This Week's Drought Summary (10/30)

Heavy precipitation (over 3 inches) was observed last week over many of the higher elevations and coastal areas from northern California to the Canadian Border. Farther east, similar amounts doused numerous locations from Oklahoma southward to central Texas, a few areas across the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the southern Appalachians, parts of the central Gulf Coast, the east-central Florida Peninsula, and some areas just downwind of Lake Erie. Between 5 and 10 inches of precipitation fell on a few areas in the coastal and higher elevations of Washington and Oregon, north-central through east-central Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, south-central Mississippi, and east-central Florida. Moderate to heavy precipitation (between 1 and 3 inches with isolated higher amounts) was reported across the rest of the Pacific Northwest, parts of the higher elevations in the northern Intermountain West, part of the northern Great Plains, most of central and western Michigan, a few patches across New England, and many areas from the central Carolinas to the central Great Plains, plus much of northern and central Texas, the southern Lower Mississippi Valley, and a few patches across northwestern and central Florida. Other locations across the Conterminous U.S. (“Lower-48”) received only a few tenths of an inch at best.

This resulted in significant areas of improvement in the Pacific Northwest, northern Intermountain West, the Great Plains from eastern Kansas through central Texas, the interior Deep South, the Ohio Valley, the eastern Great Lakes, the Carolinas, the southern Appalachians, and a few patches in New England. In some of the drier areas, dryness and drought conditions deteriorated in a few parts of the central and northern High Plains, the Texas Panhandle, Deep South and Coastal Texas, southern Alabama and Georgia, and small areas in the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast from New York to coastal Maine. Deteriorating conditions also affected small parts of Hawaii (Upcountry Maui, northeastern Maui, and the southeastern Big Island). Conditions in Puerto Rico were unchanged with abnormal dryness persisting in parts of southeastern Puerto Rico, and Alaska remained free of any dryness or drought.

Overall, coverage of D0 or drier conditions across the Lower-48 declined slightly from 72 to 69 percent, remaining well above the average coverage since 2000 (49.2 percent). Drought (D1 or worse) extent also declined slightly from 46.1 to 43.6 percent of the Lower-48, also above the average since 2000 (31.1 percent).

Northeast

Several inches of precipitation fell to the lee of Lake Erie, improving conditions there. Elsewhere, Light to moderate rain fell to the lee of Lake Ontario and across most of New England, with a few higher amounts observed in northern New Hampshire and eastern Maine. Over the rest of the Northeast Region, only scattered totals under 0.2 inch were recorded. Improvement was noted in southwestern and northwestern Pennsylvania, westernmost New York, some of the higher elevations in Vermont and New Hampshire, and part of eastern Maine. In contrast, deficient precipitation resulted in deterioration in southern Maine, parts of interior Upstate New York, and small sections of southern New Jersey and Maryland. Several sites in southern reaches of the Northeast report record or near-record low streamflows for late October, including the Lehigh River at Glendon, PA, Rock Creek near Washington, DC, and on some creeks near Downington, Phoenixville, and Allentown, Pennsylvania. Precipitation totals for the last 60 days are 3 to 6 inches below normal in a swath from Maryland and southern Pennsylvania through central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern and western New Jersey, Upstate and southeastern New York, and scattered areas across New England.

Southeast

Precipitation was highly variable across the Southeast Region. At least an inch fell on the central and southern Carolinas, central and northern Georgia and Alabama, the southern Florida Panhandle, and parts of the central and eastern Florida Peninsula. Over 3 inches doused western South Carolina and adjacent areas, isolated locations across northern Georgia, part of east-central Peninsular Florida, and coastal western Florida Panhandle. In contrast, little or no rain fell on most of Virginia, southern Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and most areas on the Florida Peninsula.

This resulted in a fairly solid swath of improvement from central South Carolina westward into the southern Appalachians and the northern and western sections of Alabama. Farther south, where rainfall was lighter and more scattered, deterioration was introduced in southeastern Alabama, part of southern Georgia, plus portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Peninsular Florida.

The most intense drought conditions now cover a broad swath across northern Florida and adjacent portions of Georgia, where D3 conditions now dominate. Smaller areas of D3 cover west-central Alabama and northwestern Georgia. D2 is extant in surrounding areas plus southeastern Alabama, eastern North Carolina, and part of northern Virginia. Overall, coverage of dryness and drought decreased a bit from 85.0 to 81.7 percent, but the more intense categories (D2 or worse) climbed from 19.1 to 22.9 percent, largely due to continued quick deterioration in northern Florida and surrounding areas. The largest deficits over the past 60 days cover parts of the Virginia Blue Ridge, eastern North Carolina, and in some areas near the Florida/Georgia/Alabama borders. In these areas, accumulated precipitation deficits total 4 to 8 inches since late August.

