Thursday, August 21, 2025

This Week's Drought Summary (8/21)

Between Aug. 13–19, 2025, dry and drought conditions were widespread, driven by hotter-than-average temperatures and below normal precipitation across much of the country. Temperatures across the country were mostly 1 to 5 degrees above normal, while isolated areas of North Dakota, Minnesota and California saw below-normal temperatures. Areas in the central High Plains and Midwest, Arkansas, along the Ohio River, central Pennsylvania and New York saw temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Precipitation was mostly near to slightly below normal for much of the country. Along the Pacific Northwest coastline, rainfall was 1 to 3 inches above normal. The Southeast also saw areas of 1 to 3 inches above normal precipitation where thunderstorms dropped heavy precipitation. A series of storms brought above normal rainfall from South Dakota to Lake Michigan, with areas of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northeastern Illinois recording 2 to 5 inches. Storms that brought decent moisture saw improvements across the northern Intermountain West, central High Plains and the western Great Lakes region. In the West, severe to exceptional drought (D2–D4) remained widespread across California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, while hot, dry weather pushed drought to expand in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. These conditions also fueled large wildfires, particularly in California and the Southwest, where dry vegetation and gusty winds created dangerous fire behavior. The High Plains also saw abnormal dryness and drought intensify across Nebraska, Kansas, and the Dakotas as above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall added stress to crops and rangeland. A few localized showers, however, offered minor improvements. In the South, scattered storms brought limited relief to parts of Texas and south-central Tennessee. Along the Tennessee and mid-Mississippi River valleys, flash drought conditions led to widespread intensification and expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1)—particularly in southern Missouri, western Kentucky and Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi and Arkansas. Areas of the Midwest that received heavy rains saw steady or improved conditions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, while continued dryness led to worsening drought in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The Southeast saw mostly stable conditions, though moderate drought and abnormally dry areas persisted in Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the Northeast continued to dry up, with the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D2) across New England.



Northeast

The Northeast grew drier almost everywhere with a continued lack of rainfall that allowed drought to spread. West Virginia saw widespread abnormal dryness (D0) expand across the state, spilling into Pennsylvania and Maryland. Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey all worsened, with new drought conditions appearing around the Chesapeake Bay and northern New Jersey. New York and the New England states also dried out—western New York saw moderate drought (D1) expand, while Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut saw expanding abnormal dryness. In Maine, temperatures were above normal, with Caribou, Maine, in the northeastern corner of the state enduring multiple 90-degree days. Moderate drought (D1) expanded westward into New Hampshire and Vermont as severe drought (D2) was introduced along the southeast coast.

Southeast

Rainfall patterns and temperature swings drove drought changes across the Southeast this week. In Florida, scattered showers brought short-term improvement in Collier and Monroe counties, where drought eased by a category. Much of the Panhandle and Gulf Coast, however, remained abnormally dry (D0). Persistent long-term rainfall deficits, combined with continued summer heat, kept much of southern Florida locked in moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought. In Georgia, limited rainfall left much of the state still dry, with abnormal dryness (D0) lingering in the southwest, north-central, and northeast counties. With hot and humid weather, Alabama saw moderate drought (D1) expand in the northeast and west-central parts of the state, even though central counties saw enough rain to hold steady. In North Carolina, beneficial rain lifted abnormal dryness in the east. Virginia saw dryness expand in the north and southeast and around the Chesapeake Bay, where below-average rainfall led to expansion of abnormally dry (D0) conditions. Interestingly, this came during one of the coolest early August periods on record for the state, with several cities reporting their lowest average highs in over a century (Cardinal News).

South

The South saw widespread drought expansion over the week, despite scattered thunderstorms that brought brief, localized relief. Texas saw some improvements due to heavy rains and flooding in south-central counties earlier in the month that continued to ease drought there. Temperatures across the region stayed hot and humid, with heat index values topping 100°F in Texas and Oklahoma. Fire danger also crept higher in Oklahoma and Texas, where persistent heat and dry rangelands created favorable conditions for grassfires. Abnormal dryness (D0) formed in the Panhandle and north-central Texas. There was widespread expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought across much of Oklahoma under hot, windy conditions. Arkansas is experiencing a flash drought with conditions deteriorating quickly, with nearly the entire state now abnormally dry (D0) or worse and pockets of severe drought (D2) developing in the northeast and central counties, along with the expansion of moderate drought (D1). Louisiana also saw abnormal dryness (D0) expand in the northwest and in the southeast and into Mississippi. Mississippi saw moderate drought (D1) expand in both the south and northwest, while Tennessee recorded broad expansion of drought in the west, despite some trimming in the south-central counties. Overall, the South ended the week with worsening drought almost everywhere, reinforcing the strain of prolonged heat and limited rainfall.

