Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/20)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/19)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at NaN % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	NaN AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (1/15)

It was a more active week nationwide, with significant precipitation across the central Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Parts of Mississippi and Alabama received more than 5 inches of rain. In the Plains and Midwest, much of the precipitation fell as rain rather than snow due to unseasonably warm temperatures. Portions of the Southwest and central Rocky Mountains also received beneficial rain and snow, slowing drought intensification and leading to localized improvements. Temperatures were warmer than normal across most of the country, with near- to slightly below-normal temperatures limited to the West and Southwest. The largest departures occurred in the upper Midwest and northern Plains, where temperatures were 15–20°F above normal.

Northeast

Temperatures were well above normal, generally 9–12°F above average, with coastal areas 6–9°F above normal. Above-normal precipitation occurred in the northern and southern portions of the region, while Pennsylvania through southern New England remained dry, receiving only 25–50% of normal precipitation. Improvements to moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions occurred in western and central New York. Northern Pennsylvania continued in a wetter pattern, allowing for moderate drought improvement, while southern portions remained dry and saw moderate and severe drought expand. Severe drought improved in northern New Hampshire and Vermont. Moderate drought expanded in eastern Massachusetts but improved centrally, while abnormally dry conditions expanded in southern Connecticut. Southern Virginia remained dry, with moderate and severe drought expanding.

Southeast

Significant rainfall occurred from southern Mississippi through western North Carolina, with areas along and north of this corridor receiving 200–400% of normal precipitation. Temperatures were 9–12°F above normal across most of the region, with central and southern Florida 6–9°F above normal. Drought improvements occurred from west-central Alabama northeastward through western North Carolina. East of this area, drought conditions worsened, with degradations across central and eastern North Carolina, much of South Carolina, central and southern Georgia, southeast Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. Moderate and severe drought expanded across central and southern Florida, with a new area of severe drought in far southern Florida.

South

Temperatures were above normal across nearly the entire region, with departures of 9–12°F above normal in the east and 6–9°F above normal across Texas and Oklahoma. Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and eastern Tennessee, and southeast Arkansas received well above-normal precipitation, with southern Mississippi recording 200–400% of normal. Central and southern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas remained largely dry. Drought improvements occurred across Mississippi, southern Louisiana, and eastern Tennessee, including improvements to severe drought in northwest Mississippi and northern Louisiana. In contrast, drought expanded across much of Arkansas and eastern and southern Texas. Extreme drought expanded across south Texas, with a new area in northeast Texas. Moderate and severe drought also expanded across east Texas into Arkansas, while abnormally dry conditions increased in central Texas and western Oklahoma. Severe drought expanded from eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee.

Midwest

Temperatures were well above normal throughout the region, ranging from 12–16°F above normal in most areas and 8–12°F above normal in the east. Above-normal precipitation fell across much of Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Illinois and Missouri. Much of the precipitation fell as rain, which was unusual for January, and with soils largely unfrozen, infiltration was efficient. Drought conditions improved by one category across much of Wisconsin and Michigan. Moderate and severe drought improved in central Illinois, while moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions improved in northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Moderate drought was also removed out of eastern Iowa. Southern Missouri remained dry, with moderate and severe drought expanding.

High Plains

Above-normal precipitation occurred across eastern Colorado, Kansas, and southeast Nebraska, falling primarily as rain and infiltrating soils due to warm temperatures. Much of the rest of the region remained dry. Temperatures were 10–15°F above normal across most areas, with parts of the Dakotas and eastern Montana 15–20°F above normal. Southeast Colorado was the only area near to below normal. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions improved in southeast Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and parts of south-central Colorado. Drought expanded across eastern Wyoming, west-central South Dakota, and northeast Colorado.

West

Above-normal precipitation occurred across southeast Arizona, western and central New Mexico, parts of Colorado, and western Washington. Temperatures were mixed, with California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico up to 5°F below normal, while northern areas were 5–10°F above normal and parts of central Montana 15–20°F above normal. Most drought changes reflected improvement, including moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions in western Montana and central Idaho, severe drought in western Colorado, and severe to extreme drought in eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, eastern Nevada, and western Utah. However, drought expanded in southwest Idaho and northern Nevada, extreme and exceptional drought expanded in central Colorado, and abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded across much of eastern Wyoming.

Caribbean

For Puerto Rico, abnormally dry conditions were improved this week in the areas that received the most rain and the indicators improved.

This week, rainfall in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) was light to moderate, primarily due to brief trade-wind showers. The region is currently in its dry season, when the subtropical high and strong trade winds keep rainfall low and sporadic.

St. Croix experienced scattered light rain this week. The totals reported were 1.54 inches at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E) and 1.58 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE). VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW) received 0.88 inches, while VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE) reported 0.82 inches. Additionally, VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W) recorded 0.41 inches, and VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE) received 0.57 inches of rainfall. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values for East Hill over the past 1 to 12 months ranged from -0.1 to -1.13, indicating conditions from normal to short-term abnormally dry. In contrast, the 3- to 9-month SPI values for Christiansted Hamilton indicate that the western parts of St. Croix are experiencing drought conditions. As of January 13, 2026, the water level at Adventure 28 Well in St. Croix, USVI, is recorded at 19.04 feet. This marks an increase from 18.98 feet in the previous week. Additionally, this level is higher than it was on the same date last year, January 23, 2025, when it was 16.04 feet. These observations indicate that St. Croix is still experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

This week, Cyril E. King Airport in St. Thomas recorded 0.24 inches of rainfall. The one-month SPI for the airport, which was -1.72 as of January 8, 2026, indicates that conditions are drier than normal. Additionally, the rainfall totals for VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) and VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N) were 0.73 inches and 0.50 inches, respectively, with one day of data missing for the latter. The depth to the water level below the land surface at the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas, USVI, has been steadily increasing since mid-October 2025. On January 13, 2026, the water level reached 7.66 feet, up from last week's 7.50 feet. This persistent increase in the depth of the water level below the land surface indicates the island is in moderate drought conditions.

Similarly, St. John recorded low rainfall, with only 0.57 inches reported at VI-SJ-3 (Windswept Beach). In addition, VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) received only 0.08 inches this week. The depth to the water level below the land surface at the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas, USVI, has been increasing since mid-October. As of January 13, 2026, the water level was recorded at 7.66 feet, up from last week’s 7.50 feet. This rise in water depth indicates that the island is currently experiencing moderate drought.

Pacific

In Alaska, abnormally dry areas expanded in the north and central portions of the state with some reduction in the Kenai Peninsula where there has been an abundance of snow recently.

In Hawaii, a couple days of decent rain over east and southeast Big Island from the Hilo area to South Point, continuing the good rainfall from the Kona low the weekend before. With this continued rain, moderate drought was improved in South Point on the Big Island. Improvement to moderate drought was also made in the South Kohala District of the Big Island (including Honokaia, Puukapu, Nienie, Waimea Town) where water restriction reduced from 25% reduction to 10% due to recent rains refilling the Waikoloa Reservoirs to a satisfactory level.

