This Week's Drought Summary (3/19)

This week, a powerful storm system crossed from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Midwest, and a historic blizzard to portions of the Upper Midwest, especially in northern Wisconsin and Michigan near Lake Superior. Total precipitation amounts exceeded 2 inches in a large area of the western Great Lakes, while lighter amounts, mostly 0.5-3 inches of precipitation, fell across parts of the southern and eastern Contiguous U.S. Improvements to ongoing drought and dryness occurred across large portions of the Midwest, parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley, and in the Northeast outside of northern New England. Heavy rain and, in some areas, mountain snow, fell across parts of the Northwest, locally improving drought conditions. However, significant deficits in snow still exist in many parts of the West, including the Pacific Northwest, which limited the longer-term benefits of the precipitation that fell. Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week. Precipitation deficits, and lack of snowpack in the mountains, continued to worsen amid high evaporative demand, leading to widespread worsening of abnormal dryness and drought, especially in South Dakota and Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and parts of Oregon that missed out on precipitation. A kona low delivered heavy precipitation to all of Hawaii this week, leading to widespread 1- and local 2-category improvements to ongoing drought conditions from Molokai eastward.

Northeast

In the Northeast, 0.5-2 inches of precipitation fell this week, with local amounts in the 2-3 inch range, leading to some improvements to conditions in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern New England. In many areas that saw conditions improve, long-term precipitation deficits had lessened in severity and groundwater levels rose. Two or more inches of precipitation were most common this week downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, central and northeast Pennsylvania, Connecticut and eastern Maine. Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across the entire region; temperatures were mostly 6-12 degrees above normal in New England, and 9-12 degrees above normal elsewhere.

Southeast

In the Southeast, drought conditions worsened in a few areas, improved in a few areas, and remained unchanged for most as drought and abnormal dryness maintained a hold in the region. Heavy rain fell this week in central and northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia, and amounts checked in at or above 2 inches in most locations. Given the very dry conditions beforehand in northwest Georgia, this rain acted more to prevent worsening drought. In central Alabama, the rain improved soil moisture and precipitation deficits enough for improvement in some areas of abnormal dryness or moderate drought. A similar story played out in a few locales in North Carolina, though with lesser rain amounts, improvements were much more isolated. Severe drought expanded or contracted in a couple spots in South Carolina (due to worsening or improving precipitation deficits and soil moisture), though conditions across the Palmetto State remained mostly the same. Exceptional drought developed along the Florida-Georgia state line, where soil moisture and precipitation deficits worsened and several streamflow gauges moved into record-low territory for mid-March. Severe drought expanded in west-central Virginia, as soil moisture remained low and 6-month precipitation deficits highlighted worsening conditions amid temperatures ranging from 9-12 degrees warmer than normal for the week. Very heavy rain fell in parts of Miami-Dade County in Florida, resulting in some improvements to drought conditions, though the benefit of the heavy rain was likely limited given runoff and very low water levels in the Everglades. Airboat operators in the Everglades have recently had to pause or re-route tours given how low water levels have been there.

South

A strong low pressure system traversed the Great Plains into the Midwest with it, bringing widespread strong winds, locally heavy rain and a powerful blizzard to the Upper Great Lakes. Weekly precipitation amounts ranged from 2-3 inches, locally more, from central and northern Illinois to eastern Wisconsin, the central and eastern Michigan Upper Peninsula, and much of the Michigan Lower Peninsula (excluding southeast areas) and northern Indiana. Improvements occurred across much of Illinois, Wisconsin, most parts of Michigan that still were experiencing drought or abnormal dryness, and parts of Missouri, Iowa, western Kentucky, Indiana and northeast Ohio. Longer-term precipitation deficits and paltry streamflow still exist in parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, though recent precipitation has alleviated conditions in some areas, so widespread improvements were made this week. The impact of recent precipitation on soil moisture and streamflow in the Midwest will continue to be monitored in the coming weeks. Recent precipitation and improvements in soil moisture and precipitation deficits led to the aforementioned local improvements in Missouri, Iowa and northwest Kentucky. Weekly temperatures were 3-9 degrees below normal in northwest Minnesota, as cold air wrapped around the powerful storm system, while temperatures in the southern half of the Midwest were 3-12 degrees warmer than normal for mid-March.

Midwest

This week, parts of east Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee benefitted from localized rains of at least 2 inches. Elsewhere, deep south Texas, western Texas, and northern and western Oklahoma were mostly dry this week. Temperatures across the region were warmer than normal, with readings varying widely from a degree or two above normal to 9-12 degrees above normal. Soil moisture levels improved and precipitation shortfalls lessened in parts of east-central Texas, Louisiana and southeast Arkansas, leading to localized improvements to drought conditions in these areas. Despite heavier rains, a small area of extreme drought shifted northeast in southeast Tennessee due to very large precipitation deficits that continued this week. Growing short-term precipitation deficits led to the development of severe drought in a small area of northwest Tennessee. Heavy rain in Dallas improved local conditions. Warm, dry and windy conditions were the rule elsewhere in the southern Great Plains and deep south Texas, leading to localized degradations in central and northern Texas, deep south Texas, south-central and northwest Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles.

