Winter Wheat Condition Rated 28% Good to Excellent in First USDA Crop Progress Report of Season

OMAHA (DTN) -- The severe drought conditions plaguing the Southern Plains were reflected in USDA NASS's first national winter wheat condition rating of the season.

In its first weekly national Crop Progress report of 2023 released on Monday, NASS estimated U.S. winter wheat condition at just 28% good to excellent, below the previous decade-plus low of 30% last year at this time. And with dry, windy conditions expected in the region the rest of this week, the crop appears unlikely to see much relief anytime soon, according to DTN forecasts.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop condition: Nationwide, winter wheat was rated 28% good to excellent, 2 percentage points below last year's rating at this time of 30%. Top winter-wheat producer Kansas' crop was rated just 16% good to excellent with 57% rated very poor to poor, noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. Colorado winter wheat was rated 27% good to excellent and 33% very poor to poor. Oklahoma's and Texas' crops were rated at 26% and 18% good to excellent, and 40% and 47% very poor to poor, respectively, he said.

Hard red winter wheat conditions stand in stark contrast to current soft red wheat conditions in some states, Mantini noted.

"Some individual states show the difference between soft red wheat and hard red winter," Mantini said. "Soft red wheat producers Missouri's, Indiana's and Illinois' crops are rated at 75%, 69% and 56% good to excellent, respectively."

-- Crop development: 6% of winter wheat was headed nationwide as of Sunday. That's 2 percentage points ahead of last year's 4% and 4 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 2%. Texas' winter wheat was 29% headed, ahead of the average of 20%.

CORN

-- Planting progress: 2% nationwide as of Sunday, May 2, equal to both last year and the five-year average. Texas was the furthest ahead with 57% of its intended corn acres planted, just ahead of the state average of 54%.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

The weather forecast for the rest of this week likely won't improve winter wheat conditions and won't be conducive to fieldwork in many areas of the country, though widespread warmer weather looks to be on the way next week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"The weather conditions in the hard red winter wheat areas of the southwestern Plains have been dismal since the crop was planted back in the fall," said Baranick. "Drought has maintained its presence, even though the weather pattern has been extremely active with large systems moving through the country from coast-to-coast.

"Soft red winter wheat areas have ample moisture and should remain in good shape going forward, but these southwestern Plains HRW wheat areas are not looking to catch a break. Instead, in this active pattern, they have been seeing high winds, blowing dust and increasing risks of wildfires. That continues this week with a strong system moving through.

"Heavy snow will pile up in the Northern Plains where 1-2 feet are forecast in a wide area, while severe storms move through the middle of the country. The Gulf Coast will see the cold front to the system stall out and continue periods of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

"The southwestern Plains will be bypassed. Instead, the region will deal with another blast of strong winds, continuing the poor conditions. Elsewhere, it is largely too wet or too cold to do much fieldwork. The snowpack across the Northern Plains has a lot of water that needs to be released before any fieldwork can be done. A warmup next week may do the trick, or at least start the process. But the region will have to deal with some flooding first."