USDA Crop Progress - Corn Rated 65% Good to Excellent, Soybeans 65% Good to Excellent as of Sept. 1

OMAHA (DTN) -- Corn conditions held while and soybean conditions fell last week, according to USDA NASS' weekly national Crop Progress report released Tuesday.

Corn was rated 65% in good-to-excellent condition, the same as last week's report. Soybeans were rated 65% good to excellent, down 2 points from 687% the previous week.

Spring wheat was 70% harvested.

Both crops also appear to be reaching maturity ahead their five-year averages, NASS reported.

CORN

-- Crop development: Corn in the dough stage was estimated at 90%, 2 percentage points behind last year's 92% but right at the five-year average mark. Corn dented was estimated at 60%, behind last year by 2 percentage points, but 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 58%. Corn mature was pegged at 19%, which is 4 points ahead of last year's 15% and 7 points ahead of the five-year average of 13%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated 65% of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, the same as last week but still above last year's 53%. Twelve percent of the crop was rated very poor to poor, down from 13% the previous week but below 17% last year.

"That portion of the crop rated poor to very poor fell by 1 point to 12%. Illinois and Iowa are still highly rated at 71% and 77% good to excellent, respectively, with Missouri 79% good to excellent," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop development: Soybeans setting pods were estimated at 94%, the same as last year, but 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 93%. Soybeans dropping leaves were pegged at 13%, also the same as last year and ahead of the five-year average of 10%.

-- Crop condition: NASS estimated 65% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition, down 2 points from the previous week but still above last year's rating of 54% good to excellent.

"Illinois is at 68% good to excellent (up 4%), Iowa is unchanged at 77% good to excellent," Mantini said.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Harvest progress: Spring wheat harvest picked up speed last week, jumping ahead 19 percentage points to reach 70% complete as of Sunday. That brought this year's harvest progress to two points higher than last year's 68% and right at the five-year average of 70%. "North Dakota is at 61%, catching up from last week and Minnesota also accelerated to 75% harvested," Mantini said.

WINTER WHEAT

USDA also reported early progress on winter wheat planting at 2% nationally compared to 1% for the same week last year, and right at the five-year average. Washington State was 22% planted, which is 7 points above the five-year average. Colorado was 7% planted and South Dakota was 5% planted.

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THE WEEK AHEAD IN WEATHER

A front that went through late last week brought widespread areas of rain, which was beneficial in some areas like Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, but not in Minnesota or Wisconsin. But when the front went through later in the week, showers became much more spotty and missed a lot of key areas in the Southern and Eastern Corn Belt, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick

"And in some of these southern areas, the rain came too late," Baranick said. "Harvest is starting up in some areas this week with an increase over the next week or two. Maturing crops do not need the moisture and it would undoubtedly be detrimental for some."

This week is much cooler and drier for most areas. Last week's front has settled near the Gulf Coast and is bringing some needed rain for Texas, which will help with winter wheat planting in the weeks to come. Another front will sweep through the country later this week and will bring some limited showers. But most areas will remain dry and the showers that do occur are likely to be light.

"That is not a lot of help for those that need the rain, but for those that don't, it should not be too wet," Baranick said. "The front will also bring through a burst of colder air."

Models are currently calling for lows in the 40s across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend, but we could see some widespread 30s.

"I wouldn't be too shocked to see a couple of very unlucky areas reach the freezing mark or close to it," Baranick said. "If that does occur, it would be devastating for these northern areas that largely planted late due to wet ground or had slower development from a lack of summer heat. That will be something to closely watch this week."

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Dough	90	84	92	90
Corn Dented	60	46	62	58
Corn Mature	19	11	15	13
Soybeans Setting Pods	94	89	94	93
Soybeans Dropping Leaves	13	6	13	10
Spring Wheat Harvested	70	51	68	70
Cotton Setting Bolls	95	89	93	94
Cotton Bolls Opening	37	25	30	31
Sorghum Headed	95	90	92	94
Sorghum Coloring	62	48	57	59
Sorghum Mature	30	23	26	26
Sorghum Harvested	19	18	18	20
Oats Harvested	89	78	88	89
Barley Harvested	75	47	75	76
Rice Harvested	43	33	31	24

