USDA Crop Progress Report - First Winter Wheat Condition Rating for 2023 Crop Well Below Last Year

OMAHA (DTN) -- Dry conditions this fall in the winter-wheat-producing Southern Plains already are taking a toll on the newly planted 2023 crop, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday. However, some parts of the region could receive some beneficial rains later this week, according to DTN forecasts.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: 76% of corn was harvested as of Sunday, Oct. 30, up 15 percentage points from the previous week. This year's harvest progress is now 3 percentage points ahead of last year's 73% and 12 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 64%. "Illinois is 71% done harvesting corn, Iowa is 77% harvested and Minnesota is 80% done," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Wisconsin is the slowest, at 37% harvested."

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: 88% of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week. That is now 10 percentage points ahead of last year's 78% and 10 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 78%. "Illinois is 89% done, Iowa is at 94% and Minnesota is 98% harvested," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: 87% of winter wheat was planted as of Sunday, 1 percentage point ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the average pace of 85%.

-- Crop development: 62% of winter wheat was emerged as of Sunday, 4 percentage points behind the five-year average of 66%.

-- Crop condition: In its first condition rating for the 2023 crop, USDA NASS rated U.S. winter wheat 28% in good-to-excellent condition, 17 percentage points below last year's rating of 45% good to excellent. "Kansas is rated at 24% good to excellent with 42% very poor to poor, while Oklahoma is 11% good to excellent with 36% rated very poor to poor," Mantini said.

WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Some dry, winter-wheat-growing areas of the country could see some rain later this week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"This week is going to be a week of two halves for the middle of the country," Baranick said. "Early on, warm and dry conditions are leading to good conditions for the final stages of harvest. But a trough is digging into the Western states early on. A cold front will gradually move into the region between the Rockies and Mississippi River in the middle of the week and produce some scattered showers.

"But it will be a low-pressure center that develops on that front in Texas on Friday or Saturday that will move northeast along the front up to Hudson Bay over the weekend. The storm will be able to tap into some colder air and may turn some of this precipitation into accumulating snow, most likely over the High Plains behind the front toward the end of the week and across the Upper Midwest over the weekend. East of the Mississippi River, after a few isolated showers leave on Monday, conditions will be very good for getting out into the field to finish up harvest.

"The rains in the middle of the country will promote some improvement for soil moisture for hard red winter wheat, but not everywhere. Drought will improve from northern Texas to Minnesota and Wisconsin but will remain for a lot of areas. We may also see some slight improvements to the river levels on the Lower Mississippi River, but it is hard to imagine it producing large improvements. It will just take much more precipitation."