October Washington D.C. Preview

We’re just over a month out from Election Day, and Pro policy teams are eyeing the key issues and races at stake as voters head to the polls across the country on Nov. 8. — Abortion has taken the spotlight in campaigns across the country, bringing unusual attention to often overlooked attorneys general races.   — Democrats are feeling the pressure to pass a bipartisan, bicameral funding deal, since the party is likely to lose its slim majority in at least one of the two chambers.   — A major shakeup of the committees that oversee foreign policy and national security is in store, as many committee members are either set to retire or struggling in tight races. AGRICULTURE Farm bill prep and midterms on the mind: Despite some recent legislative victories for Biden and his party, Democrats in rural areas are still facing an uphill battle in the midterm elections.   Democrats on the House and Senate Agriculture Committees, including Sen. Raphael Warnock (Ga.) and DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.), are confronting difficult races. Other vulnerable House Agriculture Democrats include: Abigail Spanberger (Va.), Jahana Hayes (Conn.), Tom O’Halleran (Ariz.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Josh Harder (Calif.), Kim Schrier (Wash.), Cindy Axne (Iowa) and Sanford Bishop (Ga.).   Meanwhile, a handful of notable Agriculture Committee members are leaving Congress this year, just as Capitol Hill is preparing to negotiate and potentially pass a farm bill in 2023. The departures include Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Reps. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and Bobby Rush (D-Ill.). Filemon Vela of Texas stepped down from his seat this year and has already registered as a lobbyist. The list is considerable given the lawmakers’ influence and knowledge of the farm bill, a massive legislative package that appropriates roughly half a trillion in funding for everything from key federal anti-hunger programs to rural communities and the agriculture sector.   Should Republicans win a majority in the House, the shift will give the GOP significantly more sway over writing the bill. Top House Ag Republican G.T. Thompson of Pennsylvania, who would likely take the gavel, has already begun to lay the groundwork for bringing GOP skepticism to the bill’s conservation and climate programs.   A shift in Congress could also make it more difficult to implement the White House’s national strategy on hunger, nutrition and health that was unveiled at a high-level conference. The plan calls for changes to key nutrition programs, which make up most of the farm bill spending — a priority for Democrats. But it’s unclear if lawmakers will incorporate in the farm bill any of Biden’s calls for Congress to broadly increase food assistance and safety net funding, with the goal of ending hunger by 2030. — Marcia Brown HEALTH CARE Abortion on the ballot: The battle over abortion rights is likely to be won or lost in the states, not Washington. That means the races to watch on abortion policy are for attorneys general across multiple states.   The way candidates are running on the issue could hardly be more polarized: Democrats are going all in on abortion. Republicans want to change the topic.   Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Democratic gubernatorial candidates and outside groups have spent nearly $34 million on television ads that mention abortion, according to data compiled by the ad tracking firm AdImpact. Republican gubernatorial candidates, by contrast, have collectively spent around $1.1 million on TV ads mentioning abortion.   Meanwhile, the Democratic Attorneys General Association outraised its GOP counterpart in the second quarter of this year — $6.47 million to $6.3 million. And while Republicans’ fundraising ticked up 7 percent from the previous quarter this year, Democrats’ shot up 70 percent. The Democratic candidates are promising not to enforce anti-abortion laws whenever they have the chance. Republicans say they will follow the law but are also redirecting the conversation to areas of perceived Democratic weakness, including crime.   The end of federal abortion protections is also spotlighting races for judges who could be asked to decide whether their state constitution protects a person’s right to end a pregnancy.   “Everyone wants to talk about the sexy United States Senate race, or the governor’s race. When it comes down to it, the state Supreme Court is going to determine abortion jurisprudence in the state of Ohio,” Mike Gonidakis, president of Ohio Right to Life, told POLITICO earlier this year. “State Supreme Court elections are paramount.”   — What about Congress? Federal legislation is unlikely with President Joe Biden all but certain to veto any anti-abortion measure that comes from a Republican-led Congress, and Democrats unlikely to have the votes to codify Roe. Instead, expect hearings and investigations as committee chairs use their perch to highlight the issue and its downstream effects. — Dan Goldberg BUDGET AND APPROPRIATIONS Appropriators eye December funding deal: The government is funded through Dec. 16 after Congress passed a stopgap spending bill last week that includes more than $12 billion in emergency cash for Ukraine and billions of dollars in disaster aid. Top appropriators are now hoping to strike a broader funding deal in the coming months that actually increases agency budgets for the new fiscal year, which began on Oct. 1.   Senate Appropriations Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and his GOP counterpart, Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, are both retiring at the end of the year, ratcheting up pressure for a bipartisan, bicameral agreement.   