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— The 60-day clock on U.S. operations in Iran is expiring, with GOP support showing early signs of strain.
— Markets are bracing for potential policy shifts as Kevin Warsh’s nomination advances ahead of the May 15 leadership change at the Federal Reserve.
— U.S. fuel costs are beginning to climb more sharply as global supply disruptions tighten markets ahead of peak summer demand. |
Agriculture— Farm bill: The House voted to advance the farm bill April 30, marking the furthest progress on the legislation since 2018. The vote came after a long night of negotiations over year-round sale of E15, the ethanol gasoline blend.
A farm bill amendment that would approve year-round sales of the biofuel was separated from the farm bill, which caused a revolt among its GOP backers who threatened the timing of the Thursday vote. The caucus ultimately struck a deal with House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring the legislation to the floor in mid-May.
The E15 legislation will have to be formally divorced from the farm bill in a new rule after May recess.
The farm bill will now head to the Senate, where Agriculture Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) is expected to rework some controversial provisions that could weaken the package’s chances in the upper chamber.
— Fertilizer crisis: As the Iran war continues, so does the fertilizer price crisis that has shocked the global agricultural supply chain. The Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which a third of the world’s fertilizer supply flows, has been throttled by Iran and continues to be blockaded, with an erratic trickle of shipping passing through.
Industry experts say it will take months for the strait to return to normal traffic, because even after the war’s conclusion, mines will still need to be cleared. Farmers and market experts say that the window for supply reaching North America for spring planting season has passed. They now worry that if the conflict stretches on, fall purchases for spring 2027 planting will be impacted.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has repeatedly said that she speaks with fertilizer executives and other administration officials daily to discuss potential ameliorations to the crisis
— MAHA-MAGA break: The Make America Healthy Again movement, part of the coalition that elected President Trump in 2024, rallied in front of the Supreme Court building on April 27 before the high court heard arguments in Monsanto v. Durnell, a lawsuit against Monsanto, which is owned by Bayer, the maker of the herbicide Roundup.
Bayer argued that federal law supersedes state law when it comes to pesticide labeling. A forthcoming ruling in the company’s favor would shield Bayer against future litigation related to the lack of cancer warnings on its products.
MAHA leaders who spoke at the event warned that the Trump administration’s repeated siding with Bayer in the case could lead to the base’s disloyalty to the GOP in midterms. — Rachel Shin |
Trade— U.S.-China summit: President Trump will travel to Beijing on May 14 -15 for his first meeting in nearly a decade with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The aim is to build on a November trade agreement between the two countries that lowered trade tensions — including restarting the flow of critical minerals from China and Chinese purchases of U.S. crops.
The aim is to build on a November trade agreement between the two countries that lowered trade tensions — including restarting the flow of critical minerals from China and Chinese purchases of U.S. crops.
The two leaders are likely to extend that detente at the Beijing summit; the Trump administration has lowered expectations for any major breakthroughs on its broader goals of fundamentally rebalancing trade between the two economic powers.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified in Congress in late April that he expected new Chinese purchases of American ag products to be one of the major “deliverables” from the meeting. Farmers are also pressing Trump to convince Xi to remove a 10 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans.
Ag groups, however, also warned USTR last week that its trade investigation into forced labor in China and other countries — a probe that could lead to future tariff increases — risked undermining Beijing’s renewed purchasing commitments.
USTR launched the forced labor investigations and another probe into excess manufacturing capacity in dozens of countries earlier this spring, as it lays the groundwork to reimpose Trump tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down in February. — Emily Cadei, Ari Hawkins |
Financial Services— Warsh-Fed: The Senate is expected to vote on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to head the Federal Reserve before current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15. Warsh would take over the central bank at a time of significant uncertainty for the economy, with the war in Iran sending oil prices soaring and the labor market showing little growth. He’ll also have to contend with Trump’s relentless pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. –Jasper Goodman
— Crypto-Market: Senate Banking Committee Republicans are targeting May to advance major crypto market structure legislation. Lawmakers are close to resolving a lobbying clash over whether issuers of stablecoin — crypto tokens linked to the dollar — can offer customers yield, a move that banks strongly oppose. But they still need to resolve other issues, including concerns from law enforcement groups over financial licensing exemptions in the bill. The House Financial Services Committee has scheduled a markup on a bill to modernize the Bank Secrecy Act, bank-fintech collaborations and equity market transparency.
— Iran-Fallout: The war’s initial impact on the U.S. economy hasn’t been as severe as many had feared. While inflation surged in March, that was largely due to a spike in gas prices that could quickly recede if global supplies of oil and gas rebound. But the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and with businesses feeling pressure from rising energy costs, consumer prices could start to climb even higher. We’ll know more when the May 8 jobs report is released, and the consumer price index comes out on May 12.