High Plains

In the southern half of the High Plains region, warmer-than-normal weather continued this week amid mainly dry and frequently windy conditions. Degradation in drought conditions was widespread across Nebraska and southern parts of South Dakota. A deadly wildfire in western Nebraska, the Morrill Fire, has burned a record amount of land for Nebraska wildfires. This fire, and others across Nebraska, occurred amid weather conditions favorable for fire growth and a background of worsening drought conditions. The Great Plains of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado also saw worsening drought and abnormal dryness this week, as precipitation deficits continued to mount along with warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter and early spring. Large precipitation deficits and above-normal evaporative demand over the last several months led to extreme drought development in parts of the Black Hills in southwest South Dakota. Colder temperatures and some precipitation kept conditions unchanged (and mostly free of drought or abnormal dryness) in North Dakota and northern South Dakota.

West

Current drought conditions in the West continued to be headlined by snow drought this week. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of the San Juan Mountains in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico saw widespread worsening conditions this week. Overall dry and warm conditions worsened both precipitation deficits and snowpack conditions in these areas. Some snow-water monitoring sites in the region have seen near-full or full melting of snowpack. Degradations to ongoing drought and dryness were also widespread in Arizona this week, where warmer-than-normal temperatures combined with dry weather to worsen short-term precipitation deficits, increase evaporative demand and support low streamflow levels. High-elevation parts of Arizona that usually have snow on the ground in mid-March are also suffering from snow drought. This combination of drier- and warmer-than-normal weather and snow drought may set the state for drought conditions to worsen in the coming weeks if weather conditions remain warm and dry. Warmer-than-normal and dry weather occurred this week in Nevada, worsening conditions in some areas, especially in the north, where impacts are being reported as a result of unusually warm and dry weather over the last several months and meagre mountain snow. Due to locally heavy precipitation or lack thereof, a mix of small-scale improvements and degradations occurred in Oregon. Amid the snow drought, localized degradations occurred in southwest Idaho, while heavier mountain snows improved snowpack in some mountain ranges in parts of western Montana, leading to localized improvements. The effectiveness of this locally renewed snowpack in improving soil moisture will be analyzed further in the weeks ahead.

Caribbean

Generally drier conditions continued this week in southern Puerto Rico in a small area of abnormal dryness. Otherwise, the island remained free of abnormal dryness or drought this week.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, recent weather conditions have featured occasional showers and gusty trade winds, due to high pressure anchored over the North Atlantic. At Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix, peak easterly wind gusts to 40 mph or higher were clocked on March 8, 10, and 16. On St. Thomas, heavy rain was observed on March 12-13, when 24-hour totals near 2 inches were recorded in several locations. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at all time periods for multiple sites on the three major islands are supportive of neither dryness nor drought. Therefore, the U.S. Virgin Islands have a “clean” drought map for the fourth consecutive week. Other evidence, including the Vegetation Health Index and well data from the U.S. Geological Survey, also supports drought-free conditions. Current depths to water include 20.5 feet at the Adventure 28 well on St. Croix, about 3.7 feet greater than a year ago, and 13.3 feet at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well on St. John, about 4.4 feet greater than a year ago.

Pacific

Primarily drier-than-normal weather occurred this week in Alaska, though this also occurred amid temperatures ranging from 10-25 degrees below normal outside of southeast Alaska and the North Slope. No changes were made to ongoing areas of abnormal dryness, and most of the state remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

Very heavy rain amounts fell across Hawaii this week, associated with the passage of a kona low, leading to one- or 2-category improvements across all islands from Molokai eastward. As of March 17, Kahului, in central Maui, had already received a record amount of rain, 16.36 inches, for both March and any month on record. Many measuring sites from Maui westward received at least 8 inches above their normal rainfall for the week, while some locations in the southern Big Island received 16-20 inches above their normal weekly rain. Agricultural damage from the storm system was also reported in portions of Oahu. Portions of central Maui improved from extreme to moderate drought this week, and further improvements may be necessary in the weeks ahead as the effect of this week’s storm system is analyzed more.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, the drought-monitoring period began with Tropical Depression Nuri meandering near Yap, across northwestern parts of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), before dissipating on March 12. All monitored sites in the FSM remained free of drought and abnormal dryness, with missing data noted for Fananu, Pingelap, and Ulithi. Meanwhile, historically wet weather prevailed during the first half of March in the Marianas. At Guam International Airport, month-to-date rainfall through the 17th totaled 12.12 inches (762% of normal). Guam International Airport’s wettest March on record occurred in 1971, with 16.94 inches. There were neither dryness- nor drought-related concerns in the Marianas and the Republic of Palau, which has also experienced a wet March to date. In contrast, weekly rainfall at Pago Pago International Airport in American Samoa was less than 2 inches for the fifth time in the last six drought-monitoring periods. Given American Samoa’s short-term dryness at the international airport and other locations, abnormal dryness (D0-S) was retained on Tutuila for a fourth consecutive week. Elsewhere, northern atolls in the Marshall Islands remained quite dry, with severe drought (D2-S) persisting on Utirik and Wotje for a fourth consecutive week. Since December 1, 2025, less than 4 inches of rain has fallen on Utirik, while approximately 7 inches has fallen on Wotje.

