The 2024 potato harvest is underway with good yields and high-quality crops, but growers are facing challenges. In Washington’s Columbia Basin and in Oregon, the heat has been manageable, though some fields died off earlier than usual. Production in the Columbia Basin is expected to decrease by 10% from 2023 due to fewer contracted acres and closure of a processing plant facility. In Idaho, the crop condition is mixed, as intense heat caused a smaller-than-average size profile. Idaho’s crop is projected to be the third largest due to increased acreage, but still below 2023’s record. Extreme heat in California has caused quality issues and yield reductions of up to 20%, though yields remain above the five-year average.
The large 2023 crop carry-over, with 66.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage as of June 1—over 10 million cwt more than the previous year—has impacted margins and open market prices. Prices for Russet and Norkotah potatoes have dropped 6%-17% year over year. Looking ahead, contracted acres for the 2025 crop will likely decrease due to the 2024 oversupply, reducing contract prices. With fewer potato acres, growers face limited profitable crop alternatives as most major commodities are near or slightly below breakeven levels.
Profitability
Potatoes (Contracted): Slightly profitable - Neutral 12-month outlook
Potatoes (Uncontracted): Slightly unprofitable - Bullish 12-month outlook
Contracted potatoes benefit from stable pricing agreements. Decreases in input costs should support profitability over the next 12 months.
A smaller 2024 potato crop is expected to help improve open market prices over the next 12 months. As processors gradually work through the remaining potatoes in storage, the reduced supply should alleviate some of the downward pressure on prices.
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