USDA Crop Progress Report - Corn Condition Falls 6 Points During Week Ended June 18

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. corn and soybean conditions fell for a second week in a row during the week ended Sunday, June 18, according to USDA NASS' weekly Crop Progress report released Tuesday. The report, which is normally released on Mondays, was delayed this week due to the Juneteenth holiday.

Already stressed crops could see more pressure for at least part of this week, as a couple of ridges of high pressure in the upper atmosphere are combining to bring widespread heat and dryness from Texas through the Great Lakes, according to DTN forecasts.

CORN

-- Crop progress: 96% of corn had emerged as of Sunday, up 3 percentage points from the previous week and 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: Nationally, corn was rated 55% good to excellent, down 6 percentage points from 61% the previous week and below last year's rating at this time of 70%. "The poor-to-very-poor portion of the crop rose 4 points to 12%," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Corn in Illinois was rated 36% good to excellent, down 12 points from last week. Michigan was also poor, at 32% good to excellent, while Iowa corn condition was rated 59% good to excellent."

SOYBEANS

-- Crop progress: 92% of soybeans were emerged as of Sunday, 11 percentage points ahead of both last year and the five-year average of 81%.

-- Crop condition: Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent as of Sunday. That's 5 percentage points lower than last week's 59% and 14 points below 68% last year at this time. "As with corn, many of the larger drops in ratings came from Eastern states," Mantini said. "Illinois' crop was just 33% good to excellent, while Michigan was just 23% good to excellent with 32% of that crop poor to very poor. Iowa is at 56% good to excellent, and Nebraska's soybeans were rated 50% good to excellent."

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 94% of winter wheat was headed nationwide as of Sunday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and 1 point ahead of the five-year average.

-- Harvest progress: 15% of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, up 7 points from the previous week but 5 points behind the five-year average pace of 20%. Texas was 62% harvested and Kansas was 8% complete, noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

-- Crop condition: Nationwide, winter wheat was rated 38% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and ahead of last year's rating at this time of 30% good to excellent.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Crop progress: 98% of spring wheat was emerged as of Sunday, up 8 percentage points from the previous week and 3 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 95%. Ten percent of spring wheat was headed, even with the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: USDA said 51% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of June 18, down 9 percentage points from last week's 60%, and 8 points below the five-year average of 59%. "Four of the six states followed by USDA showed lower ratings on the week with double-digit declines in the Dakotas," Hultman said. "North Dakota crops are 55% good to excellent, while only 32% of crops in South Dakota are considered good to excellent."

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Hot, dry conditions will continue to stress crops across a large portion of the U.S. for at least part of this week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"We've got a couple of ridges of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that are combining to bring heat and dryness to a lot of areas from Texas through the Great Lakes," Baranick said. "But it's not a completely terrible forecast. There is an upper-level low in the Southeast that will be producing showers and thunderstorms all week long. At times, that may bring a few showers into the southeastern Corn Belt, though nothing of much consequence. Cloud cover will help to limit the heat there, though. And in the Northern Plains, a cold front got stuck in the region and will be active for the entire week. We may see some severe weather, and that could extend down the Plains at times this week as well. But the rainfall in North Dakota is sorely needed for developing crops.

"Between the front in the Northern Plains and the system in the Southeast, it's going to be hot with temperatures regularly in the 90s Fahrenheit and, across Texas, well into the triple digits. But this won't last too terribly long, at least away from Texas.

"The two ridges will split apart by the weekend and set up a channel for storms to track, which so happens to be right across the heart of the Corn Belt. We'll see a system bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week. Models are inconsistent with the coverage and intensity of the precipitation, but that's pretty typical. Models don't handle thunderstorms well, especially for several days in the future. But it does point to a good opportunity to spread meaningful rains to the driest parts of the Corn Belt and bring temperatures down a bit as well. This won't be the only opportunity either. The channel remains open next week, and models are bringing another system through with a similar storm track right now. We'll see if they can keep it up going into July."