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— Rising oil prices are complicating the Federal Reserve's rate outlook.
— The Trump administration's fiscal 2027 plan will signal priorities across labor, defense, health and housing.
— New trade probes could reset the post–Supreme Court tariff landscape. |
Agriculture—— More farm aid: President Trump pledged to request additional farm aid in an upcoming spending bill, which could bolster Republican plans for up to $15 billion in new ad hoc payments to farmers. USDA is still doling out $12 billion in Commodity Credit Corporation funds to farmers, but the economic outlook for agriculture remains bleak, compelling farm groups and lawmakers to press for more aid.
Trump also urged Congress to pass a long-delayed farm bill, which could help boost farmers’ bottom lines. However, it is not yet clear whether a pathway exists for the legislation, which is nearly three years overdue.
Any new farm aid would likely be attached to a supplemental funding request for the Iran war. That effort, however, faces complications as Congress remains deadlocked over the SAVE Act, which would tighten voter ID requirements, and over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. The president is also expected to send his budget request to Congress April 3, which could shed more light on any plans for future farm aid.
— Regulatory affairs: Nutrition advocates and school meal professionals are eagerly anticipating regulations that will seek to align the National School Meal program with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. The rules, which Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has said to expect this spring, could crack down on processed foods in schools and affect the amount of animal protein kids eat.
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has also said that the FDA will issue regulations to close the so-called loophole for food ingredients to qualify as “generally recognized as safe” and to define ultraprocessed foods.
— Sticker shock: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israel war against Iran has left farmers confronting high prices for fertilizer and diesel. Experts warn that prolonged disruption could broaden the impact across the agricultural economy. Aluminum prices — relevant to food supply chains — have already taken a hit and may continue to rise. Diesel costs, which have been rising faster than gas, could be the first cost increases passed through to grocery prices. — Marcia Brown |
Trade— Trade probes: The U.S. Trade Representative is launching two new investigations into trading partners could lay the groundwork for new U.S. tariffs to replace the ones the Supreme Court struck down in February.
USTR will collect feedback this month from governments, industry groups and businesses as part of probes into excess manufacturing capacity and forced labor across more than 60 countries, including major partners such as China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
USTR Jamieson Greer has set an April 15 deadline for written comments and requests to testify, with hearings on forced labor scheduled to begin April 28 and additional proceedings expected in early May.
The probes are being conducted under Section 301, which allows the administration to levy tariffs without congressional approval if it finds foreign practices to be discriminatory or harmful to U.S. commerce.
The investigation process is expected to take several months, even on an accelerated timeline, and additional investigations could be announced in the coming weeks. — Ari Hawkins, Daniel Desrochers |
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Financial Services— Fed rates: The Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee will meet on April 28-29 for its next interest rate decision. Its deliberations are in flux due to the war in the Middle East, which has pushed up oil prices and raised the risk of slower growth alongside higher inflation.
The meeting should be Jerome Powell's last as chair, but he has said he will stay on as chair pro tem if Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to lead the Fed, is not confirmed before Powell’s term ends in mid-May.
— Post-Iran economy: Many economists have assumed the economic shock from the Iran war would be short-lived, but the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk of lasting damage.
Major stock indexes have fallen, but private sector data on retail spending and airline data suggest that consumer behavior has been largely unaffected. That could shift if the labor market softens further or inflation accelerates.
The Labor Department is scheduled to provide its monthly employment update on April 3, and the consumer price index is to be released on April 10.
— Corporate reports: The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a landmark proposal in the coming weeks to shift corporate reporting in the U.S. to a semiannual model, a change that Trump has long pushed for.
The move is primed to reignite a long-standing debate over how to encourage longer-term thinking in C-suites across corporate America.
— Housing: With the White House’s 2027 budget request expected to land on Capitol Hill on April 3, the affordable housing industry is watching for signals of federal support.
Last year’s proposal sought to slash the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s discretionary spending by more than half and consolidating rental assistance programs into one state block grant. Those changes didn’t make it into this year’s final budget, but they reflected the administration’s push to restructure housing programs. — Cassandra Dumay, Victoria Guida, Declan Harty, Sam Sutton |
Tax— Tax Day watch: With April 15 approaching, much of the tax world is focused on the run-up to the filing deadline.
