Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/27)

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn 60% Harvested, Soybeans 79% Harvested as of Oct. 25

OMAHA (DTN) -- The nation's corn harvest remains behind its five-year average, while soybean harvest is running slightly ahead, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released Monday.

Fieldwork disruptions should remain minor this week, with scattered showers and mostly above-normal temperatures across much of the country, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Harvest progress: NASS estimated that 60% of corn had been harvested nationally as of Oct. 25, 6 percentage points behind the five-year average of 66%. DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery noted that harvest remains behind the average pace for late October, particularly in top-producing Iowa, where just 47% of the crop has been harvested compared to the state's five-year average of 67%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 56% of the crop remaining in fields was in good-to-excellent condition, steady with the previous week. Eighteen percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, 1 percentage point above the previous week's 17%.

SOYBEANS

-- Harvest progress: NASS estimated that 79% of soybeans had been harvested as of Sunday, 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 77%. Montgomery said, "The 2026 U.S. soybean harvest has staged an impressive comeback after a very late start in September and is now ahead of the usual pace for late October. Even Iowa and Nebraska, where delays were most severe, have made up considerable ground as weather conditions improved in October."

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting was estimated at 76% complete nationally, 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 77%. Montgomery said recent rainfall delayed planting, but producers have made progress, with top-producing Kansas now 80% planted.

-- Crop development: Winter wheat emerged was estimated at 53%, 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 54%.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Despite scattered showers and cooler temperatures in the Northern Plains, most of the country should experience favorable temperatures for fieldwork and winter crop establishment, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"It looks like there will be some disruptions to fieldwork this week, but they are more likely to be minor," Baranick said. "Still, there is a system that continues from the weekend across the Plains into the Upper Midwest for Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers will continue along the storm's path. We could even see a little snow developing in South Dakota on the backside of the system. Some moderate rainfall will be possible in other spots along the path as well. Behind that, a front will go across the northern tier of the country for Wednesday and Thursday and will produce scattered showers as well. And then at the end of the week, we may see some tropical moisture moving north into Texas on Friday, spreading out north and east through the weekend. The moisture should be more diffuse, so not a lot of heavy rain is forecast outside of Texas.

"So, all in all, there should be some disruption to fieldwork, but most areas of the country will continue to keep rolling. Some areas in the Plains that grow winter wheat will enjoy seeing some more rain. And we could get some showers to move into the drier southeastern quadrant of the country as well.

"Temperatures in parts of the Northern Plains may stay on the chilly side for much of the week, but the vast majority of the country will see temperatures above normal, favorable for both outdoor work and winter crop establishment."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn harvested	60	44	NA	66
Soybeans harvested	79	64	NA	77
Winter wheat planted	76	63	NA	77
Winter wheat emerged	53	39	NA	54
Cotton bolls opening	89	85	NA	92
Cotton harvested	52	41	NA	45
Sorghum mature	93	87	NA	97
Sorghum harvested	56	46	NA	69
Sugarbeets harvested	75	55	NA	74
Sunflowers harvested	46	24	NA	40
Peanuts harvested	51	39	NA	59

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	VP	P	F	G	E
Corn
This Week	6	12	26	43	13
Prev Week	5	12	27	43	13
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	5	10	26	46	13
Peanuts
This Week	2	14	34	44	6
Prev Week	2	12	34	47	5
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	2	8	32	51	7
Cotton
This Week	13	24	30	27	6
Prev Week	13	24	28	28	7
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	12	17	30	34	6

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/26)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 12 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	3568717 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/22)

Drought conditions improved across large areas of the U.S. this week, while deterioration extended from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the western Ohio River Valley. Temperatures averaged 2 to 6 degrees above normal across much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Northeast and West, with localized departures of 6 to 9 degrees. Near- to below-normal temperatures prevailed across portions of the southern Plains, Southwest and Southeast. Precipitation varied considerably, with much of the Pacific Coast, northern Plains and Southeast receiving less than 25% of normal rainfall, while portions of the central and southern Plains, Rockies and Upper Midwest received more than 200% of normal, locally exceeding 400%.

A powerful storm system brought heavy to excessive rainfall across portions of Texas and Oklahoma Oct. 13-15, with totals of 3 to 5 inches in the southeastern Texas Panhandle and localized amounts of 6 to 8 inches in western and central Oklahoma. The storm caused localized flooding and a record crest along the Middle Wichita River in northwestern Texas. Rainfall departures locally exceeded 6 inches above normal, providing substantial relief from prolonged dryness and supporting widespread drought improvements across Texas and Oklahoma. Additional improvements occurred across portions of Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico, where recent rain and mountain snow helped replenish soil moisture and ease short-term deficits. Localized improvements also occurred in Washington.

In contrast, drought intensified from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the western Ohio River Valley, particularly across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and southern Missouri, with localized degradations extending into Alabama, northern Georgia and the southern Midwest. Persistent 30- to 90-day precipitation deficits, depleted soil moisture and exceptionally low streamflows supported these changes. Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values, which measure dryness in the upper soil and vegetation layers, reached 700 to 800 in portions of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, indicating severe dryness and elevated wildfire potential.

Elsewhere, rainfall from the preceding week supported drought improvements across portions of Virginia, the Carolinas and Georgia. Localized improvements also occurred in the Northeast, although drought worsened slightly in northern Maine. Outside the Lower 48, drought improved in western and eastern Puerto Rico, while longer-term dryness persisted along the southern coast. Substantial rainfall eliminated the remaining abnormal dryness (D0) in Southeast Alaska, while drought persisted in the upper Tanana Valley. Conditions remained unchanged across Hawaii.