— HUD-Markup: The House is slated to take up the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s budget, with a subcommittee markup on May 21. Lawmakers will have to decide whether to move forward with significant spending cuts proposed by the White House. The presidential budget suggested slashing programs — like HUD’s Fair Housing Initiatives Program grants to local nonprofits — that the White House disparaged as left-wing. Congress rejected similar proposals to limit federal housing assistance in the previous appropriations cycle.
— Prediction-Markets: Insider trading on the prediction markets has been a chief concern in Washington, heightened last month when a U.S. soldier was charged with allegedly trading on classified information through Polymarket. Be on the watch for new signs that the Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission will step up enforcement. — Cassandra Dumay, Jasper Goodman, Declan Harty, Katherine Hapgood, Sam Sutton |
Tax— More reconciliation? It may be an election year, but lawmakers are weighing two potential paths for enacting more tax measures in the coming months.
— Partisan track: Republican leaders have basically frozen out everything besides immigration enforcement funding in the GOP-only fiscal plan they’re currently struggling to pass.
With that in mind, GOP leaders are signaling interest in pursuing a third budget reconciliation bill later this Congress, in part to assuage those who would want tax provisions to be in the mix for the current immigration vehicle.
That path faces significant hurdles. Under budget rules, the GOP could only pass such a measure until October — just weeks before the midterms.
Lawmakers have a wide array of tax provisions they’d like to prioritize, including competing demands for both tax relief and revenue-raising measures — which could make it challenging to assemble a third Reconciliation package.
— Bipartisan track: Both Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo(R-Idaho) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) had said that they wanted to focus on bipartisan priorities for 2026.
And even with the talk of more reconciliation, lawmakers do seem to be trying to position themselves for a potential year-end tax package filled with ideas that could be supported by both parties.
The House recently passed seven separate targeted tax measures with little to no opposition, which covered a variety of tax administration issues, expanded tax breaks for teachers and exempted damages from sexual assault settlements from federal income taxes.
Smith also said this week that he wants to proceed on a cryptocurrency tax measure that is almost finished — but only if it picks up Democratic support.
— Trump and the IRS: A federal judge has scheduled a May 27 hearing to consider whether President Trump can proceed with a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS, raising unusual legal and conflict-of-interest questions about a sitting president suing the agency he oversees. — Bernie Becker |
Employment and Immigration— Funding outlook: Congressional appropriators are due to lay out their vision for funding the agencies tasked with policing workplaces across the country.
The White House proposed significant cuts to both the Department of Labor and National Labor Relations Board, while sparing the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, which has undergone a makeover in the past year to align with Trump administration policy views.
House lawmakers have proposed a double-digit percentage reduction to the EEOC — an ominous sign for the other agencies. That said, Republicans have previously pursued major cutbacks only to see them scaled back in the Senate.
— Upcoming hearings: Appropriations committees in both chambers are in the midst of hearings with agency leaders tied to the budget debate, but Labor, the NLRB and the EEOC have yet to have their time on the hot seat.
DOL’s hearing is expected to be the most fraught of the three, given Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s recent resignation in the face of an investigation of alleged wrongdoing by the agency’s inspector general.
Chavez-DeRemer’s former deputy, Keith Sonderling, has taken over as acting secretary. He is likely to face questions from lawmakers about what was happening inside the department under his predecessor’s watch.
— Appropriations dynamics: The EEOC is funded through the Commerce-Justice-Science bill while the other two are grouped in a different package that includes the Departments of Education and Health and Human Services. That bill is typically among the most contentious, often delayed by partisan policy disputes.
The fiscal year runs through the end of September, though Congress frequently relies on short-term funding measures to keep the government operating while negotiations — Greg Mott |
Education— Neg reg, part two: The Education Department will soon launch the second phase of its negotiated rulemaking to overhaul the college oversight system. But many sticking points remain and it’s uncertain whether the panel will be able to reach consensus .
Accreditors serve as gatekeepers for the federal student loan program. If a school is not approved by a federally recognized accreditor, it cannot accept federal student loans or Pell Grants, which help low-income students pay for college. The Trump administration has sought to reshape the accreditation field, arguing it is too left-leaning and restrictive.
A gulf of disagreement remains between negotiators and the department — and many are predicting a contentious second week of negotiations. The agency’s more than 150-page proposed regulation did not undergo major changes during the April session, but the panel is expected to go through the measure in detail at this month’s session.
Some of the toughest barriers to reaching consensus include the department’s proposal to ease the transfer of credits between schools, requirements related to viewpoint diversity on campus, and a policy that could allow the agency to continue giving a school access to federal student loans even if its accreditor takes negative action against the institution. Some negotiators believe these proposals run afoul of federal higher education law.