South

Heavy rains in many regions engendered broad areas of improvement across most of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Some areas of deterioration were observed in areas that missed the heavy rains, specifically southern and coastal Texas, part of the Texas Panhandle, and a few patches of the Red River (South) Valley. Several inches of rain resulted in a few swaths of 2-category improvement across central and east-central Texas as well as central Oklahoma, where upwards of 4 to 8 inches of precipitation were observed. Overall, coverage of dryness and drought dropped from 80.6 to 68.6 percent of the Region while drought coverage (D1 or worse) was reduced from 37.1 to 27.6 percent. D3-D4 extent inched down slightly from 10.7 to 9.6 percent. But despite the wet week, 90-day rainfall amounts ranged from 3 to 6 inches below normal across much of the Red River (South) Valley, and from 4 to locally over 10 inches from central Texas eastward along and near the Gulf Coast.

Midwest

Several inches of precipitation fell to the lee of Lake Erie, leading to a swath of 2-category improvement in northeastern Ohio. Moderate to heavy precipitation was reported across northern Upper Michigan, western Lower Michigan, northwestern Minnesota, southeastern Missouri, and areas near the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers’ Confluence. Other locations across Michigan, northern Minnesota, and southern half of Missouri, and central through southern Kentucky observed light to locally heavy totals while most areas from southern Minnesota, Iowa, and northern Missouri eastward across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio experienced a dry week, with only isolated sites reporting up to 0.2 inch. Some of the wetter locations across Michigan and in the Ohio Valley felt improved conditions by the end of the week, and a few other patches of improvement were introduced based on a re-assessment of heavy rains earlier in the month. Deterioration was introduced across portions of the dry swath from Iowa into Indiana. Overall, coverage of D0 or worse declined slightly from 71.2 to 68.8 percent of the Midwest Region, but the more intense conditions (D2 or worse) expanded slightly from 9.7 to 11.6 percent of the Region. Precipitation over the past 60 days was broadly 3 to 5 inches below normal in northern Wisconsin, part of northern and eastern Iowa, central and northern Illinois, and numerous locations across central Indiana and northwestern Ohio.

High Plains

The High Plains Region is currently the Region least-affected by dryness and drought. Only 37.2 percent of the Region is affected by dryness (D0) or drought (D1-D4). Colorado and Wyoming are the most drought-impacted states, with almost 55% of those states combined covered by D0 conditions or worse, and about one-third experiencing some degree of drought (D1-D4), primarily in the higher elevations. In the Great Plains states, there is no drought in North Dakota and D0 covers less than 3 percent of the state. Dry conditions are a little more common farther south, with D0 or worse covering 39 percent of South Dakota, 35 percent of Nebraska, and 25 percent of Kansas. In all 3 states, drought (D1 or worse) coverage is less than 13 percent. Last week, moderate to locally heavy rain induced areas of improvement in eastern Kansas and far northwestern Wyoming while patches of deterioration were introduced in eastern South Dakota and small parts of south-central Colorado and far northeastern Kansas.

West

Following substantial changes across the West Region last week, conditions generally persisted across all but the northern tier of the West Region, with no changes made relative to last week across New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and most of California. Across the northern tier of the West Region, heavy precipitation engendered improvement in a few areas, mostly across northern California, Oregon, and Washington from the Cascades to the Pacific Coast. Many locations in the higher elevations of Washington and near the Washington and northern Oregon coastline measured over 3 inches of precipitation, with scattered amounts of 4 to locally over 8 inches recorded, particularly in northwestern and north-central Washington. Farther east, recent precipitation led to some improvement across western Montana and northern Idaho while, to the east, recent deficient precipitation totals led to deterioration across north-central Montana.

Caribbean

Abnormal dryness (D0) remained unchanged from last week after some spotty light to moderate rain in Puerto Rico.

The U.S. Virgin Islands remained free of drought. The National Weather Service’s 7-day quantitative precipitation estimates indicated that St. Thomas received 0.50 to 1.5 inches, St. John collected 0.50 to 1.0 inches, while St. Croix got 0.50 inches or less. The Vegetation Health Index indicated some minor stress for St. Croix. The levels in water wells on all islands rose over the past month and were beginning to drop again.

Pacific

No dryness or drought is currently present in Alaska.

Rainfall was again hit-and-miss across the island chain last week. Last week’s Drought Monitor depiction is largely unchanged this week, outside 3 areas which intensified: Upcountry Maui (to D2), northeastern Maui (to D1), and part of the southeastern Big Island (to D2). The latter region is climatologically wet, and some locations reported only about two-thirds of normal precipitation for January through late October, which equates to nearly 3 feet below normal.