Northeast

Drought conditions generally improved across portions of the Northeast this week, particularly in New England, New York and New Jersey. Precipitation was unevenly distributed, providing localized relief from short-term dryness. Temperatures averaged near to below normal across Maine and coastal New England, while much of New York, Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic experienced temperatures 1 to 6 degrees above normal. Despite recent rainfall, significant precipitation deficits and below-normal groundwater and streamflow conditions persisted across portions of northern Maine and the Mid-Atlantic.

One-category improvements occurred across portions of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, western Massachusetts and northeastern Connecticut, where recent rainfall helped improve short-term conditions. Additional improvements occurred in New Jersey, although low groundwater levels continued to limit recovery in some areas. Maine was the only state in the region to experience deterioration, with a slight expansion of severe drought (D2) in the north amid persistent moisture shortages. Conditions remained unchanged across Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia and Rhode Island.

Southeast

Drought conditions improved across much of the Southeast this week, primarily reflecting the lingering benefits of heavy rainfall during the preceding week. Although precipitation during the current week was more limited and unevenly distributed, rainfall accumulated over the previous 14 to 21 days continued to ease short-term moisture deficits across portions of Virginia, the Carolinas and Georgia. Temperatures averaged 3 to 6 degrees above normal across much of Virginia and North Carolina, with localized departures of 6 to 9 degrees. Farther south, temperatures were generally near normal to 3 degrees above normal across South Carolina and Georgia, while portions of Alabama and Florida experienced near- to slightly below-normal temperatures. Despite recent rainfall, significant dryness persisted across western portions of the region. Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values remained around 600 to 800 across much of Alabama and northern Georgia, compared with values generally below 400 across eastern Virginia, the eastern Carolinas and northern Florida.

One-category improvements occurred across portions of Virginia, central and western North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, supported by improving short-term precipitation indicators and soil moisture conditions. However, localized drought degradations occurred across portions of Alabama, northern Georgia and coastal Virginia and North Carolina, where persistent rainfall deficits and declining soil moisture contributed to worsening drought severity. Elevated KBDI values across Alabama and northern Georgia provided additional evidence of continued dryness. In Florida, moderate drought (D1) was reduced locally in southwestern and southeastern portions of the state. However, moderate drought expanded in southeastern Florida, where longer-term precipitation deficits and low groundwater levels continued to support drought conditions.

South

Drought conditions varied considerably across the South this week, with substantial improvements across portions of Texas and Oklahoma contrasting with continued deterioration across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee. A powerful storm system brought heavy to excessive rainfall to the southern Plains Oct. 13-15, providing significant relief following prolonged hot and dry conditions during August and September. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches were reported across portions of the southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains, while localized totals reached 6 to 8 inches west of Oklahoma City (NWS Lubbock; NWS Weather Prediction Center). Oklahoma City recorded 4.99 inches by late afternoon Oct. 14 (NWS Norman), while Lubbock, Texas, received 2.04 inches during the storm period (NWS Lubbock). The heavy rainfall caused localized flooding and substantial rises in streams and rivers, including a record crest of 18.91 feet on the Middle Wichita River near Guthrie, Texas (NWS Lubbock). Improving precipitation indicators, soil moisture and streamflows supported widespread one-category improvements across western and northern Texas, the Texas Panhandle and much of Oklahoma, including reductions in exceptional drought (D4). However, accumulated moisture deficits limited more widespread drought removal.

In contrast, drought intensified across other portions of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, where rainfall remained insufficient to offset prolonged deficits. Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values reached approximately 700 to 800 in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, indicating severe dryness. Extreme drought (D3) expanded across northern Arkansas, while exceptional drought (D4) developed or expanded across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Worsening 30-, 60- and 90-day precipitation indicators, severely depleted soil moisture and exceptionally low streamflows supported these changes. Agricultural impact reports also documented worsening conditions across Arkansas. Additional drought expansion and intensification occurred across Mississippi and Tennessee, where persistent moisture shortages continued to affect agricultural and hydrologic conditions.

Midwest

Drought conditions were mixed across the Midwest this week, with localized improvements and degradations concentrated in the southern portion of the region. Precipitation was widespread but unevenly distributed, with much of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan receiving approximately 0.25 to 1.5 inches of rain and locally higher amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches. Farther south, rainfall generally ranged from 0.5 to 2 inches across portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. Although the rainfall provided localized relief, accumulated precipitation deficits and lingering moisture shortages continued to affect portions of the region, particularly northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

One-category improvements occurred across portions of Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky, where recent rainfall helped ease short-term moisture deficits and improve soil moisture conditions. However, localized degradations also occurred across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky, particularly in areas that missed the heavier rainfall or continued to experience substantial precipitation deficits. The most significant deterioration occurred across southern Missouri, where extreme drought (D3) expanded along the Arkansas border. Across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan, drought conditions remained largely unchanged, as recent precipitation helped stabilize short-term conditions but was insufficient to overcome longer-term moisture deficits.

High Plains

Drought conditions generally improved across portions of the central and southern High Plains this week, while no changes occurred across the northern Plains. Temperatures averaged 2 to 6 degrees above normal across much of the Dakotas and eastern Wyoming, with locally higher departures. Farther south, temperatures ranged from near to slightly above normal across portions of Nebraska, eastern Colorado and northern Kansas to 2 to 4 degrees below normal across southern Kansas. Precipitation varied considerably, with much of North Dakota and northern South Dakota receiving less than 25% of normal rainfall. In contrast, portions of eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas received more than 200% of normal precipitation, locally exceeding 400%[EC1.1]. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches were common across portions of the central High Plains, including 1 to 1.5 inches in central Nebraska and more than an inch in parts of the northern Nebraska Panhandle. Portions of eastern Wyoming received approximately 0.75 to 1.25 inches.

