This Week's Drought Summary (7/31)

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw continued improvement in drought-related conditions across areas of the Midwest (Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota), central and northern Plains (Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, eastern Montana), South (Texas), and in the Desert Southwest (New Mexico). During the past week, the most significant rainfall accumulations were observed across areas of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota, where they ranged from 3 to 7+ inches. Elsewhere, short-term precipitation shortfalls (past 30 to 60 days) led to continued expansion of Abnormally Dry (D0) areas across the Southeast states including the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama as well as the introduction of isolated areas of Moderate Drought (D1) in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina where agriculture-related drought impacts are being reported. In the South, drought conditions continued to improve in western portions of Texas as well as in areas of eastern New Mexico where monsoonal storms have provided some minor relief to areas experiencing long-term drought. In the West, conditions continued to deteriorate across the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, Idaho) and areas of the Intermountain West (Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado), while areas of eastern Montana saw improvement in drought in response to precipitation events during the past few weeks. In terms of reservoir storage in the West, California’s major reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (July 29), with the state’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, at 105% and 116% of average, respectively. In the Southwest, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is reporting (July 27) Lake Powell at 32% full (46% of average), Lake Mead at 31% full (51%), and the total Colorado system at 39% of capacity (compared to 44% of capacity the same time last year).

Northeast

On this week’s map, some minor changes were made on the map, including expansion of areas Abnormally Dry (D0) in northern, western, and southeastern New York and in northeastern Massachusetts in response to short-term (past 60 days) precipitation shortfalls and declining groundwater and soil moisture levels. For the week, generally light precipitation accumulations (<1 inch) were observed across areas of the region. Average temperatures were above normal across most of the region, especially in the southern portions, where temperatures were 2 to 8 degrees F above normal. The largest departures were observed in West Virginia and New York.

Southeast

During the past week, light-to-moderate rainfall accumulations were observed across the southern extent of the region with the heaviest accumulations (ranging from 2 to 4 inches) occurring in isolated areas of Georgia and Florida. However, pockets of short-term dryness (2 to 6 inches of rainfall deficits during the past 30-day period) led to the introduction and further expansion of Abnormally Dry (D0) areas in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama as well as areas of Moderate Drought (D1) in southwestern portions of Alabama and Georgia. In these areas, streamflow and soil moisture levels are declining and the National Drought Mitigation Center’s Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) system has received some drought-related impact reports in the agricultural sector during the past 30-day period. In terms of average temperatures for the week, the region experienced above-normal temperatures, with the greatest anomalies (4 to 6 degrees F) observed across areas of northern Virginia, the Carolinas, northeastern Georgia, and northern and central Florida.

South

On this week’s map, improvements were made in areas of South Texas and the Trans Pecos region of Texas in response to above-normal precipitation during the past 30-120 days. In these regions, improvements were made in numerous drought categories (D1-D3). In other areas of the region, degradations occurred in southwestern Oklahoma, northern Mississippi, and central Tennessee, where rainfall has been below normal during the past 30 to 60 day period. For the week, average temperatures were above normal in the eastern and northern areas of the region, with anomalies ranging from 2 to 8 degrees F. Conversely, the western extent of the region, including areas in the southern half of Texas, experienced temperatures ranging from 1 to 4 degrees F below normal.

Midwest

Another week with scattered shower activity across drought-affected areas of the region led to continued improvements on the map from Minnesota to Ohio. For the week, rainfall accumulations ranged from 1 to 5 inches, with the heaviest amounts observed in isolated areas of northern Missouri, eastern Iowa, southern Minnesota, central Illinois, and northern Indiana. On the map, improvements were made in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Despite recent rainfall events and overall improving conditions across areas of the region, negative soil moisture anomalies are continuing to show up in northern Illinois, northeastern Indiana, and southern Michigan on several soil moisture monitoring data products. For the week, average temperatures were above normal (2 to 10 degrees F) across the region.

High Plains

On this week’s map, improvements continued from Kansas to North Dakota after another week of scattered shower activity with light-to-moderate accumulations. During the past 30 days, drought-related conditions have improved significantly in northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southeastern and southwestern South Dakota, and southwestern North Dakota as evidenced in a variety of drought monitoring products including streamflows, soil moisture, and vegetation health indicators. However, conditions have degraded in other parts of the region, including central South Dakota and northern North Dakota. For the week, average temperatures were generally above-normal average (1 to 6 degrees F) across the region, with eastern portions experiencing the largest departure, while far western portions of the Dakotas observed temperatures 1 to 4 degrees F below normal.

West

Out West, generally dry conditions prevailed over much of the region except for some isolated shower activity in northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, and Montana. On the map, degradations were made across areas of the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, Idaho) and Intermountain West (Utah, Wyoming, Colorado). In the Pacific Northwest, streamflow activity continues to be well below normal levels across the Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington as well as in the mountain ranges of northern Idaho and western Montana. Similarly, poor surface water conditions were present in many streams and rivers of western Wyoming, Utah, western Colorado, central Arizona, and northern New Mexico. For the week, average temperatures were below normal across most of the region, with anomalies ranging from 2 to 10+ degrees F and the greatest departures observed across California and Nevada.

Caribbean

In Puerto Rico, areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) were reduced in the north-central, northeastern, and southwestern portions of the island.

