A dry week dominated the weather over much of the country with only portions of southern California and in the South along the Gulf Coast recording significant precipitation for the week. The current week started with a significant, even historical, winter storm event that impacted the coastal areas of the Gulf Coast. Several locations set all-time records for snow amounts with some locations in Louisiana having 9-10 inches of snow for the event. Some locations in the Florida panhandle also recorded 6-9 inches of snow during this event. Colder-than-normal temperatures dominated the country with the coldest readings in the Southeast, where departures were 10-15 degrees below normal, and in the northern Rocky Mountains with similar departures from normal. Portions of the northern Plains were warmer than normal, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal in the Dakotas and into portions of eastern Montana and western Minnesota.
Northeast
The Northeast had cooler-than-normal temperatures this week, with departures of 10-15 degrees below normal over southern areas including Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Dry conditions dominated the region with little to no precipitation over most areas. As the last few months have been on the dry side, drought indicators started to pick up on this, especially hydrological indicators. Abnormally dry conditions expanded in southern New York into northern Pennsylvania and into the central portion of the state. Severe drought expanded over more of eastern Pennsylvania and into New Jersey. Abnormally dry conditions have expanded in West Virginia while moderate drought increased over much of southern and northeast Virginia. Severe drought also expanded to cover all of southern Maryland and northeastern Virginia.
Southeast
A historical winter weather event impacted the area early in the week with snow in many places throughout the region. The greatest precipitation amounts were in southern Georgia, Florida, and into southeast Georgia. The recent wet pattern in Florida allowed improvements in the northern and central portions of the state as well as into the Panhandle to moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions. Dryness was still lingering in southern Florida, where moderate drought was pushed eastward towards the coast this week. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions were improved in southeast Georgia while abnormally dry conditions were expanded slightly in the northern portions of the state. In North Carolina, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions increased in the western part of the state while some moderate drought expanded in the northeast. In Alabama, abnormally dry conditions improved in the south and expanded slightly in the northern part of the state.
South
Most of the region was dry for the week outside of those areas impacted by the winter storm that traversed across the Gulf Coast areas of Texas and into central Louisiana and Mississippi. Temperatures were cooler than normal over the entire region with the greatest departures over southern Louisiana into Mississippi where temperatures were 12-16 degrees below normal. Improvements were made to the abnormally dry conditions in Mississippi and in portions of east Texas. Severe and extreme drought was expanded in southern Texas with regards to the long-term drought signals in place, especially on the hydrologic systems in the region. Dryness continues in Tennessee with degradation in the southern, middle and eastern potions of the state as moderate, severe and extreme drought all expanded this week.
Midwest
It was a dry week for the region, outside of the far northern tier along the Canadian border where some areas had normal to above-normal precipitation. Temperatures were colder than normal throughout the region with departures of 6-9 degrees below normal except northern Iowa and Minnesota where temperatures were near normal to 3 degrees above. Most of the area stayed the same this week with only some expansion of moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions in Missouri. The recent wetter pattern allowed for some improvements over northern Michigan and into the upper peninsula with a reduction of moderate and severe drought along with abnormally dry conditions.
High Plains
Northern areas were warmer than normal with departures of 3-9 degrees above normal in the Dakotas and northeastern Montana. Colder-than-normal temperatures dominated the rest of the region with some areas of Wyoming 12-15 degrees below normal for the week. Areas of western South Dakota, southwest North Dakota, southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming improved this week as conditions over the last few months were reassessed and the indicators were not aligning with the drought depiction. In many instances the drought is still considered severe or worse, but where the intensity was reduced, it was due to not all the indicators converging to what was being shown. In Wyoming, conditions were improved in the central and southwest where severe and moderate drought as well as abnormally dry conditions were improved. Some extreme drought was extended in the Wind River where snow and precipitation numbers supported the change.
West
Temperatures were colder than normal over almost the entire region, with departures of 9-12 degrees below normal in the northern Rocky Mountains and 3-6 degrees below normal most other places. Most of the region was drier than normal this week with only some areas of southern California, western Arizona and eastern Montana recording above-normal precipitation. The dryness allowed for the expansion of moderate drought into the central valley of California where the water year has continued to be drier than normal. In Arizona, the winter continues to be on the dry side and allowed for the expansion of moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions over the western, northern and southern portions of the state. In Nevada, moderate and severe drought were expanded over the eastern part of the state and were also expanded in the southern portions of Utah. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded over western Washington and abnormally dry conditions were filled in over northwest Montana. In Colorado, abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought expanded over the west, south and southwest portions of the state with a new area of severe drought added in the south.
Caribbean
No changes were made in Puerto Rico this week
The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Rainfall amounts this week were generally under an inch (with a few spots on St. Croix receiving over an inch of rain), along with slightly decreasing well levels. However, beyond the last month, conditions are still wet in most locations, and abnormal dryness has not yet developed.
Pacific
In Alaska, the abnormally dry conditions in the west were removed this week due to the recent snowfall in this area. Southeast Alaska continues to dry out and will need to be monitored for any introduction of abnormally dry conditions.
In Hawaii, there were a couple of frontal passages that produced enough rainfall to show improvements over several of the islands. On Kauai and Maui, a one-category improvement was introduced over northeast parts of the island and for all of Oahu. On Molokai, the eastern half of the island also received enough rain to allow a one-category improvement. In Maui, the windward slopes received heavy rainfall allowing for a one-category improvement. On the Big Island, one-category improvements were made over the eastern side of the island while severe drought expanded, and a couple new pockets of extreme drought were added to the western side of the island south of Upolu Point.
Relatively dry weather occurred in American Samoa this week, with rainfall amounts varying from 0.38 inches at Toa Ridges to 0.55 inches at Pago Pago Airport to 1.4 inches at Siufaga Ridge. American Samoa remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.
Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week, though 1.83 inches of rain at Koror marked the second consecutive week that the site reported less than 2 inches of weekly rainfall.
Recent dry weather continued this week on Guam, where less than an inch of rainfall was reported at most stations. For this week’s Drought Monitor, conditions have degraded to short-term abnormal dryness. Short-term abnormal dryness continued on Rota, where less than an inch of rain was reported this week. Less than a tenth of an inch of rain was reported on Saipan, and short-term severe drought continued this week.
On Yap, 0.61 inches of rain were reported, and short-term moderate drought continued. No Drought Monitor depictions were made for Ulithi or Fananu as no data were available at either location. On Woleai, 1.56 inches of rain were reported this week, and they remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Chuuk reported 1.91 inches of rain this week, and short-term abnormal dryness continued. Lukunor and Nukuoro remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, where 8.35 and 4.76 inches of rain fell this week, respectively. On Kapingamarangi, only 0.86 inches of rain fell this week, though the island remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, as water catchments are at good levels there per local reports. Pohnpei remained free of drought or abnormal dryness after receiving 8.94 inches of rain this week. Pingelap reported 1.33 inches of rain this week and remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Kosrae also remained free of drought or abnormal dryness, reporting 5.16 inches of rain this week.
After 0.05 inches of rain fell in Kwajalein this week, short-term moderate drought continued. Short-term abnormal dryness on Ailinglapalap continued this week with 0.96 inches of reported rainfall, though longer-term conditions are still fairly wet given a very wet November and December. Jaluit improved to normal conditions this week after 2.92 inches of rain fell. Utirik has reported that 0.89 inches of rain have fallen during January, and their status has been changed from no data reported to short-term abnormal dryness. Little data was reported for Wotje this week, so no Drought Monitor depiction was made this week there. On Majuro, 2.05 inches of rain were reported, breaking a streak of four consecutive weeks with less than an inch of rain. Short-term abnormal dryness continued there, though conditions have likely improved a bit with this week’s rain. Mili has reported 10.31 inches of rain for the month of January, and their depiction has been changed from no data to normal conditions.
Looking Ahead
Over the next five to seven days, it is anticipated that some of the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest could see some dryness alleviated with rains from northern California to Washington. Precipitation chances appear to be good over the northern and central Rocky Mountains. The most active rainfall pattern is expected to be from the southern Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic where some areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas will see 2-3 inches of rain. Dry conditions will continue in the Southwest and northern Plains along with most of the Florida peninsula.
The 6-10 day outlooks show that the probability of below-normal temperatures is greatest in the Pacific Northwest and across the northern part of the United States into the High Plains. The best chances of above-normal temperatures will be over the Four-Corners region and along the southern tier of the U.S. into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The greatest chances of above-normal precipitation will be over northern California into the Great Basin and the northern Rocky Mountains as well as over the Midwest. The best chances of seeing below-normal precipitation are over the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast of Florida.
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