A late-season surge of tropical moisture brought heavy precipitation and areas of flooding to parts of the Four Corners States. Amounts of 4 to locally over 6 inches were reported in parts of interior Arizona and southern Colorado. Farther east, a potent coastal storm system brought gusty winds and heavy rains to parts of the East Coast. Rainfall totals approached one foot near Georgetown and Pawley’s Island, SC while amounts of 7 to 10 inches were scattered across South Carolina and near Whiteville, NC. Totals of 4 to 6 inches were measured at scattered locations from South Florida northward through eastern Massachusetts. Wind gusts reached 60 to 65 mph at several buoys near the North Carolina Coast; Cape Lookout, NC; and Island Beach Park, NJ. In contrast, only a few tenths of an inch, at most, fell across southeast California, most of the Great Basin, the central and northern High Plains, much of the Great Plains, the Great Lakes Region, portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, much of the interior Deep South, and the Gulf Coast Region. Drought designations improved by multiple categories in some of the wetter areas across interior Arizona, southern Colorado, and eastern South Carolina while broad areas of 1-category improvement covered the central and southwestern Four Corners Region, The Middle and Lower Ohio Valley and adjacent locations, and portions of the Atlantic Coast from south Florida through southern New England. In contrast, dryness and drought persisted or intensified across large parts of the Deep South away from the Atlantic Coast, the central Gulf Coast Region, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the east-central and south-central Great Plains, and scattered locations across the northern tier of the Lower-48 from Montana through northern New England.
Northeast
Between 3 and 5 inches of precipitation fell on Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, as well as parts of east-central New Jersey and eastern Delaware. Totals of 2 to locally 4 inches were observed across the rest of central and south New Jersey, southern New England, central through southeastern New York, the central tier of Pennsylvania, much of southern and northeastern West Virginia, and parts of the Maryland higher elevations. Most locations across the Northeast Region reported moderate amounts of 0.5 to locally approaching 2 inches, with some lesser amounts reported in Downeast Maine and along the St. Lawrence Valley. This brought 1-category drought improvements to much of southern New England, finally bringing a little tangible improvement to Cape Cod, which has been entrenched in drought longer than most other locations in the Northeast. Improvement was also noted in a few areas of southern and eastern West Virginia, eastern Upstate New York, and eastern New Jersey while some areas in eastern Maine and the St. Lawrence Valley noted increasing indicators of dryness and drought.
Southeast
Eastern parts of the Southeast Region affected by the coastal storm complex experienced significant improvement in dryness and drought accompanying heavy rainfall, areas of flooding, and high winds. Much of eastern South Carolina and some adjacent areas noted 2-category improvements from 6 to 12 inches of rain while improvement was noted along many Atlantic Coastal areas from Florida through the Carolinas. Farther west, much drier conditions prevailed, along with generally above-normal temperatures. Increasing short-term rainfall deficits abetted surface moisture loss, leading to significant areas of deteriorating dryness and drought from western Virginia and northern North Carolina southward across upstate South Carolina, portions of Georgia, the northern tier of Florida, and much of Alabama. D3 (extreme drought) expanded significantly across southwestern Georgia, much of the Florida Panhandle, and adjacent Alabama.
South
Recent rainfall allowed for some improvement in dryness and drought across western Tennessee, adjacent Mississippi, central Oklahoma, and western Texas. However, deterioration was more common in aggregate across the South Region, with most of northwestern Mississippi, Louisiana, and eastern Oklahoma noting some intensification. There were scattered areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, but most of the Region recorded subnormal amounts for the week.
Midwest
Heavy rain brought widespread improvement to most of Kentucky, the southern reaches of Ohio and Indiana, eastern Ohio, and a few areas near southern Lake Michigan. A few patches in central Ohio assessed a 2-category improvement. Lesser amounts fell elsewhere, leading to scattered areas of deterioration across Illinois, central Indiana, Michigan, east-central and northwestern Wisconsin, Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, and parts of Missouri (especially the western tier). For the past 2 months, precipitation totals 4 to 8 inches below normal are fairly widespread across most of Missouri and Illinois, plus parts of southwestern Iowa and the east-central Michigan Lower Peninsula. Much of northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio are 3 to locally 5 inches below normal during this period.