The Republic of Palau received more than 3 inches at Palau International Airport, while Koror COOP received just 0.58 inches got ample rainfall in previous weeks. Water supplies should be adequate as these locations need 2 inches per week to meet minimum water needs.

The Mariana Islands had ample rain at most locations. Guam received 2.13 inches, while Saipan received from 1.72 to 3.45 inches at the three reporting locations. Rota reported just 0.88 inches and more than 2 inches in previous weeks. These islands need an inch weekly to meet minimum water needs.

Most locations in the Federated States of Micronesia received at least two inches of rainfall. The exceptions were Kapingamarangi, which remained at D2, and collected just 0.45 inches of precipitation. Pingelap reported only 0.04 inches of rain and was thought to have some issues with the rain gauge as the island was not lacking rain. Some of the higher precipitation amounts were noted at Pohnpei and Woleai with 6.39 and 4.99 inches, respectively.

All locations in the Marshall Islands received at least 2 inches of precipitation this week or the previous week, so water supplies should be adequate.

American Samoa remained free of dryness. Pago Pago and Siufaga Ridge received 3.73 inches and 2.45 inches, respectively. Toa Ridge got 0.97 inches and nearly 6 inches the week prior.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5 days (October 30 – November 3), a large part of the Lower-48 is expecting little or no precipitation, specifically most areas from the Appalachians to the Pacific Coast. Light to moderate amounts are forecast for most of interior New England, the central and southern Appalachians, the Oregon Cascades and Coast, the higher elevations of the Intermountain West, much of Peninsular Florida, and portions of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Heavier amounts exceeding 1.5 inches are anticipated across the Washington Cascades and Coast, isolated spots near the central and western Gulf Coast, much of the middle and upper Ohio Valley, most of a broad swath from Maryland through New York, and the Florida Keys. Daily high temperatures are forecast to average 2 to 4 deg. F below normal across the Southeast, and near normal over the Northeast and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Unusual warmth featuring daily Highs 4 deg. F or more above normal is expected across the northern Great Plains and most locations from the High Plains to the Pacific Coast, outside the Pacific Northwest. Average daily highs could reach 10 to 14 deg. F above-normal across the eastern Great Basin and the central and northern Rockies.

During November 4 – 8, wetter than normal weather is again expected in the Pacific Northwest, expanding to cover the northern Intermountain West, western Great Basin, and central through northern California. Odds for wetness exceed 50 percent from northwestern California through central and western parts of Washington and Oregon. Elsewhere, wet weather is marginally favored in much of the South Atlantic, south-central and southeastern Alaska, and portions of northern Alaska. Meanwhile, most of a large swath from the Rockies to the Appalachians have enhanced odds for drier-than-normal conditions, with chances topping 50 percent across New Mexico and the western half of Texas. Subnormal precipitation is also marginally favored across all but the eastern fringe of the Big Island in Hawaii. Warmer than normal conditions are favored from the Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley through most areas from the Mississippi Valley to the Pacific Coast. Enhanced chances for warmer-than-normal weather also cover southern Florida, south-central and eastern Alaska, and Hawaii. Most areas over and near the central Rockies have chances for warmth exceeding 80 percent. Subnormal temperatures are only favored in New England and adjacent New York. In other areas, near normal temperatures are most likely.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/28)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/27)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 25 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	3033874 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/23)

Recently, precipitation has been spatially variable across the Contiguous U.S. (“Lower-48”). Over the past 30 days, heavy precipitation (4 to locally over 8 inches) fell on parts of central and southern New England, the interior Northeast (especially eastern New York state), the Ohio Valley (particularly northern Kentucky and adjacent areas), eastern South Carolina, eastern Florida, parts of the Tennessee and adjacent Mississippi Valleys, isolated sites in the central Plains, the higher elevations in the Rockies, central Arizona and other scattered locations across the Southwest, parts of the Great Basin, portions of California (where such amounts are unusual this early in the wet season), and the Pacific Northwest (where these amounts are not unusual).

In stark contrast, an inch or less of precipitation has been noted in the desert Southwest and lower elevations across the interior West, most of the central and southern Plains, the northern Great Plains, the northwestern Great Lakes, portions or northern and western Florida, and some interior sections of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region.

Given the regional variability, there were a lot of changes in the Drought Monitor this week, with large parts of the West, much of the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys, and scattered locations across northern Mississippi, the Eastern Great Lakes, and the Northeast. At the same time, conditions have deteriorated across much of the southern and south-central Plains, the South Atlantic region from interior Georgia through eastern Virginia, southern parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, and scattered areas across the rest of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic region, the Northeast, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the northern Plains.

