Friday, August 29, 2025

July Ag Prices Received Index Down 1.4 Percent; Prices Paid Index Up 0.5 Percent

July Prices Received Index Down 1.4 Percent  

The July Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 136.4, decreased 1.4 percent from June but increased 11 percent from July 2024. At 102.7, the Crop Production Index was down 0.3 percent from last month but up 2.5 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 172.5, increased 1.4 percent from June and 13 percent from July last year. Producers received lower prices during July for broilers, grapes, corn, and milk but higher prices for lettuce, turkeys, hogs, and market eggs. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In July, there was decreased marketing of cattle, milk, broilers, and oranges and increased monthly movement for grapes, wheat, hay, and cotton. 

July Prices Paid Index Up 0.5 Percent  

The July Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 150.8, is up 0.5 percent from June 2025 and 7.9 percent from July 2024. Higher prices for feeder cattle, milk cows, diesel, and nitrogen more than offset lower prices for concentrates, complete feeds, feeder pigs, and feed grains. 




Thursday, August 28, 2025

This Week's Drought Summary (8/28)

On August 21, Hurricane Erin passed about 200 miles east of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, with minimal weather impacts aside from gusty winds along portions of the Atlantic Seaboard. A peak northerly wind gust to 43 mph was clocked on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. More broadly, Erin resulted in an extended period of Atlantic coastal impacts, such as life-threatening surf and higher-than-normal tides. Meanwhile, patchy downpours maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture in much of the upper Midwest, while locally heavy showers dotted the central and southern Plains and the lower Southeast. However, mostly dry weather in many other areas across the central and eastern U.S. led to declining topsoil moisture reserves, especially where combined with late-summer heat. Cooler air arrived, however, late in the drought-monitoring period, starting in the North and soon reaching all areas east of the Rockies but the northern High Plains and the Deep South. Meanwhile in the West, hot, mostly dry weather prevailed until late in the period, when shower activity increased and began to spread northward..



Northeast

Aside from a band of rain across parts of New York and Pennsylvania into southern New England, mostly dry weather prevailed. Consequently, moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) worsened across northern New England, extending into northern New York. On the other side of the rain band, abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in West Virginia and environs. On August 24, topsoil moisture in agricultural areas was rated at least 55% very short to short in all six New England States, as well as New York, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Southeast

Showery weather allowed for mostly improving conditions in a region with an already small drought footprint. As the monitoring period began, drought covered just over 3 percent of the Southeastern region. Some of the heaviest rain fell from Florida’s Gulf Coast northward to coastal South Carolina. Downtown Charleston, South Carolina, received 8.05 inches of rain on August 22-23.

South

Flash-drought conditions across the mid-South contrasted with the arrival of heavy rain in Oklahoma and neighboring areas. On August 24, prior to the heavy rain, statewide topsoil moisture was rated 60% very short to short in Texas, along with 53% in Oklahoma. Portions of central and northwestern Oklahoma received 3 to 6 inches of rain during the drought-monitoring period. Meanwhile, topsoil moisture was rated more than one-half very short to short on August 24 in Arkansas (92%), Tennessee (63%), and Mississippi (53%). Aside from eastern Tennessee, southern Mississippi, and west-central Arkansas, where some heavy rain fell, conditions generally worsened across those three states, with broad expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2).

Midwest

Continuing a recent theme, drier-than-normal weather in the southern and eastern Corn Belt generally contrasted with locally heavy showers (and ample soil moisture reserves) farther north and west. By August 24, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated statewide topsoil moisture at least one-half very short to short in Kentucky (66%), Michigan (55%), and Ohio (51%). Statewide values were above 40% very short to short in Illinois and Indiana. Despite a turn toward cooler weather, coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) broadly increased from Missouri into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region.

High Plains

The High Plains region experienced a mix of drought improvement and deterioration. The region’s most significant drought exists across western sections of Colorado and Wyoming. On August 24, statewide topsoil moisture—as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture—was rated 70% very short to short in Wyoming. During the drought-monitoring period, the most significant drought improvement occurred in central Colorado, although there were also targeted improvements in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.