This week, light to moderate rainfall was observed across most areas of the Marshall Islands, except for Kwajalein, which experienced a more intense rainfall event. Kwajalein recorded a total of 7.15 inches of rain for the week, including 4.97 inches on January 9, 2025. As a result, Kwajalein has improved from abnormally dry conditions to being drought-free. Majuro and Mili received 1.87 inches and 1.51 inches of rain this week, respectively, and remain free of drought conditions. Although Ailinglapalap and Jaluit reported minimal rainfall (0.07 inches and no rainfall, respectively), both islands remain drought-free due to the wet conditions experienced in previous weeks. In contrast, Wotje and Utirik received rainfall amounts of 0.63 and 0.57 inches, respectively, which keep them in short-term abnormally dry conditions.

Rainfall in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) this week exhibited significant spatial variability. This week, Chuuk Lagoon experienced 2.62 inches of rainfall, while Pohnpei received 3.38 inches. Woleai recorded 1.4 inches of rain due to persistent convective activity. The rainfall totals for other locations are as follows: Kapingamarangi received 0.26 inches, Kosrae had 0.43 inches, Lukunor recorded 0.73 inches (with one day of missing data), Nukuoro received 0.36 inches, and Yap recorded 0.78 inches. In contrast, Pingelap reported no rainfall (with three days of missing data), continuing its abnormally dry conditions.

American Samoa is currently in its tropical wet season, experiencing near-normal rainfall conditions this week. Pago Pago recorded 2.18 inches, while Siufaga Ridge measured 0.79 inches and Toa Ridge received 0.65 inches of rain. As a result, American Samoa remains free from drought.

Palau experienced wet weather and heavy rainfall this week. The Weather Service Office in Airai reported 3.48 inches of rain, while Koror recorded 3.51 inches. Consequently, the island is free from drought.

This week, the Mariana Islands experienced intermittent light to moderate rainfall. According to the weekly rainfall report, Guam received 1.96 inches, Rota reported 1.85 inches, and Saipan recorded 0.51 inches. Tinian reported 0.18 inches of rain, although data for four days is still pending. Since January is usually part of the dry season and given the recent wet conditions, the Mariana Islands are currently free from drought.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast. At the end of the period, there could be some coastal precipitation in portions of south and east Texas as well as Louisiana. Temperatures during this time are anticipated to well above normal over the West, with departures of 10-13°F above normal from Nevada into Utah and Wyoming. Cooler-than-normal temperatures will be commonplace over the eastern half of the country, with the greatest departures over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with departures of 10-13°F normal. The below-normal temperatures will migrate all the way into the South, with portions of the Southeast and Florida 6-9°F below normal.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures over much of the Southwest and southern Plains. The best chances of below-normal temperatures will be over the upper Midwest and into the Northeast. From the northern Plains into the Southeast and Florida and areas east of here have the best chances of below normal temperatures. Precipitation is expected to be below normal over Florida and the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest. The best chances of above-normal precipitation are anticipated over the Tennessee Valley as well as over the Rocky Mountains and into the Southwest.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/13)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/12)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 49 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2050750 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (1/8)

The past week featured above-normal temperatures across much of the western half of the U.S. Areas west of the Mississippi River generally experienced near- to above-normal temperatures, with portions of the northern Rocky Mountains running 15–20°F above normal for the week. These warm conditions favored rain over snow, which is critical for winter water supply in the West, and many locations continue to experience a slow start to the snow season.

In contrast, cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the Florida Peninsula, with departures of 5–10°F below normal across southern Florida. Below-normal temperatures were also widespread from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where departures of 5°F or more below normal were common. Parts of New England were particularly cold, with temperatures 10–15°F below normal.

Outside of the West, above-normal precipitation was limited to pockets of the Southeast, Florida, and the Upper Midwest. Much of the West recorded more than 100% of normal precipitation for the week, with large portions of California receiving over 200% of normal.

Northeast

Much of the region experienced a dry week, with the exception of areas downwind of the Great Lakes, where lake-effect snow was significant. Portions of western New York received several feet of snow as snow squalls developed off lakes Erie and Ontario. Nearly the entire region observed below-normal temperatures, with the coldest anomalies in New England, where departures of 9–10°F below normal were common.

Most of the region saw no changes to drought conditions. Improvements to moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions were noted in western New York. Along the Maine coast, recent precipitation led to improvements in extreme drought. Moderate drought improved over northern Pennsylvania due to a wetter pattern.

Conversely, abnormally dry conditions expanded in eastern Massachusetts, while moderate and severe drought expanded across New Jersey and moderate drought extended onto Long Island. The Mid-Atlantic experienced the greatest drought expansion, with severe drought spreading across central Maryland and much of central Virginia. Moderate drought also expanded along the coastal areas of Maryland and Virginia and into southern Delaware.

Southeast

Temperatures were generally above normal across much of the region, with departures of 2–4°F above normal. Exceptions included coastal areas of the Carolinas and much of Florida, where temperatures were 2–4°F below normal, and southern Florida, where departures reached 4–6°F below normal.

Most of the Southeast was dry, with pockets of above-normal precipitation limited to the Florida Panhandle and areas from central Alabama into central Georgia. Severe drought expanded across northeast Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, with severe drought newly introduced into central North Carolina. Moderate drought also expanded in both North and South Carolina.

In Florida, severe drought expanded in the southwest and northeast portions of the state, while moderate drought grew to encompass all of south Florida. Alabama saw expansion of moderate and severe drought across central and southern areas, with abnormally dry conditions increasing along the coast.

South

Nearly the entire region was dry, with only isolated precipitation observed in Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. Temperatures were above normal across most areas, with portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles running more than 12°F above normal.

Drought conditions deteriorated across every state in the region. Moderate drought expanded across northern and southern Mississippi. Central and eastern Tennessee saw expansion of moderate and severe drought, while moderate drought increased in western Tennessee. Moderate and severe drought expanded across much of Louisiana and southern and western Arkansas. Severe drought expanded in northeast and northwest Arkansas and into northeast Oklahoma. Severe and extreme drought spread from southwest into central Oklahoma, while moderate drought continued to fill in across eastern Oklahoma.

Across Texas, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded over much of the Panhandle, while moderate and severe drought grew across east Texas and coastal southeast Texas. Drought conditions continued to intensify in far south Texas.

Midwest

Temperatures were cooler than normal across northern areas and near to above normal farther south. Western Iowa and southwest Minnesota experienced temperatures 9–12°F above normal. Most of the region was dry, though above-normal precipitation occurred in northern and eastern Minnesota, central Wisconsin, and both the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Despite localized precipitation, a generally warm and dry winter has allowed drought to continue developing. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southern Kentucky and along the Indiana border, with a new pocket of moderate drought in southeastern Kentucky. Abnormally dry conditions spread across southern Indiana, while severe and extreme drought expanded in central portions of the state.

