April WASDE Report Holds Few Surprises, Deemed Neutral to Bearish

OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Thursday lowered domestic corn ending stocks slightly due to higher-than-anticipated ethanol use for the corn crop.

Corn ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels (mb) to 2.122 billion bushels (bb), which was still higher than the average pre-report analysts' estimate.

USDA left Brazilian soybean production unchanged at 155 million metric tons (mmt), matching the high end of pre-report estimates. Argentine soybean production was also untouched at 50 mmt.

On corn, Brazilian production was estimated at 124 mmt, also unchanged from last month, while Argentina's production was trimmed by 1 mmt to 55 mmt.

USDA released its April Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Thursday.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Thursday's new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for soybeans and slightly bearish for corn and wheat. The world ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral for wheat and a little bearish for corn and soybeans.

CORN

USDA lowered ending stocks 2023-24 corn crop to 2.122 billion bushels (bb), down 50 million bushels (mb).

Total 2023-24 Feed and Residual use was increased 25 mb to 5.7 bb. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.4 bb, also up 25 mb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.505 billion bushels, up 50 mb based on the changes in demand.

Exports for the corn crop are pegged at 2.1 bb, which was left unchanged from the March report.

The farmgate price was $4.70 a bushel, down 5 cents from last month.

Globally, beginning stocks for the 2023-24 new crop were raised 0.57 million metric tons (mmt) to 302.19 mmt.

Global ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop were lowered 1.35 mmt to 318.28 mmt.

Despite changes with Conab estimates, USDA held pat on Brazil's corn production at 124 mmt and exports remain pegged at 52 mmt.

Argentina's production was lowered 1 mmt to 55 mmt and export volume remained at 42 mmt.

Ukraine's production was held pat at 29.5 mmt and exports remained at 24.5 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA increased soybean ending stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year to 340 mb, up 25 mb from March's estimate, reflecting changes to exports, seed and residual usage. USDA left production and beginning stocks unchanged, but trimmed its forecast for imports to 25 mb, a 5 mb cut. Crush was left unchanged at 2.3 billion bushels, while exports were trimmed by 20 mb from last month. Soybean use for seed declined by 2 mb to 100 mb, reflecting lower acreage estimates for the 2024 season. Residual use was cut from 22 mb to 13 mb.

The average farm-gate price declined by a dime to $12.55 per bushel.

Globally, USDA made only minor revisions to supply and demand, dropping ending stocks by 0.05 mmt to 114.22 mmt. Brazilian soybean production was unchanged at 155 mmt, as was Argentine production at 50 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2023-2024 season at 698 million bushels up from 673 million in March. USDA cut total use by 30 million bushels, coming from a cut in feed and residual use.

Average wheat farm gate price was estimated at $7.10 per bushel, a drop from $7.15 last month.

Globally, old-crop wheat ending stocks were estimated at 258.3 million metric tons, down from 258.8 mmt in the March estimate.

In South America, USDA estimates Argentina's ending stocks at 3.32 mmt. That's increased from 2.82 mmt in March. Brazil's ending stocks are estimated at 1.0 mmt, a decrease from 1.12 mmt in March.

Ukrainian ending stocks are estimated at 1.58 mmt, a decrease from 3.28 mmt in March. Russian ending stocks were left unchanged at 12.44 mmt.

USDA estimates Ukraine's exports at 17.5 mmt, an increase from 16.0 mmt in March. Russian exports are estimated at 52.0 mmt, an increase from 51.0 mmt in March.

LIVESTOCK

Thursday's WASDE report was supportive of both the cattle and beef markets, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. Beef production for 2024 grew by 130 million pounds from last month's projection as carcass weights are heavier and processing speeds are projected to run more aggressively than originally assumed.

The continued interest in beef products mixed with tight supplies also favored quarterly steer price projections as all three quarters remaining in 2024 saw price increases from March's WASDE projection. The second quarter of 2024 is now expected to average $185 (up $2), the third quarter is expected to average $184 (up $2) and the fourth quarter is expected to average $190 (up $4). 2024 imports remained unchanged at 4,175 million pounds, but 2024 beef exports grew by 20 million pounds.

Thursday's WASDE report was supportive of both the hog and pork markets. Pork production for 2024 was increased by 180 million pounds as packers have been running processing speeds more aggressively than originally assumed, Stewart said. The market's current pork demand has also helped increase hog prices and all three of the remaining quarters of 2024 saw a price increase from last month's projection. Hog prices in the second quarter of 2024 are expected to average $68 (up $3), third-quarter prices are expected to average $72 (up $5) and the fourth quarter is expected to average $57 (up $1). 2024 pork imports grew by 20 million pounds, but exports also grew by 210 million pounds.

WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2023-24
	Apr	Avg	High	Low	Mar	2022-23
CORN
Argentina	55.0	55.3	56.0	54.0	56.0	36.0
Brazil	124.0	122.1	124.2	118.0	124.0	137.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina	50.0	50.2	51.2	49.5	50.0	25.0
Brazil	155.0	151.7	155.0	148.0	155.0	162.0
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2023-24
	Apr	Avg	High	Low	Mar	2022-23
Corn	2,122	2,105	2,191	1,967	2,172	1,360
Soybeans	340	319	358	300	315	264
Wheat	697	685	720	670	673	570
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2023-24
	Apr	Avg	High	Low	Mar	2022-23
Corn	318.3	317.0	319.1	314.0	319.6	301.6
Soybeans	114.2	112.6	114.8	110.0	114.3	102.2
Wheat	258.3	258.6	260.0	256.5	258.8	271.1