This Week's Drought Summary (5/29)

The wet May pattern continued to alleviate or bring an end to drought across the Northeast. Severe to extreme drought persists for central to south Florida although locally heavy showers fell across the east-central Florida Peninsula as the rainy season begins to ramp up. Widespread precipitation (2 inches or more) supported improvements to the Central and Southern Great Plains. During recent weeks, drought developed across portions of southwestern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northwestern Indiana. Short-term drought expanded across the Pacific Northwest and intensified for southern Utah and northwestern Colorado during mid to late May. From May 20-26, above-normal temperatures were limited to the southern tier of the contiguous U.S. 7-day temperatures averaged 4 to 10 degrees F below normal across the Northeast, Corn Belt, and Northern to Central Great Plains. Alaska and Puerto Rico are drought-free, while drought of varying intensity continues for parts of Hawaii.

Northeast

Drought improvement continued into late May as widespread precipitation was observed from New England south to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest precipitation (2 to 6 inches) soaked much of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, supporting the elimination of nearly all of the abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1). However, precipitation amounts were lower across Cape Code and 28-day average streamflows remain below the 20th percentile, supporting long-term drought. Frequent precipitation this month increased soil moisture and 28-day average streamflows across southeastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and northern West Virginia where pockets of 1-category improvements were made. However, the NDMC long-term drought blend and low groundwater support the continuation of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought. Severe long-term drought (D2) was maintained in Baltimore County, Maryland due to the lack of a favorable response in groundwater.

Southeast

A continued wet pattern and soil moisture recovery led to a reduction in abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) for parts of eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. Despite the beneficial precipitation this month, a long-term drought signal characterized by low groundwater support maintaining moderate drought (D1) for parts of northern Virginia. Florida’s rainy season appears to be underway as thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall brought drought relief to east-central portions of the state. However, west-central Florida remained mostly dry which led to a 1-category degradation. Extreme drought (D3) continues to affect southwestern Florida and the Everglades where water levels are very low.

South

Heavy rainfall (2 inches or more) prompted a 1-category improvement to ongoing drought areas of south-central and southeastern Texas. Despite this recent heavy rainfall, levels in the long-term monitoring wells of Bexar and Medina Counties remain at all-time lows. In addition, many of the 28-day average USGS streamflows are below the 5th percentile, supporting the D3-D4 depiction. Since the SPIs dating back 6 months are neutral and considering the major impact is hydrological, the drought impact was changed to long-term only. With drought improvement for northwestern Oklahoma this past week, nearly all of Oklahoma and northern to eastern Texas are drought-free. The Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley are also drought-free with surplus 30 to 90-day precipitation.

Midwest

On May 20 and 21, a low pressure system resulted in a widespread swath of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation from Minnesota southeastward to Wisconsin, leading to 1-category improvements. However, western to southern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and adjacent southwestern Michigan received lower precipitation amounts this past week. Increasing 30-day precipitation deficits and declining soil moisture led to an expansion of moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) for these areas. Northern Missouri has also been on the drier side during the past 30 days which prompted an increase in D0 coverage.

High Plains

From May 24-26, widespread precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) resulted in a 1-category improvement to portions of southwestern South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and northeastern Colorado. Much cooler temperatures accompanied this widespread precipitation which contributed to topsoil moisture recharge. Based on multiple indicators such as the SPI at various time scales and soil moisture, severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought was reduced in coverage across central to western Nebraska along with adjacent areas of southwestern South Dakota. Although precipitation was lighter across southeastern Colorado, SPIs at multiple time scales, soil moisture, and VegDri no longer support any D1. Southern Nebraska and northern Kansas missed out on this past week’s precipitation and a couple of small 1-category degradations were made. A 1-category degradation was also warranted for western Colorado based on 90 to 180-day SPI.

West

Based on 6-month SPI, water-year-to-date (October 1, 2024 to May 26, 2025) precipitation deficits, and 28-day average streamflow, moderate drought (D1) was expanded to include more of southwestern Washington. Increasing 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits, low 28-day average streamflows, and declining soil moisture led to the introduction of D1 to parts of northwestern and northeastern Oregon. The 6-month SPI supported the expansion of severe drought (D2) coverage across southwestern Utah. Although precipitation was light this past week, SPIs dating back 120 days along with more favorable soil moisture indicators led to improvements across southwestern and eastern Montana. Conversely, in northwest Montana, D1 was degraded to D2 based on 120-day SPI and declining soil moisture. To the east of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded to the south of Lake Tahoe due to drier-than-normal conditions since April.