Dry conditions persisted this week over the U.S. Virgin Islands this week, but islands remained in short-term abnormal dryness. On St. John, Rafe Boulon/Windswept Beach reported 0.32 inch of rain this week. The depth to water level at Susannaberg DPW 3 well (St. John, USVI) on July 29 was 12.58 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a steady decrease in water level since May 18, when the water level was 8.34 ft, but a significantly drop from the November 19, 2025 level at 0.32 ft. The current water level has dropped approximately 3.8 ft lower over the past year, where the reported water level was 8.76 ft below the land surface on July 30, 2024. This week’s SPI values, the 1- and 3-month values indicated drier conditions, consistent with the depiction of abnormal dryness on the island, while longer timescales (6-, 9- & 12-month) showed wetter signal. No precipitation was reported on St. Croix (Henry Rohlsen AP) this week. The depth to water level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) on July 29 was 16.90 ft below land surface. The analysis showed a steady decrease in water level (over 3 ft) since 13.93 on May 25, 2025, but a significant increase (nearly 8 ft) over the past year, where the water depth was 24.74 ft below land surface on July 30, 2024. This week’s 1- and 3-month SPI values confirmed dryness on the island, while wetter conditions were shown in longer timescales. On St. Thomas, Cyril E. King Airport reported a rainfall total of 0.03 inches this week. The depth to water level at Grade School 3 well (St. Thomas, USVI) on July 29 was 8.94 ft below land surface. This is down by nearly 9 ft from the 0.04 value on November 17, 2024, but about 1.9 ft below the water level value from last year (7.08 ft on July 30, 2024). This week’s SPI values showed conditions were wetter at longer timescales, while the 1- and 3-month SPI value confirmed short-term abnormal dryness affected the island.

Pacific

In Alaska, several areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) saw reductions on the map in response to rainfall during the past week.

For the Hawaiian Islands, no changes were made on the map this week.

Conditions were wet over American Samoa this week. Pago Pago reported a weekly rainfall total of 14.43 inches, while Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge reported 7.30 and 10.13 inches of rain this week, respectively. As of July 29, the month was Pago Pago's wettest July on record, with a month-to-date rainfall total of 24.31 inches—breaking the previous record of 19.59 inches set in 1962. American Samoa remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Palau remained free of drought or abnormal dryness this week. The Koror COOP site reported a weekly rainfall total of 1.55 inches (with two days missing), and a month-to-date total of over 15 inches for July (with four days missing).

Wet conditions persisted over the Mariana Islands this week. Saipan, Rota, and Guam received weekly rainfall totals of 6.26, 4.78, and 3.58 inches, respectively. Tinian reported a weekly total of 1.09 inches (with three days missing), which still exceeded the island’s one-inch minimum threshold to meet water needs. The Marianas remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week.

Conditions were mixed across the Federated States of Micronesia this week. Kosrae and Pohnpei reported weekly rainfall amounts of 3.90 inches and 2.19 inches, respectively, and both locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week. Several locations, including Chuuk (1.79 inches), Nukuoro (1.43 inches), Kapingamarangi (0.95 inches), Yap (0.56 inches), and Woleai (0.30 inches), reported rainfall totals below the 2-inch minimum threshold for water needs. However, these locations remained free of drought and abnormal dryness this week due to previously wet conditions. Short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) was removed from Pingelap this week, following a month-to-date rainfall total of 15.98 inches – nearly double the monthly minimum threshold of eight inches. Short-term abnormal dryness (D0-S) was removed from Pingelap this week. Data for Lukunoch, Fananu and Ulithi were insufficient to make any assessments this week.

Dry conditions continued across most of the Republic of the Marshall Islands this week. The rain measured at Kwajalein (1.71 inches), Jaluit (1.00 inches), and Ailinglapalap (0.55 inches) and Wotje (0.12 inches) were below the 2-inch minimum for water needs this week. Based on recent precipitation, and rainfall totals from previous weeks and months, Ailinglapalap and Kwajalein remained in short-term moderate drought (D1-S), while Jaluit and Wotje remained in short-term severe drought (D2-S) this week. Conversely, conditions were wet over Mili and Utirik, reporting weekly rainfall totals of 4.21 and 3.18 inches, respectively. Mili remained free of drought and abnormal dryness, while Utirik was improved to short-term moderate drought (D1-S) this week.

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for generally dry conditions across much of the western U.S. except for some light shower activity (accumulations generally <1 inch) across areas of the Rockies (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado) and mountain ranges of New Mexico. East of the Rockies, light-to-moderate accumulations (ranging from 1 to 4 inches) are expected across areas of the Plains states with the heaviest accumulations expected in western Oklahoma. In the lower Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, South (Gulf Coast areas), and portions of the Southeast, 1 to 5+ inch accumulations are forecast, with the heaviest accumulation expected along the coastal plains of Carolina and Georgia. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10-day outlooks call for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest, southeastern portions of the Intermountain West, Plains, Midwest, New England, South, and southern portions of the Southeast region. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are forecast for areas of the West, including southern California, the Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest. In terms of precipitation, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, northern portions of the Intermountain West, northern Plains Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. Elsewhere, below-normal precipitation is expected across the southern half of the western U.S., southern Plains, and Texas.