West

A hot weather pattern gradually yielded to increasingly cloudy and showery weather. In most areas, however, showers were insufficient to result in significant drought relief, except in central Colorado and environs. Still, there were several episodes of significant weather, including a thunderstorm-fueled haboob on August 25 in Phoenix, Arizona, where high winds (clocked to 70 mph at Sky Harbor International Airport) and near-zero visibility in blowing dust led to travel and electrical disruptions. By August 26, at the end of the drought-monitoring period, shower activity began to shift farther north and east. In the Northwest, where hot, dry weather prevailed for much of the period, there was some drought expansion, with two previously separate areas of severe drought (D2) merging across eastern Washington. Some of the worst agricultural conditions in the country have been noted in recent weeks across Washington, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture reporting that 47% of the state’s rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition on August 24. On the same date, Washington led the U.S. with 57% of its barley and 53% of its spring wheat rated very poor to poor.



Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, mostly tranquil weather returned in the wake of the previous week’s locally heavy showers, which had been associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane Erin. As a result, there were no changes to the Puerto Rican depiction, which included patchy dryness (D0) in eastern and northwestern sections of the commonwealth.

The U.S. Virgin Islands experienced little to no rainfall following the heavy rains from Hurricane Erin last week.

On St. Croix, several weather stations reported no rainfall, including VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W), and VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW). This week, VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE) recorded only 0.14 inches of rainfall (with one day not accounted for), while VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE) reported 0.25 inches. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values for East Hill are currently -1.02 for SPI-1 and -1.38 for SPI-3, indicating a further decline in rainfall conditions. According to the USGS, groundwater levels at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix) dropped to 18.03 feet below the surface on August 26, 2025, an increase from last week’s level of 17.43 feet. As a result, St. Croix has once again entered a moderate short-term drought this week.

On St. Thomas, little or no rainfall was recorded across the island this week. The rainfall totals recorded at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) were only 0.04 inches, while VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N) reported 0.17 inches of rain with 3 days unaccounted for. On August 26, 2025, the depth of the water level in the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas was reported to be 6.81 feet below the land surface, a slight increase compared to last week (5.98 feet). For Cyril E. King Airport, St. Thomas, the SPI-1 and SPI-3 values are -0.14 and -0.8, respectively. In contrast, the long-term SPI values (over six months) showed positive values, indicating that conditions are not in drought. This week, St. Thomas remains drought-free.

This week, St. John recorded minimal rainfall, with only 0.23 inches reported at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) compared to last week’s significant rainfall of 5.44 inches. Additionally, VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach) reported 0.22 inches of rain. As of August 26, 2025, the depth to the water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) measured 12.40 feet below the land surface, indicating a slight increase in depth from last week's measurement of 11.95 feet. The SPI-1 and SPI-3 values at Windswept Beach are 1.15 and 0.26, respectively. Overall, due to the recent rains, St. John remains drought-free.

Pacific

Wetter weather in parts of Alaska further reduced the wildfire threat and dampened some previously dry areas. Precipitation across interior Alaska was particularly heavy on August 24, when Fairbanks received a daily-record rainfall of 1.30 inches. Due to the wet weather, pockets of abnormal dryness (D0) were trimmed or eliminated across interior and northern Alaska.

In Hawaii, seasonably dry weather prevailed, leaving widespread moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) intact and gradually worsening. Some of the most significant drought existed on the Big Island, where Hilo—in an area experiencing moderate drought (D1)—received rainfall totaling just 1.26 inches (13% of normal) during the first 26 days of August. Hilo’s driest August on record occurred in 1971, when 2.66 inches fell. Additionally, year-to-date rainfall in Hilo through August 26 totaled 35.12 inches, less than one-half the normal value of 73.25 inches.

This week, most areas of the Marshall Islands experienced drought-free conditions, while some islands received heavy rainfall. Mili, Ailinglapalap, and Majuro recorded 4.64, 2.94, and 1.52 inches of rain, respectively. In contrast, Kwajalein recorded only 1.02 inches of rain, remaining in short-term abnormally dry conditions. In addition, Utirik reported only 0.53 inches of rain, remaining in short-term moderate drought conditions. There was no available data for Jaluit and Wotje so that no assessment could be conducted for those locations.