Caribbean

From May 20-26, the heaviest precipitation (more than 2 inches) was observed across northwestern Puerto Rico. During the past 30 days, precipitation averaged at or above-normal with many 28-day average streamflows above the 90th percentile. Therefore, Puerto Rico remains drought-free.

The U.S. Virgin Islands continue to remain free of drought. St. Croix Island received the most precipitation of the three islands, ranging from 0.14” to 1.43” of rain. Water levels rose by 0.2 ft for Adventure 28 Well as a result. Both St. John and St. Thomas received under 0.25” of rain for all CoCoRaHS stations located throughout each island. Because of this, water levels for the Susannaberg DPW 3 and Grade School 3 wells have lowered by approximately 0.6 ft.

Pacific

Frequent precipitation resulted in the removal of lingering abnormal dryness (D0) in southeastern Alaska with only a small D0 area remaining to the north of Anchorage.

No changes were made to Hawaii this week with extreme drought (D3) designated for parts of the Big Island. Moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought are posted for Maui, Molokai, and Oahu. Kauai is mostly drought-free.

Drought severity remains the same for the Republic of the Marshall Islands. However, it appeared that precipitation wasn’t scarce for most islands. Ailingalapalap, Jaluit, and Majuro have received 1.5”, 1.65”, and 2.09” of rain, respectively. Mili and Wotje, on the other hand, have received little rain this week, at 0.24” and 0.31”, respectively. Because of this, they will remain in extreme drought. Majuro could become free of drought and dryness if adequate precipitation continues next week.

Rainfall totals for the Federated States of Micronesia were inadequate for most islands. Islands such as Chuuk Lagoon, Lukunor, and Pingelap have received only 0.33”, 0.1”, and 0.09” of rain, respectively. However, Chuuk and Lukunor have received adequate precipitation in the last few weeks and will remain drought and dryness free. Pingelap remains in severe drought. Higher but also inadequate rainfall totals were recorded for Kapingamarangi, Nukuoro, and Pohnpei, at 1.51”, 1.5”, and 1.65” of rain respectively. Kosrae and Yap received plentiful rain, at 2.73” and 2.43”, respectively. This rain was particularly beneficial for Yap, which is in moderate drought. The Republic of Palau has also received beneficial rain. Koror has received 2.31” of rain while the WSO in Palau received 2.9” of rain.

The Mariana Islands continue to face severe drought. Guam received a 1-category degradation to D3 (extreme drought). Most grassland areas on the island are 80-90% dry. NDVI values ranged between 0.45 and 0.65. Wildfires continue to plague the island even with low winds. However, Guam has received a second instance of rain this month at 0.24”. Rota has received only 0.39” of rain this week. Rota also remains in extreme drought. Saipan has received 0.61” of rain at the Saipan International Airport, while the AMME NPS Saipan has received only 0.22” of rain. Saipan will remain in D2 due to a lack of adequate precipitation.

Meanwhile, there is no shortage of precipitation for the American Samoa. The Pago Pago International Airport received 5.99” of rain this week. A whopping 12.49” of rain fell in the Siufaga Ridge, while the Toa Ridge received 9.02” of rain this week. American Samoa will remain drought and dryness free.

Looking Ahead

A low pressure system and trailing front are forecast to maintain the wet pattern along the East Coast with the Weather Prediction Center depicting 1 to 2 inches of precipitation from the Mid-Atlantic north to England through June 2. Much-needed precipitation (locally more than 1 inch) is expected for the Florida Peninsula. From May 29 to June 2, mostly dry weather is forecast across the Midwest. By June 2, a low pressure system is forecast to develop and bring another round of precipitation to the Northern and Central High Plains. Much above-normal temperatures and potential record heat are predicted to affect California and the Great Basin to end May.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid June 3-7, 2025) favors above-normal precipitation for the Florida Peninsula, Middle to Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Plains. The precipitation outlook leans towards above-normal precipitation for much of the West. Elevated below-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Alaska and Hawaii are favored to be on the wetter side during the first week of June. Above-normal temperatures are favored from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, while below-normal temperatures are more likely throughout the West and Alaska. A slight lean towards above-normal temperatures are forecast for most of Hawaii.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn 87% Planted, Rated 68% in Good-to-Excellent Condition; Soybeans 76% Planted as of May 25

OMAHA (DTN) -- The condition of the U.S. corn crop is 68% good-to-excellent in its first condition rating of the year, according to USDA NASS' weekly Crop Progress report released on Tuesday. The report is normally released on Mondays but was delayed this week due to Memorial Day.

