Tuesday, April 1, 2025

April 2025 Washington, D.C. Preview

Quick Fix

— President Donald Trump told reporters April 2 will be "Liberation Day" for the American economy with a rush of new tariffs.

 

— GOP lawmakers are rushing to advance a budget plan, the next key step to unlocking Trump’s massive agenda through a party-line bill.

— The Supreme Court will hear arguments in a case that will examine the constitutionality of the nation's first publicly funded religious charter school.

Trade

— President Donald Trump has promised April 2 will be “Liberation Day” for the American economy, thanks to new “reciprocal tariffs” his White House plans to unveil.

“I call it Liberation Day in America. You're going to be seeing on April 2,” Trump told reporters at the White House last week. “And I think I've been very fair. I've had, I have them set, but I think I've been very fair to countries that have really abused us economically for many, many decades.”

 

White House officials have suggested the tariffs will be aimed primarily at roughly 10 to 15 countries that are the U.S.’s top trading partners and will take into account both tariff rates and non-tariff trade barriers to determine the new levies.

 

— But the administration still hasn't decided how high those duties will be. The final tariff rate is still fluid, according to three diplomats, who were briefed on European trade chief Maroš Šefčovič’s Tuesday meeting with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and were granted anonymity to share details of the private briefing. The tariffs are expected to kick in at midnight on April 3, the people were told.

 

EU ambassadors to the U.S. were also told there is little they can do to avoid the tariffs going into force, which the Trump administration views as the beginning, not the end, of trade negotiations.

 

— Trump has also promised separate tariffs on five industries:

steel and aluminum, automobiles, lumber, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. The White House has already imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum and on autos, but the rest of the “sectoral tariff” announcements could slip until later in April or beyond.

Other countries have vowed to retaliate, which could prompt further tit-for-tat responses from the Trump administration that could quickly spiral into a trade war. That has businesses, economists and many lawmakers bracing for a spike in inflation and other painful economic fall-out, at least in the near term— Emily Cadei, Dan Desrochers and Doug Palmer

Agriculture

— Tariffs loom large: President Trump’s plan to impose levies on imports from U.S. trading partners starting April 2 is stoking anxiety among American farmers and producers and even some farm-state Republican lawmakers. The “reciprocal tariffs” come on the heels of Trump’s auto tariffs and duties on Canada and Mexico, which include a 10 percent tariff on the key fertilizer ingredient potash.

 

— USDA’s funding freezes: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has said that she will release obligated money for three rural energy programs, largely funded by the Inflation Reduction Act, but with a catch. They are offering recipients the option to “voluntarily revise” their project plans to align with the Trump administration’s purge of DEI and climate “mandates.”

 

That’s left farmers and rural energy cooperatives confused and trying to determine whether they should risk reopening their contracts since USDA would then need to re-approve any changes. Some recipients have already been contacted by the agency and given 30 days to revise their plans if they wish. It's another clear sign of the administration's efforts to align Biden-era spending programs with its broader social policy goals. Meanwhile, billions of dollars in IRA funding for other USDA programs remain frozen.

 

— Reconciliation and farm bill: Republican lawmakers looking to advance a massive reconciliation package are now weighing whether to add some favored agriculture provisions like crop insurance and reference price updates, a move that would seem to suggest that they don’t believe a farm bill reauthorization can be completed this year. — Jordan Wolman

Financial Services

— Trump’s economy: The president faces mounting dissatisfaction over the economy as Americans grapple with anticipated price hikes linked to higher tariffs. Inflation accelerated in February — before most of the levies even took effect — and consumers are increasingly pessimistic about the labor market and prices. Wall Street is also flashing warning signs; Banks have slashed their projections for future economic growth and dialed up expectations for inflation. With new tariffs set to take effect this month — and additional taxes on imports under consideration — the markets will be looking at the April 4 jobs report and upcoming releases on consumer spending for any further signs of weakness.

 

— Moving fast: Lawmakers on Capitol Hill are racing to advance a range of priorities prior to a two-week recess that begins the week of April 14.