Midwest

From Aug. 13–19, the southern and eastern parts of the Midwest saw conditions deteriorate, with drought slowly expanding where rainfall was limited. In Missouri, abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) spread in the south and central counties under hot, dry weather. Illinois and Indiana also saw conditions worsen in areas that missed out on thunderstorms, allowing drought to extend east and south. Ohio saw abnormal dryness (D0) expand across the northeast and into the Ohio Valley, reaching toward the West Virginia and Pennsylvania borders, while Kentucky experienced broad expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) in the west and moderate drought (D1) in the south. In Michigan, rainfall helped ease drought in a few western counties, but central areas dried out, leading to new or expanding D1.

High Plains

The High Plains saw a mixed pattern of drought changes between Aug. 13–19. North Dakota improved the most, as widespread storms erased nearly all dryness, leaving only a small pocket in the northeast. South Dakota had patchy outcomes, with rainfall trimming drought in some central and southern counties while western areas remained dry. Nebraska also showed contrasts with severe dryness expanding in the Sandhills, especially in Cherry and nearby counties, while parts of the east improved after storms. Kansas slipped slightly drier, with abnormal dryness spreading into the southwest. Conditions were most concerning in Colorado and Wyoming, where persistent heat and limited rainfall drove drought deeper. In Colorado, drought expanded along the Front Range and southwest into northern New Mexico, while Wyoming saw new extreme drought in the northwest and broader expansion of abnormally dry conditions across central counties. These worsening conditions have fueled wildfire activity, most notably Colorado’s Lee Fire, which has already burned more than 137,000 acres, ranking among the state’s largest, while Wyoming has faced smaller but fast-moving rangeland fires.



West

Hot, dry weather dominated much of the West, fueling widespread drought expansion. Arizona and New Mexico saw severe to extreme drought spread north and east as monsoon rains largely missed these areas. In Utah, drought expanded in the south and along the borders of Colorado and Wyoming. Idaho worsened, with severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought spreading in the southeast and north. Montana was mixed: heavy rains in the northeast allowed drought to ease, but hot, dry weather in the southwest caused drought to intensify. Oregon and Washington saw smaller changes, with some localized improvement in southeast Oregon but worsening conditions in northern Oregon and southern Washington. California remained locked in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought in the southern regions with no major change. The dry conditions have fed several large wildfires: Arizona’s Dragon Bravo Fire has burned over 145,000 acres and California’s Gifford Fire about 130,000 acres. A record-breaking heat wave, with temperatures above 110°F in desert areas and red-flag warnings across California, has heightened fire danger.



Caribbean

From Aug. 12–19, 2025, Puerto Rico saw all moderate drought (D1) in the south to widespread flooding as Hurricane Erin passed just north of the island. The storm’s outer bands dropped 3 to 6 inches of rain, with over 6 inches in some areas like Cayey, quickly erasing dry conditions. Abnormal dry (D0) conditions also improved.

The U.S. Virgin Islands experienced significant impacts from Hurricane Erin, which passed north of the region as a major hurricane this week.

On St. John, the rainfall recorded at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) was 5.44 inches. Additionally, VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach) reported 4.65 inches of rain, improving the abnormal dry condition. As of August 19, 2025, the depth to the water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) was 11.95 feet below the land surface. This marks a significant decrease from last week’s measurement of 13.30 feet. The 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1) at Windswept Beach has also shown a substantial increase from 0.09 last week to 1.6 this week. In addition, the 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month SPI values are positive. Consequently, St. John has improved from an abnormally dry condition to being free of drought this week.

On St. Thomas, heavy rainfall occurred, with reports indicating up to 7 inches in some areas, primarily from outer bands of Hurricane Erin on August 16–17. The rainfall totals varied, measuring 6.30 inches at VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West, 4.2 WNW) and 5.05 inches at VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N). Additionally, VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 4.68 inches this week. For King Airport, St. Thomas, the SPI-1 value is 0.5 (it was -1.13 last week). On August 19, 2025, the depth of the water level in the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas was reported to be 5.98 feet below the land surface. This measurement is significantly lower than the level recorded last week, which was 9.36 feet. Due to the recent heavy rainfalls, St. Thomas is now free of drought.

On St. Croix, the weekly rainfall amount ranged from 0.63 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W) to 1.62 inches at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW). Intermediate values included 1.31 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), 0.74 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), 0.65 inches at VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE), and 0.66 inches at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE). The SPI-1 value for East Hill, St. Croix, is currently -0.86, compared to -1.38 and -1.21 in the previous two weeks. According to the USGS, groundwater levels at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix) reported 17.52 inches below the surface as compared to 17.43 inches last week. Thus, St. Croix improved to an abnormally dry condition this week.