One-category improvements occurred across portions of eastern Wyoming, eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas, where recent precipitation helped reduce short-term moisture deficits and improve soil moisture conditions. In Nebraska, improvements were concentrated across central, south-central and northeastern portions of the state, while additional improvements occurred across southern Kansas. The only degradation in the region occurred in northeastern Colorado, where persistent moisture deficits supported a localized increase in drought severity. Longer-term deficits also continued to limit recovery across portions of eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska and western South Dakota. No changes occurred across North Dakota and South Dakota, where precipitation during the current week was limited. However, moisture received during preceding weeks helped maintain existing drought conditions despite continued precipitation deficits and above-normal temperatures.

West

Drought conditions improved across portions of the West this week, with no deterioration reported. Temperatures averaged 2 to 6 degrees above normal across much of the Pacific Northwest, California, the Great Basin and the northern Rockies, with isolated areas reaching 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Farther south, temperatures were generally near to slightly below normal across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Precipitation was limited across much of Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Idaho and Montana, where many areas received less than 25% of normal precipitation, including some areas receiving less than 5% of normal. In contrast, portions of Utah, western Colorado and Wyoming received more than 200% of normal precipitation, with localized amounts exceeding 400% of normal. A storm system brought rain and high-elevation snow to portions of the Rockies on Oct. 14-15, with reported snowfall totals of 4.3 inches at Silver Lake Brighton, Utah, and 3 inches near Evanston, Wyoming, on Oct. 14 (NOAA snowfall).

Localized one-category improvements occurred in Washington, while no changes occurred across Oregon, California, Nevada, Idaho and Montana. Persistent streamflow shortages continued to affect portions of Idaho, while low surface water levels and long-term moisture deficits limited recovery in southeastern Montana. Farther south, one-category improvements occurred across portions of western and central Wyoming, the Colorado Rockies, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. In Wyoming and Colorado, recent rain and mountain snow helped ease short-term moisture deficits. In Utah, improvements extended across portions of the Wasatch Front, central mountains and southeastern Utah, supported by recent precipitation and improving short-term drought indicators. In Arizona, improvements were concentrated across portions of the central mountains and eastern Arizona, while repeated rainfall in recent weeks supported additional improvements across central and southern New Mexico. Despite these changes, long-term hydrologic drought persisted across portions of the Colorado River and Rio Grande basins. On Oct. 20, Lake Powell held approximately 5.3 million acre-feet of water, or about 22% of capacity, while reservoir storage along the Rio Grande remained exceptionally low (Bureau of Reclamation).

Caribbean

Drought conditions continued to improve across portions of Puerto Rico this week following additional rainfall and the lingering benefits of precipitation during recent weeks. Rainfall was unevenly distributed, with the most beneficial moisture affecting portions of western and eastern Puerto Rico and the nearby islands. Improving 30- to 60-day precipitation indicators, soil moisture conditions and streamflows supported additional drought relief. However, longer-term precipitation deficits persisted across portions of the southern coastal plains and interior, where groundwater shortages and low reservoir levels continued to indicate lingering hydrologic drought.

One-category improvements occurred across portions of western and eastern Puerto Rico, including localized areas of Vieques and Culebra, where recent rainfall helped reduce short-term moisture deficits. Despite these improvements, drought persisted across portions of southern Puerto Rico, where longer-term precipitation deficits and groundwater shortages continued to limit recovery. Low reservoir storage in the Río de la Plata Basin also remained a concern, supporting the retention of existing drought classifications in affected areas.

With the Atlantic tropical basin remaining quiet, showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands were mostly scattered, light, and disorganized. Impacts from a 5-month drought continued to mount across the territory, with serious effects on agriculture (crop stress, animal mortality), vegetation health, soil moisture, and groundwater reserves. A few areas, mainly on St. Croix, received more than an inch of rain during the drought-monitoring period ending October 20, although several locations throughout the territory netted one-quarter inch or less. This is usually the wettest time of year in the U.S. Virgin Islands, with many locations typically receiving more than 40 percent of their normal annual rainfall during autumn (September-November). St. Thomas has been in exceptional drought since September 22 and has spent 5 weeks in D4 status. St. John and St. Croix have spent 15 consecutive weeks in extreme drought (D3), with just enough rain falling to prevent further deterioration. Depth to water at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Susannaberg DPW 3 well on St. John recently increased to more than 19.4 feet, compared to about 7.7 feet at the same time a year ago.

Pacific

Drought conditions improved across Southeast Alaska this week, where substantial rainfall during recent weeks provided relief from lingering moisture deficits. Temperatures averaged approximately 2 to 6 degrees above normal across portions of the Interior and Southcentral Alaska. Precipitation was unevenly distributed, with generally light amounts across much of the Interior and heavier rainfall across portions of Southcentral and Southeast Alaska, where localized totals exceeded 2 inches.

The remaining abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from Southeast Alaska following substantial rainfall and improving moisture conditions. However, moderate drought (D1) persisted in the upper Tanana Valley of eastern Alaska, where longer-term moisture deficits continued to support existing drought conditions.

Conditions remained unchanged across Hawaii this week. Temperatures averaged within 0.5 degrees of normal across most of the state, with slightly below-normal temperatures across Oahu, Molokai and Maui and slightly above-normal temperatures across Kauai, Lanai and the Big Island. Moderate to breezy trade winds prevailed during the week, with passing easterly waves bringing periods of enhanced showers to windward and mountainous areas, particularly Oct. 16-19 (NWS Honolulu). Precipitation was generally 0.5 to 1 inch below normal across leeward portions of the islands, while windward areas received slightly above-normal rainfall. Portions of the windward Big Island received 1 to 2 inches more than normal. No changes occurred with abnormal dryness (D0) persisting across leeward portions of the Big Island. The remainder of the state remained free of drought and abnormal dryness.

