Thursday, January 2, 2025

This Week's Drought Summary (1/2)

Precipitation fell across much of the U.S. this week, with heavier amounts (> 1 inch) falling across large portions of the Northwest U.S. and from south-central U.S. to the Ohio Valley. Coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, from Washington to northern California, reported weekly rainfall totals between 2 to 15 inches, while precipitation totals of 2 to 10 inches were reported in areas from eastern Texas to Alabama, as well as parts of the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Above-normal precipitation supported drought improvements across large portions of the South and Midwest, and in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Midwest and Southeast. Conversely, weekly precipitation totals were below normal in areas of the southwestern U.S., Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Drought and abnormal dryness were expanded or intensified in portions of the Southwest and in small pockets of the High Plains. Temperatures were above normal across much of the U.S. this week. Areas along the Northern Tier, from northern portions of the West, to the Midwest observed temperatures 10 to 25 degrees above normal. Below-normal temperatures were reported across northern portions of the Northeast, from northern New Jersey to Maine, where departures were up to 5 degrees F below normal this past week. Below-normal temperatures were also observed in small pockets of the Southeast this week.

Northeast

Precipitation fell across much of the Northeast this week, but amounts were mostly near to below normal and enough to prevent further degradations across the region. Heavier rainfall amounts (1 to 2 inches) were observed in portions of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, resulting in improvements of moderate to extreme drought in this area. Recent rainfall also justified improvements to severe drought in southern New York and in parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts, while moderate drought was improved in northern parts of West Virginia and Maine. Abnormal dryness was also improved in areas of western New York and southern West Virginia. For the week, average temperatures varied across the region, with above-normal temperatures being observed across most of the region. Below-normal temperatures were observed from western New York to West Virginia, with departures ranging from 1 to 15 degrees F below normal.

Southeast

Warmer temperatures dominated the Southeast this week, with departures ranging up to 9 degrees F above normal. Small areas located in Georgia, Virginia and along the North Carolina-Virginia and Georgia-South Carolina borders observed below-normal temperatures this week, with temperatures between 1 to 3 degrees F below normal. Weekly rainfall totals of 2 inches or more were observed across much of Alabama and in parts of northern Georgia, western North Carolina, and in southern portions of South Carolina and Florida. Extreme drought was reduced in northern Alabama while severe drought was removed from southern Alabama and trimmed in central and northern parts of the state. Moderate drought was removed from southern Florida and improved in parts of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. Large areas of abnormal dryness were improved in western North Carolina, northern Georgia, South Carolina and in southern Florida. Drought reduction and improvements were based on precipitation amounts, short-term SPI/SPEI, NDMC short-term blends, and improvements to streamflow and soil moisture data.

South

Heavy rainfall was observed across much of the South this week, with precipitation totals ranging between 1 to 8 inches above normal. Above-normal rainfall, with amounts up to 600% above normal, along with improvements shown in short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow and soil moisture data, supported widespread improvements to drought made from eastern Texas to Mississippi this week. Severe drought was removed along the Oklahoma-Texas and Louisiana-Arkansas borders, as well as from southern Mississippi, and improved in central Texas. Moderate drought was improved over large portions of Arkansas, eastern Texas, and in parts of Oklahoma, Louisiana and Mississippi. Conversely, western portions of Oklahoma and Texas observed below-normal precipitation this week. Moderate drought and abnormal dryness were expanded in small parts of western Texas. Temperatures were above normal across the entire region this week, with departures ranging between 1 to 15 degrees F above normal.

Midwest

Above-normal temperatures, with departures ranging between 5 to 20 degrees F above normal, were observed across the entire Midwest region this week, with the largest temperature departures being observed in northern Minnesota. Precipitation was reported across most of the region this week, with much of the region observing weekly rainfall totals between 200% to 600% above normal. Severe drought was removed from northern Indiana and improved in southeast Ohio, while moderate drought was improved in large portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and in parts of Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri. Below-normal precipitation was observed over western portions of Minnesota and Iowa, and in parts of northern Michigan, southeast Ohio and eastern Kentucky.