Wet weather conditions were observed across the Federated States of Micronesia this week, with heavy rainfall reported on several of the islands. For example, the islands of Kosrae, Pohnpei, Woleai, and Yap received rainfall amounts of 5.96 inches, 4.91 inches, 3.38 inches, and 3.1 inches, respectively. This week, Chuuk Lagoon, Kapingamarangi, Lukunor, and Nukuoro recorded rainfall of 2.3 inches, 0.85 inches, 1.82 inches, and 0.99 inches, respectively. In addition, Pingelap reported only 2.2 inches of rain, allowing the islands to remain drought-free. Data was unavailable for Fananu and Ulithi, preventing any assessment.

Normal weather conditions were reported in American Samoa, with Pago Pago receiving 0.85 inches of rain. Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge recorded 0.89 inches and 0.75 inches of rain this week, respectively. Consequently, American Samoa remains drought-free.

Palau experienced heavy rainfall this week. The Weather Service Office in Airai recorded 4.13 inches of rain, while Koror reported 3.64 inches, although data for one day is missing. This consistent rainfall has kept the island free from drought.

This week, heavy rainfall was recorded across most areas of the Mariana Islands. According to the weekly rainfall report, Guam received 3.45 inches, Rota 3.89 inches, and Saipan 2.92 inches of rain. Additionally, Tinian recorded 1.74 inches, although two days of data are still unaccounted for. As a result, the Mariana Islands are currently experiencing drought-free conditions.

Looking Ahead

A generally cool weather pattern will persist in most areas of the country for the remainder of the month. However, heat will gradually return across the West, with temperatures in parts of the Desert Southwest topping 110°F by the last day of August. East of the Rockies, anomalous warmth should be limited to the northern High Plains and the Deep South, mainly from southern Texas to southern Florida. Meanwhile, much of West will experience a drying trend, although late-month downpours in portions of the central and southern Rockies could lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially on burn-scarred hillsides. Heavy, late-month rainfall (locally 2 to 4 inches or more) may also affect an area stretching from the mid-South to the southern Atlantic Coast. In contrast, little or no rain will fall during the next 5 days from the middle Mississippi Valley into the middle Atlantic States.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for September 2 – 6 calls for the likelihood of below-normal temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., aside from warmer-than-normal weather in northern Maine, peninsular Florida, and the western Gulf Coast region. In contrast, late-summer warmth will dominate the West, except in the central and southern Rockies. Meanwhile, near- or above-normal precipitation across most of the country should contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the Pacific Northwest.





Monday, August 25, 2025

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn Rated 71% Good to Excellent, Soybeans 69% Good to Excellent as of Aug. 24

OMAHA (DTN) -- The condition of the nation's corn crop remained unchanged, while soybean conditions increased slightly, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday.

Both crops also appear to be reaching maturity consistent with their five-year averages, NASS reported.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 83%, equal to last year but 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 84%. Corn dented was estimated at 44%, equal to both last year and the five-year average. Corn mature was pegged at 7%, 3 points behind last year's 10% but equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 71% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, unchanged from the previous week. Eight percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week and below 13% from last year. Iowa corn is rated 84% good to excellent, Nebraska is at 78% and Indiana is at 63%.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 89%, 1 point ahead of last year's 88% and equal to the five-year average. Soybeans dropping leaves were pegged at 4%, 2 points behind last year's 6% and equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 69% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, up 1 point from 68% the previous week and up 2 points from 67% the previous year. Eight percent of soybeans were rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week and 1 percentage point below the previous year's 9%. Seventy-nine percent of soybeans in Iowa were rated good to excellent, while Indiana was at 63% and Illinois at 58%.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Harvest inched ahead 4 percentage points last week to reach 98% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 1 point behind last year's 99% and consistent with the five-year average. Harvest in Montana reached 82% complete, jumping 17 percentage points from 65% the previous week. Idaho and Washington are 92% and 96% complete.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest picked up speed last week, jumping ahead 17 percentage points to reach 53% complete as of Sunday. That was 5 percentage points ahead of last year's pace of 48% and 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 54%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 49% of the crop remaining in fields was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, down 1 percentage point from 50% the previous week and 20 points below last year's 69% good-to-excellent rating. Minnesota has the highest good-to-excellent spring wheat rating at 80%, with North Dakota at 68%. Montana only has a 1% good-to-excellent rating, with 49% rated very poor to poor.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