Slight improvements to moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions were noted in southwest Michigan. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions improved over northwest Illinois, eastern Iowa, and southern Wisconsin. However, drought worsened across central and southern Illinois, where moderate and severe drought expanded. Moderate and severe drought also expanded across much of southern Missouri, while abnormally dry conditions increased over northwest Missouri and into southwest Iowa. Portions of east-central Minnesota saw improvement due to a wet start to January.

High Plains

Warmer-than-normal temperatures dominated the region, with departures exceeding 15°F above normal across parts of western Nebraska, western Kansas, northeast Colorado, Wyoming, and southeast Montana. Precipitation was minimal, with the greatest totals confined to northeastern North Dakota.

The continued warm and dry winter has resulted in some areas experiencing their driest start to winter on record. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southern Nebraska and northeast Kansas, as well as southeast Kansas, where moderate drought also increased. Moderate and severe drought expanded across southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, northeast Colorado, and southeast Colorado.

West

The largest positive temperature departures occurred in the West, with areas from central Montana into western Wyoming and northwest Colorado experiencing temperatures more than 15°F above normal. These warm conditions pushed snow to higher elevations and increased rainfall at lower elevations. While many areas received above-normal precipitation, snowpack remains critically low, and significant snow drought persists across numerous mountain ranges, including the Cascades, Oregon’s Blue Mountains, Idaho’s Bitterroot Range, and the central Rocky Mountains of Colorado.

It was a wet week for much of the region, with nearly all of California recording above-normal precipitation, along with much of Nevada and western Arizona. Above-normal precipitation also occurred across eastern Washington and Oregon, Idaho, western Utah, and Montana. Severe and extreme drought improved across northern Montana, with additional improvement to moderate drought in the southwest part of the state.

Continued wet conditions led to improvements in moderate and severe drought across Nevada, Arizona, eastern Oregon and Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across northeast New Mexico, while extreme and exceptional drought expanded across central Colorado. Extreme drought was removed from southwest Wyoming, and moderate drought improved across western Wyoming. In Washington, abnormally dry conditions were adjusted to reflect recent precipitation while also accounting for persistent snow drought in the Cascades.

Caribbean

For Puerto Rico, abnormally dry conditions were improved this week in the areas that received the most rain and the indicators improved.

This week, precipitation in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) was light to moderate and intermittent, which is typical of the dry season. Data from coastal and island weather stations on Saint Thomas and Saint John show moderate drought conditions, with occasional light rain or passing showers. Similarly, on St. Croix, most stations recorded less than 1.5 inches of rainfall over the week, and the island remained in abnormally dry conditions.

St. Croix experienced moderate rainfall, with locally measurable totals. This week, rainfall totals were reported for VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E), VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W), VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW), VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE), and VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE), ranging from 0.13 to 1.34 inches. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values for East Hill and Christiansted Hamilton showed short-term abnormally dry conditions. The water level depth at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) is 18.98 ft on January 6, 2026, an increase from last week, indicating that St. Croix remains in abnormally dry conditions.

On St. Thomas, the recorded rainfall totals at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) and VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N) were 0.66 inches and 0.13 inches, respectively. On January 6, 2026, the depth of the water level in the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas was reported to be 7.5 feet below the land surface, indicating moderate drought conditions. Similarly, St. John recorded minimal rainfall, with only 0.05 inches reported at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E). As of 6 January 2026, the depth to water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) is 11.69 ft below land surface, which has continued to increase since mid-October 2025, keeping St. John in moderate drought conditions.

Pacific

In Alaska, the precipitation for this week was adequate enough that no changes were needed.

In Hawaii, severe and extreme drought improved on the southeast portion of the Big Island.

This week, most regions of the Marshall Islands experienced little to no rainfall as the dry season began. Ailinglapalap, Jaluit, and Mili reported no precipitation. Wotje, Kwajalein, Majuro, and Utirik recorded rainfall amounts of 0.08, 0.05, 0.03, and 0.02 inches, respectively. As a result of earlier wet conditions in December 2025, Ailinglapalap, Jaluit, Majuro, and Mili are classified as drought-free, while Kwajalein, Utirik, and Wotje are experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

The Federated States of Micronesia is currently experiencing fair weather and dry conditions, with only isolated showers occurring in certain areas. Pingelap reported no rainfall, with two days of data missing, and it remains in an abnormally dry condition. In addition, the islands of Kapingamarangi, Nukuoro, Kosrae, Pohnpei, Lukunor, and Chuuk Lagoon recorded rainfall amounts of 1.41, 0.6, 0.28, 0.27, 0.24, and 0.21 inches, respectively. Despite these rainfall amounts, all of these islands remain free of drought due to the prolonged wet conditions over the past few weeks. In contrast, heavy rainfall has been observed on the islands of Yap and Woleai, which recorded 4.35 and 2.68 inches of rain this week, respectively, helping them stay drought-free.

American Samoa experienced wet weather and heavy rainfall this week, with Pago Pago receiving 2.74 inches of rain. Siufaga Ridge recorded 2.07 inches, while Toa Ridge saw 1.57 inches of rainfall this week. As a result, American Samoa remains drought-free.

Palau experienced warm, humid, and rainy weather this week. The Weather Service Office in Airai reported 0.9 inches of rain, while Koror recorded 0.84 inches, although data for five days is missing. The continuous rainfall has helped keep the island free of drought.

This week, the Mariana Islands experienced consistently warm weather, with conditions ranging from mostly sunny to partly cloudy, characteristic of the region's dry season. According to the weekly rainfall report, Guam received 0.14 inches, Rota received 0.44 inches, and Saipan recorded 0.77 inches. Tinian also reported 0.34 inches of rain, although data for five days is still pending. Due to the wet conditions over the past few weeks, the Mariana Islands are currently experiencing drought-free conditions.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, the pattern over the continental U.S. appears to be active with many areas showing a strong probability of precipitation. Areas from the Central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes areas are anticipated to receive up to an inch of precipitation. Further south, areas from Louisiana northeast into Kentucky are expected to receive the greatest amount of precipitation with several inches expected. From the Pacific Northwest into the Rocky Mountains and Southwest, widespread precipitation is anticipated. The driest areas are expected to be over the northern Great Plains, California, central and southern Texas and from the Carolinas into the Florida peninsula. Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal over much of the country. Only the areas along the southern tier of the U.S. will be near to below normal. The warmest departures are expected over the central to northern Plains, with some areas of Montana predicted to be 10-15 °F above normal.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures is projected over almost the entire U.S., with the exception of the Southeast and south Texas. The greatest chances of above-normal temperatures are over the West Coast, as well as the northern Plains and northern Rocky Mountains. The best chances of below-normal precipitation are over the Western U.S. and into the southern Plains. Above-normal chances of above-normal precipitation are anticipated over the central to northern Plains, Florida and along the coast of the Carolinas, as well as Alaska and Hawaii.

Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report is for the month of December 2025. By month’s end, 95 percent of Arizona cotton had been harvested, down 4 percentage points from the previous year’s levels. Twenty-two percent of the State’s barley had been planted, of which 19 percent had emerged, up 10 and 9 percentage points, respectively, from the previous year’s levels. Similarly, 25 percent of Arizona’s Durum wheat had been planted, of which 18 percent had emerged, up 16 and 12 percentage points, respectively, from the previous year’s levels. Alfalfa hay harvest continued to take place on about 10 percent of the crop’s acreage throughout the State. Arizona’s alfalfa crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 1 percent of the crop rated fair. Pasture and range conditions throughout the State deteriorated when compared to that of the previous report. Forty percent of the State’s pasture and rangeland was rated very poor, 34 percent was rated poor, 18 percent was rated fair, and 8 percent was rated good. Reports from eastern counties have reiterated that grazing conditions continue to deteriorate and that pastures have shown no sign of revegetation. Reporters have also stated that warmer than normal temperatures have allowed the emergence of undesirable spring annuals. Additionally, piñonjuniper woodlands are now showing signs of extreme vegetative distress. Topsoil moisture levels continue to fall as much of the State has been affected by drought. Thirty-four percent of the State is rated very short, 29 percent is rated short, 33 percent is rated adequate, and 4 percent is rated surplus. Subsoil moisture levels followed a similar trend. Throughout the month of December, measurable precipitation was experienced across northwestern and southeastern areas of the State while southwestern and northeastern areas remained relatively dry. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Hualapai and Galiuro Mountains received the most precipitation, accumulating approximately 3.00 inches while other areas of the State received anywhere from trace amounts to 2.50 inches of total precipitation. The drought information statements for south-central, southwest, and southeast Arizona remained in effect and were updated on December 22, 2025, in response to enduring drought conditions. The seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation outlooks for January, February, and March 2026 were issued by the National Weather Service on December 18, 2025. The seasonal mean temperature outlook continues to show that temperatures will likely be above normal for the entirety of the State, with the eastern three-quarters of Arizona having a higher probability of experiencing warmer temperatures than the remaining quarter of the State. Similarly, the seasonal total precipitation outlook continues to show that precipitation will likely be below normal for the entirety of the State, with southeastern regions having a higher probability of experiencing below average precipitation than remaining areas of the State. Arizona’s seasonal drought outlook was updated on December 31, 2025. The outlook now shows that conditions are expected to persist throughout all areas of the State that were affected by moderate drought (D1) or higher on December 30, 2025. Drought development is not expected across remaining areas of the State. Streamflow conditions throughout Arizona for the month of December were rated from low to above normal. Streamflow conditions suffered the most in the Upper San Pedro, Upper Little Colorado, Upper Gila, and Lower Colorado River Basins. As of December 30, 2025, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed an improvement in conditions when compared to that of the report dated November 18, 2025. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) bounded 21 percent of the State, moderate drought (D1) enveloped 40 percent, severe drought (D2) encompassed 28 percent, and extreme drought (D3) spanned 1 percent of the State’s total land area. Arizona remained free of exceptional (D4) drought. Throughout the month of December, temperatures were at or above normal according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). Daytime highs throughout Arizona ranged from 4 to 14 degrees above normal and ranged from the low 40’s in northern Apache County to the high 70’s across southwestern regions of the State. Overnight lows ranged from 2 degrees below to 10 degrees above normal and ranged from 15 to 40 degrees across northern and eastern counties, whereas counties within the Sonoran Desert experienced lows of 45 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit. 

IDAHO: The average temperatures for December were above normal for the State. Snowpack levels were below normal in southern and western Idaho. Precipitation was frequent, but it was mostly in the form of rain. However, the ground dried quickly. Cattle were being fed in higher elevations while those at lower elevations were still able to graze. Heavy rains in late December with warm soil temperatures allowed the topsoil moisture to improve. Early calving operations were preparing for the calving season. Lambing operations also prepared for spring lambs. Hay stocks were holding well with an adequate supply due to warmer than normal temperatures helping livestock maintain with less feed. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of December 2025. Topsoil moisture 25% very short, 36% short, 38% adequate, 1% surplus. Subsoil moisture 26% very short, 39% short, 34% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 18% poor, 56% fair, 26% good. Winter wheat – wind damage was 20% none, 49% light, 24% moderate, 7% severe. Winter wheat – freeze and drought damage 50% none, 49% light, 1% moderate. Winter wheat - protectiveness of snow cover 87% very poor, 9% poor, 4% fair. Pasture and range condition 17% very poor, 36% poor, 34% fair, 13% good. Livestock grazing accessibility 68% open, 18% difficult, 14% closed. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 86% fed. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 87% fed. December precipitation was average to above average, depending on location, while average temperatures were well above normal. Survey comments noted that temperatures in some counties bounced from well below to well above freezing. In other areas, the lack of snow cover and thick ice resulted in some livestock injuries, as well as overall difficulty for ranchers to navigate pastures to deliver feed. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for December 30, roughly 48 percent of the State was drought free, compared with just over 5 percent December 31, 2024. Other drought categories included abnormally dry (D0) at 27 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 15 percent, severe drought (D2) at 8 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at 2 percent. 

NEVADA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 5% short, 80% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 5% very short, 20% short, 70% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% very poor, 30% poor, 40% fair, 15% good, and 10% excellent. Temperatures across the State of Nevada were extremely warm for December, with many areas recording their warmest December in history. The State experienced unseasonably dry weather during the first few weeks, with storms approaching by month’s end. Significant rain events occurred towards the end of the month. Alfalfa fields were dormant. Winter annual grasses were green. 

OREGON: Temperatures were above normal throughout the State. Snowpack was below normal throughout the State. Rainfall was average to above average throughout the State. Due to above normal rain and warmer temperatures that delayed the ground freezing, winter grains, grass seed and pastures accelerated growth. In western Oregon, heavy rains and winds caused extensive flooding of low-lying pastures, hayfields and cropland. There were several landslides and downed trees reported. In north central Oregon, winter wheat emerged in most fields. There was no snow cover until late December, and the crops grew a lot. Winter wheat was in good condition. Livestock health was good, and forage was adequate. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of December 2025. Topsoil moisture 34% short, 27% adequate, 39% surplus. Subsoil moisture 34% short, 66% adequate. Pasture and range condition 50% fair, 50% good. Winter wheat condition 10% fair, 90% good. Hay and roughage supplies 10% s1ort, 90% adequate. Stock water supplies 20% short, 70% adequate, 10% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 68% good, 32% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 10% fair, 90% good. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 55%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 50%. Cows calved 1%. As of January 5, 2026, snowpack in Utah was 86 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Cache County reports noted more snow was received in the mountains during December compared to lower elevations. Beaver, Cache, and Grand Counties noted conditions were mild, warm, and abnormally dry during December with limited winter moisture received. Cache County reports no snowpack with receiving potential cold freeze have impact on fall planted grains. 

WASHINGTON: In Washington, there was a lot of rain, but snow was limited. Flooding was reported in several areas of the State. Snowpack levels were below normal in most of the State except for the eastern part which was average. Crop conditions looked good with the rain. Temperatures were above normal with only a few days of freezing temperatures. There were no major cold spells. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of December 2025. Topsoil moisture 43% very short, 12% short, 31% adequate, 14% surplus. Subsoil moisture 44% very short, 17% short, 25% adequate, 14% surplus. Winter wheat condition 12% very poor, 29% poor, 49% fair, 9% good, 1% excellent. Livestock condition 1% poor, 13% fair, 80% good, 6% excellent. Pasture and range condition 1% very poor, 25% poor, 43% fair, 26% good, 5% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 1% short, 86% adequate, 13% surplus. Stock water supplies 2% very short, 17% short, 68% adequate, 13% surplus. December precipitation varied from well below to well above average, depending on location, while average temperatures were well above normal. Survey comments noted extreme dryness across several counties. High winds coupled with a lack of snow cover negatively affected topsoil. Other comments noted above average snow and rain, with mild temperatures. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for December 30, roughly 31 percent of the State was drought free, compared with no drought free areas on December 31, 2024. Other drought categories included abnormally dry (D0) at 32 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 21 percent, severe drought (D2) at 12 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at 3 percent. 

Better Outlook for the Future Pushes Farmer Sentiment Higher

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers’ more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128. This month’s survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November. The November barometer survey took place from November 10-14, 2025.

Producers in November were more optimistic about their farms’ financial performance than a month earlier, as the Farm Financial Performance Index climbed 14 points to a reading of 92. In particular, the percentage of producers who expect better financial performance this year rose to 24% from just 16% in October. A sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November was a key reason behind the expectation for better financial performance. For example, Eastern Corn Belt prices for fall delivery of corn and soybeans rose 10% and 15%, respectively, from mid-October to mid-November. The stronger financial outlook in the crop sector outweighed a weaker outlook provided by livestock producers, who were feeling the brunt of a decline in cattle prices that took place during the same time frame. Despite the stronger financial outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 6 points to a reading of 56, with just 16% of respondents saying now is a good time to make large investments in their farm operations.

Producers became more optimistic about future agricultural trade prospects in November. Responding to a question included in every barometer survey since January 2019, just 7% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken in the next 5 years, down from 14% who felt that way in October and down from 30% who expected exports to weaken back in March. In a related question, 47% of corn producers responding to the November survey said they expect soybean exports to rise over the next 5 years, while just 8% said they expect soybean exports to decline. The improved trade outlook appeared to contribute to this month’s sentiment improvement.

A majority of producers in November reported that they still expect to receive a supplementary support payment from USDA, similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), but they were less confident of receiving the payment than in September. This month, just 16% of respondents thought an MFP payment was “very likely”, down from 62% who felt that way in September. Still, when the “likely” and “very likely” response categories are combined, just over three-fourths (76%) of farmers in November said they expect an MFP payment, compared to 83% who felt that way in September. When asked how an MFP payment would be used on their farms, 58% of respondents said they would use it to “pay down debt”, up from 52% who said an MFP payment would be used to reduce debt when surveyed in October.

For the second month in a row, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose, reaching 116 in November, 3 points above a month earlier and 10 points higher than in September. Farmers’ long-run perspective on farmland values also rose this month as the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed 4 points to a reading of 165, a new record high for the index. This month’s survey also asked corn producers about their expectations for cash rental rates for farmland in 2026. Nearly three-fourths of respondents (74%) said they expect rates in 2026 to be about the same as this year, which was very consistent with responses received in both July and August. The relatively strong cash rent outlook provides some support for farmland values.

The November survey again asked corn producers what adjustments to their production practices they anticipate making in 2026 in response to expected weak operating margins. Among producers who say they plan to make changes, the top two production practices they will consider changing are shifting to lower-cost seed traits or varieties and reducing applications of phosphorus. Next in line for possible changes are reducing corn seeding rates and nitrogen application rates. Still, a large minority of farmers (40%) said they don’t plan to make any changes to their corn production practices in 2026.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers’ attitudes regarding 2025’s policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction”, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that “things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction”, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose “wrong track” rose from 28% to 33%.

January Washington D.C. Preview

The aftermath of the Venezuela strike will dominate Congress' time but they also need to be mindful of looming funding deadlines. POLITICO policy teams break down the issues that will kick off the new year. — Defense and national security will be top of mind as business resumes on Capitol Hill.   — Lawmakers are also under pressure to pass Appropriations legislation before Jan. 30 deadline, when stopgap funding expires.   — Congress isn't backing down from efforts to block state regulations on artificial intelligence and data privacy. Agriculture — Farm bill update: Lawmakers say they will restart farm bill talks, now two years behind schedule. Many major issues traditionally included in farm bills were addressed in the Republican tax-and-spending law last summer, but some sticky areas still need to be resolved.   For example, farm groups are pressing lawmakers to address state laws regulating pesticides and animal welfare, as well as a federal ban on intoxicating hemp products passed in the deal to reopen the government last fall. Congress must either secure a new farm bill deal or extend the current legislation by the end of this year.   — On food policy: The Trump administration plans to release a long-awaited update to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans soon after Jan. 1. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has promised guidelines that recommend whole food, and the famous pyramid is also expected to make a return.   Major changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program will also begin in January. States are already implementing tightened work requirements, as directed by the GOP’s megabill, and new restrictions barring recipients from using SNAP funds to buy soda and other junk food. Additionally, the administration is expected to reveal several proposed food regulations in 2026, including ones that would define ultra-processed foods, impose restrictions on artificial dyes and overhaul the process for determining which additives qualify for the Generally Recognized as Safe designation. The timeline for those proposals is unclear.   — Staffing woes: USDA’s internal watchdog found that the department lost more than 20,000 employees within the first half of 2025, with the Forest Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service experiencing the highest number of exits. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ reorganization plan for 2026, which aims to move thousands of Washington-area employees to five new hubs across the country, is expected to lead to further departures. — Marcia Brown & Rachel Shin Trade — Tariff walk-back: The Trump administration is hitting pause on some tariffs it threatened in 2025, while looking at other ways to pressure foreign countries on economic policy.   The White House issued a proclamation late on New Year’s Eve that it was delaying its increase in duties on imports of upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities, which were due to go into effect on Jan. 1.   The Commerce Department also announced on Dec. 31 that it will cut its anti-dumping duties on Italian pasta, which were set to soar to more than 90 percent.   Trump cut tariffs on dozens more food products in November, zeroing out duties on a long list of agricultural items that can’t be grown or obtained in the U.S. The moves are part of a broader administration effort to respond to rising criticism about the cost of living and rising prices for everyday necessities like groceries and utilities.   — Warning shots: But even as the White House tones down its tariff policies, officials are trying to signal to other major economies that they aren’t backing down on their trade demands. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer recently threatened to launch a Section 301 trade investigation into the European Union’s digital policies, after issuing a similar warning to South Korea earlier this fall.   And Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced shortly before Christmas that the U.S. will deny entry to five foreign technology and disinformation leaders, including former officials involved in crafting overseas regulations that clamp down on American social media companies. — Emily Cadei, Ari Hawkins, Camille Gjis, Dan Desrochers, Gabby Miller Financial Services —  Fed chair: January is set to be a busy month for the Federal Reserve. President Trump says he expects to announce his nominee to chair the central bank early this year, setting the stage for a new direction for the Fed once Jerome Powell’s term is up in May. The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on Jan. 21 in a lawsuit over whether Trump can fire Fed board member Lisa Cook, who he alleges committed mortgage fraud (claims her lawyer has denied). Finally, the central bank’s rate-setting committee will meet Jan. 27-28, with Powell and other officials signaling a pause in interest rate moves after three consecutive cuts.   — Labor woes: The Labor Department is scheduled to release the December jobs report on Jan. 9, which will provide a vital snapshot of the economy heading into the new year. Hiring has slowed, corporate layoffs are spiking and wage growth has cooled. Administration officials say the trend could reverse in the coming months as new tax deductions, deregulation and cheaper energy costs trickle through the economy. If not, Republicans could face serious challenges during their midterm election campaigns.   — SEC crypto: Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins may finally answer the cryptocurrency industry’s calls for regulatory clarity. Atkins suggested that the Wall Street regulator is preparing to release its so-called innovation exemption as soon as January. That could give companies a better sense of how to navigate the SEC’s long-standing investor-protection rules as they wade deeper into crypto. But what the exemption will specifically cover is still not clear — and the guidance could be met with pushback from some legacy firms that have raised concerns about an unlevel playing field between crypto and non-crypto firms.   — Congress housing: The House is expected to vote on a housing package advanced by the Financial Services Committee at the end of the year. The panel could also hold an additional housing markup as early as January.   House Financial Services will hold hearings on financial technology regulation; evaluating the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States; the Fed’s balance sheet; and oversight of HUD and the Federal Housing Administration.   — Homebuilding boost: An appropriations package to fund HUD and other federal agencies, as well as bipartisan legislation to boost homebuilding, have been punted to the new year. Congress has until Jan. 30 to fund government agencies, including HUD, and avert a partial shutdown. But it's not clear when members will return to homebuilding reform negotiations and work through the differences between the Senate’s ROAD to Housing package and House’s Housing for the 21st Century Act. — Cassandra Dumay, Victoria Guida, Katherine Hapgood, Declan Harty, Sam Sutton Tax — The big question for 2026: Can Republicans pass another budget reconciliation measure this year?   Clearly, some key GOP lawmakers are working to make that goal — which would allow Republicans to pass another fiscal measure without Democratic votes — a reality.   It’s not certain that a second reconciliation bill would include tax provisions, particularly compared to a 2025 version that extended a range of expiring tax cuts from Trump’s first term while enacting some new tax relief items as well.   Another party-line fiscal measure could focus on health care, given that expanded Obamacare tax credits have now expired. For instance, many Republicans have long favored beefing up tax-advantaged health savings accounts, something which could presumably be in the mix if reconciliation talks get more serious in 2026.   The big issue with all of that is that a number of GOP lawmakers have shown little to no interest in trying to pass even a lighter megabill this year, something which could be even more difficult now that Congress is in a midterm election year.   Even more to the point, a lot of those Republican reconciliation skeptics are in real positions of power — including leaders of committees that would be charged with fleshing out another fiscal package.   — Something else to watch: A pile of largely bipartisan tax incentives also expired at the end of December, the most notable likely being a credit aimed at nudging businesses to hire people who have faced barriers to employment.   Key tax writers showed little enthusiasm for extending those preferences in a year-end tax bill. But lawmakers have attached so-called tax extenders packages to government funding measures in the past — and Congress currently faces a Jan. 30 deadline for avoiding another shutdown, so there could be an effort to restore those incentives in an upcoming spending bill.   — Speaking of reconciliation: The Treasury Department and the IRS continue to work overtime to release guidance for the tax items from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.   Treasury and the IRS are facing a particular time crunch because Republicans put several key new incentives in place for 2025, meaning that taxpayers will be able to claim them when the next tax filing season opens in the coming weeks.   Those include the new deductions for tipped income, overtime pay and for the interest paid on new automobile loans.   And in fact, the IRS rolled out proposed rules on New Year’s Eve for the car loan interest deduction, which advised buyers to use their vehicle information label to check whether their new car, truck or van’s final assembly occurred in the U.S. — a requirement for claiming the incentive.   — Looking abroad: The Treasury Department also has been working to win broader ratification for an exemption for American businesses from the global minimum tax.   Republicans have long taken a dim view of the global minimum tax, the second pillar of a global tax deal clinched during the Biden administration.   GOP lawmakers then went so far as to initially include a provision in the megabill that would have allowed the U.S. to retaliate against countries deemed to be employing discriminatory taxes, such as key parts of Pillar Two.   Congressional Republicans then dropped that provision, popularly known as the “revenge tax,” after Treasury reached an agreement on an exemption for U.S. companies with other G-7 countries.   Treasury since has been pressing to get that exemption approved through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the driving force behind the global tax deal.   The Trump administration had hoped that would happen by the end of 2025 — but that didn’t happen, despite some signs of progress late in the year. Republicans will be keenly watching to see if that agreement is finalized early in 2026. — Bernie Becker Employment and Immigration — NLRB: The National Labor Relations Board spent much of 2025 without the power or enough appointees to take significant action. But this year stands to be much different.   The Senate in December confirmed a slate of President Trump’s nominees not long before taking off for the holidays, including two NLRB board members and a general counsel for the agency.   Republicans will now be able to shift power back toward employers, after the Biden administration made several moves on behalf of workers and labor unions. Business groups are eager for the NLRB to begin doing so, though the quasi-judicial process means it can take years to reverse how workplace labor disputes are adjudicated.   — EEOC: Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Chair Andrea Lucas shared some of her 2026 plans in an interview with POLITICO. She's actively trying to raise the profile of the workplace anti-discrimination agency and encouraging white men to file charges if they feel they’ve been discriminated against. She also said to expect “a higher volume of public actions” this year.   — H-1B visas: A federal judge Tuesday upheld the Trump administration’s authority to attach a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, in the first stress test of the controversial move.   The development comes as the Department of Homeland Security finalized a rule to overhaul how the H-1B visa lottery operates. Officials say the redesign, which skews the system toward higher earners in a given field, is an effort to protect American workers in entry-level positions. — Nick Niedzwiadek Education — New Pell finalized: The Education Department and a committee of representatives across the higher education community came to a consensus in December on how to implement the new Workforce Pell Grants.   Pell Grants are awarded to low-income students to cover the cost of college and do not have to be repaid. Congress over the summer made training programs as short as eight weeks eligible for what are now known as Workforce Pell Grants — after about a decade of attempts. Previously, only programs more than 15 weeks long were eligible for Pell.   The department’s final proposal is closely aligned with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — the law that established the Workforce Pell program. The negotiators had some disagreements and concerns on some of the finer details in the proposal, but agreed on the overall concept.   — Is it worth it?: Now that the agency wrapped up its rulemaking process for Workforce Pell, it’s moving on to the next target: accountability.   Department officials and members of the higher education community will figure out how to implement the “do no harm” standard enacted by the GOP’s sweeping policy law during its next rulemaking session this month.   The law requires that graduates of most college programs earn more than the typical person who does not have a postsecondary education. If the program fails to meet that standard in two of three consecutive years, it loses out on federal student aid.   The negotiators will also revisit the department’s financial value transparency and gainful employment rules. The Biden administration’s version of the rules require schools to post data that shows graduates can afford the cost of the program they’ve chosen. They’re designed to help students choose degree or certificate programs that won’t leave them saddled with debt. — Rebecca Carballo Defense — Venezuela fallout: Lawmakers will take stock of President Donald Trump's decision to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro when they return to Washington.   The unprecedented move has produced a partisan split-screen, with most Republicans falling in line behind Trump while Democrats criticized the administration for launching a major military operation without consulting Congress.   Those political coalitions will be put to the test this week. Senate Democrats are expected to force a vote on war powers legislation that would block further military action against Venezuela without congressional authorization. Similar resolutions have come up short of the support needed to pass the Senate and House in recent months, with few Republicans willing to break ranks.   Lawmakers of all political stripes want more details from the Trump administration. Leaders in both parties are urging administration officials to brief lawmakers upon their return on the operation and plans for what comes next in Venezuela.   — Defense funding in focus: Lawmakers, with less than a month until another government shutdown, will turn to clinching a deal to fund the Pentagon for the remainder of the fiscal year. But plenty of hurdles remain to a defense spending deal, including exactly how much money to dole out to military programs.   Leaders of the House and Senate Appropriations panels didn’t land on a topline Pentagon budget figure before Congress adjourned for the holidays last month. Deciding on an overall funding total — whether it matches or exceeds Trump's proposed budget — is necessary for appropriators to construct a full-year bill.   The Senate Appropriations Committee in July approved an $853 billion Pentagon funding measure, a nearly $22 billion hike from the flat defense budget proposed by the administration. The House passed an $831.5 billion measure that aligns with Trump's budget level, although the bill was written before the administration sent details of its Pentagon spending proposal to Capitol Hill. Health Care — Fiscal 2026 funding: Congress has till the end of the month to set spending levels for government agencies, and the health department figures to be among the most contentious. President Trump in May proposed a massive $31.3 billion cut to the Department of Health and Human Services budget, but Congress has ignored it.   Before they left for their Christmas break, senators said they were seeking to package their version of the HHS funding bill with four of the 11 other appropriations bills Congress needs to pass each year in an attempt to expedite them. The fiscal year started on Oct. 1. After a six-week government shutdown, Congress passed a funding bill in November that held spending flat through January.   The Senate version, which the Appropriations Committee approved by a vote of 26-3 in July, proposes $116.6 billion for HHS — a $446 million increase in discretionary funds compared to fiscal 2025. Most of the increase would go to the National Institutes of Health. The bill would maintain funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.   Trump’s budget plan, by contrast, would have cut NIH funding by roughly 40 percent and the CDC’s by more than 50 percent.   The House version, which its appropriations panel released in September, would provide $108 billion, a $7 billion decrease, from fiscal 2025.   House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and his Senate counterpart, Susan Collins (R-Maine), reached an agreement right before the holidays on overall fundings levels for fiscal 2026, but have not yet made them public.   Appropriators would much prefer to pass new spending legislation and not have to revert to a year-long continuing resolution as Congress did in fiscal 2025.   — Obamacare subsidies: Congress allowed tax credits that make Affordable Care Act insurance plans less expensive to expire on Jan. 1, hitting customers with average premium increases of 26 percent, according to estimates.   Democrats created the subsidies as a pandemic relief measure in 2021. They extended them in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act but set the sunset date to keep the costs of the law down and to comply with budget rules.   They demanded a permanent extension as a condition of voting for government funding legislation in September, but Republicans declined, prompting a six-week government shutdown. Eight senators in the Democratic caucus ultimately relented to reopen the government on the condition that the Senate take a vote on extending the subsidies. Senators rejected an extension on Dec. 11 by a vote of 51-48, with 60 votes required for passage.   That seemed like the end of it, considering that most Republicans oppose extending the subsidies, arguing they have driven up the cost of insurance and were always intended to be temporary. But right before Congress left for the year, four Republican moderates in the House, Mike Lawler of New York, and Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania, signed a discharge petition that will force Speaker Mike Johnson to call a vote on extending the subsidies in January.   If the four side with Democrats to pass a bill, that would put the matter in senators’ hands. Republicans Susan Collins of Maine, Bernie Moreno of Ohio and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana have expressed the view that Congress could still agree to extend the subsidies temporarily if the extension were paired with changes Republicans want, such as anti-fraud measures or to redirect subsidy funding to tax-advantaged health savings accounts.   For now, subsidies have returned to their original Obamacare levels from 2010. Gone are free plans for many low-income people and help for anyone earning more than 400 percent of the poverty level. — Health Care Pro Team Transportation — The clock is ticking: Congress is now in crunch time to pass the fiscal 2026 spending bill that funds DOT — among other appropriations legislation — ahead of a fast-approaching Jan. 30 deadline, when stopgap funding expires. Hopes of reaching a deal before the holiday recess were dashed at the last minute due to Democratic frustration over the White House’s decision to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Republican appropriators in the House and Senate say they’ve agreed on topline totals for the nine major spending bills but unless Congress gets moving fast, another stopgap bill or even a shutdown could be in the offing.   — Whither ROTOR?: Last month, the Senate passed an amended version of Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz’ s ROTOR Act, S. 2503 (119), a response to last year’s deadly midair collision in Washington. Its passage came after Cruz and Senate Commerce ranking member Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) lambasted a controversial military helicopter provision tucked away in the annual defense policy bill. Though the contested language is now law, the ROTOR Act now heads to the House, with its own amendment that would strike the military helicopter provision codified in the NDAA. Cruz’s legislation, however, is expected to face some turbulence from a key member of the lower chamber:Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.), chair of the House Transportation Committee, who doesn’t back the bill in its current form.   — Preparing for the next shutdown: There are a few bipartisan bills floating around Congress that would pay air traffic controllers during future government shutdowns, albeit with different funding mechanisms. One of those bills, H.R. 6086, introduced by Graves and House T&I ranking member Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), advanced out of committee just before the holiday break. However, it’ll face an uphill battle with congressional appropriators, some of whom believe paying controllers during future funding lapses would prolong shutdowns even further.   — Coming soon?: Due (in part) to the recent government shutdown, neither the House nor Senate wound up releasing bill text for their respective versions of the surface bill before Congress skipped town last month. With the Biden-era surface transportation reauthorization set to expire this September, lawmakers will have their work cut out for them to move quickly on its follow-up. Graves has told POLITICO the House version of the bill should be released and get a markup sometime in the “first part” of this year. On the other side of Capitol Hill, Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) — chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee — has said she’s aiming to release surface bill text and hold a markup in early March. — Pavan Acharya Technology — Preemption Redux:  The House is expected to unveil sweeping legislative frameworks as early as January on AI and data privacy that promise to preempt a growing “patchwork” of state laws.     Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.), who led the bipartisan AI task force last Congress, recently told POLITICO that language for his bill, which would codify portions of Trump's AI Action Plan and preempt state laws, is being finalized. The legislation will serve as a counterpart to Sen. Cruz’s regulatory “sandbox” bill.    There are some early rumblings that a state AI moratorium could find its way onto the funding bill that must pass by Jan. 30 to prevent a government shutdown. That would require a tremendous amount of legislative horse-trading in the first few weeks of January, making it a major lift for the tech lobby.    An all-Republican data privacy working group, led by Rep. John Joyce (R-Pa.), is also putting the finishing touches on national privacy legislation that will preempt state laws, as POLITICO exclusively reported. It will offer the first glimpse into how the GOP wants to protect American consumers’ data this Congress, after House E&C Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) decided to start from scratch under his leadership, casting aside previous efforts including the American Privacy Rights Act.    Obernolte, also a member of the working group, told POLITICO to expect a framework that takes most state’ privacy laws into account, although Texas’ data privacy law is a favored framework among Republicans such as Cruz.    — Chip war incoming?: Trump’s decision to greenlight the sale of Nvidia’s powerful H200 chips to China in December, following CEO Jensen Huang’s swing through Washington, rattled lawmakers of all stripes on the Hill, some of whom have introduced legislation to increase congressional oversight such deals.    House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast (R-Fla.) unveiled the AI OVERWATCH Act in December to ensure congressional oversight over the sale of advanced AI chips to adversary nations, as it does with arms sales, while supercharging semiconductor exports to American allies.     House Foreign Affairs ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) rolled out the RESTRICT Act to block most advanced AI chip sales to China and other “countries of concern.” The legislation, which 13 House Democrats have signed onto, also calls for a license-free export pathway for U.S. companies operating data centers overseas.     While the AI OVERWATCH Act is more likely to pass given its less aggressive posture than the Democratic RESTRICT Act, it signals Democrats are starting to take a tougher stance on China than even Republicans on chip exports.       — Social media execs take the stand: A bellwether product liability trial kicks off in Los Angeles into whether social media companies intentionally designed their platforms to be addictive. The Jan. 27 trial is the first of three that will test how juries respond. The results could help resolve hundreds of other similar cases that are expected to go to trial this year.     Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel and Adam Mosseri, head of Instagram, are slated to testify.    The trial comes after Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Carolyn Kuhl rejected the companies’ argument that a provision known as Section 230 shields the companies from liability.    Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of senators want to overturn Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. Senate Judiciary Committee ranking member Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) introduced a bill in late December seeking to repeal the provision, which protects online platform providers from being held liable for content posted by third parties on their platforms.    — Eyes on media ownership:  The media industry is watching to see how the Federal Communications Commission addresses caps limiting the size of local broadcasters. A 2004 law limits companies to only reaching 39 percent of U.S. households, although the broadcast lobby wants that lifted or removed to better compete against online streaming platforms.     Many cable companies, consumer advocacy groups, organized labor and Democrats are wary of broadcast TV consolidation, warning it could hurt the diversity of viewpoints on broadcast news and hike consumers’ cable bills. Some conservatives, meanwhile, want to unleash consolidation to give affiliate broadcast station groups more power over nationwide programmers.  — Gabby Miller, Katherine Long, John Hendel and Brendan Bordelon Cybersecurity — Cyber plans: Lawmakers and White House officials are ringing in the new year with a full slate of cyber-related policy priorities, including reauthorizing critical cybersecurity laws and putting out a new national cybersecurity strategy. Meanwhile, one key cyber position remains unfilled — and it’s unclear whether that role will be filled anytime soon.    The Office of the National Cyber Director is due to release a new national cyber strategy sometime in the coming days. POLITICO reported last month that the strategy will contain six pillars — including securing critical infrastructure and changing adversary behavior in cyberspace — and is likely to be much shorter in length than previous White House cyber strategies. The most recent strategy was released in 2023 by the Biden administration, while the first Trump administration put out a version in 2018.   President Trump is also set to sign a short executive order in conjunction with the national cyber strategy’s release, as POLITICO first reported.   — On Capitol Hill: Lawmakers have until the end of the month to either approve the 2026 federal funding package or pass a continuing resolution to prevent another government shutdown. The current continuing resolution that reopened the government in November included clauses temporarily extending both the 2015 Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act — a key cyber law that incentivizes the private sector to share cyber threat data with the government — and a program that gives state and local governments funds to shore up cybersecurity programs.    Bipartisan lawmakers in both the House and Senate are pushing to reauthorize both programs long-term — though Senate Homeland Security Committee Chair Rand Paul (R-Ky.) continues to spoil those plans.    His panel has jurisdiction over both pieces of legislation. The senator told POLITICO in December that he will only allow the reauthorization of the 2015 CISA law to proceed out of his committee if language banning the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency from carrying out its work to counter disinformation is added in — a fringe idea that has not garnered widespread support. (The cyber agency and the bill are not directly connected, though they do share an acronym.)   — Stalled nomination: And CISA, the nation’s cyber defense agency, continues to be in leadership limbo heading into the new year. The Senate failed to bring the nomination of Sean Plankey, Trump’s pick for CISA director, to the floor for a vote before going on holiday recess, opening the possibility that Plankey may have to be renominated by the White House and start the process over this year.    Meanwhile, POLITICO reported last month that the agency’s acting director, Madhu Gottumukkala, has come under fire for his handling of a failed polygraph. And without a Senate-confirmed leader on the books, Gottumukkala will likely stay in the agency’s top role for the foreseeable future — a prospect some current and former cybersecurity officials are increasingly wary of. — Maggie Miller