In sum, the array of improvements and deterioration incorporated into this week’s Drought Monitor resulted in slight declines in overall coverage of the various drought severity levels across the Lower-48. Abnormally dry or worse conditions cover 72 percent of the country, down from 74 percent last week. About 21 percent of the country is experiencing Severe Drought or worse (D2-D4), down slightly from 23 percent last week. For the 50 states plus Puerto Rico in total, coverage of abnormally dry or worse conditions fell from 62 to just under 60.5 percent.

Northeast

The coverage of some degree of dryness (D0 or higher) declined very slightly but continues to affect a vast majority of the region (93 percent, down one percent). However, the extent of more intense drought (D2-D4) increased slightly from just under 34 to just over 36 percent. Compared to other Regions, changes were less widespread, with small areas of improvement noted in the western half of West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, eastern New York, and the central and western sections of New England. Meanwhile, dryness and drought coverage and intensity increased in a few areas from central Maryland northward through north-central New York, and across northern Maine. Precipitation totaled 1 to 3.5 inches across much of northern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, western New York, and central New England. Other locations reported less, with little or none from lower New York state and southwestern New England southward through Delaware and eastern Maryland. The most widespread area of Severe to Extreme Drought (D2-D3) persisted across Maine and northern New England, with smaller areas of similar intensity were noted across eastern West Virginia and vicinity.

Southeast

A dry week resulted in significant areas of deterioration from eastern Virginia through sections of North Carolina, the central tiers of South Carolina and central Georgia, and scattered locations over the rest of the Carolinas, northern Georgia, and scattered areas from central Alabama through western Peninsular Florida. Sections of southern and northern Alabama along with sections of the western Florida Panhandle and northern Peninsular Florida reported more than a few tenths of an inch, and other areas were drier. Some locations near the central Gulf Coast and west-central Alabama received 1 to 2 inches, and a few patches of improvement were limited to parts of these areas. The dry week allowed coverage of dryness and drought to increase from 81 to 85 percent. Moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) expanded from less than 49 percent to over 58 percent of the Southeast Region, and coverage of severe drought or worse (D2-D4) is approaching 20 percent. The worst dryness in the region (D3) covered west-central Alabama, a new area in northwestern Georgia, and parts of the northern Florida Panhandle and adjacent areas of Georgia.

South

Moderate to heavy rain resulted in several areas of improvement in Tennessee, central and northern Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and eastern Oklahoma. Farther south and west, subnormal precipitation continued for another week, resulting in numerous areas of deterioration from central and southern Louisiana westward across Texas and central through western Oklahoma. The proportion of the Region experiencing some degree of dryness or drought (D0+) increased slightly this week, from 79 percent to about 80.5 percent. There was a bigger jump in areas covered by some degree of drought (37 percent, up from a bit over 32 percent). The most intense drought (D3 with some isolated patches of D4) cover parts of the panhandle of western Texas and a sizeable part of south-central Texas. The heaviest rains this week (2 to 4 inches) were observed in a broken pattern from northwestern Louisiana through northern Mississippi. In contrast, southern sections of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the vast majority of Texas and Oklahoma received a few tenths of an inch at best, with most sites reporting no measurable precipitation.

Midwest

Once again this week, many parts of the Midwest Region received moderate to heavy precipitation. There was some expansion of dryness and moderate drought from northern Minnesota through Iowa, where less precipitation fell, but much broader areas of improvement were noted over the Michigan Lower Peninsula and the Ohio Valley States. Overall, the extent of any degree of dryness or drought (D0-D4) dropped only slightly by 1 percent (to 71 percent), but there was a more substantial decrease in the coverage of the most intense categories. Severe drought or worse (D2-D4) covered over 14.5 percent of the Region on October 14, but less than 10 percent this week. The worst conditions in the Region (D3) stretched across parts of southwestern Missouri, east-central Illinois, central and northeastern Indiana, and northwestern Ohio. Between 2 and 4 inches of precipitation fell on a band from east-central Missouri across upper southern Illinois and into west-central Indiana, while 1.5 to 3.0 soaked a large part of the Michigan Lower Peninsula.

High Plains

A wide range of precipitation totals were observed last week. Generally, 1.5 to 3.0 inches hit the northern and western Dakotas, much of central and eastern Wyoming, and scattered locations in northwestern Wyoming. An inch or a little more fell on many locations in a swath from central Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, but other locations reported several tenths of an inch of precipitation at best, with most areas from southwestern Wyoming through western Nebraska and from eastern Nebraska through Kansas reporting little or none. This pattern resulted in less change here than in most other regions. Areas of deterioration were introduced in parts of the east-central and southeastern High Plains Region while improvement resulted from heavier precipitation farther west. The most widespread areas of improvement covered southwestern Colorado and western Wyoming. Coverage of dryness and drought is considerably lower in this region than in others, with the total area entrenched in some degree of dryness or drought (D0-D4) dropping slightly to a bit over 36 percent this week. The extent of Extreme Drought (D3) was almost cut in half, from 3.3 percent down to 1.7 percent. There is no D4 in the Region, but D3 remains across much of southwestern Wyoming and part of central Colorado. The proportion of the Great Plains States in this Region experiencing some degree of dryness or drought (D0-D4) is relatively low compared to much of the Lower-48; specifically, 3 percent of North Dakota, 32 percent of South Dakota, 35 percent of Nebraska, and 28 percent of Kansas.