A cold front brought cooler temperatures and will bring scattered rainfall across most of the country this week, though dry conditions remain a concern for crops in some areas, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"A big fall cold front swept through most of the country over the weekend and will bring on an extended period of cool temperatures for most areas east of the Rockies this week," Baranick said. "That front got hung up in the Central and Southern Plains though, and will be a productive area of rainfall through Thursday before that shifts to the Delta and Southeast for Thursday and Friday.

"A reinforcing shot of cooler air will move through later this week and showers will develop around the Midwest on Thursday as it swings through. But those showers should be spotty and not overly helpful for too many areas.

"Overall dryness in the southern and eastern Corn Belt continue to be an issue for filling corn and soybeans, though the cooler temperatures will help to reduce the overall stress."


National Crop Progress Summary
This Last Last 5-Year
Week Week Year Avg.
Corn Dough 83 72 83 84
Corn Dented 44 27 44 44
Corn Mature 7 3 10 7
Soybeans Setting Pods 89 82 88 89
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 4 - 6 4
Winter Wheat Harvested 98 94 99 98
Spring Wheat Harvested 53 36 48 54
Cotton Setting Bolls 81 73 88 87
Cotton Bolls Opening 20 13 24 22
Sorghum Headed 88 78 89 88
Sorghum Coloring 44 34 47 46
Sorghum Mature 23 18 22 21
Sorghum Harvested 16 - 18 17
Oats Harvested 80 69 76 80
Barley Harvested 56 37 45 57
Rice Headed 96 92 97 95
Rice Harvested 25 17 31 20

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
This Week Last Week Last Year
VP P F G E VP P F G E VP P F G E
Corn 2 6 21 51 20 2 6 21 50 21 5 8 22 49 16
Soybeans 2 6 23 54 15 2 6 24 53 15 2 7 24 54 13
Spring Wheat 4 14 33 43 6 4 14 32 45 5 3 7 21 56 13
Rice 1 3 22 55 19 - 3 22 55 20 - 4 17 64 15
Barley 5 18 35 40 2 3 14 39 42 2 3 11 21 60 5
Cotton 3 10 33 43 11 4 10 31 43 12 12 16 32 34 6
Peanuts - 3 23 62 12 - 3 25 60 12 1 5 30 58 6
Sorghum 3 8 26 47 16 3 7 27 46 17 7 13 32 40 8





Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (8/25)



Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 35 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
  
Total space available:2616398 AF
Total storage capacity:4045695 AF





Thursday, August 21, 2025

This Week's Drought Summary (8/21)

Between Aug. 13–19, 2025, dry and drought conditions were widespread, driven by hotter-than-average temperatures and below normal precipitation across much of the country. Temperatures across the country were mostly 1 to 5 degrees above normal, while isolated areas of North Dakota, Minnesota and California saw below-normal temperatures. Areas in the central High Plains and Midwest, Arkansas, along the Ohio River, central Pennsylvania and New York saw temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Precipitation was mostly near to slightly below normal for much of the country. Along the Pacific Northwest coastline, rainfall was 1 to 3 inches above normal. The Southeast also saw areas of 1 to 3 inches above normal precipitation where thunderstorms dropped heavy precipitation. A series of storms brought above normal rainfall from South Dakota to Lake Michigan, with areas of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northeastern Illinois recording 2 to 5 inches. Storms that brought decent moisture saw improvements across the northern Intermountain West, central High Plains and the western Great Lakes region. In the West, severe to exceptional drought (D2–D4) remained widespread across California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, while hot, dry weather pushed drought to expand in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. These conditions also fueled large wildfires, particularly in California and the Southwest, where dry vegetation and gusty winds created dangerous fire behavior. The High Plains also saw abnormal dryness and drought intensify across Nebraska, Kansas, and the Dakotas as above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall added stress to crops and rangeland. A few localized showers, however, offered minor improvements. In the South, scattered storms brought limited relief to parts of Texas and south-central Tennessee. Along the Tennessee and mid-Mississippi River valleys, flash drought conditions led to widespread intensification and expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1)—particularly in southern Missouri, western Kentucky and Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi and Arkansas. Areas of the Midwest that received heavy rains saw steady or improved conditions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, while continued dryness led to worsening drought in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The Southeast saw mostly stable conditions, though moderate drought and abnormally dry areas persisted in Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the Northeast continued to dry up, with the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D2) across New England.