Planting progress and crop development also remain slightly ahead of the five-year averages for both corn and soybeans nationwide, NASS reported.

Winter wheat conditions decreased slightly last week by 2 points, NASS said.

Heavy rainfall has created contrasting conditions across growing regions, benefitting Nebraska, Kansas and the southwestern Plains while causing fieldwork challenges in the South, with drier weather expected for southern areas next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Planting progress: 87% of corn was planted nationwide as of Sunday, 6 points ahead of 81% last year and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 85%. "Top producing corn state Iowa remains ahead of average at 95% complete, while Illinois is 82% planted. Minnesota, Missouri and Nebraska range from 94% to 97% done," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

-- Crop development: 67% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, 12 points ahead of last year's 55% and 7 points ahead of the five-year average of 60%.

-- Crop condition: In its first condition rating of the season for corn, NASS estimated that 68% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition. Only 5% of the crop was rated very poor to poor.

SOYBEANS

-- Planting progress: Soybean planting managed to stay ahead of the average last week with 76% of the crop planted nationwide as of Sunday. That was 10 percentage points ahead of last year's pace of 66% and 8 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 68%. "Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska range from 91% to 92% done," Mantini said.

-- Crop development: 50% of soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, 13 points ahead of last year's 37% and 10 points ahead of the five-year average of 40%.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop condition: 50% of the cop was rated in good-to-excellent condition as of May 25, down 2 points from 52% the previous week and up 2 points from the previous year of 48%. The percentage of the crop rated very poor to poor rose by 1 point from 18% the previous week to 19% last week.

-- Crop development: 75% of winter wheat was headed as of Sunday. That was 1 point below of 76% at this time last year and 5 points ahead of five-year average of 70%. Top winter-wheat-producer Kansas' crop was 93% headed, consistent with this time last year and 6 points ahead of the five-year average.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Planting progress: 87% of spring wheat was planted as of Sunday, consistent with this time last year and 7 points ahead of the five-year average of 80%. "Minnesota is 97% planted, South Dakota is 100% while North Dakota is 84% planted," Mantini said.

-- Crop development: 60% of spring wheat has emerged, 2 points ahead of 58% last year and 7 points ahead of the five-year average of 53%.

-- Crop condition: In its first condition rating of the season for spring wheat, NASS estimated that 45% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide with 18% rated very poor to poor. "Minnesota is 82% good-to-excellent, while North Dakota is just 37% good-to-excellent," Mantini said.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Recent heavy rainfall brought much-needed moisture to parts of the country, benefiting some drought areas while causing planting and fieldwork challenges elsewhere, with a pattern shift expected to dry out southern regions next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Heavy rain moved back into the Central and Southern Plains late last week and has since spread eastward through the South and Southeast," Baranick said. "That heavy rain has been good for some areas like Nebraska, Kansas and the southwestern Plains to increase soil moisture and reduce drought. But for others like eastern Oklahoma and Texas east through the Tennessee Valley, that rain has been unwelcomed and is leading to some issues for some folks including planting or the need to replant as well as disease pressure and delays to fieldwork.