West

Some unusually heavy early-season rain and snow has affected portions of the West, including areas of central and southern California where October so far has been wetter than most such months on record. Large portions of central and upper southern California, the Great Basin, and the western and eastern tiers of Utah saw improvement on this week’s Drought Monitor, along with patches of central and eastern Arizona, southwestern Oregon, central and eastern Washington, and parts of eastern, southern, and western Montana. Only a portion of north-central Montana saw any deterioration. The total area covered by any dryness (D0-D4) declined from 80 to a bit over 74 percent this week while the coverage of the more intense drought categories (D2-D4) dropped from 38.5 percent to just over one-third of the Region. D3-D4 was still entrenched over a decent proportion of the Region, but declined from almost 9 percent last week to about 6.5 percent this week. The only remaining area of the most intense category (D4) is in north-central Idaho.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico

In Puerto Rico, abnormal dryness (D0) expanded through a few more municipalities in southeastern parts of the Commonwealth, consistent with continued subnormal rainfall in the area.

No drought conditions are currently present in Alaska.

Most locations across Hawaii reported below normal precipitation through early- and mid-October, although scattered locations reported amounts closer to normal, including Lihue, Molokai, and Kailua-Kona. Hilo has recorded a bit over 3 inches so far this month, which is about half of normal. At this time, no changes were made this week, but if generally subnormal amounts continue, areas of deterioration will be necessary soon.

Virgin Islands

The U.S. Virgin Islands received plentiful rain as Invest 98L moved along to the south of the islands and brought the possibility of some localized urban and small stream flooding. The National Weather Service’s 7-day quantitative precipitation estimates indicated that St. Thomas received 0.5 to 4 inches, St. John received 2 to 4 inches, while St. Croix received 0.5 to 2 inches. All islands remained drought-free. Water levels in wells rose over the past month in response to rainfall.

Pacific Islands

The Republic of Palau received enough precipitation with 2.45 inches at Palau IAP and 1.8 inches at Koror. Water supplies should be satisfactory as these islands need two inches of precipitation weekly to meet minimum water needs as most islands in the USAPI do.

The Mariana Islands all reported enough rain this week or in recent weeks to have adequate water supplies and need an inch weekly. Guam received 11.26 inches, while Rota reported 2.35 inches. Saipan received 2.47 inches at its ASOS station, 1.3 inches at Saipan IAP and 0.58 inches at Saipan (AMME NPS).

Most islands in the Federated States of Micronesia either received adequate rainfall this week or, in many cases, ample precipitation in previous weeks to have adequate water supplies. Kapingamarangi, however, was in D2 and collected just 0.02 inches in the rain gauge.

The Marshall Islands were mixed in terms of precipitation. Ailinglaplap, Majuro and Mili each received more than 4.5 inches for the week, while Wotje and Kwajalein reported 1.9 and 1.66 inches, respectively. Utirik received just 1.12 inches for the week and 2.83 inches in October, indicating that water supplies may be short. All locations were free of drought.