Looking Ahead

Through the evening of Monday, March 23, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center’s forecast depicts mostly dry weather across a large swath of the Contiguous U.S. Precipitation totaling 0.5-1 inch may fall from West Virginia into New York, and in spots in New England. Similar precipitation amounts are forecast in parts of northwest Montana and the Idaho Panhandle. Western Washington is forecast to receive widespread precipitation amounts of at least 1 inch, with some favored mountainous areas forecast to receive 2.5-5 inches of precipitation (or locally more). Elsewhere, the forecast calls for precipitation amounts to remain at or below 0.5 inches, with most of the Great Plains, Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, and the Gulf Coast states likely to remain completely dry.

Looking ahead from March 24-28, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the West, especially in the Southwest, and across much of the Great Plains and South. Near- or below-normal temperatures are favored from northern North Dakota eastward through the Great Lakes into much of the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is favored in Washington, northern Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana, and from northern Michigan eastward across the northern half of the Northeast. Wetter-than-normal weather is also forecast in central and southern Florida. Elsewhere in the contiguous United States, below-normal precipitation is more likely, especially from the Great Plains to Utah, Nevada, the Desert Southwest and California.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/17)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (3/16)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 66 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1358895 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (3/12)

Following a drier-than-normal winter, a pattern change at the beginning of March resulted in widespread heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) and a 1-category improvement to parts of the Ohio and Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley. This drought improvement extended east to the Central Appalachians and the Northeast. However, a long-term drought continues for much of the Northeast. Despite the much-needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Southern Great Plains, severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persists for many areas. A low snowpack and early onset of snowmelt are a major drought concern for the West. As of March 10, drought of varying intensity was designated for parts of Hawaii. Alaska and Puerto Rico remain drought-free. 

Northeast

Widespread precipitation of 1 to 2 inches led to a 1-category improvement to parts of southeastern New York, northern New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Despite the recent beneficial precipitation since late February, a long-term drought of varying intensity persists for much of the Northeast. This long-term drought depiction is supported by the meteorological and hydrological drought metrics. For example, 28-day average streamflows remain low (below the 10th percentile) from the Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Note that the drought impact was changed to long-term only for much of the Northeast where short-term drought has mostly ended. 

Southeast

Small improvements in the Southeast region were made near Mobile (around 5" rainfall from March 3-9) and across northern Alabama. Extreme (D3) drought was expanded in northeastern Georgia as 90 to 120-day precipitation deficits continue to increase and low streamflows persist in the upper headwaters of the Chattahoochee River. Increasing short-term precipitation deficits resulted in a 1-category degradation across southwestern Virginia. Consistent with a La Nina winter, drought has worsened the past few months across Florida with more than two-thirds of the Sunshine State designated with extreme (D3) drought.  According to the National Interagency Fire Center, a wildfire at Florida’s Big Cypress National Preserve has grown to over 35,000 acres burned. 

South

Despite the locally heavy rainfall across the Lower Mississippi Valley along with eastern Oklahoma and Texas, only modest improvements were warranted as a favorable response among the various indicators was not enough to justify more widespread 1-week changes. However, targeted 1-category improvements were made to parts of northwestern Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley where weekly precipitation amounts exceeded 2 inches. In areas that missed out on the beneficial rainfall, drought intensified for parts of west-central Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle. A majority of the South Region has received less than half their normal precipitation with a temperature departure of more than 6 degrees F above normal during the past 90 days. These 3-month precipitation and temperature observations are consistent with a La Nina wintertime pattern. 

Midwest

Major drought improvement occurred across the Midwest Region as a couple of low pressure systems and associated fronts tracked through the central U.S. during early March. A 1-category improvement was generally made to areas that received 1.5 inches or more of precipitation from March 3 to 9. This included central to southern Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio along with east-central and southern Missouri. Given the time of year, this recent precipitation was very beneficial in recharging soil moisture. There was a sharp cutoff to the heavier precipitation (near the I-70 corridor) with severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought continuing farther to the north across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. 

High Plains

Widespread drought of varying intensity continues across much of the Central Great Plains and Central Rockies. Drought expanded this past week to include all of southwestern Colorado and intensified for northwestern parts of the state. The low snowpack throughout the Central Rockies, especially Colorado, remains a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 10, snow water equivalent for the river basins of Colorado is running below 70 percent of the 1991-2020 average. There were a couple exceptions to the worsening conditions. A wet snow (1” or more, liquid equivalent) supported the removal of extreme (D3) drought across parts of the Denver metro area. Heavy rainfall (more than 1.5 inches) prompted small 1-category improvements to eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. 

West

The low snowpack throughout much of the West is a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 10, snow water equivalent (SWE) is less than 40 percent of normal from the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest southward through the Great Basin and Four Corners region. 14-day temperatures, valid from February 25 to March 10, have averaged 5 to degrees F above normal. This warmer-than-normal end to February and start to March has led to an early onset of snowmelt for parts of the West. Although California remains drought-free, SWE is 53 percent of normal statewide according to the California Department of Water Resources. Overall, only minor changes were made this past week to the West Region. Based on increasing 60-day precipitation deficits and to reflect the low snowpack, abnormal dryness (D0) was added to parts of northern California. Drought expanded into southeastern Utah while intensifying to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought across northeastern and western portions of the state. Moderate (D1) drought was expanded across north-central to northeastern Washington along with central Oregon due to 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits and low snowpack. 

