This Week's Drought Summary (11/20)

Dry weather covered most of the central and eastern U.S. this week, with a few localized areas of heavier precipitation falling in the Northeast and parts of eastern South Dakota. In the West, heavy rain and snow was widespread, especially in parts of southern Nevada, southern and coastal California, the Sierra Nevada, the Pacific Northwest and northwest Montana. Temperatures west of the Mississippi River were mostly warmer than normal, especially in Montana and Wyoming, where temperatures of 12 or more degrees above normal were common. East of the Mississippi River, near- or below-normal temperatures were widespread, especially in southern Georgia and Florida, where temperatures were 6-12 degrees colder than normal. Given the wetter weather recently, improvements continued in parts of the Northeast, where streamflow and soil moisture continued to recover and precipitation deficits lessened. Improvements were also widespread in California and Washington, where recent precipitation has cut into or erased precipitation deficits and boosted soil moisture and streamflow. Degradations were common in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, where short-term precipitation deficits grew. Widespread degradation also occurred in parts of Nebraska, central and northeast Montana and the western Great Lakes area, as primarily short-term dryness intensified in each of these areas. Recent pockets of drier- or wetter-than-normal weather led to a few small changes in areas of abnormal dryness in Puerto Rico. Wetter weather in the windward sides of Hawaii led to local improvements on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island, where streamflows have responded well to increased precipitation.

Northeast

Precipitation continued to fall this week in the Northeast, leading to localized improvements in drought and abnormal dryness. The heaviest precipitation fell in central New York, where some areas received over 2 inches of precipitation. At least a half inch of precipitation fell across large sections of New York, New England and northern Pennsylvania. A small area near Allentown, Pennsylvania, degraded to moderate drought where short-term precipitation deficits increased and soil moisture and streamflow dropped. Widespread improvements occurred in northern New England, central, northern and western New York and a few parts of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. In these areas, recent precipitation has improved streamflow and soil moisture and cut into precipitation deficits. However, soil moisture or precipitation deficits or both are still occurring in many areas, so more precipitation is needed across the region. Temperatures this week were mostly near normal or below normal, with much of northern Pennsylvania and most of New York finishing the week 3-6 degrees colder than normal.

Southeast

This week’s weather in the Southeast was almost entirely dry, which worsened drought or abnormal dryness in many locations. Colder-than-normal weather across the region, especially temperatures 6-12 degrees below normal in southern Georgia and Florida, plus the lower sun angle, kept this week’s evaporative demand lower. In southern Georgia and portions of the Florida Panhandle, extreme drought expanded, and exceptional drought developed where large short-term precipitation deficits continued, streamflow remained low and soil moisture levels continued to drop. Short-term precipitation deficits also led to worsening conditions in central and western North Carolina and south-central Virginia. In the Florida Peninsula, short-term precipitation deficits and low water levels, low streamflows and locally poor soil moisture led to expansion of moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness.

South

Dry weather occurred across nearly the entire South region this week, which led to widespread degradations in conditions in some states. Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in parts of Texas and Oklahoma and some locales in Arkansas, while near- or below-normal temperatures were more common elsewhere. In the Texas Panhandle and southwest parts of the Lone Star State, temperatures of at least 9 degrees above normal were common. South of Oklahoma City, extreme drought developed where ponds dried up amid large short-term precipitation deficits and above-normal evaporative demand. Degradations occurred across large parts of southern Oklahoma where short-term precipitation deficits continued amid above-normal temperatures. A mix of short- and long-term precipitation deficits and warm temperatures led to degradations in southern Texas, while conditions also degraded in parts of north Texas and the Texas Panhandle during recent dry and warm weather. Short-term precipitation deficits also grew in much of northeast Texas, Louisiana, southwest Arkansas and southern Mississippi, leading to degrading conditions. Streamflow and soil moisture levels also were low in some areas that worsened this week.

Midwest

This week, scattered precipitation fell in parts of central and eastern Missouri, Illinois, southern Indiana, northern and eastern Iowa and the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Otherwise, primarily dry weather occurred. In Decatur, Illinois, stage one water restrictions began, and severe and extreme drought expanded in the area surrounding Champaign-Urbana as shortages in soil moisture and precipitation intensified again. From northeast Iowa into the western Great Lakes area, moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness developed or expanded. Short-term precipitation deficits and soil moisture deficits were especially intense in the Wisconsin Northwoods, where severe drought developed and moderate drought expanded. Streamflow and soil moisture continued to struggle amid growing precipitation deficits in parts of Missouri, where abnormal dryness and moderate and severe drought locally expanded. Severe drought now covers the entire Kansas City area, where soil moisture levels continue to be low amid a very dry late summer and autumn. Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in the western reaches of the Midwest (primarily along and west of the Mississippi River), while near- or below-normal temperatures were more common in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

High Plains

Primarily dry and warmer-than-normal weather occurred in the High Plains region this week, with the exceptions of east-central South Dakota and some high-elevation areas of Colorado and Wyoming. Temperatures in Wyoming and parts of eastern Colorado were 12 or more degrees above normal this week, while eastern parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas were mostly 3-9 degrees warmer than normal. Short-term precipitation deficits and decreasing soil moisture in some areas led to expansions and development of abnormal dryness and moderate drought in parts of eastern and central Nebraska. In western Nebraska, abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded under similar conditions, while severe drought also developed where more substantial longer-term precipitation deficits were taking place. In and near the Kansas City area, moderate and severe drought locally expanded where soil moisture levels decreased and short-term precipitation shortfalls grew. Abnormal dryness expanded across the southeast Colorado plains where short-term precipitation deficits grew, while moderate drought filled in in northwest Colorado where short-term dryness aligned with long-term precipitation deficits.

West

Widespread heavy precipitation fell this week in California, southern Nevada, the Pacific Northwest and northern Idaho and northwest Montana. Locally over 5 inches of precipitation fell in northwest Washington, spots in northwest Montana and northern Idaho, and across scattered parts of California, especially in some coastal regions and the Sierra Nevada. Soil moisture levels increased across California amid the heavy precipitation. Precipitation deficits lessened in many areas or were entirely removed, leading to widespread 1-category improvements in California and localized 2-category improvements near Los Angeles. As the impact of this precipitation on the water cycle in California and Nevada is evaluated in the coming weeks, further improvements may occur. Conditions also improved after recent precipitation cut into precipitation deficits and locally improved soil moisture, groundwater and streamflow in northwest Washington, central and eastern Washington, northern Idaho and northwest Montana, southwest Arizona, and southwest Utah and along a portion of the Utah-Nevada border. Despite the widespread precipitation, weekly temperature anomalies were warm across the entire West this week. Compared to normal, Montana and Idaho were generally the warmest, with parts of Montana and southern Idaho finishing the week 12 degrees or more warmer than normal. In the plains of central and northeast Montana, moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness quickly worsened amid warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier weather. In these areas, streamflow locally decreased amid growing soil moisture and short-term precipitation deficits.

Caribbean

Recent rainfall in parts of southeast Puerto Rico lessened rain deficits and improved well levels, leading to localized improvement to abnormal dryness. In north-central Puerto Rico, drier weather this week continued below-normal rainfall over the last month. In turn, streamflows have decreased and abnormal dryness developed. Temperatures in Puerto Rico this week were mostly a degree or two warmer than normal.

This week, St. Thomas, St. Croix, and St. John experienced modest rainfall driven primarily by trade‑wind showers rather than organized storms. The depth to water level from the land surface also showed an increasing trend, showing relatively drier conditions across the islands.

On St. Croix, most CoCoRaHS stations reported less than one inch of rainfall for the week. The highest recorded rainfall was at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted, 1.3 ENE), which received 0.64 inches. Next, VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted, 1.7 ESE) measured 0.45 inches, followed by VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted, 1.9 NE) with 0.24 inches. VI-SC-30 (Christiansted, 1.7 SW) recorded 0.12 inches, while VI-SC-10 (Christiansted, 1.6 E) observed 0.14 inches. Finally, VI-SC-23 (Christiansted, 6.5W) reported the least rainfall at 0.15 inches. This week, the 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for East Hill is -1.26, indicating drier-than-normal conditions. According to the USGS, the depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well in St. Croix, USVI, has increased from 18.04 feet on October 19 to 18.36 feet on November 18. Additionally, compared to the same date last year (November 18, 2024), when the water level was 17.39 feet, this week's reading shows an increase. This trend indicates that St. Croix is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

This week, St. John experienced light rainfall across the island. Windswept Beach (VI-SJ-3) recorded 0.57 inches of rain, while Cruz Bay (VI-SJ-5, 1.6 E) saw 0.27 inches. The depth to the water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well in St. John, USVI, has increased from 7.49 feet on October 19 to 9.0 feet on November 18. However, this depth is still relatively lower than a month ago, indicating that St. John remains drought-free this week.

St. Thomas also received light rainfall throughout the island. The rain gauge at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 0.56 inches of rain, whereas VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N) recorded 0.38 inches of rain. The depth to the water level below the land surface at the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas, USVI, has increased from 2.08 feet on October 19 to 4.72 feet as of November 18 (this week). Despite this increase, St. Thomas remains drought-free this week due to a decrease in the depth to the water level from the land surface over the past few months.

Pacific

Weather across most of Alaska, excluding the southeast, was drier than normal this week. Temperatures in the south-central, east-central and central parts of Alaska were colder than normal, with some locations having temperatures 6-12 degrees below normal for the week. Temperatures were near or above normal in the southeast, where some locations finished the week 3-9 degrees above normal. Temperatures 3-9 degrees above normal also occurred in the North Slope area. Despite the drier weather in parts of Alaska this week, abnormal dryness has not developed.

Wetter-than-normal weather occurred recently in windward slopes of parts of Hawaii, leading to improvements in areas of increased streamflow and lessened precipitation deficits, especially in northeast parts of the Big Island, northern East Maui and part of the north coast of Oahu. Extreme drought remained in parts of the Big Island and Maui, while severe drought also remained in parts of Molokai and Oahu. Temperature across the state were mostly within 1.5 degrees of normal.

The Marshall Islands have been impacted by a north-south displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)/monsoon trough, bringing repeated showers and heavy rain. Most areas are free from drought, while some islands reported significant rainfall: Mili received 5.74 inches, Wotje 3.85 inches, and Majuro 3.22 inches. Moderate rain was recorded in Ailinglapalap (1.18 inches) and Jaluit (1.17 inches), while Utirik had only 0.08 inches. No data is available for Kwajalein for analysis this week.

The FSM region experienced an active ITCZ/monsoon trough, resulting in persistent showers along windward coasts and heavier rainfall in mountainous areas. Thus, Kosrae received 6.27 inches of rain, Woleai received 3.92 inches, and Pohnpei recorded 3.79 inches. Additionally, Chuuk Lagoon, Nukuoro, and Yap received 2.15, 1.13, 1.93, and 1.11 inches of rain, respectively, keeping these islands drought-free. Lukunor had 0.9 inches of rain and remains free of drought due to earlier wetter conditions. Kapingamarangi, however, recorded only 1.26 inches this week after receiving 5.1 inches in one day last week, and remains in severe drought conditions. There is no data for Pingelap this week.

American Samoa experienced several days of moderate to heavy rainfall this week, attributed to a moist trade-wind pattern, low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ, tropical waves, and orographic uplift in mountainous regions. For instance, Pago Pago recorded 2.55 inches of rain, while Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge received 1.7 inches and 1.07 inches of rain, respectively. As a result, American Samoa is currently experiencing drought-free conditions.

This week, Palau experienced frequent showers and localized heavy rain due to its location near the western edge of an active convective band associated with the monsoon trough and tropical waves. Koror reported 2.47 inches of rainfall, while the Weather Service Office in Airai (WSO Palau) recorded 3.11 inches. As a result, the island remains free of drought conditions.

The Marianas experienced mainly light trade-wind showers this week, with a few periods of convective activity, followed by a decrease in rainfall later in the week. According to the weekly rainfall report, Guam received 0.74 inches, Tinian 0.59 inches, Saipan 0.31 inches, and Rota 0.3 inches. Although the islands received less than 1 inch of rain, they remain free of drought due to the wet conditions from previous weeks.

Looking Ahead

From the evening of Nov. 19 through Nov. 24, the National Weather Service Weather (NWS) Prediction Center is forecasting a large area to receive near or over 1 inch of precipitation from southern Ohio eastward to northeast Colorado and south to northwest Louisiana and much of Oklahoma and Texas (excluding the southwest). Precipitation amounts of at least 0.75 inches are also forecast in parts of southern California, southern Arizona and southeast two-thirds of New Mexico. Heavy precipitation, locally exceeding 3 inches, is forecast in parts of western Washington. Mostly dry weather is forecast across the northern Great Plains and from the Upper Midwest eastward to most of New York and northern New England. Dry weather is also likely to continue in much of the Southeast, especially in drought-stricken areas of southeast Louisiana, southern Georgia and Florida.

For Nov. 25-29, the NWS Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation across parts of the northern, central and eastern U.S. The highest confidence areas for above-normal precipitation include the northern Great Plains and the Southeast. Drier-than-normal weather is favored in the Southwest U.S., especially in coastal California, southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico and southwest Texas. The forecast favors colder-than-normal temperatures from northern Washington east to Lake Superior and southward through the central Great Plains. In the West, warmer-than-normal temperatures are likelier from central Oregon southward along the Pacific Coast and eastward to near the Continental Divide. The forecast favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in areas from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, with the highest confidence for warmth centered over the Southeast.

In Hawaii, above-normal temperatures and precipitation are favored across the state. In Alaska, the forecast favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in central and western parts of the state, while southeast Alaska is more likely to be colder than normal. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the southwest part of Alaska, while the forecast leans towards below-normal precipitation in northern and southeast Alaska.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn 91% Harvested, Soybeans 95% Harvested as of Nov. 16

OMAHA (DTN) -- In its first Crop Progress update since the government reopened, the national corn harvest is lagging slightly behind average while winter wheat planting is moving along, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday.

Multiple storm systems moving through the country this week will bring rain, isolated snow and possible severe weather while improving soil moisture, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest is slightly behind at 91% complete, which is 7 percentage points behind last year's 98% and 3 percentage points behind the five-year average of 94%. Nebraska is the furthest behind at 74% harvested, 23 percentage points behind last year's pace. Indiana's crop was 93% harvested, and Kansas' crop was 92% harvested.

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest continued on pace at 95% complete as of Sunday, 3 points behind last year's 98% and 1 point behind the five-year average of 96%. North Dakota was 97% harvested, and Nebraska was 84% harvested.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting is moving along to reach 92% nationwide as of Sunday, 2 points behind last year's 94% and 3 points behind the five-year average of 95%. Idaho, Oregon, South Dakota and Washington winter wheat planting are 100% complete. Nebraska is 78% planted, significantly behind both last year's pace and the five-year average which typically shows planting at 100% complete at this time.

-- Crop development: An estimated 79% of winter wheat had emerged as of Sunday, 4 points behind last year's 83% and 5 points behind the five-year average of 84%.

-- Crop condition: An estimated 45% of winter wheat that had emerged is in good-to-excellent condition, down 4 points from the previous year.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

A series of storm systems will sweep across the U.S. this week, brining widespread rain, pockets of snow, potential severe weather and beneficial moisture for soils and winter wheat, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"After the long break between reports, most producers are done with their harvest work, but for those that aren't, there are some hazards this week," Baranick said. "Three separate systems will move through the country and that will produce some significant rainfall. One is getting into the Central Plains here on Monday and will zoom across the Midwest for Tuesday. The northern edge of the rain could add up to a thin band of accumulating snow tonight into Tuesday morning across southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Another system now in California will get into the Southern Plains Wednesday night and produce widespread precipitation there eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday and especially Friday with showers lingering in the Southeast on Saturday. We may have to watch for some severe weather as well. And then one more storm system will move through the Southwest this weekend, getting into the Southern Plains on Sunday with more showers that are likely to follow a similar track through the Midwest early next week. All of these storm systems will add up to moderate and perhaps heavy rainfall in some areas. That will help to build soil moisture and reduce drought. And with the warmer temperatures in place this week, that could help to build some roots for those with winter wheat."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Harvested	91	NA	98	94
Soybeans Harvested	95	NA	98	96
Winter Wheat Planted	92	NA	94	95
Winter Wheat Emerged	79	NA	83	84
Cotton Harvested	71	NA	76	72
Sorghum Harvested	82	NA	94	94
Sugarbeets Harvested	99	NA	99	99
Peanuts Harvested	88	NA	87	89
Sunflowers Harvested	78	NA	87	85

**

National Crop Condition Summary

(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)

This Week

Last Week

Last Year

VP

P

F

G

E

VP

P

F

G

E

VP

P

F

G

E

Winter Wheat

6

13

36

37

8

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

4

11

36

41

8

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/18)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/17)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 31 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2782299 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

August Ag Prices Received Index Up 1.0 Percent; Prices Paid Up 0.9%

August Prices Received Index Up 1.0 Percent  

The August Prices Received Index 2011 Base (Agricultural Production), at 137.7, increased 1.0 percent from July and 7.2 percent from August 2024. At 105.3, the Crop Production Index was up 2.4 percent from last month and 4.7 percent from the previous year. The Livestock Production Index, at 168.1, decreased 2.5 percent from July, but increased 6.1 percent from August last year. Producers received higher prices during August for cattle, strawberries, calves, and lettuce but lower prices for market eggs, broilers, corn, and grapes. In addition to prices, the volume change of commodities marketed also influences the indexes. In August, there was increased monthly movement for cattle, grapes, calves, and broilers and decreased marketing of wheat, soybeans, corn, and strawberries.  

August Prices Paid Index Up 0.9 Percent  

The August Prices Paid Index for Commodities and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Farm Wage Rates (PPITW), at 152.0, is up 0.9 percent from July 2025 and 9.9 percent from August 2024. Higher prices in August for feeder cattle, nitrogen,  potash & phosphate, and mixed fertilizer more than offset lower prices for feeder pigs, feed grains, hay & forages, and  LP gas. 

This Week's Drought Summary (11/13)

Mostly dry weather occurred this week across the Great Plains, Minnesota and Wisconsin, the south-central U.S. and the Southwest. The northern half of California, western Oregon, western Washington, the northern Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana received moderate to heavy precipitation amounts. From northern California northward into the Pacific Northwest, amounts this week were locally over 3 inches. Locally higher precipitation amounts fell in the Northeast and in portions of the Great Lakes region. This included heavy lake-effect snow in north-central and northwest Indiana. Spotty rainfall amounts of over half an inch fell across the Southeast, but most of the region experienced a dry week. Drier weather in parts of the Great Plains and south-central U.S. led to widespread degradations, especially in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Heavy precipitation in Oregon and Idaho led to improvements in both states. Montana was split with improvement in the west and degradation in north-central areas, which continued a recent dry spell. Mostly drier weather in the Southeast led to degradations in Florida and southern Georgia and portions of Virginia. In northeast Illinois, northwest Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia and much of New England, improvements occurred after recent precipitation.

Northeast

Over an inch of precipitation fell this week across much of New York and northern New England, with a few spots receiving over 2 inches. Mostly short-term precipitation deficits improved as a result, leading to widespread improvements in ongoing drought and abnormal dryness in these areas. In northwestern Maine, lighter precipitation amounts fell and short-term deficits grew; severe drought expanded there as a result. In central and southern West Virginia, recent precipitation helped to improve streamflow and precipitation deficits, and drought severity lessened there. Temperatures in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland were mostly 2-6 degrees warmer than normal, while temperatures across the rest of the Northeast were mostly within 2 degrees of normal.

Southeast

Temperatures in the Southeast were mostly above normal this week, with many locations finishing the week 2-6 degrees warmer than normal. Most locations finished the week with less than a half inch of precipitation, with some local exceptions. The dry and warm weather this week led to worsening soil moisture and short-term precipitation deficits in southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, where moderate, severe and extreme drought expanded. Moderate drought also expanded near Tampa Bay, where soil moisture and precipitation deficits grew and streamflow dropped. Streamflow levels remained low in south-central Virginia, where short-term precipitation deficits also grew and moderate drought expanded. Farther west, moderate drought improved in southwest Virginia, where soil moisture and streamflow improved after recent rainfall.

South

Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred across most of the South this week. Temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma were especially warm, with many areas in these states finishing the week 4-8 degrees above normal. Parts of southwest Texas were even warmer, with some sites finishing the week more than 10 degrees above normal. Most of the South remained dry this week, though a few parts of central and eastern Tennessee received over a half inch of precipitation. Degradations to abnormal dryness and drought were widespread from the southern half of Oklahoma to southwest Arkansas, and from central and eastern Texas into parts of Louisiana. Short-term drought impacts were the big story in southern Oklahoma, where short-term precipitation deficits grew and soil moisture and pond levels dropped and vegetation struggled. Streamflow levels struggled in portions of central and southern Texas, while soil moisture levels also dropped in south Texas amid unusually high evaporative demand for the time of year. Short-term precipitation deficits also drove some degradation in areas of abnormal dryness and moderate and severe drought in Louisiana.

Midwest

Precipitation amounts varied across the Midwest this week. Lake-effect snow fell in heavier amounts in northern Indiana, northeast Illinois, southwest Lower Michigan and portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Over half an inch of precipitation fell across much of Ohio and central and eastern Kentucky. Temperatures varied from generally 1-4 degrees below normal in northeast Wisconsin and Michigan to 2-6 degrees above normal in southern Missouri and western Kentucky. Temperatures were variable across the rest of the region, though most areas were within 4 degrees of normal. Heavier precipitation amounts recently in north-central Ohio led to improvements where streamflow and short-term precipitation deficits improved. Heavy snowfall in northwest Indiana and northeast Illinois led to improvement in soil moisture and precipitation deficits and improvements in drought and abnormal dryness. Farther south in east-central Illinois, severe and extreme drought expanded where streamflow levels dropped and short-term precipitation deficits worsened. Short-term precipitation deficits grew in south-central and southwest Wisconsin and abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded there. Moderate drought also expanded in the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where short-term precipitation deficits grew alongside declining soil moisture levels. Moderate drought expanded in a few spots in southeast Missouri, where recent dry weather added to short-term precipitation deficits amid poor soil moisture and streamflow levels.

High Plains

Temperatures in the eastern edge of the High Plains area remained mostly within a couple degrees of normal, as a strong cold front moved into the central U.S. near the end of the period. Otherwise, most of the region was warmer than normal, especially western Nebraska and central and western portions of Colorado and Wyoming, where temperatures from 4-8 degrees above normal were common this week. Some precipitation, generally under a half inch liquid equivalent, fell from central South Dakota to northeast Nebraska. Precipitation exceeding a half inch also fell in northwest Wyoming in the vicinity of Yellowstone National Park and in a section of the Black Hills of South Dakota. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather was the rule across the region. Short-term precipitation deficits grew in parts of eastern Nebraska, where abnormal dryness expanded in coverage north and northwest of Lincoln. Portions of western Nebraska and adjacent southeast Wyoming and Colorado continued to dry as well, and abnormal dryness and some moderate drought grew in these areas. In south-central Colorado, localized degradations were also due in part to effects from longer-term precipitation deficits.

West

Temperatures were above normal across the region. Southeast California, Nevada, Utah and southern New Mexico were generally the warmest compared to normal, with many spots in these areas finishing the week 6-10 degrees above normal. Parts of the northwest U.S. saw moderate to heavy precipitation amounts this week, while most areas from central California southward and eastward were dry. Many parts of northwest Montana and northern Idaho received half an inch to 2 inches of precipitation this week. Eastern Washington mostly received over a half inch of precipitation, while western Washington, western Oregon and north-central and northwest California received heavier amounts ranging from 2 to locally over 5 inches of precipitation. Recent precipitation helped to improve streamflow and precipitation deficits across much of Idaho, leading to widespread improvements in drought conditions. Severe also improved across much of western Montana as a result of recent precipitation events. Severe drought was also removed in northwest Oregon after recent heavy precipitation improved streamflow levels and lessened short- and long-term precipitation deficits. In north-central Montana, drought conditions worsened as weather stayed mostly dry, leading to larger short-term precipitation deficits and low streamflow levels.

Caribbean

Rainfall this week in Puerto Rico was generally below normal in central and eastern parts of the island, while a few spots near the west coast received at or above an inch above normal. Temperatures in eastern Puerto Rico were mostly 1-3 degrees above normal. Abnormal dryness continued in portions of southeast Puerto Rico.

The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of abnormal dryness or drought this week. Windswept Beach on St. John reported only 0.23 inches of rain along with CoCoRaHS observer reports of 0.59 and 0.32 inches elsewhere on the island. On St. Thomas, rainfall amounts reported by CoCoRaHS observers were about an inch or less. St. Croix observer reports were a mix between 0.14 and 0.62 inches of rainfall across the island averaging 0.45 inches.

Pacific

Alaska remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Weekly precipitation anomalies varied widely across the state, though generally, southeast and east-central Alaska had above-normal precipitation amounts, while central and west-central Alaska tended to be drier than normal. Temperatures soared to 5-15 degrees above normal in north-central and east-central Alaska, while above-normal temperatures were also common in southeast Alaska to a lesser degree. Colder-than-normal temperatures were found in much of southwest Alaska and in the Aleutian Islands, with some spots in these areas finishing the week 5-10 degrees below normal.

A few localized improvements occurred in windward areas of the Big Island and east Maui, where recent heavy rainfall amounts led to improved streamflow levels. Heavier rainfall was also reported in some windward parts of Molokai and Oahu this week. Far eastern portions of the Big Island were mostly drier than normal, and severe drought continued there. Temperature observations in Hawaii were mostly within 1.5 degrees of normal, with readings on the Big Island mostly on the warm side of this range.

At Pago Pago, at least 2.01 inches of rain have fallen this week, with three days missing from the analysis. At Toa Ridge, 2.25 inches of rain have fallen this week, and 0.12 inches of rainfall was reported at Siufaga Ridge. American Samoa remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week.

At Koror, 2.18 inches of rainfall was reported with two days missing, so Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Rainfall amounts recorded this week included up to 3.12 inches at Guam, 1.68 inches at Rota, 1.04 inches at Tinian and up to 2.48 inches at Saipan.

Short-term severe drought continued this week in Kapingamarangi. Another week of beneficial rainfall totaled 1.32 inches this week but was less than the required 2 inches of rain a week needed for water demand. Yellowing vegetation was reported on the island. Due to missing data, Fananu, Ulithi and Pingelap did not receive USDM designations. All other islands in the Federated States of Micronesia remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Yap reported 4.04 inches of rain with two days missing. Woleai reported 5.99 inches of rain, with one day also missing there. Chuuk reported 1.41 inches of rain with two days missing. Lukunor reported 2.37 inches of rain with five days missing. Nukuoro reported 0.41 inches of rain with two days missing. Pohnpei reported 2.03 inches of rain with two days missing. Kosrae reported 5.15 inches of rain with one day missing.

The Republic of the Marshall Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Kwajalein reported 5.79 inches of rainfall with one day missing. Ailinglapalap reported 2.37 inches of rain with two missing days. In Jaluit, 6.05 inches of rain was reported with one day missing. In Majuro, 3.61 inches of rain were reported with one day missing. In Mili, 2.59 inches of rainfall were reported. In Utirik and Wotje, rainfall amounts were lower with 0.24 inches and 1.03 inches respectively. In Utirik, given that a little under 8

inches of rain were reported in October and only 0.58 inches of rain being recorded for November, any developing further dryness there will be monitored.

Looking Ahead

From the evening of Nov. 12 through Nov. 17, the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center is forecasting heavy precipitation to fall across parts of the western U.S. Precipitation amounts from 3-5 inches (locally higher) may fall across large portions of California, especially the southwest coastal areas and portions of the Sierra Nevada. Heavy precipitation amounts from 2-5 inches (locally higher) are also anticipated in parts of northwest Washington and the Olympic Peninsula. Over 0.75 inches of precipitation is also forecast in southeast California, southern Nevada, portions of western and central Arizona and southwest Utah. A few other locales may receive an inch or more of precipitation, including the San Juan Mountains in southwest Colorado and parts of the northern Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana. Much drier weather is forecast across most of the rest of the Contiguous U.S. for this period, though some parts of New York and New England may receive over a half inch of precipitation.

For the period from Nov. 18-22, the NWS Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation across much of the Contiguous U.S., especially from the Southwest northeastward to the Lower Ohio River Valley. Drier-than-normal weather is slightly favored in northeast parts of Maine, while near-normal precipitation amounts are most likely in the Florida Peninsula. Near-normal temperatures are favored for New England, while elsewhere, colder-than-normal temperatures are likelier west of the Continental Divide, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored to the east of the Continental Divide. Forecaster confidence in warmer-than-normal weather is highest from the Gulf Coast north to the Lower Midwest and southern Great Plains, and near and west of Lake Superior. Above-normal precipitation and temperatures are favored in Hawaii. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is also favored, with the strongest chances being in the southwest part of the state. Above-normal temperatures are favored in most areas of Alaska, except for the far northwest, where near-normal temperatures are expected.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (11/11)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (11/10)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 29 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	2865653 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (11/6)

Heavy precipitation again doused the Pacific Northwest, especially across the northern half of the Cascades and along the Washington and northern Oregon Coast. Between 6 and 10 inches of precipitation fell on most of northwesternmost Washington, and 6 to 8 inches fell on most of the northern Washington Cascades and a few areas near the Washington/Oregon border and along the northwestern Oregon Coast. From central Oregon northward, over 3 inches fell on the Cascades and coastal areas while 1.5 to 3.0 inches fell on other locations there from the Cascade Foothills to the Pacific Ocean. Farther east, locally heavy precipitation (1 to locally approaching 4 inches) was observed in northwestern Montana and northern Idaho. Other locations from the Great Plains westward to the Pacific Ocean were much drier, with most locations recording no measurable precipitation. Across the eastern half of the country, moderate to heavy precipitation (1 to locally 4 inches) fell on most of the Northeast, with the heaviest amounts falling on northern New York and in a swath from southwestern New England and the New York City area northward through northeastern New York and adjacent Vermont. Areas around the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia also recorded heavy precipitation (2 to 4 inches) while amounts ranged from 1 to 3 inches in most of central and eastern Maine, New Jersey, central and eastern Pennsylvania, parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, and across Kentucky, most of Tennessee, and the adjacent Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. The west side of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley recorded generally 0.5 to locally 2.0 inches of precipitation, similar to totals reported across the upper Southeast, the central Carolinas, the central Appalachians, and the Upper Ohio Valley. In contrast, little or no precipitation was also observed across most of the Lower Mississippi Valley, near the central and eastern Gulf Coast, over the South Atlantic region from South Carolina through southern Florida, and through the Great Lakes region and adjacent portions of the Midwest.

These conditions led to broad areas of improvement across the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic region, most of the Carolinas, the central and southern Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and adjacent Lower Mississippi Valley, a few parts of the central and northern Rockies and southern California, and portions of the Pacific Northwest, where the heavy precipitation did not improve moisture shortages as much as might be expected due to quickly-increasing normal at this time of year. Meanwhile, after the prior week’s beneficial precipitation, low precipitation totals this past week allowed for broad areas of intensification or re-intensification of dryness and drought over most of Texas, southern Oklahoma, the northern Great Lakes, parts of the northern Great Plains, portions of the central High Plains, north-central Montana, and central Maui. A few areas of deterioration were also introduced from southern South Carolina through southern Florida and through parts of the Virginia Piedmont.

Northeast

With moderate to heavy precipitation widespread across most of the Northeast Region, many areas saw improvement on the Drought Monitor map. Still, dryness and drought continued to stretch across an historically unusual amount of the Region. Some degree of dryness or drought (D0+) covered 85.5 percent of the Region, down from 93.4 percent the prior week and the lowest since mid-September (81.1 percent). Drought conditions (D1+) contracted to cover 54.5 percent of the Region, down from 65.3 percent the prior week. And severe to exceptional drought (D2+) coverage dropped to 23.0 percent from 34.3 percent the prior week, also the lowest since mid-September (22.5 percent).

Southeast

Moderate to heavy rain (0.5 to locally over 3 inches) fell from Virginia southward through the central Carolinas, across the Appalachians, and over northern portions of Alabama. From central sections of the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama southward through Florida, only a few tenths of an inch fell, if any, with most locations recording no measurable precipitation. Predictably, this resulted in substantial areas of improvement over significant portions of Virginia and North Carolina while areas farther south, especially across southern Georgia and Florida saw conditions persist or worsen. With D3 coverage increasing to cover much of southern Georgia, that state’s coverage of extreme or exceptional drought (D3-D4) jumped to 12.7 percent, the highest in over 6 years (16.1 percent in mid-October 2019). For the Region as a whole, however, improvement was noted in more areas than deterioration despite most of it occurring in two states (Virginia and North Carolina). Some degree of dryness (D0+) reached across 75.5 percent of the Region, down from 81.7 percent the prior week. Drought coverage (D1+) dropped from 54.6 to 48.9 percent – the first time in 3 weeks that drought coverage dropped below 50 percent.

South

Moderate to heavy rain (1 to 3 inches) doused Tennessee, portions of Arkansas, and some adjacent areas last week. Dryness and drought over western Tennessee and much of Arkansas eased a bit as a result. Most other locations across Tennessee, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, and northern Mississippi reported several tenths of an inch of rain, and similar totals fell on isolated areas across southern Mississippi, Louisiana, and coastal Texas. The remainder of the Region, including most of Texas and Oklahoma, observed no measurable rain. After beneficial precipitation the prior week, the precipitation-free week allowed dryness and drought to re-intensify or expand over large parts of Texas and southern Oklahoma. After drought coverage (D1+) declined to about one-third of the state the prior week, coverage increased to over 45 percent this past week, which is the greatest extent since early May. Areas of late-season crop stress and some die-off has been reported across Oklahoma and Texas over the past few weeks.

Midwest

Moderate to locally heavy rain (1.5 to 3.0 inches) doused much of Kentucky and northeastern Ohio, but amounts were considerably lower at most locations. Amounts of an inch or a little more fell near the Ohio River and across central Ohio while a few tenths to a little more than an inch was observed over southern sections of Illinois and Indiana, in a swath from Missouri northward through interior Minnesota, and in the northern Great Lakes region. Little or no precipitation was observed over the remainder of the Great Lakes region, eastern Minnesota, central and northern sections of Indiana and Illinois, and northwestern Ohio. Predictably, this precipitation pattern resulted in continued improvement near the Ohio River and across most of Ohio while the dry week engendered persistence or intensification across the northern and central tier of the Region. In particular, increasing 60- and 90-day precipitation deficits prompted significant expansion of moderate drought (D1) across the south-central Upper Peninsula of Michigan, northern Wisconsin, and east-central Minnesota. As a result, even though coverage by some degree of dryness or drought (D0+) dropped from 68.8 to 65.1 percent last week, drought coverage (D1+) actually ticked up slightly from 33.4 to 34.8 percent.

High Plains

The High Plains Region is currently the Region least-affected by dryness and drought even though coverage in sum increased slightly this past week when most of the region reported a few tenths of an inch of precipitation at best. Measurable totals were restricted to eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. The dry week induced a few areas of deterioration, but even so, less than 39 percent of the Region is experiencing some degree of dryness (D0+), and only 17.8 percent is enduring drought (D1+). Precipitation deficits on most time frames crept upward Region-wide, but areas of deterioration were relatively limited given the relatively low natural and human water demand this time of year.

West

Several inches of precipitation pelted central and northern sections of the Cascades and coastal Pacific Northwest, and 1 to 3 inch totals were common across northwestern Montana and northern Idaho, as well as the lower elevations in the Pacific Northwest between the coast and the Cascades. Several tenths of an inch of precipitation were reported farther south along the West Coast and in the lower elevations of the northern Intermountain West, but most of the West Region received no measurable precipitation for the week. This prompted areas of intensification in north-central Montana and southeastern New Mexico while the heavy precipitation led to areas of improvement in the Pacific Northwest. But given how early it is in the wet season and that normals are ramping upward fairly quickly there, improvement in dryness and drought was not as widespread as one might assume. Drought coverage (D1+) in Washington was unchanged from the prior week at 94.8 percent, and the extent of the more intense drought classifications (D2-D4) declined only slightly from 65.1 to 63.9 percent. There was even less change in Oregon, although dryness there is not as widespread as in Washington. Montana reported intensification in north-central parts of the state, but a little improvement farther west, as was the case in the fringes of the D3 and D4 areas in Idaho. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, flows along numerous rivers in the West remain very low. On the Missouri River at Great Falls, MT, in early November, streamflow was observed at 3,620 cubic feet per second, well below the mean for the date since the turn of the century (4,934 cubic feet per second, ranging from 3,880 in 2021 up to 6,470 in 2010). On the Firehole River, near West Yellowstone, MT, streamflow was 212 cubic feet per second in early November, below the 2002-2024 mean of 272 for similar dates, which ranged from 236 in 2022 to 318 in 2008. These amounts are up slightly since late summer. In late August, a field measurement of 193 cubic feet per second was bested only by 192 in early August 2016.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico abnormal dryness (D0) remained unchanged from last week after some spotty light to moderate rain.

The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Windswept Beach on St. John reported 0.8 inches of rain. On St. Thomas, rainfall amounts reported by CoCoRaHs observers were about a half inch or less. Higher rainfall amounts were reported by observers on St. Croix, with many observers reporting over 1 inch of rain.

Pacific

In Alaska no dryness or drought is currently present.

Precipitation was nondescript across the island chain last week, keeping significant moisture shortages intact over large parts of the state. Dryness and drought is unchanged across most of the state, but some deterioration was introduced in parts of central and northern Maui. Mahi Pono - an agricultural company with a large planting area in central Maui west of Upcountry – has been prohibited from using surface water for its agricultural operations since late August, relying on groundwater pumping instead. Kahalui in north-central Maui has recorded only 0.18 inch of rain since the start of September, compared to a normal just under 1.5 inches. Since the start of the year, 6.75 inches of rain fell on Kahului, just 57 percent of the normal (11.8 inches). Honopou Stream near Huelo, Maui has measured streamflow among the lowest 5 percent on record for half of the days so far this year. For these reasons, extreme drought (D3) was introduced across part of central Maui while D2 expanded into northern Maui to the northeast of Upcountry Maui. Farther east, on the Big Island, unusually low rainfall totals have persisted for many months. Since September 1, Hilo reported 11.58 inches of rain, which is 9.15 inches below normal; and since January 1, the 46.96 inches of rain reported is less than half of normal (95.72”). Honolulu also reports less than half of normal rainfall since the start of September. Lihue has been wetter than normal since September 1, but year-to-date numbers remain well below normal (19.01 inches, compared to a normal of 28.04 inches). Most locations across the island chain are reporting below-normal to much below-normal streamflows.

At Pago Pago, at least 2.79 inches of rain have fallen this week, with four days missing from the analysis. At Toa Ridge, 2.21 inches of rain have fallen this week, while no rainfall data have been available recently from Siufaga Ridge. American Samoa remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week.

Data were not available at Palau this week, so no USDM depiction was made there.

The Mariana Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Rainfall amounts recorded this week included 1.59 inches at Guam, 2.6 inches at Rota, 1.68 inches at Tinian and 1.84 inches at Saipan.

Short-term severe drought continued this week in Kapingamarangi. Rainfall totaled 2.23 inches this week, which broke a long run of consecutive weeks with less than 2 inches of rain. Yellowing vegetation was reported on the island. Due to missing data, Fananu, Ulithi and Pingelap did not receive USDM designations. All other islands in the Federated States of Micronesia remained free of drought or abnormal dryness. Yap reported 2.52 inches of rain with four days missing. Woleai reported 4.7 inches of rain, with four days also missing there. Chuuk reported 4.77 inches of rain with one day missing. Lukunor reported 3.97 inches of rain with two days missing. Nukuoro reported 3.48 inches of rain with one day missing. Pohnpei reported 3.18 inches of rain with one day missing. Kosrae reported 4.75 inches of rain.

The Republic of the Marshall Islands remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. Kwajalein reported 5.79 inches of rainfall with one day missing. Ailinglapalap reported 2.65 inches of rain with two missing days. In Jaluit, 1.51 inches of rain were reported, following over 7 inches last week. In Majuro, 2.35 inches of rain were reported. In Utirik, Wotje and Mili, rainfall amounts were lower to start November, though recent rainfall otherwise was mostly sufficient, so no abnormal dryness has developed. In Utirik, given that a little under 8 inches of rain were reported in October, any developing further dryness there will be monitored.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5 days (through November 10), the Pacific Northwest is expected to remain relatively wet. Between 3 and 6 inches are anticipated in parts of the Washington and northern Oregon Cascades and far northwestern Washington. Generally 2 to 3 inches are forecast through the rest of the central and northern Cascades, most of coastal Washington, and coastal areas in northwestern Oregon and northwestern California. Elsewhere, moderate to locally heavy precipitation (1 to 2 inches) is anticipated in the remaining areas from northern California to the Canadian Border. Over much of the northern Rockies, in southern Michigan, to the lee of Lake Erie, across northern New York, and over parts of New England. Totals ranging from a few tenths of an inch to about an inch are anticipated across the northern Intermountain West, higher elevations of western Wyoming, isolated parts of the northern Great Plains, portions of the Midwest, the east half of the Great Lakes, most of the Appalachians, the middle and upper Ohio Valley, the central Gulf Coast states, much of the Northeast, and southeastern Florida. Other locations are expected to receive a few tenths of an inch at best, with little or none anticipated in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain, most of interior Florida, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and from the central and southern Great Plains westward into California. Temperatures are forecast to average warmer than normal in the West and cooler than normal in the East. A shot of cold air – the coldest of the season so far – should push through the East early next week. It will not linger for long, but on one or two nights temperatures could approach freezing as far south as the central Gulf Coast, and readings in the 50’s deg. F may reach into the southern Florida Peninsula. For the 5 days overall, high temperatures are expected to average 5 to 8 deg. F below normal from the Great Lakes and Midwest southeastward into northern Florida. In contrast, daily highs from the High Plains to the Pacific Coast should average 5 to 12 deg. F above normal, with the largest departures expected in parts of the Great Basin, near the California/Oregon border, and over the northernmost Rockies.

The 6- to 10-day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for November 11-15 favors subnormal precipitation for most areas from the Great Plains to the Atlantic Coast, except along the northern tier of the region. Odds for unusual dryness exceed 50 percent from the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys eastward through the South Atlantic States outside southern Florida. Abnormally wet weather is favored from the High Plains to the Pacific Coast, with chances for unusually heavy precipitation exceeding 60 percent across central and southwestern California. Wet weather is also somewhat favored through Hawaii and over most of Alaska. Temperatures are expected to average below normal in the East from the lower Great Lakes, Middle Ohio Valley, and central Gulf Coast eastward to the Atlantic Coast. The likelihood for subnormal temperatures exceeds 70 percent from northern Florida northward along the Coastal Plain into southern New England. From roughly the Mississippi River to the Pacific Coast, warmer than normal weather is favored, with odds topping 70 percent across a broad area covering most of the central and southern Rockies and High Plains. Warm weather is also expected over most of Alaska and across Hawaii.