Tropical Cyclone Champi passed just south of the Marianas, with Guam narrowly avoiding a direct strike from the super typhoon. Guam International Airport clocked a peak easterly wind gust to 83 mph on October 18, while about 130 miles to the north, Saipan International Airport recorded a southeasterly gust to 56 mph. Nearly 5 inches of rain fell at Guam International Airport before, during, and after Champi’s near-miss. Meanwhile, variable showers dotted the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). The RMI remained free of drought and abnormal dryness, with higher weekly rainfall amounts (more than 3 inches) occurring at Majuro and Wotje. Majuro’s reservoir storage topped 39 million gallons by October 12, up from 36 million gallons earlier in the month. In the FSM, Kapingamarangi remained in moderate drought (D1), having received little rain in 7 of the last 9 weeks. Drought-related impacts on Kapingamarangi included crop stress, limited soil moisture availability, and reduced storage in water tanks. The remainder of the FSM, except Lukunor, was experiencing neither drought nor abnormal dryness. However, abnormal dryness (D0) was introduced for Lukunor, as little rain has fallen for 5 consecutive weeks. Finally, abnormal dryness (D0) persisted across the Republic of Palau and in American Samoa. Palau has been either abnormally dry (D0) or in moderate drought (D1) each week starting August 18, 2026. Similarly, D0 or D1 has been present each week in American Samoa from August 25 to present, with rainfall so far this month at Pago Pago International Airport totaling less than 2 inches. Some other locations in American Samoa have fared slightly better, although recent rain at a pair of National Park Service sites (Toa Ridge and Siufaga Ridge) has not completed erased dryness-related concerns.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five days (Oct. 22-27), the Weather Prediction Center’s quantitative precipitation forecast shows widespread precipitation across parts of the central and southern Rockies, particularly Colorado and northern New Mexico, where widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, with localized amounts of 5 or more inches. Father west, widespread precipitation is forecast across the Intermountain West and Pacific Coast, including Washington, Oregon and California, with totals generally ranging from 0.5 to 2 inches and locally higher amounts in mountainous areas. Across the Southwest, precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona, Utah and New Mexico, while southern California and the lower deserts will remain relatively dry. East of the Rockies, 0.5 to 2 inches is expected across portions of the central and northern Plains, with heavy precipitation of up to 3 to 5 inches expected from western Texas and the Panhandle, eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma’s Panhandle and southwestern Kansas. Much of the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast are expected to remain dry. Additional rainfall is expected across the southern and Atlantic coasts of Florida, while the heaviest precipitation associated with an offshore weather system is expected to remain over the Atlantic Ocean.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook (Oct. 26-30) favors above-normal temperatures across much of the southern two-thirds of the Lower 48, including California, the Southwest, central and southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The highest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are centered across portions of the Southwest, southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, where continued warmth could increase evaporative demand and reinforce existing moisture deficits in the areas that miss significant rainfall. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored along the Canadian border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains and across portions of northern New England. Near-normal temperatures are strongly favored across Alaska and most of Hawaii.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook (Oct. 26-30) favors above-normal precipitation across a broad area extending from California and the Southwest through portions of Arizona, New Mexico and western Texas. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across the Florida Peninsula and portions of coastal Georgia and South Carolina. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley, Appalachians and Northeast. Below-normal precipitation is also favored across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Southeast Alaska, while above-normal precipitation is favored across much of mainland Alaska and Hawaii.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (10/20)

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report - Corn 44% Harvested, Soybeans 64% Harvested as of Oct. 18

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. corn and soybean harvests remain slightly behind their five-year averages, though soybean progress has nearly caught up, trailing the average by just 1 percentage point, according to USDA NASS's weekly Crop Progress report released Monday.

Most producers can expect sunny skies, warm temperatures and good conditions for fieldwork this week, while showers in the West may help drought and increase soil moisture, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn mature was pegged at 95%, 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 96%. DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini noted that Michigan and Ohio are lagging, with Michigan at 62% mature and Ohio at 78%.

-- Harvest progress: NASS estimated that 44% of corn had been harvested nationally as of Oct. 18, 8 percentage points behind the five-year average of 52%. Mantini said Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa are lagging well behind average, with harvest progress at 13%, 15% and 26%, respectively.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated that 56% of the crop remaining in fields was in good-to-excellent condition, steady with the previous week. Seventeen percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, also steady with the previous week.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans dropping leaves were pegged at 96%, 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 97%.

-- Harvest progress: NASS estimated that 64% of soybeans had been harvested as of Sunday, 1 percentage point behind the five-year average of 65%. Mantini said harvest progress remains well behind the average pace in Michigan, Nebraska and Iowa, where 37%, 52% and 57% of soybeans have been harvested.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting was estimated at 63% complete nationally, 6 percentage points behind the five-year average of 69%. Mantini noted that planting in top-producing Kansas was 60% complete, compared with the state's five-year average of 69%, while Oklahoma was 37% planted, 22 percentage points behind its five-year average of 59%.

-- Crop development: Winter wheat emerged was estimated at 39%, 4 percentage points behind the five-year average 43%.

THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

Sunny skies and warm temperatures will provide a great week for producers to get fieldwork done across much of the country, though showers will bring beneficial moisture to the West and could slow work in some areas, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

"This will be a great week of weather for most producers to get out and do all the work they can," Baranick said. "Widespread high pressure east of the Rockies will produce a lot of sunny skies, warm temperatures, and good conditions to do fieldwork including harvest, tillage, fertilizer application, or winter planting. However, an upper-level trough is moving into the West where showers will be widespread throughout most of the week. That should help with drought and increasing soil moisture for those folks, but will make it difficult to get work done. The system will move into the Northern Plains on Friday. Winds should pick up around the system and so should scattered showers. As the system moves north into Canada, the front will stretch out across the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest for the weekend where showers will likely continue. The forecast isn't calling for much heavy rain, so this would be more of a nuisance and a slight delay rather than bog down producers again."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn mature	95	91	NA	96
Corn harvested	44	33	NA	52
Soybeans dropping leaves	96	92	NA	97
Soybeans harvested	64	46	NA	65
Winter wheat planted	63	51	NA	69
Winter wheat emerged	39	27	NA	43
Cotton bolls opening	85	82	NA	89
Cotton harvested	41	31	NA	37
Sorghum mature	87	80	NA	92
Sorghum harvested	46	40	NA	58
Rice harvested	97	92	NA	93
Sugarbeets harvested	55	32	NA	57
Sunflowers harvested	24	14	NA	26
Peanuts harvested	39	29	NA	46