Pacific

Alaska improved slightly in the interior thanks to rainfall but turned drier in the south.

Hawaii saw worsening dryness on Kauai, Oahu and the Big Island.

This week, most areas of the Marshall Islands experienced drought-free conditions. However, Kwajalein recorded only 0.98 inches of rain, remaining in short-term abnormally dry conditions. In addition, Wotje reported only 0.28 (with four days unaccounted for) to stay in short-term moderate drought. In contrast, some of the islands reported heavy rain this week. For example, Ailinglapalap and Majuro observed 3.91 and 2.45 inches of rain. Jaluit reported only 0.24 with four days missing, but it remained drought-free due to wet conditions in the previous weeks. There was no data available for Mili and Utirik so that no assessment could be made of those locations.

Normal weather conditions have been observed across the Federated States of Micronesia following recent heavy rains. The islands of Kosrae, Lukunor, and Pohnpei received rainfall amounts of 3.81 inches, 2.64 inches, and 4.46 inches, respectively. This week, Chuuk Lagoon, Kapingamarangi, and Nukuoro recorded rainfall of 1.64 inches, 0.74 inches, and 1.34 inches (with one day of data missing), respectively. Pingelap reported only 0.93 inches of rain, with three days of data unaccounted for, but it has remained drought-free due to recent rains in the past few weeks. Additionally, Woleai received 2.73 inches of rain, while Yap received 2.11 inches (with two days of data missing), allowing both islands to remain drought-free. There was no data available for Fananu and Ulithi, preventing any assessment from being made for those locations.

Normal conditions were observed across American Samoa, with Pago Pago reporting 0.68 inches of rain. Additionally, Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge recorded 0.53 and 0.54 inches of rain this week, respectively. As a result, American Samoa remains free of drought.

Normal weather conditions were observed in Palau. The Weather Service Office in Palau Airai recorded 1.86 inches of rain, while Koror reported 1.9 inches of rain this week, ensuring the island remains free from drought.

This week, normal weather conditions prevailed across the Mariana Islands. According to the weekly rainfall report, Rota received 2.36 inches of rain, while Guam recorded 2.8 inches. As a result, both islands are currently drought-free. Additionally, Tinian and Saipan received 0.75 inches and 0.7 inches of rain, respectively. Due to the wet conditions in June and July, both islands have also managed to remain free of drought.

Looking Ahead

From Aug. 21 to 26, the heaviest precipitation is forecast along the East Coast, especially from North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England, where amounts may exceed 5 inches, likely tied to a coastal storm system. Pockets of heavier rain are also expected in parts of the central Rockies, High Plains and southern Texas, with localized totals between 2 and 4 inches. Much of the Midwest, Southeast and Southwest are forecast to receive lighter but widespread rainfall, generally between 0.5 and 2 inches. By contrast, the Pacific Northwest and much of California show little to no precipitation expected. Overall, the forecast highlights a wet period for the East Coast and scattered parts of the interior U.S., while the West Coast remains mostly dry.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid Aug. 26-30) shows much of the central and eastern U.S. is expected to be cooler than normal, with the greatest chance for well-below-average temperatures across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. In contrast, warmer-than-normal conditions are favored along the West Coast, especially in the Pacific Northwest and northern California, as well as in Florida, parts of Alaska and Hawaii. Rainfall patterns show a split across the country: wetter-than-normal conditions are likely in the central and southern Rockies, the Southwest and the central Plains, along with parts of Alaska. Drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the interior Northeast. The Southeast, Gulf Coast and parts of the interior West are generally expected to see near-normal precipitation. Overall, the late-August outlook points to a cool and damp stretch for much of the central U.S., warmer weather along the West Coast and in the far South, and a drier setup in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.





Monday, August 18, 2025

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn Rated 71% Good to Excellent, Soybeans 68% Good to Excellent as of Aug. 17

OMAHA (DTN) -- The condition of the nation's corn crop declined slightly, while soybean conditions remained unchanged for the second week in a row, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday.