"Another upper-level cutoff low, yes they've been frequent this spring, has moved out into the Midwest and we'll see isolated to scattered showers through the Corn Belt through about Friday, maybe Saturday in the far east, but amounts generally look light. Some moderate amounts may be possible for a few locations. But really, it's again across the South and Southeast that should get in on some more heavy rainfall and potential severe weather. As this low shifts off to the East Coast this weekend, we'll see a drying trend for those southern areas. A little disturbance may bring some isolated showers north to south through the middle of the country, but that will be it. Next week, we are looking to flip the pattern a bit and get the main storm track through northern zones while the south will have a chance to dry out."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Planted	87	78	81	85
Corn Emerged	67	50	55	60
Soybeans Planted	76	66	66	68
Soybeans Emerged	50	34	37	40
Winter Wheat Headed	75	64	76	70
Spring Wheat Planted	87	82	87	80
Spring Wheat Emerged	60	45	58	53
Cotton Planted	52	40	57	56
Cotton Squaring	3	NA	4	4
Sorghum Planted	39	33	41	38
Oats Planted	94	91	92	90
Oats Emerged	81	71	76	75
Oats Headed	29	NA	28	25
Barley Planted	82	75	87	84
Barley Emerged	58	45	60	58
Rice Planted	93	87	95	93
Rice Emerged	82	73	82	77
Peanuts Planted	69	51	65	66
Sunflowers Planted	24	13	17	18

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	1	4	27	56	12		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Winter Wheat	6	13	31	43	7		6	12	30	44	8		6	13	33	40	8
Spring Wheat	3	15	37	43	2		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Rice	1	2	17	65	15		1	2	18	51	28		1	2	17	65	15
Oats	6	8	35	44	7		7	8	35	43	7		4	5	25	58	8
Barley	2	11	44	42	1		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA		2	5	25	62	6

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (5/27)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (5/26)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 89 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	454192 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (5/22)

This week, widespread precipitation impacted much of the U.S., with heavier amounts (exceeding 1 inch) observed from the northern Rockies eastward to the East Coast, and in portions of the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, and southern Alaska. Specifically, much of the High Plains reported 2 to 10 inches of rain, while similar totals (2 to 8 inches) were seen across parts of the South, Midwest, and along the East Coast. This above-normal precipitation supported drought improvements across large portions of the High Plains and Northeast, parts of the Midwest and Southeast, and smaller pockets of the West and South. Conversely, below-normal weekly precipitation occurred in parts of the western U.S., the Midwest, and Southeast, leading to the expansion or intensification of drought and abnormal dryness in western High Plains, eastern West, and parts of the Midwest and Southeast. Temperatures were above normal across much of the U.S. this week. The southern U.S., from Texas to Mississippi, saw temperatures up to 10 degrees F above normal. In contrast, below-normal temperatures, with departures up to 10 degrees F below normal, were observed across much of the West and western High Plains, with the largest departures noted in the Dakotas and interior West.

Northeast

Precipitation fell across much of the Northeast this week, with heavier amounts (1 to 8 inches above normal) observed across much of the region. The greatest weekly rainfall totals (3 to 8 inches) were recorded in portions of West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, resulting in improvements to moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) and abnormal dryness (D0) in these areas. This above-average rainfall justified the removal of severe drought (D2) in West Virginia and eastern Pennsylvania, and reduced severe drought in western Maryland. Moderate drought (D1) was removed from Maine, northeastern Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey, and improved in parts of southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and eastern West Virginia. Abnormal dryness (D0) also improved across much of the region this week. Average temperatures were above normal across the region, with departures ranging between 2 to 8 degrees F above normal. The greatest temperature departures were reported in parts of New York, Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and western Maine.

Southeast

Heavy rains continued across much of the Southeast this week, with rainfall totals 1 to 8 inches above normal. Above-normal weekly rainfall totals, with amounts between 150% to 600% above normal, were observed across much of Virginia and in parts of the Carolinas, Georgia and Alabama. These beneficial rains, alongside improvements in short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow and soil moisture data, supported improvements to moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) and abnormal dryness (D0). Severe drought (D2) was removed from northern Virginia and eastern North Carolina, while moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) were improved across much of the state. Improvements to severe drought (D2) were made along the Carolina Coast, while moderate drought (D1) was improved in these areas. Abnormal dryness was improved across much of Virginia and North Carolina, as well as parts of South Carolina, Georgia, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Conversely, dry conditions across much of Florida resulted in the expansion of moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3) within the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures were near to above normal across the region. The largest temperature departures (6 to 8 degrees F) were observed along the East Coast and in small pockets across the interior Southeast, while near-normal temperatures were reported in small pockets of central Alabama and along the Gulf Coast of the Florida Peninsula.