American Samoa received abundant precipitation with 5.02 inches at Pago Pago, 4.63 inches at Siufaga Ridge and 5.98 inches at Toa Ridge.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5 to 7 days, two general areas are expected to receive heavy precipitation: The Pacific Northwest, and a swath from the southern Great Plains through the Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. Windward areas and higher elevations are expecting 5 to locally over 10 inches of precipitation, with 2 or more inches anticipated for other areas from the Cascades to the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, 3 to 5 inches are expected from the Red River (South) Valley into eastern Texas and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Elsewhere, totals exceeding 1.5 inches are forecast in the higher elevations of northern and central Idaho and adjacent areas. Moderate amounts (0.5 to locally over 1.5 inches) are expected to fall on the Ohio Valley, the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, and remaining locations in the southern half of the Plains outside Deep South Texas. Look for a few tenths to around an inch of precipitation in the northern Sierra Nevada, plus portions of the northern Intermountain West and Rockies. Elsewhere, light amounts at best are anticipated in most of New England, parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, the South Atlantic coastal plain, much of Peninsular Florida, Deep South Texas, most lower elevations across the interior West including the Southwest into central California, plus most of the Great Basin. Daily highs are forecast to average 4 to 8 deg. F below normal from central California through the Pacific Northwest and across the northern Intermountain West. Similar anomalies should affect the Atlantic Seaboard and Piedmont from northern Georgia through southern New England. Meanwhile, unusually warm weather will likely continue across the northern Plains, with daily highs averaging 5 to 10 deg. F above normal from northern Minnesota through the Dakotas and northern Great Lakes into northeastern New York. Also, highs averaging 4 to 8 deg. F above normal are expected from the Southwest through western and southern Texas. Low temperatures should average warmer with respect to normal across most of the Lower-48, especially over the Plains, Mississippi Valley, the Southwest, and the Great Basin. Low temperatures could average 6 to 13 deg. F above normal in the northeastern Great Plains and adjacent areas. The only broad area expecting below-normal lows (by 2 to 5 deg. F on average) stretches from Virginia northward through much of New York.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook valid for October 29 – November 1 favors heavier than normal precipitation continuing across the Pacific Northwest, where odds for significantly above-normal precipitation range from 50 to 70 percent. Wet weather is slightly favored across most of the Rockies and Plains as well as parts of central and northern California, northwestern Nevada, and the Pacific Northwest. Wetter than normal conditions are nominally favored across Hawaii. Abnormally dry weather is expected from central and western Texas through central and southern sections of the High Plains and Rockies. Odds for subnormal amounts exceed 50 percent from eastern Arizona through parts of the Texas Big Bend. Meanwhile, warm weather is favored from California, the Southwest, and the Great Basin through parts of the northern Rockies, the High Plains, the northern Great Plains, the Great Lakes, and northern New England. There is a better than 60 percent chance for warmth from southern California into western New Mexico. Cool weather is forecast across the South Atlantic region from Maryland through parts of Florida along with the central and southern Appalachians and the adjacent central Gulf Coast. The Hawaii forecast favors warmth, with chances exceeding 50 percent across the western half of the island chain.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/21)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/20)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 23 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	3111010 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/16)

A late-season surge of tropical moisture brought heavy precipitation and areas of flooding to parts of the Four Corners States. Amounts of 4 to locally over 6 inches were reported in parts of interior Arizona and southern Colorado. Farther east, a potent coastal storm system brought gusty winds and heavy rains to parts of the East Coast. Rainfall totals approached one foot near Georgetown and Pawley’s Island, SC while amounts of 7 to 10 inches were scattered across South Carolina and near Whiteville, NC. Totals of 4 to 6 inches were measured at scattered locations from South Florida northward through eastern Massachusetts. Wind gusts reached 60 to 65 mph at several buoys near the North Carolina Coast; Cape Lookout, NC; and Island Beach Park, NJ. In contrast, only a few tenths of an inch, at most, fell across southeast California, most of the Great Basin, the central and northern High Plains, much of the Great Plains, the Great Lakes Region, portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, much of the interior Deep South, and the Gulf Coast Region. Drought designations improved by multiple categories in some of the wetter areas across interior Arizona, southern Colorado, and eastern South Carolina while broad areas of 1-category improvement covered the central and southwestern Four Corners Region, The Middle and Lower Ohio Valley and adjacent locations, and portions of the Atlantic Coast from south Florida through southern New England. In contrast, dryness and drought persisted or intensified across large parts of the Deep South away from the Atlantic Coast, the central Gulf Coast Region, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the east-central and south-central Great Plains, and scattered locations across the northern tier of the Lower-48 from Montana through northern New England.

Northeast

Between 3 and 5 inches of precipitation fell on Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, as well as parts of east-central New Jersey and eastern Delaware. Totals of 2 to locally 4 inches were observed across the rest of central and south New Jersey, southern New England, central through southeastern New York, the central tier of Pennsylvania, much of southern and northeastern West Virginia, and parts of the Maryland higher elevations. Most locations across the Northeast Region reported moderate amounts of 0.5 to locally approaching 2 inches, with some lesser amounts reported in Downeast Maine and along the St. Lawrence Valley. This brought 1-category drought improvements to much of southern New England, finally bringing a little tangible improvement to Cape Cod, which has been entrenched in drought longer than most other locations in the Northeast. Improvement was also noted in a few areas of southern and eastern West Virginia, eastern Upstate New York, and eastern New Jersey while some areas in eastern Maine and the St. Lawrence Valley noted increasing indicators of dryness and drought.

Southeast

Eastern parts of the Southeast Region affected by the coastal storm complex experienced significant improvement in dryness and drought accompanying heavy rainfall, areas of flooding, and high winds. Much of eastern South Carolina and some adjacent areas noted 2-category improvements from 6 to 12 inches of rain while improvement was noted along many Atlantic Coastal areas from Florida through the Carolinas. Farther west, much drier conditions prevailed, along with generally above-normal temperatures. Increasing short-term rainfall deficits abetted surface moisture loss, leading to significant areas of deteriorating dryness and drought from western Virginia and northern North Carolina southward across upstate South Carolina, portions of Georgia, the northern tier of Florida, and much of Alabama. D3 (extreme drought) expanded significantly across southwestern Georgia, much of the Florida Panhandle, and adjacent Alabama.

