May Washington D.C. Preview

As the primary season kicks off in several states in May, Democrats’ control of the House and Senate hangs in the balance. In this month’s CEO Report, Pro policy teams lay out the key issues driving the midterms — and what’s at stake with a flip in either chamber.

QUICK FIX — Education-related issues are likely to play an outsized role in campaigns this fall, especially after the success Republicans had in Virginia last year.   — As states struggle with abortion rights and Congress goes back and forth on additional Covid-19 aid, health care policy is at the forefront of this year’s elections.   — With Congress’ failure to pass several pieces of labor legislation, Democrats are sure to face tough questions on their accomplishments for American workers.

AGRICULTURE Agriculture policy and the midterms in focus: Democrats’ influence in rural districts and party control over the upcoming farm bill process are at stake in this fall’s midterms.   A slew of Democrats on the House and Senate Agriculture Committees face tough midterm races, including Sen. Raphael Warnock (Ga.) and DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.). Farm district Democrats are in short supply on Capitol Hill, and further losses would not only cede their representation on the agriculture panels, but also lead to further deterioration of Democrats’ representation in rural areas of the country.   Other vulnerable House Ag Democrats include: Abigail Spanberger (Va.), Jahana Hayes (Conn.), Tom O’Halleran (Ariz.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Josh Harder (Calif.), Kim Schrier (Wash.), Cindy Axne (Iowa) and Sanford Bishop (Ga.). Meanwhile, Reps. Cheri Bustos and Bobby Rush of Illinois and Filemon Vela of Texas are retiring.   If Republicans win a majority in the House, as they’re poised to do, top Republican G.T. Thompson of Pennsylvania would take over the House Agriculture Committee and likely ratchet up scrutiny on the Biden Agriculture Department’s increased spending to combat climate change in the agricultural sector. Republican control of the House, and possibly the Senate, would also give the GOP more control over writing the upcoming farm bill — a massive legislative package that could total $1 trillion in spending. — Meredith Lee

EDUCATION What to watch on education as the midterms near: President Joe Biden is weighing how much federal student loan debt to cancel in the coming weeks, amid growing progressive pressure to help borrowers in an election year. It’s not yet clear how targeted Biden’s loan forgiveness decision will be. But many Democrats are searching for wins as Biden’s more ambitious legislative proposals, such as free community college and child care, remain paralyzed in the Senate.   Education-related issues are likely to play an outsized role in campaigns this fall, especially after the success Republicans had in Virginia last year. Republicans have made it clear they’re planning to seize on parents’ dissatisfaction with lengthy pandemic school closures and talk about social issues, such as how teachers talk about race or racism or the rights of transgender students to play school sports.   A change in the control of Congress would hollow out Biden’s education agenda. GOP-controlled education committees would likely use their power to scrutinize the Biden Education Department over a wide range of issues, such as student loan forgiveness efforts, increased regulation of charter schools and Title IX policies governing sexual misconduct and discrimination against transgender students. — Michael Stratford

EMPLOYMENT AND IMMIGRATION Disunion? Biden has appointed former union employees to the National Labor Relations Board, created a task force to promote unionizing, raised the minimum wage for federal contractors and gave tacit approval for unionizing efforts at companies like Amazon. He’s also pushed for requirements that contractors receiving federal funds employ a unionized workforce, among other things.   But most experts agree that any notable boost to union membership or, for that matter, the federal minimum wage will require Congress to pass actual legislation — which Biden has been unable to make happen given his party's narrow margin of control over the Senate. Both the Paycheck Fairness Act and the Protecting the Right to Organize Act have been left for dead — not to mention Build Back Better, which would have enacted billions for child care, paid leave, NLRB enforcement and other pro-worker policies.   Expect Democrats across the country to face sharp questions about what they've actually been able to deliver for workers — and, on the other side of the coin, the historically high inflation that has canceled out many of the raises workers have received amid a tight labor market. — Eleanor Mueller

HEALTH CARE Pandemic and abortion ruling loom over elections: Three years into the pandemic, Covid-19 continues to influence action in Washington and beyond. Democrats are crafting a message around Covid-19 that is cautiously optimistic, arguing that their approach heeds science. Republicans are likely to continue to focus their positions by criticizing Democrats’ pandemic-related public health measures.   The Biden administration has been projecting a sense of calm around Covid, but it remains uneasy about potential future virus surges. According to the CDC, Covid cases ticked upward throughout spring’s BA.2 wave while hospitalization and death rates held steady, suggesting that vaccinations protect U.S. residents from severe disease. Meanwhile, Republicans are pushing for a return to pre-pandemic public health measures. Many Americans appear to be of a similar mindset, with 27 percent returning to their normal activities and 42 percent partially limiting them.   Democratic leaders have also eased up on pandemic safety messaging and campaigns.   Many states have been gearing up their own pandemic management plans, but might not be able to fund the programs without more federal funds (Washington has yet to agree on additional pandemic spending). And should the pandemic worsen, there will be legislative pressure to greenlight additional relief funds and health care spending. Democrats would likely favor additional Covid-19 spending. However, if the pandemic continues to ease, Republicans will likely focus on issues outside of Covid-19, like the economy and abortion restrictions.   The politics of abortion: With both abortion rights and anti-abortion groups expecting Roe v. Wade to be limited or overturned this summer, advocates have increasingly focused on abortion pills as one of the next fronts in the 50-year battle over the right to terminate a pregnancy.   And the battlelines are drawn. Nonprofits and activist groups are posting online guides to obtaining the FDA-approved pills, holding pro-pill demonstrations, buying ads and driving mobile billboards. Organizations are recruiting volunteers and hiring staff for 24-hour hotlines and some doctors’ associations are launching national campaigns to teach members how to prescribe the pills and urging them not to turn patients over to law enforcement.   Anti-abortion forces also have zeroed in on the pills, successfully lobbying dozens of states to enact bans and creating websites, ads and films to deter people from using them. Just recently, they marked restrictions on the pills passed in Kentucky, Georgia and South Dakota. — Katherine Ellen Foley and Alice Miranda Ollstein

