This Week's Drought Summary (1/16)

On January 9 and 10, a low pressure system tracked along the Gulf Coast and resulted in widespread precipitation (1 to 2.5 inches, liquid equivalent) from eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley east to the Florida Panhandle. On the northern extent of this storm, snow blanketed areas from Oklahoma and Arkansas to north Georgia. This precipitation during the second week of January supported drought improvement. However, drought expanded and intensified for the Florida Peninsula, eastern North Carolina, west-central Texas, and the Southwest. During the first two weeks of January, multiple Arctic surface highs shifted south from Canada and temperatures (January 1-13) averaged 4 to 8 degrees F below normal for much of the Great Plains, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. A very dry start to the wet season continued to affect southern California with worsening drought conditions, periodic Santa Ana winds, and large wildfires. Enhanced trade winds, typical during a La Niña winter, resulted in improving drought for the windward side of the Hawaiian Islands.

Northeast

Following the winter storm that affected the Mid-Atlantic on January 6, mostly dry weather prevailed this past week from the Mid-Atlantic north to New England. Therefore, no changes were made to nearly all of the Northeast region. Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought continues for portions of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic.

Southeast

A 1-category improvement was made to southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and South Georgia where more than 1.5 inches of rainfall occurred this past week and a favorable response was evident in soil moisture. No changes were made to northern parts of Alabama and Georgia which received 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation, liquid equivalent. The current Dx levels for the Piedmont areas of the Southeast are consistent with multiple indicators. Moderate drought (D1) was expanded south across the north-central Florida Peninsula where 90-day precipitation deficits exceed 5 inches. Increasing 60 to 90-day precipitation deficits supported a 1-category degradation to the Pee Dee region of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Severe drought (D2) was added to eastern North Carolina this week as well, consistent with the NDMC short-term drought blend.

South

More than 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) supported improvements for portions of eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The small areas of severe drought (D2) were discontinued in northeastern Mississippi due to: 28-day average streamflows near the 20th percentile, soil moisture recovery, and a consensus of SPIs in D1 at worst. In addition, there is no support for maintaining D2 in the NDMC short- and long-term blends. Precipitation during the first two weeks of January resulted in a slight reduction in extreme drought (D3) across south-central Tennessee. For central Texas which received generous precipitation for this time of year, low 28-day streamflows (below the 20th percentile in D1 and 10th percentile in D2) precluded a larger area for a 1-category improvement. D2 to D3 drought was expanded across the Edwards Plateau of Texas due to 28-day average streamflows below the 10th and 5th percentile, respectively.

Midwest

Although precipitation was light (less than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) this past week, a 1-category improvement was made to parts of central and northeastern Indiana based on a consensus of indicators. 28-day average streamflows are generally near or above the 20th percentile throughout central to northern Indiana. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the Midwest as early to mid-January is typically a drier time of year. Based on the NOAA’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center on January 14, a large swath of snow (water equivalent near or or than 1 inch) extends from northern Missouri eastward to the Ohio Valley. Much of the Dx areas designated for the Midwest are related to a signal of abnormal dryness (D0) or drought (D1+) at 120 days or 6 months.

High Plains

The Central High Plains continued to have worsening drought conditions and moderate drought (D1) was expanded across portions of southwestern Nebraska using 60-day SPI, soil moisture below the 10th percentile, and the NDMC short-term blend. Although light precipitation (less than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) fell across parts of south-central to southeastern Kansas, this precipitation was too low to justify any improvements. Elsewhere, across the Central to Northern Great Plains, no changes were made as early to mid-January is a dry time of year. D1 was expanded across southwestern Colorado due to low snow water equivalent and 60-day SPI.

West

Severe drought (D2) was expanded to include all of southern California due to the very dry start to the water year to date (WYTD) from October 1, 2024 to January 13, 2025. The D2 coverage coincides with where WYTD precipitation has averaged less than 5 percent of normal. A number of locations, including San Diego, are having their driest start to the water year. The D2 covers Los Angeles and Ventura counties which are being affected by periodic Santa Ana winds drying out vegetation and large wildfires. Following the two wet winters, the large reservoirs throughout California are at or above-normal. Based on 90-day SPI, declining soil moisture, and low snow water equivalent, a 1-category degradation was warranted for parts of Arizona and southwestern Utah. A mix of improvements and degradations were made to Idaho and the depiction is generally consistent with the 2024-2025 WYTD precipitation and snowpack. Eastern Washington and much of Oregon are drought-free, but low snowpack supports moderate drought (D1) along the northern Cascades of Washington. A 1-category improvement was justified for a portion of central Montana, based on 90-day SPEI along with snow water equivalent (SWE) above the 75th percentile. As of January 14, SWE was above-normal (period of record: 1991-2020) across the southern Cascades along with eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. SWE varies for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, those numbers are beginning to decrease after a drier-than-normal start to January. SWE remained well below-normal across the Four Corners Region.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico remained drought-free but abnormal dryness (D0) may be warranted for northwestern areas in subsequent weeks.

It was drier-than-normal again last week across the U.S. Virgin Islands, with several hundredths to a few tenths of an inch reported. Still, significant moisture surpluses persist on the 3- to 12-month time frames across most of the islands, and all locations across St. John, St. Thomas, and St. Croix remain free of any dryness or drought designation this week. Several locations report SPI over +1 on some timeframes between 3 months (since mid-October 2024) and 12 months (since mid-January 2024). The last calendar year was one of the wettest on record in St. John, and totals were considerably above normal across most other areas.

Pacific

A wetter pattern this past week led to a decrease in abnormal dryness (D0) for the Seward Peninsula. However, along the Yukon Delta coast, most if not all precipitation fell as rain. Given the ongoing snow drought, D0 is maintained for that part of Alaska.

Increased rainfall during the second week of January resulted in improvements for the windward sides of Kauai, Maui, Oahu, and the Big Island. Conversely, NDVI data supported slight expansion of the severe drought (D2) for parts of the northwestern and southern tip of the Big Island.

Heavy rain continued across American Samoa. Amounts have been seasonably abundant, and the 11.70” reported this past week is well above what is normal and what is necessary. Already 22.13” has fallen on Pago Pago since the start of the January, which is over the monthly normal (14.52”) with more than half the month to go.