NASS also reported that just 6% of winter wheat was left to harvest, while the spring wheat harvest was running 7 percentage points ahead of last year's pace.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn silking was pegged at 97%, consistent with last year's pace and 1 percentage point below the five-year average of 98%. Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 72%, equal to last year and 1 percentage point below the five-year average of 73%. Corn dented was estimated at 27%, 1 percentage point behind last year's 28% and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 26%. Corn mature was pegged at 3%, 1 point behind last year's 4% and equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 71% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, 1 point behind the previous week and 4 points ahead of last year's 67%. Eight percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, 1 percentage point above the previous week's 7% and still below 11% from last year. "Iowa and Wisconsin are rated 86% and 82% good to excellent, respectively, with Nebraska at 77% good to excellent," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans blooming were pegged at 95%, 1 point ahead of last year's 94% and consistent with the five-year average. Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 82%, 2 points ahead of last year's 80% and equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 68% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and previous year. Eight percent of soybeans were rated very poor to poor, 1 percentage point above the previous week's 7% and unchanged from the previous year. "Iowa and Wisconsin are each rated 82% good to excellent," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Harvest inched ahead 4 percentage points last week to reach 94% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 2 points behind last year's 96% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 95%. Harvest in Montana reached 65% complete, jumping 25 percentage points from 40% the previous week. Idaho and Washington are 72% and 78% complete.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest maintained a steady pace last week, moving ahead another 20 percentage points last week to reach 36% complete as of Sunday. That was 7 percentage points ahead of last year's pace of 29% and equal to the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 50% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, up 1 percentage point from 49% the previous week and 23 points below last year's 73% good-to-excellent rating. Eighteen percent of spring wheat remains rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week and 13 percentage points ahead of last year's 5%. "Montana is still the poorest rated at 5% good to excellent, with Minnesota at 80% and North Dakota rated 70% good to excellent," Mantini said.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

A cold front will come across the country late this week and weekend, bringing significant temperature drops that will make some northern areas feel like fall and ending the stressful heat elsewhere, with more rain possible next week for drier areas, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Heat built in at the end of last week and rain was relegated mostly to a stalled front across northern areas, which meant that the southern Corn Belt did go through some tough weather last week," Baranick said.

"The northern front will be pushing through the Corn Belt down to the Southeast where it will stall later this week. It's a good thing it will as it will shield the country from the effects of Hurricane Erin, which will stay off the East Coast as it curves back out to sea this week. Showers along that front may be scattered and not hit everybody, but there could be some batches of heavy rain. Where they hit will be important for those areas that are more stressed.

"Another, more potent cold front will sweep across the country late this week and weekend. Precipitation along the front may not be all that impressive, but a significant drop in temperature is forecast behind it, which will make some northern areas feel like fall while erasing the stressful heat elsewhere. A morning low in the 30s can't be ruled out for the Red River Valley of the north this weekend, but frosts would be very difficult to accomplish in August anywhere in the U.S., so that is not really a threat. More rain is in the forecast for next week, which may fall upon those drier areas if the current forecast pans out."


National Crop Progress Summary
This Last Last 5-Year
Week Week Year Avg.
Corn Silking 97 94 97 98
Corn Dough 72 58 72 73
Corn Dented 27 14 28 26
Corn Mature 3 - 4 3
Soybeans Blooming 95 91 94 95
Soybeans Setting Pods 82 71 80 82
Winter Wheat Harvested 94 90 96 95
Spring Wheat Harvested 36 16 29 36
Cotton Squaring 97 93 98 98
Cotton Setting Bolls 73 65 83 80
Cotton Bolls Opening 13 8 18 16
Sorghum Headed 78 65 82 80
Sorghum Coloring 34 29 38 35
Sorghum Mature 18 - 18 19
Oats Harvested 69 55 66 70
Barley Harvested 37 18 28 40
Rice Headed 92 85 93 89
Rice Harvested 17 11 20 15
Peanuts Pegging 96 94 98 97

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
This Week Last Week Last Year
VP P F G E VP P F G E VP P F G E
Corn 2 6 21 50 21 2 5 21 52 20 4 7 22 51 16
Soybeans 2 6 24 53 15 2 5 25 53 15 2 6 24 54 14
Spring Wheat 4 14 32 45 5 5 13 33 44 5 1 4 22 61 12
Rice - 3 22 55 20 - 3 21 54 22 1 3 17 64 15
Barley 3 14 39 42 2 3 14 40 41 2 1 8 22 64 5
Cotton 4 10 31 43 12 7 11 29 43 10 8 18 32 35 7
Peanuts - 3 25 60 12 - 3 23 61 13 1 4 27 62 6
Sorghum 3 7 27 46 17 2 7 25 47 19 6 12 33 42 7




Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (8/18)



Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 40 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
  
Total space available:2426973 AF
Total storage capacity:4045695 AF




Thursday, August 14, 2025

This Week's Drought Summary (8/14)