Top agency officials have already said they’re moving forward with the plan whether the higher education community likes it or not. If the panel fails to reach consensus, the department gains full authority to write the regulation as it sees fit. That means representatives for accreditors, schools and others on the panel will have to make a decision: approve the current proposal or potentially be stuck with an unfavorable policy with none of their input. — Bianca Quilantan |
Defense— Iran war milestone: The U.S. military campaign in Iran is hitting a a key legal and political inflection point that could test GOP lawmaker support for President Donald Trump's war agenda and put increased pressure on the administration to detail an endgame.
Friday marks 60 days since Trump notified Congress of the U.S. attacks on Iran. That is the legal deadline for military operations to shut down unless Congress authorizes it, although the White House can unilaterally extend that deadline for another 30 days.
While Democratic-led efforts to rein in Trump have fallen flat since the war began in February, the 60-day deadline could prove more impactful. Several Republicans have indicated they're uneasy supporting the war past that point. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and others are drafting an authorization for continued military operations against Iran.
GOP concerns — and the potential that Republicans could turn on the administration as higher fuel prices and other economic fallout weigh on their midterm prospects — could lead administration officials to make a renewed case for the conflict. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. was on a path to victory this week, although did not detail how that would play out. Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) is planning a public hearing as early as May.
— Budget push: Budget and military posture hearings kick into high gear this month as Pentagon officials crisscross Capitol Hill to make the case for the administration's record breaking $1.5 trillion proposal.
Hegseth and Joint Chiefs chair Gen. Dan Caine testified about the budget at the House and Senate Armed Services panels, even if they spent much of their time discussing the war. Other hearings will follow with House and Senate appropriators. Lawmakers will also hear from other military leaders on their spending priorities.
Congressional committees will begin marking up their annual defense policy and spending bills in June. — Connor O'Brien |
Health Care— Speedier drug trials: The Food and Drug Administration is eyeing an opportunity to significantly reduce the time it takes to run clinical trials for new drugs.
The agency aims to do that by advancing a system whereby drug developers report efficacy and safety data to the agency in real-time.
Already two such trials are underway examining cancer therapies from Amgen and AstraZeneca.
FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said the “continuous” trial concept could slash the “dead time” spent on paperwork that occurs between trial phases and regulatory submission.
The FDA is issuing a request for information to design a broader real-time trial pilot program, with plans to outline final selection metrics in July and choose participants in August, the agency said.
If scaled, this could accelerate time-to-market for new therapies and lower development costs but may also increase regulatory scrutiny during trials.
— Health fraud crackdown: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz is taking his fraud busting effort to all 50 states.
Oz recently unveiled a nationwide plan to crack down on alleged Medicaid fraud, announcing his agency will require all states to submit a plan by late May on how they will revalidate Medicaid providers who serve the low-income patients in the program.
The Trump administration contends that bad actors have taken advantage of reduced oversight during the pandemic to fleece the government and that its push to root out fraud shows how Republicans are good stewards of taxpayer dollars.
So far, Oz has sent letters to California, Florida, Maine and New York alleging fraud in their Medicaid programs. Last month, CMS approved a plan submitted by Minnesota to combat Medicaid fraud after threatening a $2 billion cut to future Medicaid payments to the state due to noncompliance. — Health Care Pro Team |
Transportation— Looking for agreement: Cross-chamber staff talks are underway as the House and Senate mull how to address Washington’s midair collision last year. Reaching a deal could be tricky, with major differences between the House-passed ALERT Act and the Senate-OK’d ROTOR Act. The biggest sticking point: provisions related to equipping aircraft with technology aimed at preventing midair collisions.
The Senate bill’s backers argue that the House legislation doesn’t go far enough in boosting aviation safety, while the House bill’s supporters say their measure is in fact more comprehensive. The divide between the House and Senate approaches is raising doubts about whether a final agreement can be reached in the near term.
— Waiting for action: Congress faces a Sept. 30 deadline to reauthorize expiring surface transportation authorities, and many now believe an extension will be needed. A key markup in the House Transportation Committee keeps getting pushed back, with lawmakers continuing to haggle over the legislation’s top line. Bill text has yet to be released. And looming over it all is the question of whether President Trump will get more involved. It all adds to a difficult environment for Congress to get the legislation over the finish line before this fall, especially during an election year.
