OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Tuesday released its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
USDA estimated the national average corn yield at 173.8 bushels per acre (bpa), just half a bushel above the pre-report average estimate. While the yield estimate fell from last month, acreage increased, resulting in a 15.13-billion-bushel (bb) production estimate.
On soybeans, farmers are expected to harvest an average of 50.1 bpa, a 0.8 bpa decline from last month that's right in line with traders' expectations. Production was forecast at 4.15 bb.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat. Hultman sees the world ending stocks estimates from USDA as bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bullish for wheat.
CORN
USDA actually increased corn production for the 2023-24 crop even with a lower yield estimate by bumping up projected planted and harvested acreage.
USDA continued lowering its yield estimates, dropping it to 173.8 bpa, down 1.3 bpa from the August forecast. Production for the 2023-24 corn crop was increased to 15.134 bb, up 23 million bushels (mb) from last month.
USDA raised corn planted and harvested acres by 800,000 to 94.9 million acres and bumped up projected harvested acres to 87.1 million acres.
Ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop were increased 19 mb to 2.221 bb.
USDA also lowered the carryover old-crop ending stocks by 5 mb, essentially increasing new-crop beginning stocks to 1.452 bb.
On the demand side, USDA essentially held pat. The report projects the 2023-24 Food, Seed and Industrial use at 6.715 bb. Ethanol use was held at 5.3 billion bushels. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.340 bb. Exports for the new crop also were held steady at 2.05 bb.
The farmgate price for the 2023-24 crop is projected at $4.90 a bushel, the same as last month.
Globally, beginning stocks for the 2023-24 new crop were increased 1.55 million metric tons (mmt) to 299.47 mmt. Production globally was increased slightly, .79 mmt, to 1,1214.29 mmt. Global exports held pat 196.19 mmt. Global ending stocks for the new crop are forecast at 313.99 mmt, up 2.94 mmt.
Ukraine's production was increased .5 mmt to 28 mmt and Ukraine's exports were held steady at 19.5 mmt.
Looking at global 2022-23 crop, Brazil's production was bumped up 2 mmt to 137 mmt and exports were increased 1 mmt to 57 mmt. Argentina's production was held at 34 mmt and Argentina's exports were increased 1 mmt as well to 23 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA estimated the national average soybean yield at 50.1 bpa, down 0.8 bpa from last month. Planted and harvested area increased to 83.6 million acres and 82.8 ma, respectively.
For the new-crop, 2023-24 marketing year, USDA pegged ending stocks at 220 mb, 25 mb less than last month. Beginning stocks declined 10 mb, reflecting changes to the old-crop balance sheet. Overall production forecasts declined by 59 mb. USDA trimmed its estimate for crush demand by 10 mb and exports by 35 mb, resulting in total use estimates of 4.2 bb. The national average farm-gate price climbed 20 cents to $12.90.
Old-crop ending stocks dropped by 10 mb to 250 mb, reflecting a 10 mb reduction in USDA's export estimate. The national average farm-gate price was unchanged at $14.20.
Globally, ending stocks for 2023-24 were trimmed slightly to 119.25 million metric tons. Brazil and Argentina's production estimates were left unchanged at 163 mmt and 48 mmt, respectively. Brazil is just beginning to plant this crop.
WHEAT
USDA expects farmers to harvest 1.734 bb of wheat in 2023-24, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. USDA will update its wheat production forecasts in its Small Grains Summary, which will be released Sept. 29.
USDA left unchanged U.S. ending wheat stocks 615 mb for 2023-24, as well as the farm gate price at $7.50 per bushel.
Globally, USDA estimates world ending wheat stocks for 2023-24 at 258.61 mmt, a 7 mmt decrease from last month.
As Russia's war on Ukraine continues, Ukrainian access to the Black Sea has effectively been shut down.
USDA estimates Ukraine's exports at 11.0 mmt, a 500,000 mmt increase from last month. USDA estimates Russian exports at 49.0 mmt, a 1 mmt increase from last month.
USDA pegs Ukrainian wheat production at 22.5 mmt, a 1.5 mmt increase from last month, while Russian production is left unchanged at 85.0 mmt.
LIVESTOCK
Tuesday's WASDE report shouldn't gravely affect either of the cattle or beef markets. Beef production for 2023 was decreased by 40 million pounds as lighter marketings are expected in the third quarter. It was mentioned, however, that this projection is coupled with the fact that carcass weights are heavier and that cow slaughter speeds are expected to remain high in both the third and fourth quarters.
Quarterly steers prices are unchanged from last month for both 2023 and 2024. Beef imports for 2023 grew by 35 million pounds from last month as high beef demand remains strong and ample supplies from Oceania continue to come in. Meanwhile, 2023 beef exports fell by 160 million pounds from last month as domestic supplies are tight.
Tuesday's WASDE report had mixed news for the hog and pork markets. Pork production for 2023 was decreased by 105 million pounds as production speeds have been reduced and carcass weights are lighter. Barrow and gilt prices for 2023 saw a correction for the third and fourth quarters from last month's estimates, as now the third quarter is expected to average $69.00 (down $5.00 from last month) and the fourth quarter is expected to average $59.00 (down $4.00 from last month). Prices for 2024 are unchanged from a month ago. Imports for 2023 were increased by 25 million pounds, but 2023 exports were decreased by 125 million pounds as an effect of weaker demand.
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2022-23 | |
| Corn | 15,134 | 14,994 | 15,125 | 14,762 | 15,111 | 13,730 |
| Soybeans | 4,146 | 4,139 | 4,218 | 4,056 | 4,205 | 4,276 |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2023-24 (WASDE) | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2022-23 | |
| Corn | 173.8 | 173.3 | 175.0 | 171.0 | 175.1 | 173.3 |
| Soybeans | 50.1 | 50.0 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 50.9 | 49.5 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 1,451 | 1,459 | 1,532 | 1,347 | 1,457 | |
| Soybeans | 250 | 256 | 270 | 235 | 260 | |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 2,220 | 2,127 | 2,399 | 1,830 | 2,202 | |
| Soybeans | 220 | 213 | 255 | 170 | 245 | |
| Wheat | 615 | 614 | 630 | 586 | 615 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 299.5 | 294.9 | 298.5 | 267.9 | 297.9 | |
| Soybeans | 103.0 | 103.0 | 103.5 | 102.0 | 103.1 | |
| Wheat | 267.1 | 268.3 | 269.5 | 267.9 | 268.3 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 314.0 | 310.3 | 313.8 | 305.0 | 311.1 | |
| Soybeans | 119.3 | 118.5 | 120.8 | 116.4 | 119.4 | |
| Wheat | 258.6 | 265.0 | 267.9 | 261.0 | 265.6 | |
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