Intensifying short-term rainfall shortages led to expanding and intensifying dryness and drought over much of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Northeast, and parts of the Deep South, southern Plains, central Arizona, and the central Rockies. Meanwhile, a second consecutive week with moderate to heavy precipitation led to areas of improvement in the South Atlantic States from the Carolinas through Florida, across northern reaches of the Rockies and Plains, and over parts of the central Great Plains. The heaviest amounts (8 to 11 inches) doused areas in southeast Wisconsin from central Washington and Ozaukee Counties southward through much of north and central Waukesha and Milwaukee Counties. Meanwhile, 6 to 8 inches were dropped on a broader section of southeast Wisconsin as well as a few patches across southeast South Dakota, the Carolinas Piedmont and adjacent southern Appalachians, the coastal Carolinas, north-central Florida, the central Florida Peninsula, and interior southeast Florida.



Northeast

A few small areas of moderate to heavy rain affected part of upstate New York, southern Vermont, and a few adjacent sites, but most of the Region recorded little or no rainfall. As a result, precipitation deficits persisted or increased. Temperatures averaged a few degrees F above normal near the Great Lakes, in the St. Lawrence Valley, and across central and north New England. Farther south, subnormal temperatures prevailed for a second consecutive week in the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic. The warm and dry conditions across most of the Northeast Region allowed for broad expansion and intensification of dryness and drought. Moderate drought was introduced across southern Maine, continued to affect Cape Cod, and expanded slightly in portions of far western and northern New York. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions broadly expanded across central Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, much of Upstate New York, and several patches across Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and eastern West Virginia. Abnormal dryness in and near Baltimore City remained unchanged from last week. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), topsoils were short or very short of moisture across two-thirds of Maine (up from 3 percent 5 weeks ago), three-quarters of Vermont (from 18 percent in early July), two-thirds of New York (up from 15 percent), 30 percent of Pennsylvania (from 12 percent), and more than half of Maryland (from 22 percent).

Southeast

The rainfall pattern varied sharply across the Region last week. Moderate to heavy rain, with amounts of 3 to 5 inches fairly common in some areas, soaked the Piedmont and adjacent Appalachians of the Carolinas, far southern Virginia, the coastal Carolinas, eastern Georgia, peninsular Florida, and the immediate central Gulf Coast. Lesser amounts from one-half to locally over 2 inches were reported in most other locations across Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and interior southern Louisiana. Other areas were drier with little or no precipitation reported, specifically across northern Virginia, the southernmost Appalachians, northwestern Georgia, and most locations across Alabama and Mississippi. The heavy rains brought an end to abnormal dryness across almost all of the Carolinas in addition to parts of central and southwestern Georgia, and parts of northern and peninsular Florida. In southernmost Florida, extreme drought (D3) persisted in southeastern Broward County, but D0 to D2 conditions improved somewhat in other parts of this area. In contrast, lesser amounts of rain fell in a band from Polk County southward through DeSoto County, where increasing moisture deficits led to the introduction of moderate drought (D1). Meanwhile, D0 conditions persisted and expanded across significant parts of Mississippi and Alabama, with pockets of moderate drought (D1) introduced in some of the drier areas. Most areas across Alabama and Mississippi have seen very low rainfall totals for the past 4 to 5 weeks following at least 1 to 2 months of near- to above-normal rainfall. In combination with somewhat hotter than normal summertime conditions recently, surface moisture depletion has been steadily ramping up in these two states in concert with short-term precipitation deficits, setting the stage for quickly amplifying dryness and drought severity despite near- to above-normal precipitation on multi-month time scales in most locations. New abnormal dryness was also identified on the Virginia portion of the Delmarva Peninsula. According to USDA, topsoil moisture is short or very short across 59 percent of Mississippi (up from 31 percent in early July) and 27 percent of Alabama (up from 9 percent). Meanwhile, in South Carolina, the coverage of short or very short topsoil moisture declined from 35 percent in early July to 22 percent this week.

South

Patches of moderate to heavy rain were observed over southernmost Louisiana and adjacent Texas, much of the Red River (south) Valley, the southern Texas Panhandle, and the northern tier of Oklahoma. Other areas saw scattered to isolated showers that did not markedly improve any extant dryness. Similar to conditions in adjacent Mississippi, above-normal precipitation earlier in the summer ebbed beginning in early July, and significant short-term rainfall deficits have accumulated over the past several weeks although multi-month precipitation totals are generally near or above normal. In conjunction with hot summertime conditions, this has led to quickly-depleting surface moisture over much of Tennessee, Arkansas, and portions of Louisiana. As a result, D0 conditions have been introduced and expanded rapidly. Farther west, less widespread short-term moisture deficits led to several patches of new D0 this week in western Arkansas, Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas. Farther south and west, some D0 and D1 expansion was noted in Deep South Texas, but dryness and drought were essentially unchanged across New Mexico and the remainder of Texas. USDA indicated that short or very short topsoil moisture covered 60 percent of Tennessee and 80 percent of Arkansas (up from 18 and 39 percent, respectively, in early July). The proportion of the Tennessee cotton crop in poor or very poor condition increased from 12 percent in early July to 26 percent last week.