**

National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	VP	P	F	G	E
Corn
This Week	5	12	27	43	13
Prev Week	5	12	27	44	12
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	5	10	26	46	13
Peanuts
This Week	2	12	34	47	5
Prev Week	2	11	33	48	6
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	2	8	32	51	7
Cotton
This Week	13	24	28	28	7
Prev Week	12	24	30	28	6
Prev Year	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
DTN 5-Yr Avg	12	17	30	34	6

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (10/19)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 10 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	3648427 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF

This Week's Drought Summary (10/15)

Drought conditions changed considerably across the U.S. this week. Heavy rain and early-season snow brought relief to parts of the West and Southeast, while unusually warm and dry weather continued to worsen drought across portions of the Midwest and South. In the West, a strong storm system combined with moisture from the remains of Hurricane Rachel, bringing rain and mountain snow to parts of the region. Snowfall totals reached 11 inches near Philipsburg, Montana, and nearly 10 inches at Great Falls, Montana, while rain and snow also affected portions of Idaho, Wyoming and Utah. Additional precipitation across the Southwest helped improve drought conditions in parts of Arizona, New Mexico and the Rockies. Despite these improvements, significant drought persisted across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.

Farther east, temperatures averaged 8 to 16 degrees above normal across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Combined with limited rainfall, the unusual warmth contributed to worsening drought across Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A broader area of drought deterioration extended from southern Illinois and Indiana through Missouri and Kentucky into the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee. Some of the most significant deteriorations occurred across southwestern Missouri, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, where persistent warmth and rainfall deficits continued to intensify drought conditions. In contrast, recent rainfall supported localized improvements across western and northern Texas, including portions of the Texas Panhandle.

The Southeast experienced some of the week's most widespread improvements as Hurricane Isaias brought heavy rainfall to the region, with totals exceeding 12 inches in parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Although the rainfall caused localized flooding, it also helped ease drought from Virginia through the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida, with some locations improving by more than one drought category. In the Northeast, drought changes were mixed and largely depended on where precipitation fell. Areas receiving beneficial rainfall experienced localized improvements, while drought persisted or worsened in locations that missed the heavier precipitation.

Northeast

Drought conditions were mixed across the Northeast this week, with improvements across the Mid-Atlantic and portions of southern New England contrasting with deterioration farther north. A storm system brought widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and West Virginia, with localized totals exceeding 4 inches in the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. Rainfall exceeded 200 percent of normal across much of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, easing short-term deficits and supporting one-category improvements in portions of Maryland and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. Abnormal dryness (D0) was also reduced in portions of southern New England. However, lingering long-term deficits and groundwater shortages limited improvements across southern New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula.

Farther north, precipitation remained below normal across much of northern New England, with portions of Maine receiving less than 50 percent of normal rainfall. Persistent short- to long-term deficits supported expansion of severe drought (D2) in northern Maine and moderate drought (D1) in northern Vermont, while extreme drought (D3) was trimmed slightly along the eastern Maine coast. Abnormal dryness also expanded locally in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees above normal across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Pennsylvania and western New York, with localized departures of 4 to 6 degrees. Southern New England experienced near-normal temperatures, while northern New England was generally near or below normal, with portions of Maine averaging 2 to 4 degrees below normal.

Southeast

Drought conditions improved substantially across much of the Southeast as widespread heavy rainfall brought relief to areas that had experienced weeks of hot and dry weather. Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida, on Oct. 9 before moving inland through Alabama. The storm brought abundant tropical moisture across the region, producing heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle through Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Additional showers and thunderstorms developed along a weather front extending across Georgia and northern Florida, while moist air moving over the southern Appalachians produced locally heavier rainfall. Some of the heaviest rainfall occurred across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Preliminary rainfall totals from Oct. 9-10 included 12.47 inches near Caney Creek, Florida, 12.43 inches at DeFuniak Springs, Florida, 9.65 inches at Shalimar, Florida, 7.81 inches northeast of Tallahassee, Florida, and 7.52 inches at Destin, all in Florida. Farther north, Bellwood, Alabama, recorded 12.97 inches, while Kinston, Alabama, received 7.27 inches. In Georgia, Griffin recorded 4.09 inches, with 3.40 inches was reported near Thomasville (Weather Prediction Center). Heavy rainfall also extended into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians, causing localized flash flooding and rising rivers. Flooding affected portions of the western Florida Panhandle and the Carolinas, including areas along the Broad and Congaree rivers in South Carolina. Temperatures varied throughout the week, with widespread cloud cover and rainfall keeping daytime temperatures cooler in areas affected by the storm. However, locations that missed the heaviest rainfall continued to experience dry conditions following an unusually warm September.

The widespread precipitation supported substantial drought improvements across Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Florida. In Virginia, localized improvements occurred across northern and western portions of the state, including the New River and Roanoke valleys, where recent rainfall helped ease short-term moisture deficits. Farther south, improvements were widespread across western and central North Carolina, where severe drought (D2) and extreme drought (D3) were reduced and exceptional drought (D4) was removed. Improvements extended across the Upstate, Midlands and portions of the Coastal Plain in South Carolina, where heavy rainfall helped replenish soil moisture and reduce precipitation deficits. Farther south, widespread improvements also occurred across Georgia and Alabama, particularly in areas that received several inches of rain. Florida experienced substantial drought relief, with widespread improvements across northern and central portions of the state and additional localized improvements farther south. Despite the widespread relief, drought persisted in areas that received less precipitation or continued to experience longer-term moisture shortages.