In Palau, rainfall was slightly above normal in December 2024, at 13.52” despite about one-third of daily reports missing. Over 2” fell last week, pushing the January total to 4.13” and keeping any dryness-related impacts at bay.

For November-December 2024, Yap in western Micronesia reported 10.01” of rain (6.24” in November and 3.77” in December, although there are a few missing daily reports). This amounts to 55 percent of normal for the days reported and is well below the 8” per month needed to approximately keep up with environmental and human demand, even assuming some additional rainfall on the missing days. Subnormal rainfall continued into January 2025, with 1.87” reported through the 14th (normal is just over 3 inches), although eastern parts of the state were a bit wetter. The reports from the airport remain considerably below the ideal 8”-per-month rate. As a result, D1 (moderate short-term drought) is maintained this week.

It was a relatively dry week in central Micronesia, but antecedent rains are keeping all locations out of any drought or dryness designation at this time. Last week, 3.18” fell on Nukuoro and 2.06” was observed fell on Woleai. Meanwhile, Kapingamaringi, Lukunor, and Chuuk all recorded 0.5” or less. Looking at this area from northwest to southeast, Woleai has received 7.66” of rain so far this month, and each of the prior 6 months each brought 10” of rain or more of rain, so dryness is not an issue. Chuuk has been drier than normal so far this month (1.85” compared to a normal of 4.11”) but nearly 15” fell during December 2024. Lukunor is closer to experiencing stress due to subnormal precipitation; totals since October 2024 are below normal (28.16” compared to a normal of 35.47”) but so far significant impacts have not been observed. Nukuoro is not currently incurring impactful dryness, with more than 20” falling during December 2024, followed by 10.71” for roughly the first half of January. Finally, despite the dry week at Kapingamaringi, the January total is up to 5.26” which is near normal, and with over 14” observed during December 2024, impactful dryness does not appear likely in the near future there.

Conditions have been highly variable in eastern Micronesia. Kosrae and Pohnpei had a relatively dry week, with 1.10” and 0.75” reported, respectively. But for the first half of January, Kosrae (6.69”) and Pohnpei (4.74”) are within an inch of normal, and with December 2024 dropping 19.49” on Kosrae (just over normal) and 31.74” on Pohnpei (twice normal), impactful dryness is not present and not immediately on the horizon. In contrast, persistently subnormal rainfall was reported at Pingelap throughout 2024. Dozens of daily reports were missing, but for the days with reports, 75.94” were reported, compared to a normal totaling about 96” for the days with reports (full year normal is over 127”). So far in January, however, Pingelap has received a near-normal total of 5.51” which is keeping impactful dryness at bay for the time being, although conditions there will need to be monitored closely for signs of re-development.

Kwajalein and Wotje across the northern tier of the Marshall islands continue with an abnormally dry (D0) designation, but central and southern parts of the country report adequate moisture. Kwajalein reported 0.72” last week, bringing their January total to 1.33” (a bit below the 1.81” normal) following a December with suboptimal rainfall (6.14” which is about 2” below normal). This brings the December through mid-January total to 7.47” (75% of the 9.94” normal). October-November brought near normal rainfall to Kwajalein, but August-September featured 16.23” which is considerably below the normal for that period (21.29”) but just about enough to keep up with environmental and human demand. So the situation is marginal, but the current designation of D0s is maintained this week. Wotje has not reported any rainfall so far this year/month, leaving the D0s designation in place from last week. The month/year has started out drier than normal at Ailinglapalap (1.76” with 3.02” being normal) and Majuro (1.33” with 3.66” normal). The several prior months, however, were wetter than normal at both sites, and amounts were considerably above the 8”-per-month required to approximately keep up with demand (12” to 26” during each of the last 4 months of 2024 at both locations). To the south, Jaluit appears just beyond a D0 categorization, due to the near-normal total of 3.52” so far in January 2025. Rainfall totals were somewhat below normal for the last 6 months of 2024 (about 42” observed, with just under 61” being normal). These amounts, however, have been sufficient for rainfall to almost keep up with demand, and the near-normal amounts the past 2 weeks have kept the area out of D0 conditions for the time being, but the situation needs to be closely monitored for signs of increasing dryness impacts. Daily rainfall reports are not available for Mili since the start of January 2025, but 45.59” fell during October-December 2024, above the normal of 36.55” and well above the amount needed to keep up with demand, which is sufficient to keep D0 conditions at bay regardless the rainfall during the past 2 weeks.

The Mariana Islands reported only light rainfall at best last week, with Guam, Saipan, and Rota reporting 0.22”, 0.21”, and 0.45” respectively. Guam was wetter during the first week of January, but Rota has recorded only 1.03” the past two weeks (38% of normal) while just 0.54” dampened Saipan (one-third of normal). Periods of subnormal rainfall affected both of these locations at times during 2024, and the dryness this past week has continued a short-term drying trend at both sites. As a result, moderate drought (D1) was introduced this week at Saipan, which is a deterioration from the D0s assessed last week. In addition, D0s was introduced in Rota, which had no designation last week.

Looking Ahead

Another Arctic air outbreak is forecast for the central and eastern U.S. during mid-January as surface high pressure shifts south from Canada. By January 20, subzero minimum temperatures are expected as far south as the Central Great Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. During January 16-20, little to no precipitation is forecast from the West Coast to the Mississippi Valley with light to moderate precipitation amounts (0.5 to 1 inch) limited to the Southeast. These amounts, however, have been sufficient for rainfall to almost keep up with demand, and the near-normal amounts the past 2 weeks have kept the area out of D0 conditions for the time being, but the situation needs to be closely monitored for signs of increasing dryness impacts. Daily rainfall reports are not available for Mili since the start of January 2025, but 45.59” fell during October-December 2024, above the normal of 36.55” and well above the amount needed to keep up with demand, which is sufficient to keep D0 conditions at bay regardless the rainfall during the past 2 weeks.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 21-25, 2025) favors below-normal temperatures to persist for much of the contiguous U.S. with the largest below-normal temperature probabilities (exceeding 80 percent) extending from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley south to the Gulf Coast. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for the northern Great Plains, Gulf Coast, and portions of the Southeast. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the West, Central Great Plains, Midwest, and New England.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/14)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/13)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 63 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1486520 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (1/9)

On January 4 and 5, a low pressure system developed across the Central Great Plains and then tracked eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Along its track, widespread precipitation (1 to 2 inches, liquid equivalent) was observed throughout eastern Kansas, Missouri, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. Total snowfall amounts were near or more than a foot in portions of these areas. This winter storm also resulted in freezing rain for the Ohio Valley and parts of Virginia and West Virginia. Drought improvements were generally made to portions of the central and eastern U.S. where precipitation amounts exceeded 1 or 1.5 inches, liquid equivalent. Drought coverage and intensity continued its decline for the Upper Ohio Valley and New England. After the winter storm exited the East Coast, an arctic air outbreak overspread the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 states. A favorable start to the wet season coupled with above-normal snowpack supported a decrease in drought coverage across the Pacific Northwest. Conversely, drought worsened for southern California and the Southwest. Alaska and Puerto Rico remained drought-free, while short-term drought intensified across Hawaii.