Midwest

Conditions varied substantially across the Region last week. Heavy rains doused much of Iowa and significant parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan last week. A few inches to nearly one foot of rain pounded much of the southern tier of Wisconsin and several swaths in other parts of these areas. Meanwhile, more-scattered moderate to locally heavy amounts were observed in other parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as portions of the western Lower Peninsula of Michigan, the northern and western parts of Missouri, and northwestern Illinois. In contrast, rainfall was light and patchy to isolated at best farther east, including most of Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. Much of the heaviest rain fell on areas already out of dryness and drought, so improvement was limited to parts of northern Minnesota and northwestern Illinois while persisting or increasing dryness was more common farther south and east, especially over southern Missouri and adjacent areas, plus portions of the eastern and southern Great Lakes region. USDA indicated that the proportion of Michigan covered by short or very short topsoil moisture increased from 21 to 52 percent over the last 5 weeks.

High Plains

Rainfall varied in intensity across the High Plains Region once again this week, with abundant rainfall amounts falling on much of North Dakota, southern Nebraska, and some spots in Kansas leading to improved conditions. Some improvement was also noted in part of the southeast Wyoming High Plains. Meanwhile, less precipitation kept dryness and drought approximately unchanged across South Dakota, and allowed for areas of intensification for the second consecutive week in central and western parts of Colorado and Wyoming. A sizeable swath of northwestern Colorado deteriorated into exceptional drought (D4), and D2 to D3 conditions expanded in other areas over and near the higher elevations in western parts of the High Plains Region. Since early July, USDA indicated that the proportion of topsoils short or very short of moisture increased from 20 to 32 percent in Colorado, and from 52 to 63 percent of Wyoming. In Colorado, 19 percent of the corn crop is in poor or very poor condition (up from just 1 percent in early July) while in Nebraska, one-third of the oat crop is in poor or very poor condition (up from 5 percent in early July).



West

Heavy precipitation (one to locally multiple inches in most areas) prompted significant areas of improvement across northern and part of western Montana as well as portions of northern Idaho. Farther south, a few weeks of deficient monsoonal rainfall and above-normal temperatures prompted deterioration in D1 to D3 conditions across southwestern Montana, several swaths across Utah, and a few areas in Arizona and eastern Nebraska. In addition, conditions deteriorated from moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) in part of northwestern Washington. In other parts of the West Region, dryness and drought was unchanged compared to last week. Outside the northern tier of the Region, very little precipitation was reported outside several tenths to about an inch in southeastern Arizona. The proportion of rangelands in poor or very poor condition increased in the last 5 weeks from 32 to 49 percent in Utah, from 22 to 44 percent in Washington, and from 10 to 34 percent in Idaho. Over half of the Washington spring wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition compared to just 17 percent in early July. During this period, the proportion of Montana spring wheat in poor or very poor condition increased from 37 to 47 percent. USDA also indicated that 53 percent of the Washington barley crop is in poor or very poor condition, compared to just 14 percent in early July.



Caribbean

Heavy rainfall affected portions of western Puerto Rico and scattered areas farther east, sufficient to alleviate D0 conditions along some of the southwest coastal areas, plus portions of the eastern and south-central sections of the Commonwealth, including portions of the San Juan metro area. Meanwhile, precipitation deficits continue to build in the southeastern and interior east-central areas. Moderate drought (D1) was introduced in Salinas, Guayama, and eastern Coamo Municipalities, and abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced in several municipalities to the north and northwest.

Another week of hot, generally dry weather in the U.S. Virgin Islands led to no changes in the depiction of abnormal dryness (D0-S on St. John) and moderate drought (D1-S on St. Thomas and St. Croix). Recent rainfall has been slightly heavier on St. John, with an observation site at Windswept Beach receiving 2.20 inches during the first 11 days of August. Windswept Beach’s 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) supports St. John’s D0 designation. Despite St. John’s rain, depth to water at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Susannaberg DPW 3 well increased by August 11 to more than 13.2 feet, which is the greatest value since October 30, 2023, when the territory was emerging from a significant drought. Meanwhile, 1- and 3-month SPI values for various locations on St. Thomas and St. Croix were supportive of D1-S, with increasing depths to groundwater and variable stress on vegetation providing additional evidence of moderate drought.

