December Ag Prices Received Index Up 5.3 Percent, Prices Paid Up 0.7 Percent

December Prices Received Index Up 5.3 Percent  

The December Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 126.5, increased 5.3 percent from November and 12 percent from December 2023. At 92.7, the Crop Production Index was down 1.8 percent from last month and 8.7 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 172.1, increased 8.3 percent from November and 33 percent from December last year. Producers received higher prices during December for market eggs, corn, broilers, and calves, but lower prices for lettuce, milk, hogs, and broccoli. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In December, there was increased monthly movement for  market eggs, broilers, milk, and oranges, and decreased marketing of corn, grapes, soybeans, and calves.  

December Prices Paid Index Up 0.7 Percent  

The December Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 141.1, is up 0.7 percent from November 2024 and 1.5 percent from December 2023. Higher prices in December for  feeder cattle, feeder pigs, complete feeds, and feed grains more than offset lower prices for concentrates, gasoline,  hay & forages, and diesel.  

This Week's Drought Summary (1/30)

A dry week dominated the weather over much of the country with only portions of southern California and in the South along the Gulf Coast recording significant precipitation for the week. The current week started with a significant, even historical, winter storm event that impacted the coastal areas of the Gulf Coast. Several locations set all-time records for snow amounts with some locations in Louisiana having 9-10 inches of snow for the event. Some locations in the Florida panhandle also recorded 6-9 inches of snow during this event. Colder-than-normal temperatures dominated the country with the coldest readings in the Southeast, where departures were 10-15 degrees below normal, and in the northern Rocky Mountains with similar departures from normal. Portions of the northern Plains were warmer than normal, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal in the Dakotas and into portions of eastern Montana and western Minnesota.

Northeast

The Northeast had cooler-than-normal temperatures this week, with departures of 10-15 degrees below normal over southern areas including Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Dry conditions dominated the region with little to no precipitation over most areas. As the last few months have been on the dry side, drought indicators started to pick up on this, especially hydrological indicators. Abnormally dry conditions expanded in southern New York into northern Pennsylvania and into the central portion of the state. Severe drought expanded over more of eastern Pennsylvania and into New Jersey. Abnormally dry conditions have expanded in West Virginia while moderate drought increased over much of southern and northeast Virginia. Severe drought also expanded to cover all of southern Maryland and northeastern Virginia.

Southeast

A historical winter weather event impacted the area early in the week with snow in many places throughout the region. The greatest precipitation amounts were in southern Georgia, Florida, and into southeast Georgia. The recent wet pattern in Florida allowed improvements in the northern and central portions of the state as well as into the Panhandle to moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions. Dryness was still lingering in southern Florida, where moderate drought was pushed eastward towards the coast this week. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions were improved in southeast Georgia while abnormally dry conditions were expanded slightly in the northern portions of the state. In North Carolina, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions increased in the western part of the state while some moderate drought expanded in the northeast. In Alabama, abnormally dry conditions improved in the south and expanded slightly in the northern part of the state.

South

Most of the region was dry for the week outside of those areas impacted by the winter storm that traversed across the Gulf Coast areas of Texas and into central Louisiana and Mississippi. Temperatures were cooler than normal over the entire region with the greatest departures over southern Louisiana into Mississippi where temperatures were 12-16 degrees below normal. Improvements were made to the abnormally dry conditions in Mississippi and in portions of east Texas. Severe and extreme drought was expanded in southern Texas with regards to the long-term drought signals in place, especially on the hydrologic systems in the region. Dryness continues in Tennessee with degradation in the southern, middle and eastern potions of the state as moderate, severe and extreme drought all expanded this week.

Midwest

It was a dry week for the region, outside of the far northern tier along the Canadian border where some areas had normal to above-normal precipitation. Temperatures were colder than normal throughout the region with departures of 6-9 degrees below normal except northern Iowa and Minnesota where temperatures were near normal to 3 degrees above. Most of the area stayed the same this week with only some expansion of moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions in Missouri. The recent wetter pattern allowed for some improvements over northern Michigan and into the upper peninsula with a reduction of moderate and severe drought along with abnormally dry conditions.