TAX A gift to Democrats…from the GOP: It’s not often that Democrats get to go on the offensive against tax increases. But they’re planning to do just that this campaign season, courtesy of Sen. Rick Scott, the Florida Republican heading the GOP’s effort to take over the Senate.   In February, Scott issued an 11-point manifesto that declared: “All Americans should pay some income tax to have skin in the game, even if a small amount. Currently over half of Americans pay no income tax.” The idea echoed comments made by Mitt Romney (R-Utah) when he was running for president in 2012, which helped sink his campaign.   Other Republican leaders scrambled to distance themselves from the proposal, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell telling reporters, “We will not have, as part of our agenda, a bill that raises taxes on half the American people.”   But the political damage was done.   Democrats have been attacking the plan ever since. The White House put out a “fact sheet” on April 18, the deadline for filing 2021 taxes, contending the plan would mean “around 75 million American families — 96 percent of them making less than $100,000 — would pay an average of $1,480 more in taxes each year.”   The issue also fits nicely into Democrats’ argument that the wealthiest Americans and thriving corporations aren’t paying what they should in taxes. You’ll hear plenty about that, too, especially if they fail to revive plans, currently stalled in the Senate, to boost taxes on the well-off. — Toby Eckert

DEFENSE New faces, big spending: A Republican sweep in November would mean some new faces atop the committees that oversee Pentagon programs and spending.   House Armed Services ranking member Mike Rogers (Ala.) would be a near lock to chair the committee if the House flips, with current Chair Adam Smith (Wash.) likely reverting to being the panel's ranking Democrat.   The top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Jim Inhofe (Okla.), will resign at the end of the year. The panel's second most senior GOP member, Roger Wicker (Miss.), is in line to succeed Inhofe. The committee's Democratic Chair, Jack Reed (R.I.), would almost certainly continue as ranking member.   After criticizing Biden's defense budgets for being too small, Republican majorities in the House and Senate would press for hefty increases in military spending. GOP hawks on Capitol Hill have repeatedly called for 3 to 5 percent annual increases above inflation, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already pushed Pentagon spending higher.   Even in the minority, Republicans have had success pushing for larger defense budgets. More spending would still require Biden’s approval and votes from Democrats, which could mean more domestic spending as well.   A change in leadership also increases the GOP's leverage to knock down policy proposals from Biden that they oppose — such as limiting nuclear weapons programs, expanding the use of alternative fuels in the military and administration efforts to combat extremism and promote diversity in the ranks. — Connor O'Brien

TRADE Midterms will reshape trade politics on Capitol Hill: The midterm elections will bring changes to the lineup of trade lawmakers in Congress.   If Republicans flip control of the House, it will set off an internal GOP competition for Ways and Means Committee leadership: Ranking Member Kevin Brady (Texas) is retiring, and at least three members are vying for his role.   Nebraska Rep. Adrian Smith, one of the lawmakers seeking the role, laid out a traditional pro-trade GOP line in an interview with POLITICO earlier this year.   Smith's rivals include Reps. Vern Buchanan (Fla). and Jason Smith (Mo.), who have both contributed seven-figure sums to the Republican's House campaign committee, seen as a necessity for serious contenders.   Changes are in store on the Democratic side as well. Rep. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), a moderate Democrat who is often a thorn in the side of progressive trade leaders, is set to retire, likely allowing the GOP to win her seat and taking away a centrist influence on the Ways and Means Committee. — Gavin Bade

CANNABIS Democratic inaction on cannabis policy could turn off weed voters: The weed world was giddy when Democrats took over the federal government in 2021, believing that big federal cannabis policy changes were on the horizon. Cannabis companies raised nearly $13 billion in investment capital last year — a 200 percent jump over 2020 — to help bankroll expansion efforts and acquisitions.   But that optimism has proven woefully misguided, with Democrats failing to pass any significant cannabis legislation and the Biden administration showing zero interest in taking executive action to loosen cannabis restrictions.   At the same time, more Republicans are getting on board with cannabis legalization , spurred in part by successful 2020 ballot referendums in deep red states like South Dakota, Mississippi and Montana. That could alter the dynamic for the small coterie of voters who view weed as a topline issue.   A group of legalization advocates recently launched an effort to convince Democratic-aligned voters in states with key 2022 Senate races, including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada, to stay home in November if Biden doesn’t follow through on campaign promises to pardon people with marijuana-related convictions. Biden did issue a batch of pardons and commutations this week that included relief for nine people convicted of marijuana-related offenses. — Paul Demko