Northeast

The Northeast grew drier almost everywhere with a continued lack of rainfall that allowed drought to spread. West Virginia saw widespread abnormal dryness (D0) expand across the state, spilling into Pennsylvania and Maryland. Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey all worsened, with new drought conditions appearing around the Chesapeake Bay and northern New Jersey. New York and the New England states also dried out—western New York saw moderate drought (D1) expand, while Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut saw expanding abnormal dryness. In Maine, temperatures were above normal, with Caribou, Maine, in the northeastern corner of the state enduring multiple 90-degree days. Moderate drought (D1) expanded westward into New Hampshire and Vermont as severe drought (D2) was introduced along the southeast coast.

Southeast

Rainfall patterns and temperature swings drove drought changes across the Southeast this week. In Florida, scattered showers brought short-term improvement in Collier and Monroe counties, where drought eased by a category. Much of the Panhandle and Gulf Coast, however, remained abnormally dry (D0). Persistent long-term rainfall deficits, combined with continued summer heat, kept much of southern Florida locked in moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. In Georgia, limited rainfall left much of the state still dry, with abnormal dryness (D0) lingering in the southwest, north-central, and northeast counties. With hot and humid weather, Alabama saw moderate drought (D1) expand in the northeast and west-central parts of the state, even though central counties saw enough rain to hold steady. In North Carolina, beneficial rain lifted abnormal dryness in the east. Virginia saw dryness expand in the north and southeast and around the Chesapeake Bay, where below-average rainfall led to expansion of abnormally dry (D0) conditions. Interestingly, this came during one of the coolest early August periods on record for the state, with several cities reporting their lowest average highs in over a century (Cardinal News).

South

The South saw widespread drought expansion over the week, despite scattered thunderstorms that brought brief, localized relief. Texas saw some improvements due to heavy rains and flooding in south-central counties earlier in the month that continued to ease drought there. Temperatures across the region stayed hot and humid, with heat index values topping 100°F in Texas and Oklahoma. Fire danger also crept higher in Oklahoma and Texas, where persistent heat and dry rangelands created favorable conditions for grassfires. Abnormal dryness (D0) formed in the Panhandle and north-central Texas. There was widespread expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought across much of Oklahoma under hot, windy conditions. Arkansas is experiencing a flash drought with conditions deteriorating quickly, with nearly the entire state now abnormally dry (D0) or worse and pockets of severe drought (D2) developing in the northeast and central counties, along with the expansion of moderate drought (D1). Louisiana also saw abnormal dryness (D0) expand in the northwest and in the southeast and into Mississippi. Mississippi saw moderate drought (D1) expand in both the south and northwest, while Tennessee recorded broad expansion of drought in the west, despite some trimming in the south-central counties. Overall, the South ended the week with worsening drought almost everywhere, reinforcing the strain of prolonged heat and limited rainfall.

Midwest

From Aug. 13–19, the southern and eastern parts of the Midwest saw conditions deteriorate, with drought slowly expanding where rainfall was limited. In Missouri, abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) spread in the south and central counties under hot, dry weather. Illinois and Indiana also saw conditions worsen in areas that missed out on thunderstorms, allowing drought to extend east and south. Ohio saw abnormal dryness (D0) expand across the northeast and into the Ohio Valley, reaching toward the West Virginia and Pennsylvania borders, while Kentucky experienced broad expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) in the west and moderate drought (D1) in the south. In Michigan, rainfall helped ease drought in a few western counties, but central areas dried out, leading to new or expanding D1.