Lawmakers will be closely monitoring any issues taxpayers encounter in filing returns, as well as whether refunds grow as much as Republicans have projected.
IRS CEO Frank Bisignano is set to appear before the Senate Finance Committee on April 15, where he is expected to face a barrage of hostile questions from Democrats on issues ranging from staff cuts to the agency’s controversial agreement to share taxpayer info with the Department of Homeland Security. Republicans, meanwhile, will use the hearing to tout their signature tax cuts.
At the same time, Treasury will continue to work on regulations to implement the One Big Beautiful Bill, including the so-called Trump accounts for children.
On Capitol Hill, Republicans are weighing a second reconciliation package that could include additional tax changes. At the same time, and in an unusual split screen, lawmakers are also being watched for signs they can come together later this year on a relatively uncontroversial bipartisan tax package, including measures aimed at improving tax administration. — Brian Faler |
Employment and Immigration— Budget time: President Trump is expected to release his budget request for the Labor Department and other agencies in the coming days, providing an updated glimpse at his vision for workplace enforcement.
In last year’s proposal, Trump called for steep cuts across much of the department, including the elimination of the Job Corps training program and the Women’s Bureau.
Congress ultimately rejected the president’s effort to slash DOL’s funding by more than a third, and instead approved a slight increase to its discretionary budget in a deal struck earlier this year.
The National Labor Relations Board — long a target for Republicans — was less fortunate, though its $5 million budget cut was less than the White House requested.
While presidential budget documents typically don’t carry much weight on Capitol Hill, last year’s requests came on the heels of cuts driven by the Elon Musk-led DOGE initiative, which has since receded. This year’s requests could provide clues as to what, if anything, has changed. — Nick Niedzwiadek |
EducationAccreditation rulemaking: The Education Department has a lot of regulatory changes in store for college accreditors, the organizations that serve as the gatekeepers to the student loan program, during rulemaking this spring.
The Accreditation, Innovation, and Modernization, or AIM, committee, will consider proposals to increase competition among accreditors, lower barriers for new accreditors to enter the market and eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion standards, among other priorities. The committee will meet on April 13-17 and May 18-22.
During a public comment period last month at the National Advisory Committee on Institutional Quality and Integrity, higher education leaders — including a committee member — requested the department define to “diversity” in the upcoming rulemaking.
Members of NACIQI, which advises the department on accreditation recognition, also critiqued accreditors for having DEI policies at a two-day March meeting. Meanwhile, other committee members pointed out that DEI isn’t illegal and that there was no established definition for it.
When asked if the department has plans to define DEI at rulemaking, a spokesperson said: “Stay tuned.”
— Admissions survey decision: A federal judge is expected to rule on a bid from a group of Democratic attorneys general to stop the Trump administration from expanding the federal government’s collection of college admissions data.
Massachusetts District Court Judge Dennis Saylor, a George W. Bush appointee, has already temporarily blocked the Education Department from demanding the data from public universities in 17 states, but his restraining order is only in effect until April 6. Saylor said he intends to issue a preliminary injunction decision as soon as April 2.
The data collection is part of the administration’s crackdown on the use of race in college admissions and is designed to aid President Trump’s anti-diversity and meritocracy push.
The administration last year significantly expanded the scope of admissions information colleges must submit to the federal government, including granular data from colleges about the race and gender of their applicants, and admitted and enrolled students, as well as for specific graduate programs.
— Budget: Trump is expected to send his budget request for fiscal 2027 to Congress this month, outlining the administration’s education priorities.
Earlier this year, Congress largely rejected Trump’s initial budget request of his second term, which reflected his directive to shutter the Education Department through deep cuts and program consolidation. Education Secretary Linda McMahon is expected to appear before Congress this month to the fiscal 2027 budget. — Rebecca Carballo, Mackenzie Wilkes, Bianca Quilantan |
Defense— Defense budget debut: The Trump administration plans to roll out its 2027 budget on Friday, offering a first look at a Pentagon spending spike of roughly 50 percent.
Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have endorsed a whopping $1.5 trillion national defense budget but provided few details on how that money would be spent. Several big ticket Pentagon priorities could see massive investment, including Trump's Golden Dome missile defense shield, missile and air defense production and Navy shipbuilding.
But they face massive pushback in selling another budget buildup amid tough midterm campaigns for Republicans and no desire from Democrats to back additional spending after the GOP forced through a $150 billion defense hike last year.
It’s also unclear whether the administration will ask Republicans to use the reconciliation process again to push the budget through or if it will include a supplemental funding request for the Iran war, which could exceed $200 billion.
— War wary: Lawmakers will also face questions about the course of the military campaign against Iran when Congress returns this month from a two-week recess.
The agenda will almost certainly include more votes in the House and Senate on Democratic-led legislation to cut short U.S. military operations against Iran. Republicans have remained mostly united against those measures, but those dynamics could shift as the conflict drags out and the military and economic fallout spreads.
Senate and House Democrats have also called for hearings with Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the war. Top Republicans have rebuffed those calls, but the coming budget season means the Defense secretary and top military leaders, including the head of U.S. Central Command tasked with running the campaign, will soon testify on Capitol Hill. — Connor O’Brien |
Health Care— Tariff decision: It’s been nearly a year since the Trump administration kicked off a national security investigation into imports of pharmaceuticals and drug ingredients last April — and a key decision may be around the corner.
Under the law governing such investigations, it should be completed within 270 days, including the delivery of its results and recommendations to President Trump. He would then have 90 days to decide whether to accept the findings.
That means the deadline is fast approaching. If Trump decides to accept the recommendations, he would have 15 days to implement actions to address imports — and he would also have to inform Congress in writing within 30 days.
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Deputy Administrator Chris Klomp portrayed China at last week’s Conservative Political Action Conference as a threat to the U.S. biopharmaceutical industry, saying speedy innovation and intellectual property protections are needed. But it is unclear what role potential tariffs may play.
— Trump budget: The White House is expected to release its fiscal 2027 budget plan later this week.
That’s the first step in what will be a months-long process on Capitol Hill to determine how much money the Department of Health and Human Services gets in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1. Appropriations committees in the House and Senate will soon begin by hearing from health agency leaders and then write their own funding bills.
Lawmakers are likely to come up with something different than Trump proposes in part because appropriations bills must have bipartisan support in the Senate.
Trump last year proposed a 25 percent reduction in the HHS budget with deeper cuts at agencies like the National Institutes of Health and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Trump also proposed a broad reorganization of health department agencies. But months after the Sept. 30 deadline, Congress rejected those proposals in February, providing $116.6 billion in discretionary funds for HHS, a slight increase from fiscal 2025. — Health Care Pro Team |
Transportation— Shutdown’s TSA fallout: Transportation Security Administration officers have begun receiving paychecks following an emergency directive from President Trump aimed at preventing further staffing shortfalls during the ongoing DHS funding lapse.
Despite the move, the impact is already being felt: more than 500 screeners have left, and attrition continues to climb. Acting administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill warned lawmakers the agency may need to reassess staffing at airports ahead of the summer travel surge tied to the FIFA World Cup.
McNeill said it could take up to half a year to get new employees trained on certain proprietary machines — well after the World Cup festivities have already begun — ensuring that the pressure on the system will linger amid the travel demand.
— Probe begins on another air disaster: The National Transportation Safety Board has has opened an investigation into the fatal crash of an Air Canada jet at LaGuardia Airport earlier this month, the latest in a series of incidents raising concerns about aviation safety.
Both pilots were killed after the aircraft collided with a firetruck on the runway. While runway incursions have declined in recent years, officials say systemic risks remain. FAA Deputy Administrator Chris Rocheleau told POLITICO the incident could prompt another industry-wide “safety standdown” to address vulnerabilities.
The NTSB’s preliminary report into the LaGuardia crash is expected in April and will outline contributing factors, along with any immediate changes to air travel operations the board deems necessary. The full investigation will take about a year.
— Infrastructure delays likely: Momentum is fading for a long-term surface transportation reauthorization bill, with Congress increasingly likely to rely on a short-term extension ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline.