Pacific

In western Alaska, significant rainfall led to a reduction in D0 coverage there. In southcentral parts of the state, D0 was eliminated in a heavily-populated part of the Anchorage area. Meanwhile, based primarily on 3-month precipitation percentiles, there was a bit of a reconfiguration in the pattern of D0 coverage across the northeast Interior. The fire weather build-up index (BUI) is significantly elevated over the Yukon Flats, so the D0 there is unchanged. Unremarkable conditions on the North Slope and southeast Interior kept D0 there intact as well.

Fairly typical summertime conditions prevailed across the islands, with some rainfall observed in windward areas. As a result, conditions remained generally unchanged except in parts of southern and northeastern Oahu (including Honolulu) where conditions deteriorated from abnormal dryness (D0) into moderate drought (D1). Currently, scattered areas of D0 and D1 exist in the northwestern half of the state while more severe dryness covers most areas to the south and east, with broad areas topping out at D3 in northern interior parts of the Big Island.

In recent weeks, frequent and occasionally heavy showers across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands have eased or eliminated drought concerns, except in portions of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). By August 12, moderate drought (D1-S) in the RMI was limited to Utirik and Wotje, while abnormal dryness (D0-S) was confined to Kwajalein. Elsewhere in the RMI, Majuro’s reservoirs are nearly full, with storage increasing to more than 33.9 million gallons (94% of capacity) by August 12. On that date, neither dryness nor drought was being reported in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Mariana Islands, the Republic of Palau, and American Samoa. In the FSM, Yap has recently been one of the drier locations (less than an inch of rain falling in each of the last 3 weeks), although recent first-hand reports indicated that water supplies remain adequate.

Looking Ahead

From August 14 to 18, heavy rain (2 to locally 5 inches) is forecast in the higher elevations and coastal sections of Washington and Oregon, and also from the eastern Upper Mississippi Valley through much of the Great Lakes. At least several tenths of an inch of rain, with isolated totals near 2 inches, in areas commonly affected by the late summer and autumn monsoon in the Southwest and higher elevations of central Colorado. Similar amounts are anticipated in the Lower Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast states, interior Southeast, South Atlantic States, coastal Northeast, northern Plains, eastern Great Lakes, and lower elevations of Washington and western Oregon. Light to locally moderate amounts potentially approaching an inch are expected in the Ohio Valley and scattered locations across the Rockies. Meanwhile, little or no precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, the northern Rockies, the central and southern Plains, and the Middle Mississippi Valley. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Erin to move northwestward while strengthening into a major hurricane by the end of the period. Most guidance keeps the system east of the Bahamas and the East Coast, but there is a lot of uncertainty in any forecast hurricane track 3 to 5 days in advance. Rough surf and high waves may impact the East Coast and the Bahamas even if the storm stays well out to sea. Generally above-normal should prevail from the Appalachians westward through central and northern sections of the Plains and Rockies, as well as the coastal Northeast. Temperatures should average closer to normal over the Southeast, the mid-Atlantic, and southern portions of the Plains and Rockies. Cooler than normal weather should be confined to the Great Basin and West Coast States.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid August 19-23, 2025) features significant uncertainty in the precipitation outlook. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent are found in much of southern Arizona and the northern High Plains, and nowhere else. There are, however, fairly broad areas with slightly enhanced chances (33 to 40 percent) for wetter than normal wetter; specifically, from the portions of the Southwest typically affected by the late summer and autumn monsoon through the central and northern High Plains, and the northern Great Plains. Similar odds favoring above-normal precipitation also prevail across the southern Great Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the interior Southeast, the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic, and the coastal Northeast. Wetter than normal weather is also slightly favored across the northern half of Alaska. Meanwhile, odds lean towards below-normal rainfall in the Northwest and the northern Intermountain West, the Great Lakes, and the St. Lawrence Valley and adjacent New England. Drier than normal conditions are also favored along the southern tier of Alaska while near-normal amounts are expected across Hawaii. Meanwhile, warmer than normal weather is favored over the western half and southeastern quarter of the Contiguous United States, with odds reaching 60 to 80 percent in the central and northern High Plains, the Rockies, and the Florida Peninsula. Unusually warm weather is also favored across the southern half of Alaska, and Hawaii. Subnormal temperatures are favored over the eastern Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.




Monday, August 11, 2025

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn Rated 72% Good to Excellent, Soybeans 68% Good to Excellent as of Aug. 10

OMAHA (DTN) -- Corn and soybean good-to-excellent condition ratings slightly declined at the national level last week, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday.