South

Warmer temperatures dominated the South this week, with departures ranging up to 10 degrees F above normal. However, parts of Texas and Oklahoma observed temperatures near or below normal this week. Precipitation varied across the region this week, with heavier amounts (2 to 8 inches) falling across much of Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, and in parts of Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and small parts of Texas. Unfortunately, not many improvements were made due to rain falling over areas already free of drought and abnormal dryness, but conditions prevent existing drought from expanding or intensifying. Moderate drought (D1) was removed from eastern Tennessee this week, while abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from Mississippi and improved in eastern Tennessee. Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are free of drought and abnormal dryness this week.

Midwest

Above-normal temperatures, with departures ranging between 1 to 8 degrees F above normal, were observed across most of the Midwest this week. The largest temperature departures were observed in pockets of Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky, and northeastern Minnesota. In contrast, temperatures were below normal across much of Minnesota and in parts of Iowa and western Wisconsin. Precipitation was reported across most of the region this week, with the greatest amounts (3 to 6 inches) falling in parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. This above-normal precipitation led to moderate drought (D1) improvements in parts of Minnesota, Missouri, and western Illinois, and abnormal dryness (D0) improvements across western portions of the region. However, precipitation was below normal across much of Wisconsin and in portions of Ohio and in northern parts of Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana, with rainfall totals at 50% or less for the week. Growing precipitation deficits and degrading conditions (indicated by short-term indicators, streamflow, and soil moisture) resulted in the expansion of moderate drought and abnormal dryness in northern and eastern Illinois and western Indiana, while abnormal dryness expanded in northern Minnesota and eastern Indiana.

High Plains

Temperatures varied across the High Plains this week, with departures ranging up to 8 degrees F above normal, while cooler-than-normal temperatures were observed along the western and northern portions of the region. Heavy precipitation fell across much of the region this week, with areas from North Dakota to northern Nebraska reporting weekly precipitation totals between 400% to 600% above normal. These beneficial rains (2 to 8 inches above normal) justified widespread moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3) improvements in the Dakotas and Nebraska. Additionally, improvements of moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) and abnormal dryness (D0) occurred in northern Wyoming and eastern Kansas, where rainfall amounts were up to 3 inches above normal for the week. Conversely, dry conditions resulted in the expansion of extreme drought (D3) in southwest Nebraska and western Wyoming, while severe (D2) and moderate drought (D1) expanded in southern Wyoming and Colorado. Abnormal dryness was also expanded in eastern Colorado this week.

West

Cooler temperatures dominated the West this week, with departures ranging between 1 to 10 degrees F below normal. Much of the interior West experienced temperatures between 4 to 10 degrees below normal. In contrast, above-normal temperatures were observed across the eastern portions of the Southwest and in parts of Montana, eastern Utah, southern Nevada, and northern California. Precipitation varied across the region this week, with beneficial amounts falling in parts of the Southwest and northeastern Oregon. Moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3) were improved in eastern New Mexico, while moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) were trimmed back in western Utah and abnormal dryness (D0) was improved in Oregon. Conversely, below-normal precipitation resulted in the expansion of exceptional drought (D4) in southwestern New Mexico and moderate drought (D1) in northern Montana this week.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico remains drought-free this week based on recent precipitation, vegetation health and soil moisture data.

Rain was plentiful for the U.S. Virgin Islands. St. Croix Island received rainfall ranging from 0.89” to 4.14”, according to CoCoRaHS observations. Water levels for the Adventure 28 well were at 14.1 ft, which was a 0.6 ft increase compared to last week. St. John Island received precipitation totals ranging from 0.26” to 1.52”. The Susannaberg DPW 3 well also rose by 0.6 ft compared to last week. St. Thomas received 2.18” to 2.19” of rain this week. The Grade School 3 well water level was at 2.35 ft. With increasing well water level and plentiful rain, all the U.S. Virgin Islands remain free of drought and dryness.

Pacific

There were no changes to Alaska’s depiction this week.

In Hawaii, while showers were generally focused over windward coasts and slopes, strong trades allowed some showers to spill into leeward areas. Notably, Kauai and Oahu experienced enhanced showers during the first half of the week, leading to improvements on these islands. In contrast, extreme drought (D3) expanded on the Big Island due to missed precipitation and declining streamflows levels and vegetative health.