High Plains

Northern areas were warmer than normal with departures of 3-9 degrees above normal in the Dakotas and northeastern Montana. Colder-than-normal temperatures dominated the rest of the region with some areas of Wyoming 12-15 degrees below normal for the week. Areas of western South Dakota, southwest North Dakota, southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming improved this week as conditions over the last few months were reassessed and the indicators were not aligning with the drought depiction. In many instances the drought is still considered severe or worse, but where the intensity was reduced, it was due to not all the indicators converging to what was being shown. In Wyoming, conditions were improved in the central and southwest where severe and moderate drought as well as abnormally dry conditions were improved. Some extreme drought was extended in the Wind River where snow and precipitation numbers supported the change.

West

Temperatures were colder than normal over almost the entire region, with departures of 9-12 degrees below normal in the northern Rocky Mountains and 3-6 degrees below normal most other places. Most of the region was drier than normal this week with only some areas of southern California, western Arizona and eastern Montana recording above-normal precipitation. The dryness allowed for the expansion of moderate drought into the central valley of California where the water year has continued to be drier than normal. In Arizona, the winter continues to be on the dry side and allowed for the expansion of moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions over the western, northern and southern portions of the state. In Nevada, moderate and severe drought were expanded over the eastern part of the state and were also expanded in the southern portions of Utah. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded over western Washington and abnormally dry conditions were filled in over northwest Montana. In Colorado, abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought expanded over the west, south and southwest portions of the state with a new area of severe drought added in the south.

Caribbean

No changes were made in Puerto Rico this week

The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Rainfall amounts this week were generally under an inch (with a few spots on St. Croix receiving over an inch of rain), along with slightly decreasing well levels. However, beyond the last month, conditions are still wet in most locations, and abnormal dryness has not yet developed.

Pacific

In Alaska, the abnormally dry conditions in the west were removed this week due to the recent snowfall in this area. Southeast Alaska continues to dry out and will need to be monitored for any introduction of abnormally dry conditions.

In Hawaii, there were a couple of frontal passages that produced enough rainfall to show improvements over several of the islands. On Kauai and Maui, a one-category improvement was introduced over northeast parts of the island and for all of Oahu. On Molokai, the eastern half of the island also received enough rain to allow a one-category improvement. In Maui, the windward slopes received heavy rainfall allowing for a one-category improvement. On the Big Island, one-category improvements were made over the eastern side of the island while severe drought expanded, and a couple new pockets of extreme drought were added to the western side of the island south of Upolu Point.

Relatively dry weather occurred in American Samoa this week, with rainfall amounts varying from 0.38 inches at Toa Ridges to 0.55 inches at Pago Pago Airport to 1.4 inches at Siufaga Ridge. American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, though 1.83 inches of rain at Koror marked the second consecutive week that the site reported less than 2 inches of weekly rainfall.

Recent dry weather continued this week on Guam, where less than an inch of rainfall was reported at most stations. For this week’s Drought Monitor, conditions have degraded to short-term abnormal dryness. Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Rota, where less than an inch of rain was reported this week. Less than a tenth of an inch of rain was reported on Saipan, and short-term severe drought continued this week.

On Yap, 0.61 inches of rain were reported, and short-term moderate drought continued. No Drought Monitor depictions were made for Ulithi or Fananu as no data were available at either location. On Woleai, 1.56 inches of rain were reported this week, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Chuuk reported 1.91 inches of rain this week, and short-term abnormal dryness continued. Lukunor and Nukuoro remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 8.35 and 4.76 inches of rain fell this week, respectively. On Kapingamarangi, only 0.86 inches of rain fell this week, though the island remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, as water catchments are at good levels there per local reports. Pohnpei remained free of drought or abnormal dryness after receiving 8.94 inches of rain this week. Pingelap reported 1.33 inches of rain this week and remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Kosrae also remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, reporting 5.16 inches of rain this week.