— DHS’ difficult 2026: It was a tough few months for the Department of Homeland Security, especially at the Transportation Security Administration, which was shut down in mid-February due to a funding lapse. Congress finally approved funding April 30. More than 1,100 TSA officers have quit during the appropriations lapse, raising concerns about FIFA World Cup preparedness this summer. And it raised the question: What will happen in September as another funding deadline approaches, just before the midterms? — Sam Ogozalek |
Technology— Broadcast litigation bonanza: The fate of the $6.2 billion merger of Nexstar and Tegna is now squarely before the courts. The deal creating the largest broadcaster was approved by the Federal Communications Commission and Justice Department, but a judge in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California put it on hold in April.
Much remains in the air heading into May as Nexstar appeals to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. Meanwhile, public interest, labor and the cable industry groups (including conservative cable company Newsmax) are separately challenging the FCC’s approval in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.
President Trump has endorsed the deal, believing it will boost conservative TV, and lawmakers are watching given the merger will create the nation’s largest TV broadcaster, with more than 250 stations.
— House E&C moves on privacy: Republicans on the House Energy & Commerce Committee expect to host a hearing on the SECURE Data Act in May, according to two people familiar with the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly about the legislation.
The bill, introduced in late April, would set a national data privacy standard. The proposal includes a data broker registry and opt-in requirements for collecting sensitive information.
The legislation is built on state data protection laws that have passed in both Republican and Democratic states. Privacy advocates criticized these bills and the federal proposal, arguing they are filled with loopholes and are too lenient.
Republicans hope Democrats back the legislation in the House, and the May hearing is likely the first step in building that support.
— All eyes on AI: Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) is expected to introduce a broad artificial intelligence framework this month, with an emphasis on federal standards that could preempt state laws.
Obernolte, who was elected GOP conference policy chair last month and co-led an AI taskforce with Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), has long maintained that any federal AI proposal requires meaningful input from both parties. However, the White House's AI policy wishlist includes measures opposed by Democrats by overriding what it views as “burdensome” state laws and guardrails touching on electricity costs, kids’ online safety, free speech and copyright. |
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Obernolte must balance these competing interests, especially if he wants to roll out his framework with a Democratic cosponsor. One Democrat eager to strike a deal with Republicans on AI legislation is already out: Rep. Sam Liccardo of California said in late April that he “won’t be on the bill” because it falls short of his requirements around privacy, cybersecurity and other safety concerns.
Now, all focus will be on Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Lieu — two possible Democratic dealmakers — and whether they will endorse Obernolte’s expected legislation. — John Hendel, Alfred Ng, Gabby Miller |
Cybersecurity— Emerging tech: Tech company Anthropic last month unveiled Claude Mythos, an advanced artificial intelligence model, to a select group of tech firms and security researchers. The AI-maker vowed to release it only to this limited cohort, dubbed Project Glasswing, because of its model's unprecedented cyber threat-hunting capabilities.
Since then, the private sector, the Trump administration and allied governments have all sought access to Mythos and more information on the risks it may pose to critical infrastructure. The White House held multiple meetings in April with Anthropic representatives to better understand the model and to ease tensions following a months-long legal dispute over the company’s efforts to set ethical limits on government AI use. The White House also hosted a meeting this week to solicit private sector feedback on an upcoming executive order on AI security.
We’ll be watching for more details on an upcoming executive action on AI security, which is currently being reviewed by federal agencies and the private sector.
— At the agencies: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency will remain without a Senate-confirmed leader for the foreseeable future. Sean Plankey officially withdrew from consideration to head CISA last month after his nomination stalled in the Senate for more than a year.
Plankey, widely viewed as a stabilizing pick to lead CISA, informed Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and the White House in mid-April that he was ending his bid. “After thirteen months since my initial nomination, it has become clear the Senate will not confirm me,” he said in a statement.
We’ll be watching for news on Trump’s potential picks to serve as the Senate-confirmed director for the top cyber defense agency.
Meanwhile, the Justice Department has launched multiple efforts to counter nation-state cyber operations, including an FBI-led initiative to dismantle a Russia-backed hacking campaign targeting home and office routers.
— On the Hill: House lawmakers spent April debating a path forward to renew the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act’s politically fraught spying authority.
The House and Senate failed to reach an agreement and instead settled for a six-week extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows intelligence agencies to collect foreign communications data without a warrant. The short-term extension followed weeks of agonizing negotiations and intraparty disputes over privacy concerns that the authority sweeps up Americans' data, from both Democrats and Republicans.
Lawmakers will continue working to secure a longer-term extension ahead of the new June deadline.
Meanwhile, Democrats on the House Homeland Security Committee’s cyber subcommittee selected Illinois Rep. Delia Ramirez to serve as the new ranking member of the panel. Her appointment replaces former California Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned from Congress this month. Ramirez said she plans to use the role to increase oversight of CISA funding cuts and federal data security practices. — Dana Nickel |