Democrats want to negotiate sooner rather than later, while they still hold slim majorities in both chambers. If Republicans regain a majority in the House, some conservatives will demand to start talks in 2023, when the GOP has a little more leverage. Still, other Republicans, like Shelby, want a deal by December, noting inflation’s negative effect on the Pentagon’s budget. — Caitlin Emma DEFENSE National security shakeup looms: The race for control of the House and Senate has tightened, but a major shakeup of committees that oversee defense and foreign policy could be in store.   In the House, Democrats on committees with oversight of defense and foreign policy issues are among some of the most endangered incumbents. That includes House Armed Services members Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Elaine Luria of Virginia and Jared Golden of Maine as well as Reps. Tom Malinowski of New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.   House and Senate Armed Services chairs Adam Smith (Wash.) and Jack Reed (R.I.) are expected to stay on as ranking members if Democrats lose their majorities. But with Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) retiring, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) is poised to take over as Senate Armed Services chair or ranking Republican. House Armed Services ranking Republican Mike Rogers (Ala.) is poised to take over as chair in a GOP majority. — Connor O'Brien FINANCIAL SERVICES Republicans lay groundwork to challenge Gensler’s SEC: Nearly a month out from the midterms, congressional Republicans are accelerating their attacks on Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler’s sweeping agenda. The Wall Street regulator’s push for climate risk disclosures from corporate America has in particular become a source of contention for the business world and GOP lawmakers in the House and Senate. And while there’s little Congress can do to stop the SEC’s work, the blowback against the regulator is bound to continue for the foreseeable future as environmental, social and governance issues keep popping up in stump speeches on the campaign trail.   — Crypto's legislative prospects dim after House clash: House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and ranking Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry (N.C.) stumbled in their long-shot bid to introduce and mark up stablecoin legislation in September. Rank-and-file Democrats and Republicans on the committee balked at how draft bill text would approach a range of issues.   That delay doesn’t bode well for a crypto bill surviving the long road to the House floor once lawmakers return to Washington after the midterms.   Stablecoin regulation had been widely viewed as an area where both parties could reach consensus before they tackled thornier issues affecting the broader regulation of digital assets. Stablecoins — digital tokens whose value is pegged one-to-one with the U.S. dollar — are typically used by crypto traders to buy and sell digital assets like Bitcoin and Ether. The dollar-pegged tokens are also potentially transformative for commercial payment systems — a prospect that federal regulators warn could come with systemic risks if new laws aren’t written to govern their use.   — Republicans, business groups plot CFPB onslaught: House Republicans will set their sights on Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra should they win control of the chamber in November.   Republicans supported the lawsuit business groups filed against the agency in September over an update to its exam guidance meant to crack down on discrimination. Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), the likely next chair of the House Financial Services Committee, included that policy guidance in a list of concerns he outlined to Chopra in a letter in September. He also pointed to a pair of interpretive rules about state powers to enforce consumer laws and two advisory opinions about the Equal Credit Opportunity Act and the Fair Credit Reporting Act. — Declan Harty, Sam Sutton and Katy O'Donnell ENERGY Battle over energy prices fuels midterms: Republicans had expected record-high gasoline prices to help fuel their return to power in Congress, arguing it represented the most visible symbol of Democrats’ inability to tame painful inflation.   But Democrats have benefited in recent weeks from gasoline’s continued price decline, which provided relief from the energy crisis that had weighed down Biden's approval ratings.   Democrats aren't celebrating yet, though, as gas prices could spike again and reemerge as a defining issue the party feared it might be just time for this year's November midterm elections — thanks to the unpredictable war-time machinations of Russian President Vladimir Putin.   Democrats are also hoping they'll be able to tout the $369 billion in spending on climate-related provisions in their signature Inflation Reduction Act, which represents the biggest ever step by Congress to speed the transition to clean energy.   Those clean energy measures, they contend, will help protect the U.S. from volatile fossil fuel prices over time, although its benefits won’t be immediate.   Republicans, meanwhile, are playing offense, arguing Democrats’ spending bill would accelerate the transition to clean energy too quickly, threatening the reliability of the power grid while worsening inflation.   GOP lawmakers have attacked the climate and energy pieces of the Inflation Reduction Act by labeling it as modeled on Democrats’ Green New Deal, despite IRA's inclusion of fossil-friendly provisions Republican legislators typically support.   