After 0.05 inches of rain fell in Kwajalein this week, short-term moderate drought continued. Short-term abnormal dryness on Ailinglapalap continued this week with 0.96 inches of reported rainfall, though longer-term conditions are still fairly wet given a very wet November and December. Jaluit improved to normal conditions this week after 2.92 inches of rain fell. Utirik has reported that 0.89 inches of rain have fallen during January, and their status has been changed from no data reported to short-term abnormal dryness. Little data was reported for Wotje this week, so no Drought Monitor depiction was made this week there. On Majuro, 2.05 inches of rain were reported, breaking a streak of four consecutive weeks with less than an inch of rain. Short-term abnormal dryness continued there, though conditions have likely improved a bit with this week’s rain. Mili has reported 10.31 inches of rain for the month of January, and their depiction has been changed from no data to normal conditions.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, it is anticipated that some of the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest could see some dryness alleviated with rains from northern California to Washington. Precipitation chances appear to be good over the northern and central Rocky Mountains. The most active rainfall pattern is expected to be from the southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic where some areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas will see 2-3 inches of rain. Dry conditions will continue in the Southwest and northern Plains along with most of the Florida peninsula.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the probability of below-normal temperatures is greatest in the Pacific Northwest and across the northern part of the United States into the High Plains. The best chances of above-normal temperatures will be over the Four-Corners region and along the southern tier of the U.S. into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The greatest chances of above-normal precipitation will be over northern California into the Great Basin and the northern Rocky Mountains as well as over the Midwest. The best chances of seeing below-normal precipitation are over the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast of Florida.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/28)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/27)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 66 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1365229 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (1/23)

Almost all the U.S. experienced a cooler-than-normal week, with only a handful of areas being above normal. The coolest readings were in the Rocky Mountains, where departures were up to 15 degrees below normal, while the warmest areas were in central and northern California, New England, and south Florida, where departures were a few degrees above normal. Precipitation was also greatest in the Rocky Mountains where the upper elevations recorded a good week of snow. Precipitation was widely scattered throughout the Southeast where some portions of north Florida had over 200% of normal precipitation for the week. At the end of the period, a cold air mass settled in over the eastern two-thirds of the country, bringing cold air all the way down into the deep South with winter storms along the Gulf Coast. There are multiple regions that have had several weeks of dryness with minimal precipitation. Even though it is winter, and drought tends to move slower due to reduction of demand, these areas will continue to be monitored for degradation if the pattern continues and the data support it.

Northeast

Precipitation for the week was scattered across the entire region, with some areas of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, and New York picking up over 100% of normal precipitation for the week, mainly as a wintery mix to all snow. Temperatures were cooler than normal with departures of 10-15 degrees below normal in portions of West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Only the northern extents of New England were warmer than normal with departures of 2-5 degrees above normal. Most of the region’s drought status remained unchanged this week. There was a slight expansion of severe drought in portions of southern Maryland and northern Virginia, and some moderate drought expanded over southern Virginia.

Southeast

Cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the region with most locations being 5-10 degrees below normal for the week. The only outlier was most of south Florida with up to 5 degrees above normal. A few areas of rain moved through the region from central Alabama into central South Carolina that helped to dampen up conditions, and along with the cooler-than-normal temperatures, kept most of the region from having changes on the map this week. The biggest rains were over north Florida, where up to 400% of normal precipitation occurred this week. Other areas remained dry. As some areas have been consistently dry for much of the winter, abnormally dry conditions expanded over western North Carolina and moderate drought expanded over central North Carolina, while moderate drought expanded over northern areas of South Carolina. Abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought improved over north Florida, while moderate drought expanded over much of the western areas of Florida. Abnormally dry conditions also improved this week over some areas of central and eastern Alabama.

South

Temperatures were cooler than normal for the region this week with most areas 5-10 degrees below normal. It was mostly a dry week throughout the region with only areas of southern Texas recording above-normal precipitation. Some areas are pushing 60 or more days without any significant precipitation in portions of Oklahoma and Texas, but as it is climatologically the driest time of the year for some of these areas, drought degradation has been slow. Changes this week included an expansion of abnormally dry conditions over extreme northwest Arkansas and central Texas. Moderate drought also expanded over portions of central Texas due to reports of crop losses due to lack of soil moisture in the region. Extreme drought expanded along the Big Bend of Texas where hydrological indicators are supporting the expansion. Some improvements to the severe and extreme drought were made in middle Tennessee, but abnormally dry conditions were expanded in the southwest portion of the state.

Midwest

It was a fairly dry week over much of the region, with the greatest precipitation occurring from southeastern Missouri to southern Illinois. The cold air mass coming out of Canada impacted temperatures throughout the entire region. Temperatures were 8-12 degrees below normal from northern Missouri through much of Illinois and into Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Almost all the rest of the region was at least 4-8 degrees below normal. The drought status remained unchanged for most of the area, with only a slight reduction of the abnormally dry conditions in portions of northern Illinois and Indiana.