The legislation — which seeks input from eight committees — is being sidelined by higher-priority issues, including the partial government shutdown. T&I chair Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) recently announced he will not seek reelection, though lawmakers don’t believe his retirement should affect negotiations. The Trump administration has also given little indication that the bill is among its top priorities. — Oriana Pawlyk |
Technology— Data privacy: Several states are looking to keep momentum on privacy legislation this month.
The Maine Online Data Privacy Act cleared the House after amendments in March and now awaits a Senate vote as lawmakers propose amendments to align the bill with regulations enacted in other states.
In Vermont, the House of Representatives passed H.211 in late March. The bill would allow residents to send a single deletion request to all data brokers registered with the state. It’s now in the Senate, which has until the end of May to move the bill.
— Reconciliation, take two?: Republicans are gearing up for a possible second swing at passing party-line legislation through budget reconciliation, which could draw in tech and telecom priorities if it gains traction. Last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act ultimately was the vehicle for a sweeping GOP spectrum deal. Lawmakers also attempted, unsuccessfully, to attach a moratorium on state AI laws.
What could be included this time? Asked in late March about priorities, House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) pointed to permitting reform. “We’ve got to see what fits in reconciliation,” he told POLITICO, adding that changes to ease broadband deployment would likely be part of the push: “any way we can build.”
Such reforms would coincide with states beginning to deploy billions of dollars from the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program. Guthrie’s panel advanced several broadband permitting measures in December, although some drew Democratic opposition over concerns about overriding local sovereignty.
While speculation is buzzing about what reconciliation might contain, some lawmakers insist it’s early and aren’t even sure whether Commerce committees would be in a position to contribute, which would depend on how the Budget committees set up the bill.
“Not yet,” Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), who chairs the Commerce telecom subcommittee, when asked potential priorities. “I don’t know if they’ll even have instructions for Commerce this time.”
— AI PREEMPTION 3.0: House GOP leaders and the White House are ramping up efforts to codify Trump’s sweeping AI framework, as key Republican senators finalize a kids’ online safety package that could broach the thorny topic of federal preemption of state AI laws.
After two failed Republican-led attempts at passing a years-long moratorium on state and local AI laws, many industry and key lawmakers recognize that bipartisan support is needed to pass a single rulebook. Still, any AI legislation could be tacked onto a second must-pass reconciliation bill if standalone efforts falter.
Even some supporters of a national AI standard remain skeptical Congress can get it done, at least by the end of this year. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said his doubts stem from repeated failures to enact meaningful social media safeguards: “We did zippo,” he told POLITICO in late March, arguing that robust federal safety standards would be a prerequisite for preempting state laws.
Republicans are also divided on how to write AI regulations. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) introduced the TRUMP AMERICA AI Act which differs from the White House framework on issues including copyright protections and legal liability for content posted on tech platforms. — John Hendel, Alfred Ng and Gabby Miller |
Cybersecurity— Funding at risk: As Washington enters the spring budget cycle, lawmakers are preparing to review the administration’s fiscal 2027 proposal, which could include cuts to federal cyber programs.
The White House plans to send President Trump’s budget request for fiscal year 2027 to Congress on April 3. Last year’s proposal included nearly $500 million in cuts for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, though lawmakers reduced that number during negotiations.
— Operations under strain: The nation’s top cyber defense agency is also contending with the effects of a prolonged Department of Homeland Security shutdown, while key leadership nominations remain stalled in the Senate.
The shutdown continues to disrupt operations at CISA: roughly 40 percent of staff are working without pay, while others remain furloughed. Acting Director Nick Andersen told lawmakers last month that the shutdown has limited intelligence-sharing with partner agencies and could hinder security preparations for major events such as the upcoming FIFA World Cup.
The Senate, currently in recess, is expected to revisit two key cyber nominations later this month. Sean Plankey, Trump’s nominee to lead CISA, has faced delays despite prior committee approval, while the nomination of Adam Cassady as the State Department’s cyber ambassador has yet to receive a hearing.
The ambassador role has been vacant since January 2025, and the State Department’s cyber bureau has undergone significant reorganization, raising questions about the position’s future influence. — Maggie Miller |
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