High Plains

The High Plains saw a mixed pattern of drought changes between Aug. 13–19. North Dakota improved the most, as widespread storms erased nearly all dryness, leaving only a small pocket in the northeast. South Dakota had patchy outcomes, with rainfall trimming drought in some central and southern counties while western areas remained dry. Nebraska also showed contrasts with severe dryness expanding in the Sandhills, especially in Cherry and nearby counties, while parts of the east improved after storms. Kansas slipped slightly drier, with abnormal dryness spreading into the southwest. Conditions were most concerning in Colorado and Wyoming, where persistent heat and limited rainfall drove drought deeper. In Colorado, drought expanded along the Front Range and southwest into northern New Mexico, while Wyoming saw new extreme drought in the northwest and broader expansion of abnormally dry conditions across central counties. These worsening conditions have fueled wildfire activity, most notably Colorado’s Lee Fire, which has already burned more than 137,000 acres, ranking among the state’s largest, while Wyoming has faced smaller but fast-moving rangeland fires.



West

Hot, dry weather dominated much of the West, fueling widespread drought expansion. Arizona and New Mexico saw severe to extreme drought spread north and east as monsoon rains largely missed these areas. In Utah, drought expanded in the south and along the borders of Colorado and Wyoming. Idaho worsened, with severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought spreading in the southeast and north. Montana was mixed: heavy rains in the northeast allowed drought to ease, but hot, dry weather in the southwest caused drought to intensify. Oregon and Washington saw smaller changes, with some localized improvement in southeast Oregon but worsening conditions in northern Oregon and southern Washington. California remained locked in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought in the southern regions with no major change. The dry conditions have fed several large wildfires: Arizona’s Dragon Bravo Fire has burned over 145,000 acres and California’s Gifford Fire about 130,000 acres. A record-breaking heat wave, with temperatures above 110°F in desert areas and red-flag warnings across California, has heightened fire danger.



Caribbean

From Aug. 12–19, 2025, Puerto Rico saw all moderate drought (D1) in the south to widespread flooding as Hurricane Erin passed just north of the island. The storm’s outer bands dropped 3 to 6 inches of rain, with over 6 inches in some areas like Cayey, quickly erasing dry conditions. Abnormal dry (D0) conditions also improved.

The U.S. Virgin Islands experienced significant impacts from Hurricane Erin, which passed north of the region as a major hurricane this week.

On St. John, the rainfall recorded at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) was 5.44 inches. Additionally, VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach) reported 4.65 inches of rain, improving the abnormal dry condition. As of August 19, 2025, the depth to the water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) was 11.95 feet below the land surface. This marks a significant decrease from last week’s measurement of 13.30 feet. The 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1) at Windswept Beach has also shown a substantial increase from 0.09 last week to 1.6 this week. In addition, the 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month SPI values are positive. Consequently, St. John has improved from an abnormally dry condition to being free of drought this week.

On St. Thomas, heavy rainfall occurred, with reports indicating up to 7 inches in some areas, primarily from outer bands of Hurricane Erin on August 16–17. The rainfall totals varied, measuring 6.30 inches at VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West, 4.2 WNW) and 5.05 inches at VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N). Additionally, VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 4.68 inches this week. For King Airport, St. Thomas, the SPI-1 value is 0.5 (it was -1.13 last week). On August 19, 2025, the depth of the water level in the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas was reported to be 5.98 feet below the land surface. This measurement is significantly lower than the level recorded last week, which was 9.36 feet. Due to the recent heavy rainfalls, St. Thomas is now free of drought.

On St. Croix, the weekly rainfall amount ranged from 0.63 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W) to 1.62 inches at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW). Intermediate values included 1.31 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 0.74 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), 0.65 inches at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE), and 0.66 inches at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE). The SPI-1 value for East Hill, St. Croix, is currently -0.86, compared to -1.38 and -1.21 in the previous two weeks. According to the USGS, groundwater levels at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix) reported 17.52 inches below the surface as compared to 17.43 inches last week. Thus, St. Croix improved to an abnormally dry condition this week.

Pacific

Alaska improved slightly in the interior thanks to rainfall but turned drier in the south.

Hawaii saw worsening dryness on Kauai, Oahu and the Big Island.

