OMAHA (DTN) -- In a report with few major changes, USDA cut Brazil's soybean production 1 million metric tons but held pat on Brazil's corn production despite expectations for lower numbers.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Friday by USDA.
Brazil's production was expected to be a focus. USDA cut Brazilian soybean production by 1 million metric tons (mmt) to 155 mmt, which was toward the high end of pre-report expectations. Argentine production was left unchanged at 50 mmt.
For corn, USDA left Brazil's production at 124 mmt and held Brazil's corn exports at 52 mmt.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were roughly neutral for corn and soybeans and slightly bearish for wheat. Meanwhile, world ending stocks estimates from USDA were roughly neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat.
CORN
USDA's only change in domestic numbers for the 2023-24 corn crop was to lower the average farmgate price 5 cents to $4.75 a bushel.
U.S. production for 2023-24 crop was pegged at 15.342 billion bushels (bb), the same as February.
USDA estimated ending stocks at 2.172 billion bushels.
On the demand side, total 2023-24 Food, Seed and Industrial use is pegged at 6.78 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.375 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.455 billion bushels.
Exports for the corn crop are pegged at 2.1 bb.
Globally, beginning stocks for the 2023-24 new crop were raised 1.37 mmt to 301.62 mmt. 2.57-
Production globally was lowered 2.33 mmt to 1,230.24 mmt. Global exports were raised 1.45 mmt to 202.27 mmt,
Global ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop were lowered 2.43 mmt to 319.63 mmt.
Brazil's corn production was estimated at 124 mmt and exports were 52 mmt.
Argentina's production was increased 1 mmt at 56 mmt and export volume was raised 1 mmt to 42 mmt.
Ukraine's production was lowered 1 mmt to 29.5 mmt but exports were increased 1.5 mmt to 24.5 mmt.
SOYBEANS
USDA left the U.S. soybean supply and demand balance sheet unchanged from February.
Beginning stocks, which reflect the 2023-23 ending stocks, were held at 264 million bushels (mb). Overall production, at 4.165 billion bushels, for 2023-24 was unchanged.
Total use was estimated at 4.144 billion bushels, with 2.3 billion bushels serving crush demand and 1.72 billion bushels feeding the export market. The national average farm gate price was left unchanged at $12.65 per bushel.
Globally, ending stocks estimates declined by 1.76 mmt to 114.27 mmt. USDA lowered beginning stocks 1.4 mmt due to historical crush and import revisions to China. It also increased historical crush estimates for China going back to the 2020-21 season. China's soybean imports for 2022-23 was also revised 3 mmt higher to 105 mmt.
USDA trimmed Brazilian soybean production by 1 mmt to 155 mmt, which was toward the high end of pre-report expectations. Argentine production was left unchanged at 50 mmt.
WHEAT
U.S. 2023-24 wheat ending stocks were estimated at 673 million bushels in March, up from 658 mb in April.
USDA estimates wheat exports at 710 mb in March, a cut from 725 mb in February.
The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat was pegged at $7.15 in the March report, down from $7.20 in February.
USDA estimates world ending wheat stocks at 258.83 mmt in March, down from 259.44 mmt in February.
USDA estimates world wheat production at 786.70 million metric tons, an increase from 785.74 million metric tons in February.
USDA bumped up wheat production in Australia to 26.0 mmt, from 25.5 mmt last month.
Russian production was estimated at 91.5 mmt, up from 91.0 mmt last month. USDA left Ukraine production unchanged at 23.4 mmt in February.
Wheat exports from Russia were left unchanged from last month at 51.0 mmt. USDA estimated Ukraine exports slightly higher at 16.0 mmt, up from 15.0 mmt last month. Australian wheat exports were bumped up slightly from 19.5 mmt to 20.0 mmt in March.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report was supportive of both the cattle and beef markets, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. Production for 2024 was increased by 140 million pounds, as even though production in the first quarter was slim, the other three quarters in 2024 are expected to be more aggressive in slaughtering cattle. That bodes well for steer prices, and all four quarters of 2024 saw price increased from last month's WASDE report. For 2024, the first quarter is now expected to average $179, which is $3 more than last month's projection, the second quarter is now forecast to average $183, which is $3 higher than last month's projection, the third quarter is expected to average $182, which is $2 more than last month's projection, and steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $186 which is $2 more than February's prediction. 2024 beef imports were increased by 50 million pounds from February's WASDE report, and 2024 beef exports remained unchanged from a month ago.
Friday's WASDE report was especially supportive to the hog and pork markets. 2024 production was increased by 30 million pounds as chain speeds have been running more aggressive than originally assumed. Hog prices saw some changes from last month's report as faster chain speeds are pushing packers to need more hogs. The first quarter of 2024 didn't see any change in its price forecast as hogs are expected to average $55, but the second quarter is now expected to average $65 which is $3 more than February's projection, the third quarter is now expected to average $67 which is $1 more than last month's forecast, and hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 remained unchanged at $56.00. Pork imports for 2024 fell by 10 million pounds, but exports grew by 50 million pounds.
| WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Mar | Avg | High | Low | Feb | 2022-23 | |
| CORN | ||||||
| Argentina | 56.0 | 55.0 | 57.0 | 54.0 | 55.0 | 35.0 |
| Brazil | 124.0 | 122.4 | 125.0 | 118.0 | 124.0 | 137.0 |
| SOYBEANS | ||||||
| Argentina | 50.0 | 50.2 | 52.0 | 49.5 | 50.0 | 25.0 |
| Brazil | 155.0 | 152.5 | 156.0 | 148.0 | 156.0 | 162.0 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Mar | Avg | High | Low | Feb | 2022-23 | |
| Corn | 2,172 | 2,141 | 2,172 | 2,075 | 2,172 | 1,360 |
| Soybeans | 315 | 319 | 355 | 293 | 315 | 264 |
| Wheat | 672 | 658 | 682 | 648 | 658 | 570 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24 | ||||||
| Mar | Avg | High | Low | Feb | 2022-23 | |
| Corn | 319.6 | 320.7 | 323.2 | 317.0 | 322.1 | 300.3 |
| Soybeans | 114.3 | 114.5 | 117.0 | 111.0 | 116.0 | 101.9 |
| Wheat | 258.8 | 259.1 | 260.2 | 257.0 | 259.4 | 271.2 |
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