High Plains
Heavy to excessive precipitation pounded the higher elevations of Colorado. Most areas from west-central through south-central portions of the state received at least 3 inches of precipitation, with much heavier amounts – approaching 8 inches in spots – falling on the higher elevations of south-central Colorado. This precipitation let to widespread improvements, with some of the wetter areas noting 2-category improvements. Elsewhere light to moderate precipitation (generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches) fell on most of the Plains and Wyoming, with amounts over an inch recorded in isolated sections of central Kansas, eastern North Dakota, and westernmost Wyoming. Significant areas of dryness development or deterioration were limited to eastern Kansas and the southern tier of South Dakota.
West
Late-season tropical moisture surged into the Four Corners States, bringing heavy to excessive precipitation to large parts of Arizona, western New Mexico, and eastern Utah. Improvement was also noted in scattered areas across central and western Utah, and southwestern Montana. The only areas of deterioration were in north-central and northeastern Montana, where parts of a few counties slid from D0 into moderate drought (D1). In other parts of the West Region, precipitation amounts were nondescript, and dryness and drought were essentially unchanged.
Caribbean
Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded through more of the southeastern Commonwealth while increased rainfall brought an end to D0 near the south-central coast.
Tropical Storm Jerry passed northeast of the northeastern Caribbean this week, resulting in increased moisture and instability over the U.S. Virgin Islands and causing intense bursts of heavy rain.
On St. Croix, CoCoRaHS stations reported various rainfall amounts for the week. VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted, 1.3 ENE) received 3.21 inches of rain, while VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW) recorded 2.98 inches. VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted, 1.9 NE) reported 2.71 inches, although two days of data are missing. VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted, 1.7 ESE) measured 2.72 inches, and VI-SC-10 (Christiansted, 1.6 E) noted 2.19 inches. Finally, VI-SC-23 (Christiansted, 6.5 W) recorded 1.63 inches of rainfall. This week, the 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value for East Hill is 1.5, reflecting the recent heavy rain. Furthermore, the SPI values for the past 3, 6, 9, and 12 months also showed positive trends due to the recent precipitation. According to the USGS, the groundwater level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) has decreased from last month’s level of 18.60 ft on September 14 to 18.15 ft this week on October 14, keeping St. Croix drought-free.
This week, St. John experienced significant rainfall across the island. Windswept Beach (VI-SJ-3) recorded 3.37 inches of rain, while Myall Point (VI-SJ-9, 0.1 S) recorded 2.92 inches. Cruz Bay (VI-SJ-5, 1.6 E) received 1.18 inches. All Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at the East End (672551) St. Johns station are positive, indicating that the island is currently experiencing wet weather conditions. As of October 14, 2025, the groundwater level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well in St. John, USVI, has decreased from 13.05 feet on September 14 to 7.65 feet on October 14, allowing St. John to remain drought-free.
St. Thomas also received significant rainfall throughout the island. For example, on October 11, 2025, the National Weather Service reported that Cyril E. King Airport on St. Thomas received 3.59 inches of rain in one day, contributing to a weekly total of 4.16 inches. The rain gauge at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 4.75 inches of rain, although data was missing for one day. Meanwhile, VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N) recorded 3.52 inches of rainfall, also with one day of missing data. Additionally, VI-ST-14 (Nadir 0.3E/Tropical Marine) observed 0.55 inches of rain, but it had four days of missing data. Additionally, the groundwater level at the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas, USVI, has decreased from 8.19 ft on September 14 to 2.59 ft as of October 14. This change indicates that St. Thomas remains drought-free.
Pacific
No drought conditions are currently present.
Despite areas of light to moderate precipitation, the dryness and drought covering most of the state is unchanged from the prior week.
This week, the majority of the Marshall Islands were drought-free, while certain islands experienced considerable rainfall. For example, Majuro, Ailinglapalap, and Wotje recorded 6.44, 4.19, and 2.68 inches of rain, respectively. Jaluit and Kwajalein reported 2.39 and 2.68 inches of rain, respectively. Additionally, Mili received 0.38 inches of rainfall this week, which has helped the island remain drought-free due to the rain in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Utirik recorded 0.43 inches of rain this week and has improved to being drought-free due to recent rains and local expert recommendations.
This week, heavy rainfall impacted several islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. Kosrae received 6.13 inches of rain, Nukuoro received 5.71 inches, and Pohnpei recorded 3.78 inches. Additionally, Yap, Chuuk Lagoon, Lukunor, and Woleai received 2.44, 2.21, 1.93, and 1.07 inches of rain, respectively, ensuring that these islands remain drought-free. Pingelap received only 0.18 inches this week but stayed drought-free due to the wet conditions in the previous weeks. In contrast, Kapingamarangi did not receive any rain and is currently experiencing severe drought conditions.
American Samoa has recently experienced significant rainfall, with various areas on the island reporting heavy downpours. Pago Pago recorded 3.51 inches of rain, Siufaga Ridge received 5.68 inches, and Toa Ridge reported 3.23 inches this week. As a result, American Samoa is currently experiencing drought-free conditions.
Palau had wet weather this week, with the Weather Service Office in Airai recording 1.35 inches of rainfall, while Koror reported 2.13 inches. As a result, the island remained drought-free.
This week, wet weather conditions prevailed in the Mariana Islands, with some areas receiving heavy rainfall. According to the weekly rainfall report, Rota recorded 2.46 inches of rain, Guam received 1.17 inches, Tinian measured 0.74 inches, and Saipan had 0.52 inches. As a result, the Mariana Islands are currently experiencing drought-free conditions.
Looking Ahead
During October 15-20, 2025, heavy precipitation (1.5 to 3.0 inches) is forecast for coastal and windward locations from the Cascades to the Pacific Ocean, across eastern Montana and adjacent North Dakota, along a frontal boundary from the Middle Mississippi Valley through the central tier of the Great Lakes Region, and across scattered locations in northwestern Pennsylvania, the Tennessee Valley, and the Lower Ohio Valley. Moderate amounts of 0.7 to 1.5 inches are anticipated in the remainder of the Pacific Northwest, the higher elevations of the northern Intermountain West, central and northern Wyoming, the northern tier of the Plains, parts of the central Great Plains, most areas from the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast Region, the interior Deep South, most of the Ohio Valley, the lower Northeast, and southern New England. Meanwhile, a few tenths of an inch at most are expected across the South Atlantic Region, most of the southern half of the Plains, and the southwestern quarter of the Lower-48. Temperatures should average generally below-normal from the Rockies westward, and above-normal from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast. Daily highs are expected to average 4 to 5 deg. F below normal from southeastern California through southern Idaho and eastern Oregon while readings top out 8 to 11 deg. F above normal on average across central and southern Texas and most of Maine.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook valid for October 21-25 favors heavier than normal precipitation across central and northern California, northwestern Nevada, and the Pacific Northwest. Chances for totals in the top one-third of historical occurrences exceed 60 percent west of the Cascades. Wetter than normal conditions are nominally favored across Hawaii, most of Alaska, southern sections of the Rockies and High Plains, central and western Texas, and from the Great Lakes through much of the mid-Atlantic Region and Northeast. Subnormal precipitation is more likely across central and northern sections of the Rockies and Great Plains as well as parts of the South Atlantic Region. Warmer than normal weather is expected from the northern Intermountain West to the Appalachians, plus much of the South Atlantic and Northeast. Southern Texas and most of Maine are most likely to experience warmer than normal weather. Unusually warm weather is also favored across the eastern half of Mainland Alaska and across Hawaii. Temperatures are expected to average closer to normal from the Rockies through the West Coast and across the Carolinas and Virginias. The central tier of Alaska is also expected to average near normal while subnormal temperatures are nominally favored across western Mainland Alaska.
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