Northeast

Recent precipitation and consistent with the NDMC drought blends, abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) were decreased across parts of central and southwestern Pennsylvania. Likewise, precipitation (more than 1 inch, liquid equivalent) resulted in a minor reduction in D0 across eastern West Virginia. Since the beginning of December, drought continued to decrease in spatial coverage and intensity throughout New England due to beneficial precipitation during the past 30 days and associated improvements in streamflow, groundwater, and soil moisture.

Southeast

Precipitation (more than 1 inch) at the beginning of January resulted in a 1-category improvement across parts of northern Alabama, while a minor increase in moderate drought (D1) occurred in eastern and southeastern parts of the state. Based on 90-day SPI along with NASA SPoRT soil moisture, abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) were expanded across eastern and south Georgia. Increasing 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits support an expansion of moderate drought (D1) across eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia. In addition, 28-day streamflows are now below the 20th percentile in much of the designated D1 area. No changes were made this past week to Florida, but nearly all the state is designated with either D0 or D1.

South

Based on 30 to 120-day SPI, 28-day streamflow, and soil moisture, a 1-category degradation was made to portions of the Edwards Plateau of Texas. SPIs at various time scales and soil moisture supported a 1-category degradation as well for parts of the Rio Grande Valley. Heavy rainfall during late December supported additional improvements across southeastern Texas. Recent rainfall (1 to 2 inches) prompted a 1-category improvement to parts of Mississippi and Tennessee. Despite the recent rainfall, 28-day average streamflow and 90-day SPI support a continuation of D1-D3 intensity for the Tennessee Valley. Although precipitation was lighter this past week, the lack of any support among the indicators for D0 and D1 led to improvements to much of Arkansas.

Midwest

More than 1 inch of precipitation (liquid equivalent) supported a 1-category improvement across northwestern Missouri. Recent precipitation (around 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) along with improving SPIs at various time scales and with support from 28-day average streamflow above the 20th percentile, moderate drought (D1) was reduced to abnormal dryness (D0) for portions of Illinois and Indiana. D1 was maintained for the northeast corner of Indiana which is consistent with SPIs dating back to 120 days. Beneficial precipitation and cooler seasonal temperatures led to a decrease in drought coverage and intensity for much of Ohio. Although soil moisture has improved in recent weeks, it remains low especially across southeastern Ohio. 28-day average streamflows are near to above average for most of western to central Ohio.

High Plains

Based on 30 to 60-day SPI along with a lack of early season snowpack, a 1-category degradation was made to southwestern Colorado. Farther to the north across northwestern Colorado, improving snowpack resulted in a minor reduction in abnormal dryness (D0). Southwestern Nebraska has received little to no precipitation during the past 7 weeks, prompting an expansion of D0. In addition, above-normal temperatures during the late fall and into the early winter exacerbated increasing short-term dryness. Heavy precipitation (more than 1 inch, liquid equivalent) for this time of year resulted in a 1-category improvement to northeastern Kansas. No changes were made to the Dakotas and early January is one of the driest times of the year.

West

A dry start to the winter and using 90-day SPI and soil moisture, moderate drought (D1) was expanded across southern California. The NDMC short-term blend, 90-day SPI, and many 28-day average streamflows below the 10th percentile supported the addition of severe drought (D2) to portions of southern California. The Santa Ana winds during early January are likely to exacerbate the worsening drought conditions. Consistent with the NDMC short-term blend along with 30 to 120-day SPI, D2 was expanded for portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Based on water year to date (WYTD: October 1, 2024 to January 6, 2025) precipitation averaging above normal and snow water equivalent (SWE) above the 80th percentile, a 1-category improvement was made to southwestern Idaho, eastern to central Oregon, eastern Washington and a small part of northwestern Montana. This 1-category improvement is also supported by NDMC drought blends and SPIs at various time scales. As of January 7, SWE was above-normal (period of record: 1991-2020) across the southern Cascades along with eastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho. SWE was highly variable for the Sierra Nevada Mountains and below-normal across the Four Corners Region.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico remained drought-free but precipitation deficits are beginning to increase for parts of northwestern Puerto Rico. However, based on vegetation indices, soil moisture, and streamflows, abnormal dryness (D0) is not warranted at this time.

It was a drier-than-normal week for the U.S. Virgin Islands, but due to short-term and long-term antecedent rainfall, no dryness or drought is designated on the Drought Monitor for St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. The latter island reported 0.4” to 0.6” on New Year’s Eve, with an additional 0.05” to 0.2” the rest of the week. Both St. John and St. Thomas recorded several hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. This followed a relatively wet November-December, and on St. John, 2024 was one of the wettest years on record, with lesser but still above-normal amounts observed elsewhere for the year. November-December 2024 brought 14.81” to southern St. John and 14.36” to Charlotte Amalie. St. Croix was a little drier, with most locations reporting 8.8” to 13.7” – slightly less in southwestern sections. Thus antecedent rainfall kept dryness-related impacts at bay this week.

Pacific

Alaska remained drought-free although snow water equivalent values were running below normal for the Kenai Peninsula and near Anchorage.

A poor start to the wet season resulted in a continued drought increase throughout the Hawaiian Islands. On the Big Island, a 1-cat degradation was warranted based on NDVI, precipitation deficits, and streamflow data. Severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought were expanded across Maui. D2 was also expanded eastward along the lower slopes of Molokai. Due to lack of adequate rainfall and NDVI data, D2 coverage was increased across Oahu and Kauai.

American Samoa reported seasonably abundant rainfall recently. Pago Pago recorded 14.22” in December 2024, just barely below normal. The rainfall rate picked up for the first week of January 2025, with 9.01” observed in the last 7 days. No dryness exists in this region, and given the recent rainfall totals, no dryness-related impacts are expected for the foreseeable future.

In Palau, rainfall was slightly above normal in December 2024, at 13.52” despite about one-third of daily reports missing. Over 2” fell last week, precluding any dryness-related impacts at this time.

The only drought (designation D1 or worse) across the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands continues to impact Yap in western Micronesia. For November-December 2024, Yap reported 10.01” of rain (6.24” in November and 3.77” in December, although there are a few missing daily reports). This amounts to 55 percent of normal for the days reported, and is well below the 8” per month needed to approximately keep up with environmental and human demand, even assuming some additional rainfall on the missing days. Subnormal rainfall continued into early January 2025, with just 1.14” reported (normal is approximately 1.6”) for the first week of the year at the observing location Yap International Airport, but eastern parts of the state reported wetter conditions. The report from the airport remains considerably below the ideal 8”-per-month rate. As a result, D1 (moderate drought) is maintained this week.

In central Micronesia, Woleai received 8.79” of rain during December 2024, and precipitation has continued apace in early January 2025, with 2.76” reported. These amounts are near normal, and sufficient to meet demand. Catchments are reported to be full. Therefore, no dryness-related impacts have been observed, and no dryness or drought designation is indicated on the Drought Monitor.

Across east-central and south-central Micronesia, precipitation was abundant in December 2024, easily sufficient to meet demand. Monthly totals were 10.97” at Luchonoch (98 percent of normal), 14.33” at Chuuk (130 percent of normal), 14.69” at Kapingamaringi (168 percent of normal), and 19.24” in Nukuoro (180 percent of normal). Totals for the first week of January were somewhat lower in part of the region, ranging from just under 1.5” at Chuuk to about 2 inches in Lukunoch. Other locations maintained their wetter pattern. Last week, 4.12” fell on Kapingamaringi, and 6.74” soaked Nukuoro. Not surprisingly, no dryness-related impacts are reported across the region, so there is no designation for any of these locations on the Drought Monitor.

Conditions have been highly variable in eastern Micronesia. Kosrae and Pohnpei reported abundant rainfall during December 2024, with 19.49” (just over normal) and 31.74” (twice normal) reported, respectively. In sharp contrast, dryness has impacted Pingelap. Only 7.26” fell during December 2024 (56 percent of normal and slightly less than is needed to keep pace with demand. The prior three months were also considerably drier than normal, and some degree of subnormal rainfall dates back to late spring 2024. For September – December 2024, only 27.58” of rain fell, compared to a normal of 53.04” – although this is only 52 percent of normal the monthly average was not too much less than would be needed to keep up with demand (32” in 4 months, so Pingelap received over 86 percent of that amount). Rainfall picked up significantly for the first week of January. About 5.5” of rain observed. For the time being, this is enough to remove the abnormally dry (D0) designation in place last week, but this location will need to be monitored closely for signs of re-development.

Kwajalein and Wotje across the northern tier of the Marshall islands continue with an abnormally dry (D0) designation, but central and southern parts of the country report adequate rainfall of late. After normal rainfall during October and November, December 2024 brought only 6.14” to the island (75 percent of normal, and considerably less than the 8” needed to approximately keep up with demand). January started even drier, with only 0.38” reported last week. Which is under half of the already-meager 0.9” that is normal for the first week of January. In Wotje, which has one of the driest climatologies of any of the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, 5.31” of rain fell in December 2024. This is slightly more than the normal, but less than what is needed to keep up with demand. The first week of January brought no rainfall to the island, furthering their dryness-related impacts. Farther south, conditions have been wetter. Across Ailinglapalap and Majuro, December 2024 was quite wet (18.88” [203 percent of normal] and 16.74” [145 percent of normal]. Jaluit did not received as much rain, but the 9.69” reported was near normal (93 percent) and more than is needed to keep up with demand. Rainfall totals were less impressive for the first week of January (0.5” to 1.5”), but the December rains preclude and dryness or drought designations at this time.

The D0 designation at Saipan in the northern Mariana Islands persisted this week while other locations remained free of any dryness or drought designations. Most locations reported 75 to 80 percent of normal rainfall for December 2024, with amounts closer to normal at rota (3.27” at Saipan, 4.77” at Guam, and 5.91” at Rota). Last week, the Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) recorded abundant rainfall, but totals were considerably lower elsewhere. Guam WFO reported 4.38” last week, including a daily-record 3.32” on January 7, but across the northern portions of that island, only about an inch fell. Other locations were drier still, reporting only a few tenths of an inch. In sum, this kept Saipan at D0 this week, with Rota likely on the cusp of abnormal dryness, but with no designation at this time.

Looking Ahead

A low pressure system is forecast to develop along the western Gulf Coast by January 10 with a rapid eastward track offshore of the Mid-Atlantic one day later. A large area of 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall is expected for eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley, while accumulating snow occurs from the southern Plains east to the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. High elevation snow is forecast to shift east from the Cascades to the northern Rockies on January 10 and 11. Farther south across California, dry weather is likely to persist through mid-January. On January 13, another Arctic high is forecast to shift south from Canada to the Great Plains.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 14-18, 2025) favors below-normal temperatures for a majority of the lower 48 states. The largest below-normal temperature probabilities (exceeding 80 percent) are forecast for the Southeast. An increased chance of above-normal temperatures is limited to the Dakotas and Minnesota. Below-normal precipitation is most likely across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and much of California. Elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast for the Southwest, Texas, and High Plains, while below-normal precipitation is slightly favored along the East Coast.

Crop Progress - State Stories

ARIZONA: This report for Arizona is for the month of December 2024. Responses were based on the entire month, with consideration for any weather-related impacts. By month’s end, 99 percent of Arizona cotton had been harvested, unchanged from the previous year’s levels, according to the Mountain Regional Field Office of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Twelve percent of the State’s barley had been planted, and 10 percent of the crop had emerged. Similarly, 9 percent of Arizona’s Durum wheat had been planted, of which 6 percent had emerged. Planting and emergence of the State’s barley and Durum wheat crop were both significantly behind the previous year’s levels. Alfalfa hay harvest continued to take place on about 45 percent of the crop’s acreage throughout the State. Arizona’s alfalfa crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition, with only 4 percent of the crop rated fair. Pasture and range conditions throughout the State improved slightly when compared to that of the previous report. Nineteen percent of the State’s pasture and rangeland was rated very poor, 39 percent was rated poor, 18 percent was rated fair, 22 percent was rated good, and 2 percent was rated excellent. Topsoil moisture levels remained mostly adequate, with 21 percent rated very short, 23 percent rated short, and 56 percent rated adequate. Subsoil moisture levels followed a similar trend. Throughout the month of December, measurable precipitation was lacking across much of the State; however, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, northern areas of the Defiance and Shivwits Plateau, as well as the Chuska Mountains, accumulated anywhere from trace amounts to 0.30 inch of total precipitation. The drought information statement for south-central Arizona, southwest Arizona, and southeast California remained in effect and was updated on December 21, 2024, in response to the driest monsoon and hottest summer-fall on record. The seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation outlooks for January, February, and March 2025 were issued by the National Weather Service on December 19, 2024. The seasonal mean temperature outlook continues to show that temperatures will likely be above normal for the entirety of the State, with the eastern two-thirds of Arizona having a higher probability of experiencing warmer temperatures than the remaining third of the State. Similarly, the seasonal total precipitation outlook continues to show that precipitation will likely be below normal for the entirety of the State, with southeastern regions having a higher probability of experiencing below average precipitation than remaining areas of the State. Arizona’s seasonal drought outlook was updated on December 31, 2024. The outlook now shows that conditions are expected to persist throughout all areas of the State that were affected by moderate drought (D1) or higher on December 24, 2024. Drought is now expected to develop across all remaining areas of the State. Streamflow conditions throughout Arizona deteriorated significantly when compared to that of the previous report. As of December 31, 2024, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed a deterioration in conditions when compared to that of the previous report. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) bounded 20 percent of the State, moderate drought (D1) enveloped 33 percent, severe drought (D2) encompassed 30 percent, and extreme drought (D3) spanned 14 percent of the State’s total land area. Arizona once again remained free of exceptional (D4) drought. Throughout the month of December, temperatures were at or above normal according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC). Daytime highs throughout Arizona ranged from 3 to 14 degrees above normal and ranged from the mid-30’s in northern Apache County to the high 70’s across south-central regions of the State. Overnight lows ranged from 8 degrees below to 8 degrees above normal and ranged from 13 to 35 degrees across northern and eastern counties, whereas counties within the Sonoran Desert experienced lows of 40 to 55 degrees. 

IDAHO: The average temperatures for January were above normal for the entire State. Accumulated precipitation was below normal for most of the State. By the end of December, Idaho County reported that over half of the ground in the county was partially covered with snow. Jerome and Twin Falls Counties reported an open winter with very little snow and above average temperatures. The last week of December saw some snow and significant rain. Conditions were good for livestock as conditions were dry and not cold enough to challenge them. Winter wheat looked good. With no snow cover and mild temperatures, the winter wheat crop fared well so far. Due to recent moisture, all fieldwork activities stopped. Farmers were working fields well into early December. The mountains received some snowpack. Blaine County reported snowfall in the area, with near normal expected amounts. Bonneville and Madison Counties reported that hay stocks looked sufficient. Recent wet snowstorms helped the water outlook, but the Upper Snake River snow levels were still at or below average. There was good snow coverage on the valley floors. Lemhi County reported getting some moisture at the end of December, with some producers starting to calve. Bannock and Bingham Counties reported snow by the end of the month as well. Lambing and calving progressed as usual. Oneida County reported average conditions for the month of December with adequate moisture as snowpack. 

MONTANA: This report for Montana is for the entire month of December 2024. Topsoil moisture 27% very short, 34% short, 38% adequate, 1% Surplus. Subsoil moisture 31% very short, 37% short, 32% adequate. Winter wheat condition 1% very poor, 5% poor, 52% fair, 39% good, 3% excellent. Winter wheat wind damage 4% severe, 10% moderate, 21% light, 65% none. Winter wheat freeze damage 2% severe, 9% moderate, 16% light, 73% none. Snow cover 11% very poor, 53% poor, 27% fair, 5% good, 4% excellent. Pasture and range condition 26% very poor, 57% poor, 16% fair, 1% good. Grazing accessibility 62% open, 20% difficult, 18% closed. Cattle receiving supplemental feed 87%. Sheep receiving supplemental feed 87%. The month of December brought above average temperatures and mostly below normal precipitation to Montana. Data from the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) indicate that temperatures ran about 6-10 degrees above average across most of the State. Moisture received was about 0.75 inch below average to normal for the majority of Montana. In some parts of central and eastern Montana, moisture levels were as much as 0.75 inch or more above normal. Drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report released on December 31, 2024, showed there was 6 percent of land rated drought free. Abnormal dryness was found in 40 percent of Montana, moderate drought stood at 27 percent, 13 percent was rated severe drought and 14 percent was at extreme drought. Those extreme drought conditions were in the eastern part of Montana and in the west central part of the State. Comments from central Montana showed 6-9 inches of snow was received. However, in the northern part of the State producers have concerns with the lack of moisture and with the snowpack being below normal. 

NEVADA: For the week ending January 5, 2025 - Days suitable for fieldwork 7.0. Topsoil moisture 5% very short, 65% short, 25% adequate, and 5% surplus. Subsoil moisture 5% very short, 60% short, 30% adequate, and 5% surplus. Pasture and range condition 35% poor, 40% fair, 20% good, and 5% excellent. There was little to no precipitation during the month. Temperatures remained normal to slightly above normal. Storms brought drying winds to the State. 

OREGON: Temperatures ranged from average to above average across most of the State. Clackamas, Multnomah, Washington, and Columbia Counties experienced extremely wet conditions, leading to erosion on open fields, steep banks, and overgrazed pastures. There were brief dry periods to harvest bare root trees. Agronomic crops, including winter grain and grass seed, generally looked good. Despite the excess moisture, the above average temperatures helped crops. Weed populations got an early start. Livestock were kept away from grazing the saturated pastures to avoid soil damage. Benton and Lincoln Counties experienced average but significant precipitation, which led to temporary flooding in some areas. Snow and ice storms have yet to manifest so far this winter season. Clatsop and Tillamook Counties experienced an onslaught of rainfall with heavy winds, which led to numerous fallen trees. Morrow, Sherman, and Wasco Counties also fell under a curtain of significantly wet conditions. The moisture, coupled with average daytime temperatures and above freezing nighttime temperatures, positively impacted crops. Fall seeded crops were behind in growth due to the dry fall. Umatilla County also welcomed moisture after a dryer than average summer and fall. Snowpack was low at both low and high elevations throughout the County. Winter wheat stands were mostly fair or good. Lake County also brought in heavy precipitation, receiving contributions from both rain and snow. Creeks and reservoirs began to fill. 

UTAH: This report for Utah is for the entire month of December 2024. Topsoil moisture 8% very short, 10% short, 82% adequate. Subsoil moisture 7% very short, 28% short, 63% adequate, 2% surplus. Pasture and range condition 1% very poor, 3% poor, 23% fair, 57% good, 16% excellent. Winter wheat condition 29% fair, 71% good. Hay and roughage supplies 8% short, 51% adequate, 41% surplus. Stock water supplies 5% very short, 12% short, 46% adequate, 37% surplus. Cattle and calves condition 1% very poor, 2% poor, 8% fair, 84% good, 5% excellent. Sheep and lambs condition 1% very poor, 2% poor, 4% fair, 87% good, 6% excellent. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for cattle 56%. Livestock receiving supplemental feed for sheep 62%. Cows calved 1%. Ewes lambed-farm flock 2%. Ewes lambed-range flock 1%. As of January 6, 2025, snowpack in Utah was 99 percent measured as percent of median snowfall. Cache County reports noted more snow was received in the mountains during December compared to lower elevations. Duchesne, Grand, and Washington Counties noted conditions were mild, warm, and abnormally dry during December with limited winter moisture received. In Grand County, concerns regarding alfalfa aphids were reported. Duchesne County reports noted cattle and sheep remained on pasture with little supplemental feed needed. 

WASHINGTON: The Statewide temperatures for December were above normal to slightly below normal throughout the State. Producers reported weather being unseasonably warm in the northwest part of the State. Vegetable growers hoped for colder temperatures to support optimal growing conditions. In the central part of the State, there was not much field activity in the crop producing areas. The weather was moderate, and snowfall provided some moisture in the area. The northeastern region had mixed days of snow and rain. Field erosion was becoming a concern due to removing soil and fall seeded plants. The east central district had a high volume of rain without a cold snap. Winter wheat was in good condition. The southeastern region also had a high volume of rain without temperatures dropping drastically. Winter wheat was looking good. 

WYOMING: This report for Wyoming is for the entire month of December 2024. Topsoil moisture 41% very short, 29% short, 29% adequate, 1 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture 45% very short, 36% short, 18% adequate, 1 percent surplus. Winter wheat condition 12% very poor, 24% poor, 59% fair, 4% good, 1 percent excellent. Hay and roughage supplies 9% short, 82% adequate, 9% surplus. Livestock condition 1% poor, 22% fair, 68% good, 9% excellent. Stock water supplies 8% short, 86% adequate, 6% surplus. Pasture and range condition 7% very poor, 21% poor, 45% fair, 21% good, 6% surplus. Wyoming received little relief from the ongoing drought conditions during the month of December. Precipitation was scattered and total accumulations varied widely across the State, ranging from a trace to 2 inches across most of the State during the month. A couple areas received upwards to 6 inches, while western Teton County received as much as 10 inches during the month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Some areas received no measurable rainfall. Temperatures ran above normal across the State, ranging from 0 to 12 degrees above average during the month, according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center (PPRCC) climate maps for the month of December. There was little change in drought conditions during December according to the United States Drought Monitor report published for December 31, 2024. The amount of land rated drought free was 0 percent, unchanged from the report published November 24, 2024. The amount of land rated abnormally dry covered 7 percent of Wyoming compared to 2 percent November 24. Moderate drought was found in 21 percent of Wyoming, compared to 36 percent on November 24. Severe drought worsened to 46 percent, compared to 40 percent on November 24. Extreme conditions remained constant at 26 percent. Reports from Goshen County indicated that the dry weather during the month has caused many cattle producers to liquidate their herds. Lincoln County reporters noted good winter conditions thus far, with mountain snowpack at median to slightly above average levels, while temperatures have been moderate and no extremely freezing nights.

Farmer Sentiment Drifts Lower While Producers Remain Optimistic About the Future

Farmer sentiment drifted lower in December as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 9 points to 136. Although the barometer weakened somewhat in December compared to November, producers still retained much of their post-election optimism about the future. The Index of Future Expectations dropped just 8 points to 153, leaving that index 59 points higher than in September and 29 points above the October reading. The Index of Current Conditionsdeclined 13 points to 100, indicating that producers’ appraisal of current conditions in U.S. agriculture and on their farms is weaker than their views regarding the future. Despite this month’s decline, the Current Conditions Index remains 24 points above its September low and 5 points higher than in October. Optimism about the future appears to be motivated primarily by producers’ expectations for a more favorable policy environment in the years ahead. The December barometer survey took place from December 2-6, 2024.

Farmers’ views about the current situation and the one-year ahead outlook differed noticeably from their five-year ahead outlook. Overall, responses to questions focused on the current situation and outlook over the next 12 months were weaker than a month earlier, while responses to questions focused on the outlook over the next five years tended to be more positive than in November. For example, the percentage of respondents who expect widespread good times in U.S. agriculture over the next five years rose to 57%, up from 52% a month ago and 34% in October. The expectation for good times extended to both the crop and livestock sectors, with the percentage of respondents expecting good times increasing by 4 points for crops and 5 points for livestock. However, when asked about financial conditions on their farms today compared to a year ago, the percentage of respondents reporting worse conditions today rose to 57% in December compared to 51% in November. When asked for their outlook for the U.S. agricultural economy over the next 12 months, 51% of producers in December said they expect bad times compared to 40% of respondents who felt that way in November.

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points in December to a reading of 48. This month’s decline came on the heels of a 13-point rise in November. The percentage of respondents who said it’s a good time to invest declined to 17% compared to 22% a month earlier, while the percentage of farmers who said it’s a bad time for investments rose slightly to 69%, up from 67%. The investment index’s decline mirrored that of the Farm Financial Performance Index, which fell 8 points in December to 98.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 5 points in December. This month’s decline follows a 5-point decline in November. Despite two months of declines, at 110, the short-term index remains 15 points above its late summer reading of 95 in September. The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, which is derived from a question that asks producers to look ahead 5 years, was down just 1 point from a month earlier, leading to a reading of 155.

Farmers’ future outlook for their farms and the agricultural sector remains noticeably more positive than at the end of summer. The drivers behind producers’ improved outlook for the future appear to be expectations for policy shifts following the November 2024 election. Expected policy shifts include environmental, estate and income tax policies. Prior to the election, over 40% of producers said they expected to face more restrictive environmental regulations over the next five years. Following the election, less than 10% of producers said they expected a more restrictive regulatory environment.  Before the election, 40% of farmers in our survey said they expected estate taxes to rise in the future. After the election, fewer than 10% said they look for estate taxes to rise within the next five years. Additionally, leading up to the election, nearly four out of ten (38%) producers said they expected income taxes to rise in the future. Following the election, that percentage also fell below 10%. Finally, over half (55%) of respondents to the December survey said they expect the fall 2024 election outcome to lead to a stronger farm income safety net than was in place prior to the election.

One area of concern for U.S. farmers continues to be the future of international trade in agricultural products. Both the November and December barometer surveys asked producers about the likelihood of a ”trade war” breaking out that has a negative impact on U.S. agricultural exports. Results reveal that many producers are concerned about this possibility. In December, 48% of farmers said they think a “trade war” that negatively impacts agricultural exports is either likely (32%) or very likely (16%). That’s up from 42% of respondents who felt that way in November. On the other end of the spectrum, just 21% of December’s respondents said that a “trade war” was either unlikely (17%) or very unlikely (4%). That’s down from 26% of farmer respondents who felt that way in November. Finally, when asked which policies or program will be most important to their farm in the next five years, “trade policy” emerged as the top choice in December, selected by 43% of producers, with “crop insurance program” trailing as the second-most common response at 17%.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment weakened in December, with concerns about the current situation on their farms and U.S. agriculture as the primary driver behind the sentiment decline. Although expectations for the future also weakened in December compared to November, it was clear that U.S. producers continued to be markedly more optimistic about the future than they were as recently as September. Expectations among farmers for more favorable regulatory, estate tax and income tax policies over the next several years explain much of the optimism about the future. However, the possibility that a “trade war” could break out that has a negative impact on U.S. agricultural exports is a rising concern among farmers, with more farmers expressing concerns about agricultural trade in December than in November.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (1/7)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (1/6)

This Week's Drought Summary (1/2)

Precipitation fell across much of the U.S. this week, with heavier amounts (> 1 inch) falling across large portions of the Northwest U.S. and from south-central U.S. to the Ohio Valley. Coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, from Washington to northern California, reported weekly rainfall totals between 2 to 15 inches, while precipitation totals of 2 to 10 inches were reported in areas from eastern Texas to Alabama, as well as parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Above-normal precipitation supported drought improvements across large portions of the South and Midwest, and in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Midwest and Southeast. Conversely, weekly precipitation totals were below normal in areas of the southwestern U.S., Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Drought and abnormal dryness were expanded or intensified in portions of the Southwest and in small pockets of the High Plains. Temperatures were above normal across much of the U.S. this week. Areas along the Northern Tier, from northern portions of the West, to the Midwest observed temperatures 10 to 25 degrees above normal. Below-normal temperatures were reported across northern portions of the Northeast, from northern New Jersey to Maine, where departures were up to 5 degrees F below normal this past week. Below-normal temperatures were also observed in small pockets of the Southeast this week.

Northeast

Precipitation fell across much of the Northeast this week, but amounts were mostly near to below normal and enough to prevent further degradations across the region. Heavier rainfall amounts (1 to 2 inches) were observed in portions of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, resulting in improvements of moderate to extreme drought in this area. Recent rainfall also justified improvements to severe drought in southern New York and in parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts, while moderate drought was improved in northern parts of West Virginia and Maine. Abnormal dryness was also improved in areas of western New York and southern West Virginia. For the week, average temperatures varied across the region, with above-normal temperatures being observed across most of the region. Below-normal temperatures were observed from western New York to West Virginia, with departures ranging from 1 to 15 degrees F below normal.

Southeast

Warmer temperatures dominated the Southeast this week, with departures ranging up to 9 degrees F above normal. Small areas located in Georgia, Virginia and along the North Carolina-Virginia and Georgia-South Carolina borders observed below-normal temperatures this week, with temperatures between 1 to 3 degrees F below normal. Weekly rainfall totals of 2 inches or more were observed across much of Alabama and in parts of northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and in southern portions of South Carolina and Florida. Extreme drought was reduced in northern Alabama while severe drought was removed from southern Alabama and trimmed in central and northern parts of the state. Moderate drought was removed from southern Florida and improved in parts of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. Large areas of abnormal dryness were improved in western North Carolina, northern Georgia, South Carolina and in southern Florida. Drought reduction and improvements were based on precipitation amounts, short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC short-term blends, and improvements to streamflow and soil moisture data.

South

Heavy rainfall was observed across much of the South this week, with precipitation totals ranging between 1 to 8 inches above normal. Above-normal rainfall, with amounts up to 600% above normal, along with improvements shown in short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow and soil moisture data, supported widespread improvements to drought made from eastern Texas to Mississippi this week. Severe drought was removed along the Oklahoma-Texas and Louisiana-Arkansas borders, as well as from southern Mississippi, and improved in central Texas. Moderate drought was improved over large portions of Arkansas, eastern Texas, and in parts of Oklahoma, Louisiana and Mississippi. Conversely, western portions of Oklahoma and Texas observed below-normal precipitation this week. Moderate drought and abnormal dryness were expanded in small parts of western Texas. Temperatures were above normal across the entire region this week, with departures ranging between 1 to 15 degrees F above normal.

Midwest

Above-normal temperatures, with departures ranging between 5 to 20 degrees F above normal, were observed across the entire Midwest region this week, with the largest temperature departures being observed in northern Minnesota. Precipitation was reported across most of the region this week, with much of the region observing weekly rainfall totals between 200% to 600% above normal. Severe drought was removed from northern Indiana and improved in southeast Ohio, while moderate drought was improved in large portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and in parts of Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri. Below-normal precipitation was observed over western portions of Minnesota and Iowa, and in parts of northern Michigan, southeast Ohio and eastern Kentucky.

High Plains

Warm temperature dominated the High Plains this week, with departures ranging up to 20 degrees F above normal, especially along the northern portions of the region. Precipitation fell across much of the region this week, but amounts were not large enough to justify large improvement across much of the High Plains. Extreme drought was expanded in northern Nebraska, while moderate drought was expanded in southeast Kansas. Abnormal dryness was expanded in southwest Colorado, where weekly rainfall totals are 5% to 20% or normal for the week. Small areas of the region did observe heavy rainfall, where rainfall totals were more than an inch above normal. This above-normal precipitation allowed for improvements to be made in South Dakota and along the Wyoming-Colorado border. Moderate to extreme drought were improved in northern Colorado and southern Wyoming, while severe drought was improved in western South Dakota. Abnormal dryness was also improved in areas along the Wyoming-Colorado border this week.

West

Average temperatures were above normal across nearly the entire region this week, while small pockets of below-normal temperatures were observed in northern California and along the southern coast of California, where temperatures were between 1 to 3 degrees F below normal. Conversely, Montana observed temperatures ranging between 6 to 15 degrees F above normal this week. Precipitation varied across the region this week, with heavy amounts falling in northern portions, while some areas in the southern portions of the region observed no precipitation. In the north, precipitation amounts of 1 inch or greater fell across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern California, with some areas receiving up to 8 inches above normal for the week. Moderate to severe drought were improved in western Montana and eastern Idaho, while moderate drought was removed in southeast Oregon and trimmed in the northeastern part of the state. Abnormal dryness was improved in northeast Oregon and in small parts of eastern Washington and southern Idaho. In the southern part of the region, above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation resulted in expansion of drought in Arizona, California and Nevada. Extreme drought was expanded in southern Arizona, while severe drought was expanded in southern and northwestern parts of the state. Moderate drought was expanded in western and eastern Nevada, southern California and across parts of Arizona, while abnormal dryness was expanded in parts of California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico this week.

Caribbean

Puerto Rico remains drought-free this week based on recent precipitation, vegetation health and soil moisture data.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, briefly heavy downpours on December 27-28 helped to maintain drought-free conditions. During the late-December deluge, 24-hour totals of 2 to 4 inches were common across St. Thomas and St. Croix, with slightly lower amounts observed on St. John. The Vegetation Health Index (VHI) indicates lush conditions across all three major islands, especially when compared to the same time a year ago, when the territory was still emerging from drought. Groundwater reserves remain abundant, with the December 31 depth to water at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Adventure 28 Well on St. Croix approximately 18 feet closer to the surface than last year at this time. Similarly, depth to water at the Grade School 3 Well on St. Thomas was less than 2 feet on December 31, compared to more than 10 feet as recently as October 26, 2024. Year-to-date rainfall at Windswept Beach has topped 70 inches, representing the third-highest total in the last 40 years behind 76.41 inches in 2017 and 75.56 inches in 2010.

Pacific

Precipitation continues to be below normal across areas of western Alaska. Abnormal dryness was introduced into parts of the Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta, where conditions are impacting communities.

No changes were made to drought coverage and intensity across Hawaii this past week. Drought coverage remains widespread throughout Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, seasonably drier weather has developed across northern areas, while abundant showers continue mainly well south of 10°N Latitude. During the drought-monitoring period ending December 31, rainfall across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) totaled more than 5 inches in several locations, including Kosrae and Pohnpei. However, moderate drought (D1-S) persisted for Yap, FSM, where rainfall has fallen short of the 2 inches needed to meet most water requirements in each of the last 5 weeks. Additionally, abnormal dryness (D0-S) was introduced for Pingelap, FSM, where less than 2 inches of rain has fallen each of the last 4 weeks and 6 of the last 7 weeks. Meanwhile in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), abnormal dryness (D0-S) continued for Kwajalein and Wotje. December rainfall for Kwajalein totaled 6.14 inches, with only 0.70 inch falling during the last 12 days of the month. Wotje reported a fourth consecutive week with rainfall totaling 1.50 inches or less, with negligible rain falling the last 2 weeks. Farther west, mostly dry weather dominated the Marianas, with many locations reporting weekly rainfall totaling 0.50 inch or less. Abnormal dryness (D0-S) persisted across Saipan, where rainfall at the international airport totaled just 3.20 inches (88% of normal) from December 1-30. Elsewhere, neither dryness nor drought was observed across American Samoa and the Republic of Palau. An official observation site (Koror) in the Republic of Palau received December rainfall totaling more than 18 inches.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (December 31, 2024–January 4, 2025), A low pressure system tracking from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast will spread precipitation across those regions Tuesday-Wednesday. Precipitation should fall as rain for most of the Ohio Valley to the coastal areas/lower elevations of the Northeast. Snow is likely in the higher elevation areas of the Interior Northeast like the Adirondacks and the Green and White Mountains. The Pacific Northwest will see a relative break in precipitation on Tuesday after a steady train of atmospheric rivers into the region. But by Tuesday night or Wednesday moist inflow may get renewed there and rounds of precipitation are likely to continue through late week and at times farther east into the northern Rockies. The eastern U.S. can expect one more day of above average temperatures (by 10-15F) on Tuesday, before upper troughing pushes along a series of cold fronts that gradually cool temperatures to near normal on Wednesday and gradually below normal into late week. High temperatures by Saturday are forecast to be around 10-15F below normal for the Ohio Valley to Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic while lows should be 5-10F below average. Colder than normal temperatures will also impact the north-central U.S., and lows could reach 10-15F below zero over northern North Dakota and Minnesota by Friday and/or Saturday. Meanwhile, the amplifying upper ridge over the West will promote warming, with temperatures generally 5-10F above average increasing in coverage by the second half of the week. Locally higher anomalies are likely in the Southwest and highs could reach well into the 70s. Highs of 5-15F above normal may reach into the southern High Plains by next Saturday.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 5–9, 2025) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the U.S., with below-normal precipitation favored in portions of the Southwest and Northeast, as well as parts of northern Alaska and on southern parts of the Big Island. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii and across much of the West and Alaska, while below-normal temperatures are likely from the northern Rockies to the East Coast, and in northern parts of Alaska.