Most places in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) continue to face drought and dryness with varying levels of severity. Mili continues to be the only island currently not in dryness or drought. Utirik and Wotje continue to have extreme drought. Utirik received its first instance of precipitation of the month last week at 0.39”. Wotje received a much needed 2” of rain, though it is still unclear whether this rain took to the soil or was subject to runoff. Alingalapalap also got some much-needed rain at 2.18” this week.

The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) has received adequate precipitation in most islands. For example, Nukuoro has received 3.68” of rain this week. Kosrae received a whopping 5.28” of rain this week. Pingelap also received much-needed 2.4” of rain this week. On the other hand, places like Chuuk Lagoon and Yap had a much drier week, receiving 0.73” and 0.76” of rain, respectively.

The Republic of Palau also received plentiful rain this week. Koror received 4.05” of rain, while the WSO Palau received a whopping 6.19” of rain. American Samoa received much less rain this week compared to last week. Pago Pago received 1.79” of rain, while the Siufaga and Toa Ridge received 1.22” and 0.76” of rain, respectively. Both Palau and American Samoa overall remain free of drought and dryness.

The Mariana Islands remain in severe drought. Guam received 0.8” of rain this week, with one of these days being the first time in a while it received a wetting rain, at 0.23”. Meanwhile, the situation in Rota is dire. Eyewitness accounts of withering plants and wildfires, along with reports of cattle death from a rancher, highlight extreme drought for Rota. Nevertheless, Rota received 0.83” of rain this week. Saipan received a one-category improvement despite receiving little rain this week. This is due to lower tourism and less planting of crops, which leads to much lower water demand for the island. Saipan INTL Airport received 0.24” this week, while the AMME NPS Saipan received 0.46” of rain.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (May 20–24, 2025), As the medium range period begins Tuesday, a surface low pressure system over the Mid-Mississippi Valley supported by strong upper-level energy will provide ample lift and instability for rain and thunderstorms in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The low is forecast to track east and spread rain and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-Atlantic in particular on Wednesday, and shifting into the Northeast later week as the low pivots northward. Elsewhere, some weak troughing aloft and frontal systems tracking through the Northwest next week could produce rounds of modest precipitation there. Most precipitation should be rain aside from the highest peaks. Warm to hot temperatures are likely across the southeastern U.S. as the subtropical upper ridge reaches the region. Southern Texas in particular will remain hot into Tuesday, with temperatures well into the 100s. The Florida Peninsula should see warm temperatures in the mid 90s. Both areas could see record or near record warm lows and highs. Meanwhile, a trough will promote below normal temperatures across the northern tier, with highs only reaching the 50s in the north-central Plains on Tuesday. As the trough tracks east, cooler than average temperatures are likely in the eastern third of the U.S. under it, moderating temperatures in the South. But upper ridging poking into the southwestern U.S. will raise temperatures to above normal there, expanding east across the Four Corners states by Thursday and into the southern Plains late next week. Highs will be well into the 100s in the Desert Southwest with temperatures nearing 100 in parts of Texas eventually.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid May 25–29, 2025) favors above-normal precipitation across most of the U.S., with near-normal precipitation favored from southern California to Montana, as well as parts of the Midwest, northern New England, and northwest Alaska. Below-normal precipitation favored in portions of the Midwest, from northern Minnesota to northern Michigan. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii, much of the West, and along the Gulf, while below-normal temperatures are favored from the central Plains to the Northeast, and in parts of Alaska.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (5/20)

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn 78% Planted, Soybeans 66% Planted, Winter Wheat Rated 52% Good-to-Excellent as of May 18

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. corn planting progress surged ahead last week, maintaining its lead over the five-year average as farmers continued to make significant fieldwork progress, according to USDA NASS' weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday.

Soybean planting continued ahead of last year's pace and the five-year average.

Winter wheat conditions decreased slightly last week by 2 points, NASS reported.

Widespread rainfall moving through the Corn Belt this week should benefit early crop development despite severe weather risks and cooler temperatures in some areas, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Planting progress: 78% of corn was planted nationwide as of Sunday, 11 points ahead of 67% last year and 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 73%. "Top producing corn state Iowa remains ahead of average at 91% complete, while Illinois sits 3 points behind their five-year average pace," noted DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery.

-- Crop development: 50% of corn was emerged as of Sunday. That's 12 points ahead of last year's 38% and 10 points ahead of the five-year average of 40%.