This week, most areas of the Marshall Islands experienced drought-free conditions. However, Kwajalein recorded only 0.98 inches of rain, remaining in short-term abnormally dry conditions. In addition, Wotje reported only 0.28 (with four days unaccounted for) to stay in short-term moderate drought. In contrast, some of the islands reported heavy rain this week. For example, Ailinglapalap and Majuro observed 3.91 and 2.45 inches of rain. Jaluit reported only 0.24 with four days missing, but it remained drought-free due to wet conditions in the previous weeks. There was no data available for Mili and Utirik so that no assessment could be made of those locations.

Normal weather conditions have been observed across the Federated States of Micronesia following recent heavy rains. The islands of Kosrae, Lukunor, and Pohnpei received rainfall amounts of 3.81 inches, 2.64 inches, and 4.46 inches, respectively. This week, Chuuk Lagoon, Kapingamarangi, and Nukuoro recorded rainfall of 1.64 inches, 0.74 inches, and 1.34 inches (with one day of data missing), respectively. Pingelap reported only 0.93 inches of rain, with three days of data unaccounted for, but it has remained drought-free due to recent rains in the past few weeks. Additionally, Woleai received 2.73 inches of rain, while Yap received 2.11 inches (with two days of data missing), allowing both islands to remain drought-free. There was no data available for Fananu and Ulithi, preventing any assessment from being made for those locations.

Normal conditions were observed across American Samoa, with Pago Pago reporting 0.68 inches of rain. Additionally, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge recorded 0.53 and 0.54 inches of rain this week, respectively. As a result, American Samoa remains free of drought.

Normal weather conditions were observed in Palau. The Weather Service Office in Palau Airai recorded 1.86 inches of rain, while Koror reported 1.9 inches of rain this week, ensuring the island remains free from drought.

This week, normal weather conditions prevailed across the Mariana Islands. According to the weekly rainfall report, Rota received 2.36 inches of rain, while Guam recorded 2.8 inches. As a result, both islands are currently drought-free. Additionally, Tinian and Saipan received 0.75 inches and 0.7 inches of rain, respectively. Due to the wet conditions in June and July, both islands have also managed to remain free of drought.

Looking Ahead

From Aug. 21 to 26, the heaviest precipitation is forecast along the East Coast, especially from North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England, where amounts may exceed 5 inches, likely tied to a coastal storm system. Pockets of heavier rain are also expected in parts of the central Rockies, High Plains and southern Texas, with localized totals between 2 and 4 inches. Much of the Midwest, Southeast and Southwest are forecast to receive lighter but widespread rainfall, generally between 0.5 and 2 inches. By contrast, the Pacific Northwest and much of California show little to no precipitation expected. Overall, the forecast highlights a wet period for the East Coast and scattered parts of the interior U.S., while the West Coast remains mostly dry.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid Aug. 26-30) shows much of the central and eastern U.S. is expected to be cooler than normal, with the greatest chance for well-below-average temperatures across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. In contrast, warmer-than-normal conditions are favored along the West Coast, especially in the Pacific Northwest and northern California, as well as in Florida, parts of Alaska and Hawaii. Rainfall patterns show a split across the country: wetter-than-normal conditions are likely in the central and southern Rockies, the Southwest and the central Plains, along with parts of Alaska. Drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the interior Northeast. The Southeast, Gulf Coast and parts of the interior West are generally expected to see near-normal precipitation. Overall, the late-August outlook points to a cool and damp stretch for much of the central U.S., warmer weather along the West Coast and in the far South, and a drier setup in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.





Monday, August 18, 2025

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn Rated 71% Good to Excellent, Soybeans 68% Good to Excellent as of Aug. 17

OMAHA (DTN) -- The condition of the nation's corn crop declined slightly, while soybean conditions remained unchanged for the second week in a row, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday.