Caribbean

Only a small area of abnormal dryness remains designated for southern Puerto Rico with most areas receiving above-normal precipitation during the past 30 to 120 days. 

Precipitation was low for the U.S. Virgin Islands over the past week but was above normal in February, typically a dry time of year. St. Thomas and St. John both received 0.26 inches, according to citizen weather observers. St. Croix got 0.19 to 0.28 inches.

The Standardized Precipitation Index showed slightly dry conditions at the one-month time scale for St. John’s East End, with wetter conditions at longer time scales. Conditions were fairly normal for all time scales for St. Croix’s East Hill.

The Vegetation Health Index indicates some mild stress for St. Croix. Water levels in wells on all three islands are dropping as this is a dry time of year. All islands continue to be drought-free.

Pacific

Abnormal dryness continues for portions of Alaska and generally reflects below-normal snowfall. No changes were made this past week. 

No changes were made this past week and as of March 10th, there are varying levels of drought intensity across the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai. 

The Republic of Palau received 2.28 and 3.68 inches of precipitation at Palau IAP and Koror, respectively. Water supplies should be sufficient as these locations need 2 inches of rainfall per week to meet minimum water needs.

The Mariana Islands received more than 2 inches for the week. Guam reported 3.46 inches, Rota got 3.51 inches, and Saipan International Airport collected 2.05 inches. One inch is the weekly amount these islands need to meet minimum water needs.

The Federated States of Micronesia mostly received more than 2 inches for the week. Lukunor was put back in normal condition from D0 after receiving 2.28 inches of precipitation. Woleai and Yap were also returned to normal conditions after receiving 6.13 and 2.11 inches of rain, respectively. All other locations in the FSM received more than 2 inches, apart from Kapingamarangi and Nukuoro, which got less than an inch, but both locations had adequate precipitation in prior weeks.

Precipitation over the Marshall Islands was mixed. Utirik and Wotje remain in D2 and reported just 0.12 and 0.1 inches, respectively. Kwajalein collected 2.32 inches and was moved from D0 back to normal condition. Ailinglaplap, Jaluit, and Mili received more than 2 inches of rain, while Majuro got 1.48 inches.

American Samoa received enough rainfall to leave D0 and return to normal conditions. Pago Pago received 2.68 inches of rain, while Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge got 2.5 inches and 2.19 inches, respectively. These islands require 2 inches of rain per week to meet minimum water needs.

Looking Ahead

In the wake of a cold front, sharply colder temperatures are forecast to overspread the eastern U.S. on March 12. A second and even stronger cold front is expected to progress east from the Great Plains to the East Coast by March 16. Following this strong March cold front, subfreezing temperatures are forecast to extend as far south as Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. According to the Weather Prediction Center, 5-day precipitation amounts from March 12-16 are forecast to exceed 1 inch, liquid equivalent, across the Great Lakes and New England. Much needed rainfall is also anticipated for drought-stricken Florida. Elsewhere, drier weather is forecast for the Ohio Valley, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Plains. During mid-March, dry weather will be accompanied by an increasing chance of record heat across California, the Great Basin, and Southwest. A powerful Kona low will bring heavy to excessive rainfall to Hawaii through at least March 14. 

The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid March 17-21) leans toward below-normal temperatures for the East, while above-normal temperatures are likely from the West Coast to the Great Plains. Above-normal temperature probabilities exceed 90 percent across most of California, the Great Basin, and Southwest. In contrast to the warmer–than-normal temperatures over the West, Alaska is likely to be colder-than-normal. A majority of the lower 48 states are favored to have below-normal precipitation from March 17-21 with the largest below-normal precipitation probabilities (greater than 50 percent) forecast across the Central to Southern Great Plains, Southwest, and much of California. The wet pattern is forecast to persist for Hawaii with enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (3/10)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (3/9)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 64 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1444901 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (3/5)

Since the beginning of December 2025, drought expanded and intensified across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Great Plains which is typical during a La Nina winter. Much needed precipitation at the end of February led to small improvements across parts of the Southeast and also at least briefly stabilized the drought status for this region. Widespread severe to extreme drought is designated for much of the Carolinas, Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and Florida. A longer-term drought continues to affect the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Northeast. The unusually dry winter persisted across the Midwest through the end of February with additional degradations made this past week. These worsening drought conditions extend west to the Central Great Plains along with the Central to Northern Rockies. Below-normal snowpack remains a major concern for the West heading into the spring. Drought coverage decreased in Hawaii during the past few weeks, while Alaska and Puerto Rico remained drought-free.

Northeast

Since the Nor’easter on February 22 and 23, little to no precipitation has occurred throughout the Northeast. A consensus of meteorological and hydrological drought metrics at various time scales supports the current Dx depiction. Therefore, drought coverage and intensity remained steady this past week. 12 and 24-month precipitation deficits are more than 8 and 16 inches, respectively, across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought continues for parts of New England, northern New Jersey, and eastern to southern Pennsylvania. 28-day average streamflows remain low (below the 10th percentile) for much of the Northern Mid-Atlantic.

