USDA Crop Progress - Corn 67% Good to Excellent, Soybeans 68% Good to Excellent as of July 21

OMAHA (DTN) -- The condition of the nation's corn crop fell slightly last week, while soybean conditions held steady, USDA NASS reported in its weekly Crop Progress report on Monday.

NASS also reported that the winter wheat harvest continued ahead of its average pace last week. Spring wheat development, meanwhile, maintained a near-average pace, and the condition of the crop held steady.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn silking was pegged at 61%, 1 percentage point behind last year's 62% but 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 56%. Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 17%, 4 points ahead of last year's 13% and 6 points ahead of the five-year average of 11%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 67% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from 68% the previous week but still well ahead of last year's 57%. Ten percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, up 1 point from 9% from the previous week but still below 13% last year. "States with lower good-to-excellent corn ratings included North Dakota, Tennessee and Nebraska," noted DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans blooming were pegged at 65%, 1 point behind last year's pace of 66% but 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 60%. Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 29%, 2 points behind last year's 31% but 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 24%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 68% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week for the second week in a row and still above last year's rating of 54% good to excellent. "Seventy-six percent of the soybean crop in Illinois was rated good to excellent, and Iowa was at 74%," Hultman said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Harvest moved ahead 5 percentage points to reach 76% complete nationwide as of Sunday. That was 11 points ahead of last year's 65% and 4 points ahead of the five-year average pace of 72%. "Kansas is 99% harvested, while South Dakota is 31% harvested and Montana is at 3%," Hultman said. "In the East, Michigan is 71% harvested."

SPRING WHEAT

-- Crop development: 89% of spring wheat was headed, 3 percentage points behind last year's 92% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 90%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 77% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition nationwide, unchanged from the previous week. That remains well ahead of last year's rating of 49% good to excellent. "Slightly higher ratings in North Dakota, Minnesota and Montana offset much lower ratings in Washington, Idaho and South Dakota," Hultman said.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

A mild and mostly drier forecast is in place for the next several days over much of the Corn Belt, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"There is a front down across the South where we'll see daily scattered showers and thunderstorms from Texas to the Carolinas for much of the week," Baranick said. "And an upper-level low in the Central U.S. will produce some limited showers across the Corn Belt. But a mild and largely drier forecast is in place for the next several days. The heat that has been out in the West and Canadian Prairies for the last couple of weeks will start to shift eastward by the end of the week. Temperatures will be on a gradual increase this weekend into next week. And that should open up the Gulf of Mexico to send some humid weather northward as well. With a front moving into the Plains and Midwest this weekend, that would normally produce a bunch of wet weather, much like we saw in early June. But models are not very insistent on a lot of rain coming with this front. We will see if they change their tune, though. There is a lot of reason to believe that the showers will develop and could be widespread.

"But if they do not, the hotter temperatures will increase stress on plants and use up available moisture. A lot of areas are sitting with adequate amounts for now. But that may quickly turn if the rain doesn't come. It feels to me like a lot of areas are teetering on the edge of good and poor conditions, and a stretch of heat and dryness may topple more of the crop over to the poor side going into early August.

"The Northern Plains, and Montana specifically, have been hotter like the West and have gone without much rainfall lately. The heat spreading through the Dakotas and lack of forecast rainfall could push more of the spring wheat crop into poor condition during their critical period as well, which currently is in really good shape and much better than last year."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Silking	61	41	62	56
Corn Dough	17	8	13	11
Soybeans Blooming	65	51	66	60
Soybeans Setting Pods	29	18	31	24
Winter Wheat Harvested	76	71	65	72
Spring Wheat Headed	89	76	92	90
Cotton Squaring	81	64	74	76
Cotton Setting Bolls	42	27	34	34
Sorghum Headed	34	29	34	33
Sorghum Coloring	19	16	20	18
Oats Headed	95	91	95	95
Oats Harvested	22	16	18	19
Barley Headed	84	76	87	89
Rice Headed	58	44	44	36

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	3	7	23	51	16		3	6	23	52	16		4	9	30	46	11
Soybeans	2	6	24	56	12		2	6	24	56	12		4	10	32	46	8
Spring Wheat	1	4	18	65	12		-	3	20	67	10		4	12	35	45	4
Sorghum	4	7	29	48	12		3	8	32	44	13		3	7	30	45	15
Cotton	7	11	29	42	11		11	12	32	37	8		8	16	30	39	7
Rice	1	3	13	62	21		-	2	18	63	17		1	3	20	57	19
Oat	6	5	23	55	11		6	5	23	56	10		7	9	39	41	4
Barley	-	3	23	68	6		-	3	23	69	5		2	8	38	45	7