NASS also reported that just 6% of winter wheat was left to harvest, while the spring wheat harvest was running 7 percentage points ahead of last year's pace.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn silking was pegged at 97%, consistent with last year's pace and 1 percentage point below the five-year average of 98%. Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 72%, equal to last year and 1 percentage point below the five-year average of 73%. Corn dented was estimated at 27%, 1 percentage point behind last year's 28% and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 26%. Corn mature was pegged at 3%, 1 point behind last year's 4% and equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 71% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, 1 point behind the previous week and 4 points ahead of last year's 67%. Eight percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, 1 percentage point above the previous week's 7% and still below 11% from last year. "Iowa and Wisconsin are rated 86% and 82% good to excellent, respectively, with Nebraska at 77% good to excellent," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans blooming were pegged at 95%, 1 point ahead of last year's 94% and consistent with the five-year average. Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 82%, 2 points ahead of last year's 80% and equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 68% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and previous year. Eight percent of soybeans were rated very poor to poor, 1 percentage point above the previous week's 7% and unchanged from the previous year. "Iowa and Wisconsin are each rated 82% good to excellent," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Harvest inched ahead 4 percentage points last week to reach 94% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 2 points behind last year's 96% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 95%. Harvest in Montana reached 65% complete, jumping 25 percentage points from 40% the previous week. Idaho and Washington are 72% and 78% complete.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest maintained a steady pace last week, moving ahead another 20 percentage points last week to reach 36% complete as of Sunday. That was 7 percentage points ahead of last year's pace of 29% and equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 50% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, up 1 percentage point from 49% the previous week and 23 points below last year's 73% good-to-excellent rating. Eighteen percent of spring wheat remains rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week and 13 percentage points ahead of last year's 5%. "Montana is still the poorest rated at 5% good to excellent, with Minnesota at 80% and North Dakota rated 70% good to excellent," Mantini said.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

A cold front will come across the country late this week and weekend, bringing significant temperature drops that will make some northern areas feel like fall and ending the stressful heat elsewhere, with more rain possible next week for drier areas, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Heat built in at the end of last week and rain was relegated mostly to a stalled front across northern areas, which meant that the southern Corn Belt did go through some tough weather last week," Baranick said.

"The northern front will be pushing through the Corn Belt down to the Southeast where it will stall later this week. It's a good thing it will as it will shield the country from the effects of Hurricane Erin, which will stay off the East Coast as it curves back out to sea this week. Showers along that front may be scattered and not hit everybody, but there could be some batches of heavy rain. Where they hit will be important for those areas that are more stressed.

"Another, more potent cold front will sweep across the country late this week and weekend. Precipitation along the front may not be all that impressive, but a significant drop in temperature is forecast behind it, which will make some northern areas feel like fall while erasing the stressful heat elsewhere. A morning low in the 30s can't be ruled out for the Red River Valley of the north this weekend, but frosts would be very difficult to accomplish in August anywhere in the U.S., so that is not really a threat. More rain is in the forecast for next week, which may fall upon those drier areas if the current forecast pans out."


National Crop Progress Summary
This Last Last 5-Year
Week Week Year Avg.
Corn Silking 97 94 97 98
Corn Dough 72 58 72 73
Corn Dented 27 14 28 26
Corn Mature 3 - 4 3
Soybeans Blooming 95 91 94 95
Soybeans Setting Pods 82 71 80 82
Winter Wheat Harvested 94 90 96 95
Spring Wheat Harvested 36 16 29 36
Cotton Squaring 97 93 98 98
Cotton Setting Bolls 73 65 83 80
Cotton Bolls Opening 13 8 18 16
Sorghum Headed 78 65 82 80
Sorghum Coloring 34 29 38 35
Sorghum Mature 18 - 18 19
Oats Harvested 69 55 66 70
Barley Harvested 37 18 28 40
Rice Headed 92 85 93 89
Rice Harvested 17 11 20 15
Peanuts Pegging 96 94 98 97

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
This Week Last Week Last Year
VP P F G E VP P F G E VP P F G E
Corn 2 6 21 50 21 2 5 21 52 20 4 7 22 51 16
Soybeans 2 6 24 53 15 2 5 25 53 15 2 6 24 54 14
Spring Wheat 4 14 32 45 5 5 13 33 44 5 1 4 22 61 12
Rice - 3 22 55 20 - 3 21 54 22 1 3 17 64 15
Barley 3 14 39 42 2 3 14 40 41 2 1 8 22 64 5
Cotton 4 10 31 43 12 7 11 29 43 10 8 18 32 35 7
Peanuts - 3 25 60 12 - 3 23 61 13 1 4 27 62 6
Sorghum 3 7 27 46 17 2 7 25 47 19 6 12 33 42 7




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