High Plains

Some of the coldest air of the year settled into the region over the last week. Departures from normal temperatures were 12-15 degrees below normal in portions of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Colorado, and into Kansas and Nebraska. Dry conditions dominated the region with only portions of southwest Kansas and the Plains of Wyoming and Colorado recording precipitation. December and January are the driest months of the year and deficits are accumulating with little to no precipitation over the last several weeks. Conditions will continue to be monitored for further degradation in the region.

West

It was a dry week for most of the region outside of the accumulated snow in the Rocky Mountains and into northern New Mexico. Temperatures were mainly cooler than normal over the region, with portions of the Rocky Mountains 12-15 degrees below normal for the week. Portions of northern and central California were near normal to slightly above normal for temperatures this week. The abysmal start to the water year continues over much of southern California, southern Nevada and Utah, and into Arizona and New Mexico. Most of the managed water systems are fine in the region after two consecutive wet winters, but the short-term drought indicators for the current water year are highlighting the significant short-term drought in the Southwest into southern California. Degradation to drought status continued this week with drought expanding and intensifying over much of southern California. Abnormally dry conditions expanded over much of western New Mexico and northeastern Arizona, with extreme drought expanding over western Arizona and severe drought expanding over southwest Utah. The recent wet pattern was enough to remove the remaining abnormally dry conditions out of central Oregon while the recent snows in the Rocky Mountains allowed for some drought intensity reductions in northern Colorado and with western and north central Wyoming. Colorado had moderate drought expand in the south, with a new pocket of abnormally dry conditions added in the Southwest.

Caribbean

No changes were made to Puerto Rico.

The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. On St. Croix, it was a relatively dry week, as the highest rainfall amount reported was 0.19 inches, though the relative dryness of the last month is still outweighed by the wetter 3-month and longer period. On St. Thomas, groundwater levels continued to drop this week while reported rainfall amounts varied from 0.29 to 0.41 inches. On St. John, reported rainfall amounts varied from 0.69 to 0.86 inches while groundwater levels continued to drop there as well.

Pacific

No changes were made to Alaska

No changes were made to Hawaii.

American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Reported rainfall totals ranged from 0.67 inches at Toa Ridge to 0.97 inches at Pago Pago to 2.12 inches at Siufaga Ridge.

Just under an inch of rain fell this week at Koror, and Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

Another dry week occurred on Guam, where only 0.14 inches of rain were reported. No impacts from the recent dryness appear to be occurring yet, and no abnormal dryness or drought has developed yet. Only 0.41 inches of rain were reported on Rota, marking the fourth consecutive week with less than 1 inch of rain, and short-term abnormal dryness continued. On Saipan, 0.52 inches of rain were reported. Given mostly drier weather in December and the very dry start to January, short-term severe drought has developed on Saipan.

On Kwajalein, 0.16 inches of rain have been reported this week, with 3 days missing from the record, and short-term moderate drought developed. On Ailinglapalap, short-term abnormal dryness developed after no rain fell this week, marking the fourth consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rainfall. This dryness is strictly short-term, as November and December were extremely wet. On Jaluit, 0.3 inches of rain were reported this week, and short-term abnormal dryness developed. On Wotje, dry weather was reported this week, marking the fifth consecutive week without any reported rainfall, and short-term abnormal dryness continued. Short-term abnormal dryness developed on Majuro, where 0.14 inches of rain were reported, marking the fourth consecutive week with less than 1 inch of rain. No U.S. Drought Monitor depictions were made for Mili or Utirik as data are missing from both locations.

Short-term moderate drought continued this week on Yap, where 0.23 inches of rain were reported (with 4 days missing). Woleai remained free of drought or abnormal dryness given recent wet conditions; only 0.1 inches of rain were reported this week, though with 4 days missing. On Chuuk, 0.88 inches of rain were reported this week, marking the third consecutive week with less than 2 inches of rain, and short-term abnormal dryness was initiated. On Lukunor, 2.34 inches of rain were reported this week and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. On Nukuoro, 0.91 inches of rain were reported this week, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. On Kapingamarangi, 1.37 inches of rain were reported this week, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Pohnpei remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, where 1.13 inches of rain were reported. Pingelap reported 1.2 inches of rain this week, following just 0.05 last week. Given that 5.46 inches of rain fell a couple weeks ago, Pohnpei remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Kosrae reported 2.96 inches of rain this week, with a couple of missing days, and remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, it is anticipated that the greatest precipitation will be over the South into the Southeast from east Texas into western Alabama. Much of the country will see little to no precipitation with the most active precipitation areas from California into Wyoming and Montana, but amounts will generally be less than 1 inch for most locations. Temperatures are anticipated to be warmest over the central Plains to the upper Midwest with departures of 5-10 degrees above normal. The coolest temperatures will be in the west with most areas 5-10 degrees below normal.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the probability of below-normal temperatures is greatest over the Southwest and in New England, while the greatest chances of above normal temperatures are over the High Plains and upper Midwest. Above-normal chances of above-normal precipitation are greatest over the southern United States from New Mexico into the Mid-Atlantic. The best chances of below normal precipitation are over the West and High Plains into the Midwest.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/21)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/20)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 65 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1418033 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (1/16)