While flooding, severe weather and patchy dryness concerns have created some challenges, crop conditions remain favorable for this time of year as a front brings rain to spots that have started to get dry again and temperatures will increase above normal, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn silking was pegged at 94%, 1 percentage point ahead of last year's 93% and 1 percentage point below the five-year average of 95%. Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 58%, equal to last year and the five-year average. Corn dented was estimated at 14%, 2 percentage points behind last year's 16% and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 13%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 72% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, 1 point behind from the previous week and 5 points ahead of last year's 67%. Seven percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week and still below 10% last year. "Iowa and Wisconsin are rated at 86% and 81%, respectively," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans blooming were pegged at 91%, 1 point ahead of last year's 90% and 1 point below the five-year average of 92%. Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 71%, 1 point ahead of last year's 70% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 72%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 68% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from 69% the previous week and consistent with last year. Seven percent of soybeans were rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week and 1 percentage point below last year's 8%. "Louisiana is 92%, while Iowa and Wisconsin are each rated 81% good to excellent," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Harvest moved ahead another 4 percentage points last week to reach 90% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 2 points behind last year's 92% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 91%. Harvest in Montana reached 40% complete, jumping 10 percentage points from 30% the previous week. Idaho and Washington are 50% and 69% complete.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest jumped ahead 11 percentage points last week to reach 16% complete as of Sunday. That was equal to last year's pace and 6 points behind the five-year average of 22%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 49% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, up 1 percentage point from 48% the previous week and 23 points below last year's 72% good-to-excellent rating. "State-by-state results still show Montana and Washington as the worst-rated at 4% and 14% good to excellent, respectively, while Minnesota is 82% good to excellent," Mantini said.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Despite concerns over flooding, severe weather and scattered dry conditions, crops remain in good shape for this time of year as a slow-moving front brings rain to spots that have started to get dry again, though temperatures will increase above normal, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"Some areas of flooding and severe weather have been a concern, as have patchy areas of dryness, but overall, the crop is still looking good for this time of year and the weather is helping more than hurting right now," Baranick said. "A slow-moving cold front has dropped a ton of rain from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Some severe weather and flooding have been noted, but we probably won't see any crop impacts until next week's report, if at all.

"That front will slowly move southeast through the country for the front half of the week, bringing areas of rain to spots that have started to get dry again like Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. But that won't be the only time we get a system to move in. We'll have another front moving into the Northern Plains on Wednesday that will stick around the North-Central states into the weekend before pushing eastward next week with more widespread rain. Ahead of that front, temperatures will increase above normal, and we'll get 90s for highs again in parts of the Eastern Corn Belt. For any areas that don't see rain this week, that could be a concern heading into next week's report."


National Crop Progress Summary
This Last Last 5-Year
Week Week Year Avg.
Corn Silking 94 88 93 95
Corn Dough 58 42 58 58
Corn Dented 14 6 16 13
Soybeans Blooming 91 85 90 92
Soybeans Setting Pods 71 58 70 72
Winter Wheat Harvested 90 86 92 91
Spring Wheat Harvested 16 5 16 22
Cotton Squaring 93 87 95 94
Cotton Setting Bolls 65 55 72 71
Cotton Bolls Opening 8 5 12 10
Sorghum Headed 65 51 72 68
Sorghum Coloring 29 23 31 28
Oats Harvested 55 41 56 59
Barley Headed 98 90 100 100
Barley Harvested 18 5 16 24
Rice Headed 85 75 89 80
Rice Harvested 11 6 12 10
Peanuts Pegging 94 92 95 94

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
This Week Last Week Last Year
VP P F G E VP P F G E VP P F G E
Corn 2 5 21 52 20 2 5 20 53 20 3 7 23 51 16
Soybeans 2 5 25 53 15 2 5 24 54 15 2 6 24 55 13
Spring Wheat 5 13 33 44 5 4 13 35 43 5 1 4 23 59 13
Rice - 3 21 54 22 - 2 20 55 23 1 3 17 61 18
Oats 8 10 24 49 9 8 10 24 49 9 6 5 22 56 11
Barley 3 14 40 41 2 2 14 42 39 3 - 6 25 62 7
Cotton 7 11 29 43 10 5 10 30 45 10 9 16 29 39 7
Peanuts - 3 23 61 13 - 3 24 62 11 1 5 26 60 8
Sorghum 2 7 25 47 19 2 6 26 48 18 6 10 33 43 8




This Week's Drought Summary (8/21)

Between Aug. 13–19, 2025, dry and drought conditions were widespread, driven by hotter-than-average temperatures and below normal precipitat...