South

Recent rainfall allowed for some improvement in dryness and drought across western Tennessee, adjacent Mississippi, central Oklahoma, and western Texas. However, deterioration was more common in aggregate across the South Region, with most of northwestern Mississippi, Louisiana, and eastern Oklahoma noting some intensification. There were scattered areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, but most of the Region recorded subnormal amounts for the week.

Midwest

Heavy rain brought widespread improvement to most of Kentucky, the southern reaches of Ohio and Indiana, eastern Ohio, and a few areas near southern Lake Michigan. A few patches in central Ohio assessed a 2-category improvement. Lesser amounts fell elsewhere, leading to scattered areas of deterioration across Illinois, central Indiana, Michigan, east-central and northwestern Wisconsin, Minnesota, northwestern Iowa, and parts of Missouri (especially the western tier). For the past 2 months, precipitation totals 4 to 8 inches below normal are fairly widespread across most of Missouri and Illinois, plus parts of southwestern Iowa and the east-central Michigan Lower Peninsula. Much of northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio are 3 to locally 5 inches below normal during this period.

High Plains

Heavy to excessive precipitation pounded the higher elevations of Colorado. Most areas from west-central through south-central portions of the state received at least 3 inches of precipitation, with much heavier amounts – approaching 8 inches in spots – falling on the higher elevations of south-central Colorado. This precipitation let to widespread improvements, with some of the wetter areas noting 2-category improvements. Elsewhere light to moderate precipitation (generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches) fell on most of the Plains and Wyoming, with amounts over an inch recorded in isolated sections of central Kansas, eastern North Dakota, and westernmost Wyoming. Significant areas of dryness development or deterioration were limited to eastern Kansas and the southern tier of South Dakota.

West

Late-season tropical moisture surged into the Four Corners States, bringing heavy to excessive precipitation to large parts of Arizona, western New Mexico, and eastern Utah. Improvement was also noted in scattered areas across central and western Utah, and southwestern Montana. The only areas of deterioration were in north-central and northeastern Montana, where parts of a few counties slid from D0 into moderate drought (D1). In other parts of the West Region, precipitation amounts were nondescript, and dryness and drought were essentially unchanged.

Caribbean

Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded through more of the southeastern Commonwealth while increased rainfall brought an end to D0 near the south-central coast.

Tropical Storm Jerry passed northeast of the northeastern Caribbean this week, resulting in increased moisture and instability over the U.S. Virgin Islands and causing intense bursts of heavy rain.

On St. Croix, CoCoRaHS stations reported various rainfall amounts for the week. VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted, 1.3 ENE) received 3.21 inches of rain, while VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW) recorded 2.98 inches. VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted, 1.9 NE) reported 2.71 inches, although two days of data are missing. VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted, 1.7 ESE) measured 2.72 inches, and VI-SC-10 (Christiansted, 1.6 E) noted 2.19 inches. Finally, VI-SC-23 (Christiansted, 6.5 W) recorded 1.63 inches of rainfall. This week, the 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) value for East Hill is 1.5, reflecting the recent heavy rain. Furthermore, the SPI values for the past 3, 6, 9, and 12 months also showed positive trends due to the recent precipitation. According to the USGS, the groundwater level at Adventure 28 Well (St. Croix, USVI) has decreased from last month’s level of 18.60 ft on September 14 to 18.15 ft this week on October 14, keeping St. Croix drought-free.

This week, St. John experienced significant rainfall across the island. Windswept Beach (VI-SJ-3) recorded 3.37 inches of rain, while Myall Point (VI-SJ-9, 0.1 S) recorded 2.92 inches. Cruz Bay (VI-SJ-5, 1.6 E) received 1.18 inches. All Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at the East End (672551) St. Johns station are positive, indicating that the island is currently experiencing wet weather conditions. As of October 14, 2025, the groundwater level at the Susannaberg DPW 3 well in St. John, USVI, has decreased from 13.05 feet on September 14 to 7.65 feet on October 14, allowing St. John to remain drought-free.

St. Thomas also received significant rainfall throughout the island. For example, on October 11, 2025, the National Weather Service reported that Cyril E. King Airport on St. Thomas received 3.59 inches of rain in one day, contributing to a weekly total of 4.16 inches. The rain gauge at VI-ST-13 (Charlotte Amalie, 1.2 NNW) recorded 4.75 inches of rain, although data was missing for one day. Meanwhile, VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West, 1.3 N) recorded 3.52 inches of rainfall, also with one day of missing data. Additionally, VI-ST-14 (Nadir 0.3E/Tropical Marine) observed 0.55 inches of rain, but it had four days of missing data. Additionally, the groundwater level at the Grade School 3 well in St. Thomas, USVI, has decreased from 8.19 ft on September 14 to 2.59 ft as of October 14. This change indicates that St. Thomas remains drought-free.