Some Republican strategists say the party risks overreaching and alienating key voting groups such as young people and suburban voters who want climate action in the face of worsening wildfires, droughts and flooding.   Democrats, meanwhile, are betting their legislation will win over voters across the ideological spectrum for supporting a wide range of energy sources — a something-for-everyone approach designed to mute criticism. — Josh Siegel CANNABIS Republicans remain wary of weed: When Democrats took over full control of the federal government in 2021, there was widespread optimism among cannabis industry officials that big changes to federal policy were on the horizon.   But those hopes have proven misguided, with Congress and the Biden administration failing to take any significant action to loosen federal marijuana restrictions, sinking the sector into a deep financial malaise. Industry officials are still holding out hope that bipartisan legislation that would make it easier for cannabis companies to access banking — perhaps packaged with some criminal justice reforms — could be passed in the lame-duck session.   But the prospect of Republicans winning control of at least one chamber of Congress is hardly seen as a welcome prospect by many cannabis industry officials. While Republicans like Reps. Dave Joyce (Ohio) and Nancy Mace (S.C.) have been vocal advocates for ending federal prohibition, they remain outliers in the GOP ranks. And while voters in deep-red states like Montana and South Dakota have embraced legalization in recent years, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have proven slow to adjust their views to that rapidly shifting reality. — Paul Demko EMPLOYMENT AND IMMIGRATION For Dems, some labor wins — but a lot of labor losses: The midterm elections are the first official referendum on Biden's self-appointed title of union man. Expect lots of banner-waving from Democrats and their union allies on sweeping packages like the infrastructure bill and the language within them — like prevailing wage requirements — that helps ensure those jobs go to union members, as well as the National Labor Relations Board's aggressive progressive agenda under General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo, and the administration's successful attempt at averting a potentially disastrous railroad worker strike.   But the biggest-ticket union item — the PRO Act , which would expand workers' access to collective bargaining — is still stalled in the Senate. Its supporters have been trying to force a floor vote to put lawmakers on the record, but there's no sign from Majority Leader Chuck Schumer that he will let that happen, and even if he does, there's no way it will pass. Democrats have also come up empty on the care policies — paid leave, child care and home care — that were originally included in their reconciliation package and which several unions and others lobbied fiercely for.   Expect those on the left to face tough questions about why they haven't been able to deliver either of these things for voters. Those on the right will likely need to fend off challenges over what their party is doing for families. Indeed, many care advocates have already gone on record that they plan to hold candidates accountable for their support of (or opposition to) investing in paid leave and child care.   Immigration is likely to be another key faultline as GOP governors bus border crossers to blue states and as House Republicans make tougher border policies one of the key pillars of their platform. Specific proposals were far and few between in House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's so-called Commitment to America he released this month — which some say was intentional to allow candidates to differentiate themselves from Democrats yet avoid committing to any single solution. — Eleanor Mueller TRADE Midterms could reshape trade politics: The midterm elections could create a new trade policy dynamic in Washington depending on how well Republicans do and how hard they push the White House to negotiate new free trade agreements.   If Republicans capture the House, there will be a first time chair of the Ways and Means Committee leadership since current ranking member and former Chair Kevin Brady (Texas) is retiring.   At least three members are vying to take over the top Republican slot on the panel: Reps. Adrian Smith (Neb.), Vern Buchanan (Fla.) and Jason Smith (Mo.).   Ways and Means Committee membership could stay largely the same since no member, on either the Republican or Democrat side, appears overwhelmingly likely to lose their bid for reelection.   But two Ways and Means Democrats — Reps. Ron Kind (Wis.) and Stephanie Murphy (Fla.) — are retiring. One Republican member, Tom Rice (S.C.), lost his primary after voting to impeach former President Donald Trump.   On the Senate side, both Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) are expected to easily win their reelection bids. But Crapo would grab the gavel from Wyden if Republicans capture the chamber.   Reelection is less certain for three committee Democrats — Sens. Michael Bennet (Colo.), Maggie Hassan (N.H.) and especially Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.). Three committee Republicans are retiring — Sens. Richard Burr (N.C.), Rob Portman (Ohio) and Pat Toomey (Pa.). Five others — Sens. Chuck Grassley (Iowa), John Thune (S.D.), Tim Scott (S.C.), James Lankford (Okla.) and Todd Young (Ind.) are expected to win their reelection races. — Doug Palmer