 

The House Financial Services Committee is set to vote April 2 on legislation that would create a regulatory framework for stablecoins, or digital tokens that are pegged to the dollar. The panel will also host hearings on HUD oversight, U.S. Treasury debt and proxy advisory firms, among other matters.

 

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on several key financial regulatory nominees, including Jonathan Gould for Comptroller of the Currency, Luke Pettit for Assistant Treasury secretary and Marcus Molinaro for Federal Transit Administrator. Lawmakers are also hoping to advance to the Senate floor stablecoin legislation that the committee previously approved.

 

— CFPB’s new leader: The Senate is poised to vote on the nomination of Jonathan McKernan to lead the beleaguered Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. McKernan, a veteran regulator, would be taking over an agency that has been at the center of the Trump administration’s campaign to downsize the federal government. He was most recently in the Republican minority on the FDIC board, after stints as an adviser at the Treasury Department, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Senate.

 

— SEC chair: Paul Atkins, Trump’s pick to lead the SEC, is primed for Senate confirmation. Atkins testified before the Banking Committee at the end of March at his long-awaited confirmation hearing. While some Democrats — namely, Sen. Elizabeth Warren — attacked him over his deep ties to Wall Street firms that were clients of his consultancy, Atkins appears bound for a smooth confirmation. Once in the building, expect him to move quickly to undo much of the legacy of his predecessor, Gary Gensler, in pursuing lighter-touch regulation. — Mark McQuillan

Tax

— The tax world will be monitoring whether House and Senate Republicans can sort out their plans for a budget that will set the table for moving sweeping tax legislation this year. Once they settle on the overall parameters of a plan, lawmakers can shift their focus to the all-important details of what’s in and what’s out of legislation aimed at heading off the expiration of a slew of tax breaks later this year.

— Lawmakers will continue to juggle Trump’s nominations, including former Rep. Billy Long, his pick to head up the IRS. Long’s nomination could be rocky given his career after he left Congress hawking a scandal-plagued tax credit to businesses. Ken Kies, who was named Trump’s pick for the top tax policy job at Treasury, is also awaiting confirmation.

— Many will be watching to see how tax-filing season goes in the wake of DOGE-inspired chaos at the IRS. The agency has already been through three commissioners while being wracked by sweeping staff reductions. More are expected, especially once tax season is over, and the Treasury Department too is facing the threat of significant reductions in its workforce. — Brian Faler

Energy

— Lawmakers weigh in on potential DOE cuts: Lawmakers from both parties are urging the Energy Department to drop proposals that would cut several energy projects funded by the Biden administration — arguing in part that it could run counter to Trump’s energy dominance agenda.

POLITICO first reported that the department is drafting a list of energy projects to submit to the White House for elimination as part of a wider review of whether they align with the Trump administration’s priorities.

— Among the competing lists circulating: one suggested cutting four hydrogen production hubs in mostly Democratic-leaning states while maintaining funding for three hubs spread across mostly red states. Two direct air capture hubs for carbon dioxide in Texas and Louisiana were also suggested as cuts.

Some Republicans are now making the case directly to the administration to protect the projects they support within their states, including those boosting carbon management and hydrogen.

It’s not clear which projects Energy Secretary Chris Wright will recommend for cutting, but the flurry of concern launched by the emergence of the lists has put the spotlight on the risk of collateral damage from Trump’s push to slash spending and dismantle the Biden-era climate policies. — Kelsey Tamborrino

Employment and Immigration

— Rounding into shape: The Labor Department is slowly filling out its senior political and policy personnel now that Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Deputy Secretary Keith Sonderling have been sworn in.

With Chavez-DeRemer’s arrival, she and Sonderling — who had been working as a senior adviser at Labor since shortly after Trump took office — have been kicking Trump’s policy agenda into gear. Pro-employer groups have called on DOL to abandon its defense of Biden-era regulations, including overtime and fiduciary rules. House Education and Workforce Chair Tim Walberg has also urged the agency to scrap several rules from the previous administration.

— DEI battle kicks off: The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission began the Trump administration’s push into attacking private sector employers over their diversity, equity and inclusion programs by penning letters to more than a dozen law firms inquiring about their existing practices.