Pacific

No drought conditions are currently present.

Despite areas of light to moderate precipitation, the dryness and drought covering most of the state is unchanged from the prior week.

This week, the majority of the Marshall Islands were drought-free, while certain islands experienced considerable rainfall. For example, Majuro, Ailinglapalap, and Wotje recorded 6.44, 4.19, and 2.68 inches of rain, respectively. Jaluit and Kwajalein reported 2.39 and 2.68 inches of rain, respectively. Additionally, Mili received 0.38 inches of rainfall this week, which has helped the island remain drought-free due to the rain in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Utirik recorded 0.43 inches of rain this week and has improved to being drought-free due to recent rains and local expert recommendations.

This week, heavy rainfall impacted several islands in the Federated States of Micronesia. Kosrae received 6.13 inches of rain, Nukuoro received 5.71 inches, and Pohnpei recorded 3.78 inches. Additionally, Yap, Chuuk Lagoon, Lukunor, and Woleai received 2.44, 2.21, 1.93, and 1.07 inches of rain, respectively, ensuring that these islands remain drought-free. Pingelap received only 0.18 inches this week but stayed drought-free due to the wet conditions in the previous weeks. In contrast, Kapingamarangi did not receive any rain and is currently experiencing severe drought conditions.

American Samoa has recently experienced significant rainfall, with various areas on the island reporting heavy downpours. Pago Pago recorded 3.51 inches of rain, Siufaga Ridge received 5.68 inches, and Toa Ridge reported 3.23 inches this week. As a result, American Samoa is currently experiencing drought-free conditions.

Palau had wet weather this week, with the Weather Service Office in Airai recording 1.35 inches of rainfall, while Koror reported 2.13 inches. As a result, the island remained drought-free.

This week, wet weather conditions prevailed in the Mariana Islands, with some areas receiving heavy rainfall. According to the weekly rainfall report, Rota recorded 2.46 inches of rain, Guam received 1.17 inches, Tinian measured 0.74 inches, and Saipan had 0.52 inches. As a result, the Mariana Islands are currently experiencing drought-free conditions.

Looking Ahead

During October 15-20, 2025, heavy precipitation (1.5 to 3.0 inches) is forecast for coastal and windward locations from the Cascades to the Pacific Ocean, across eastern Montana and adjacent North Dakota, along a frontal boundary from the Middle Mississippi Valley through the central tier of the Great Lakes Region, and across scattered locations in northwestern Pennsylvania, the Tennessee Valley, and the Lower Ohio Valley. Moderate amounts of 0.7 to 1.5 inches are anticipated in the remainder of the Pacific Northwest, the higher elevations of the northern Intermountain West, central and northern Wyoming, the northern tier of the Plains, parts of the central Great Plains, most areas from the southeastern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast Region, the interior Deep South, most of the Ohio Valley, the lower Northeast, and southern New England. Meanwhile, a few tenths of an inch at most are expected across the South Atlantic Region, most of the southern half of the Plains, and the southwestern quarter of the Lower-48. Temperatures should average generally below-normal from the Rockies westward, and above-normal from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast. Daily highs are expected to average 4 to 5 deg. F below normal from southeastern California through southern Idaho and eastern Oregon while readings top out 8 to 11 deg. F above normal on average across central and southern Texas and most of Maine.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook valid for October 21-25 favors heavier than normal precipitation across central and northern California, northwestern Nevada, and the Pacific Northwest. Chances for totals in the top one-third of historical occurrences exceed 60 percent west of the Cascades. Wetter than normal conditions are nominally favored across Hawaii, most of Alaska, southern sections of the Rockies and High Plains, central and western Texas, and from the Great Lakes through much of the mid-Atlantic Region and Northeast. Subnormal precipitation is more likely across central and northern sections of the Rockies and Great Plains as well as parts of the South Atlantic Region. Warmer than normal weather is expected from the northern Intermountain West to the Appalachians, plus much of the South Atlantic and Northeast. Southern Texas and most of Maine are most likely to experience warmer than normal weather. Unusually warm weather is also favored across the eastern half of Mainland Alaska and across Hawaii. Temperatures are expected to average closer to normal from the Rockies through the West Coast and across the Carolinas and Virginias. The central tier of Alaska is also expected to average near normal while subnormal temperatures are nominally favored across western Mainland Alaska.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/14)