SOYBEANS

-- Planting progress: Soybean planting stayed ahead of the average pace last week with 66% of the crop planted nationwide as of Sunday. That was 16 percentage points ahead of last year's pace of 50% and 13 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 53%. "Of the 18 states listed in the combined report, only Kentucky and Mississippi remain behind their five-year average planting pace for mid-May," Montgomery said.

-- Crop development: 34% of soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, 9 points ahead of last year and 11 points ahead of the five-year average of 23%.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop condition: An estimated 52% of winter wheat was rated good to excellent as of May 18, down 2 points from 54% the previous week and 3 points ahead at the same time last year of 49%, according to NASS.

-- Crop development: 64% of winter wheat was headed nationwide as of Sunday. That's 3 percentage points behind last year's 67% but 6 points ahead of the five-year average of 58%. Top winter-wheat-producer Kansas' crop was 84% headed, 4 points behind last year at this time and 13 points ahead of the five-year average.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Planting progress: 82% of the crop was planted nationwide as of May 18, 6 points ahead of last year's 76% and 17 points ahead of 65% for the five-year average. Minnesota was the furthest ahead of the average, at 93% planted as of Sunday, 29 points ahead of its average pace of 64%. That was followed by North Dakota at 78% planted, 27 points ahead of its five-year average of 51% for this time of year.

-- Crop development: 45% of spring wheat was emerged as of Sunday, 5 points ahead of last year and 11 points ahead of the five-year average.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Despite recent severe weather in the Ohio Valley, widespread rainfall moving through the Corn Belt this week should help with germination and early crop growth, though cooler temperatures may bring areas of patchy frost, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Well, if the severe weather hasn't caused any damage, the rain should be helping early crop development across a vast area of the country," Baranick said. "Last Friday, May 16, a major severe weather event brought widespread damage across the Ohio Valley. Multiple long-track tornadoes, massive hail over three inches, and pockets of hurricane-force wind gusts tore through the landscape. Much of the crop is too young to face much damage, but equipment and infrastructure damage could have been intense. We've got more rounds of severe weather to go through this week as well. Another system moved into the Plains Sunday night and brought widespread heavy rainfall. That system will produce another round of severe weather across the southeastern Plains into the Ozarks with much of the same risks as last Friday. Then the storm brings those chances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday, May 20, which puts those that saw damage last week at risk of another round this week.

"Despite the severe weather, the rainfall that has and will come with the systems is encouraging for a lot of areas. Nebraska already saw most of the state blanketed with more than an inch of rain from Sunday night. The storm will bring similar amounts throughout the majority of the Corn Belt through Wednesday in the west and Thursday in the east. For some drier areas out there, including Iowa and northern Illinois, the rainfall will help with germination and early crop growth. I would normally say that the heavy rain would limit the remaining planting out there, but so far this spring that hasn't been the case and we're still moving strong. So, this rain should be an overall benefit. Some areas that wouldn't like to see rain though are soft red winter wheat areas in the Midwest and Mid-South, which could have an effect there for the ripening crop in some areas.

"Colder temperatures will be in place all week across the north and will spread to the south behind the early-week system. Though not a large risk of frost, some patchy areas may develop. This is unlikely to have much of an effect even if it happens, as much of the newly planted crop is just emerging. Though for some soybeans, I suppose there may be a small risk in some northern states that planted early."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Planted	78	62	67	73
Corn Emerged	50	28	38	40
Soybeans Planted	66	48	50	53
Soybeans Emerged	34	17	25	23
Winter Wheat Headed	64	53	67	58
Spring Wheat Planted	82	66	76	65
Spring Wheat Emerged	45	27	40	34
Cotton Planted	40	28	42	43
Sorghum Planted	33	26	31	31
Oats Planted	91	82	86	83
Oats Emerged	71	59	68	65
Barley Planted	75	63	76	72
Barley Emerged	45	29	45	42
Rice Planted	87	80	91	87
Rice Emerged	73	64	75	66
Peanuts Planted	51	34	52	50
Sugarbeets Planted	100	91	97	81
Sunflowers Planted	13	NA	9	6

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National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Winter Wheat	6	12	30	44	8		6	12	28	46	8		5	13	33	42	7
Rice	1	2	18	51	28		1	1	21	49	28		NA	1	17	69	13
Oats	7	8	35	43	7		7	9	37	41	6		4	6	26	57	7