On January 9 and 10, a low pressure system tracked along the Gulf Coast and resulted in widespread precipitation (1 to 2.5 inches, liquid equivalent) from eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley east to the Florida Panhandle. On the northern extent of this storm, snow blanketed areas from Oklahoma and Arkansas to north Georgia. This precipitation during the second week of January supported drought improvement. However, drought expanded and intensified for the Florida Peninsula, eastern North Carolina, west-central Texas, and the Southwest. During the first two weeks of January, multiple Arctic surface highs shifted south from Canada and temperatures (January 1-13) averaged 4 to 8 degrees F below normal for much of the Great Plains, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. A very dry start to the wet season continued to affect southern California with worsening drought conditions, periodic Santa Ana winds, and large wildfires. Enhanced trade winds, typical during a La Niña winter, resulted in improving drought for the windward side of the Hawaiian Islands.

Northeast

Following the winter storm that affected the Mid-Atlantic on January 6, mostly dry weather prevailed this past week from the Mid-Atlantic north to New England. Therefore, no changes were made to nearly all of the Northeast region. Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought continues for portions of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

Southeast

A 1-category improvement was made to southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and South Georgia where more than 1.5 inches of rainfall occurred this past week and a favorable response was evident in soil moisture. No changes were made to northern parts of Alabama and Georgia which received 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation, liquid equivalent. The current Dx levels for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast are consistent with multiple indicators. Moderate drought (D1) was expanded south across the north-central Florida Peninsula where 90-day precipitation deficits exceed 5 inches. Increasing 60 to 90-day precipitation deficits supported a 1-category degradation to the Pee Dee region of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Severe drought (D2) was added to eastern North Carolina this week as well, consistent with the NDMC short-term drought blend.

South

More than 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) supported improvements for portions of eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The small areas of severe drought (D2) were discontinued in northeastern Mississippi due to: 28-day average streamflows near the 20th percentile, soil moisture recovery, and a consensus of SPIs in D1 at worst. In addition, there is no support for maintaining D2 in the NDMC short- and long-term blends. Precipitation during the first two weeks of January resulted in a slight reduction in extreme drought (D3) across south-central Tennessee. For central Texas which received generous precipitation for this time of year, low 28-day streamflows (below the 20th percentile in D1 and 10th percentile in D2) precluded a larger area for a 1-category improvement. D2 to D3 drought was expanded across the Edwards Plateau of Texas due to 28-day average streamflows below the 10th and 5th percentile, respectively.

Midwest

Although precipitation was light (less than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) this past week, a 1-category improvement was made to parts of central and northeastern Indiana based on a consensus of indicators. 28-day average streamflows are generally near or above the 20th percentile throughout central to northern Indiana. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the Midwest as early to mid-January is typically a drier time of year. Based on the NOAA’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center on January 14, a large swath of snow (water equivalent near or or than 1 inch) extends from northern Missouri eastward to the Ohio Valley. Much of the Dx areas designated for the Midwest are related to a signal of abnormal dryness (D0) or drought (D1+) at 120 days or 6 months.

High Plains

The Central High Plains continued to have worsening drought conditions and moderate drought (D1) was expanded across portions of southwestern Nebraska using 60-day SPI, soil moisture below the 10th percentile, and the NDMC short-term blend. Although light precipitation (less than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) fell across parts of south-central to southeastern Kansas, this precipitation was too low to justify any improvements. Elsewhere, across the Central to Northern Great Plains, no changes were made as early to mid-January is a dry time of year. D1 was expanded across southwestern Colorado due to low snow water equivalent and 60-day SPI.