South

Drought conditions were mixed across the South, with localized improvements in portions of Texas, Mississippi and Tennessee contrasting with widespread deterioration across the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Hurricane Isaias largely missed the region, with its precipitation only brushing portions of the Alabama-Mississippi border and leaving much of the drought-affected area without meaningful rainfall. Persistent precipitation deficits, unusually warm temperatures and elevated evaporative demand contributed to further drying across the region. These conditions followed record-breaking September warmth, when Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana experienced their warmest September in 132 years of records, while Tennessee and Mississippi recorded their second- and third-warmest Septembers, respectively (NCEI).

Drought deterioration was concentrated along and near the Mississippi River Valley, extending from eastern Texas and southern Louisiana northward through central Mississippi, Arkansas and west-central Tennessee. Continued precipitation deficits and depleted soil moisture contributed to the expansion and intensification of drought, particularly across Arkansas and northern Louisiana, where exceptional drought (D4) expanded. In contrast, localized improvements occurred across western Texas, including portions of the Texas Panhandle near the New Mexico and Oklahoma borders, where lingering benefits from precipitation during preceding weeks supported reductions in drought severity. Additional improvements occurred across north-central Texas near the Oklahoma border. Farther east, localized improvements in Mississippi and Tennessee were associated with rainfall from Hurricane Isaias, although precipitation was insufficient to provide widespread relief across the lower Mississippi Valley.

Midwest

Drought conditions generally persisted or worsened across the Midwest, with localized improvements in parts of the region. Temperatures averaged above normal throughout the Midwest, generally ranging from 4 to 12 degrees above normal across much of the Midwest, with the greatest departures across Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri, where some areas were 12 to 16 degrees above normal. The combination of unusually warm temperatures and limited rainfall maintained elevated evaporative demand and contributed to further drying across areas already experiencing drought. Most of the region received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation, with widespread areas receiving less than 25 percent of normal. Localized rainfall occurred across portions of Iowa, Minnesota and northern Michigan, but amounts were generally insufficient to support drought improvements.

Drought conditions intensified across northern and central Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where persistent short- and mid-term precipitation deficits, low streamflows and depleted soil moisture supported the expansion of severe drought (D2) and extreme drought (D3). In central Wisconsin, deterioration extended southward, reflecting worsening conditions across much of the northern and central portions of the state. Additional degradations occurred across southern Illinois, southern Indiana, Missouri and portions of Kentucky, where continued rainfall deficits and above-normal temperatures contributed to worsening drought conditions. The most significant deterioration occurred in southwestern Missouri, where exceptional drought (D4) was introduced following prolonged hot and dry conditions and increasing short- and mid-term moisture deficits. Elsewhere, drought conditions remained largely unchanged across Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio and Lower Michigan, where recent precipitation provided little meaningful relief from existing deficits.

High Plains

Drought conditions remained largely unchanged across the High Plains, with localized improvements across portions of North Dakota, Wyoming and Colorado and limited deterioration in Kansas. Temperatures averaged 8 to 16 degrees above normal, with locally greater departures. The unusually warm conditions increased evaporative demand and contributed to continued moisture losses, particularly where precipitation was limited. Most of the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas received little precipitation during the week, with widespread areas recording less than 25 percent of normal. Localized precipitation occurred across portions of Wyoming and Colorado, but amounts were generally insufficient to produce widespread drought relief.

Localized improvements in North Dakota were supported by precipitation received during the current and preceding weeks, which helped ease short- and mid-term moisture deficits. Elsewhere, drought conditions remained largely unchanged across South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and much of the eastern plains of Wyoming and Colorado, where a lack of meaningful precipitation and lingering longer-term deficits supported existing classifications. In Kansas, localized degradations occurred across eastern border with Missouri, where continued dryness and above-normal temperatures contributed to worsening short-term conditions. Despite these changes, significant drought persisted across portions of the western High Plains, particularly in Wyoming and Colorado, where longer-term precipitation deficits and soil moisture shortages continued to limit recovery.

West

Drought conditions improved across portions of the West, with the most widespread improvements occurring across the Southwest and Intermountain West. A strong upper-level storm system interacting with moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rachel brought beneficial precipitation to portions of the region Oct. 10–12. According to the National Hurricane Center, Rachel dissolved over the southwestern U.S. on Oct. 11, although its remnants continued to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Southwest. The storm system also brought early-season snow to portions of the northern Rockies, including Montana and higher elevations of Idaho, Wyoming and Utah. Temperatures were unusually warm ahead of the storm across portions of the northern Rockies before falling sharply as colder air moved into the region. In Great Falls, Montana, temperatures reached the lower 80s ahead of the storm before dropping into the upper 30s during its passage (NWS Great Falls, Montana). Farther south, Idaho Falls, Idaho, recorded a high of 47 degrees on Oct. 13, approximately 14 degrees below normal (NWS Pocatello, Idaho).

Significant snowfall occurred across portions of Montana Oct. 10–12, with reported totals including 11 inches at Black Pine SNOTEL near Philipsburg, Montana, 9.7 inches at Great Falls Airport in Montana, 9 inches near Bearmouth and 8 inches near Anaconda and Livingston, Montana. Higher-elevation observations included 1.50 inches of snow-water equivalent at Black Pine SNOTEL and 0.80 inches at Barker Lakes SNOTEL (NWS Missoula, Montana). In eastern Idaho, Idaho Falls recorded 1.30 inches of precipitation from Oct. 10–13, including 0.87 inches on Oct. 11 (NWS Pocatello, Idaho). Rain and higher-elevation snow also affected portions of Wyoming and Utah, while precipitation reached parts of Colorado and the Southwest. In contrast, much of the Pacific Northwest and portions of California remained relatively dry.

