USDA Crop Progress - Corn 5% Harvested, Rated 64% Good to Excellent as of Sept. 8

OMAHA (DTN) -- Dry, warm weather across much of the Corn Belt the past couple of weeks has rapidly pushed corn to maturity and resulted in a slightly earlier-than-normal start to the corn harvest nationally, according to USDA NASS' weekly national Crop Progress report released Monday.

Those conditions should continue for most of the Corn Belt for at least the first half of this week, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. However, Tropical Storm Francine, which is forming in the Gulf of Mexico, could throw a wrench in the works later in the week, especially for farmers in the southeastern portion of the country.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 95%, 1 percentage point behind last year's 96% but 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 94%. Corn dented was estimated at 74%, 4 points behind last year's 78%, but 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 73%. Corn mature was pegged at 29%, equal to last year but 5 points ahead of the five-year average of 24%. "North Dakota is only 73% in dough -- 20 points under the average," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini. "Seventy-four percent of the U.S. corn crop is in dent, close to the 73% average, but North Dakota and Minnesota are lagging at 34% and 55% dented, respectively -- well under their averages."

-- Harvest progress: In its first corn harvest report of the season, NASS estimated that 5% of corn has been harvested nationally, slightly ahead of last year's 4% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 3%. Texas' harvest is the furthest along at 75%, well ahead of the state's five-year average pace of 59%. Missouri's harvest is also ahead of normal at 13% complete versus the state's average of 4%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 64% of the crop still in fields was in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 point from 65% the previous week but still above last year's 52%. Twelve percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week but below 18% last year. "Illinois' and Iowa's corn crops are rated 75% and 77% good to excellent, respectively, and Missouri's crop is rated 82% good to excellent," Mantini said.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 97%, the same as last year but 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 96%. Soybeans dropping leaves were pegged at 25%, 2 points behind last year's 27% but 4 points ahead of the five-year average of 21%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 65% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and still above last year's rating of 52% good to excellent. "Illinois' and Iowa's soybeans are rated at 70% and 78% good to excellent, respectively," Mantini noted.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest moved ahead another 15 percentage points last week to reach 85% complete as of Sunday. That brought this year's harvest progress to 2 points higher than both last year and the five-year average of 83%. "North Dakota's spring wheat is 79% harvested, and Minnesota's is 89% harvested," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting moved ahead 4 points last week to reach 6% nationwide as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year's 5% but equal to the five-year average pace. "Washington is the most advanced at 34%, with Colorado second at 17% planted," Mantini noted.

**

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Much of the Corn Belt has been dry over the last couple of weeks, and southern and eastern sections have been considerably dry and have dealt with more heat, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. Dryness and drought have been rapidly increasing at the tail end of the year and are expected to continue for most of the Corn Belt this week, he said.

"We got a nice break from the heat over the weekend, but that's not lasting long, as heat out in the West is going to be spreading eastward through the country as well," Baranick said. "Lots of highs in the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit are going to be 10 to sometimes 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

"And we would be talking about it also being dry. Storm systems are going to try to move into the upper-level ridge that is bringing the heat, but they'll be deflected north into the Canadian Prairies. That would leave much of the country drier with just some isolated streaks occurring in the Plains.

"But Tropical Storm Francine is forming in the Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to become a hurricane before reaching Louisiana late on Wednesday. The track is currently for it to move north to the Bootheel of Missouri before stalling out on Friday evening. Where it goes from there is uncertain, but it is currently forecast to drift through the Tennessee Valley this weekend and through a good portion of next week. Heavy rainfall will occur along the path from Louisiana to the Ohio River, helping to boost water levels on the Mississippi River and reduce some of the drought that has been occurring there recently. But it comes at a bad time for harvest in these areas.

"The whole southeast quadrant of the country could see scattered showers continuing into next week that could be a concern for crop quality on maturing crops of all varieties."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Dough	95	90	96	94
Corn Dented	74	60	78	73
Corn Mature	29	19	29	24
Corn Harvested	5	NA	4	3
Soybeans Setting Pods	97	94	97	96
Soybeans Dropping Leaves	25	13	27	21
Spring Wheat Harvested	85	70	83	83
Winter Wheat Planted	6	2	5	6
Cotton Bolls Opening	45	37	40	40
Cotton Harvested	8	NA	7	6
Sorghum Coloring	75	62	70	72
Sorghum Mature	36	30	34	32
Sorghum Harvested	21	19	20	21
Oats Harvested	94	89	94	94
Barley Harvested	89	75	86	87
Rice Harvested	54	43	42	33

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	4	8	24	48	16		4	8	23	50	15		6	12	30	43	9
Soybeans	3	7	25	52	13		3	7	25	52	13		6	12	30	43	9
Sorghum	7	13	32	40	8		6	13	31	42	8		10	16	30	35	9
Cotton	12	16	32	34	6		12	16	32	34	6		18	23	30	24	5
Rice	1	3	16	64	16		1	3	19	62	15		-	3	26	56	15