Southeast

Heavy rainfall (1 to 3 inches, locally more) resulted in 1-category improvements to parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas. Despite the locally heavy rainfall, only modest improvements were warranted for the Southeast as 90-day precipitation deficits exceed 6 inches across much of Alabama, Georgia, and the Upstate of South Carolina. Extreme drought (D3) was expanded across south Georgia with severe drought (D2) extending north through most of North Carolina and into south-central Virginia. Consistent with a La Nina winter, drought has worsened the past few months with more than two-thirds of the Sunshine State designated with extreme (D3) drought. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, a wildfire at Florida’s Big Cypress National Preserve has grown to over 35,000 acres burned at the beginning of March.

South

Heavy rainfall (1 to 3 inches, locally more) resulted in a small 1-category improvement to parts of northeastern Tennessee. For the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Great Plains, drought continued to expand and intensify through the end of February and beginning of March. The major change this past week was a widespread 1-category degradation to Mississippi and also north-central Oklahoma. Since the beginning of December, precipitation has averaged less than 50 percent of normal across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Great Plains. Impact reports from north-central Oklahoma include poor wheat conditions and surface water supply shortages. An expansion of moderate drought (D1) was also warranted for northeastern New Mexico. In addition to the drier-than-normal winter, 90-day temperatures have averaged 2 to 6 degrees F above normal. The lack of winter precipitation combined with periods of unseasonably warm temperatures and enhanced winds led to an increasing coverage of severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought from the Mississippi River west through Oklahoma and Texas.

Midwest

Drought continued to expand and intensify across the Ohio Valley through the beginning of March, with 90-day precipitation averaging less than half of normal across western Kentucky, southeastern Missouri, and much of Indiana and Illinois. Paducah, Kentucky and Carbondale, Illinois had their driest meteorological winter (December 1, 2025 to February 28, 2026) on record. Drought initially over the Central Great Plains has recently overspread northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota. Despite widespread precipitation amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches across central to southern Missouri from February 24 to March 2, little to no change was warranted for those areas.

High Plains

Although late winter is a relatively dry time of year across the Central Great Plains, periods of unseasonably warm temperatures and enhanced winds this past month led to intensifying drought across northeastern Colorado and Nebraska. 30-day temperatures averaged 6 to 10 degrees F above normal throughout the Great Plains. A 1-category degradation was made this past week to parts of Kansas and South Dakota. Widespread drought of varying intensity remains designated for much of Colorado and Wyoming. As of March 3, snow water equivalent is less than 70 percent of normal across the Central Rockies.

West

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October 1, 2025 to March 2, 2026) averaged below-normal for the Great Basin which led to a slight increase in moderate (D1) coverage across northeastern Nevada this past week. Following a drier- and warmer-than-normal February, a 1-category degradation was also made to parts of Montana. A 1-category degradation was also warranted for parts of Idaho, reflecting the below-normal precipitation and low snowpack this past winter. Even for areas of the West that have received above-normal precipitation since the beginning of October 1 such as the Northern Intermountain West and Northern Cascades of Washington, snow water equivalent (SWE) is running below normal. The low snowpack throughout much of the West is a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 3, SWE is less than 50 percent of normal from the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest southward through the Great Basin and Four Corners region. Although California remains drought-free, SWE is 59 percent of normal statewide according to the California Department of Water Resources.

Caribbean

Only a small area of abnormal dryness remains designated for southern Puerto Rico with most areas receiving above-normal precipitation during the past 30 to 120 days.

The U.S. Virgin Islands received meager precipitation over the past week but saw above normal rainfall for February, which is typically a dry time of year. St. Thomas and St. John received less than a third of an inch over the past week, according to citizen weather observers. St. Croix got from 0.11 inches to 0.59 inches.

The Vegetation Health Index indicates some mild stress for St. Croix. Water levels in wells on all three islands are dropping. All islands continue to be drought-free.

Pacific

Due to heavy snowfall during late February, abnormal dryness (D0) was discontinued across the Seward Peninsula. Also, D0 was reduced to the west of Anchorage. Based on below-normal snowfall, D0 was expanded to include more of the Prince William Sound area.

Recent heavy rainfall supported removal of abnormal dryness (D0) in Oahu. Based in part on 28-day average streamflows, a 1-category improvement was made to windward areas of Molokai and Maui. Additional improvements may be needed next week after further analysis of the heavy rainfall during late February.

The Republic of Palau received 1.87 and 1.94 inches of precipitation at Palau IAP and Koror, respectively. Water supplies should be sufficient as these locations need 2 inches of rainfall per week to meet minimum water needs.

The Mariana Islands all received 1.63 inches to 5 or more inches for the week. One inch is the weekly amount these islands need to meet minimum water needs. Guam reported 5.42 inches, Rota got 2.69 inches, and Tinian collected 2.31 inches.

The Federated States of Micronesia were mixed for the week. Lukunor and Yap remain at D0 and received less than 2 inches of rain. Precipitation has been low for Woleai in recent weeks, so the site entered D0. Kapingamarangi and Kosrae received less than 2 inches but reported ample rainfall in previous weeks and should have sufficient water supplies. Chuuk, Nukuoro, and Pohnpei all received more than 2 inches.

Some of the Marshall Islands reported plenty of precipitation, while other islands were lacking. Utirik and Wotje are in D2 and collected just 0.55 and 0.37 inches, respectively. Rainfall has been scarce for Kwajalein in recent weeks, so it was set to D0 this week after getting just 1.22 inches of rain. Ailinglaplap, Jaluit, Majuro, and Mili received between nearly 3 inches to more than 6 inches of rain. On Feb. 28, Majuro’s reservoirs held 37.8 million gallons of water.

