Heavy precipitation (over 3 inches) was observed last week over many of the higher elevations and coastal areas from northern California to the Canadian Border. Farther east, similar amounts doused numerous locations from Oklahoma southward to central Texas, a few areas across the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the southern Appalachians, parts of the central Gulf Coast, the east-central Florida Peninsula, and some areas just downwind of Lake Erie. Between 5 and 10 inches of precipitation fell on a few areas in the coastal and higher elevations of Washington and Oregon, north-central through east-central Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, south-central Mississippi, and east-central Florida. Moderate to heavy precipitation (between 1 and 3 inches with isolated higher amounts) was reported across the rest of the Pacific Northwest, parts of the higher elevations in the northern Intermountain West, part of the northern Great Plains, most of central and western Michigan, a few patches across New England, and many areas from the central Carolinas to the central Great Plains, plus much of northern and central Texas, the southern Lower Mississippi Valley, and a few patches across northwestern and central Florida. Other locations across the Conterminous U.S. (“Lower-48”) received only a few tenths of an inch at best.
This resulted in significant areas of improvement in the Pacific Northwest, northern Intermountain West, the Great Plains from eastern Kansas through central Texas, the interior Deep South, the Ohio Valley, the eastern Great Lakes, the Carolinas, the southern Appalachians, and a few patches in New England. In some of the drier areas, dryness and drought conditions deteriorated in a few parts of the central and northern High Plains, the Texas Panhandle, Deep South and Coastal Texas, southern Alabama and Georgia, and small areas in the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast from New York to coastal Maine. Deteriorating conditions also affected small parts of Hawaii (Upcountry Maui, northeastern Maui, and the southeastern Big Island). Conditions in Puerto Rico were unchanged with abnormal dryness persisting in parts of southeastern Puerto Rico, and Alaska remained free of any dryness or drought.
Overall, coverage of D0 or drier conditions across the Lower-48 declined slightly from 72 to 69 percent, remaining well above the average coverage since 2000 (49.2 percent). Drought (D1 or worse) extent also declined slightly from 46.1 to 43.6 percent of the Lower-48, also above the average since 2000 (31.1 percent).
Northeast
Several inches of precipitation fell to the lee of Lake Erie, improving conditions there. Elsewhere, Light to moderate rain fell to the lee of Lake Ontario and across most of New England, with a few higher amounts observed in northern New Hampshire and eastern Maine. Over the rest of the Northeast Region, only scattered totals under 0.2 inch were recorded. Improvement was noted in southwestern and northwestern Pennsylvania, westernmost New York, some of the higher elevations in Vermont and New Hampshire, and part of eastern Maine. In contrast, deficient precipitation resulted in deterioration in southern Maine, parts of interior Upstate New York, and small sections of southern New Jersey and Maryland. Several sites in southern reaches of the Northeast report record or near-record low streamflows for late October, including the Lehigh River at Glendon, PA, Rock Creek near Washington, DC, and on some creeks near Downington, Phoenixville, and Allentown, Pennsylvania. Precipitation totals for the last 60 days are 3 to 6 inches below normal in a swath from Maryland and southern Pennsylvania through central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern and western New Jersey, Upstate and southeastern New York, and scattered areas across New England.
Southeast
Precipitation was highly variable across the Southeast Region. At least an inch fell on the central and southern Carolinas, central and northern Georgia and Alabama, the southern Florida Panhandle, and parts of the central and eastern Florida Peninsula. Over 3 inches doused western South Carolina and adjacent areas, isolated locations across northern Georgia, part of east-central Peninsular Florida, and coastal western Florida Panhandle. In contrast, little or no rain fell on most of Virginia, southern Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and most areas on the Florida Peninsula.
This resulted in a fairly solid swath of improvement from central South Carolina westward into the southern Appalachians and the northern and western sections of Alabama. Farther south, where rainfall was lighter and more scattered, deterioration was introduced in southeastern Alabama, part of southern Georgia, plus portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Peninsular Florida.
The most intense drought conditions now cover a broad swath across northern Florida and adjacent portions of Georgia, where D3 conditions now dominate. Smaller areas of D3 cover west-central Alabama and northwestern Georgia. D2 is extant in surrounding areas plus southeastern Alabama, eastern North Carolina, and part of northern Virginia. Overall, coverage of dryness and drought decreased a bit from 85.0 to 81.7 percent, but the more intense categories (D2 or worse) climbed from 19.1 to 22.9 percent, largely due to continued quick deterioration in northern Florida and surrounding areas. The largest deficits over the past 60 days cover parts of the Virginia Blue Ridge, eastern North Carolina, and in some areas near the Florida/Georgia/Alabama borders. In these areas, accumulated precipitation deficits total 4 to 8 inches since late August.
South
Heavy rains in many regions engendered broad areas of improvement across most of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Some areas of deterioration were observed in areas that missed the heavy rains, specifically southern and coastal Texas, part of the Texas Panhandle, and a few patches of the Red River (South) Valley. Several inches of rain resulted in a few swaths of 2-category improvement across central and east-central Texas as well as central Oklahoma, where upwards of 4 to 8 inches of precipitation were observed. Overall, coverage of dryness and drought dropped from 80.6 to 68.6 percent of the Region while drought coverage (D1 or worse) was reduced from 37.1 to 27.6 percent. D3-D4 extent inched down slightly from 10.7 to 9.6 percent. But despite the wet week, 90-day rainfall amounts ranged from 3 to 6 inches below normal across much of the Red River (South) Valley, and from 4 to locally over 10 inches from central Texas eastward along and near the Gulf Coast.
Midwest
Several inches of precipitation fell to the lee of Lake Erie, leading to a swath of 2-category improvement in northeastern Ohio. Moderate to heavy precipitation was reported across northern Upper Michigan, western Lower Michigan, northwestern Minnesota, southeastern Missouri, and areas near the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers’ Confluence. Other locations across Michigan, northern Minnesota, and southern half of Missouri, and central through southern Kentucky observed light to locally heavy totals while most areas from southern Minnesota, Iowa, and northern Missouri eastward across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio experienced a dry week, with only isolated sites reporting up to 0.2 inch. Some of the wetter locations across Michigan and in the Ohio Valley felt improved conditions by the end of the week, and a few other patches of improvement were introduced based on a re-assessment of heavy rains earlier in the month. Deterioration was introduced across portions of the dry swath from Iowa into Indiana. Overall, coverage of D0 or worse declined slightly from 71.2 to 68.8 percent of the Midwest Region, but the more intense conditions (D2 or worse) expanded slightly from 9.7 to 11.6 percent of the Region. Precipitation over the past 60 days was broadly 3 to 5 inches below normal in northern Wisconsin, part of northern and eastern Iowa, central and northern Illinois, and numerous locations across central Indiana and northwestern Ohio.
High Plains
The High Plains Region is currently the Region least-affected by dryness and drought. Only 37.2 percent of the Region is affected by dryness (D0) or drought (D1-D4). Colorado and Wyoming are the most drought-impacted states, with almost 55% of those states combined covered by D0 conditions or worse, and about one-third experiencing some degree of drought (D1-D4), primarily in the higher elevations. In the Great Plains states, there is no drought in North Dakota and D0 covers less than 3 percent of the state. Dry conditions are a little more common farther south, with D0 or worse covering 39 percent of South Dakota, 35 percent of Nebraska, and 25 percent of Kansas. In all 3 states, drought (D1 or worse) coverage is less than 13 percent. Last week, moderate to locally heavy rain induced areas of improvement in eastern Kansas and far northwestern Wyoming while patches of deterioration were introduced in eastern South Dakota and small parts of south-central Colorado and far northeastern Kansas.
West
Following substantial changes across the West Region last week, conditions generally persisted across all but the northern tier of the West Region, with no changes made relative to last week across New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and most of California. Across the northern tier of the West Region, heavy precipitation engendered improvement in a few areas, mostly across northern California, Oregon, and Washington from the Cascades to the Pacific Coast. Many locations in the higher elevations of Washington and near the Washington and northern Oregon coastline measured over 3 inches of precipitation, with scattered amounts of 4 to locally over 8 inches recorded, particularly in northwestern and north-central Washington. Farther east, recent precipitation led to some improvement across western Montana and northern Idaho while, to the east, recent deficient precipitation totals led to deterioration across north-central Montana.
Caribbean
Abnormal dryness (D0) remained unchanged from last week after some spotty light to moderate rain in Puerto Rico.
The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought. The National Weather Service’s 7-day quantitative precipitation estimates indicated that St. Thomas received 0.50 to 1.5 inches, St. John collected 0.50 to 1.0 inches, while St. Croix got 0.50 inches or less. The Vegetation Health Index indicated some minor stress for St. Croix. The levels in water wells on all islands rose over the past month and were beginning to drop again.
Pacific
No dryness or drought is currently present in Alaska.
Rainfall was again hit-and-miss across the island chain last week. Last week’s Drought Monitor depiction is largely unchanged this week, outside 3 areas which intensified: Upcountry Maui (to D2), northeastern Maui (to D1), and part of the southeastern Big Island (to D2). The latter region is climatologically wet, and some locations reported only about two-thirds of normal precipitation for January through late October, which equates to nearly 3 feet below normal.
The Republic of Palau received more than 3 inches at Palau International Airport, while Koror COOP received just 0.58 inches got ample rainfall in previous weeks. Water supplies should be adequate as these locations need 2 inches per week to meet minimum water needs.
The Mariana Islands had ample rain at most locations. Guam received 2.13 inches, while Saipan received from 1.72 to 3.45 inches at the three reporting locations. Rota reported just 0.88 inches and more than 2 inches in previous weeks. These islands need an inch weekly to meet minimum water needs.
Most locations in the Federated States of Micronesia received at least two inches of rainfall. The exceptions were Kapingamarangi, which remained at D2, and collected just 0.45 inches of precipitation. Pingelap reported only 0.04 inches of rain and was thought to have some issues with the rain gauge as the island was not lacking rain. Some of the higher precipitation amounts were noted at Pohnpei and Woleai with 6.39 and 4.99 inches, respectively.
All locations in the Marshall Islands received at least 2 inches of precipitation this week or the previous week, so water supplies should be adequate.
American Samoa remained free of dryness. Pago Pago and Siufaga Ridge received 3.73 inches and 2.45 inches, respectively. Toa Ridge got 0.97 inches and nearly 6 inches the week prior.
Looking Ahead
Over the next 5 days (October 30 – November 3), a large part of the Lower-48 is expecting little or no precipitation, specifically most areas from the Appalachians to the Pacific Coast. Light to moderate amounts are forecast for most of interior New England, the central and southern Appalachians, the Oregon Cascades and Coast, the higher elevations of the Intermountain West, much of Peninsular Florida, and portions of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Heavier amounts exceeding 1.5 inches are anticipated across the Washington Cascades and Coast, isolated spots near the central and western Gulf Coast, much of the middle and upper Ohio Valley, most of a broad swath from Maryland through New York, and the Florida Keys. Daily high temperatures are forecast to average 2 to 4 deg. F below normal across the Southeast, and near normal over the Northeast and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Unusual warmth featuring daily Highs 4 deg. F or more above normal is expected across the northern Great Plains and most locations from the High Plains to the Pacific Coast, outside the Pacific Northwest. Average daily highs could reach 10 to 14 deg. F above-normal across the eastern Great Basin and the central and northern Rockies.
During November 4 – 8, wetter than normal weather is again expected in the Pacific Northwest, expanding to cover the northern Intermountain West, western Great Basin, and central through northern California. Odds for wetness exceed 50 percent from northwestern California through central and western parts of Washington and Oregon. Elsewhere, wet weather is marginally favored in much of the South Atlantic, south-central and southeastern Alaska, and portions of northern Alaska. Meanwhile, most of a large swath from the Rockies to the Appalachians have enhanced odds for drier-than-normal conditions, with chances topping 50 percent across New Mexico and the western half of Texas. Subnormal precipitation is also marginally favored across all but the eastern fringe of the Big Island in Hawaii. Warmer than normal conditions are favored from the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley through most areas from the Mississippi Valley to the Pacific Coast. Enhanced chances for warmer-than-normal weather also cover southern Florida, south-central and eastern Alaska, and Hawaii. Most areas over and near the central Rockies have chances for warmth exceeding 80 percent. Subnormal temperatures are only favored in New England and adjacent New York. In other areas, near normal temperatures are most likely.
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