West

Severe drought (D2) was expanded to include all of southern California due to the very dry start to the water year to date (WYTD) from October 1, 2024 to January 13, 2025. The D2 coverage coincides with where WYTD precipitation has averaged less than 5 percent of normal. A number of locations, including San Diego, are having their driest start to the water year. The D2 covers Los Angeles and Ventura counties which are being affected by periodic Santa Ana winds drying out vegetation and large wildfires. Following the two wet winters, the large reservoirs throughout California are at or above-normal. Based on 90-day SPI, declining soil moisture, and low snow water equivalent, a 1-category degradation was warranted for parts of Arizona and southwestern Utah. A mix of improvements and degradations were made to Idaho and the depiction is generally consistent with the 2024-2025 WYTD precipitation and snowpack. Eastern Washington and much of Oregon are drought-free, but low snowpack supports moderate drought (D1) along the northern Cascades of Washington. A 1-category improvement was justified for a portion of central Montana, based on 90-day SPEI along with snow water equivalent (SWE) above the 75th percentile. As of January 14, SWE was above-normal (period of record: 1991-2020) across the southern Cascades along with eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. SWE varies for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, those numbers are beginning to decrease after a drier-than-normal start to January. SWE remained well below-normal across the Four Corners Region.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico remained drought-free but abnormal dryness (D0) may be warranted for northwestern areas in subsequent weeks.

It was drier-than-normal again last week across the U.S. Virgin Islands, with several hundredths to a few tenths of an inch reported. Still, significant moisture surpluses persist on the 3- to 12-month time frames across most of the islands, and all locations across St. John, St. Thomas, and St. Croix remain free of any dryness or drought designation this week. Several locations report SPI over +1 on some timeframes between 3 months (since mid-October 2024) and 12 months (since mid-January 2024). The last calendar year was one of the wettest on record in St. John, and totals were considerably above normal across most other areas.

Pacific

A wetter pattern this past week led to a decrease in abnormal dryness (D0) for the Seward Peninsula. However, along the Yukon Delta coast, most if not all precipitation fell as rain. Given the ongoing snow drought, D0 is maintained for that part of Alaska.

Increased rainfall during the second week of January resulted in improvements for the windward sides of Kauai, Maui, Oahu, and the Big Island. Conversely, NDVI data supported slight expansion of the severe drought (D2) for parts of the northwestern and southern tip of the Big Island.

Heavy rain continued across American Samoa. Amounts have been seasonably abundant, and the 11.70” reported this past week is well above what is normal and what is necessary. Already 22.13” has fallen on Pago Pago since the start of the January, which is over the monthly normal (14.52”) with more than half the month to go.

In Palau, rainfall was slightly above normal in December 2024, at 13.52” despite about one-third of daily reports missing. Over 2” fell last week, pushing the January total to 4.13” and keeping any dryness-related impacts at bay.

For November-December 2024, Yap in western Micronesia reported 10.01” of rain (6.24” in November and 3.77” in December, although there are a few missing daily reports). This amounts to 55 percent of normal for the days reported and is well below the 8” per month needed to approximately keep up with environmental and human demand, even assuming some additional rainfall on the missing days. Subnormal rainfall continued into January 2025, with 1.87” reported through the 14th (normal is just over 3 inches), although eastern parts of the state were a bit wetter. The reports from the airport remain considerably below the ideal 8”-per-month rate. As a result, D1 (moderate short-term drought) is maintained this week.

It was a relatively dry week in central Micronesia, but antecedent rains are keeping all locations out of any drought or dryness designation at this time. Last week, 3.18” fell on Nukuoro and 2.06” was observed fell on Woleai. Meanwhile, Kapingamaringi, Lukunor, and Chuuk all recorded 0.5” or less. Looking at this area from northwest to southeast, Woleai has received 7.66” of rain so far this month, and each of the prior 6 months each brought 10” of rain or more of rain, so dryness is not an issue. Chuuk has been drier than normal so far this month (1.85” compared to a normal of 4.11”) but nearly 15” fell during December 2024. Lukunor is closer to experiencing stress due to subnormal precipitation; totals since October 2024 are below normal (28.16” compared to a normal of 35.47”) but so far significant impacts have not been observed. Nukuoro is not currently incurring impactful dryness, with more than 20” falling during December 2024, followed by 10.71” for roughly the first half of January. Finally, despite the dry week at Kapingamaringi, the January total is up to 5.26” which is near normal, and with over 14” observed during December 2024, impactful dryness does not appear likely in the near future there.