American Samoa remained at D0 as rainfall has been below normal. Pago Pago and other locations each received 1.03 inches or less of rain. These islands require 2 inches of rain per week to meet minimum water needs.

Looking Ahead

A major pattern change is underway which will promote multiple low pressure systems tracking across the Great Plains and Midwest during early to mid-March. The Weather Prediction Center (valid March 5-9) depicts a swath of heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) from eastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma northeast through the Lower to Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This heavier precipitation is forecast to extend into parts of the Northeast, but little to no precipitation is expected from Virginia south to Florida. Much-needed snowfall is expected across the Northern to Central Rockies, while dry weather prevails across California and the Southwest. Much above-normal temperatures are forecast across the southeastern and central U.S. where daily record highs may be broken from March 5 to 9.

The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid March 10-14) calls for an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the East, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Great Plains, Southwest, and California. Below-normal temperatures are more likely from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Great Plains. Below-normal temperatures are strongly favored for Alaska. The 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal precipitation from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Above-normal precipitation probabilities decrease west across the Great Plains. Above-normal precipitation is also favored for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Near to below-normal precipitation is favored across Alaska, while large above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast throughout Hawaii.

Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report is for the week ending March 1, 2026. By week’s end, 61 percent of Arizona barley had emerged, of which 15 percent had headed, up 2 and 15 percentage points, respectively, from the previous year’s levels. Arizona barley was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 9 percent of the crop rated fair. Similarly, 66 percent of Arizona’s Durum wheat had emerged, of which 13 percent had headed, up 5 and 13 percentage points, respectively, from the previous year’s levels. Arizona’s Durum wheat was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 1 percent of the crop rated fair. Alfalfa hay harvest continued to take place on approximately 55 percent of the crop’s acreage throughout the State. Arizona’s alfalfa crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 4 percent of the crop rated fair. Pasture and range conditions throughout the State deteriorated when compared to that of the previous report. Thirty-six percent of the State’s pasture and rangeland was rated very poor, 41 percent was rated poor, 15 percent was rated fair, and 8 percent was rated good. Reports from eastern counties have reiterated that grazing conditions continue to deteriorate as a result of prolonged drought. However, annual spring forages have emerged in areas of lower elevation which has provided some relief to livestock producers. Topsoil moisture levels continue to fall as much of the State has been affected by drought. Fifteen percent of the State is rated very short, 14 percent is rated short, and 71 percent is rated adequate. Subsoil moisture levels followed a similar trend. Over the past week, measurable precipitation was lacking across much of the State. However, throughout the month of February, Arizona experienced widespread precipitation across central areas. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), western areas of the San Francisco Plateau received the most precipitation, accumulating approximately 3.50 inches while other areas of the State received anywhere from trace amounts to 2.50 inches of total precipitation. The seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation outlooks for March, April, and May were issued by the National Weather Service on February 19, 2026. The seasonal mean temperature outlook continues to show that temperatures will likely be above normal for the entirety of the State, with southeastern regions having a higher probability of experiencing warmer temperatures than the remainder of the State. Similarly, the seasonal total precipitation outlook continues to show that precipitation will likely be below normal for the entirety of the State, with the eastern quarter of Arizona having a higher probability of experiencing below average precipitation than the remaining three-quarters of the State. Arizona’s seasonal drought outlook was updated on February 28, 2026. The outlook now shows that conditions are expected to persist throughout all areas of the State that were affected by moderate drought (D1) or higher on February 24. Excluding far western regions, drought development is expected across all remaining areas of the State. Current streamflow conditions were rated from much below to above normal. Streamflow conditions are suffering the most in the Upper San Pedro, Upper Santa Cruz, Upper Salt, and Lower Gila River Basins. As of February 24, 2026, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed no change in conditions when compared to that of the report dated January 27. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) bounded 34 percent of the State, moderate drought (D1) encompassed 28 percent, and severe drought (D2) enveloped 6 percent of the State’s total land area. Arizona remained free of extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought. Over the past week, temperatures were above normal according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). Daytime highs throughout Arizona ranged from 9 to 15 degrees above normal and ranged from the upper 50’s in north-central Coconino County to the mid 90’s across southwestern regions of the State. Overnight lows ranged from 3 degrees below to 15 degrees above normal and ranged from 25 to 45 degrees across northern and eastern counties, whereas counties within the Sonoran Desert experienced lows of 50 to 65 degrees Fahrenheit. 