Acting EEOC Chair Andrea Lucas’ letter was quickly followed by technical assistance documents released jointly with the Justice Department describing for employees how to identify and respond to “DEI-related discrimination” in the workplace.

The White House’s decision to renominate Lucas could signal that they want her to play a role in Trump’s broader battle to reverse DEI policies inside and outside of government. — Lawrence Ukenye

Education

— Religion in schools: The Supreme Court will weigh the fate of an Oklahoma religious charter school that has blurred the lines between church and state during oral arguments scheduled for April 30.

Conservative legal organizations and authorities in conservative-led states are urging justices to overturn an Oklahoma court ruling from last year that rejected plans to open the St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School.

That ruling was a critical step in efforts to create a test case that challenges the court’s conservative majority to weigh changes to its interpretation of the First Amendment’s Establishment Clause — and clarify the precise role charter schools play in the country’s education landscape.

Charter schools are public campuses that receive taxpayer dollars and don’t charge tuition, but they have significant autonomy to operate independently and privately — outside the bounds of some state and local regulations that apply to traditional public schools.

— Some religious liberty and school choice advocates have seized on that distinction to argue that charters are therefore not state actors and are instead private entities that do not act on behalf of the government. If that’s true, proponents argue, states would have to permit public religious charter schools.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett has recused herself from the case, meaning a decision must be reached by eight justices. — Juan Perez, Jr.

Defense

— Budget buildup: President Trump's first defense budget proposal isn't expected until May, but military commanders are making sure lawmakers know their priorities.

House and Senate defense panels have started a series of posture hearings with top four-star generals and admirals. These sessions will shed light on the military's most pressing spending priorities, along with issues top lawmakers may push in upcoming defense policy and spending legislation.

Congress will also be looking for hints about what programs could get axed as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seeks 8 percent in cuts from the military services to redirect funds toward the administration’s highest priorities.

— Joint Chiefs nominee up: Senators will also weigh retired Lt. Gen. Dan Caine's nomination to be the next Joint Chiefs chair. Caine will testify at an Armed Service Committee confirmation hearing Tuesday, where he'll face pointed questions about his experience and concerns about politicization of the military given the abrupt firing this year of the former Joint Chiefs chair, Gen. C.Q. Brown.

Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) has signaled that Caine's confirmation will be a priority. Expect Republican leaders to try and quickly confirm him this month. — Connor O’Brien

Health Care

— Regulating AI in health care: So far, HHS is keeping the Food and Drug Administration staff that review technological devices and software, but it is eliminating much of the adjacent staff that supports those reviews. Last session, the FDA pushed for a bill that would clarify the agency’s ability to monitor AI products after they hit the market. There seems to be some support for that idea among lawmakers, but legislation has been elusive.

Also, the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology, which writes regulations for federally certified electronic health record platforms, has one of the only AI regulations requiring platforms to share information about the way their algorithms work. The office is small, but it plays a big role in ensuring that health systems and electronic-health-records companies don’t hoard health information.

— NIH integrity and contracts: The National Institutes of Health is expected to rescind its scientific integrity policy. While the change is being described as an effort to comply with Trump’s executive order aimed at curbing diversity, equity and inclusion, it will also rescind part of the policy designed to prevent political interference at government agencies. The political interference clause of the policy was strengthened under President Joe Biden following Trump administration efforts during the pandemic to influence the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Also, the NIH is being asked by DOGE to assess its contracts and identify 35 percent total cost reductions in coming weeks, people with knowledge of the plans tell POLITICO. They add that it’s possible this could put the big contracts NIH has, like its agreement with the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, in the cost-cutting crosshairs.

— Over-the-counter drugs: The House Energy and Commerce subcommittee holds a key hearing this week on FDA regulation of over-the-counter drugs. New FDA Commissioner Marty Makary signaled during his confirmation hearing that he'd like to see more prescription drugs become available OTC to ease price and insurance burdens on consumers. The agency is negotiating its first user-fee reauthorization package with the industry for OTC drugs, so the hearing could offer more insight into how those talks have gone and whether there are concerns over Congress meeting the Sept. 30 deadline to pass it. — Pro Health Care Team

Transportation

— Looking for “tens of billions”?: In the wake of January’s catastrophic passenger plane-helicopter crash above the Potomac River, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has homed in on two key issues: boosting air traffic controller hiring and rolling out a plan to upgrade their aging technology and infrastructure.

That plan, which Duffy has yet to release the specifics of, could soon be a major issue in Congress. The DOT chief says he plans to seek funding from lawmakers, potentially to the tune of “tens of billions” — even as Trump and Elon Musk pursue massive cuts to federal staffing and spending.

And Duffy wants to move fast: He has laid out an ambitious timeline of completing his project in about three years. He also wants Congress to provide the money “up front” to speed up the process.

He’s likely to find some receptive lawmakers, given the heightened attention on aviation safety following the PSA Airlines-Army Black Hawk collision, which killed 67 people. But muscling anything through a divided Congress can be a tall order. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), chair of the Senate Commerce Committee, previously told POLITICO that “the answer has to be a lot more than just money. We need fundamental reform. Just shoveling billions of dollars at the problem has not worked in the past.”

— The details remain hazy: Some key lawmakers who oversee DOT, including Cruz, recently said they had yet to see Duffy’s plan. And an exact price tag remains unknown, even to Duffy, who told a conference of airport executives on Thursday that he has an idea of what the total cost may be, but isn’t completely sure for now. Earlier in the month, Duffy at a news conference said the upgraded air traffic control system will move from copper wires to a combination of “fiber, wireless and satellite” and will implement new “state-of-the-art” radar, as well as upgraded terminals for controllers. He also pledged to deploy ground sensors at airports so controllers have an easier time tracking planes and can “better control their movement.”

— A role for Musk: Duffy has repeatedly expressed interest in having private companies come in to help the FAA deduce how it can quickly upgrade aging systems, including engineers from Musk’s SpaceX. So far, the agency is testing Musk’s Starlink satellite terminals on a limited basis, but that’s not to say there isn’t room for growth across the federal government to fill in communication technology shortfalls.

News of such potential expansion has irked lawmakers, Democrats in particular, who note that Musk’s involvement as both a top presidential adviser and major federal contractor poses a potentially massive conflict of interest.

— Big picture: Aviation interests — airlines in particular — have championed the recent effort to boost air traffic control hiring as well as pursue modernization, and have urged DOT to act fast. — Sam Ogozalek and Oriana Pawlyk

Technology

— TikTok: Trump’s self-imposed 75-day pause on enforcing a federal TikTok ban lifts April 5.

The White House is seriously weighing a deal with Oracle to run TikTok’s U.S. entity and oversee data security for its 170 million American users, in an arrangement that sounds a lot like the two companies’ existing “Project Texas”partnership to silo U.S. user data. A potential dealbreaker is that Beijing-based parent company ByteDance could also retain a stake and keep the algorithm in China, which security hawks and lawyers argue violates Congress’ mandate for full divestiture. So far though, backlash has been limited, with House China Select Chair John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) driving the resistance.

— Trump has repeatedly said he will push the deadline if more time is needed for a sale to come together. Members of his administration, including Vice President JD Vance who has been tasked with brokering the deal, have started expressing confidence they will meet the April 5 target while setting a low bar. Don’t expect fireworks; Vance aims to announce a “high-level” framework without all the paperwork in place. That has created much uncertainty over what happens in the interim, whether another order, an extension, or other form of grace period.

There’s also the issue of Beijing’s approval, which Trump has confirmed will be necessary. The fate of the deal could hinge in part on how the countries handle (or don’t handle) thorny negotiations over trade and foreign policy priorities. Trump for one, raised the idea of using this month’s planned tariff hikes as a bargaining chip, suggesting China could get a reduction if it seals the TikTok deal. China reportedly shut down his offer.

— Artificial intelligence: The House may advance a bill this month to criminalize nonconsensual AI-generated deepfake porn. The legislation — known formally as the TAKE IT DOWN Act passed the Senate by unanimous consent in February. Trump and first lady Melania Trump publicly backed it.

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy is reviewing more than 8,700 recommendations for the AI Action Plan. Newly confirmed OSTP director Michael Kratsios will have to navigate issues like data protections, job displacement and AI energy consumption as the office crafts the administration’s AI stances.

Some of the most dynamic AI legislation is moving in the states. In California, state senator Scott Wiener’s pared-down legislation to protect whistleblowers working on certain AI models and build a public computing cluster called “CalCompute” advanced to the state Senate Judiciary committee in late March.

— The future of AI-related export controls targeting China is still up in the air as the administration deliberates how to chart its course. On his first day in office, Trump signed a sweeping executive order on trade directing the Commerce and State Departments to review the current U.S. export control regime. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been tasked with gathering input from key agencies and delivering a report with recommendations to the White House by April 1.

Comments are open through April for the AI Diffusion Framework, which the Biden administration put in place in its last days in office. The interim final rule sorts the world into three tiers for the export of chips needed to train advanced AI; chipmakers like Nvidia and U.S. allies designated as Tier 2 including Portugal, Poland and Israel have pushed back on the rule.

— Telecom: A bipartisan group of senators is also expected in the near future to offer legislation that would sunset tech’s liability shield — Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act — within two years.

Also, the Supreme Court is expected to announce a ruling on the constitutionality of the Universal Service Fund,which offers Internet and other services to underserved communities. During oral arguments in late March, the court’s conservative bloc seemed skeptical in a case that could have much broader implications for federal agency authority.

— Antitrust: The Federal Trade Commission’s antitrust case against Meta gets its long-awaited day in court on April 14. The agency seeks to prove that Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp were anticompetitive — and if successful, it could force Meta to spin off one or both of the apps.

Although the FTC case against Meta began at the tail end of the first Trump administration, it proceeded largely under former FTC Chair Lina Khan, whose successor Andrew Ferguson has largely rejected her aggressive approach to antitrust enforcement. Observers expect this month’s trial to provide greater insight into how Ferguson will enforce antitrust laws against Big Tech, as well as his views on competition policy more broadly.

Trump’s influence could also loom unusually large. While the FTC has historically operated independently of White House influence, the president’s abrupt firing of both Democratic commissioners earlier this month has thrown that tradition into question. Meta has recently worked to ingratiate itself with the Trump administration and Republicans, and some observers believe Trump could direct the FTC to pull its punches or even abandon the case entirely.

In Congress, lawmakers may move on the One Agency Act introduced by Rep. Ben Cline(R-Va.) that would consolidate federal antitrust enforcement under the Justice Department. The House Judiciary Committee advanced the bill last Congress, but it fizzled. — Anthony Adragna, Mohar Chatterjee, Christine Mui and Brendan Bordelon

Cybersecurity

— Cutting cyber personnel and adding new leaders: As April kicks off, Congress is zeroing in on issues such as state and local cybersecurity needs as potential new federal government cuts loom.

 

At the White House, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency is set to continue its efforts to reduce federal spending, which could hit a wide range of agencies including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. More than 130 members of CISA personnel were already laid off under DOGE changes, and more cuts are expected. Also, keep an eye on the completion of a review of CISA’s election security efforts, which the Department of Homeland Security is carrying out amid a pause to all election security programs.

 

On Capitol Hill, the House Homeland Security Committee will kick off the month by holding a hearing on the State and Local Cybersecurity Grant Program, administered by CISA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which is set to expire in September without Congressional action. In addition, the Senate is still working its way through new Trump administration nominees. The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee has yet to schedule hearings for Sean Plankey, nominated to lead CISA, or for Sean Cairncross, nominated as the next national cyber director.

 

Rounding out the month, cyber experts and government officials alike will assemble in San Francisco over four days for the annual RSA Conference. While the exact officials have not been announced, expect to hear from at least a few leading Trump administration officials, along with recent past leads from agencies including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the National Security Agency and more. — Maggie Miller




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