High Plains

Warm temperature dominated the High Plains this week, with departures ranging up to 20 degrees F above normal, especially along the northern portions of the region. Precipitation fell across much of the region this week, but amounts were not large enough to justify large improvement across much of the High Plains. Extreme drought was expanded in northern Nebraska, while moderate drought was expanded in southeast Kansas. Abnormal dryness was expanded in southwest Colorado, where weekly rainfall totals are 5% to 20% or normal for the week. Small areas of the region did observe heavy rainfall, where rainfall totals were more than an inch above normal. This above-normal precipitation allowed for improvements to be made in South Dakota and along the Wyoming-Colorado border. Moderate to extreme drought were improved in northern Colorado and southern Wyoming, while severe drought was improved in western South Dakota. Abnormal dryness was also improved in areas along the Wyoming-Colorado border this week.



West

Average temperatures were above normal across nearly the entire region this week, while small pockets of below-normal temperatures were observed in northern California and along the southern coast of California, where temperatures were between 1 to 3 degrees F below normal. Conversely, Montana observed temperatures ranging between 6 to 15 degrees F above normal this week. Precipitation varied across the region this week, with heavy amounts falling in northern portions, while some areas in the southern portions of the region observed no precipitation. In the north, precipitation amounts of 1 inch or greater fell across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern California, with some areas receiving up to 8 inches above normal for the week. Moderate to severe drought were improved in western Montana and eastern Idaho, while moderate drought was removed in southeast Oregon and trimmed in the northeastern part of the state. Abnormal dryness was improved in northeast Oregon and in small parts of eastern Washington and southern Idaho. In the southern part of the region, above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation resulted in expansion of drought in Arizona, California and Nevada. Extreme drought was expanded in southern Arizona, while severe drought was expanded in southern and northwestern parts of the state. Moderate drought was expanded in western and eastern Nevada, southern California and across parts of Arizona, while abnormal dryness was expanded in parts of California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico this week.



Caribbean

Puerto Rico remains drought-free this week based on recent precipitation, vegetation health and soil moisture data.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, briefly heavy downpours on December 27-28 helped to maintain drought-free conditions. During the late-December deluge, 24-hour totals of 2 to 4 inches were common across St. Thomas and St. Croix, with slightly lower amounts observed on St. John. The Vegetation Health Index (VHI) indicates lush conditions across all three major islands, especially when compared to the same time a year ago, when the territory was still emerging from drought. Groundwater reserves remain abundant, with the December 31 depth to water at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Adventure 28 Well on St. Croix approximately 18 feet closer to the surface than last year at this time. Similarly, depth to water at the Grade School 3 Well on St. Thomas was less than 2 feet on December 31, compared to more than 10 feet as recently as October 26, 2024. Year-to-date rainfall at Windswept Beach has topped 70 inches, representing the third-highest total in the last 40 years behind 76.41 inches in 2017 and 75.56 inches in 2010.

Pacific

Precipitation continues to be below normal across areas of western Alaska. Abnormal dryness was introduced into parts of the Seward Peninsula and Yukon Delta, where conditions are impacting communities.

No changes were made to drought coverage and intensity across Hawaii this past week. Drought coverage remains widespread throughout Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai.

In the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, seasonably drier weather has developed across northern areas, while abundant showers continue mainly well south of 10°N Latitude. During the drought-monitoring period ending December 31, rainfall across the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) totaled more than 5 inches in several locations, including Kosrae and Pohnpei. However, moderate drought (D1-S) persisted for Yap, FSM, where rainfall has fallen short of the 2 inches needed to meet most water requirements in each of the last 5 weeks. Additionally, abnormal dryness (D0-S) was introduced for Pingelap, FSM, where less than 2 inches of rain has fallen each of the last 4 weeks and 6 of the last 7 weeks. Meanwhile in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), abnormal dryness (D0-S) continued for Kwajalein and Wotje. December rainfall for Kwajalein totaled 6.14 inches, with only 0.70 inch falling during the last 12 days of the month. Wotje reported a fourth consecutive week with rainfall totaling 1.50 inches or less, with negligible rain falling the last 2 weeks. Farther west, mostly dry weather dominated the Marianas, with many locations reporting weekly rainfall totaling 0.50 inch or less. Abnormal dryness (D0-S) persisted across Saipan, where rainfall at the international airport totaled just 3.20 inches (88% of normal) from December 1-30. Elsewhere, neither dryness nor drought was observed across American Samoa and the Republic of Palau. An official observation site (Koror) in the Republic of Palau received December rainfall totaling more than 18 inches.

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (December 31, 2024–January 4, 2025), A low pressure system tracking from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast will spread precipitation across those regions Tuesday-Wednesday. Precipitation should fall as rain for most of the Ohio Valley to the coastal areas/lower elevations of the Northeast. Snow is likely in the higher elevation areas of the Interior Northeast like the Adirondacks and the Green and White Mountains. The Pacific Northwest will see a relative break in precipitation on Tuesday after a steady train of atmospheric rivers into the region. But by Tuesday night or Wednesday moist inflow may get renewed there and rounds of precipitation are likely to continue through late week and at times farther east into the northern Rockies. The eastern U.S. can expect one more day of above average temperatures (by 10-15F) on Tuesday, before upper troughing pushes along a series of cold fronts that gradually cool temperatures to near normal on Wednesday and gradually below normal into late week. High temperatures by Saturday are forecast to be around 10-15F below normal for the Ohio Valley to Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic while lows should be 5-10F below average. Colder than normal temperatures will also impact the north-central U.S., and lows could reach 10-15F below zero over northern North Dakota and Minnesota by Friday and/or Saturday. Meanwhile, the amplifying upper ridge over the West will promote warming, with temperatures generally 5-10F above average increasing in coverage by the second half of the week. Locally higher anomalies are likely in the Southwest and highs could reach well into the 70s. Highs of 5-15F above normal may reach into the southern High Plains by next Saturday.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid January 5–9, 2025) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the U.S., with below-normal precipitation favored in portions of the Southwest and Northeast, as well as parts of northern Alaska and on southern parts of the Big Island. Increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast for Hawaii and across much of the West and Alaska, while below-normal temperatures are likely from the northern Rockies to the East Coast, and in northern parts of Alaska.




Top 10 Ag Stories of 2024: Best of Rest

World Soybean Yield Record Broken Again; Kansas P5 Ranch Sold; Ag Census Shows Loss of Nearly 142,000 US Farms


OMAHA (DTN) -- From labor unrest on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border to record-high prices in the cattle market, more extreme weather events, the detection of H5N1 in dairy cattle for the first time, a presidential election filled with numerous twists and turns, and Congress failing to pass a new farm bill yet again, 2024 was another memorable year for agriculture.

But those stories were just the tip of the iceberg. Beyond the major events that dominated the headlines were numerous other stories that, though they may not have gotten as much attention, had a significant impact on the farming and ranching community and rural America.

In recognition of the importance of these stories to agriculture, we're presenting some of them here as part of our annual "Best of the Rest" list, in no particular order.

**

GEORGIA FARMER BREAKS WORLD SOYBEAN YIELD RECORD ... AGAIN

After becoming the world's first soybean farmer to officially exceed 200 bushels per acre (bpa) in 2023, Alex Harrell of Leesburg, Georgia, didn't rest on his laurels this past year. Instead, he went out and broke his own record.

In August 2024, he harvested a 2.5757-acre plot of irrigated soybeans that averaged 218.2856 bpa, increasing the world record yield by more than 11 bpa. "We changed up a lot because we wanted to see if we could repeat what we did [in 2023] in a different environment," Harrell told DTN. "We were in a different soil type on the opposite end of the county. We changed genetic traits. We changed herbicide traits."

Harrell planted Pioneer P49Z02E, a 4.9 relative maturity soybean, into a strip-tilled field on 30-inch rows. He increased his seeding rate from 85,000 to 110,000 seeds per acre to thicken the stand and help prevent branches heavily loaded with soybean pods from breaking.

Each Monday from emergence until the field was desiccated, Harrell took tissue samples that he used to inform his application of in-season nutrition. Foliar fertility was applied primarily using Y-drops and drones.

"There was someone out there just about every day checking on it," he said. "It's not just about checking on nutrient levels; it's also about nutrient balances."

When it comes to achieving high soybean yields, Harrell said two things are necessary: planting early and striving for large seed size.

"We were past the heavy blooming stage and in full grain-fill mode by the time those long, hot days of summer came around," he said. "That allowed us to pump up that seed size. Last year, we were about 1,660 seeds per pound, and we're somewhere in the same ballpark this year. We actually had pods busting at the seam."

**

2022 AG CENSUS SHOWS LOSS OF NEARLY 142,000 US FARMS

USDA released the results of the 2022 U.S. Agricultural Census in February, revealing significant declines in farm numbers and acreage. From 2017 to 2022, the U.S. lost nearly 142,000 farms and 20.1 million agricultural acres, with the total number of farms falling below 2 million for the first time. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack called the numbers a "wake-up call" for policymakers.

The census showed decreases across all farm size categories, including larger operations of 1,000-plus acres and smaller farms under 10 acres. Total farm acreage, including cropland and pasture, dropped to 880.1 million acres. Despite these losses, the average farm size increased to 463 acres, up 5% from 2017.

The data highlighted the concentration of agricultural sales, with just 1.4% of farms accounting for 50% of all product sales. Farm production expenses rose by 23% to $424.14 billion, with significant increases in livestock feed, fertilizer and labor costs.

Demographically, the number of producers decreased slightly to 3.374 million. The average farmer age increased to 58.1 years, emphasizing the need to attract younger individuals to agriculture.

Vilsack stressed the importance of the census in shaping agricultural policies and addressing challenges facing the sector. The data will be used to inform decision-making on USDA programs and highlight areas requiring attention in the evolving landscape of American agriculture.

**

FARMERS OVERCOME BEVY OF EMERGING PESTS IN 2024

The national average corn yield hit an all-time high in 2024, and soybeans almost did, yet hidden behind this production prowess was a battle against an army of emerging diseases and pests that increased their footprints, many going places where they'd never been seen before.

Though it is still a relative newcomer, first detected in 2015, tar spot continued to spread this season. The disease showed up early in several states and continued a steady march across the Corn Belt. In total, tar spot showed up 20 states and two Canadian provinces, according to the IPM CornPIPE map.

No cornfield was impervious. Many farmers reduced their risks in 2024 by planting hybrids that were less susceptible and applying fungicides timely. This strategy, and the lack of conditions favoring the disease, kept yield losses at bay for some. For others, losses were more significant.

While many anticipated tar spot as a potential issue in 2024, one disease farmers likely didn't expect was corn stunt, a major disease in Central and South America. In August, Extension specialists in Missouri and Oklahoma announced the first confirmed cases in those states, marking the farthest north that corn stunt had been detected at that time.

However, before the season ended, instances of the disease were found as far north as Minnesota and New York, with corn leafhoppers -- the vector for the pathogens that cause the disease -- also detected in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Though it is believed these insects cannot survive harsher winter conditions, entomologists will be monitoring for the pest throughout the winter.

Two emerging soybean pests also gained ground in 2024. Soybean gall midge -- determined to be a new pest species in 2018 -- continued to expand its geography. The Soybean Gall Midge Alert Network reported in early December that the tiny pest had been found in 14 new counties this past year, bringing the total to 178 in seven states.

Red crown rot also continued turning up in new places. Historically recognized as a southern disease, the fungal pathogen was detected in localized areas in Illinois in 2018. Additional pockets of problems have since been found in Kentucky (2021), Indiana (2022) and Missouri (2024). At present, soybean and disease specialists know of no cure for red crown rot, which can cause devastating yield losses in severe cases. The Crop Protection Network tracks the disease here:

**

EPA ROLLS OUT WORLD'S TOUGHEST EMISSION STANDARDS FOR HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency rolled out new emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles through 2032 that agriculture groups and states argue is a mandate for electric vehicles.

Though the standards are said to provide flexibility to automakers in how they reduce emissions, the rules do little to promote the use of ethanol and other biofuels.

The new rule includes delivery trucks, refuse haulers or dump trucks, public utility trucks, transit, shuttles, school buses and semi-trucks. They would have to meet lower pollutant criteria standards for 2027 through 2032.

Attorneys general in 24 states sued the Biden administration and were joined by agriculture groups in the case. Those states include Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

**

COURT STRIKES DOWN BIDEN EFFORTS TO REVERSE SMALL-REFINERY EXEMPTIONS TO RFS

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit vacated the Biden administration's reversals of 105 small-refinery exemptions to the Renewable Fuels Standard, granted by the first Trump administration.

The court's ruling was celebrated by biofuels and agriculture groups who had been fighting the Trump administration actions dating back to 2018 exemptions.

Small-refinery exemptions have been a hot-button issue for agriculture. Interest groups have estimated the exemptions have reduced biofuels demand by about 4 billion gallons.

**

CONTINUED CARBON PIPELINE FIGHTS

As Summit Carbon Solutions continued to move forward on clearing regulatory hurdles to build a carbon pipeline across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska, landowners and others continued to fight the project.

Summit's plan includes connecting 57 ethanol plants to a pipeline, to capture carbon and improve the plants' carbon footprint.

The fight continued in a variety of court venues in 2024 and included important decisions from state supreme courts and the approval of a ballot initiative in South Dakota.

**

SUPREME COURT TOSSES CHEVRON DOCTRINE, EFFECTS ON FARMS AND RANCHES

In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a key legal doctrine that could help farmers and ranchers fight federal regulations as it relates to the Clean Water Act and other statutes.

Because of the court's decision, courts will no longer be able to defer solely to a federal agency's interpretation of the law simply because a statute is ambiguous.

Chevron deference required that if statutory language is clear, agencies were required to follow the letter of the law. If wording and context in a statute is ambiguous, courts have been deferring to federal agencies' discretion.

**

FORMER IOWA AG SECRETARY NORTHEY DIES

Bill Northey, the former Iowa secretary of agriculture and longtime farm advocate from Spirit Lake, Iowa, died suddenly on Feb. 5 at age 64.

The 1981 graduate of Iowa State University most recently served as the CEO of the Agribusiness Association of Iowa (AAI), a position he held since March 2022.

Northey served as the USDA undersecretary for farm production and conservation from 2018-21. Northey was confirmed to the position by the Senate in February 2018.

He served as Iowa's ag secretary from 2007-17 before he was nominated to the USDA post by President-elect Donald Trump during his first term.

Northey has also served on the Iowa USDA Farm Service Agency state committee, was a Dickinson County soil and water conservation district commissioner and a board member of Ag Ventures Alliance.

Northey was co-founder and president of Innovative Growers LLC, a farmer-owned and farmer-managed company designed to capitalize on demand for the production of specialty grain products. On his own farm at Spirit Lake, Northey produced corn and soybeans.

"It is with great sadness that the Agribusiness Association of Iowa shares the news of the passing of CEO Bill Northey," the group said on its website. "The state of Iowa, and all of agriculture, has lost a great leader who has left his mark on future generations and will be greatly missed. Bill was a tireless advocate for agriculture and a beloved leader for the entire AAI staff and organization. As we mourn the loss of our close colleague, we also extend our prayers for his family in this difficult time."

**

KANSAS P5 RANCH GETS NEW OWNERS

In mid-January, Kansas' largest contiguous ranch, the P5 Ranch, was sold for an undisclosed amount of money in a private sale.

The ranch, located in Hamilton and Kearny counties about 24 miles west of Garden City, spans approximately 44,923 acres. While primarily pasture, it includes 2,700 acres of crop land and 17 miles of Arkansas River frontage, which supports vibrant hunting.

"Usually when we sell a property, it's either a farm, cattle operation or recreational land," said Mitch Keeley, one of the land specialists handling the sale for Whitetail Properties Real Estate, in a news release. "We often represent properties that fit one of these categories, but what's so unique about the P5 is it combines all three property types. It's very hard to find something like this in Kansas."

The ranch can support 6,500 to 8,000 head of cattle. It includes 17 irrigation pivots that the ranch used to grow alfalfa, triticale and corn. A log cabin on the ranch is also used to provide housing for sportsmen hunting the ranch's whitetail, mule deer, elk and waterfowl, which are supported by a 36-acre lake. There are also four homes for ranch employees.

"The P5 has been exceptionally well-maintained over the years with excellent fencing, new irrigation pivots and as clean of a ranch as you'll find anywhere in the Midwest," said Adam Hann, the other land specialist involved in the ranch's sale.

According to the news release, the previous owners' decision to sell was "based on not wanting to burden the next generation of ownership with the future responsibility of selling of handing off the ranch." 




This Week's Drought Summary (10/8)

Heavy to excessive rainfall impacted significant parts of the Contiguous States this past week. Amounts of 4 to locally over 8 inches of rai...