CALIFORNIA: Days suitable for fieldwork 6.4. Topsoil moisture 90% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 5% short, 90% adequate and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% fair, 50% good, and 45% excellent. Winter wheat condition 5% fair, 25% good, and 70% excellent. As of March 2, snowpack content ranged from 9.8 in the Northern Sierra, 15.6 in the Central Sierra, and 18.8 in the Southern Sierra. After a relatively dry January, rain was abundant during February and provided much needed moisture. Winter grains grew in vibrant green hues and alfalfa fields continued to grow well. Wheat, oats, barley, and triticale were well established for the season. Wet field conditions limited mechanical field work towards the end of February. However, sunny afternoons toward the end of the month allowed growers to complete essential field preparations for spring crops. Winter vegetables grew quickly during the month, and some were harvested. There was some lack of availability of broccoli due to planting gaps from excessive rain during late November and early December. Carrot harvest neared completion in Kern County by months end, while harvest began in the Imperial Valley. The garlic crop was progressing well with good quality. In Tulare County, onions, kale, cauliflower and cabbage were harvested and available at farmers’ markets. Almond orchards bloomed during the month as brush was cleared and fallen trees were removed. Bee colonies were placed in almond orchards for pollination. Growers applied full bloom spray. Pistachio and walnut orchards were pruned and cleaned. Growers sprayed their orchards with fungicides, insecticides, and herbicides. Many sprayings were applied aerially due to the wet conditions. Stone fruit was in various stages of bloom throughout the month and leaves were emerging. Bee colonies were placed amid the blooming trees. Grape vineyards were pruned, and their vines were tied. Persimmon harvest was ongoing. Asian pear trees were blooming. Rain during the third week of February hampered berry harvest and was expected to improve by the end of the month. Olive orchards were pruned and cleaned. Navel orange, grapefruit, pummelo, tangelo, mandarin, and lemon harvests were ongoing, however there was some delay by heavy rainfall during the month. Rangeland remained green and lush with rising temperatures during the daytime and additional rain. Both irrigated and non-irrigated pastures were in good condition. Sheep were grazing on various alfalfa fields throughout the month. 

IDAHO: The average February temperatures were above normal across the State. High-elevation snow was good, but low- to mid-elevation snow and precipitation were lacking. The combination of warmer temperatures and limited moisture led to earlier than usual spring field preparations and caused soil moisture to fall below normal levels. Winter cereals and alfalfa began breaking dormancy ahead of schedule, and winter annual weeds grew rapidly. The mild winter reduced stress on new calves. Warmer weather also reduced the use of hay stocks, and supplies looked good heading into the calving and lambing season. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of February 2026. Topsoil moisture 12% very short, 60% short, 28% adequate. Subsoil moisture 11% very short, 68% short, 20% adequate, 1% surplus. Winter wheat condition 82% fair, 18% good. Winter wheat – wind damage was 3% none, 74% light, 14% moderate, 9% severe. Winter wheat – freeze damage 59% none, 26% light, 14% moderate, 1% severe. Winter wheat – protectiveness of snow cover 88% very poor, 9% poor, 3% fair. Pasture and range condition 35% very poor, 27% poor, 30% fair, 8% good. Livestock grazing accessibility 83% open, 11% difficult, 6% closed. Cows calved 10%. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 88%. Ewes lambed 9%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 89%. February precipitation was average to well below average across much of the State, while average temperatures ran from 3 degrees to more than 15 degrees above average. Survey comments supported the noted weather information. Producer concerns centered around the lack of spring runoff relative to filling natural water sources for livestock and irrigation. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for February 24, roughly 10 percent of the State was drought free, compared with nearly 41 percent February 25, 2025. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at nearly 34 percent, moderate drought (D1) at just over 38 percent, severe drought (D2) at 14 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at just over 4 percent. 

NEVADA: Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 5% short, 80% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture 5% very short, 15% short, 75% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 5% very poor, 0% poor, 70% fair, 15% good, and 10% excellent. While Nevada saw some precipitation in February, it was not enough to improve the drought conditions from the previous month. As of February 24, 34% of the State was not in a drought, 45% of the State was abnormally dry, while 19% was in Moderate Drought and 2% was in Severe Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Alfalfa was still dormant. Annual weeds started to germinate. 

OREGON: In Polk County, February was dry until the final week. Three days of rain had led to ponding in crop fields. Spraying for weeds had begun. Hazelnut trees had produced many catkins, and pollination had occurred. In other parts of northwest Oregon, agronomic and horticultural crops had been good. It had been too wet to do any soil tilling, but there had been windows for crop protection applications. Benton and Lincoln counties experienced hail, snow, and flooding amid early spring growth. The significant rainfall and high tides caused localized flooding in pastureland. There had been an active growth of cool-season pasture grasses. While the snowpack in the Blue Mountains was well below normal, rainfall quantity and timing in lower elevations were beneficial for the wheat crop; however, stripe rust was evident on susceptible wheat varieties. Producers had begun preparing the ground for spring crops. In Malheur County, concerns over low snowpack and a lack of precipitation were growing ahead of the crop season. Lake County had received significant rainfall, helping increase storage levels in the reservoirs. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of February 2026. Topsoil moisture 8% very short, 36% short, 54% adequate, 2% surplus. Subsoil moisture 13% very short, 34% short, 53% adequate. Pasture and range condition 63% fair, 33% good, 4% excellent. Winter wheat condition 4% fair, 92% good, 4% excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 9% very short, 22% short, 65% adequate, 4% surplus. Stock water supplies 10% short, 82% adequate, 8% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 18% fair, 40% good, 42% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 21% fair, 69% good, 10% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 90%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 91%. Cows calved 11%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 8%. Ewes lambed-range flock 4%. Mild temperatures along with a few snowstorms occurred throughout the State for the month of February. Snowpack in Utah, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service as of March 2, 2026, was 61 percent measured as percent of median snowfall Beaver, Cache, Grand, and Summit Counties noted conditions were mild and abnormally dry during February with below normal snowpack. Cache, Grand, and Summit Counties receive some rain or snow within the past week. Beaver and Summit Counties reports that livestock producers were dealing with no calving and lambing issues. 