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National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	4	8	23	50	15		5	8	22	49	16		6	12	29	44	9
Soybeans	3	7	25	52	13		2	7	24	54	13		5	12	30	44	9
Sorghum	6	13	31	42	8		7	13	32	40	8		10	16	30	36	8
Cotton	12	16	32	34	6		12	16	32	34	6		23	21	23	28	5
Rice	1	3	19	62	15		-	4	17	64	15		1	5	24	55	15

Weakening Farm Income Prospects Weigh On Farmer Sentiment

In a sharp turnaround from July, farmer sentiment nose-dived in August. The August Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 13 points vs. July, leaving the index at 100, while the Index of Current Conditions fell 17 points to 83, and the Index of Futures Expectations shed 11 points to a reading of 108. Weakening farm income prospects weighed on farmer sentiment as the outlook for a bountiful fall harvest were more than offset by declining crop prices. This month’s decline in the barometer takes farmer sentiment back to the average level observed from fall 2015 to winter 2016, a period when farm incomes were declining sharply. The weakness in farmer sentiment could indicate that farmers expect this year’s farm income downturn to last for an extended period. Data collection for the August survey took place from August 12-16, 2024.

Over the last several months, farmers’ concerns about weakening commodity prices have become more evident in barometer surveys. In the August survey, producers’ concerns about commodity prices nearly eclipsed what has consistently been their top concern: high input prices. This month, 30% of respondents picked lower commodity prices as a top concern compared to 33% who chose high input costs. This was a marked departure from a year earlier when just 20% of survey respondents pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern for their farm operation. At the same time, fewer respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern. This month, 17% of respondents pointed to interest rates as a top issue, down from 24% a year ago. In a related question, two-thirds (68%) of respondents said they expect interest rates to fall during the upcoming year, while only 19% said they look for rates to rise.

The August Farm Financial Performance Index fell 9 points below a month earlier and was 14 points lower than a year ago. This month’s reading was the weakest response to the financial performance question since July 2020, when COVID-related lockdowns still dominated the headlines. Consistent with expectations for weak financial conditions, producers again signaled that the investment climate in production agriculture is also poor as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31. This month’s investment index was also 6 points lower than a year earlier and matched the index’s all-time lowest reading.

Producers’ perspective on farmland values weakened considerably in August compared to July as the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 13 points to 105. This month’s decline left the investment index 21 points below a year ago and 41 points below three years ago when the index was near its peak. The sharp turnabout in the index this month was primarily attributable to an increase in the percentage of producers who think farmland values will decline in the next year, which rose from 13% in July to 24% in August. The long-term farmland index also weakened, falling 4 points below July’s index to a reading of 142. 

Despite concerns about the farm income outlook, most farmers in our survey still say they expect farmland cash rental rates for the 2025 crop year to remain unchanged. This month, 70% of U.S. crop farmers in our survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to stay about the same, with just 16% of respondents reporting that they anticipate declining lease rates.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in August as the Ag Economy Barometer index fell 13 points compared to July. The August reading of 100 places farmer sentiment on par with sentiment in late 2015 and early 2016 when the U.S. ag economy was in the early stages of a downturn. Farmers were most pessimistic about near-term conditions, as the current index fell 17 points below a month earlier. Sentiment weakness was driven by expectations for weak farm financial performance and extended to a weak outlook for capital expenditures by farm operations. Although the short-term farmland index remained above 100, signaling that more survey respondents still expect values to rise over the next year than look for values to decline, it’s clear that farmers are less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years. Notably, the short-term farmland index posted its lowest reading since spring 2020. Despite the weakness in farmer sentiment and expectations for weak farm financial performance, 70% of crop farmers in this month’s survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain about the same in 2025 as in 2024.

Idaho And Western United States SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal (9/3)

Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region - Storage Reservoirs in the Upper Snake River (9/3)

Average daily streamflows indicated in cubic feet per second.
Reservoir levels current as of midnight on date indicated.

Upper Snake River system is at 51 % of capacity.
(Jackson Lake,Palisades, Grassy Lake,Island Park,Ririe,American Falls,LakeWalcott)
Total space available:	1977906 AF
Total storage capacity:	4045695 AF