Conditions have been highly variable in eastern Micronesia. Kosrae and Pohnpei had a relatively dry week, with 1.10” and 0.75” reported, respectively. But for the first half of January, Kosrae (6.69”) and Pohnpei (4.74”) are within an inch of normal, and with December 2024 dropping 19.49” on Kosrae (just over normal) and 31.74” on Pohnpei (twice normal), impactful dryness is not present and not immediately on the horizon. In contrast, persistently subnormal rainfall was reported at Pingelap throughout 2024. Dozens of daily reports were missing, but for the days with reports, 75.94” were reported, compared to a normal totaling about 96” for the days with reports (full year normal is over 127”). So far in January, however, Pingelap has received a near-normal total of 5.51” which is keeping impactful dryness at bay for the time being, although conditions there will need to be monitored closely for signs of re-development.

Kwajalein and Wotje across the northern tier of the Marshall islands continue with an abnormally dry (D0) designation, but central and southern parts of the country report adequate moisture. Kwajalein reported 0.72” last week, bringing their January total to 1.33” (a bit below the 1.81” normal) following a December with suboptimal rainfall (6.14” which is about 2” below normal). This brings the December through mid-January total to 7.47” (75% of the 9.94” normal). October-November brought near normal rainfall to Kwajalein, but August-September featured 16.23” which is considerably below the normal for that period (21.29”) but just about enough to keep up with environmental and human demand. So the situation is marginal, but the current designation of D0s is maintained this week. Wotje has not reported any rainfall so far this year/month, leaving the D0s designation in place from last week. The month/year has started out drier than normal at Ailinglapalap (1.76” with 3.02” being normal) and Majuro (1.33” with 3.66” normal). The several prior months, however, were wetter than normal at both sites, and amounts were considerably above the 8”-per-month required to approximately keep up with demand (12” to 26” during each of the last 4 months of 2024 at both locations). To the south, Jaluit appears just beyond a D0 categorization, due to the near-normal total of 3.52” so far in January 2025. Rainfall totals were somewhat below normal for the last 6 months of 2024 (about 42” observed, with just under 61” being normal). These amounts, however, have been sufficient for rainfall to almost keep up with demand, and the near-normal amounts the past 2 weeks have kept the area out of D0 conditions for the time being, but the situation needs to be closely monitored for signs of increasing dryness impacts. Daily rainfall reports are not available for Mili since the start of January 2025, but 45.59” fell during October-December 2024, above the normal of 36.55” and well above the amount needed to keep up with demand, which is sufficient to keep D0 conditions at bay regardless the rainfall during the past 2 weeks.

The Mariana Islands reported only light rainfall at best last week, with Guam, Saipan, and Rota reporting 0.22”, 0.21”, and 0.45” respectively. Guam was wetter during the first week of January, but Rota has recorded only 1.03” the past two weeks (38% of normal) while just 0.54” dampened Saipan (one-third of normal). Periods of subnormal rainfall affected both of these locations at times during 2024, and the dryness this past week has continued a short-term drying trend at both sites. As a result, moderate drought (D1) was introduced this week at Saipan, which is a deterioration from the D0s assessed last week. In addition, D0s was introduced in Rota, which had no designation last week.

Looking Ahead

Another Arctic air outbreak is forecast for the central and eastern U.S. during mid-January as surface high pressure shifts south from Canada. By January 20, subzero minimum temperatures are expected as far south as the Central Great Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. During January 16-20, little to no precipitation is forecast from the West Coast to the Mississippi Valley with light to moderate precipitation amounts (0.5 to 1 inch) limited to the Southeast. These amounts, however, have been sufficient for rainfall to almost keep up with demand, and the near-normal amounts the past 2 weeks have kept the area out of D0 conditions for the time being, but the situation needs to be closely monitored for signs of increasing dryness impacts. Daily rainfall reports are not available for Mili since the start of January 2025, but 45.59” fell during October-December 2024, above the normal of 36.55” and well above the amount needed to keep up with demand, which is sufficient to keep D0 conditions at bay regardless the rainfall during the past 2 weeks.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 21-25, 2025) favors below-normal temperatures to persist for much of the contiguous U.S. with the largest below-normal temperature probabilities (exceeding 80 percent) extending from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley south to the Gulf Coast. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for the northern Great Plains, Gulf Coast, and portions of the Southeast. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the West, Central Great Plains, Midwest, and New England.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/14)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/13)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 63 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1486520 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF