This Week's Drought Summary (11/20)

Dry weather covered most of the central and eastern U.S. this week, with a few localized areas of heavier precipitation falling in the Northeast and parts of eastern South Dakota. In the West, heavy rain and snow was widespread, especially in parts of southern Nevada, southern and coastal California, the Sierra Nevada, the Pacific Northwest and northwest Montana. Temperatures west of the Mississippi River were mostly warmer than normal, especially in Montana and Wyoming, where temperatures of 12 or more degrees above normal were common. East of the Mississippi River, near- or below-normal temperatures were widespread, especially in southern Georgia and Florida, where temperatures were 6-12 degrees colder than normal. Given the wetter weather recently, improvements continued in parts of the Northeast, where streamflow and soil moisture continued to recover and precipitation deficits lessened. Improvements were also widespread in California and Washington, where recent precipitation has cut into or erased precipitation deficits and boosted soil moisture and streamflow. Degradations were common in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, where short-term precipitation deficits grew. Widespread degradation also occurred in parts of Nebraska, central and northeast Montana and the western Great Lakes area, as primarily short-term dryness intensified in each of these areas. Recent pockets of drier- or wetter-than-normal weather led to a few small changes in areas of abnormal dryness in Puerto Rico. Wetter weather in the windward sides of Hawaii led to local improvements on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island, where streamflows have responded well to increased precipitation.

Northeast

Precipitation continued to fall this week in the Northeast, leading to localized improvements in drought and abnormal dryness. The heaviest precipitation fell in central New York, where some areas received over 2 inches of precipitation. At least a half inch of precipitation fell across large sections of New York, New England and northern Pennsylvania. A small area near Allentown, Pennsylvania, degraded to moderate drought where short-term precipitation deficits increased and soil moisture and streamflow dropped. Widespread improvements occurred in northern New England, central, northern and western New York and a few parts of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania. In these areas, recent precipitation has improved streamflow and soil moisture and cut into precipitation deficits. However, soil moisture or precipitation deficits or both are still occurring in many areas, so more precipitation is needed across the region. Temperatures this week were mostly near normal or below normal, with much of northern Pennsylvania and most of New York finishing the week 3-6 degrees colder than normal.

Southeast

This week’s weather in the Southeast was almost entirely dry, which worsened drought or abnormal dryness in many locations. Colder-than-normal weather across the region, especially temperatures 6-12 degrees below normal in southern Georgia and Florida, plus the lower sun angle, kept this week’s evaporative demand lower. In southern Georgia and portions of the Florida Panhandle, extreme drought expanded, and exceptional drought developed where large short-term precipitation deficits continued, streamflow remained low and soil moisture levels continued to drop. Short-term precipitation deficits also led to worsening conditions in central and western North Carolina and south-central Virginia. In the Florida Peninsula, short-term precipitation deficits and low water levels, low streamflows and locally poor soil moisture led to expansion of moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness.

South

Dry weather occurred across nearly the entire South region this week, which led to widespread degradations in conditions in some states. Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in parts of Texas and Oklahoma and some locales in Arkansas, while near- or below-normal temperatures were more common elsewhere. In the Texas Panhandle and southwest parts of the Lone Star State, temperatures of at least 9 degrees above normal were common. South of Oklahoma City, extreme drought developed where ponds dried up amid large short-term precipitation deficits and above-normal evaporative demand. Degradations occurred across large parts of southern Oklahoma where short-term precipitation deficits continued amid above-normal temperatures. A mix of short- and long-term precipitation deficits and warm temperatures led to degradations in southern Texas, while conditions also degraded in parts of north Texas and the Texas Panhandle during recent dry and warm weather. Short-term precipitation deficits also grew in much of northeast Texas, Louisiana, southwest Arkansas and southern Mississippi, leading to degrading conditions. Streamflow and soil moisture levels also were low in some areas that worsened this week.

Midwest

This week, scattered precipitation fell in parts of central and eastern Missouri, Illinois, southern Indiana, northern and eastern Iowa and the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Otherwise, primarily dry weather occurred. In Decatur, Illinois, stage one water restrictions began, and severe and extreme drought expanded in the area surrounding Champaign-Urbana as shortages in soil moisture and precipitation intensified again. From northeast Iowa into the western Great Lakes area, moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness developed or expanded. Short-term precipitation deficits and soil moisture deficits were especially intense in the Wisconsin Northwoods, where severe drought developed and moderate drought expanded. Streamflow and soil moisture continued to struggle amid growing precipitation deficits in parts of Missouri, where abnormal dryness and moderate and severe drought locally expanded. Severe drought now covers the entire Kansas City area, where soil moisture levels continue to be low amid a very dry late summer and autumn. Warmer-than-normal temperatures occurred in the western reaches of the Midwest (primarily along and west of the Mississippi River), while near- or below-normal temperatures were more common in Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

