, stripping diversity-related language as part of the administration’s wide-ranging crusade against DEI — diversity, equity and inclusion — and culling agency headcount by firing workers on so-called probationary status who lack civil service protections.   The arrival of Chavez-DeRemer and Sonderling could portend big changes since they’ll need to quickly comply with a Trump administration directive to initiate a substantial shrinking of the agency and a move away from aspects of its operations not statutorily required. Already, DOL’s enforcement arm that deals with federal contractors has floated a blueprint to cut as much as 90 percent of its employees, leaving just 50 people in place to police thousands of companies that collectively employ about one-fifth of the U.S. workforce.   Some labor unions and Democratic lawmakers are expressing hope that Chavez-DeRemer could be a bulwark for workers’ interests against corporate power, though any overhaul to DOL could quickly erase any goodwill on that front. — Nick Niedzwiadek

Education — Education funding in limbo: Congress is lurching toward a government shutdown on March 14 if lawmakers don’t continue funding federal programs for the remainder of fiscal 2025. A lapse in funding would pause major functions at the Education Department such as civil rights investigations and grantmaking activities.   In the backdrop of a possible shutdown, the Education Department has cut millions of dollars in grants and contracts at the behest of Musk’s DOGE service. Those slashes to funds have congressional lawmakers concerned about whether the Education Department will distribute dollars appropriated by Congress. The president’s Education secretary pick, Linda McMahon, has said Congress would continue its appropriation duties but has stopped short of saying that the department will maintain its role in distributing funds for various programs as Trump looks to dismantle the agency. — Mackenzie Wilkes

Health Care — One of the most consequential health care stories continues to be Republican efforts to cut Medicaid — a longtime target of conservatives who say the government’s insurance program for low-income and disabled Americans spends too much.   House Republicans may need hundreds of billions in cuts to the program to pay for Trump’s agenda on tax cuts, border security and energy. Beyond doing a better job rooting out fraud in the program, Republicans are considering two policy changes:   Work requirements: Requiring some Medicaid recipients to hold jobs could reduce the rolls substantially by cutting those able to move onto employer-provided insurance and those unable to find work.   State provider taxes: Limiting taxes that states now impose on providers to pay for their share of Medicaid costs would also drive down the federal match.

— What’s ahead: House Republicans adopted their budget resolution last week. That is a first step toward fashioning a reconciliation bill that Senate rules allow to bypass a filibuster. The bill must focus on fiscal matters and might not increase the deficit over a 10-year window. House GOP leaders have asked the Energy and Commerce Committee to find $880 billion in savings, and it will be hard to do that without major cuts to Medicaid. The Senate also plans changes to the House budget resolution that could drive up the cost further. — Pro Health Care Team

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (3/2)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 76 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	956113 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF