This Week's Drought Summary (2/19)

After a few warm and dry weeks, heavy precipitation returned to the West Coast States this past week; however, the heaviest amounts fell on California, which is almost completely free of dryness and drought. At least 1.5 inches fell on a large part of the state including much of the western tier, the higher elevations, and the northern Valleys. Much larger amounts fell on isolated higher-elevation and orographically-favored locations, with a few spots recording amounts approaching 10 inches (liquid-equivalent). Several feet of snow has piled up on a few spots across the Sierra Nevada, but overall the snowpack in this area remains significantly below normal. Other areas from northwestern California northward through the Cascades and points west also recorded significant amounts of precipitation, ranging from 0.5 to locally 3.0 inches. Similar amounts were more scattered across the rest of the interior West, with the largest totals confined to the highest elevations. As of early Tuesday Feb 17, this precipitation has not significantly boosted snowpack in some areas with less than normal amounts, specifically much of the Cascades, south-central Idaho, Scattered locations across western Wyoming, much of west-central and southwestern Colorado, central sections of Utah and Nevada, and the southernmost Rockies.

Farther east, moderate precipitation was fairly widespread over approximately the southeastern quarter of the contiguous states, east of the High Plains and from the central Great Plains, lower Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic region southward. Heavier amounts fell on scattered areas across the east-central and southeastern Great Plains, parts of the adjacent lower Mississippi Valley, and a few narrow swaths across the western Florida Panhandle and parts of the northern Peninsula. To the north, scattered light amounts with isolated moderate totals were recorded in upstate New York and parts of New England. Other areas across the High Plains and the northeastern quarter of the contiguous states reported little or no precipitation.

Some areas of improvement were introduced based either on this past week’s precipitation or a re-assessment of the effects from earlier storms. Specifically, improvements were introduced in central Idaho, the southwestern High Plains, and parts of the Tennessee, lower Ohio, and middle Mississippi Valleys. There was more deterioration than improvement overall, however, including areas scattered across the Eastern Seaboard, lower Mississippi Valley, Deep South, Upper Midwest, northern High Plains, and far southern Texas. Hawaii experienced areas of improvement for the second consecutive week while Alaska and most dry areas in Puerto Rico remained unchanged.

Northeast

Pennsylvania, southern New England, and northwestern Maine recorded very little precipitation while light to isolated moderate amounts (up to an inch) dampened upstate New York, northern New England, and eastern Maine. On the southern end of the region, moderate amounts fell on West Virginia and Maryland, with widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inch. The precipitation was insufficient to justify any areas of improvement, so drought in the Northeast Region generally remained the same with a few areas of deterioration, particularly in central and eastern Pennsylvania, adjacent New Jersey, and southern New England. This includes the introduction of an area of extreme drought (D3) in northern New Jersey. Precipitation totaled over the last 60 and 90 days is under half of normal in a large swaths from the Maryland Panhandle through southern and into east-central Pennsylvania, along with scattered areas across New England and southern New York.

Southeast

Compared to the Northeast, light to moderate precipitation was far more widespread, especially from southern Virginia through the central Carolinas, much of Georgia, and northern Florida, where many locations reported over 0.5 inch. A few areas of in the central Carolinas and isolated patches in the southern Appalachians, central Georgia, and the northern half of Florida reported 1.5 to 2.0 inches, but given recent deficits, none of these areas received enough to substantially change the intensity of extant dryness and drought. In drier areas – especially the southern half of the Florida Peninsula – dryness and drought expanded and intensified. One-category deterioration was brought into the southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills, parts of the eastern Carolinas, central Georgia, and several patches across Florida. This has resulted in several large swaths of extreme drought (D3) from western South Carolina southward, with the largest areas extending from southern Georgia into central Florida, and across the southern Florida Peninsula. During the last 3 months, precipitation totals were 6 to 12 inches less than normal over southwestern North Carolina and adjacent areas, with 4 to 8 inch deficits common across northern Georgia and much of the rest of the western Carolinas. Farther south, scattered locations across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula reported less than one-quarter of normal amounts for the last 90 days.

South

Heavy precipitation (3 to locally 5 inches) dropped on a swath through central Arkansas while 1.5 to locally 3.0 inches were recorded from the lower Red River (south) Valley through the central tier of Arkansas into much of western Tennessee. Moderate to locally heavy amounts were observed over much of the west side of the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of eastern Texas. Amounts of several tenths of an inch to locally around an inch were reported across a large part of central and north-central Texas, most of Oklahoma east of the Panhandle, much of Mississippi and western Alabama, and eastern sections of Tennessee. Little or no precipitation was reported across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, western Texas, and Deep South Texas. This pattern supported improvement across the western half of Tennessee and smaller areas of Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi, along with scattered spots across southern Oklahoma. Deterioration was fairly common in areas that missed most of the week’s precipitation, primarily in the lower Mississippi Valley, the immediate ArkLaTex region, and Deep South Texas. Intensifying dryness in the latter area prompted the introduction of exceptional drought (D4) in parts of Jim Hogg and Brooks Counties. D4 already existed in part of interior northeastern Arkansas and the southernmost reaches of the Texas Big Bend. Meanwhile, extreme drought (D3) expanded to cover most of south-central and Deep South Texas, parts of east-central Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi, portions of southern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas, most of northeastern Arkansas, and a few smaller scattered areas in western Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. During the past 90 days, fewer than 2 inches of precipitation have fallen on western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and the southwestern tier of Texas from the Big Bend into much of Deep South Texas.

Midwest

Central and northern portions of the Midwest were almost precipitation-free last week, prompting some deterioration across the Upper Midwest from northern Illinois across Iowa into southern Minnesota. Farther south, light to moderate amounts (up to an inch) fell on the middle and lower Ohio Valley and the adjacent Mississippi Valley, with heavier totals (1.5 to locally 3.0 inches) reported across central and southern Missouri. This pattern led to improvements in a swath from central and southern Missouri through southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

High Plains

Moderate to locally heavy precipitation fell on part of eastern Kansas, and scattered light to moderate amounts fell on the rest of the southern tier of the Region. Farther north, however, scant precipitation led to large areas of degradation across a large proportion of Wyoming and central through eastern Montana, with more limited deterioration introduced across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. This resulted in moderate drought or worse covering a swath across most of Nebraska and adjacent areas westward through most of Wyoming and the northern, central, and western sections of Colorado. Severe drought (D2) or worse is widespread from western Nebraska across the southern tier of Wyoming through northern and central parts of Colorado.

West

Heavy precipitation was fairly widespread across California, which is currently almost completely devoid of any degree of dryness or drought. Elsewhere, widespread deterioration was introduced across central and eastern Montana, leaving most of the state entrenched in abnormal dryness to severe drought (D0 to D2), with an area of extreme drought in parts of north-central Montana. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made as light to moderate precipitation fell on a large part of the areas of dryness and drought – enough to preclude widespread deterioration, but not sufficient to justify much improvement. Only a few parts of central and south-central New Mexico were improved, primarily from the effects of precipitation prior to last week. Severe to extree drought (D2-D3) now extends across most of the western half of New Mexico, adjacent4 Arizona, central and northern Utah, parts of northern and southwestern Idaho, and parts of Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades.

Caribbean

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall fell on relatively large patches across the state, but only the eastern tier of the interior D0 area recorded enough precipitation to end D0 conditions. Most D0 areas were unchanged from last week.

After a wet week, conditions dried out across the U.S. Virgin Islands, with all islands reporting below-normal weekly precipitation totals. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.59 inches of rain. Despite the lower total, St. John remains free of drought and abnormal dryness. Groundwater levels at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well were 11.97 ft below land surface on February 17. Analysis shows a steady decline since October 19, when the level was 7.56 ft, though there has been a slight recovery this month compared to the 12.97 ft reported on February 2. Over the past year, the water level has dropped approximately 4.5 ft (from 7.46 ft on February 17, 2025). Nearly all SPI timescales indicate wet conditions—especially the 1-month value—though the 6-month SPI showed some dryness. No measurable precipitation was reported on St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen Airport) this week, but the island remains free of drought and abnormal dryness due to above-normal rainfall in previous weeks. The depth to water at the Adventure 28 Well was 19.72 ft below land surface on February 17. Groundwater analysis shows a steady decrease of 5.8 ft since May 27, 2025 (when the level was 13.91 ft), and a drop of 3.3 ft compared to this time last year (16.39 ft on February 17, 2025). The 1-, 3-, and 6-month SPI values confirm wet conditions on the island, while longer timescales show drier signals. On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport reported a rainfall total of 0.73 inches. The depth to water at the Grade School 3 well was 6.24 ft below land surface on February 17. This is down 4.19 ft from the 365-day maximum of 2.05 ft recorded on October 19, 2025. However, it is only 0.66 ft lower than the water level from one year ago (5.58 ft on February 17, 2025). SPI values were mixed, showing wetter conditions at the 1-month timescale but dry conditions at the 3-month timescale (other timescales were unavailable). Consequently, St. Thomas remains in short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) this week.

Pacific

Conditions across Alaska were unchanged this week, with small areas of moderate drought noted in part of west-central and interior southwestern Alaska while D0 covered considerably larger areas from the lower northwestern part of the state through south-central locations, including part of the Anchorage area.

Precipitation amounts exceeded 3 inches at a few locations across Oahu and some of the windward and higher elevations elsewhere. Other locations recorded near or somewhat below normal amounts, but the excessive precipitation that affected numerous locations the prior week prompted additional improvements over portions of the state. Specifically, additional1-category improvements were introduced along much of the northeastern tier of the Big Island, northeastern and western areas of Maui, and smaller patches of central Maui, eastern Molokai, and southern Oahu. This included the removal of any dryness or drought designation in small patches across northeastern sections of both Maui and the Big Island, marking the first time since late March that any part of Maui has emerged from dryness, and the first time since late August in the Big Island.

Conditions were dry over American Samoa this week. Pago Pago reported a weekly rainfall total of 0.40 inches, while Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge reported 0.26 and 0.37 inches, respectively, with several days missing from the records.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. The Koror COOP site reported a weekly rainfall total of 2.10 inches (with two days missing) and a month-to-date total of 6.30 inches as of February 15.

Conditions were drier than normal over the Mariana Islands this week. Rota, Guam, Tinian, and Saipan reported weekly rainfall totals of 0.87, 0.59, 0.42, and 0.09 inches, respectively. Although these amounts were below the island’s one-inch minimum threshold to meet water needs, the Marianas remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to wet conditions in previous weeks.

Conditions were mixed across the Federated States of Micronesia this week. Nukuoro and Pohnpei reported weekly rainfall amounts of 5.24 inches and 2.35 inches, respectively, and both locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness. Several locations, including Chuuk (1.15 inches), Woleai (1.09 inches), Kosrae (1.04 inches), and Lukunoch (0.51 inches), reported rainfall totals (each with 1 day missing) below the two-inch minimum threshold needed for water needs; however, these locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to previously wet conditions. Kapingamarangi reported 2.80 inches this week but remained in short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) due to precipitation deficits from previous dry weeks. Pingelap reported only 0.02 inches of rainfall and remains in short-term moderate drought (D1-S). Data for Fananu and Ulithi were insufficient to make any assessments this week.

Dry conditions prevailed across most of the Republic of the Marshall Islands this week, as all islands reported weekly rainfall totals below the minimum two-inch threshold for water needs. Despite the low totals (and with some locations missing a day of data), Jaluit (1.19 inches), Ailinglapalap (0.54 inches), Kwajalein (0.28 inches), Mili (0.16 inches), and Majuro (no reported rainfall) remained free of drought and abnormal dryness due to above-normal precipitation received in previous weeks. Based on recent precipitation and rainfall totals from previous weeks and months, Utirik reported 1.18 inches this week and remained in short-term severe drought (D2-S). Meanwhile, conditions continued to deteriorate over Wotje, which reported only 0.12 inches for the week and a month-to-date rainfall total of 1.34 inches. For these reasons, Wotje was degraded to short-term severe drought (D2-S) this week.

Looking Ahead

The heaviest precipitation over the next few days is forecast along and near part of the West Coast, with at least 2 inches expected across northwestern California, the southern Cascades, and the central and northern Sierra Nevada. Up to 7 inches may fall in isolated higher elevations, most or all of which would be snow. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy amounts (0.5 to 2.0 inches) are forecast across Washington and Oregon from the Cascades westward. Similar amounts are forecast for the northern Great Lakes, and most locations from the Deep South through central New England, with lesser amounts expected over much of the central and northern Carolinas. There is a lot of uncertainty in this area, depending on the development and track of an East Coast storm system that could affect the mid-Atlantic and lower Northeast over the weekend. Light to moderate totals are anticipated over a large part of the interior West, including the Great Basin, much of the northern Intermountain West, and the higher elevations across the Rockies. Several tenths of an inch are possible across the lower Great Lakes, middle and lower Ohio Valley, and the east side of the lower Mississippi Valley. Little or no precipitation is expected across the northern and southern Plains, southern Florida, and northern Maine. Above-normal temperatures are expected from the Southwest through most of the Plains, with many locations expected to average 5 to 11 deg. F above normal. In contrast, subnormal temperatures are forecast in the northernmost Plains, where daily highs could average as much as 9 deg. F below normal. Meanwhile, 5-day average anomalies are expected to range from -2 to -5 deg. F across northern California as well as the Ohio Valley and many locations farther east.

The 6- to 10-day outlook for February 24-28 depicts increased chances for below-normal precipitation across much of the southern tier of the contiguous U.S., from the extreme southern Rockies through the central Gulf Coast and most of Florida. Chances for abnormal dryness exceed 40 percent across most of Texas and some adjacent areas. Farther north, heavier than normal precipitation is at least nominally favored from the mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachians, central Plains, and Desert Southwest northward to the Canadian border. Chances for unusually unsettled weather exceed 60 percent across central and northern California, and top 50 percent central California northward across western Washington and Oregon, as well as the middle and lower Ohio Valley. In Alaska, drier than normal conditions are favored along western parts of the state while surplus amounts are more likely over eastern areas. Across Hawaii, above-normal amounts are marginally favored statewide. Meanwhile, warmer than normal weather is expected to dominate the contiguous 48 states from the Appalachians to the Intermountain West, with chances for significantly warmer than normal conditions topping 80 percent in western Texas. Areas somewhat favoring below-normal temperatures are restricted to the West Coast west of the Cascades, and over much of the Florida Peninsula. Considerably higher chances for unusually cold weather cover most of Alaska, reaching above 70 percent in southwestern parts of the state. In contrast, warmer than normal conditions are somewhat favored across Hawaii, especially across Kauai, Oahu, and the southern Big Island.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/17)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/16)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 58 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1681924 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (2/12)

The Lower 48 states and Alaska only saw degradations this week. There was a strong east-to-west temperature gradient again this week, with below-normal temperatures across much of the East and above-normal temperatures across the West. Another week of localized precipitation that missed large portions of the country led to expanding precipitation deficits. Degradations were also scattered across the West, from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies, including portions of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado. Although some mountain snow fell, critically low snowpack with snow-water equivalent levels below the 15th percentile continues to dominate much of the region and support ongoing drought expansion. Across the High Plains and into the western Midwest, one-class degradations followed another mostly dry week. In the Northeast, despite colder-than-normal temperatures, a continued lack of meaningful precipitation contributed to worsening conditions in parts of Pennsylvania and southern New England. In the South, from the eastern southern Plains of Oklahoma and Texas eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and the western Carolinas. Despite scattered precipitation in some locations, short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow, with drying soils and low streamflows supporting intensification. In southern Georgia and Florida, fire danger continues to rise, with parts of Florida reporting Keetch-Byram Drought Index values between 500 and 700.

In Hawaii, strong trade winds brought heavy precipitation and wind to the windward slopes of Molokai, Maui and the Big Island, where 4 to 10 inches of rain fell at lower elevations and snow at higher elevations, supporting one-class improvements in those areas.

Northeast

Precipitation was generally light across the region, with many areas receiving below-normal amounts outside of localized lake-effect snow. Short-term precipitation deficits over the past 30 to 60 days are 2 to 6 inches below normal across parts of Pennsylvania, New York and New England, especially in southern and coastal areas. Temperatures averaged 5 to 15 degrees below normal, limiting potentially beneficial snowmelt in northern New York and northern New England. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in eastern Pennsylvania and central New York. In Massachusetts, moderate drought (D1) expanded westward across central portions of the state and into southeastern areas where longer-term precipitation deficits and low groundwater persist. In northeastern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island and adjacent portions of south-central Massachusetts, abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced to reflect continued streamflow, groundwater concerns and ongoing precipitation deficits.

Southeast

Precipitation across the Southeast was generally light and uneven during the past week. Most areas received less than 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Large portions of Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas and north Florida recorded below 25 percent of normal precipitation for the week. Narrow bands of heavier rainfall brought localized 1 to 2 inch totals across parts of the central Gulf Coast and portions of the eastern Carolinas. Degradations across the region were driven by short- to medium-term precipitation deficits continuing to grow. Soil moisture remains below the 10th percentile across large portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, with some areas below the 5th percentile. Streamflows across parts of Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama remain in the single digits, and reservoir levels in portions of the Carolinas continue to run below seasonal averages. Moderate drought (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across portions of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in parts of Georgia, the South Carolina Upstate and portions of North Carolina where there are longer-term deficits, low streamflows and very low soil moisture percentiles.

Across Florida, widespread degradations were made as rainfall was scattered and light, with most areas receiving less than 0.5 inches. Extreme drought (D3) expanded across portions of north and south Florida, while moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) expanded across the central panhandle. Soil moisture percentiles remain below the 10th percentile across much of the state and below the 5th percentile in parts of central and southern Florida. Keetch-Byram Drought Index values range from 600 to above 700 in several areas, showing elevated to extreme fire potential. Wildfire activity increased during the week, and multiple water management districts, including the South Florida Water Management District, have issued water shortage advisories or warnings due to declining groundwater and surface water levels.

South

Drought conditions across the South continued to deteriorate this week, as much of the region received little to no meaningful precipitation. Most areas recorded below 50 percent of normal rainfall, with many locations under 25 percent of normal. Portions of middle and northeastern Tennessee received 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation, but amounts were insufficient to offset ongoing 30- to 90-day precipitation deficits. Degradations occurred across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley as short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow across Louisiana, Arkansas and portions of Texas and Oklahoma, with many areas 2 to 6 inches below normal over the past few months. Soil moisture percentiles remain below normal across much of the region and are particularly low in central Louisiana, southern Arkansas and parts of western Oklahoma and South Texas. Streamflows in several basins continue to run below seasonal averages, with some gauges in low percentiles following weeks of limited recharge.

In Deep South Texas, long-term dryness continues to intensify. From August 14, 2025, through February 10, 2026, Rio Grande City ranks as the fifth warmest and third driest on record dating back to 1928, while McCook ranks as the second warmest and sixth driest since 1942 according to NWS and NOAA. A nearby Texas Mesonet site near Hebbronville recorded just 3.81 inches over the past 180 days, and another Mesonet site along the Starr and Jim Hogg County line recorded 11.5 inches, with only 0.33 inches falling during December and January combined. Persistent six-month precipitation deficits and continued warmth reinforced long-term hydrologic stress across the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Midwest

It was another dry week across the Midwest, receiving little to no precipitation while temperatures remained below normal. Snow cover continues across the northern part and portions of the Great Lakes, keeping soils frozen. While most of the Midwest was unchanged this week, widespread degradations were made across portions of Illinois and Missouri where 3-to-6-month precipitation deficits grew, with low streamflows and below-normal groundwater levels. In central and southern Illinois, water table levels remain well below the 10th percentile at many monitoring sites, and streams are running near or below seasonal norms. Similar short- to mid-term precipitation deficits and declining streamflows supported expansion of dryness across parts of Missouri, including northwestern, south-central and southeastern areas, with additional intensification near the Missouri-Arkansas border where longer-term deficits continue to grow. Farther north and west, localized expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) occurred in portions of Minnesota and Iowa where recent weather systems largely missed and short-term soil moisture percentiles show drying.

High Plains

The High Plains saw little to no meaningful precipitation this week, with most of the region receiving less than 25 percent of normal and many locations at or below 5 percent of normal precipitation. Any snowfall was light and offered minimal liquid-equivalent benefit. In eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado, precipitation deficits continue to deepen with soil moisture percentiles declining, and recent above-normal temperatures led to drying where snow cover is limited. This led to expansion of moderate (D1) and severe drought (D2) across parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado into the southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle and the western Nebraska Sandhills. Similarly, growing short- to medium-term precipitation deficits, below-normal soil moisture percentiles and elevated evaporative demand led to the introduction of extreme drought (D3) to Nebraska’s Panhandle. Eastern Nebraska also saw the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) as the lack of precipitation has led to drying conditions. Across Kansas, degradations occurred primarily in the northwest, south and along the Missouri border in eastern Kansas following another dry week which, like the rest of the region, added to the growing precipitation deficits and drying soil moisture.

West

Precipitation across the West this week was light and uneven. Most low-elevation areas in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and western Colorado received little to no measurable liquid precipitation, with seven-day totals generally below 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Mountain snow did fall in portions of the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, but accumulations were locally light and patchy. Snowpack and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) percentiles remain well below normal at many SNOTEL sites: much of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado show SWE values in the lowest 15th percentile, with numerous locations in the single digits for this time of year.

Temperatures were above normal across broad areas of the interior West, especially in the Great Basin, central and eastern Wyoming, and northern Colorado, where daytime highs ran 5 to 15 degrees above average at times. These warmer temperatures limited snow accumulation in some basins and contributed to surface drying where snow cover was sparse or absent.

Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated precipitation helped maintain existing conditions in parts of western Washington, Oregon and northern California. However, low SWE percentiles and expanding short- to mid-term precipitation deficits led to the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and localized moderate drought (D1) in Washington. Despite seeing precipitation this week, areas of Montana still saw degradations where short- to mid-term precipitation deficits, low soil moisture percentiles and poor snowpack continue to be of concern. Across Utah, Nevada and western Colorado, persistent 2 to 4 month precipitation deficits combined with declining soil moisture and very low SWE percentiles (snow drought) led to further degradations. Many SNOTEL sites in the central Rockies and Great Basin continue to report levels below the 10th percentile for snowpack, with Colorado experiencing its worst snowpack-to-date on record, according to Denver Water and 9NEWS.

Caribbean

Drought conditions across Puerto Rico remained unchanged this week. Another cold front moved across the island, bringing beneficial rainfall to much of Puerto Rico. Many locations received near- to above-normal precipitation, and short-term rainfall deficits over the past 30 to 60 days have largely been erased.

Despite the recent rainfall, two areas of abnormal dryness (D0) were maintained. Lago Cidra remains at observational levels, and USGS-monitored wells in parts of southern Puerto Rico continue to range from observational to critical levels.

On St. Croix, most locations were fairly wet again this week. According to CoCoRaHs observations, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.66 inches in west-central St. Croix to 3.49 in the east. At East Hill, 2.41 inches of rain were observed. Precipitation anomalies over the last few months out to a year are mostly neutral or positive now. Depth to water at the well-monitoring site has not significantly risen, though the recent drop in well levels appears to have been halted in the last 10 days or so. Given the wetter weather from the past few weeks and the making up of short- and long-term rainfall deficits, conditions have improved to normal on St. Croix. On St. John, reported rainfall amounts ranged from 1.45 to 2.55 inches. Depth-to-water at the Susannaberg Well came up by a little over a foot this week. Rainfall anomalies from the past few months to year are now mostly near or above normal. Given the improved well level and alleviated rainfall deficits, conditions have improved to normal on St. John. On St. Thomas, reported rainfall amounts ranged from 1.42 to 2.17 inches this week. The last month has had well-above-normal rainfall, though the last three months are still drier than normal. Water levels have also risen in the last week by 2-3 feet at the Grade School 3 well. Given the recent rainfall and improved groundwater conditions, but remaining rainfall deficits at the three-month mark, conditions on St. Thomas were improved to short-term abnormal dryness.

Pacific

Conditions worsened across parts of southern Alaska this week. Little to no snowfall was observed across portions of the upper Kuskokwim River valley, where precipitation during the past week was minimal, and many locations received well below-normal amounts. As a result, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded northeastward in the upper Kuskokwim River valley.

Farther south, a small area of moderate drought (D1) was introduced southwest of McGrath. Recent ERA5-Land snow water equivalent (SWE) anomaly data show continued deficits in this area, with snowpack well below seasonal expectations. While temperatures were mixed across the region, the lack of recent snowfall combined with below-normal SWE supported the targeted degradation.

Hawaii experienced a very wet and windy period this week, driven by persistent strong trade winds that brought rainfall along windward slopes. Molokai, Maui and the Big Island received the highest totals, with widespread 4 to 10 inches of rain and isolated amounts near 15 inches at lower elevations according to NOAA/NSSL MRMS, while heavy snow fell at the highest elevations of the Big Island. Rainfall amounts exceeded 30 inches at Laupahoehoe on the Big Island, with 23.22 inches at Waikamoi on Maui.

As a result, one-category improvements were made along the windward sides of the islands, where repeated rainfall (and high-elevation snow) supported short-term hydrologic recovery. Localized impacts from saturated soils, including a few landslides and flooding, were reported, while leeward areas remained largely unchanged due to continued trade-wind rainfall shadowing.

American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Pago Pago reported at least 1.31 inches of rainfall this week, while at least 0.79 inches were reported at Siufaga Ridge and 1.07 inches were reported at Toa Ridge.

At least 1.6 inches of rainfall were reported this week at Koror, with several days of data missing. Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, as all four monitored islands received sufficient rainfall. Guam reported 3.84 inches of rain, Rota reported 1.92 inches of rain, Tinian reported 2.29 inches of rain and Saipan reported 1.83 inches.

Short-term abnormal dryness developed in Yap this week, where 1.69 inches of rain fell, marking the fourth consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rainfall. Given that early January was wetter, though, conditions are likely not yet close to moderate or worse drought. Woleai remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, where 1.06 inches of rain fell this week, following 3.02 inches last week. Chuuk remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 2.48 inches of rain fell this week. Lukunor also remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 1.73 inches of rain fell this week. Given a fairly dry last three weeks there, conditions are likely approaching abnormal dryness. Conditions remained normal in Nukuoro, where 4.81 inches of rain were reported this week. Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Kapingamarangi this week, though conditions have likely improved some given 2.39 inches of rain that fell there this week. Normal conditions continued in Pohnpei, where 4.74 inches of rain were reported. Short-term moderate drought continued this week on Pingelap, where only 0.44 inches of rain were reported. Conditions in Kosrae remained normal, where 3.11 inches of rain were reported. No Drought Monitor depictions were made in Fananu or Ulithi due to a lack of data availability.

Conditions remained normal in Kwajalein this week, where 1.8 inches of rain were reported. Conditions also remained normal in Ailinglaplap, where 3.59 inches of rain fell this week after a couple drier prior weeks. In Jaluit, conditions remained normal this week after 2.8 inches of rain fell. Conditions in Utirik degraded to severe short-term drought, where no rain was reported this week. Short-term moderate drought also continued on Wotje, where only 1.22 inches of rain have fallen to start February. Mili reported 3.66 inches of rain this week, and conditions remained normal there. Conditions also remained normal in Majuro, where 1.89 inches of rain fell this week.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days (Feb. 12–17), a widespread and active precipitation pattern is forecast across much of the western and southern U.S. The heaviest totals are expected from eastern Texas into Arkansas, where widespread amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast, with locally higher totals possible. Additional areas of 1 to 3 inches are expected across much of the lower Mississippi Valley, central Gulf Coast, and into portions of the Southeast. Farther west, widespread precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, and into the central and northern Rockies, where liquid-equivalent totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts in favored terrain. Lighter but still meaningful precipitation is forecast across portions of the Midwest and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In contrast, much of the northern Plains is expected to remain relatively dry during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook (Feb. 17–21) favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., including the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Southeast. The strongest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are centered over the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. Alaska favors below-normal temperatures across much of the mainland, while Hawaii is favored to see above-normal temperatures.

The CPC 6-10 day precipitation outlook (Feb. 17–21) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western United States, including California, the Great Basin, and the northern and central Rockies. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier from southern Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast and into Florida. Much of the central United States, including portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, is favored to see near-normal precipitation during this period.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (2/10)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (2/9)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 57 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1757733 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index dropped from 136 in December 2025 to 113 in January 2026. The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points while the Future Expectations Index dropped 25 points. Among the five indices that make up the AEB Index, the largest decline was in the question asking participants whether U.S. agriculture would have good times or bad times in the next five years. The index for this question fell from 122 to 88, marking its lowest point since September 2024. Respondents also expressed greater concerns about agricultural exports compared to last month. The January barometer survey took place from January 12-16, 2026. As a point of reference, the January WASDE report was released on January 12.

One-half of the producers surveyed reported that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago. Moreover, looking ahead 12 months, 30% expected worse financial performance, compared to 20% who expected better financial performance. At a reading of 47, the Farm Capital Investment Index decreased by 11 points from the previous month, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. Only 4% of the survey respondents indicated that they planned to increase farm machinery purchases in the upcoming year.

Since 2020, each January barometer survey has included questions about farmers’ operating loans for the upcoming year. The percentage of respondents who said they expect to have a larger operating loan this year compared to a year ago rose to 21%, up from 18% last year. In a follow-up question, producers who expect to have a larger operating loan were asked about the reasons for the increase. This year, 31% of producers who expect their loan size to increase said it was because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year, up from 23% in 2025, 17% in 2024, and only 5% in 2023. These results are consistent with respondents’ concerns about their financial performance.

Farmers’ perspective on U.S. agricultural exports was more pessimistic in January. Responding to a broad question about the future of agricultural exports, 16% of the respondents looked for exports to decline over the next five years. In contrast, only 5% of the respondents in December expected exports to decline. When asked to focus more specifically on soybeans, a key agricultural export, 21% of corn and soybean producers in January said they expect soybean exports to decline over the upcoming five years, up from 13% of growers who felt that way in December. Increasing competition from Brazil is weighing on producers’ minds. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports versus Brazil’s, with 44% indicating they were very concerned.

Respondents remained optimistic about short-term farmland values in January, but optimism regarding long-run land values waned. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained unchanged at 117. After reaching a new record high of 166 in December, the long-term index declined to 152 in January. Alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates were cited as the three factors having the most influence on farmland values.

This month’s survey included a question related to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December. Corn and soybean producers were asked about the use of these payments. Over 50% of the respondents indicated that these payments would be used to pay down debt. Another 25% of respondents said that they would use these payments to improve working capital. The remainder noted that these payments would be used for family living (10% of respondents) or to invest in farm machinery (12% of respondents).

As in the last few months, producers were asked if the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track”. The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment declined sharply in January amid growing concerns about the agricultural economy. The percentage of producers who expected there to be bad financial times in the next twelve months increased from 47% in December 2025 to 59% in January 2026, while the percentage of producers who thought U.S. agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years increased from 24% to 46%.

Respondents were also more concerned about exports in January, with 16% expecting exports to decrease in the next five years. When asked about operating loans in the upcoming year, 21% indicated that they expected their operating loan to increase. Although an increase in input costs was the primary reason for this increase, 31% indicated that the increase was due to unpaid operating debt from prior years. Finally, despite the announcement of the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments in late December, the percentage of producers who thought the U.S. was heading in the right direction dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Taken together, these results suggest that producer sentiment shifted notably at the turn of the year, with farmers beginning 2026 in a more pessimistic frame of mind.

Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report for Arizona is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 7% very short, 1% short, 92% adequate. Subsoil moisture 7% very short, 1% short, 92% adequate. Alfalfa hay harvest condition 54% none, 3% light, 6% moderate, 37% active. Alfalfa hay crop condition 5% fair, 61% good, 34% excellent. Barley planted 32% and emerged 31%. Durum wheat planted 47% and emerged 26%. Pasture and range condition 29% very poor, 16% poor, 38% fair, 17% good. January precipitation was mixed, with pockets of above average moisture in the northeastern and southeastern corners, while the remainder of the State recorded at or below average moisture. Average temperatures ran at or above average. Survey comments indicated ditch clean-up was done in some counties, and irrigation water had been turned on. Ranchers across several counties reported severely limited vegetation and failed crops which has resulted in herd downsizing. Supplemental feed and water were necessary to support livestock herds. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 32 percent of the State was drought free, compared with no drought free areas a year ago. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 28 percent, and severe drought (D2) at 6 percent. 

CALIFORNIA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 90% adequate and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 95% adequate and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 55% good and 45% excellent. Winter wheat condition 30% good and 70% excellent. As of February 2, Snowpack content was 7.2 inches in the Northern Sierra region, 10.1 inches in the Central Sierra region, and 11.9 inches in the Southern Sierra region. January is typically one of the wetter months for California, however this January saw about three weeks of dry weather. Winter forage planting continued throughout the month and was completed by month’s end. Winter wheat, oats, and barley were well established and growing well. Alfalfa fields continued to grow slowly. Field prep for spring and summer crops began. Winter vegetables continued to grow. Planted onions have sprouted and leaves emerged from the soil. Carrot harvest continued in the southern San Joaquin Valley but was hampered by wet weather at times, with occasional rainfall limiting field access and delaying harvest. Cauliflower, celery, garlic, and kale harvests were ongoing. While nearing the end of dormancy, almond orchards were being cleared of brush. Mummy shaking was winding down. Field crews weeded and sprayed almond orchards for pest control. Buds on almond trees were enlarging and will begin to open in February. Pre-emergent herbicides and dormant pesticides sprays were applied to fruit orchards. Stone fruit orchards were pruned throughout the month with leaf buds beginning to open by month’s end on the earliest varieties. Kiwi harvest was complete and vines were pruned. Pomegranate trees began entering dormancy and were pruned. Grape vineyards were pruned and vines were tied. Navel orange, grapefruit, pummelo, mandarin, and lemons were harvested; however wet weather and fog affected harvest conditions, rind quality, and pack out percentages. Avocados were harvested. Olive orchards continued to be pruned and cleaned. Blackberry, raspberry, blueberry and strawberry harvests were ongoing. Calving was underway and expected to continue into next month. Sheep grazed on retired cropland and on harvested grain and alfalfa fields. Conditions were ideal for pasture growth with cool, mild temperatures and some rainfall. Both irrigated and non-irrigated pastures were in good to excellent condition. 

IDAHO: The average January temperature was above normal across the State. Snowpack levels were below normal with limited precipitation. Pastures and crop fields were dry, with low soil moisture. Calving progressed well due to the mild weather, and hay stocks remained good, but producers remained concerned about the continued dryness and its potential impacts on crops and livestock if conditions did not improve. Producers transitioned from pastures and started feeding hay. Winter cutworms were observed feeding on fall wheat at lower elevations in Nez Perce County. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 27% very short, 48% short, 25% adequate. Subsoil moisture 29% very short, 53% short, 17% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 21% poor, 59% fair, 18% good, 1% excellent. Winter wheat - wind damage was 25% none, 57% light, 16% moderate, 2% severe. Winter wheat - freeze and drought damage 78% none, 20% light, 2% moderate. Winter wheat - protectiveness of snow cover 93% very poor, 1% poor, 2% fair, 4% good. Pasture and range condition 47% very poor, 24% poor, 18% fair, 10% good, 1% excellent. Livestock grazing accessibility 72% open, 11% difficult, 17% closed. Cows calved 2%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 93%. Ewes lambed 2%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 92%. January precipitation was average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran at average to well above average. Survey comments supported the noted weather information. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 43 percent of the State was drought free, compared with just over 3 percent January 28, 2025. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 13 percent, severe drought (D2) at 8 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at just over 1 percent. 

NEVADA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 35% short, 50% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 10% very short, 15% short, 70% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% very poor, 30% poor, 40% fair, 15% good, and 10% excellent. January was a dry month in Nevada with little to no precipitation. As of January 27, 45% of the State was abnormally dry, while 20% was in Moderate Drought and 1% was in Severe Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

OREGON: Temperatures were above normal throughout the State. Snowpack was below normal throughout the State. In Western Oregon, blueberry buds swelled, and agronomic crops looked good. Cool season pasture grasses resumed active growth early due to drier and warmer weather. Many deciduous shrubs and trees began to bud, and bulbs began to grow. Field activities centered on manure applications. Cows were let out during a 2 week period with low precipitation. Some fruit trees presented bud development. In north central Oregon, fall seeded crops progressed rapidly due to the rainfall and above average temperatures. Grasses greened up, and conditions were favorable for calving. Challenges like predator pressure remain on livestock operations. Snowpack was noticeably lower compared to normal years. Stripe rust symptoms were observed on susceptible varieties of soft white winter wheat. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 2% very short, 45% short, 53% adequate. Subsoil moisture 40% short, 60% adequate. Pasture and range condition 1% very poor, 8% poor, 22% fair, 69% good. Winter wheat condition 10% fair, 90% good. Hay and roughage supplies 6% short, 90% adequate, 4% surplus. Stock water supplies 5% very short, 25% short, 65% adequate, 5% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 7% fair, 47% good, 46% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 19% fair, 79% good, 2% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 83%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 45%. Cows calved 4%. Ewes lambedfarm flock 3%. Ewes lambed-range flock 2%. Mild temperatures along with a few snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of January. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Beaver, Cache, and Grand Counties noted mild and abnormally dry conditions during January, with below–normal snowpack. February 2, 2026, was 57 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Beaver County reports noted that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues. 

WASHINGTON: In Washington, January was unusually dry and warm. Western Washington observed 14 consecutive days without measurable rain, and temperatures were unseasonably warm. The dry streak ended by the end of the month. Dry January weather worsened snow water equivalent in the Cascade Range and across most of Washington. In Central Washington, farmers were worried about the impact of a lack of snow and the potential risks of drought and wildfires. Northeast Washington had the best snowpack, especially near the Canadian border. East Central and Southeast Washington were both abnormally mild and dry. There was little to no snow on the ground, with minimal in the mountains. The winter wheat crop looked good; however, producers were raising concern about the lack of moisture and the potential impact on water resources this coming spring and summer. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of January 2026. Topsoil moisture 43% very short, 24% short, 33% adequate. Subsoil moisture 47% very short, 28% short, 25% adequate. Winter wheat condition 13% very poor, 30% poor, 51% fair, 6% good. Cows calved 2%. Ewes lambed 4%. Livestock condition 1% poor, 16% fair, 79% good, 4% excellent. Pasture and range condition 8% very poor, 31% poor, 37% fair, 21% good, 3% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 3% short, 88% adequate, 9% surplus. Stock water supplies 18% short, 73% adequate, 9% surplus. January precipitation varied from average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran at average to well above average. Survey comments noted extreme dryness across several counties. Producer concerns centered around diminished snowpack across most mountain ranges in the State. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for January 27, roughly 18 percent of the State was drought free, compared with just under 1 percent drought free on January 28, 2025. Other drought categorizations included, abnormally dry (D0) at 44 percent, moderate drought (D1) at 21 percent, and severe drought (D2) at 17 percent.

This Week's Drought Summary (2/5)

There was a strong west-to-east temperature gradient this week, with temperatures below normal in the East, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, and above normal in the West. Precipitation was scarce across large portions of the nation, with many areas receiving less than 25% of normal precipitation. Areas of localized precipitation fell across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and the Great Lakes region. Out east, a winter storm brought snow and mixed precipitation to parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas, with locally heavy snowfall in some locations.

Across the West, snowpack remains well below the seasonal average. Even in areas that received snow, low snowpack combined with dry soils and low streamflows led to degradations across the Intermountain West. Along the West Coast, precipitation remained limited and uneven. Western Oregon saw dry and drought conditions expand toward the Pacific coast and into far south Washington and northwest California.

Elsewhere, scattered degradations occurred across the South and Southeast, where another week without precipitation added to growing precipitation deficits, except for localized areas of improvement that continued to benefit from last week’s heavy snowfall. Other isolated areas of improvement were seen in southern New Mexico and in the Midwest and Northeast.

Northeast

Cold temperatures and limited frozen precipitation led to persistent conditions across the Northeast, outside of areas of localized improvements to New York. Except for areas of lake-effect snow, the Northeast received little precipitation. In New York, longer-term indicators supported several targeted improvements where precipitation deficits and groundwater conditions showed gradual recovery. Elsewhere across the Northeast, conditions remained unchanged, though streamflows across much of the region remain below normal and soil moisture indicators are showing dry conditions at deeper layers.

Southeast

Precipitation patterns generally drove drought changes across the Southeast this week. While some areas continued to benefit from moisture that fell earlier in the winter, much of the region experienced a mostly dry and cold week. A winter storm this week did bring well-above-normal precipitation to the coastal Carolinas, much of it falling as snow. The combination of frozen precipitation and cooler temperatures limited the immediate hydrologic benefits, leaving the area unchanged.

Across the central Gulf Coast region, extending from southern Mississippi through southern Georgia and into northern Florida, conditions continued to deteriorate following another week without precipitation. A growing precipitation deficit, very low streamflows, declining soil moisture and increasing fire danger led to degradation across parts the region. Extreme drought (D3) from southern Georgia into northern Florida broadly expanded farther south across the Florida Peninsula, precipitation deficits continued to grow after missing out on meaningful precipitation. This led to one-category degradations across the central peninsula, with the introduction of severe drought conditions (D3) southeast of Tampa Bay. The southern Everglades area saw the introduction of severe drought (D3) due to extremely low groundwater levels, minimal surface water availability and elevated fire danger. Virginia remained unchanged outside of one-class degradations in the southeast, where recent precipitation was insufficient to offset longer-term deficits.

South

Drought conditions across the South generally continued to worsen this week, as much of the region received little to no precipitation. Temperatures were near to slightly above normal across large portions of the region. Outside of a few localized improvements in northeast Louisiana and southeast Mississippi from last week’s winter storm, conditions continued to degrade across most of the region. Across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, one-category degradations were seen across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and southwest Mississippi after another dry week with no meaningful precipitation. Short- to mid-term precipitation deficits continue to grow and soil moisture continues to decline, along with streamflows.

Midwest

Cold temperatures and limited frozen precipitation led to persistent conditions across the Midwest, outside of areas of localized changes. Cold conditions kept soils frozen across northern portions of the Midwest, limiting infiltration and preventing recent moisture or snowmelt from entering the hydrologic system. As a result, short-term improvements to soil moisture and streamflows were minimal. Western Michigan saw a localized improvement where another week of snowfall along the Lake Michigan shoreline, combined with improving longer-term precipitation indicators, supported modest recovery. Across parts of the western and central Midwest, minor degradations were introduced as conditions continued to dry, including the introduction of extreme drought (D3) in southwest Missouri along the Missouri-Oklahoma border. In these areas, precipitation during the past several weeks has been limited, and short- and mid-term precipitation deficits continued to grow, combined with declining soil moisture and below-normal streamflows.

High Plains

Conditions across the central and northern High Plains were mostly unchanged this week, as most of the region received little to no meaningful precipitation. Cold temperatures persisted, and where snow did fall, it remained largely frozen in place, limiting short-term benefits to soils or hydrologic conditions. Conditions across the Wyoming and Colorado Plains continued to deteriorate. Snow water equivalent (SWE) remains well below average, with SNOTEL data showing values generally in the 50 to 70 percent of median range, reflecting how snowpack continues to fall short for this time of year despite recent snowfall. Severe drought (D2) expanded from southeastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and a little into the Nebraska Panhandle. Abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D2) also expanded across portions of Kansas.

West

Across much of the West, conditions worsened, driven by a deepening snow drought, limited precipitation, and above-normal temperatures that continued to undermine snowpack development. While some mountain snowfall occurred, amounts were generally modest and failed to keep pace with early February climatological accumulation rates, causing snowpack deficits to expand across much of the region.

The Intermountain West saw conditions intensified as snow accumulation continues to fall well short of what is expected this time of the year. Numerous SNOTEL sites reported SWE below the 15th percentile, with several stations registering the lowest SWE on record for early February. These snowpack deficits were compounded by limited recent precipitation, declining soil moisture, and below-normal streamflows, particularly across northern Idaho and western Montana and extending into central and southern Montana and Wyoming. Similarly, Colorado and Utah saw conditions deteriorate as SWE levels are well below the median level along with drier soil moisture.

Across southwestern Idaho, northern Nevada and into eastern Oregon, persistent warmth, scarce precipitation, poor low-elevation snowpack, and low streamflows led to the expansion of abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions as well as the introduction of moderate drought (D2) along the Idaho-Wyoming border. SNOTEL stations in the Owyhee, Independence and Snake Mountains are reporting SWE levels between the ninth percentile to the worst on record.

Along the Pacific Coast, centered over Oregon, abnormally dry (D0) conditions expanded into southern Washington and northwestern California as the mid-winter dry spell continues, with poor snowpack development, very low streamflows, and limited soil moisture recovery outside the highest elevations (SNOTEL SWE percentile map; state precipitation and streamflow maps).

The only improvement across the West occurred in southern New Mexico, where precipitation from earlier storm systems continued to translate into measurable hydrologic response, supporting localized improvements and one-category improvements.

Caribbean

Abnormally dry conditions across Puerto Rico improved across the northern portion of the island, following heavy rainfall from a passing cold front. Rainfall was most impactful across northwestern and northeastern portions of the island, where streams ran high and rainfall deficits were erased or reduced, supporting the removal of D0 in those areas. Temperatures were near to slightly above normal.

Elsewhere across the island, conditions were held steady. In the interior, water supply concerns persist near Cidra, where Lago Cidra remains at observational levels. Across southeastern Puerto Rico, USGS-monitored wells near Salinas and Santa Isabel continue to run low, supporting no change in drought depiction for those areas.

Wet weather struck western parts of St. Croix this week, where CoCoRaHs observations suggested widespread rainfall amounts over 2 inches. In the east, this week’s weather was drier, and depth-to-water at the well monitoring site continued to drop slightly. Short-term abnormal dryness was maintained this week, though this mostly describes conditions in the east, as conditions have likely improved in western St. Croix after this week’s heavier rains. On St. John, conditions improved to short-term abnormal dryness after rainfall observations of 1.5 and 2.32 inches were reported and well depth-to-water rose slightly. Short-term moderate drought continued on St. Thomas, where rainfall observations ranged from 0.74-0.84 inches.

Pacific

Conditions worsened across parts of western Alaska this week. Temperatures were near to above normal, and while some snowfall did occur, amounts were light and uneven, providing little benefit and causing SWE to remain well below normal across affected areas.

In addition, a small area of moderate drought (D1) was introduced east of Kotzebue, where SWE was modeled at less than half of the 1991–2020 median. Elsewhere across the state, conditions were largely unchanged, though snowpack deficits continue to be monitored as the winter season progresses.

Drought conditions across Hawaii were unchanged this week. Temperatures were near to slightly above normal, and a frontal system brought light to locally moderate rainfall, generally around 0.5 to 1 inch, with the highest amounts confined to windward-facing terrain. Despite the rainfall, streamflows showed little response.

Rainfall amounts this week on Palau ranged from 1.58 inches at the National Weather Service office to 2.07 inches at Koror. While the weather has been generally drier recently, conditions are not yet in the abnormal dryness category.

At Toa Ridge, 7.37 inches of rain were reported this week, and at least 11 inches of rain fell in Pago Pago. Given the very wet weather this week, conditions remained normal in American Samoa.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Saipan received 3.49 inches of rain this week, continuing a recent wet stretch that resulted in record wetness in January after almost 10 inches of rain fell last week. In Tinian, 1.14 inches of rain were reported this week. Rota received 7.07 inches of rain this week. Guam received 2.17 inches at the National Weather Service office, while a CoCoRaHs observer near Piti (on the west coast) reported 1.88 inches of rain.

In Yap, 1.68 inches of rain fell this week, marking the third consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. However, given that January as a whole was wetter than normal, conditions have not yet fallen into abnormal dryness. In Woleai, 0.46 inches of rain were reported, though 3 days were missing from this week’s data. Three of the previous four weeks also had over 2 inches of rainfall, so conditions remained normal. In Chuuk, 1.41 inches of rain fell this week, marking the second week in a row with under 2 inches of rain. The previous 2 weeks were much wetter, though, so conditions remained normal. In Lukunor, 0.94 inches of rain fell this week, continuing a recent mainly drier pattern. However, given that over 4 inches of rain fell a couple weeks ago, conditions have not yet slipped into abnormal dryness. In Nukuoro, 1.78 inches of rain fell, marking a second week of below 2 inches of rain. However, over 6 inches of rain fell a couple weeks ago, so conditions remained normal. Conditions in Kapingamarangi slipped to short-term abnormal dryness, where just 0.31 inches of rain this week continued a stretch when six of the last seven weeks have totaled less than 2 inches of rain. In Pohnpei, 5.38 inches of rain fell this week, and conditions remained normal. In Pingelap, short-term moderate drought continued after 0.8 inches of rain fell this week. Conditions in Kosrae remained normal, where 7.85 inches of rain fell this week. No Drought Monitor depictions were made in Ulithi or Fananu, as no data were available for either location.

In Kwajalein, 0.24 inches of rain were reported this week, marking the third consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain. Given that over 7 inches of rain fell the week prior to this stretch, conditions are not quite at abnormal dryness, but the recent dry pattern will continue to be monitored. In Ailinglaplap, 1.61 inches of rain were reported, marking a second week in a row with less than 2 inches of rain, continuing a mostly dry pattern. Almost 4 inches of rain fell a couple weeks ago, so conditions are not quite abnormally dry, but the recent dryness will continue to be monitored. Conditions remained normal in Jaluit, where 3.03 inches of rain fell. Short-term moderate drought continued in Utirik and Wotje. The first few days of February in Utirik saw just 0.04 inches of rain, while Wotje has received 1.12 inches. Only 0.92 inches of rain fell in Majuro this week, marking two weeks in a row with less than 2 inches of rainfall. However, conditions there remain normal given a wetter pattern before the last two weeks. Mili has received 0.32 inches of rain so far in February, and conditions remained normal there.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, an active weather pattern is expected across much of the continental U.S., with several regions showing a strong signal for precipitation. The heaviest precipitation is forecast from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, where widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Portions of the central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes are anticipated to receive generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation during this period. Across the West, precipitation is expected to be widespread from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies. Liquid-equivalent totals of 1 to 3 inches are forecast in the Cascades and northern Rockies, with locally higher amounts possible at higher elevations. Farther south into the Great Basin and Southwest, precipitation becomes more scattered, with most areas receiving less than 0.5 inches, and many locations remaining dry. Drier conditions are expected to persist across California, the northern Great Plains, central and southern Texas, and much of the Florida Peninsula, where little to no precipitation is forecast over the next week.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day temperature outlook (Feb. 10-14) shows a strong and widespread signal for above-normal temperatures across much of the continental U.S. The highest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are centered over the central and southern Plains, extending northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Much of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and interior West also favors above-normal temperatures. Along the West Coast, temperatures are expected to be near normal, while parts of the Northeast show a transition from below normal in northern New England to near or above normal farther south. Portions of the Southeast, including Florida, are favored to see near-normal temperatures. Alaska shows a mix of near- to below-normal temperatures across the mainland, with near-normal conditions favored over the southern coast. Hawaii is favored to experience above-normal temperatures during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day precipitation outlook (Feb. 10–14) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western U.S., including the Southwest and West Coast, with elevated probabilities extending into parts of the northern Rockies. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across Alaska and Hawaii during this period. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across Florida and portions of the far Southeast, while much of the central U.S. is expected to see near-normal precipitation.