High Plains

Primarily dry and warmer-than-normal weather occurred in the High Plains region this week, with the exceptions of east-central South Dakota and some high-elevation areas of Colorado and Wyoming. Temperatures in Wyoming and parts of eastern Colorado were 12 or more degrees above normal this week, while eastern parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas were mostly 3-9 degrees warmer than normal. Short-term precipitation deficits and decreasing soil moisture in some areas led to expansions and development of abnormal dryness and moderate drought in parts of eastern and central Nebraska. In western Nebraska, abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded under similar conditions, while severe drought also developed where more substantial longer-term precipitation deficits were taking place. In and near the Kansas City area, moderate and severe drought locally expanded where soil moisture levels decreased and short-term precipitation shortfalls grew. Abnormal dryness expanded across the southeast Colorado plains where short-term precipitation deficits grew, while moderate drought filled in in northwest Colorado where short-term dryness aligned with long-term precipitation deficits.

West

Widespread heavy precipitation fell this week in California, southern Nevada, the Pacific Northwest and northern Idaho and northwest Montana. Locally over 5 inches of precipitation fell in northwest Washington, spots in northwest Montana and northern Idaho, and across scattered parts of California, especially in some coastal regions and the Sierra Nevada. Soil moisture levels increased across California amid the heavy precipitation. Precipitation deficits lessened in many areas or were entirely removed, leading to widespread 1-category improvements in California and localized 2-category improvements near Los Angeles. As the impact of this precipitation on the water cycle in California and Nevada is evaluated in the coming weeks, further improvements may occur. Conditions also improved after recent precipitation cut into precipitation deficits and locally improved soil moisture, groundwater and streamflow in northwest Washington, central and eastern Washington, northern Idaho and northwest Montana, southwest Arizona, and southwest Utah and along a portion of the Utah-Nevada border. Despite the widespread precipitation, weekly temperature anomalies were warm across the entire West this week. Compared to normal, Montana and Idaho were generally the warmest, with parts of Montana and southern Idaho finishing the week 12 degrees or more warmer than normal. In the plains of central and northeast Montana, moderate and severe drought and abnormal dryness quickly worsened amid warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier weather. In these areas, streamflow locally decreased amid growing soil moisture and short-term precipitation deficits.

Caribbean

Recent rainfall in parts of southeast Puerto Rico lessened rain deficits and improved well levels, leading to localized improvement to abnormal dryness. In north-central Puerto Rico, drier weather this week continued below-normal rainfall over the last month. In turn, streamflows have decreased and abnormal dryness developed. Temperatures in Puerto Rico this week were mostly a degree or two warmer than normal.

This week, St. Thomas, St. Croix, and St. John experienced modest rainfall driven primarily by trade‑wind showers rather than organized storms. The depth to water level from the land surface also showed an increasing trend, showing relatively drier conditions across the islands.

On St. Croix, most CoCoRaHS stations reported less than one inch of rainfall for the week. The highest recorded rainfall was at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted, 1.3 ENE), which received 0.64 inches. Next, VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted, 1.7 ESE) measured 0.45 inches, followed by VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted, 1.9 NE) with 0.24 inches. VI-SC-30 (Christiansted, 1.7 SW) recorded 0.12 inches, while VI-SC-10 (Christiansted, 1.6 E) observed 0.14 inches. Finally, VI-SC-23 (Christiansted, 6.5W) reported the least rainfall at 0.15 inches. This week, the 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for East Hill is -1.26, indicating drier-than-normal conditions. According to the USGS, the depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well in St. Croix, USVI, has increased from 18.04 feet on October 19 to 18.36 feet on November 18. Additionally, compared to the same date last year (November 18, 2024), when the water level was 17.39 feet, this week's reading shows an increase. This trend indicates that St. Croix is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

This week, St. John experienced light rainfall across the island. Windswept Beach (VI-SJ-3) recorded 0.57 inches of rain, while Cruz Bay (VI-SJ-5, 1.6 E) saw 0.27 inches. The depth to the water level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well in St. John, USVI, has increased from 7.49 feet on October 19 to 9.0 feet on November 18. However, this depth is still relatively lower than a month ago, indicating that St. John remains drought-free this week.

St. Thomas also received light rainfall throughout the island. The rain gauge at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 0.56 inches of rain, whereas VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N) recorded 0.38 inches of rain. The depth to the water level below the land surface at the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas, USVI, has increased from 2.08 feet on October 19 to 4.72 feet as of November 18 (this week). Despite this increase, St. Thomas remains drought-free this week due to a decrease in the depth to the water level from the land surface over the past few months.

Pacific

Weather across most of Alaska, excluding the southeast, was drier than normal this week. Temperatures in the south-central, east-central and central parts of Alaska were colder than normal, with some locations having temperatures 6-12 degrees below normal for the week. Temperatures were near or above normal in the southeast, where some locations finished the week 3-9 degrees above normal. Temperatures 3-9 degrees above normal also occurred in the North Slope area. Despite the drier weather in parts of Alaska this week, abnormal dryness has not developed.

Wetter-than-normal weather occurred recently in windward slopes of parts of Hawaii, leading to improvements in areas of increased streamflow and lessened precipitation deficits, especially in northeast parts of the Big Island, northern East Maui and part of the north coast of Oahu. Extreme drought remained in parts of the Big Island and Maui, while severe drought also remained in parts of Molokai and Oahu. Temperature across the state were mostly within 1.5 degrees of normal.

The Marshall Islands have been impacted by a north-south displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)/monsoon trough, bringing repeated showers and heavy rain. Most areas are free from drought, while some islands reported significant rainfall: Mili received 5.74 inches, Wotje 3.85 inches, and Majuro 3.22 inches. Moderate rain was recorded in Ailinglapalap (1.18 inches) and Jaluit (1.17 inches), while Utirik had only 0.08 inches. No data is available for Kwajalein for analysis this week.

The FSM region experienced an active ITCZ/monsoon trough, resulting in persistent showers along windward coasts and heavier rainfall in mountainous areas. Thus, Kosrae received 6.27 inches of rain, Woleai received 3.92 inches, and Pohnpei recorded 3.79 inches. Additionally, Chuuk Lagoon, Nukuoro, and Yap received 2.15, 1.13, 1.93, and 1.11 inches of rain, respectively, keeping these islands drought-free. Lukunor had 0.9 inches of rain and remains free of drought due to earlier wetter conditions. Kapingamarangi, however, recorded only 1.26 inches this week after receiving 5.1 inches in one day last week, and remains in severe drought conditions. There is no data for Pingelap this week.

American Samoa experienced several days of moderate to heavy rainfall this week, attributed to a moist trade-wind pattern, low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ, tropical waves, and orographic uplift in mountainous regions. For instance, Pago Pago recorded 2.55 inches of rain, while Siufaga Ridge and Toa Ridge received 1.7 inches and 1.07 inches of rain, respectively. As a result, American Samoa is currently experiencing drought-free conditions.

This week, Palau experienced frequent showers and localized heavy rain due to its location near the western edge of an active convective band associated with the monsoon trough and tropical waves. Koror reported 2.47 inches of rainfall, while the Weather Service Office in Airai (WSO Palau) recorded 3.11 inches. As a result, the island remains free of drought conditions.

The Marianas experienced mainly light trade-wind showers this week, with a few periods of convective activity, followed by a decrease in rainfall later in the week. According to the weekly rainfall report, Guam received 0.74 inches, Tinian 0.59 inches, Saipan 0.31 inches, and Rota 0.3 inches. Although the islands received less than 1 inch of rain, they remain free of drought due to the wet conditions from previous weeks.

Looking Ahead

From the evening of Nov. 19 through Nov. 24, the National Weather Service Weather (NWS) Prediction Center is forecasting a large area to receive near or over 1 inch of precipitation from southern Ohio eastward to northeast Colorado and south to northwest Louisiana and much of Oklahoma and Texas (excluding the southwest). Precipitation amounts of at least 0.75 inches are also forecast in parts of southern California, southern Arizona and southeast two-thirds of New Mexico. Heavy precipitation, locally exceeding 3 inches, is forecast in parts of western Washington. Mostly dry weather is forecast across the northern Great Plains and from the Upper Midwest eastward to most of New York and northern New England. Dry weather is also likely to continue in much of the Southeast, especially in drought-stricken areas of southeast Louisiana, southern Georgia and Florida.

For Nov. 25-29, the NWS Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation across parts of the northern, central and eastern U.S. The highest confidence areas for above-normal precipitation include the northern Great Plains and the Southeast. Drier-than-normal weather is favored in the Southwest U.S., especially in coastal California, southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico and southwest Texas. The forecast favors colder-than-normal temperatures from northern Washington east to Lake Superior and southward through the central Great Plains. In the West, warmer-than-normal temperatures are likelier from central Oregon southward along the Pacific Coast and eastward to near the Continental Divide. The forecast favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in areas from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, with the highest confidence for warmth centered over the Southeast.

In Hawaii, above-normal temperatures and precipitation are favored across the state. In Alaska, the forecast favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in central and western parts of the state, while southeast Alaska is more likely to be colder than normal. Above-normal precipitation is favored for the southwest part of Alaska, while the forecast leans towards below-normal precipitation in northern and southeast Alaska.