Drought improvements were concentrated across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming, where recent precipitation and improving short- and mid-term moisture conditions supported localized reductions in drought severity. In northern New Mexico, extreme drought (D3) was reduced, while portions of Utah experienced reductions in severe drought (D2) and extreme drought (D3). Additional improvements occurred across western and north-central Montana and portions of Idaho, where rain and mountain snow helped ease existing moisture deficits. In Arizona, localized improvements continued following substantial drought relief during the preceding week, although longer-term deficits persisted. Elsewhere, drought conditions remained largely unchanged across Washington, Oregon, California and much of Nevada. Despite these improvements, significant drought persisted across portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and northern Rockies.

Caribbean

Drought conditions continued to improve across Puerto Rico this week, following additional rainfall that built on wetter conditions during previous weeks. Rainfall was uneven, with generally 0.5 to 2 inches across much of the island and localized totals of 2 to 4 inches, while temperatures averaged 1 to 3 degrees above normal at many reporting stations. Widespread improvements were made across eastern, western-interior and northwestern Puerto Rico, including reductions in drought severity and removal of abnormal dryness (D0) in portions of the east. Improvements were supported by wetter 30- to 60-day precipitation conditions, streamflows returning toward normal across eastern Puerto Rico and recovering reservoir levels. However, 90- to 120-day precipitation deficits persisted across the southern plains and Río de la Plata Basin, where rainfall remained insufficient to overcome longer-term deficits. Extreme drought (D3) and severe drought (D2) remained in portions of the southern plains, while critically low groundwater levels in the south-southeast and continued reservoir concerns in the Río de la Plata Basin limited additional improvements.

Early in the drought week (Wed, Oct 7 – Tue, Oct 13, 2026) a tropical wave passed south of the USVI, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. By Friday, warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker-than-average lapse rates largely capped the atmosphere, resulting in fewer showers and storms. On Saturday, an induced surface trough and its moisture field (with precipitable water values of about 2 inches) moved in from the east-northeast, resulting in fast-moving showers. This was followed by a retrograding mid- to upper-level trough which suppressed shower activity across the islands. By Tuesday, the lingering mid- to upper-level trough was west and southwest of the region, accompanied by slow-moving showers and thunderstorms, and increased lightning and flood threats. Satellite-based (NASA SPoRT GPM IMERG) 7-day rainfall ending at Oct 13, 1200 UTC indicated rainfall amounts were generally an inch or less.

At St. Croix, weekly rainfall measurements ranged from a maximum of 2.35 inches (6 days of data) at: VI-SC-34 (Frederiksted 1.9 NE) to a minimum of 0.78-inch at VI-SC-10 (Christiansted 1.6 E). Between these two “bookend” values, rainfall totals in descending order included: 2.15 inches at VI-SC-29 (Frederiksted 2.5 NNE), 2.11 inches (6 days) at VI-SC-35 (Frederiksted 1.3 ENE), 1.97 inches (6 days) at station VI-SC-32 (Frederiksted 1.9 NNW), 1.65 inches (5 days) at VI-SC-25 (Christiansted 4.4 W), 1.58 inches at VI-SC-20 (Frederiksted 1.7 ESE), 1.50 inches at VI-SC-23 (Christiansted 6.5 W), 1.31 inches (5 days) at station VI-SC-37 (Frederiksted 5.6 E), 1.23 inches (5 days) at VI-SC-24 (Christiansted 2.1 ENE), and 1.01 inches of rain at VI-SC-30 (Christiansted 1.7 SW). The USGS Adventure 28 Well water level ranged from 26.38 feet to 28.50 feet below the land surface during this period. At East Hill (672560) the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) values at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12-months were: -1.01, -1.89, -2.24, -1.38, and -1.48 (respectively). The 1-month value of -1.01 is particularly telling, and lends support for maintaining D3-S conditions at St. Croix this week, despite the worsening trend in recent weeks.

Like St. Croix, St. John also received much-needed rain this week, spread out across several days. Amounts ranged from a maximum of 1.48 inches (6 days) at VI-SJ-5 (Cruz Bay 1.6 E) to a minimum of 0.64-inch (5 days) at VI-SJ-8 (Cruz Bay 7.4 E). Intermediate precipitation totals included 1.31 inches at Windswept Beach (VI-SJ-3; its total for the month of September is 2.63 inches), 1.10 inches (only 3 days of data) at VI-SJ-11 (Coral Bay 0.7 NW), and 0.73-inch at VI-SJ-10 (Cruz Bay 3.1 NNW). The water level at the USGS Susannaberg Dpw 3 Well ranged from 19.35 feet to 19.45 feet below the land surface this week. At Windswept Beach, the SPI values at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12-months were: -1.51, -1.82, -2.16, -1.32, and -1.48, respectively. Though the 1-month SPI value is more serious compared to the -1.01 value at St. Croix, it still favors postponing degradation of the drought category this week at St. John (therefore maintaining D3-S conditions).

At St. Thomas, only two precipitation measurements were available this week in CoCoRaHS. Station VI-ST-15 (Charlotte Amalie West 1.3 N) reported 0.83-inch of rain (5 days), and VI-ST-5 (Charlotte Amalie West 4.2 WNW) came in with 0.58-inch of rain (4 days). The water level at the USGS Grade School 3 Well ranged from 8.96 feet to 9.85 feet below the land surface, which helps to corroborate the D4-S conditions still entrenched at St. Thomas.

Pacific

Drought conditions improved slightly across Alaska this week. Precipitation was generally light across much of the Interior, while portions of Southcentral and Southeast Alaska received heavier rainfall, with localized totals exceeding 2 inches. Recent precipitation supported a small reduction in abnormal dryness (D0) in the eastern Interior. Abnormal dryness (D0) was also removed from portions of the southern Alaska Panhandle. Although short-term precipitation conditions improved, lingering deficits at longer timescales continued to support abnormal dryness (D0) in portions of the central and northern Panhandle. Remaining drought classifications were unchanged.

Drought conditions remained unchanged across Hawaii this week. Rainfall was generally uneven, with trade-wind showers favoring windward and higher-elevation areas, while leeward locations received limited precipitation. Temperatures remained warm, with daytime highs generally in the 80s at lower elevations and locally reaching the lower 90s. Despite continued dryness along portions of the leeward Big Island, conditions did not warrant additional drought expansion. Abnormal dryness (D0) remained confined to the leeward Big Island, while the other islands stayed drought-free.

A rather complex and frequently changing weather pattern dominated the region of the USAPI this past drought week (Wed, Oct 7 - Tue, Oct 13, 2026). Some noteworthy features included the monsoon trough, surface convergence zones, Invests 95W and 96W, distant Typhoon Koguma (27W), and tropical ridging. Koguma remained over northern parts of the USAPI domain, primarily affecting marine areas with longer-period ocean swells, and exited Guam’s area of responsibility to the north on Sunday. Across Micronesia, the monsoon trough was a dominant feature, though displaced a bit to the north. Invest 96W, over northern portions of eastern Micronesia, was slow to organize this week, but brought heavier rainfall amounts (1-4 inches) to the region. South of the equator, surface high pressure located south of American Samoa maintained breezy east-southeast trades to the territory, as a trough to the north allowed moisture to remain embedded within the trade wind flow during this period.

NASA SPoRT (GPM IMERG) satellite-based rainfall totals for the past 7-days ending 12 UTC on 13 Oct indicate much of the USAPI domain received an inch or less of rain, with central Micronesia seeing little if any precipitation. The heavier amounts (1-4 inches) fell over a relatively circular region centered over northern portions of eastern Micronesia, associated with Invest 96W, and also in the vicinity of Guam. Generally, a half-inch or less of rain was indicated over American Samoa this past drought week.

Over Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), precipitation amounts ranged from 9.21 inches at Guam down to 1.93 inches at the Rota Airport. Other totals included Tinian (2.85 inches, 5 days), Dededo (2.51 inches, 6 days), and Saipan International Airport (2.40 inches, only 3 days of data). All stations remain free of dryness and drought this week, having easily surpassed the minimum weekly rainfall (1-inch) needed to meet most water needs.

In the Republic of Palau, rainfall amounts this past week were light, with an even half-inch reported at WSO Palau (Airai) and 0.06-inch at Koror. Despite being a “dry” week (rainfall did not reach the required 2-inch weekly minimum), Palau’s designation remains at D0-S.

Across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), observed rainfall amounts ranged from a maximum of 4.75 inches at Gilman to 0.00-inch at Nukuoro, Lukunoch (5 days), Woleai, and Kapingamarangi. Intermediate precipitation amounts in descending order include: North Fanif (4.70 inches), Yap Island (4.57 inches), Pohnpei (4.01 inches), Rumung (3.04 inches), Kosrae (2.62 inches), Ulithi (1.65 inches), and Chuuk (0.01-inch, 6 days). Rainfall data was unavailable this week at both Fananu and Pingelap. Kapingamarangi has not received any precipitation in the last few weeks and will need to be reassessed for possible deterioration next week. For now, it retains its D1-S drought designation. There were a total of 6 stations that were relatively “dry” this week: Nukuoro, Lukunoch, Woleai, Kapingamarangi, Ulithi, and Chuuk.

Considerable variation in rainfall amounts was noted this week across the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). The heaviest rainfall was reported at Majuro (5.93 inches), followed by Utirik (3.51 inches, only 4 days of data while missing Oct 9-11), Ailinglaplap (3.45 inches, 6 days), Kwajalein (2.36 inches), Jaluit (1.30 inches, 6 days), and Mili (0.04-inch, only 4 days of data while missing Oct 9-11). There was very little data to work with at Wotje this week, so it is considered missing. The two stations that were relatively “dry” this week were Jaluit and Mili.

Over the South Pacific, American Samoa experienced relatively light rainfall this drought week. Siufaga Ridge observed 1.50 inches of rain followed by the Pago Pago Airport (0.82-inch) and Toa Ridge (0.72-inch). None of the three reporting locations received the minimum weekly rainfall requirement of 2-inches to meet most water needs. Tutuila retains its D0-S drought designation this week.

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days (Oct. 15-20), the Weather Prediction Center’s (WPC) five-day quantitative precipitation forecast shows a broad area of precipitation extending from the Southwest and southern Plains northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The heaviest precipitation is forecast from central and eastern Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri, where widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches are indicated, with localized amounts exceeding 5 inches. Additional precipitation of 1 to 3 inches is forecast across portions of the central Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, with locally higher totals. Heavy precipitation is also forecast along the central Gulf Coast and offshore of Florida, while much of California, Nevada and the interior Southwest are expected to remain relatively dry.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook (Oct. 19–23) favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., including the Great Plains, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Northeast. The strongest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are centered over portions of the central Plains and Mississippi Valley, where continued warmth could increase evaporative demand and contribute to additional drying in areas that miss significant precipitation. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are favored across portions of the western U.S., particularly along the West Coast and into the Great Basin and Southwest. The outlook favors near-normal temperatures, while above-normal temperatures are favored across portions of southeastern Alaska.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook (Oct. 19–23) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the western and central U.S., including portions of the West, northern and central Plains, Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest. These areas may see additional opportunities for drought relief, particularly where recent precipitation has already improved short-term moisture conditions. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, where continued dryness could reinforce existing precipitation deficits. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across much of Alaska, including portions of the Interior and Southeast Alaska.