WASHINGTON: In Washington, snowpack remained significantly below normal. Overall, winter has been both warmer and drier than average. All regions received some moisture during the month, in most cases as rainfall. Producers across the State began moving forward with spring work. Winter crops generally looked good. Winter wheat mites were reported in northern Lincoln County, where some growers sprayed for them. Winter wheat was ahead of development, given the time of year. Herbicide spraying will start in the next few weeks as temperatures remain unseasonably warm. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of February 2026. Topsoil moisture 41% very short, 38% short, 21% adequate. Subsoil moisture 55% very short, 29% short, 16% adequate. Winter wheat condition 18% very poor, 33% poor, 48% fair, 1% good. Cows calved 11%. Ewes lambed 15%. Sheep shorn 25%. Livestock condition 1% very poor, 1% poor, 12% fair, 73% good, 13% excellent. Pasture and range condition 20% very poor, 28% poor, 28% fair, 24% good. Hay and roughage supplies 3% very short, 16% short, 71% adequate, 10% surplus. Stock water supplies 20% very short, 21% short, 55% adequate, 4% surplus. February precipitation varied from average to well below average, depending on location, while average temperatures ran 6 degrees to more than 15 degrees above average. Survey comments noted extreme dryness across several counties, while other areas had received mountain snow and lever elevation rainfall. Producer concerns centered around diminished snowpack across most mountain ranges in the State, and the result that will have on irrigation water supplies. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor published for February 24, roughly 6 percent of the State was drought free, compared with about 4 percent drought free on February 25, 2025. Other drought categorizations included abnormally dry (D0) at just over 15 percent, moderate drought (D1) at just over 50 percent, severe drought (D2) at nearly 25 percent, and extreme drought (D3) at just over 3 percent.

Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in January as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index dropped from 136 in December 2025 to 113 in January 2026 (see Figure 1). The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points while the Future Expectations Index dropped 25 points. Among the five indices that make up the AEB Index, the largest decline was in the question asking participants whether U.S. agriculture would have good times or bad times in the next five years. The index for this question fell from 122 to 88, marking its lowest point since September 2024. Respondents also expressed greater concerns about agricultural exports compared to last month. The January barometer survey took place from January 12-16, 2026. As a point of reference, the January WASDE report was released on January 12.

One-half of the producers surveyed reported that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago. Moreover, looking ahead 12 months, 30% expected worse financial performance, compared to 20% who expected better financial performance. At a reading of 47, the Farm Capital Investment Index decreased by 11 points from the previous month, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. Only 4% of the survey respondents indicated that they planned to increase farm machinery purchases in the upcoming year.

Since 2020, each January barometer survey has included questions about farmers’ operating loans for the upcoming year. The percentage of respondents who said they expect to have a larger operating loan this year compared to a year ago rose to 21%, up from 18% last year. In a follow-up question, producers who expect to have a larger operating loan were asked about the reasons for the increase. This year, 31% of producers who expect their loan size to increase said it was because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year, up from 23% in 2025, 17% in 2024, and only 5% in 2023. These results are consistent with respondents’ concerns about their financial performance.

Farmers’ perspective on U.S. agricultural exports was more pessimistic in January. Responding to a broad question about the future of agricultural exports, 16% of the respondents looked for exports to decline over the next five years. In contrast, only 5% of the respondents in December expected exports to decline. When asked to focus more specifically on soybeans, a key agricultural export, 21% of corn and soybean producers in January said they expect soybean exports to decline over the upcoming five years, up from 13% of growers who felt that way in December. Increasing competition from Brazil is weighing on producers’ minds. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned or very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports versus Brazil’s, with 44% indicating they were very concerned.

Respondents remained optimistic about short-term farmland values in January, but optimism regarding long-run land values waned. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index remained unchanged at 117. After reaching a new record high of 166 in December, the long-term index declined to 152 in January. Alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates were cited as the three factors having the most influence on farmland values.

This month’s survey included a question related to the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program announced in late December. Corn and soybean producers were asked about the use of these payments. Over 50% of the respondents indicated that these payments would be used to pay down debt. Another 25% of respondents said that they would use these payments to improve working capital. The remainder noted that these payments would be used for family living (10% of respondents) or to invest in farm machinery (12% of respondents).

As in the last few months, producers were asked if the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track”. The percentage of producers who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment declined sharply in January amid growing concerns about the agricultural economy. The percentage of producers who expected there to be bad financial times in the next twelve months increased from 47% in December 2025 to 59% in January 2026, while the percentage of producers who thought U.S. agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years increased from 24% to 46%.

Respondents were also more concerned about exports in January, with 16% expecting exports to decrease in the next five years. When asked about operating loans in the upcoming year, 21% indicated that they expected their operating loan to increase. Although an increase in input costs was the primary reason for this increase, 31% indicated that the increase was due to unpaid operating debt from prior years. Finally, despite the announcement of the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments in late December, the percentage of producers who thought the U.S. was heading in the right direction dropped from 75% in December 2025 to 62% in January 2026.

Taken together, these results suggest that producer sentiment shifted notably at the turn of the year, with farmers beginning 2026 in a more pessimistic frame of mind.